22/05/2016 Sunday Politics Wales


22/05/2016

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Leave campaigners say Turkey is on course to join

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the European Union and, if we remain in the EU,

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that will mean more criminals here and greater pressure

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The Prime Minister says it's nonsense.

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We'll have the latest on this developing row.

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This woman claims to be the voice of business -

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and that most businesses in the UK want to remain in the EU.

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But is the business case that clear cut?

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We speak to the Director General of the CBI.

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When it comes to gauging public opinion on the referendum,

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which is better: telephone polls or online polls?

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Even the pollsters are having trouble answering that one.

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And I tell you what, if I don't know,

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Later in the programme: for lark for 21 years,

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At the end of a stormy two weeks in Cardiff Bay,

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the two main protagonists will be here to tell me

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In London it's thought 400,000, wrath citizens are eligible to vote

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in the EU referendum. Which way did they tilt?

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And with me - as always - a political panel of the best

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and the brightest in the business, hopefully they do know which way

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to jump: Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh

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who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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Turkey has taken centre-stage in the referendum debate today.

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Vote Leave are launching a new poster campaign warning that

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Turkey is on course to join the EU, leaving the UK vulnerable

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to criminals, mass migration and more pressure on public services.

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The Prime Minister was asked about the claims

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on the Robert Peston programme on ITV.

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Every country has a veto, and let's be clear,

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as Boris himself said, Turkey joining the EU is not remotely on

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the cards. At the current rate of progress, this would be decades,

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literally decades, before this even had a prospect of

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happening, and even at that stage, we would be able to say no.

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Well, that was David Cameron this morning.

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But here's what he had to say in a speech in Istanbul in 2010.

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But here's what he had to say in a speech in Ankara in 2010.

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It makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be

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frustrated. My view is clear. I believe it is wrong to say that

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Turkey can guard the camp, but not be allowed to sit in the tent. So

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why will remain your strongest possible advocate for EU membership

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and for greater influence at the top possible advocate for EU membership

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table of European diplomacy. The Prime Minister six years ago after

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becoming Prime Minister. Is it a proper issue for this

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referendum or is it a red Is it a proper issue for this

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the Leave campaign will be delighted that we

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the Leave campaign will be delighted about Turkey, you

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image of more migration, uncontrolled immigration from

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image of more migration, poorer countries so it is a

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image of more migration, win. I am not sure that the Prime

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Minister is right to engage in this one. But he has been called about

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this from someone whose judgment he also calls into question. But is a

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strange thing, his own Armed also calls into question. But is a

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Minister. The also calls into question. But is a

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right to say we have a veto, every EU member has a veto in new members,

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but if the Prime Minister is in favour of Turkey joining,

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but if the Prime Minister is in said he was in Ankara, then the veto

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does not matter? Absolutely. What a great clip that was

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does not matter? Absolutely. What a Minister in 2010, when he set out

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does not matter? Absolutely. What a Ray clearly what his position is. He

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supports Turkey joining the EU in whatever time frame that may be. It

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does not do for the Prime Minister to say we have a veto. The question

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is, will you use that veto? If to say we have a veto. The question

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Turkey, that is big news hear it? It would be a big U-turn.

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It could be moot, couldn't it? There is no prospect of Turkey joining in

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the future, is there? The telling thing about this conversation

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the future, is there? The telling are focusing on our veto and the

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veto possessed by all existing EU members and not focusing

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veto possessed by all existing EU itself. Is that country as keen on

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veto possessed by all existing EU change and internal politics in

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Turkey suggests they are less keen on membership or less keen on doing

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the things necessary to successfully apply for EU mentorship than they

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were a while ago. I think for reasons on the Turkish side and on

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the European side, it will not happen until I am a very old man.

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But it happen until I am a very old man.

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Leave to play up this issue and every day we talk about migration is

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a day we're not spending talking about the economy and I think that

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is their only route about the economy and I think that

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next year, who are not going to agree to Turkey joining any

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next year, who are not going to soon. And if you were to be fair to

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the prime and Vista, you would say he made that speech in 2010

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the prime and Vista, you would say Ankara, me and a whole load of

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the prime and Vista, you would say president. He was very

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the prime and Vista, you would say up to President

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the prime and Vista, you would say because he wanted more trade. That

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was pre-migration crisis. That has changed everything

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was pre-migration crisis. That has to do a 180 degrees U-turn on this

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issue. We will see as the day develops.

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So, the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens, says the health

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Two of his predecessors have also written a joint article

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in the Sunday Times saying that they think,

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for the NHS at least, staying in the EU is

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Mr Stevens was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning.

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When Mark Carney says that the risk of a slowdown in economic growth,

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possibly a recession, if we end up exiting the EU,

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if Mark Carney is right, then that is a severe concern

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for the National Health Service, because it would be very dangerous

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if at precisely the moment the NHS is going to need extra funding,

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they argue that remaining in the EU will place further strain on the NHS

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due to continued free movement of people and the accession

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The Department of Health estimates that the cost to the NHS in England

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from visitors and non-permanent residents who come from

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the European economic area, that is the EU plus Iceland,

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Lichtenstein and Norway, is around ?340 million a year.

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To put that in context, the total annual expenditure

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in England's NHS was ?113 billion in 2014-15.

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There are around 3 million people from other EU countries resident

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in the UK and all are entitled to use NHS services.

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All those would be entitled to stay in the UK, even if we were to leave

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the EU, due to the rights under the Vienna Convention.

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In 2015, around 257,000 EU nationals migrated to the UK.

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But whether that number would come down if we vote to leave depends

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on the deal the UK strikes with the EU following an exit.

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NHS England says the total number of staff coming from EU countries

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was just over 53,000, or 4.6% of the total NHS workforce.

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A total of 9% of NHS England's hospital doctors, 6% of its nurses

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and health visitors, come from other EU countries,

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however, all would be entitled to stay in the event of a vote

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to leave, and without knowing what any future deal might be,

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it is impossible to know if there would be any impact

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A one-time pro-European Foreign Secretary, he is now

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campaigning for the UK to leave the European Union.

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Good morning, David Owen. Let me come straight to the remarks by the

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man currently running the NHS in England, Simon Stevens. He said it

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would be better for the NHS if we remain in the EU. What is your

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response? Let's be quite clear. Simon Stevens is the manager of the

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NHS, which is currently ?3 billion in debt. This man has presided now

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for a sufficient time to judge his management skills. In almost every

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part of the National Health Service, there is an acute crisis. He spent

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ten years in America, with an American health care company,

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effectively arguing for the TTIP, this treaty between America and the

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European Union, which could be introduced, and an assessment makes

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it very clear that TTIP will be very damaging to the National Health

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Service, if it is drafted in the way that it is. Simon Stevens should

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stick to his Lee which is to manage the health service more effectively.

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He is an individual, he has a view on the European Union which is fine,

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but his basic job is to look after the NHS, and at the moment he is

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making a very considerable mess of. It is not just Simon Stevens, two of

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his predecessors say staying in the EU is the preferable option.

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Identifying, if there is any danger to the NHS, it is in staying in,

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with all the elements of the NHS which are now involved with the EU.

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-- I don't think. For the first 20 years of our membership, with the

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common market, we had no involvement with the NHS at all. Now the NHS

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procurement policy, the NHS competition policy is all impact in,

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because we have started to Mark ties the NHS in 2002 under Labour. It

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continued under the coalition with the Liberal Democrats of this

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present Conservative government, and it has continued under this

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Conservative government. If you treat health like water or

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electricity or gas, as a utility, and you treat them all as customers,

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then you will be under market pressures, and the problem with the

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NHS is we lost what it was, it fortunately still is in Wales,

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Scotland and Northern Ireland, but in England it is a marker ties to

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health service modelling itself on the United States of America. If you

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wanted to make changes, you would be wiser to stick to Germany or France,

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not go the United States model. Let me put a point to you. Michael Gove,

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part of the Leave campaign, he says the NHS could be overwhelmed by

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continued migration if we stay in the EU. He predicts an extra 5

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million plus by 2030. These predictions suggest that Turkey,

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Macedonia and Albania all join the EU by 2020. That is not on the

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cards, is it? Let's be clear about your programme so far and analyse

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what has been said already. It is not the Prime Minister what he said

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in Istanbul, the Prime Minister nine weeks ago signed up to the European

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Council meeting on the 18th of March, and he said, to re-energise

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the accession process for Turkey to join the EU, and to make preparatory

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work for the opening of other chapters will continue at an

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accelerating pace. This is a Prime Minister who is getting used to

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saying one thing one time, another thing another. Nine weeks ago, we

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were committed to increasing the speed of entry for Turkey into the

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European Union. I am passionate about keeping Turkey inside Nato,

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and with one foot in the EU and with one foot in the Middle East. Why?

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Because Turkey is essentially important country, as a member of

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Nato in dealing with Isil, Syria, Iraq and many other problems around

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the world. But you will not make it by bringing them prematurely into

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the European Union. What we should be doing is encouraging them to come

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into the single market which has non-EU countries associated, but

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without this issue of freedom of movement of Labour. You are Foreign

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Secretary... Let me ask this question. You must surely know, that

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Turkey's chances of joining the EU in the foreseeable future are

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remote. Isn't that the reality? No, I think what was said by your

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commentator earlier in the programmers that has been a change

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of foreign policy. If the Prime Minister commits nine weeks ago to

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speeding up Turkey's membership, and then does not deliver on it, what

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will be the consequences? Turkey will feel they have been lied to or

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rejected by the Europeans and they will, in my view, come out of Nato

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with very profound consequences. At the moment, let's treat Turkey with

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respect, let's try and ensure they make the necessary changes on human

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rights and in many other areas. There are a lot of worrying aspects

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about Turkish policy, but mention above the European Union in my view

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is not the issue. It is how to make them more committed to Europe. Don't

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avoid this question. If we are in the European Union, we are committed

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to freedom of movement of Labour in every aspect of EU membership. That

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is a problem. David Owen, thank you, we will have to leave it there.

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The Confederation Of British Industry calls itself

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the "voice of business", claiming to speak on behalf

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of 190,000 businesses, employing up to 7 million people.

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And according to the CBI, British businesses overwhelmingly

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back the idea of remaining in the EU.

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What's more, they've been encouraging their members to talk

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to staff about the referendum to give them "the choice to hear

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what impact a Brexit would have on company growth,

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their jobs and their local community".

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As you can imagine, Leave campaigners are not amused.

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The chair of the Vote Leave business council, John Longworth,

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a former director-general of the British Chambers Of Commerce,

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said the call was an "anti-democratic abuse of power

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He added: "It's highly regrettable to see big corporate bosses plotting

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to gang up on their staff, and lecture them on how to vote."

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Well, we're joined now by the director

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general of the CBI, Carolyn Fairbairn.

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Welcome to the programme. Good morning. If big business told its

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workers how to vote in a general election, there would be broad, so

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why are you encouraging your members to warn their workers about the

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dangers of Brexit? That is not what we have said. We have said that

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people working today in economy want to hear from their employers about

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what it means on either side of the debate. That is not what you said,

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you said what impact Brexit would have on growth, jobs and the local

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community. Positive for negative. You did not say that? It is clear

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this is not about warning anybody. This is about the questions that

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people are now asking about what it means for them. We were clean about

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that. Most of your members, you claim, are in favour of staying in

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the European Union. The message going out to the workforce will be

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overwhelmingly about remaining in the EU. The main thing is that

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people who are going to vote on June 23 have as good an understanding as

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they possibly can about what it means for their jobs, families and

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communities. That was the key message, nothing about telling

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people how to vote. We learned this week that one of your members,

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Circle, was planning uproar EU campaign with the Prime Minister,

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even before the renegotiations were finished. With the CBI or any of

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your members have similar discussions with the government? To

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my knowledge, no. The conversations that businesses, universities, all

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parts of our society have with government go on every day. Were you

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planning the pro-union-mac campaign with the government even before the

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renegotiations? No. But Circle was? No. Everything the CBI has done is a

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result of the things we have done and a half of our members. Circle

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has contracts with the government worth several million pounds. The

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taxpayer pays for that. Its boss was offering to help the Prime Minister

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do what he could to help keep Britain in the EU. It was a behind

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closed doors stitch up between big government and big business, wasn't

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it? The important thing is to understand what businesses across

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the country of all sizes are seeing. You're focusing on one company. What

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we are seeing is that the majority of businesses want to stay in

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we are seeing is that the majority European Union. I understand that. I

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am asking you if the way this company has

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am asking you if the way this smells of a

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am asking you if the way this think this is a stitch up. It is

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am asking you if the way this on issues of jobs,

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trading with the European Union trading with the European Union

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clearly heard. The voice of this company was certainly clearly heard.

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clearly heard. The voice of this He saw the Prime Minister, Mr

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Soames. This is what he did in the follow-up letter. He spoke about

:20:04.:20:06.

backing the prime and is to's campaign to keep us in the EU. This

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is even though the renegotiations were not finished. He went on to

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lobby for business. He said... He wants more business at the same

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lobby for business. He said... He time. It really does add to the

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sense that this is big business feathering its own nest. That is not

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what is going on. There are conversations all the time. Why he

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wise to do that, to lobby for more business at the same time as

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lobbying to stay in the EU? I think there are conversations happening

2:52:322:52:31

all the time. Is that conversation appropriate? Those are questions for

2:52:322:52:31

other people. The CBI represents mainly businesses across the UK and

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Europe picking on one. The important thing is the voices of the many are

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heard in this. Are they heard? You give the impression you like the EU

2:52:322:52:31

because it is a one-stop club for big business. There are 30,000

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lobbyists in Brussels, most of them are doing for the interests of your

2:52:322:52:31

kind of members, the business. Ordinary folk do not get a look in?

2:52:322:52:31

I do not think that is true. We have had 20 business surveys since the

2:52:322:52:31

beginning of the year, for all different sizes of business, and it

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is not unanimous, but they are all seeing broadly the same thing. We

2:52:322:52:31

have had the creative industries Forum coming out with the survey.

2:52:322:52:31

93%, because they are big exporters. This is not just big business. It is

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all sizes of business. Let's look at how the EU is good for your members

2:52:322:52:31

but not necessarily the rest of us. The European Court of Justice has

2:52:322:52:31

forced Her Majesty is Customs and revenue to hand back almost ?8

2:52:322:52:31

billion in tax paid by big British companies, overruling tax laws made

2:52:322:52:31

by our government and our Parliament. That is good for big

2:52:322:52:31

business but not public services? There are areas where we share

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sovereignty, in order to have a level playing field across Europe

2:52:322:52:31

for businesses overall. We are not always going to like all of the

2:52:322:52:31

rules. It is a question of whether the benefits outweigh the costs. The

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benefits to your members are clear, they are paying a billion less in

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tax. The independent office of budget responsibility expected HMRC

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to pay another 8 billion back by the end of the decade. This is about

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lowering tax regimes and not allowing HMRC to get the proper tax.

2:52:322:52:31

That is not fear to ordinary people? To be clear, the CBI can businesses

2:52:322:52:31

overall do not support aggressive tax avoidance. We support the moves

2:52:322:52:31

that have been taken at the OECD level to sort this out. This is not

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something we support. Your members will be 16 billion better off.

2:52:322:52:31

British schools, hospitals, public services, will be 16 billion worse

2:52:322:52:31

off. If the HMRC goes down in all these cases, we could be 40 billion

2:52:322:52:31

worse off. Good for big business, but not local hospitals? I do not

2:52:322:52:31

know the exact details of those numbers, but I would say that the

2:52:322:52:31

moves to improve tax policy are absolutely supported by members. The

2:52:322:52:31

CBI has been wrong about Britain in the EU in the past. Why should we

2:52:322:52:31

listen to you now? This is becoming a distraction. You are right that

2:52:322:52:31

when the euro was debated at the end of the 1980s, in principle, the CBI

2:52:322:52:31

had a principle of support with caveats. You supported the principle

2:52:322:52:31

of the European exchange mechanism. That ended in recession. Many people

2:52:322:52:31

lost their homes and jobs. You then became enthusiastic about UK

2:52:322:52:31

membership of the monetary union, the euro. I ask again, if you were

2:52:322:52:31

wrong then, why should we listen to you now? Two important points, if

2:52:322:52:31

you had continued to scroll down, you would seem that there were

2:52:322:52:31

caveats, conditions that had to be met. Conditions around harmonisation

2:52:322:52:31

of inflation and the economy. They were never met. By 2000 the CBI had

2:52:322:52:31

moved its position to neutral. The discussion we are having now is

2:52:322:52:31

about something very different. It is about the experience that we as

2:52:322:52:31

an economy have had the European Union for 43 years. We have thrived.

2:52:322:52:31

We have gone from being the sick man of Europe to being the strong man.

2:52:322:52:31

His Mrs are doing well. The benefit from being in a single market. The

2:52:322:52:31

euro was about something which people were imagining in the future,

2:52:322:52:31

a different debate. Let's come to the current debate. We saw your

2:52:322:52:31

stance on the euro then. You know think we would be better off if we

2:52:322:52:31

remain. That is the clear fight -- the clear-cut view of the CBI. You

2:52:322:52:31

commissioned an organisation to assess the impact of leaving the EU.

2:52:322:52:31

That is the result of the survey. If we remain, they think the economy

2:52:322:52:31

will grow by 41% by 2030. Even if we were to come out, the economy would

2:52:322:52:31

still grow by 39%, even if we did not have any free trade against, it

2:52:322:52:31

would grow by 36%. It is hardly game changing either way? We have

2:52:322:52:31

deliberately taken optimistic, balance and areas of the future.

2:52:322:52:31

You're right, economies recover and adapt. You have not shown the

2:52:322:52:31

short-term impact of several years of uncertainty. What we believe, and

2:52:322:52:31

many others believe as well, is there could be significant

2:52:322:52:31

short-term impacts, no sunlit uplands. You can get to 39%. Your

2:52:322:52:31

own study shows are economy would be almost 40% bigger by 2030, even if

2:52:322:52:31

we were to leave. That is if we do a trade deal with the US, if we are

2:52:322:52:31

able to form new relationships with the EU. These are optimistic

2:52:322:52:31

assumptions. Take the non-optimistic on, the World Trade Organisation. We

2:52:322:52:31

just trade on existing rules. It is 36%, it is still a massive rise. Of

2:52:322:52:31

course we would continue to grow. No one has ever said we would not

2:52:322:52:31

continue to grow. But will we be more prosperous? We would be 36%

2:52:322:52:31

more prosperous. In the short-term, by 2020, we estimate there would be

2:52:322:52:31

a million fewer jobs and 4-5% hate to GDP. Do we want to do that to

2:52:322:52:31

school leavers? We've just come out of recession. You accept that the

2:52:322:52:31

difference is not massive? It is entirely possible the economy would

2:52:322:52:31

adapt. But only with significant short-term impact, and particularly

2:52:322:52:31

an impact on the next generation of school leavers. The CBI claims that

2:52:322:52:31

each household benefits to the tune of six -- ?3000 a year. Observers

2:52:322:52:31

have condemned that as a dishonest figure. Do you stand by it? We do.

2:52:322:52:31

It was a literature sturdy of existing studies. We wanted to put

2:52:322:52:31

together a figure that was easy to understand. -- literature study.

2:52:322:52:31

Estimates like that are difficult to do. There was a range good around

2:52:322:52:31

it. To be clear, standards of living have doubled. That is since the UK

2:52:322:52:31

joined the European Union. They have gone from ?20,000 household income

2:52:322:52:31

to about ?40,000. We are seeing a proportion of that has been a result

2:52:322:52:31

of membership of the European Union, and independent studies would

2:52:322:52:31

support that. You did no original research for this at all. We never

2:52:322:52:31

claimed to. I have explained that to our viewers. You simply did a survey

2:52:322:52:31

of research papers. But when you look, you cherry picked the research

2:52:322:52:31

papers that had pro-union-mac inclusions. That is not true. I have

2:52:322:52:31

got the ones that you did not use, you omitted the IUD, you omitted the

2:52:322:52:31

National Institute for economic and social research. Even omitted the US

2:52:322:52:31

Trade Commission survey of what it meant, or to get this ?3000 figure.

2:52:322:52:31

You know tell me it is not accurate. That is not true. The evaluation we

2:52:322:52:31

did of the different surveys, we omitted as many on one side as the

2:52:322:52:31

other. There is a 20 page paper on this which anyone can go and read.

2:52:322:52:31

It sets out the methodology accurately. You seem to be biased

2:52:322:52:31

against those that did not come to the conclusion you want. Channel 4's

2:52:322:52:31

respected fact checked included, the figure is not based on any real

2:52:322:52:31

evidence. The chairman of the Treasury Select Committee described

2:52:322:52:31

it as a scandalous misuse of data and intellectually miss honest. We

2:52:322:52:31

went to him and we set out the facts. I do not think he had read

2:52:322:52:31

the paper. It is not intended to be anything other than an assessment of

2:52:322:52:31

consensus views over the last ten years. You did not include other

2:52:322:52:31

papers. The important thing is to be focusing on what this would mean for

2:52:322:52:31

the decision for the country. You're telling people that households would

2:52:322:52:31

be ?3000 a year worse off if we were to leave? That is not what we are

2:52:322:52:31

saying. Are you saying that we are ?3000 better off by remaining? As a

2:52:322:52:31

result of having joined, about 15% of the increase in living standards

2:52:322:52:31

over the time since joining is a result of being part of the European

2:52:322:52:31

Union. That is a reasonable thing to have said. Is the CBI still keen on

2:52:322:52:31

principle to join the euro? Absolutely not.

2:52:322:52:31

Would you welcome a further expansion of the EU to include the

2:52:322:52:31

five countries already in the queue? I think it has to depend on the

2:52:322:52:31

conditions at the time. The thing that is clear is we have a sovereign

2:52:322:52:31

choice over those additional countries. Turkey is a huge market,

2:52:322:52:31

it could be good for British business, would you welcome it? We

2:52:322:52:31

have not had that discussion with our members. We would have a

2:52:322:52:31

discussion at that time and have a point of view at that time. The CBI

2:52:322:52:31

welcomed both the Nice Treaty and Lisbon Treaty. Would you welcome a

2:52:322:52:31

further transfer of powers if we voted to remain? No. I think one

2:52:322:52:31

thing which is clear is we pool sovereignty when it is in the

2:52:322:52:31

benefits of our economy and we don't wear it is not. I would say one

2:52:322:52:31

thing, in terms of the opt out from the working Time directive, a very

2:52:322:52:31

important part of our special arrangement, if you like, of the

2:52:322:52:31

European Union, the CBI was fully part of and helped to negotiate.

2:52:322:52:31

Thank you. Depending on which polls you look

2:52:322:52:31

at, Britain is either scoffing at the idea of leaving the EU

2:52:322:52:31

or it's marching swiftly One telephone poll this week gave

2:52:322:52:31

Remain an eight point lead. An online poll, meanwhile,

2:52:322:52:31

gave it to Leave by four points. The problem is that both

2:52:322:52:31

those polls were done Our society and our electorate

2:52:322:52:31

is made up of unique individuals, every one of them different and yet

2:52:322:52:31

they share many attributes: gender, age, race, religion,

2:52:322:52:31

economic background, education, political views,

2:52:322:52:31

and social attitudes. Pollsters, therefore,

2:52:322:52:31

can only ever try to tell us terms of a specific question,

2:52:322:52:31

but it's only ever going to be a snapshot of wildly

2:52:322:52:31

interpretable data. That snapshot is simply a moment

2:52:322:52:31

in time, and is always, inevitably, slightly inaccurate

2:52:322:52:31

to varying degrees, and what makes

2:52:322:52:31

political polling even harder is it is like trying to

2:52:322:52:31

hit a moving target from a moving platform

2:52:322:52:31

in the And you would think in this EU

2:52:322:52:31

referendum the simplicity of the question would help,

2:52:322:52:31

should we leave It makes the whole thing

2:52:322:52:31

much more complicated. The problem is a slew of polls

2:52:322:52:31

giving very different signals. Given the problems

2:52:322:52:31

pollsters had getting the general election right, and some

2:52:322:52:31

of them didn't, this matters. Some have it neck and neck,

2:52:322:52:31

some Remain ahead, others ahead It is a minefield in

2:52:322:52:31

terms of working out When I apply different technical

2:52:322:52:31

methods to my raw data, I can move the Remain or Leave lead

2:52:322:52:31

in both directions. I tell you what, if I do not

2:52:322:52:31

know having done this opinion polling lark for 21 years,

2:52:322:52:31

I am not sure who does. Some of this is down to how

2:52:322:52:31

the polls are done, how they get a truly

2:52:322:52:31

representative sample of society in the first place,

2:52:322:52:31

either by phone or online panels. Which is best is a bone

2:52:322:52:31

of contention that in recent days has even

2:52:322:52:31

spilt onto social media, The problem is it has become

2:52:322:52:31

harder and harder to get Online samples are by their nature

2:52:322:52:31

self-selecting so have biases Phone samples used to be

2:52:322:52:31

considered far more representative, but in recent years,

2:52:322:52:31

the response rates to phone polls have dropped so low it is hard

2:52:322:52:31

now to consider them to be So both modes have an element

2:52:322:52:31

of self-selection. Can I ask you a few questions about

2:52:322:52:31

about yourself? Would you say you are likely to vote

2:52:322:52:31

or will definitely vote? Fewer of us use landlines

2:52:322:52:31

or want to be cold called, thus more calls then ever before

2:52:322:52:31

have to be made just to get But you do avoid those who,

2:52:322:52:31

with online polling, And phone contact through

2:52:322:52:31

persistence is better at eventually reaching those who are

2:52:322:52:31

harder to get hold of. Would it be all right

2:52:322:52:31

if we call you back later? There is a growing narrative

2:52:322:52:31

amongst some pollsters that phone polling

2:52:322:52:31

is probably the more accurate, which,

2:52:322:52:31

given recent phone polling We look at samples and try to check

2:52:322:52:31

them to see we have the right number of people who vote,

2:52:322:52:31

do we believe that all the people

2:52:322:52:31

in our sample who tell us they're going to vote actually

2:52:322:52:31

will, are we missing people who really just do not care

2:52:322:52:31

about the referendum referendum and aren't going to vote,

2:52:322:52:31

are we missing the great unwashed who do

2:52:322:52:31

not have degrees? All those things,

2:52:322:52:31

when we make adjustments for all of those things, Remain is

2:52:322:52:31

still ahead. We would have to be very,

2:52:322:52:31

very wrong indeed for Remain, at the moment, on the

2:52:322:52:31

polling so far, not to win this Online pollsters, who use panels

2:52:322:52:31

of signed up people, are perhaps not surprisingly

2:52:322:52:31

pointing to weaknesses So much so that the online pollsters

2:52:322:52:31

YouGov have conducted some phone polling

2:52:322:52:31

about phone polling. What we found from that comparison,

2:52:322:52:31

both to the national picture and to our online polls,

2:52:322:52:31

was that telephone polls were underestimating the people

2:52:322:52:31

who are not university educated, and that is

2:52:322:52:31

hugely important in the EU referendum because we know

2:52:322:52:31

that is one of the great social cleavages, in other words,

2:52:322:52:31

one of the great things that divides So phone polls are missing

2:52:322:52:31

potential Leave voters. Online are accused

2:52:322:52:31

of overstating them, there are two other that vital:

2:52:322:52:31

are are you going to vote? Turnout will be

2:52:322:52:31

crucial on June 23rd. The higher it is the more it favours

2:52:322:52:31

Remain, and what happens when the mass of "don't

2:52:322:52:31

knows" make up their mind? With more questions and mixed

2:52:322:52:31

answers, and four weeks to go,

2:52:322:52:31

most pollsters might reasonably fear

2:52:322:52:31

the result of a poll that asked us all,

2:52:322:52:31

"Do pollsters really have a It's just gone 11.35,

2:52:322:52:31

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

2:52:322:52:31

in Scotland who leave us now It's just gone 11.35,

2:52:322:52:31

you're watching the Sunday Politics. Hello and welcome to

2:52:322:52:31

the Sunday Politics Wales. Well, a fortnight after the election

2:52:322:52:31

we finally have a new And Carwyn Jones had a few

2:52:322:52:31

surprises up his sleeve We'll be hearing from

2:52:322:52:31

the First Minister in a moment, and the Plaid leader Leanne Wood

2:52:322:52:31

will be here live. First, Cemlyn Davies

2:52:322:52:31

on the machinations of the past week in Cardiff Bay's very

2:52:322:52:31

own House of Cards. The past couple of weeks

2:52:322:52:31

in Cardiff Bay have been like an episode

2:52:322:52:31

of a tense political drama. We have had theatre,

2:52:322:52:31

intrigue and suspense. Dealt a tricky hand after that

2:52:322:52:31

unexpected tied vote delayed the nomination of

2:52:322:52:31

a First Minister, Labour's Carwyn Jones

2:52:322:52:31

was forced to rethink and But by Thursday he had successfully

2:52:322:52:31

navigated his way back into office and played that card,

2:52:322:52:31

we suspected was up his sleeve, inviting the only remaining

2:52:322:52:31

Lib Dem Assembly Member to his Cabinet table as

2:52:322:52:31

Education Secretary. A special adviser to former

2:52:322:52:31

First Minister Rhodri Morgan, Paul Griffiths helped oversee

2:52:322:52:31

two coalition deals. He has been watching Carwyn Jones's

2:52:322:52:31

response to recent Carwyn will have been under

2:52:322:52:31

significant pressure and will have been working very, very hard

2:52:322:52:31

with people around him to test out what is possible and what can be

2:52:322:52:31

gained and how a government can Back in 2007, Rhodri Morgan had

2:52:322:52:31

a heart attack during this period. It might have been

2:52:322:52:31

entirely coincidental. But the pressure that it puts

2:52:322:52:31

on all the individuals involved, given the fact you have been

2:52:322:52:31

through many months of hard campaigning, to actually come

2:52:322:52:31

then to new relationships and new understandings with different

2:52:322:52:31

people, it is enormous pressure. Kirsty Williams's appointment

2:52:322:52:31

as Education Secretary was certainly a bold move by Carwyn Jones,

2:52:322:52:31

but does it make political sense? Since the election, Kirsty's

2:52:322:52:31

position has been more powerful than the maths imply

2:52:322:52:31

because of the fractions From her point of view

2:52:322:52:31

and from a Liberal Democrat point of view, rather than

2:52:322:52:31

the decision echoing the Coalition Government in the UK from 2010,

2:52:322:52:31

actually the Liberal Democrats in Wales, you could argue,

2:52:322:52:31

had not a lot left to lose. In previous, more formal coalition

2:52:322:52:31

agreements, Labour first ministers have been able to offer portfolios

2:52:322:52:31

which sounded quite grand but were not of huge

2:52:322:52:31

influence within government. Yet, what Kirsty Williams has got

2:52:322:52:31

is, second to health, probably the biggest

2:52:322:52:31

spending portfolio with one of the bigger sets of challenges

2:52:322:52:31

in Welsh Government. Now as the credits roll on this

2:52:322:52:31

opening programme, we are left wondering what more

2:52:322:52:31

we can expect from the How significant will recent events

2:52:322:52:31

prove to be and what lessons can In the long-term this

2:52:322:52:31

will probably be It was a bit of drama

2:52:322:52:31

last week when we had to wait to see who our

2:52:322:52:31

new First Minister would be. But now things have been

2:52:322:52:31

settled between Plaid Cymru and Labour, I think

2:52:322:52:31

we will get back to normal Even with Kirsty Williams

2:52:322:52:31

in the cabinet, it is still a The relationship in particular with

2:52:322:52:31

Plaid Cymru will need to be worked That is the key point,

2:52:322:52:31

Carwyn Jones does still lack a majority and his government will

2:52:322:52:31

come under pressure at some point. But we now know there

2:52:322:52:31

will be several changes. Speaking on the Sunday Supplement

2:52:322:52:31

programme this morning, the First Minister Carwyn Jones said

2:52:322:52:31

that the ban on e-cigs When I spoke to Carwyn Jones just

2:52:322:52:31

before we came on air It is clear there isn't

2:52:322:52:31

a majority in the Assembly There's no point running

2:52:322:52:31

into a brick wall so it is important we get a public health bill

2:52:322:52:31

through that will command support Are you disappointed you won't to be

2:52:322:52:31

able to press ahead with that? Of course, but we have to recognise

2:52:322:52:31

reality and that there are many aspects to the public health bill

2:52:322:52:31

that are important and it is Looking again at one of the other

2:52:322:52:31

issues you have rolled back on this morning,

2:52:322:52:31

changes to local government, the numbers

2:52:322:52:31

of councils we have in Wales. There was talk of taking it down

2:52:322:52:31

to eight or nine councils. You also think that

2:52:322:52:31

is no longer a goer? I don't think the map

2:52:322:52:31

we have published before the election

2:52:322:52:31

will command support What is important

2:52:322:52:31

is everybody agrees that there has to be

2:52:322:52:31

a reorganisation of local government The question is, there's no point

2:52:322:52:31

of leaving things as they are for I want to discuss this

2:52:322:52:31

with other parties to Everybody accepts

2:52:322:52:31

there has to be change. Is this a reflection of a broader

2:52:322:52:31

change in how you are going to be going about

2:52:322:52:31

politics in the Senedd? You were saying last week no one

2:52:322:52:31

party has a monopoly on good ideas, you need to reach

2:52:322:52:31

out to other parties. Is this how it is going to be

2:52:322:52:31

for the next few months? There has never been

2:52:322:52:31

a government in Wales with a majority, there has always

2:52:322:52:31

been the need to work with other You recognise the arithmetic

2:52:322:52:31

and we will continue to look to find common ground

2:52:322:52:31

with other parties. There's no point being tribal,

2:52:322:52:31

for tribalism sake. People out there want to see good

2:52:322:52:31

government in Wales and they want to see

2:52:322:52:31

parties working together. I don't see that as a weakness,

2:52:322:52:31

I see that as a sign of One element of this new policy

2:52:322:52:31

is your invitation to bring in Kirsty Williams into the Cabinet,

2:52:322:52:31

now ratified from her party's point To what extent will

2:52:322:52:31

she be considered a To what extent will

2:52:322:52:31

she have the odd pass where she doesn't have to fully

2:52:322:52:31

support the government's programme? She is a full part of the Cabinet,

2:52:322:52:31

clearly there is collected responsibility, but Kirsty and I

2:52:322:52:31

will be meeting every week to work through the issues to make sure

2:52:322:52:31

we get to a point of agreement. It isn't the case that she has do

2:52:322:52:31

whatever she is told. She is not a member

2:52:322:52:31

of Welsh Labour, she is a member of the Welsh

2:52:322:52:31

Liberal Democrats. But will she be allowed

2:52:322:52:31

to vote against some of the What we need is to make sure

2:52:322:52:31

that we have Cabinet We have been here before,

2:52:322:52:31

we have coalitions in the past... But we have had a clear

2:52:322:52:31

programme of government then. The issues have been

2:52:322:52:31

dealt with pretty easily. Issues arise in the course of five

2:52:322:52:31

years that you don't anticipate. But what about, for example,

2:52:322:52:31

in her area, education, will she have free reign

2:52:322:52:31

on education policies or will there be a discussion

2:52:322:52:31

there between you and her as well? There will be discussions

2:52:322:52:31

to make sure nothing is happening that is outside

2:52:322:52:31

of either party 's manifesto. We have published common

2:52:322:52:31

priorities for education. She will be a very good

2:52:322:52:31

Education Minister. The priorities that we have laid

2:52:322:52:31

out are shared by both parties. Let me give you an example

2:52:322:52:31

where that isn't the case. The Lib Dems had

2:52:322:52:31

a manifesto commitment to abolish these regional consortia,

2:52:322:52:31

the four or five consortia throughout Wales to drive up

2:52:322:52:31

standards in schools, she said In the past, your education

2:52:322:52:31

ministers have said, these It is clear to me the consortia

2:52:322:52:31

made a huge difference. Before that, the LEA's were not

2:52:322:52:31

delivering consistently across We had one council, Anglesey,

2:52:322:52:31

I had to be taken over Kirsty will look at

2:52:322:52:31

what needs to be done. What she needs to do and what she

2:52:322:52:31

understands is to make sure we continue moving in

2:52:322:52:31

the right direction. In fairness, I have heard

2:52:322:52:31

to say that this morning. What of this issue of

2:52:322:52:31

smaller class sizes? She says that is ?40 million over

2:52:322:52:31

the next five years. Are you happy to spend

2:52:322:52:31

all that money on something which, in the past, education

2:52:322:52:31

ministers from the Labour government have said, it is not the answer

2:52:322:52:31

to all the problems. Bear in mind one of our

2:52:322:52:31

manifesto commitments was to set aside an extra ?100

2:52:322:52:31

million pot for education. We are not in a position

2:52:322:52:31

where we are at odds with We will see how that manifesto

2:52:322:52:31

commitment will fit in It has been quite clear

2:52:322:52:31

we have agreed that one of her priorities is to reduce

2:52:322:52:31

infant class sizes to 25 and under. We have to be careful to how it's

2:52:322:52:31

done so local authorities and We have no difficulty

2:52:322:52:31

with that objective. The other element

2:52:322:52:31

where you are having to work with another

2:52:322:52:31

party is Plaid Cymru. To what extent and to

2:52:322:52:31

what detail was the deal done that

2:52:322:52:31

allowed you to be appointed as First For example, on the

2:52:322:52:31

number of doctors. Plaid Cymru were saying we have

2:52:322:52:31

realised our manifesto commitment which is

2:52:322:52:31

a thousand extra doctors. The deal between you

2:52:322:52:31

two says more GPs. Is it going to be a thousand more

2:52:322:52:31

doctors over the next five years? There is an overemphasis

2:52:322:52:31

on GPs here. We are talking about primary

2:52:322:52:31

care professionals. They are just dealing

2:52:322:52:31

with things the pharmacists Plaid Cymru are pressing this is a

2:52:322:52:31

victory for them. They are calling for 5000 new nurses. We likely see

2:52:322:52:31

that? That is half the story. We have more

2:52:322:52:31

doctors in Wales than ever but it has to go hand in hand with

2:52:322:52:31

pharmacists and practice nurses. Plaid Cymru are saying a thousand.

2:52:322:52:31

That is for them to explain. When they talk about a thousand doctors,

2:52:322:52:31

GPs? Orthopaedic surgeons? Because we don't understand the detail my

2:52:322:52:31

the party can reach an agreement. We want to make sure Wales is an

2:52:322:52:31

attractive place for all primary care professionals. You have too

2:52:322:52:31

remembered this was an agreement to move us forward last week. It isn't

2:52:322:52:31

a coalition agreement. The parties will disagree. Are you at Cross

2:52:322:52:31

wires on certain areas? Plaid Cymru are saying they have got the

2:52:322:52:31

national infrastructure commission which they are trumpeting as a huge

2:52:322:52:31

deal in accessing money from financial markets. Is that your

2:52:322:52:31

understanding? No, we have not gone into detail.

2:52:322:52:31

Should you have done that? That is for Plaid Cymru to come forward with

2:52:322:52:31

ideas. We would not set up a quango. There is a difference of opinion on

2:52:322:52:31

the M4 Black Root. What are your thoughts their?

2:52:322:52:31

Batters got a process to go through. There will be a public enquiry. It

2:52:322:52:31

is important is that enquiry looks at all the issues. We will not

2:52:322:52:31

support of the blue route because it is a dual carriageway and there's no

2:52:322:52:31

point in replacing one Doukara trip with another. It is a much cheaper

2:52:322:52:31

than the black route. The blue route runs past thousands of people in

2:52:322:52:31

their houses. Quite often, past their front doors. Anybody who

2:52:322:52:31

supported that wouldn't win a seat in new parts for generations. Is the

2:52:322:52:31

blue route that? It is a serious election issue in Newport. People

2:52:322:52:31

used to tell me they don't want a motorway past their doors. The Black

2:52:322:52:31

route is the route that is being perceived. We will have to see

2:52:322:52:31

whether public enquiry says. Let's see what that inquiry's conclusions

2:52:322:52:31

are. If you're in position after this inquiry when it is just you

2:52:322:52:31

supporting the black roots, would you be happy accepting the support

2:52:322:52:31

of the Conservatives? We don't know what the inquiry will show. If it

2:52:322:52:31

turns round and says it is on something it should happen, we're

2:52:322:52:31

back to the drawing board. We have to wait and see what the inquiry

2:52:322:52:31

says. Have a look at the conclusions of that inquiry and take a decision

2:52:322:52:31

then. So, wait and see. Carwyn Jones there, with his view

2:52:322:52:31

on what we can expect The Leader of the Opposition

2:52:322:52:31

to his plans, on paper at least, the leader of Plaid Cymru,

2:52:322:52:31

Leanne Wood is here with me now. We have seen Carwyn Jones rolling

2:52:322:52:31

back on e-cigarettes, the number of councils in Wales. What you make of

2:52:322:52:31

that curve Mac it is good to see some movement on some things that I

2:52:322:52:31

have to say I was disappointed overall to see the First Minister

2:52:322:52:31

sounding exactly the same as the First Minister in the last

2:52:322:52:31

administration. The way that he talked about the M4, for example,

2:52:322:52:31

and is question about Plaid Cymru's commitment to getting an extra

2:52:322:52:31

thousand doctors. It is an important point is to us. We are moving away

2:52:322:52:31

from the agreements we made last week.

2:52:322:52:31

Is he really acting exactly as he did before the election? This

2:52:322:52:31

morning he said there is no point banging our heads on the brick wall,

2:52:322:52:31

we have to understand supporters in there across the Assembly. We

2:52:322:52:31

haven't got a monopoly on good ideas come he said. We are hearing some

2:52:322:52:31

positive words but they are not being backed up by the action. What

2:52:322:52:31

I saw in the interview there were still battle of the loft the Nile.

2:52:322:52:31

He said there that Wales has more doctors than we've ever had before.

2:52:322:52:31

That doesn't take away from the fact we have still got fewer doctors per

2:52:322:52:31

head than any other country in the UK. Any other country barges to in

2:52:322:52:31

the whole of the EU. The reason we have prioritised doctors and the

2:52:322:52:31

reason why doctors were named and the training of doctors, that is an

2:52:322:52:31

important point, what we have moved on in this agreement is the

2:52:322:52:31

principle that we do need to train more doctors and that is imposed on

2:52:322:52:31

is for training facilities and we will be pushing for a medical school

2:52:322:52:31

in Bangor. But then I know details. That is what Carwyn Jones said. Now

2:52:322:52:31

he is in place as First Minister, you have reached the agreement,

2:52:322:52:31

without any details that is so much wiggle room you will end up getting

2:52:322:52:31

far short of what you were hoping. After the agreement was announced,

2:52:322:52:31

you were singing we have got nine key priorities but you are a long

2:52:322:52:31

way away from what he wants. The danger faces the government if

2:52:322:52:31

they continue to be intransigent because they need the support of

2:52:322:52:31

another party to get their budget through. The way they tarnished and

2:52:322:52:31

try to smear Plaid Cymru after having the Conservatives and Ukip

2:52:322:52:31

voting with this, tells me it would be difficult for them to look for

2:52:322:52:31

support from either of those two parties. One of the criteria that I

2:52:322:52:31

will be looking at when we consider whether or not we support the budget

2:52:322:52:31

in the future is how much progress is being made this agreement we have

2:52:322:52:31

made week. If we see no progress, or if we seek backing down from that

2:52:322:52:31

agreement, we will be having to consider carefully what we do with

2:52:322:52:31

our votes. There are these three committees looking at those various

2:52:322:52:31

deals. Let's try and iron out a few of them. On doctors, is there a

2:52:322:52:31

minimum and which you won't go? Are you still hoping to get a thousand

2:52:322:52:31

extra doctors, 5000 extra nurses? We want 1000 doctors. The reason why is

2:52:322:52:31

we have fewer doctors per head than so many other EU countries. We want

2:52:322:52:31

to get Wales and the only way we can tackle waiting list is by having

2:52:322:52:31

more people full stop he was saying you don't know what kind of doctors

2:52:322:52:31

you want. We have made it very clear exactly how we want that mix-up of

2:52:322:52:31

doctors and health care professionals to look. If he hasn't

2:52:322:52:31

been briefed on that I suggest he needs to.

2:52:322:52:31

What about an infrastructure commission? It was this huge new

2:52:322:52:31

body, gets money from financial markets. Carwyn Jones said you

2:52:322:52:31

weren't getting this quango. We never said it was going to be a

2:52:322:52:31

quango. And arm's-length body? We have agreed to set one up and

2:52:322:52:31

that was the agreements we made last week in order to allow him to be

2:52:322:52:31

elected as First Minister. For Plaid Cymru support on future votes

2:52:322:52:31

including registration and budgets, I expect to see some progress and no

2:52:322:52:31

dig Andy agreements. -- reneging. How can you renege on an agreements

2:52:322:52:31

without any details? It is called a compact. But there

2:52:322:52:31

are no details. There is an agreements to see

2:52:322:52:31

progress on five of Plaid Cymru smack pledges. I am not saying each

2:52:322:52:31

of those five are full. If the agreement is kept but there will be

2:52:322:52:31

progress on five of those commitments. What I want to see at

2:52:322:52:31

the end of this term is progress made on all nine and indeed more of

2:52:322:52:31

the policy commitment in our manifesto. At the end of the day

2:52:322:52:31

this country needs to seek progress and I spent the election saying, if

2:52:322:52:31

we carry on doing what we have always done we will get what we've

2:52:322:52:31

always got. It does seem to be stalemate on the

2:52:322:52:31

M4 Black route was up Carwyn Jones said I am willing to negotiate on

2:52:322:52:31

e-cigarettes, councils but not on blue route. He said, no. What

2:52:322:52:31

happens there? He has the option of going to the

2:52:322:52:31

Conservatives for support. There are political consequences to doing

2:52:322:52:31

that. I have always said that the Black route is too expensive, it

2:52:322:52:31

causes too many environmental problems and it focuses all our

2:52:322:52:31

borrowing capacity on one part of Wales where there is need in other

2:52:322:52:31

parts. I am not intransigent on this. I will be prepared to look at

2:52:322:52:31

other options but not that black roots.

2:52:322:52:31

So it is back to the drawing board. When Ieuan Jones was in charge of

2:52:322:52:31

transport he held an enquiry and that inquiry showed that black Blues

2:52:322:52:31

would not reduce the traffic and just in overtime. Why would we want

2:52:322:52:31

to spend in excess of the billion pounds on a project that doesn't

2:52:322:52:31

actually achieve... Plaid Cymru won't support the Black route. If

2:52:322:52:31

the government wanted to go ahead, it has to have the support of the

2:52:322:52:31

loan Liberal Democrats and the Tories. I would say, good luck to

2:52:322:52:31

that. Just one quick question. Is there a danger you have been conned?

2:52:322:52:31

Looking at health, doctors, the issue of a commission. Have you been

2:52:322:52:31

conned? I don't think so. I guess time will

2:52:322:52:31

tell. When we see the way in which the Assembly pans out of the next

2:52:322:52:31

five years I think we will arrive at the end of the process realising

2:52:322:52:31

Plaid Cymru has had a lot of power in this term. Thank you very much

2:52:322:52:31

for your time. Well, all this excitement has

2:52:322:52:31

been a bit much for us, so we're taking a little holiday

2:52:322:52:31

next week and will be But we're going to end today

2:52:322:52:31

on a bit of music, reflecting all the ups and downs

2:52:322:52:31

since the election. This is from my colleague at BBC

2:52:322:52:31

Wales Online, Phil John. Something to tide you over

2:52:322:52:31

until we meet again. # Having to spend each day

2:52:322:52:31

the colour of the leaves # Let me be the one

2:52:322:52:31

you're looking for # I'm on the top of the world

2:52:322:52:31

looking down on creation # I'm on the How top of the world

2:52:322:52:31

looking down on creation # And the only

2:52:322:52:31

explanation I can find # This town ain't big

2:52:322:52:31

enough for the both of us # And it ain't me

2:52:322:52:31

who's going to leave # Turned around and smiled at me,

2:52:322:52:31

do you get the picture? # That's when I fell

2:52:322:52:31

for the leader of the pack # But everybody's changing and I

2:52:322:52:31

don't feel the same. it is therefore the public

2:52:322:52:31

as well as serving a useful purpose of actually being

2:52:322:52:31

able to get across. To you both, thank you very much

2:52:322:52:31

indeed. And with that, it is

2:52:322:52:31

back to you, Andrew. Treasury warnings on Brexit,

2:52:322:52:31

is Labour on course for 2020, and are there enough women

2:52:322:52:31

in the referendum campaign? And joining me and my panel

2:52:322:52:31

of so-called experts, is the former Deputy Leader

2:52:322:52:31

of the Labour Party Harriet Harman. Wellcome, it is nice to see you

2:52:322:52:31

again. The Treasury has already told us how bad the economy will be in

2:52:322:52:31

2030, but nobody really knows. This is about, in their view, the

2:52:322:52:31

immediate impact on interest rates, mortgages, jobs, house prices,

2:52:322:52:31

before the autumn is out. This I would suggest is politically more

2:52:322:52:31

significant? Yes, and it is absolutely the Remain campaign's

2:52:322:52:31

biggest howitzer which is why they are firing it now. This is the last

2:52:322:52:31

time they can deploy the full mast ranks of the government's resources

2:52:322:52:31

into the campaign. Most people disagree passionately in this

2:52:322:52:31

campaign about whether over the long-term the British economy will

2:52:322:52:31

prosper or not outside the EU. Pretty much everybody, I think apart

2:52:322:52:31

from Boris Johnson has admits it there might be some short-term

2:52:322:52:31

problems. It is the same with retail. We have heard from the Prime

2:52:322:52:31

Minister today. And mortgages, smacking people as hard as they can

2:52:322:52:31

in their pockets. Even Boris Johnson said there would be a fall because

2:52:322:52:31

he hopes it will go up. People may be nervous that when they get onto

2:52:322:52:31

that tick it does not stop falling. It will be a difficult one for the

2:52:322:52:31

Leave campaign? Guess, and I am picking up a lot of concern in the

2:52:322:52:31

various Brexit camps. They look as if they have conceded the argument

2:52:322:52:31

on the economy. Of course, they emphatically argue the opposite

2:52:322:52:31

direction is that we can do even better out, but there is a lot of

2:52:322:52:31

concern among those who want to leave, that those who are

2:52:322:52:31

representing them in these campaigns, are not putting the

2:52:322:52:31

argument strongly enough and are almost backing of it which is why we

2:52:322:52:31

are hearing arguments about Turkey and immigration and other things. I

2:52:322:52:31

think Leave has to come out really strongly and rebut what the Treasury

2:52:322:52:31

is saying point by point, whether it is on food prices, and there is a

2:52:322:52:31

compelling argument that the Common Agricultural Policy example

2:52:322:52:31

massively distorts prices. Food may not be more expensive when we come

2:52:322:52:31

out so we need to rebut it line by line. -- they need to rebut it. The

2:52:322:52:31

polling suggests if you are worried about the economy you will more

2:52:322:52:31

likely to vote Remain, if you are more worried about public services,

2:52:322:52:31

you will be more likely to vote Leave. This will create a sense of

2:52:322:52:31

economic uncertainty? Yes, and it will be interesting if they make a

2:52:322:52:31

GDP prediction. We are talking about food prices and employment but will

2:52:322:52:31

they predict a technical recession in GDP which I imagine will happen

2:52:322:52:31

if we vote to leave. The Bank of England has admitted that is a

2:52:322:52:31

possibility. I can think of people who are very high up in British

2:52:322:52:31

public life who are downplaying their view about how bad the GDP

2:52:322:52:31

crisis will be in the short-term. I agree with Isobel, it is strange to

2:52:322:52:31

concede the short-term economic argument. You cannot say here is the

2:52:322:52:31

reality of a short-term recession. In return, there is the prospect of

2:52:322:52:31

a longer-term economic benefit which realises in 2030. Labour does not

2:52:322:52:31

normally think very much of Tory forecasts. Will you accept this? We

2:52:322:52:31

are very concerned about jobs and prices and we are very concerned

2:52:322:52:31

about the cavalier sense that it might be a bit of a problem in the

2:52:322:52:31

short-term but it will be fine in the long-term, two reasons.

2:52:322:52:31

Obviously, the Treasury forecasts will be very well worth picking

2:52:322:52:31

through and looking through and will be very persuasive. As far as the

2:52:322:52:31

short-term is concerned, we are trying to find our way out of a

2:52:322:52:31

global financial crisis, and the idea that it would not cause major

2:52:322:52:31

uncertainty and instability to leave an economic union that we have been

2:52:322:52:31

part of four decades, it is a no-brainer even before tomorrow. You

2:52:322:52:31

think the short-term is a problem if we vote to leave? It will be a

2:52:322:52:31

problem about jobs, a problem about prices. Why on earth would we want

2:52:322:52:31

to try and distance ourselves from this biggest trading block of 500

2:52:322:52:31

million people. Why would we want to struggle for keeping our head above

2:52:322:52:31

water in the longer term when we are in the EU as we are? I think it is

2:52:322:52:31

cavalier from people who are not worried about prices and to feel

2:52:322:52:31

happy that their jobs are fine, let's make this bid for freedom. I

2:52:322:52:31

think it is reckless. Reckless? I think there is an accession among

2:52:322:52:31

the Remain camp and it is interesting that Harriet brings this

2:52:322:52:31

up, constantly bringing up trade associations. We can trade without

2:52:322:52:31

trade deals. We talk about the Remain camp focuses highly on the

2:52:322:52:31

importance of the trade deals have, but we are a service economy run

2:52:322:52:31

airily, and those trade deals do not cover the service sector. We can

2:52:322:52:31

trade but if you look without trade deals, that means paying tariffs,

2:52:322:52:31

for example. If you look at the food in our supermarkets which comes in

2:52:322:52:31

from Europe, they can put tariffs on that to make it cost more, and why

2:52:322:52:31

wouldn't they, if we opt out of that free trade area? They would not put

2:52:322:52:31

tariffs on food coming into Britain. We might do that, but they would not

2:52:322:52:31

do that. We would take off the tariffs from the food that comes

2:52:322:52:31

from America, Australia and New Zealand. We are in an established

2:52:322:52:31

range of trading which has been going on for decades and has seen

2:52:322:52:31

food prices going down. That is a big issue if you are on a low

2:52:322:52:31

income. Why would we take that risk? The former chief executives of

2:52:322:52:31

supermarkets, and they have not got any skin in the game because they

2:52:322:52:31

are former chief executives, they have said because of these

2:52:322:52:31

established arrangements, prices are likely to go up. We will hear more

2:52:322:52:31

of that this week with the Treasury report which is coming out tomorrow

2:52:322:52:31

morning. Talking about the economy, let's hear a word from John

2:52:322:52:31

McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor about Labour in the economy. This is

2:52:322:52:31

what he had to say yesterday. Our whole society could do so much

2:52:322:52:31

better than we are at the moment. What we have attempted over the last

2:52:322:52:31

eight months is to lay out the framework by which Labour can

2:52:322:52:31

win the next election, and then set about the fundamental

2:52:322:52:31

business of transforming capitalism. We should aim at nothing

2:52:322:52:31

less than that. So, socialism in one parliament,

2:52:322:52:31

that must excite you? He is talking about a new economic policy which

2:52:322:52:31

will talk about fairness and investment and he says we will be on

2:52:322:52:31

a listening exercise as they put the flesh on the bones. He is talking

2:52:322:52:31

about remaking capitalism, not reforming it, not liberalising it,

2:52:322:52:31

remaking capitalism. Is that realistic? I think there is a bit of

2:52:322:52:31

remaking to be done, for example, remaking the responsibilities of big

2:52:322:52:31

businesses to repay their taxes, do we think it is all sorted? It is

2:52:322:52:31

certainly not. Every government tells me they will put more

2:52:322:52:31

apprentices and you look carefully and they don't really. This

2:52:322:52:31

government, a lot of the apprentices are not what the Germans or

2:52:322:52:31

Austrians would regard as apprentices. Chasing that tax seems

2:52:322:52:31

to be in a never-ending chase as you try and close the loopholes. Because

2:52:322:52:31

it has not necessarily been done so far, and all credit to Margaret

2:52:322:52:31

Hodge and the Public Accounts Committee in exposing all of this,

2:52:322:52:31

does not mean it cannot be done. We could have lots more investment if

2:52:322:52:31

people paid their tax and we could have much more prosperity in the

2:52:322:52:31

economy, but he is recognising we have to convince people that they

2:52:322:52:31

can trust us on the economy. Are you happy with the direction he is

2:52:322:52:31

taking you? I think the principles he is setting out is right. We got

2:52:322:52:31

the wrong answer in the general election last time and we got to be

2:52:322:52:31

the opposition rather than the government, and we have to get a

2:52:322:52:31

different answer next time and that means convincing the public. It is

2:52:322:52:31

about setting up a framework that also making sure we are listening to

2:52:322:52:31

what the public's concerns are about us, not what we want to hear but

2:52:322:52:31

what they are saying. You don't think there are enough women

2:52:322:52:31

involved in the referendum campaign? Would it not be fair to say that it

2:52:322:52:31

is really the Remain side which has the female problem. The Leave site

2:52:322:52:31

has Gisela Stuart, Kate Hoey, pretty Patel, Penny Mordaunt and so on. It

2:52:322:52:31

is your side which is lacking the women -- pretty Patel. There is

2:52:322:52:31

hardly anything between either side. Really? Could you

2:52:322:52:31

hardly anything between either side. that? One of the things we are

2:52:322:52:31

hardly anything between either side. saying is actually, being in the EU

2:52:322:52:31

has helped back-up women at work. It is paradoxical, and it might seem

2:52:322:52:31

unlikely, but the EU has been a strong friend to women at work and

2:52:322:52:31

these directives which governments always do not like, either Labour

2:52:322:52:31

these directives which governments the Tories don't like the idea of

2:52:322:52:31

directives from Europe, but they have been backing up part-time

2:52:322:52:31

workers... I understand have been backing up part-time

2:52:322:52:31

am looking at the fact have been backing up part-time

2:52:322:52:31

said there are not enough have been backing up part-time

2:52:322:52:31

voices in the campaign. Do you agree with that? I would agree with you.

2:52:322:52:31

voices in the campaign. Do you agree The Leave women are pretty loud.

2:52:322:52:31

Where is The Leave women are pretty loud.

2:52:322:52:31

single biggest female voice and she is almost mute. The idea that the

2:52:322:52:31

Leave side is in some post feminist political nirvana is for the

2:52:322:52:31

absolute birds. political nirvana is for the

2:52:322:52:31

Leave side I think of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage and

2:52:322:52:31

Leave side I think of Boris Johnson to think about it. I just gave

2:52:322:52:31

Leave side I think of Boris Johnson prominent women campaigners. Are you

2:52:322:52:31

Leave side I think of Boris Johnson haven? No, I don't think they would

2:52:322:52:31

know what that is. haven? No, I don't think they would

2:52:322:52:31

work out if haven? No, I don't think they would

2:52:322:52:31

the EU is a beacon haven? No, I don't think they would

2:52:322:52:31

equality. I would like you to look at this.

2:52:322:52:31

equality. I would like you to look in the European Union. Something

2:52:322:52:31

probably strikes you about that. Where is the gender equality in the

2:52:322:52:31

EU in the top seven jobs? That is why it is an irony that actually,

2:52:322:52:31

the directives and European court judgments have backed up women at

2:52:322:52:31

work. Except in the EU itself? But if you look at the Treaty of Rome,

2:52:322:52:31

which was very much ahead of its time, saying you have to pay women

2:52:322:52:31

equally and treat women equally... It is do as I say, not as I do. It

2:52:322:52:31

looks like a boys' club up there. It is do as I say, not as I do. It

2:52:322:52:31

And the other thing that strikes me about this row of men. Who

2:52:322:52:31

those people? Could you even recognise one of them? I do know who

2:52:322:52:31

they are and I don't like the fact they are all men... That tells

2:52:322:52:31

about the EU and our sovereignty. No, it does not. The directives from

2:52:322:52:31

Europe have backed up women at work, No, it does not. The directives from

2:52:322:52:31

part-timers, low-paid women, women having babies. If

2:52:322:52:31

part-timers, low-paid women, women would have done it, more better. Why

2:52:322:52:31

haven't they read the directives? would have done it, more better. Why

2:52:322:52:31

don't know who they are. That speaks for itself. They

2:52:322:52:31

don't know who they are. That speaks think should be running us and you

2:52:322:52:31

don't know who they are! I am think should be running us and you

2:52:322:52:31

talking about the facts of the impact for women at work about us

2:52:322:52:31

being in the EU and our rights on maternity and equal pay. The

2:52:322:52:31

directives have helped us even when our own government have not. They do

2:52:322:52:31

not seem to have got the message. You have picked them at random! No,

2:52:322:52:31

they are not! Bayard the top seven jobs in the EU. Ranks to all our

2:52:322:52:31

guests, good to see Harry it back. -- thanks to all our guests, good to

2:52:322:52:31

see Harry it back. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday

2:52:322:52:31

Politics, unless it is the Whitsun bank holiday.

2:52:322:52:32

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