Browse content similar to 22/05/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Leave campaigners say Turkey is on course to join | :00:36. | :00:43. | |
the European Union and, if we remain in the EU, | :00:44. | :00:45. | |
that will mean more criminals here and greater pressure | :00:46. | :00:48. | |
The Prime Minister says it's nonsense. | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
We'll have the latest on this developing row. | :00:52. | :00:54. | |
This woman claims to be the voice of business - | :00:55. | :00:57. | |
and that most businesses in the UK want to remain in the EU. | :00:58. | :01:00. | |
But is the business case that clear cut? | :01:01. | :01:02. | |
We speak to the Director General of the CBI. | :01:03. | :01:07. | |
When it comes to gauging public opinion on the referendum, | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
which is better: telephone polls or online polls? | :01:11. | :01:11. | |
Even the pollsters are having trouble answering that one. | :01:12. | :01:16. | |
And I tell you what, if I don't know, | :01:17. | :01:19. | |
Later in the programme: for lark for 21 years, | :01:20. | :01:24. | |
At the end of a stormy two weeks in Cardiff Bay, | :01:25. | :01:26. | |
the two main protagonists will be here to tell me | :01:27. | :01:29. | |
In London it's thought 400,000, wrath citizens are eligible to vote | :01:30. | :01:38. | |
in the EU referendum. Which way did they tilt? | :01:39. | :01:42. | |
And with me - as always - a political panel of the best | :01:43. | :01:45. | |
and the brightest in the business, hopefully they do know which way | :01:46. | :01:48. | |
to jump: Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh | :01:49. | :01:50. | |
who'll be tweeting throughout the programme. | :01:51. | :01:54. | |
Turkey has taken centre-stage in the referendum debate today. | :01:55. | :01:56. | |
Vote Leave are launching a new poster campaign warning that | :01:57. | :01:58. | |
Turkey is on course to join the EU, leaving the UK vulnerable | :01:59. | :02:02. | |
to criminals, mass migration and more pressure on public services. | :02:03. | :02:07. | |
The Prime Minister was asked about the claims | :02:08. | :02:09. | |
on the Robert Peston programme on ITV. | :02:10. | :02:12. | |
Every country has a veto, and let's be clear, | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
as Boris himself said, Turkey joining the EU is not remotely on | :02:17. | :02:21. | |
the cards. At the current rate of progress, this would be decades, | :02:22. | :02:24. | |
literally decades, before this even had a prospect of | :02:25. | :02:26. | |
happening, and even at that stage, we would be able to say no. | :02:27. | :02:31. | |
Well, that was David Cameron this morning. | :02:32. | :02:34. | |
But here's what he had to say in a speech in Istanbul in 2010. | :02:35. | :02:45. | |
But here's what he had to say in a speech in Ankara in 2010. | :02:46. | :02:49. | |
It makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be | :02:50. | :02:57. | |
frustrated. My view is clear. I believe it is wrong to say that | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
Turkey can guard the camp, but not be allowed to sit in the tent. So | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
why will remain your strongest possible advocate for EU membership | :03:07. | :03:09. | |
and for greater influence at the top possible advocate for EU membership | :03:10. | :03:15. | |
table of European diplomacy. The Prime Minister six years ago after | :03:16. | :03:16. | |
becoming Prime Minister. Is it a proper issue for this | :03:17. | :03:20. | |
referendum or is it a red Is it a proper issue for this | :03:21. | :03:30. | |
the Leave campaign will be delighted that we | :03:31. | :03:35. | |
the Leave campaign will be delighted about Turkey, you | :03:36. | :03:38. | |
image of more migration, uncontrolled immigration from | :03:39. | :03:40. | |
image of more migration, poorer countries so it is a | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
image of more migration, win. I am not sure that the Prime | :03:44. | :03:53. | |
Minister is right to engage in this one. But he has been called about | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
this from someone whose judgment he also calls into question. But is a | :03:58. | :03:59. | |
strange thing, his own Armed also calls into question. But is a | :04:00. | :04:06. | |
Minister. The also calls into question. But is a | :04:07. | :04:10. | |
right to say we have a veto, every EU member has a veto in new members, | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
but if the Prime Minister is in favour of Turkey joining, | :04:15. | :04:15. | |
but if the Prime Minister is in said he was in Ankara, then the veto | :04:16. | :04:22. | |
does not matter? Absolutely. What a great clip that was | :04:23. | :04:25. | |
does not matter? Absolutely. What a Minister in 2010, when he set out | :04:26. | :04:28. | |
does not matter? Absolutely. What a Ray clearly what his position is. He | :04:29. | :04:31. | |
supports Turkey joining the EU in whatever time frame that may be. It | :04:32. | :04:38. | |
does not do for the Prime Minister to say we have a veto. The question | :04:39. | :04:40. | |
is, will you use that veto? If to say we have a veto. The question | :04:41. | :04:45. | |
Turkey, that is big news hear it? It would be a big U-turn. | :04:46. | :04:55. | |
It could be moot, couldn't it? There is no prospect of Turkey joining in | :04:56. | :04:59. | |
the future, is there? The telling thing about this conversation | :05:00. | :05:00. | |
the future, is there? The telling are focusing on our veto and the | :05:01. | :05:06. | |
veto possessed by all existing EU members and not focusing | :05:07. | :05:08. | |
veto possessed by all existing EU itself. Is that country as keen on | :05:09. | :05:15. | |
veto possessed by all existing EU change and internal politics in | :05:16. | :05:18. | |
Turkey suggests they are less keen on membership or less keen on doing | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
the things necessary to successfully apply for EU mentorship than they | :05:24. | :05:27. | |
were a while ago. I think for reasons on the Turkish side and on | :05:28. | :05:30. | |
the European side, it will not happen until I am a very old man. | :05:31. | :05:33. | |
But it happen until I am a very old man. | :05:34. | :05:37. | |
Leave to play up this issue and every day we talk about migration is | :05:38. | :05:40. | |
a day we're not spending talking about the economy and I think that | :05:41. | :05:42. | |
is their only route about the economy and I think that | :05:43. | :05:54. | |
next year, who are not going to agree to Turkey joining any | :05:55. | :05:59. | |
next year, who are not going to soon. And if you were to be fair to | :06:00. | :06:02. | |
the prime and Vista, you would say he made that speech in 2010 | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
the prime and Vista, you would say Ankara, me and a whole load of | :06:07. | :06:17. | |
the prime and Vista, you would say president. He was very | :06:18. | :06:22. | |
the prime and Vista, you would say up to President | :06:23. | :06:23. | |
the prime and Vista, you would say because he wanted more trade. That | :06:24. | :06:27. | |
was pre-migration crisis. That has changed everything | :06:28. | :06:45. | |
was pre-migration crisis. That has to do a 180 degrees U-turn on this | :06:46. | :06:48. | |
issue. We will see as the day develops. | :06:49. | :06:50. | |
So, the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens, says the health | :06:51. | :06:56. | |
Two of his predecessors have also written a joint article | :06:57. | :06:59. | |
in the Sunday Times saying that they think, | :07:00. | :07:01. | |
for the NHS at least, staying in the EU is | :07:02. | :07:04. | |
Mr Stevens was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning. | :07:05. | :07:06. | |
When Mark Carney says that the risk of a slowdown in economic growth, | :07:07. | :07:11. | |
possibly a recession, if we end up exiting the EU, | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
if Mark Carney is right, then that is a severe concern | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
for the National Health Service, because it would be very dangerous | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
if at precisely the moment the NHS is going to need extra funding, | :07:24. | :07:30. | |
they argue that remaining in the EU will place further strain on the NHS | :07:31. | :07:39. | |
due to continued free movement of people and the accession | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
The Department of Health estimates that the cost to the NHS in England | :07:43. | :08:00. | |
from visitors and non-permanent residents who come from | :08:01. | :08:02. | |
the European economic area, that is the EU plus Iceland, | :08:03. | :08:04. | |
Lichtenstein and Norway, is around ?340 million a year. | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
To put that in context, the total annual expenditure | :08:09. | :08:10. | |
in England's NHS was ?113 billion in 2014-15. | :08:11. | :08:15. | |
There are around 3 million people from other EU countries resident | :08:16. | :08:18. | |
in the UK and all are entitled to use NHS services. | :08:19. | :08:24. | |
All those would be entitled to stay in the UK, even if we were to leave | :08:25. | :08:30. | |
the EU, due to the rights under the Vienna Convention. | :08:31. | :08:33. | |
In 2015, around 257,000 EU nationals migrated to the UK. | :08:34. | :08:39. | |
But whether that number would come down if we vote to leave depends | :08:40. | :08:42. | |
on the deal the UK strikes with the EU following an exit. | :08:43. | :08:46. | |
NHS England says the total number of staff coming from EU countries | :08:47. | :08:52. | |
was just over 53,000, or 4.6% of the total NHS workforce. | :08:53. | :08:58. | |
A total of 9% of NHS England's hospital doctors, 6% of its nurses | :08:59. | :09:02. | |
and health visitors, come from other EU countries, | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
however, all would be entitled to stay in the event of a vote | :09:08. | :09:11. | |
to leave, and without knowing what any future deal might be, | :09:12. | :09:13. | |
it is impossible to know if there would be any impact | :09:14. | :09:16. | |
A one-time pro-European Foreign Secretary, he is now | :09:17. | :09:23. | |
campaigning for the UK to leave the European Union. | :09:24. | :09:29. | |
Good morning, David Owen. Let me come straight to the remarks by the | :09:30. | :09:37. | |
man currently running the NHS in England, Simon Stevens. He said it | :09:38. | :09:41. | |
would be better for the NHS if we remain in the EU. What is your | :09:42. | :09:47. | |
response? Let's be quite clear. Simon Stevens is the manager of the | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
NHS, which is currently ?3 billion in debt. This man has presided now | :09:54. | :09:59. | |
for a sufficient time to judge his management skills. In almost every | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
part of the National Health Service, there is an acute crisis. He spent | :10:04. | :10:09. | |
ten years in America, with an American health care company, | :10:10. | :10:18. | |
effectively arguing for the TTIP, this treaty between America and the | :10:19. | :10:22. | |
European Union, which could be introduced, and an assessment makes | :10:23. | :10:34. | |
it very clear that TTIP will be very damaging to the National Health | :10:35. | :10:41. | |
Service, if it is drafted in the way that it is. Simon Stevens should | :10:42. | :10:46. | |
stick to his Lee which is to manage the health service more effectively. | :10:47. | :10:51. | |
He is an individual, he has a view on the European Union which is fine, | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
but his basic job is to look after the NHS, and at the moment he is | :10:56. | :11:00. | |
making a very considerable mess of. It is not just Simon Stevens, two of | :11:01. | :11:09. | |
his predecessors say staying in the EU is the preferable option. | :11:10. | :11:15. | |
Identifying, if there is any danger to the NHS, it is in staying in, | :11:16. | :11:20. | |
with all the elements of the NHS which are now involved with the EU. | :11:21. | :11:26. | |
-- I don't think. For the first 20 years of our membership, with the | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
common market, we had no involvement with the NHS at all. Now the NHS | :11:31. | :11:36. | |
procurement policy, the NHS competition policy is all impact in, | :11:37. | :11:40. | |
because we have started to Mark ties the NHS in 2002 under Labour. It | :11:41. | :11:45. | |
continued under the coalition with the Liberal Democrats of this | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
present Conservative government, and it has continued under this | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
Conservative government. If you treat health like water or | :11:55. | :11:58. | |
electricity or gas, as a utility, and you treat them all as customers, | :11:59. | :12:03. | |
then you will be under market pressures, and the problem with the | :12:04. | :12:10. | |
NHS is we lost what it was, it fortunately still is in Wales, | :12:11. | :12:13. | |
Scotland and Northern Ireland, but in England it is a marker ties to | :12:14. | :12:18. | |
health service modelling itself on the United States of America. If you | :12:19. | :12:21. | |
wanted to make changes, you would be wiser to stick to Germany or France, | :12:22. | :12:28. | |
not go the United States model. Let me put a point to you. Michael Gove, | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
part of the Leave campaign, he says the NHS could be overwhelmed by | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
continued migration if we stay in the EU. He predicts an extra 5 | :12:38. | :12:43. | |
million plus by 2030. These predictions suggest that Turkey, | :12:44. | :12:49. | |
Macedonia and Albania all join the EU by 2020. That is not on the | :12:50. | :12:55. | |
cards, is it? Let's be clear about your programme so far and analyse | :12:56. | :13:02. | |
what has been said already. It is not the Prime Minister what he said | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
in Istanbul, the Prime Minister nine weeks ago signed up to the European | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
Council meeting on the 18th of March, and he said, to re-energise | :13:12. | :13:19. | |
the accession process for Turkey to join the EU, and to make preparatory | :13:20. | :13:26. | |
work for the opening of other chapters will continue at an | :13:27. | :13:32. | |
accelerating pace. This is a Prime Minister who is getting used to | :13:33. | :13:35. | |
saying one thing one time, another thing another. Nine weeks ago, we | :13:36. | :13:41. | |
were committed to increasing the speed of entry for Turkey into the | :13:42. | :13:47. | |
European Union. I am passionate about keeping Turkey inside Nato, | :13:48. | :13:52. | |
and with one foot in the EU and with one foot in the Middle East. Why? | :13:53. | :13:57. | |
Because Turkey is essentially important country, as a member of | :13:58. | :14:02. | |
Nato in dealing with Isil, Syria, Iraq and many other problems around | :14:03. | :14:08. | |
the world. But you will not make it by bringing them prematurely into | :14:09. | :14:12. | |
the European Union. What we should be doing is encouraging them to come | :14:13. | :14:16. | |
into the single market which has non-EU countries associated, but | :14:17. | :14:25. | |
without this issue of freedom of movement of Labour. You are Foreign | :14:26. | :14:33. | |
Secretary... Let me ask this question. You must surely know, that | :14:34. | :14:39. | |
Turkey's chances of joining the EU in the foreseeable future are | :14:40. | :14:43. | |
remote. Isn't that the reality? No, I think what was said by your | :14:44. | :14:47. | |
commentator earlier in the programmers that has been a change | :14:48. | :14:51. | |
of foreign policy. If the Prime Minister commits nine weeks ago to | :14:52. | :14:54. | |
speeding up Turkey's membership, and then does not deliver on it, what | :14:55. | :15:00. | |
will be the consequences? Turkey will feel they have been lied to or | :15:01. | :15:04. | |
rejected by the Europeans and they will, in my view, come out of Nato | :15:05. | :15:10. | |
with very profound consequences. At the moment, let's treat Turkey with | :15:11. | :15:14. | |
respect, let's try and ensure they make the necessary changes on human | :15:15. | :15:18. | |
rights and in many other areas. There are a lot of worrying aspects | :15:19. | :15:23. | |
about Turkish policy, but mention above the European Union in my view | :15:24. | :15:28. | |
is not the issue. It is how to make them more committed to Europe. Don't | :15:29. | :15:35. | |
avoid this question. If we are in the European Union, we are committed | :15:36. | :15:39. | |
to freedom of movement of Labour in every aspect of EU membership. That | :15:40. | :15:44. | |
is a problem. David Owen, thank you, we will have to leave it there. | :15:45. | :15:48. | |
The Confederation Of British Industry calls itself | :15:49. | :15:50. | |
the "voice of business", claiming to speak on behalf | :15:51. | :15:52. | |
of 190,000 businesses, employing up to 7 million people. | :15:53. | :15:55. | |
And according to the CBI, British businesses overwhelmingly | :15:56. | :15:57. | |
back the idea of remaining in the EU. | :15:58. | :16:00. | |
What's more, they've been encouraging their members to talk | :16:01. | :16:04. | |
to staff about the referendum to give them "the choice to hear | :16:05. | :16:08. | |
what impact a Brexit would have on company growth, | :16:09. | :16:10. | |
their jobs and their local community". | :16:11. | :16:12. | |
As you can imagine, Leave campaigners are not amused. | :16:13. | :16:19. | |
The chair of the Vote Leave business council, John Longworth, | :16:20. | :16:21. | |
a former director-general of the British Chambers Of Commerce, | :16:22. | :16:23. | |
said the call was an "anti-democratic abuse of power | :16:24. | :16:25. | |
He added: "It's highly regrettable to see big corporate bosses plotting | :16:26. | :16:32. | |
to gang up on their staff, and lecture them on how to vote." | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
Well, we're joined now by the director | :16:38. | :16:39. | |
general of the CBI, Carolyn Fairbairn. | :16:40. | :16:56. | |
Welcome to the programme. Good morning. If big business told its | :16:57. | :17:00. | |
workers how to vote in a general election, there would be broad, so | :17:01. | :17:02. | |
why are you encouraging your members to warn their workers about the | :17:03. | :17:05. | |
dangers of Brexit? That is not what we have said. We have said that | :17:06. | :17:08. | |
people working today in economy want to hear from their employers about | :17:09. | :17:11. | |
what it means on either side of the debate. That is not what you said, | :17:12. | :17:13. | |
you said what impact Brexit would have on growth, jobs and the local | :17:14. | :17:18. | |
community. Positive for negative. You did not say that? It is clear | :17:19. | :17:24. | |
this is not about warning anybody. This is about the questions that | :17:25. | :17:28. | |
people are now asking about what it means for them. We were clean about | :17:29. | :17:33. | |
that. Most of your members, you claim, are in favour of staying in | :17:34. | :17:37. | |
the European Union. The message going out to the workforce will be | :17:38. | :17:40. | |
overwhelmingly about remaining in the EU. The main thing is that | :17:41. | :17:46. | |
people who are going to vote on June 23 have as good an understanding as | :17:47. | :17:51. | |
they possibly can about what it means for their jobs, families and | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
communities. That was the key message, nothing about telling | :17:56. | :18:00. | |
people how to vote. We learned this week that one of your members, | :18:01. | :18:04. | |
Circle, was planning uproar EU campaign with the Prime Minister, | :18:05. | :18:08. | |
even before the renegotiations were finished. With the CBI or any of | :18:09. | :18:12. | |
your members have similar discussions with the government? To | :18:13. | :18:21. | |
my knowledge, no. The conversations that businesses, universities, all | :18:22. | :18:24. | |
parts of our society have with government go on every day. Were you | :18:25. | :18:29. | |
planning the pro-union-mac campaign with the government even before the | :18:30. | :18:36. | |
renegotiations? No. But Circle was? No. Everything the CBI has done is a | :18:37. | :18:42. | |
result of the things we have done and a half of our members. Circle | :18:43. | :18:46. | |
has contracts with the government worth several million pounds. The | :18:47. | :18:52. | |
taxpayer pays for that. Its boss was offering to help the Prime Minister | :18:53. | :18:56. | |
do what he could to help keep Britain in the EU. It was a behind | :18:57. | :19:01. | |
closed doors stitch up between big government and big business, wasn't | :19:02. | :19:06. | |
it? The important thing is to understand what businesses across | :19:07. | :19:10. | |
the country of all sizes are seeing. You're focusing on one company. What | :19:11. | :19:18. | |
we are seeing is that the majority of businesses want to stay in | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
we are seeing is that the majority European Union. I understand that. I | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
am asking you if the way this company has | :19:28. | :19:27. | |
am asking you if the way this smells of a | :19:28. | :19:31. | |
am asking you if the way this think this is a stitch up. It is | :19:32. | :19:35. | |
am asking you if the way this on issues of jobs, | :19:36. | :19:46. | |
trading with the European Union trading with the European Union | :19:47. | :19:51. | |
clearly heard. The voice of this company was certainly clearly heard. | :19:52. | :20:01. | |
clearly heard. The voice of this He saw the Prime Minister, Mr | :20:02. | :20:03. | |
Soames. This is what he did in the follow-up letter. He spoke about | :20:04. | :20:06. | |
backing the prime and is to's campaign to keep us in the EU. This | :20:07. | :20:08. | |
is even though the renegotiations were not finished. He went on to | :20:09. | :20:17. | |
lobby for business. He said... He wants more business at the same | :20:18. | :20:20. | |
lobby for business. He said... He time. It really does add to the | :20:21. | 2:52:31 | |
sense that this is big business feathering its own nest. That is not | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
what is going on. There are conversations all the time. Why he | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
wise to do that, to lobby for more business at the same time as | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
lobbying to stay in the EU? I think there are conversations happening | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
all the time. Is that conversation appropriate? Those are questions for | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
other people. The CBI represents mainly businesses across the UK and | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Europe picking on one. The important thing is the voices of the many are | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
heard in this. Are they heard? You give the impression you like the EU | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
because it is a one-stop club for big business. There are 30,000 | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
lobbyists in Brussels, most of them are doing for the interests of your | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
kind of members, the business. Ordinary folk do not get a look in? | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
I do not think that is true. We have had 20 business surveys since the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
beginning of the year, for all different sizes of business, and it | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is not unanimous, but they are all seeing broadly the same thing. We | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
have had the creative industries Forum coming out with the survey. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
93%, because they are big exporters. This is not just big business. It is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
all sizes of business. Let's look at how the EU is good for your members | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
but not necessarily the rest of us. The European Court of Justice has | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
forced Her Majesty is Customs and revenue to hand back almost ?8 | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
billion in tax paid by big British companies, overruling tax laws made | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
by our government and our Parliament. That is good for big | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
business but not public services? There are areas where we share | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
sovereignty, in order to have a level playing field across Europe | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
for businesses overall. We are not always going to like all of the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
rules. It is a question of whether the benefits outweigh the costs. The | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
benefits to your members are clear, they are paying a billion less in | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
tax. The independent office of budget responsibility expected HMRC | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to pay another 8 billion back by the end of the decade. This is about | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
lowering tax regimes and not allowing HMRC to get the proper tax. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
That is not fear to ordinary people? To be clear, the CBI can businesses | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
overall do not support aggressive tax avoidance. We support the moves | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that have been taken at the OECD level to sort this out. This is not | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
something we support. Your members will be 16 billion better off. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
British schools, hospitals, public services, will be 16 billion worse | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
off. If the HMRC goes down in all these cases, we could be 40 billion | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
worse off. Good for big business, but not local hospitals? I do not | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
know the exact details of those numbers, but I would say that the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
moves to improve tax policy are absolutely supported by members. The | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
CBI has been wrong about Britain in the EU in the past. Why should we | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
listen to you now? This is becoming a distraction. You are right that | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
when the euro was debated at the end of the 1980s, in principle, the CBI | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
had a principle of support with caveats. You supported the principle | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of the European exchange mechanism. That ended in recession. Many people | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
lost their homes and jobs. You then became enthusiastic about UK | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
membership of the monetary union, the euro. I ask again, if you were | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
wrong then, why should we listen to you now? Two important points, if | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
you had continued to scroll down, you would seem that there were | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
caveats, conditions that had to be met. Conditions around harmonisation | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of inflation and the economy. They were never met. By 2000 the CBI had | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
moved its position to neutral. The discussion we are having now is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
about something very different. It is about the experience that we as | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
an economy have had the European Union for 43 years. We have thrived. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
We have gone from being the sick man of Europe to being the strong man. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
His Mrs are doing well. The benefit from being in a single market. The | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
euro was about something which people were imagining in the future, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a different debate. Let's come to the current debate. We saw your | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
stance on the euro then. You know think we would be better off if we | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
remain. That is the clear fight -- the clear-cut view of the CBI. You | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
commissioned an organisation to assess the impact of leaving the EU. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
That is the result of the survey. If we remain, they think the economy | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
will grow by 41% by 2030. Even if we were to come out, the economy would | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
still grow by 39%, even if we did not have any free trade against, it | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
would grow by 36%. It is hardly game changing either way? We have | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
deliberately taken optimistic, balance and areas of the future. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
You're right, economies recover and adapt. You have not shown the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
short-term impact of several years of uncertainty. What we believe, and | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
many others believe as well, is there could be significant | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
short-term impacts, no sunlit uplands. You can get to 39%. Your | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
own study shows are economy would be almost 40% bigger by 2030, even if | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we were to leave. That is if we do a trade deal with the US, if we are | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
able to form new relationships with the EU. These are optimistic | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
assumptions. Take the non-optimistic on, the World Trade Organisation. We | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
just trade on existing rules. It is 36%, it is still a massive rise. Of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
course we would continue to grow. No one has ever said we would not | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
continue to grow. But will we be more prosperous? We would be 36% | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
more prosperous. In the short-term, by 2020, we estimate there would be | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a million fewer jobs and 4-5% hate to GDP. Do we want to do that to | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
school leavers? We've just come out of recession. You accept that the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
difference is not massive? It is entirely possible the economy would | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
adapt. But only with significant short-term impact, and particularly | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
an impact on the next generation of school leavers. The CBI claims that | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
each household benefits to the tune of six -- ?3000 a year. Observers | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
have condemned that as a dishonest figure. Do you stand by it? We do. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
It was a literature sturdy of existing studies. We wanted to put | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
together a figure that was easy to understand. -- literature study. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Estimates like that are difficult to do. There was a range good around | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
it. To be clear, standards of living have doubled. That is since the UK | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
joined the European Union. They have gone from ?20,000 household income | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to about ?40,000. We are seeing a proportion of that has been a result | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of membership of the European Union, and independent studies would | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
support that. You did no original research for this at all. We never | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
claimed to. I have explained that to our viewers. You simply did a survey | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of research papers. But when you look, you cherry picked the research | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
papers that had pro-union-mac inclusions. That is not true. I have | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
got the ones that you did not use, you omitted the IUD, you omitted the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
National Institute for economic and social research. Even omitted the US | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Trade Commission survey of what it meant, or to get this ?3000 figure. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
You know tell me it is not accurate. That is not true. The evaluation we | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
did of the different surveys, we omitted as many on one side as the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
other. There is a 20 page paper on this which anyone can go and read. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
It sets out the methodology accurately. You seem to be biased | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
against those that did not come to the conclusion you want. Channel 4's | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
respected fact checked included, the figure is not based on any real | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
evidence. The chairman of the Treasury Select Committee described | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
it as a scandalous misuse of data and intellectually miss honest. We | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
went to him and we set out the facts. I do not think he had read | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the paper. It is not intended to be anything other than an assessment of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
consensus views over the last ten years. You did not include other | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
papers. The important thing is to be focusing on what this would mean for | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the decision for the country. You're telling people that households would | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
be ?3000 a year worse off if we were to leave? That is not what we are | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
saying. Are you saying that we are ?3000 better off by remaining? As a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
result of having joined, about 15% of the increase in living standards | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
over the time since joining is a result of being part of the European | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Union. That is a reasonable thing to have said. Is the CBI still keen on | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
principle to join the euro? Absolutely not. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Would you welcome a further expansion of the EU to include the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
five countries already in the queue? I think it has to depend on the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
conditions at the time. The thing that is clear is we have a sovereign | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
choice over those additional countries. Turkey is a huge market, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
it could be good for British business, would you welcome it? We | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
have not had that discussion with our members. We would have a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
discussion at that time and have a point of view at that time. The CBI | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
welcomed both the Nice Treaty and Lisbon Treaty. Would you welcome a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
further transfer of powers if we voted to remain? No. I think one | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
thing which is clear is we pool sovereignty when it is in the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
benefits of our economy and we don't wear it is not. I would say one | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
thing, in terms of the opt out from the working Time directive, a very | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
important part of our special arrangement, if you like, of the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
European Union, the CBI was fully part of and helped to negotiate. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Thank you. Depending on which polls you look | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
at, Britain is either scoffing at the idea of leaving the EU | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
or it's marching swiftly One telephone poll this week gave | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Remain an eight point lead. An online poll, meanwhile, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
gave it to Leave by four points. The problem is that both | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
those polls were done Our society and our electorate | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is made up of unique individuals, every one of them different and yet | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
they share many attributes: gender, age, race, religion, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
economic background, education, political views, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
and social attitudes. Pollsters, therefore, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
can only ever try to tell us terms of a specific question, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
but it's only ever going to be a snapshot of wildly | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
interpretable data. That snapshot is simply a moment | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in time, and is always, inevitably, slightly inaccurate | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to varying degrees, and what makes | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
political polling even harder is it is like trying to | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
hit a moving target from a moving platform | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in the And you would think in this EU | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
referendum the simplicity of the question would help, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
should we leave It makes the whole thing | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
much more complicated. The problem is a slew of polls | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
giving very different signals. Given the problems | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
pollsters had getting the general election right, and some | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of them didn't, this matters. Some have it neck and neck, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
some Remain ahead, others ahead It is a minefield in | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
terms of working out When I apply different technical | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
methods to my raw data, I can move the Remain or Leave lead | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in both directions. I tell you what, if I do not | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
know having done this opinion polling lark for 21 years, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
I am not sure who does. Some of this is down to how | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the polls are done, how they get a truly | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
representative sample of society in the first place, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
either by phone or online panels. Which is best is a bone | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of contention that in recent days has even | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
spilt onto social media, The problem is it has become | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
harder and harder to get Online samples are by their nature | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
self-selecting so have biases Phone samples used to be | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
considered far more representative, but in recent years, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the response rates to phone polls have dropped so low it is hard | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
now to consider them to be So both modes have an element | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of self-selection. Can I ask you a few questions about | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
about yourself? Would you say you are likely to vote | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
or will definitely vote? Fewer of us use landlines | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
or want to be cold called, thus more calls then ever before | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
have to be made just to get But you do avoid those who, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
with online polling, And phone contact through | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
persistence is better at eventually reaching those who are | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
harder to get hold of. Would it be all right | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
if we call you back later? There is a growing narrative | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
amongst some pollsters that phone polling | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is probably the more accurate, which, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
given recent phone polling We look at samples and try to check | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
them to see we have the right number of people who vote, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
do we believe that all the people | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in our sample who tell us they're going to vote actually | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
will, are we missing people who really just do not care | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
about the referendum referendum and aren't going to vote, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
are we missing the great unwashed who do | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
not have degrees? All those things, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
when we make adjustments for all of those things, Remain is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
still ahead. We would have to be very, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
very wrong indeed for Remain, at the moment, on the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
polling so far, not to win this Online pollsters, who use panels | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of signed up people, are perhaps not surprisingly | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
pointing to weaknesses So much so that the online pollsters | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
YouGov have conducted some phone polling | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
about phone polling. What we found from that comparison, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
both to the national picture and to our online polls, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
was that telephone polls were underestimating the people | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
who are not university educated, and that is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
hugely important in the EU referendum because we know | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that is one of the great social cleavages, in other words, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
one of the great things that divides So phone polls are missing | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
potential Leave voters. Online are accused | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of overstating them, there are two other that vital: | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
are are you going to vote? Turnout will be | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
crucial on June 23rd. The higher it is the more it favours | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Remain, and what happens when the mass of "don't | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
knows" make up their mind? With more questions and mixed | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
answers, and four weeks to go, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
most pollsters might reasonably fear | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the result of a poll that asked us all, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
"Do pollsters really have a It's just gone 11.35, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in Scotland who leave us now It's just gone 11.35, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
you're watching the Sunday Politics. Hello and welcome to | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the Sunday Politics Wales. Well, a fortnight after the election | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we finally have a new And Carwyn Jones had a few | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
surprises up his sleeve We'll be hearing from | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the First Minister in a moment, and the Plaid leader Leanne Wood | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
will be here live. First, Cemlyn Davies | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
on the machinations of the past week in Cardiff Bay's very | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
own House of Cards. The past couple of weeks | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in Cardiff Bay have been like an episode | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of a tense political drama. We have had theatre, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
intrigue and suspense. Dealt a tricky hand after that | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
unexpected tied vote delayed the nomination of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a First Minister, Labour's Carwyn Jones | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
was forced to rethink and But by Thursday he had successfully | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
navigated his way back into office and played that card, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we suspected was up his sleeve, inviting the only remaining | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Lib Dem Assembly Member to his Cabinet table as | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Education Secretary. A special adviser to former | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
First Minister Rhodri Morgan, Paul Griffiths helped oversee | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
two coalition deals. He has been watching Carwyn Jones's | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
response to recent Carwyn will have been under | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
significant pressure and will have been working very, very hard | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
with people around him to test out what is possible and what can be | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
gained and how a government can Back in 2007, Rhodri Morgan had | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a heart attack during this period. It might have been | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
entirely coincidental. But the pressure that it puts | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
on all the individuals involved, given the fact you have been | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
through many months of hard campaigning, to actually come | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
then to new relationships and new understandings with different | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
people, it is enormous pressure. Kirsty Williams's appointment | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
as Education Secretary was certainly a bold move by Carwyn Jones, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
but does it make political sense? Since the election, Kirsty's | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
position has been more powerful than the maths imply | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
because of the fractions From her point of view | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
and from a Liberal Democrat point of view, rather than | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the decision echoing the Coalition Government in the UK from 2010, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
actually the Liberal Democrats in Wales, you could argue, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
had not a lot left to lose. In previous, more formal coalition | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
agreements, Labour first ministers have been able to offer portfolios | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
which sounded quite grand but were not of huge | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
influence within government. Yet, what Kirsty Williams has got | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is, second to health, probably the biggest | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
spending portfolio with one of the bigger sets of challenges | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in Welsh Government. Now as the credits roll on this | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
opening programme, we are left wondering what more | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we can expect from the How significant will recent events | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
prove to be and what lessons can In the long-term this | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
will probably be It was a bit of drama | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
last week when we had to wait to see who our | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
new First Minister would be. But now things have been | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
settled between Plaid Cymru and Labour, I think | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we will get back to normal Even with Kirsty Williams | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in the cabinet, it is still a The relationship in particular with | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Plaid Cymru will need to be worked That is the key point, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Carwyn Jones does still lack a majority and his government will | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
come under pressure at some point. But we now know there | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
will be several changes. Speaking on the Sunday Supplement | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
programme this morning, the First Minister Carwyn Jones said | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that the ban on e-cigs When I spoke to Carwyn Jones just | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
before we came on air It is clear there isn't | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a majority in the Assembly There's no point running | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
into a brick wall so it is important we get a public health bill | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
through that will command support Are you disappointed you won't to be | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
able to press ahead with that? Of course, but we have to recognise | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
reality and that there are many aspects to the public health bill | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that are important and it is Looking again at one of the other | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
issues you have rolled back on this morning, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
changes to local government, the numbers | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of councils we have in Wales. There was talk of taking it down | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to eight or nine councils. You also think that | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is no longer a goer? I don't think the map | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we have published before the election | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
will command support What is important | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is everybody agrees that there has to be | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a reorganisation of local government The question is, there's no point | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of leaving things as they are for I want to discuss this | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
with other parties to Everybody accepts | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
there has to be change. Is this a reflection of a broader | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
change in how you are going to be going about | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
politics in the Senedd? You were saying last week no one | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
party has a monopoly on good ideas, you need to reach | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
out to other parties. Is this how it is going to be | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
for the next few months? There has never been | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a government in Wales with a majority, there has always | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
been the need to work with other You recognise the arithmetic | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
and we will continue to look to find common ground | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
with other parties. There's no point being tribal, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
for tribalism sake. People out there want to see good | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
government in Wales and they want to see | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
parties working together. I don't see that as a weakness, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
I see that as a sign of One element of this new policy | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is your invitation to bring in Kirsty Williams into the Cabinet, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
now ratified from her party's point To what extent will | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
she be considered a To what extent will | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
she have the odd pass where she doesn't have to fully | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
support the government's programme? She is a full part of the Cabinet, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
clearly there is collected responsibility, but Kirsty and I | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
will be meeting every week to work through the issues to make sure | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we get to a point of agreement. It isn't the case that she has do | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
whatever she is told. She is not a member | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of Welsh Labour, she is a member of the Welsh | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Liberal Democrats. But will she be allowed | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to vote against some of the What we need is to make sure | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that we have Cabinet We have been here before, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we have coalitions in the past... But we have had a clear | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
programme of government then. The issues have been | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
dealt with pretty easily. Issues arise in the course of five | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
years that you don't anticipate. But what about, for example, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in her area, education, will she have free reign | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
on education policies or will there be a discussion | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
there between you and her as well? There will be discussions | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to make sure nothing is happening that is outside | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of either party 's manifesto. We have published common | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
priorities for education. She will be a very good | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Education Minister. The priorities that we have laid | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
out are shared by both parties. Let me give you an example | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
where that isn't the case. The Lib Dems had | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a manifesto commitment to abolish these regional consortia, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the four or five consortia throughout Wales to drive up | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
standards in schools, she said In the past, your education | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
ministers have said, these It is clear to me the consortia | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
made a huge difference. Before that, the LEA's were not | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
delivering consistently across We had one council, Anglesey, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
I had to be taken over Kirsty will look at | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
what needs to be done. What she needs to do and what she | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
understands is to make sure we continue moving in | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the right direction. In fairness, I have heard | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to say that this morning. What of this issue of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
smaller class sizes? She says that is ?40 million over | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the next five years. Are you happy to spend | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
all that money on something which, in the past, education | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
ministers from the Labour government have said, it is not the answer | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to all the problems. Bear in mind one of our | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
manifesto commitments was to set aside an extra ?100 | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
million pot for education. We are not in a position | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
where we are at odds with We will see how that manifesto | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
commitment will fit in It has been quite clear | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we have agreed that one of her priorities is to reduce | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
infant class sizes to 25 and under. We have to be careful to how it's | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
done so local authorities and We have no difficulty | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
with that objective. The other element | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
where you are having to work with another | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
party is Plaid Cymru. To what extent and to | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
what detail was the deal done that | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
allowed you to be appointed as First For example, on the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
number of doctors. Plaid Cymru were saying we have | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
realised our manifesto commitment which is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a thousand extra doctors. The deal between you | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
two says more GPs. Is it going to be a thousand more | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
doctors over the next five years? There is an overemphasis | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
on GPs here. We are talking about primary | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
care professionals. They are just dealing | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
with things the pharmacists Plaid Cymru are pressing this is a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
victory for them. They are calling for 5000 new nurses. We likely see | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that? That is half the story. We have more | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
doctors in Wales than ever but it has to go hand in hand with | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
pharmacists and practice nurses. Plaid Cymru are saying a thousand. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
That is for them to explain. When they talk about a thousand doctors, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
GPs? Orthopaedic surgeons? Because we don't understand the detail my | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the party can reach an agreement. We want to make sure Wales is an | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
attractive place for all primary care professionals. You have too | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
remembered this was an agreement to move us forward last week. It isn't | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a coalition agreement. The parties will disagree. Are you at Cross | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
wires on certain areas? Plaid Cymru are saying they have got the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
national infrastructure commission which they are trumpeting as a huge | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
deal in accessing money from financial markets. Is that your | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
understanding? No, we have not gone into detail. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Should you have done that? That is for Plaid Cymru to come forward with | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
ideas. We would not set up a quango. There is a difference of opinion on | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the M4 Black Root. What are your thoughts their? | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Batters got a process to go through. There will be a public enquiry. It | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is important is that enquiry looks at all the issues. We will not | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
support of the blue route because it is a dual carriageway and there's no | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
point in replacing one Doukara trip with another. It is a much cheaper | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
than the black route. The blue route runs past thousands of people in | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
their houses. Quite often, past their front doors. Anybody who | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
supported that wouldn't win a seat in new parts for generations. Is the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
blue route that? It is a serious election issue in Newport. People | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
used to tell me they don't want a motorway past their doors. The Black | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
route is the route that is being perceived. We will have to see | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
whether public enquiry says. Let's see what that inquiry's conclusions | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
are. If you're in position after this inquiry when it is just you | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
supporting the black roots, would you be happy accepting the support | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of the Conservatives? We don't know what the inquiry will show. If it | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
turns round and says it is on something it should happen, we're | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
back to the drawing board. We have to wait and see what the inquiry | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
says. Have a look at the conclusions of that inquiry and take a decision | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
then. So, wait and see. Carwyn Jones there, with his view | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
on what we can expect The Leader of the Opposition | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to his plans, on paper at least, the leader of Plaid Cymru, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Leanne Wood is here with me now. We have seen Carwyn Jones rolling | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
back on e-cigarettes, the number of councils in Wales. What you make of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that curve Mac it is good to see some movement on some things that I | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
have to say I was disappointed overall to see the First Minister | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
sounding exactly the same as the First Minister in the last | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
administration. The way that he talked about the M4, for example, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
and is question about Plaid Cymru's commitment to getting an extra | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
thousand doctors. It is an important point is to us. We are moving away | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
from the agreements we made last week. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Is he really acting exactly as he did before the election? This | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
morning he said there is no point banging our heads on the brick wall, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we have to understand supporters in there across the Assembly. We | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
haven't got a monopoly on good ideas come he said. We are hearing some | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
positive words but they are not being backed up by the action. What | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
I saw in the interview there were still battle of the loft the Nile. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
He said there that Wales has more doctors than we've ever had before. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
That doesn't take away from the fact we have still got fewer doctors per | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
head than any other country in the UK. Any other country barges to in | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the whole of the EU. The reason we have prioritised doctors and the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
reason why doctors were named and the training of doctors, that is an | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
important point, what we have moved on in this agreement is the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
principle that we do need to train more doctors and that is imposed on | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is for training facilities and we will be pushing for a medical school | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in Bangor. But then I know details. That is what Carwyn Jones said. Now | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
he is in place as First Minister, you have reached the agreement, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
without any details that is so much wiggle room you will end up getting | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
far short of what you were hoping. After the agreement was announced, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
you were singing we have got nine key priorities but you are a long | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
way away from what he wants. The danger faces the government if | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
they continue to be intransigent because they need the support of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
another party to get their budget through. The way they tarnished and | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
try to smear Plaid Cymru after having the Conservatives and Ukip | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
voting with this, tells me it would be difficult for them to look for | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
support from either of those two parties. One of the criteria that I | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
will be looking at when we consider whether or not we support the budget | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in the future is how much progress is being made this agreement we have | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
made week. If we see no progress, or if we seek backing down from that | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
agreement, we will be having to consider carefully what we do with | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
our votes. There are these three committees looking at those various | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
deals. Let's try and iron out a few of them. On doctors, is there a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
minimum and which you won't go? Are you still hoping to get a thousand | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
extra doctors, 5000 extra nurses? We want 1000 doctors. The reason why is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we have fewer doctors per head than so many other EU countries. We want | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to get Wales and the only way we can tackle waiting list is by having | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
more people full stop he was saying you don't know what kind of doctors | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
you want. We have made it very clear exactly how we want that mix-up of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
doctors and health care professionals to look. If he hasn't | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
been briefed on that I suggest he needs to. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
What about an infrastructure commission? It was this huge new | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
body, gets money from financial markets. Carwyn Jones said you | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
weren't getting this quango. We never said it was going to be a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
quango. And arm's-length body? We have agreed to set one up and | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that was the agreements we made last week in order to allow him to be | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
elected as First Minister. For Plaid Cymru support on future votes | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
including registration and budgets, I expect to see some progress and no | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
dig Andy agreements. -- reneging. How can you renege on an agreements | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
without any details? It is called a compact. But there | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
are no details. There is an agreements to see | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
progress on five of Plaid Cymru smack pledges. I am not saying each | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of those five are full. If the agreement is kept but there will be | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
progress on five of those commitments. What I want to see at | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the end of this term is progress made on all nine and indeed more of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the policy commitment in our manifesto. At the end of the day | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
this country needs to seek progress and I spent the election saying, if | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
we carry on doing what we have always done we will get what we've | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
always got. It does seem to be stalemate on the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
M4 Black route was up Carwyn Jones said I am willing to negotiate on | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
e-cigarettes, councils but not on blue route. He said, no. What | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
happens there? He has the option of going to the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Conservatives for support. There are political consequences to doing | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that. I have always said that the Black route is too expensive, it | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
causes too many environmental problems and it focuses all our | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
borrowing capacity on one part of Wales where there is need in other | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
parts. I am not intransigent on this. I will be prepared to look at | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
other options but not that black roots. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
So it is back to the drawing board. When Ieuan Jones was in charge of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
transport he held an enquiry and that inquiry showed that black Blues | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
would not reduce the traffic and just in overtime. Why would we want | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to spend in excess of the billion pounds on a project that doesn't | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
actually achieve... Plaid Cymru won't support the Black route. If | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the government wanted to go ahead, it has to have the support of the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
loan Liberal Democrats and the Tories. I would say, good luck to | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that. Just one quick question. Is there a danger you have been conned? | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Looking at health, doctors, the issue of a commission. Have you been | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
conned? I don't think so. I guess time will | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
tell. When we see the way in which the Assembly pans out of the next | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
five years I think we will arrive at the end of the process realising | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Plaid Cymru has had a lot of power in this term. Thank you very much | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
for your time. Well, all this excitement has | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
been a bit much for us, so we're taking a little holiday | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
next week and will be But we're going to end today | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
on a bit of music, reflecting all the ups and downs | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
since the election. This is from my colleague at BBC | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Wales Online, Phil John. Something to tide you over | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
until we meet again. # Having to spend each day | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the colour of the leaves # Let me be the one | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
you're looking for # I'm on the top of the world | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
looking down on creation # I'm on the How top of the world | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
looking down on creation # And the only | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
explanation I can find # This town ain't big | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
enough for the both of us # And it ain't me | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
who's going to leave # Turned around and smiled at me, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
do you get the picture? # That's when I fell | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
for the leader of the pack # But everybody's changing and I | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
don't feel the same. it is therefore the public | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
as well as serving a useful purpose of actually being | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
able to get across. To you both, thank you very much | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
indeed. And with that, it is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
back to you, Andrew. Treasury warnings on Brexit, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is Labour on course for 2020, and are there enough women | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in the referendum campaign? And joining me and my panel | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of so-called experts, is the former Deputy Leader | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of the Labour Party Harriet Harman. Wellcome, it is nice to see you | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
again. The Treasury has already told us how bad the economy will be in | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
2030, but nobody really knows. This is about, in their view, the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
immediate impact on interest rates, mortgages, jobs, house prices, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
before the autumn is out. This I would suggest is politically more | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
significant? Yes, and it is absolutely the Remain campaign's | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
biggest howitzer which is why they are firing it now. This is the last | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
time they can deploy the full mast ranks of the government's resources | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
into the campaign. Most people disagree passionately in this | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
campaign about whether over the long-term the British economy will | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
prosper or not outside the EU. Pretty much everybody, I think apart | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
from Boris Johnson has admits it there might be some short-term | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
problems. It is the same with retail. We have heard from the Prime | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Minister today. And mortgages, smacking people as hard as they can | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
in their pockets. Even Boris Johnson said there would be a fall because | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
he hopes it will go up. People may be nervous that when they get onto | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that tick it does not stop falling. It will be a difficult one for the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Leave campaign? Guess, and I am picking up a lot of concern in the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
various Brexit camps. They look as if they have conceded the argument | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
on the economy. Of course, they emphatically argue the opposite | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
direction is that we can do even better out, but there is a lot of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
concern among those who want to leave, that those who are | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
representing them in these campaigns, are not putting the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
argument strongly enough and are almost backing of it which is why we | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
are hearing arguments about Turkey and immigration and other things. I | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
think Leave has to come out really strongly and rebut what the Treasury | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is saying point by point, whether it is on food prices, and there is a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
compelling argument that the Common Agricultural Policy example | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
massively distorts prices. Food may not be more expensive when we come | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
out so we need to rebut it line by line. -- they need to rebut it. The | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
polling suggests if you are worried about the economy you will more | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
likely to vote Remain, if you are more worried about public services, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
you will be more likely to vote Leave. This will create a sense of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
economic uncertainty? Yes, and it will be interesting if they make a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
GDP prediction. We are talking about food prices and employment but will | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
they predict a technical recession in GDP which I imagine will happen | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
if we vote to leave. The Bank of England has admitted that is a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
possibility. I can think of people who are very high up in British | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
public life who are downplaying their view about how bad the GDP | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
crisis will be in the short-term. I agree with Isobel, it is strange to | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
concede the short-term economic argument. You cannot say here is the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
reality of a short-term recession. In return, there is the prospect of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a longer-term economic benefit which realises in 2030. Labour does not | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
normally think very much of Tory forecasts. Will you accept this? We | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
are very concerned about jobs and prices and we are very concerned | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
about the cavalier sense that it might be a bit of a problem in the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
short-term but it will be fine in the long-term, two reasons. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Obviously, the Treasury forecasts will be very well worth picking | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
through and looking through and will be very persuasive. As far as the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
short-term is concerned, we are trying to find our way out of a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
global financial crisis, and the idea that it would not cause major | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
uncertainty and instability to leave an economic union that we have been | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
part of four decades, it is a no-brainer even before tomorrow. You | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
think the short-term is a problem if we vote to leave? It will be a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
problem about jobs, a problem about prices. Why on earth would we want | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to try and distance ourselves from this biggest trading block of 500 | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
million people. Why would we want to struggle for keeping our head above | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
water in the longer term when we are in the EU as we are? I think it is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
cavalier from people who are not worried about prices and to feel | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
happy that their jobs are fine, let's make this bid for freedom. I | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
think it is reckless. Reckless? I think there is an accession among | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the Remain camp and it is interesting that Harriet brings this | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
up, constantly bringing up trade associations. We can trade without | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
trade deals. We talk about the Remain camp focuses highly on the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
importance of the trade deals have, but we are a service economy run | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
airily, and those trade deals do not cover the service sector. We can | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
trade but if you look without trade deals, that means paying tariffs, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
for example. If you look at the food in our supermarkets which comes in | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
from Europe, they can put tariffs on that to make it cost more, and why | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
wouldn't they, if we opt out of that free trade area? They would not put | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
tariffs on food coming into Britain. We might do that, but they would not | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
do that. We would take off the tariffs from the food that comes | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
from America, Australia and New Zealand. We are in an established | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
range of trading which has been going on for decades and has seen | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
food prices going down. That is a big issue if you are on a low | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
income. Why would we take that risk? The former chief executives of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
supermarkets, and they have not got any skin in the game because they | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
are former chief executives, they have said because of these | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
established arrangements, prices are likely to go up. We will hear more | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
of that this week with the Treasury report which is coming out tomorrow | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
morning. Talking about the economy, let's hear a word from John | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor about Labour in the economy. This is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
what he had to say yesterday. Our whole society could do so much | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
better than we are at the moment. What we have attempted over the last | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
eight months is to lay out the framework by which Labour can | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
win the next election, and then set about the fundamental | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
business of transforming capitalism. We should aim at nothing | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
less than that. So, socialism in one parliament, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
that must excite you? He is talking about a new economic policy which | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
will talk about fairness and investment and he says we will be on | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
a listening exercise as they put the flesh on the bones. He is talking | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
about remaking capitalism, not reforming it, not liberalising it, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
remaking capitalism. Is that realistic? I think there is a bit of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
remaking to be done, for example, remaking the responsibilities of big | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
businesses to repay their taxes, do we think it is all sorted? It is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
certainly not. Every government tells me they will put more | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
apprentices and you look carefully and they don't really. This | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
government, a lot of the apprentices are not what the Germans or | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Austrians would regard as apprentices. Chasing that tax seems | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
to be in a never-ending chase as you try and close the loopholes. Because | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
it has not necessarily been done so far, and all credit to Margaret | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Hodge and the Public Accounts Committee in exposing all of this, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
does not mean it cannot be done. We could have lots more investment if | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
people paid their tax and we could have much more prosperity in the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
economy, but he is recognising we have to convince people that they | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
can trust us on the economy. Are you happy with the direction he is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
taking you? I think the principles he is setting out is right. We got | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the wrong answer in the general election last time and we got to be | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the opposition rather than the government, and we have to get a | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
different answer next time and that means convincing the public. It is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
about setting up a framework that also making sure we are listening to | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
what the public's concerns are about us, not what we want to hear but | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
what they are saying. You don't think there are enough women | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
involved in the referendum campaign? Would it not be fair to say that it | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is really the Remain side which has the female problem. The Leave site | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
has Gisela Stuart, Kate Hoey, pretty Patel, Penny Mordaunt and so on. It | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
is your side which is lacking the women -- pretty Patel. There is | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
hardly anything between either side. Really? Could you | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
hardly anything between either side. that? One of the things we are | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
hardly anything between either side. saying is actually, being in the EU | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
has helped back-up women at work. It is paradoxical, and it might seem | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
unlikely, but the EU has been a strong friend to women at work and | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
these directives which governments always do not like, either Labour | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
these directives which governments the Tories don't like the idea of | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
directives from Europe, but they have been backing up part-time | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
workers... I understand have been backing up part-time | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
am looking at the fact have been backing up part-time | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
said there are not enough have been backing up part-time | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
voices in the campaign. Do you agree with that? I would agree with you. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
voices in the campaign. Do you agree The Leave women are pretty loud. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Where is The Leave women are pretty loud. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
single biggest female voice and she is almost mute. The idea that the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Leave side is in some post feminist political nirvana is for the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
absolute birds. political nirvana is for the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Leave side I think of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage and | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Leave side I think of Boris Johnson to think about it. I just gave | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Leave side I think of Boris Johnson prominent women campaigners. Are you | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Leave side I think of Boris Johnson haven? No, I don't think they would | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
know what that is. haven? No, I don't think they would | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
work out if haven? No, I don't think they would | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the EU is a beacon haven? No, I don't think they would | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
equality. I would like you to look at this. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
equality. I would like you to look in the European Union. Something | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
probably strikes you about that. Where is the gender equality in the | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
EU in the top seven jobs? That is why it is an irony that actually, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
the directives and European court judgments have backed up women at | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
work. Except in the EU itself? But if you look at the Treaty of Rome, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
which was very much ahead of its time, saying you have to pay women | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
equally and treat women equally... It is do as I say, not as I do. It | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
looks like a boys' club up there. It is do as I say, not as I do. It | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
And the other thing that strikes me about this row of men. Who | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
those people? Could you even recognise one of them? I do know who | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
they are and I don't like the fact they are all men... That tells | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
about the EU and our sovereignty. No, it does not. The directives from | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Europe have backed up women at work, No, it does not. The directives from | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
part-timers, low-paid women, women having babies. If | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
part-timers, low-paid women, women would have done it, more better. Why | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
haven't they read the directives? would have done it, more better. Why | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
don't know who they are. That speaks for itself. They | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
don't know who they are. That speaks think should be running us and you | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
don't know who they are! I am think should be running us and you | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
talking about the facts of the impact for women at work about us | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
being in the EU and our rights on maternity and equal pay. The | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
directives have helped us even when our own government have not. They do | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
not seem to have got the message. You have picked them at random! No, | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
they are not! Bayard the top seven jobs in the EU. Ranks to all our | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
guests, good to see Harry it back. -- thanks to all our guests, good to | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
see Harry it back. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday | 2:52:32 | 2:52:31 | |
Politics, unless it is the Whitsun bank holiday. | 2:52:32 | 2:52:32 |