Browse content similar to 16/10/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Boris Johnson hosts a summit of allies in London | :00:38. | :00:43. | |
to discuss how to broker a peace settlement in Syria. | :00:44. | :00:47. | |
But as war continues to rage, could "no-bomb zones" - | :00:48. | :00:50. | |
thought to be backed by the Foreign Secretary - | :00:51. | :00:52. | |
protect civilians, and how would they work? | :00:53. | :00:56. | |
We were told by the Remain campaign that a vote to leave the EU would | :00:57. | :00:59. | |
But with the economy growing and employment at record | :01:00. | :01:05. | |
Can Theresa May make a decision on airport expansion | :01:06. | :01:09. | |
without triggering a Conservative cabinet bust-up | :01:10. | :01:12. | |
Later in the programme. as the PM prepares to choose | :01:13. | :01:23. | |
What next for Plaid as Dafydd Elis Thomas leaves the party? | :01:24. | :01:25. | |
And more free childcare is promised in this week's budget, | :01:26. | :01:30. | |
And more free childcare is promised on whether to expand Heathrow, is | :01:31. | :01:32. | |
Brexit causing uncertainty in the aviation sector? | :01:33. | :01:37. | |
All that to come before 12.15 - and the Scottish Secretary, David | :01:38. | :01:40. | |
Mundell, on Nicola Sturgeon's plans for a second referendum | :01:41. | :01:43. | |
And with me throughout - Tom Newtown Dunn, | :01:44. | :01:48. | |
Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards. | :01:49. | :01:51. | |
They'll all be tweeting their thoughts and comments | :01:52. | :01:53. | |
So, in just over an hour, the Foreign Secretary, | :01:54. | :01:59. | |
Boris Johnson, will host a meeting of foreign allies in London, | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
including US Secretary of State John Kerry, | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
to discuss military options in Syria. | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
Last week, Mr Johnson said the public mood had changed | :02:09. | :02:11. | |
after relentless bomb attacks on Aleppo | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
and that more "kinetic action" might be possible. | :02:15. | :02:23. | |
Has the public mood changed on Syria? There is a desire to end the | :02:24. | :02:30. | |
horror, but has the public mood really changed? Not really. When | :02:31. | :02:35. | |
asked, the Public say that something must be done and we must stop the | :02:36. | :02:40. | |
slaughter, but when also asked whether to put British troops there, | :02:41. | :02:46. | |
they say, probably not. We have a new Foreign Secretary and British | :02:47. | :02:50. | |
government, and we will have a new White House come January for sure. | :02:51. | :02:54. | |
So there is a feeling that what has gone so far in terms of not | :02:55. | :03:00. | |
intervening, not trying to oppose or block Putin from doing what he wants | :03:01. | :03:05. | |
in Syria has failed, so time to try something else. There was talk of a | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
no-fly zone. There's not so much talk about it now. Now there's | :03:11. | :03:17. | |
suddenly a no-bomb zone. Are we clear what that would be? It is | :03:18. | :03:21. | |
meaningless without a no-fly zone and no one is willing to enforce it. | :03:22. | :03:27. | |
For me, the biggest issue is, what is the point of the United Nations? | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
With Russia vetoing any possible peace plan, we are in a situation | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
where we are basically handing over our moral authority in the world for | :03:37. | :03:40. | |
dealing with humanitarian disasters and war crimes being committed by | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
the side regime and Putin to an organisation which is controlled by | :03:46. | :03:50. | |
Putin effectively because he has a veto on the Security Council. The | :03:51. | :04:02. | |
situation is untenable. We cannot sit and pretend we don't want to be | :04:03. | :04:05. | |
involved in this war. We are already at war, and we will be at war. We | :04:06. | :04:08. | |
need to get to grips with it sooner or later. If we are willing to say | :04:09. | :04:11. | |
that we don't care about Syrian children dying... But we are not | :04:12. | :04:15. | |
willing to say that, so we need to do something about it. We could care | :04:16. | :04:21. | |
deeply but admits there is not something we can do about it. | :04:22. | :04:27. | |
Indeed. When Julia says "Get involved", that does not translate | :04:28. | :04:32. | |
to anything precise or specific. The problem is you go round in circles | :04:33. | :04:38. | |
when it comes to reaction, because when people are then asked what the | :04:39. | :04:43. | |
endgame is - and you do need to have a sense of the end and an aim, and | :04:44. | :04:49. | |
one of the problems with Iraq was that there was not that - you can | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
simply say, something needs to be done and we are involved and there | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
should be military action, but that raises 10,000 other questions which | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
no one is capable of answering. As I understand it, the no-bomb zone | :05:05. | :05:06. | |
would be that we would designate areas where no bombing would be | :05:07. | :05:11. | |
allowed. We wouldn't have planes to stop it happening, but if bombing | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
did happen in those areas, we would use missiles to take out Syrian | :05:17. | :05:21. | |
infrastructure. It seems complicated, and to not take into | :05:22. | :05:27. | |
account what we would do if the Russians put anti-missile batteries | :05:28. | :05:29. | |
around this Syrian infrastructure, as well they might. And you could go | :05:30. | :05:36. | |
one step further. Your understanding is the same as mine. Doing something | :05:37. | :05:41. | |
to prevent drops being -- ones being dropped in that area, but without | :05:42. | :05:48. | |
engaging with Russia. You could fire cruise missiles into a runway, which | :05:49. | :05:55. | |
we were warned could be done, but the problem is, you could have a | :05:56. | :05:59. | |
Russian jet in the middle of that runway, or a bus of school kids. We | :06:00. | :06:05. | |
know that they are capable of doing that. You are looking towards a | :06:06. | :06:10. | |
confrontation with Russia, what ever you do. Boris Johnson would say this | :06:11. | :06:13. | |
is the kind of HARDtalk we need to get the man to listen, because | :06:14. | :06:19. | |
everything else has failed. Mr Kerry being there is significant, but at | :06:20. | :06:23. | |
this stage in the election cycle, it's hard to sue what -- see what Mr | :06:24. | :06:34. | |
Obama would do. We have no idea what to reason may's foreign policy is in | :06:35. | :06:39. | |
terms of intervention. The last thing she would want to do is to get | :06:40. | :06:46. | |
involved in a Middle Eastern war. But we are already involved. And the | :06:47. | :06:50. | |
idea that our entire foreign policy should be based on not having a | :06:51. | :06:56. | |
conflict in the Putin... The West as a whole is not wanting to have a | :06:57. | :07:00. | |
conflict with him, and that is why he is acting how he is. | :07:01. | :07:06. | |
Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has repeated her | :07:07. | :07:09. | |
warning that, if the UK leaves the single market, she will push for | :07:10. | :07:12. | |
Speaking to Andrew Marr earlier this morning, Ms Sturgeon said | :07:13. | :07:16. | |
she would not hesitate to protect Scotland's economic interests. | :07:17. | :07:18. | |
There's a principle here about, you know, | :07:19. | :07:20. | |
Does what we think, and what we say, and how | :07:21. | :07:23. | |
And that's what's going to be put to the test, I think, | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
Theresa May, perfectly legitimately, says she values the UK, | :07:28. | :07:30. | |
In the Independence Referendum, Scotland was told repeatedly | :07:31. | :07:34. | |
My message to the Prime Minister is, it's now time to prove these | :07:35. | :07:40. | |
things, and demonstrate to Scotland that our voice does count | :07:41. | :07:42. | |
within the UK, and our interests can be protected. | :07:43. | :07:45. | |
Because if that's not the case, then I think Scotland | :07:46. | :07:47. | |
would have the right to decide whether it wanted to follow | :07:48. | :07:50. | |
I've been joined by the Secretary of State for Scotland, David Mundell. | :07:51. | :07:59. | |
Welcome to the Sunday Politics. During the Scottish referendum | :08:00. | :08:07. | |
campaign, two years ago, the ETA Together campaign claimed that the | :08:08. | :08:10. | |
only guaranteed way for Scotland to remain in the EU was to stay in the | :08:11. | :08:18. | |
UK. That turned out to be untrue. You owe the people of Scotland an | :08:19. | :08:23. | |
apology. That isn't the full facts. It was made clear during the | :08:24. | :08:28. | |
referendum in Scotland that there could be an EU referendum. Ruth | :08:29. | :08:34. | |
Davidson, on many occasions, made it clear that people in Scotland would | :08:35. | :08:37. | |
have the opportunity to vote on whether or not they remained in the | :08:38. | :08:42. | |
EU. What was clear in that referendum, and you played a | :08:43. | :08:47. | |
significant part in highlighting it, was that those who were advocating a | :08:48. | :08:51. | |
yes vote could not set out a clear route for Scotland to get into the | :08:52. | :08:57. | |
EU as an independent nation. They were told if they stayed in the UK, | :08:58. | :09:02. | |
that was their best route to remaining in Europe. It turned out, | :09:03. | :09:08. | |
it is obvious that that was untrue. It was a route that meant there was | :09:09. | :09:12. | |
going to be an EU referendum. That was made very clear throughout that. | :09:13. | :09:18. | |
People voted in Scotland decisively to remain part of the UK in full | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
knowledge that there would be a referendum on whether the United | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
Kingdom remained in the European Union. That is what the vote on the | :09:28. | :09:31. | |
23rd of June in Scotland was about. It was about the UK remaining in the | :09:32. | :09:36. | |
EU, not Scotland. The people of Scotland were told to vote for the | :09:37. | :09:39. | |
union to be sure of staying in the UK. They also voted 62% to 38% to | :09:40. | :09:48. | |
stay in the EU. Now they are being dragged out against their will. | :09:49. | :09:53. | |
Surely that is grounds for a second Scottish referendum? I don't accept | :09:54. | :09:58. | |
that. I've voted to stay in the EU, but I didn't do so on the basis that | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
if I didn't get my own way that Scotland would be dragged out of the | :10:03. | :10:07. | |
United Kingdom. We have had a once in a generation vote as to whether | :10:08. | :10:14. | |
Scotland remained part of the UK. There was a decisive result in that. | :10:15. | :10:18. | |
On the assumption that we would also remain part of the European Union, | :10:19. | :10:24. | |
so a major change has taken place. I don't accept that analysis. People | :10:25. | :10:27. | |
were told that there would be a vote on whether the UK remained in the | :10:28. | :10:32. | |
EU. The reasons for Scotland remaining in the UK were | :10:33. | :10:36. | |
overwhelmingly economic, and those issues remain today in relation to | :10:37. | :10:41. | |
the UK single market. It is very odd that people who are concerned about | :10:42. | :10:43. | |
the EU single market are quite willing to | :10:44. | :11:01. | |
give up the UK single market, which is four times as valuable to | :11:02. | :11:03. | |
Scotland, and responsible for a million jobs. If the Scottish | :11:04. | :11:05. | |
Government demands another referendum, will the UK Government | :11:06. | :11:07. | |
grant it? The UK Government will have two agreed to a referendum, but | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
we want to argue that there shouldn't be another referendum. It | :11:12. | :11:17. | |
is in Scotland's best interests at the two governments work together | :11:18. | :11:21. | |
with 18 UK approach to get the best possible situation for Scotland... | :11:22. | :11:25. | |
If the Scottish Parliament decides that we do want -- we do not like | :11:26. | :11:33. | |
the terms of Brexit and we want another referendum, would you grant | :11:34. | :11:37. | |
it? There would have to be an agreement between the two | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
governments in the same form as the Edinburgh Agreement. The great shame | :11:43. | :11:45. | |
of the Edinburgh Agreement, which the SNP used to quote repeatedly, is | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
that they have not adhere to it, because a fundamental part of that | :11:51. | :11:55. | |
would be that both sides would respect the result. Viewers will | :11:56. | :11:59. | |
notice that you haven't really answered my question. Could Scotland | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
remain inside the single market in Europe as part of the Brexit | :12:05. | :12:08. | |
process? From the outset, I have said we would listen to any proposal | :12:09. | :12:13. | |
that the Scottish Government brought forward in relation to Scotland's | :12:14. | :12:18. | |
interests. We have had for months and no specific proposals have come | :12:19. | :12:22. | |
forward. Nicola Sturgeon was talking about proposals this morning, but at | :12:23. | :12:27. | |
this moment, I see it impossible that Scotland could remain within | :12:28. | :12:34. | |
the EU whilst the rest of the UK leads. It would be difficult to see | :12:35. | :12:37. | |
how that could be achieved. But we will listen to any proposals the | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
Scottish Government bring forward in relation to achieving the best | :12:42. | :12:46. | |
interests of Scotland. I am convinced that Scotland's best | :12:47. | :12:50. | |
interests are being part of the UK. You praised Scotland's membership of | :12:51. | :12:56. | |
the single market during the referendum. In March of this year | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
you said it secured jobs, was vital to tourism and industry, inbound | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
visitors and the rest of it. So why would you not want to retain it for | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
Scotland? I agree with the benefits Scotland has received from the | :13:11. | :13:15. | |
single market, but we are in a different situation now. The UK is | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
negotiating its exit from the EU. The Prime Minister has said it is | :13:21. | :13:24. | |
not going to be on the basis of existing arrangements, it will be on | :13:25. | :13:29. | |
the basis of a new arrangement, and as part of that, we will want to | :13:30. | :13:34. | |
secure the best arrangement for Scottish businesses. Given the | :13:35. | :13:40. | |
history we have gone through, do you want to guarantee a special post | :13:41. | :13:43. | |
Brexit status for Scotland. We leave the EU, but Scotland will have a | :13:44. | :13:49. | |
distinct status? I'm willing to look at any proposal brought forward that | :13:50. | :13:54. | |
looks at Scotland's interests. We have had no specifics from the | :13:55. | :13:58. | |
Scottish Government. They say now that they have them. It is a bit rum | :13:59. | :14:07. | |
to attack the Scottish Government. The principle is, could Scotland | :14:08. | :14:10. | |
have a special position, and would you help that or not? I am willing | :14:11. | :14:17. | |
to listen to any proposal brought forward. Will fishing and farming go | :14:18. | :14:21. | |
back to Edinburgh? The devolution settlement are going to be a | :14:22. | :14:27. | |
change,... Will they go to Edinburgh or to London? We will have a | :14:28. | :14:34. | |
decision at the end of that process. I want to make sure we have the best | :14:35. | :14:40. | |
arrangement for Scotland. You can't answer the question? We want to | :14:41. | :14:44. | |
listen to what fishermen and farmers say, and the people of Scotland. It | :14:45. | :14:50. | |
will be a package of arrangements, clearly, that need to be taken | :14:51. | :14:55. | |
forward as a result of leaving the EU. One final question. If the | :14:56. | :14:59. | |
Scottish Nationalist MPs vote against grammar schools, which are | :15:00. | :15:04. | |
purely for England, isn't that proof that your English votes for English | :15:05. | :15:06. | |
laws isn't working? It demonstrates all MPs in the | :15:07. | :15:16. | |
Parliament have the opportunity to vote on all issues. You wouldn't | :15:17. | :15:21. | |
mind if they voted to stop Grammar schools? Of course I wouldn't -- | :15:22. | :15:32. | |
would mind... I think we have got the balance right in that | :15:33. | :15:40. | |
legislation. It is meaningless if they can vote to stop grammar | :15:41. | :15:43. | |
schools when it doesn't affect Scotland. They have to answer for | :15:44. | :15:49. | |
that, based on an opportunistic approach and cause resentment in | :15:50. | :15:53. | |
England. Thank you for being with us. | :15:54. | :15:54. | |
During the EU Referendum campaign, leading Remain supporters repeatedly | :15:55. | :15:56. | |
warned that a vote to leave the European Union would cause | :15:57. | :15:59. | |
Three months on, were their forecasts accurate? | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
Since the vote on June 23rd, the economic news | :16:04. | :16:08. | |
The value of the pound has been in pretty steady depreciation | :16:09. | :16:11. | |
since referendum day, falling to a 31-year | :16:12. | :16:13. | |
It was as low as $1.18 but has still rebounded a bit. | :16:14. | :16:22. | |
The weak pound left Tesco in a situation. | :16:23. | :16:25. | |
They stopped selling Marmite and other products for a day online | :16:26. | :16:28. | |
And a leaked Treasury report said that Government tax revenues | :16:29. | :16:32. | |
could be down by 66 billion a year in a post-Brexit economy. | :16:33. | :16:35. | |
Though the report emanated from Project Fear days. | :16:36. | :16:43. | |
However, many of the short-term economic fundamentals | :16:44. | :16:44. | |
The dominant service sector grew a healthy 0.4% in July. | :16:45. | :16:52. | |
In the same month, the unemployment rate dipped to under 5%, | :16:53. | :16:55. | |
House-buying has also been rising since the referendum, | :16:56. | :17:01. | |
nearly 110,000 properties were purchased in August. | :17:02. | :17:04. | |
Is the economy already suffering from the Brexit blues or not? | :17:05. | :17:11. | |
Joining me now is the former shadow Europe Minister, | :17:12. | :17:14. | |
the Labour MP Pat McFadden, who was a Business Minister | :17:15. | :17:16. | |
Do you know concede that nearly all the short-term economic forecasts | :17:17. | :17:30. | |
made by the Remain campaign have turned out to be untrue at best, | :17:31. | :17:35. | |
scaremongering at worst? No, I think this week was the week that the | :17:36. | :17:40. | |
beginnings of the economic effects of Brexit began to take hold, most | :17:41. | :17:45. | |
obviously on the currency fall. You talk about short-term, this began on | :17:46. | :17:49. | |
the night of the referendum itself and was given booster rockets by the | :17:50. | :17:54. | |
signals sent out by the Conservative Party conference. In terms of the | :17:55. | :17:59. | |
warnings next to reality, the warnings about the fall of the | :18:00. | :18:03. | |
currency speculated that it might fall in value by about 12%, the | :18:04. | :18:09. | |
reality is closer to 20%. Let's look at some of the warnings. We will | :18:10. | :18:18. | |
come back to the currency, but let's look at this. The Treasury report on | :18:19. | :18:20. | |
maybe 23rd said the following: That turned out to be untrue, didn't | :18:21. | :18:34. | |
it? What has happened here, which isn't in line with those warnings, | :18:35. | :18:39. | |
is consumer confidence has remained high. The actions of the Bank of | :18:40. | :18:42. | |
England in cutting interest have been important, so the short-term | :18:43. | :18:46. | |
effect in terms of consumer confidence... So it is wrong? Hasn't | :18:47. | :18:55. | |
turned out in line with that, but it would be complacent in the extreme | :18:56. | :18:58. | |
to conclude that with the effects of the currency which we know also from | :18:59. | :19:02. | |
the Bank of England's comments the other dates will feed into higher | :19:03. | :19:08. | |
prices, which will hit lower income consumers hardest. But we don't know | :19:09. | :19:16. | |
yet, I will come onto that but in the short term, I will show you | :19:17. | :19:20. | |
another one. A month before the referendum, the Chancellor George | :19:21. | :19:22. | |
Osborne said this: That turned out to be wronged too, | :19:23. | :19:35. | |
didn't it? We are not in recession but if you look at the forecasts of | :19:36. | :19:39. | |
growth over the next few years, the Bank of England have forecast growth | :19:40. | :19:44. | |
next year to not be the 2.3% it thought before the referendum but to | :19:45. | :19:53. | |
be 0.8%. Is it forecasting a recession? No, but it is forecasting | :19:54. | :19:58. | |
a slowdown which would mean GDP after two years would be for the ?5 | :19:59. | :20:03. | |
billion less than the estimates before the referendum took place. | :20:04. | :20:07. | |
And it might be wrong, because look, it was wrong about the recession. Is | :20:08. | :20:14. | |
anybody now forecasting a recession? I don't know if anybody is | :20:15. | :20:19. | |
forecasting a recession. The IMF are certainly forecasting a slowdown in | :20:20. | :20:22. | |
a similar way to the Bank of England. George Osborne also said | :20:23. | :20:29. | |
house prices will plummet by 18%. Any sign of that? House prices are | :20:30. | :20:37. | |
not plummeting by 18%. Your side that you represent made much of the | :20:38. | :20:41. | |
IMF's claim that provoked Leave would mean an immediate slide into | :20:42. | :20:46. | |
recession, a collapse in house prices, and a crash in stock markets | :20:47. | :20:53. | |
which of course are currently at record levels. Even the IMF admits | :20:54. | :21:01. | |
there is none of that. There maybe longer term dangers but in the | :21:02. | :21:06. | |
short-term it happen. In the short-term it didn't happen. In the | :21:07. | :21:10. | |
short term what has happened here, as I said a moment ago, is consumer | :21:11. | :21:15. | |
confidence has remained high, the Bank of England cut interest rates | :21:16. | :21:19. | |
which put more money into people's pockets and I think the action they | :21:20. | :21:24. | |
took was important, but I think it would be wrong to say imply that | :21:25. | :21:28. | |
because these things haven't happened in the first few months | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
that we are somehow out of the woods on the economy. I understand that, | :21:34. | :21:37. | |
that's the last thing I would say, but here's the question - most of | :21:38. | :21:41. | |
these forecasters are still pretty gloomy about the long-term but if | :21:42. | :21:45. | |
they couldn't get the last few months right, why would you trust | :21:46. | :21:51. | |
them for 2025 when they couldn't say what will happen in September? Why | :21:52. | :21:57. | |
would you trust them to say what happens five years from now? People | :21:58. | :22:03. | |
will ask the question but the big tangible we have is in the decline | :22:04. | :22:09. | |
of the currency and that is a real and now effect. We can talk about | :22:10. | :22:14. | |
whether it is lost or minus, but the Government said the other day this | :22:15. | :22:18. | |
would bring inflation back, to use his words it is going to get | :22:19. | :22:22. | |
difficult, particularly for people on lower incomes and that will feed | :22:23. | :22:27. | |
into people's purchasing power. The international markets partaking of | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
you have our future prospects and at the moment it is not a vote of | :22:32. | :22:37. | |
confidence. Do you agree with the latest Remain mantra that people | :22:38. | :22:41. | |
might have voted to leave the EU but didn't necessarily vote to leave the | :22:42. | :22:47. | |
single market? I do agree with that. A lot of people have said people who | :22:48. | :22:51. | |
voted to leave didn't know that's what they were voting for, so let me | :22:52. | :22:55. | |
show you a clip of David Cameron at the height of the referendum | :22:56. | :23:00. | |
campaign. The British public would be voting if we leave to leave the | :23:01. | :23:05. | |
EU and the single market, we then have to negotiate a trade deal from | :23:06. | :23:10. | |
outside with the European Union. There you have it loud and clear on | :23:11. | :23:15. | |
BBC television, voting Leave means leaving the single market, not | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
losing access to it but leaving the membership of it. We have George | :23:21. | :23:24. | |
Osborne on tape saying the same thing, so why do you make out Leave | :23:25. | :23:29. | |
voters didn't know what they were voting for? I think people voted | :23:30. | :23:34. | |
Leave for a number of different reasons. For some it might have been | :23:35. | :23:38. | |
immigration, for some it might have been the promise of more money for | :23:39. | :23:43. | |
the NHS, but there are number of countries outside the EU which can | :23:44. | :23:47. | |
have full access to the single market, we know about Norway and on. | :23:48. | :23:52. | |
But they all have to pay in and have free movement. We can come onto that | :23:53. | :23:58. | |
but what I'm saying is it's not the case that when you are outside the | :23:59. | :24:02. | |
EU you necessarily have to be outside the single market and the | :24:03. | :24:06. | |
reason this is important is because this has been a cornerstone of | :24:07. | :24:10. | |
British economic policy for many years, particularly in terms of our | :24:11. | :24:17. | |
inward investment, and the reasons why both manufacturing industry and | :24:18. | :24:20. | |
financial services has invested and created employment in the UK, and I | :24:21. | :24:26. | |
think it would be cavalier to begin this negotiation by closing the door | :24:27. | :24:31. | |
on that. Is it Labour's policy, I know you don't speak for Labour | :24:32. | :24:35. | |
leadership, but is it their policy to remain in the single market? You | :24:36. | :24:40. | |
are right, I'm a backbencher, but it is the policy to have as full access | :24:41. | :24:45. | |
as possible to the single market. At least what we have now in terms of | :24:46. | :24:52. | |
goods and services. You can call it membership or not but that is what | :24:53. | :24:55. | |
Keir Starmer and the Labour Party wants. The old party home affairs | :24:56. | :25:03. | |
select committee is blaming Jeremy Corbyn's lack of leadership for | :25:04. | :25:06. | |
creating a safe space for what they call vile anti-Semitism. Do you | :25:07. | :25:13. | |
agree with that? I think this report should be taken seriously. The | :25:14. | :25:17. | |
atmosphere in the Labour Party, there has been a lot of nasty things | :25:18. | :25:22. | |
said on social media over the past year in particular. I hope we don't | :25:23. | :25:27. | |
make the mistake of shooting the messenger, I hope we take the report | :25:28. | :25:31. | |
seriously and I hope we don't fall into the trap that sometimes I see | :25:32. | :25:35. | |
when these accusations are wielded, that we point to antiracism records | :25:36. | :25:41. | |
and say look at our virtue in our record here, that must mean we | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
cannot be anti-Semitic. Let me be clear about this, pointing to your | :25:47. | :25:50. | |
own sense of righteousness is no excuse for nastiness or cruelty to | :25:51. | :25:53. | |
someone else so we should take this very seriously indeed. Pat McFadden, | :25:54. | :25:59. | |
thank you for being with us this morning. | :26:00. | :26:05. | |
A third runway at Heathrow was first given the green | :26:06. | :26:07. | |
light by Gordon Brown's government in 2009. | :26:08. | :26:09. | |
Almost eight years on, could Theresa May be about finally | :26:10. | :26:11. | |
to allow Heathrow expansion to go ahead? | :26:12. | :26:13. | |
Or could she surprise everyone and back Gatwick instead? | :26:14. | :26:17. | |
Maybe she will come out in favour of both of them! | :26:18. | :26:20. | |
A decision is expected imminently, but it's not straightforward | :26:21. | :26:22. | |
Several members of her cabinet are opposed to any plan to expand | :26:23. | :26:26. | |
Heathrow, and reports suggest as many as 60 of her backbenchers | :26:27. | :26:28. | |
Our reporter, Mark Lobel, has been looking at | :26:29. | :26:32. | |
A growing number of people want to take more flights and some | :26:33. | :26:41. | |
accuse the Government of dragging their feet over | :26:42. | :26:43. | |
All the while, our airports are operating flat-out. | :26:44. | :26:54. | |
So this is fully autonomous, you just have to press the start | :26:55. | :27:00. | |
Matthew Hill is from a business-backed group campaigning | :27:01. | :27:06. | |
We haven't had a full-length runway in London and the south-east | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
Gatwick was built in the 1930s, Heathrow in the 1940s, | :27:11. | :27:15. | |
Heathrow is full, Gatwick will be full in the next few years. | :27:16. | :27:21. | |
Matthew's group claims the lack of a new runway is costing us | :27:22. | :27:24. | |
I think there are huge economic benefits from the construction | :27:25. | :27:31. | |
At the moment, because we don't have that new runway, we don't | :27:32. | :27:35. | |
have that new capacity, the new flights to new markets, | :27:36. | :27:37. | |
we are missing out on ?9.5 billion a year in lost trade. | :27:38. | :27:41. | |
Until we get that decision and we get that runway | :27:42. | :27:43. | |
built, we will continue to lose out on that trade. | :27:44. | :27:47. | |
One airport that's eager to expand is Heathrow, | :27:48. | :27:50. | |
either by expanding this northern runway, the one closest to us here, | :27:51. | :27:53. | |
or, the Airports Commission's favourite proposal, building | :27:54. | :27:56. | |
a new runway parallel to here, about a kilometre that way in place | :27:57. | :28:00. | |
It's said that would offer 40 new destinations from the airport, | :28:01. | :28:08. | |
carry lots more air freight, provide 70,000 new jobs | :28:09. | :28:10. | |
and an overall boost to economic activity in the country, | :28:11. | :28:15. | |
with a promise of no night flights, new environmental and community | :28:16. | :28:18. | |
Heathrow's hub status also services many of the UK's other airports, | :28:19. | :28:28. | |
On average, every year a quarter of a million passengers travel | :28:29. | :28:34. | |
to and from this key exporting region via Heathrow, | :28:35. | :28:36. | |
While we've been very strong supporters of a third runway | :28:37. | :28:42. | |
at Heathrow, we think it's in the best interests | :28:43. | :28:44. | |
of the north-east, we also think it's in the best | :28:45. | :28:46. | |
Our services connect to many, many destinations across the world, | :28:47. | :28:56. | |
and allow businesses to trade right the way across the globe. | :28:57. | :29:03. | |
Gatwick Airport also wants to expand with another runway here. | :29:04. | :29:09. | |
By doubling Gatwick's capacity, the plan would create 22,000 | :29:10. | :29:12. | |
new jobs, a vastly expanded short-haul network, and more | :29:13. | :29:15. | |
I think the expansion of Gatwick will bring firstly | :29:16. | :29:21. | |
the certainty of delivery, we can have spades in the ground | :29:22. | :29:24. | |
in this Parliament and we can be operational in the next, | :29:25. | :29:30. | |
so that's within ten years we can have a new runway, | :29:31. | :29:32. | |
and Gatwick can provide the increased capacity at a price | :29:33. | :29:35. | |
Now, before anyone gets carried away, there are of course some | :29:36. | :29:43. | |
people who would far prefer no extra planes in the sky. | :29:44. | :29:49. | |
We already fly more than everybody else, | :29:50. | :29:51. | |
most of these are leisure flights, well who's taking | :29:52. | :29:53. | |
Actually 70% of all of our flights are taken by 15% of the population. | :29:54. | :29:59. | |
It's a wealthy frequent-flying elite. | :30:00. | :30:03. | |
But with approval of a third runway looking likely, | :30:04. | :30:09. | |
could more protests be on the horizon? | :30:10. | :30:18. | |
I can tell you now, they are dusting off the handcuffs, you know, | :30:19. | :30:21. | |
And you have to remember, Heathrow, if they choose to expand | :30:22. | :30:24. | |
Heathrow, you are talking about hundreds of homes | :30:25. | :30:26. | |
being bulldozed, whole communities being eradicated, wiped off the map. | :30:27. | :30:29. | |
Over the last few years, since the last big protest around | :30:30. | :30:32. | |
Heathrow, the relationship between local people around | :30:33. | :30:34. | |
the airport and grass roots climate change activists | :30:35. | :30:37. | |
Those guys are going to get together and just cause merry hell for people | :30:38. | :30:42. | |
The Prime Minister, Theresa May, who once called for a better not | :30:43. | :30:51. | |
bigger Heathrow whilst in opposition, will chair a select | :30:52. | :30:54. | |
group of colleagues expected to decide imminently | :30:55. | :30:57. | |
on whether to build a new runway and where. | :30:58. | :31:00. | |
It will then take months for a national policy statement | :31:01. | :31:03. | |
outlining the new works to get drawn up before MPs get to vote on it, | :31:04. | :31:08. | |
leaving plenty of time for any further opposition to airport | :31:09. | :31:12. | |
I've been joined by two Conservative MPs. | :31:13. | :31:20. | |
Adam Afriyie is opposed to Heathrow expansion, | :31:21. | :31:22. | |
Adam, the independent Daviess report into runway expansion said the case | :31:23. | :31:43. | |
for Heathrow was clear and unanimous in the Commission. 180,000 more | :31:44. | :31:49. | |
jobs, more than ?200 billion in economic benefits. So why are you | :31:50. | :31:54. | |
putting the interests of your constituency before the national | :31:55. | :31:58. | |
interest? I will fight tooth and nail for the interests of my | :31:59. | :32:00. | |
constituents, but the wonderful thing about the binary choice | :32:01. | :32:04. | |
between Heathrow and Gatwick is that it is not in the regional or | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
consumers' interests to expand Heathrow. The Daviess report has | :32:10. | :32:17. | |
already been largely undermined. There are 17 reasons why it doesn't | :32:18. | :32:23. | |
work and is wrong. Number one, they said Gatwick would not have 42 | :32:24. | :32:30. | |
million passengers until 2024. This year, they already have 42 million | :32:31. | :32:34. | |
passengers. Gatwick have increased their destinations to 20 now, which | :32:35. | :32:39. | |
they didn't expect either. The Davies review was good in its day, | :32:40. | :32:44. | |
but is it had a limited remit. They were talking about Heathrow as a | :32:45. | :32:51. | |
hub, but the airline industry has changed. We have to pay to this for | :32:52. | :32:56. | |
more than 15 years. The government White Paper in 2003 suggested we | :32:57. | :33:05. | |
should expand Heathrow. ?20 million and 12 years later, the Davis Report | :33:06. | :33:10. | |
came to the same conclusion. We are never going to get any form of | :33:11. | :33:14. | |
progress on this is competing MPs are allowed to frustrate the | :33:15. | :33:19. | |
process. You could have had about three people who are Gatwick MPs | :33:20. | :33:24. | |
arguing very passionately against Adam's desire to expand Gatwick. The | :33:25. | :33:30. | |
point is, we are in a paralysis. We are having a theological debate that | :33:31. | :33:35. | |
will last decades, and Heathrow is... Why Heathrow? Why not expand | :33:36. | :33:41. | |
Gatwick and increase the capacity of our regional airports? I thought the | :33:42. | :33:45. | |
government's strategy was to rebalance the economy in favour of | :33:46. | :33:49. | |
the North and the Midlands. If you listen to northern MPs, or people | :33:50. | :33:54. | |
representing Northern or Scottish interests, they all say they want to | :33:55. | :34:00. | |
increase Heathrow. The SNP said last week they wanted Heathrow to be | :34:01. | :34:04. | |
expanded. If you want to help the economy is in those areas, listen to | :34:05. | :34:08. | |
what they are saying. They are saying expand Heathrow. 32 regional | :34:09. | :34:16. | |
airports support the expansion of Heathrow to maintain its position as | :34:17. | :34:20. | |
one of the global hubs. Even the Scottish Government agrees with | :34:21. | :34:25. | |
expanding Heathrow. They all say, we want to be a serious player in | :34:26. | :34:31. | |
aviation. We need a global hub, and that is Heathrow. The interesting | :34:32. | :34:34. | |
thing is that there is no argument that Heathrow is the UK hub, and no | :34:35. | :34:39. | |
one is trying to get rid of that. But if you are adding a single new | :34:40. | :34:44. | |
runway, is it better to add it at Heathrow or Gatwick, and for me it | :34:45. | :35:00. | |
is overwhelmingly clear. Heathrow is the most expensive airport in the | :35:01. | :35:03. | |
world. If you add another runway at taxpayer expense, you make it even | :35:04. | :35:06. | |
more expensive. So flight prices go up. Whether or not Heathrow could | :35:07. | :35:08. | |
ever be delivered is another question. My own Borough Council as | :35:09. | :35:12. | |
part of the legal action... So even if the decision is made, we may not | :35:13. | :35:18. | |
see the capacity. At Gatwick is dirt cheap. It can be delivered within | :35:19. | :35:25. | |
ten years. But it is not a global hub airport. But the hub that we | :35:26. | :35:29. | |
have at Heathrow is perfectly adequate for the next ten or 15 | :35:30. | :35:35. | |
years. It is running at 99% capacity. Every airline, the new | :35:36. | :35:42. | |
planes being ordered... The airline have decided that the hub capacity | :35:43. | :35:46. | |
is sufficient and they are moving to a different model. Let me ask you | :35:47. | :35:54. | |
this. We haven't built a major new runway in London and the south-east | :35:55. | :36:00. | |
for 60 years. Since 1946, so 70 years. Why not expand Heathrow and | :36:01. | :36:07. | |
Gatwick? Personally, I would do both. If we are serious about having | :36:08. | :36:11. | |
international trade and Golding links to the outside world, | :36:12. | :36:17. | |
especially after Brexit, we have to get serious about aviation and | :36:18. | :36:22. | |
accept that we need more capacity. I think it's scandalous we haven't | :36:23. | :36:25. | |
managed to expand capacity for 70 years, when we think of the economic | :36:26. | :36:29. | |
growth that has happened in that time. If we want to build a | :36:30. | :36:34. | |
prosperous economy, it seems bizarre we are reluctant to increase | :36:35. | :36:38. | |
aviation. Whatever the decision, do you think there will be a free vote | :36:39. | :36:43. | |
on this? I think this is one area where I think the government does | :36:44. | :36:56. | |
need to take a lead, and I hope they will make a rational choice for | :36:57. | :36:58. | |
Gatwick. If the government comes out for Heathrow, will you defy the | :36:59. | :37:04. | |
whips? Yes. I will always vote for Heathrow, because it doesn't make | :37:05. | :37:10. | |
economic sense. If MPs are happy at the prospect of Heathrow... Does the | :37:11. | :37:15. | |
figure strike a chord with you? I would hope there would be more, but | :37:16. | :37:20. | |
it depends on the political position of Labour and the SNP. I hope that | :37:21. | :37:24. | |
the government decides inclusively... Ad is doing what he | :37:25. | :37:30. | |
feels is the best for his constituents. I think 60 is way off | :37:31. | :37:35. | |
the mark. I don't know what journalists suggested 60 Tory MPs. | :37:36. | :37:43. | |
My sense is that it is probably about 20 hard-core people in the | :37:44. | :37:46. | |
House of Commons. I think it will be a free vote. If it is 20 hard-core, | :37:47. | :37:54. | |
you will need Labour to get it through? Labour MPs were very keen | :37:55. | :37:58. | |
on supporting Heathrow, in my experience. It may be delayed again, | :37:59. | :38:05. | |
of course. After 70 years, what's another week here or there! | :38:06. | :38:08. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :38:09. | :38:21. | |
He's served Plaid Cymru in Westminster and Cardiff Bay | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
for more than 40 years, even serving as leader but now | :38:27. | :38:29. | |
Dafydd Elis Thomas says it's all over. | :38:30. | :38:31. | |
He left the party on Friday night, sparking public words of sorrow | :38:32. | :38:34. | |
and some anger from colleagues, but no doubt rancour | :38:35. | :38:36. | |
Lord Elis Thomas joins us live in a moment, but his former | :38:37. | :38:42. | |
colleague Rhun ap Iorwerth was keen to play down his decision. | :38:43. | :38:47. | |
I think the wider implications for Plaid Cymru are very limited. | :38:48. | :38:52. | |
I think what we had here was a very well-publicised and, | :38:53. | :38:54. | |
let's be honest, fairly long drawn-out falling out | :38:55. | :38:57. | |
between Dafydd Elis Thomas and Plaid Cymru. | :38:58. | :39:01. | |
It's regretful to see a relationship of this sort, that lasted | :39:02. | :39:04. | |
four or five decades, coming to an end in this way. | :39:05. | :39:06. | |
This is a specific matter, relating to a specific Assembly member. | :39:07. | :39:09. | |
Plaid Cymru's work of being an effective and efficient | :39:10. | :39:12. | |
opposition, working constructively with government where | :39:13. | :39:14. | |
And the now Independent AM for Dwyfor Meironnydd, | :39:15. | :39:30. | |
Lord Elis Thomas, joins me from Bangor. | :39:31. | :39:35. | |
Good morning. Thanks for joining me. Good morning. How does that sound, | :39:36. | :39:48. | |
the independent AM? I quite like it. I didn't expect it to come to this, | :39:49. | :39:54. | |
obviously especially after the period before the last election | :39:55. | :39:57. | |
after the national executive of the party, held the local party to have | :39:58. | :40:02. | |
a rerun selection conference to see if I was fit to be a candidate. I | :40:03. | :40:09. | |
won the substantial vote there. But the programme we stood on was very | :40:10. | :40:14. | |
much a programme for Gwyneth, for auroral Wales and the agricultural | :40:15. | :40:21. | |
industry. Can I clear a few things up. You are saying this morning you | :40:22. | :40:27. | |
made this decision, you started thinking about this before the | :40:28. | :40:33. | |
election. Then we heard it said you had given assurances to your party | :40:34. | :40:39. | |
you would be loyal to the party. Did you give those pursuer and since | :40:40. | :40:43. | |
before the election, that you would be loyal to Plaid Cymru? I don't | :40:44. | :40:48. | |
know where this is coming from. It is a report he has had from the | :40:49. | :40:54. | |
meeting of executives. That is not true. There was no loyalty test. I | :40:55. | :41:00. | |
was given a gagging order at that meeting, I was to check with the | :41:01. | :41:04. | |
chair of the constituency party before making any controversial | :41:05. | :41:07. | |
statement. I don't know what a controversial statement is! I manage | :41:08. | :41:15. | |
to stick with that up to the election. But after that I hoped it | :41:16. | :41:23. | |
would be a change of heart, the result that 47% of the vote would | :41:24. | :41:30. | |
have been accepted by the party and they would have had a constructive | :41:31. | :41:36. | |
part to play. You said you ran a local campaign, but those promises | :41:37. | :41:41. | |
were printed on papers paid for by Plaid Cymru, the volunteers working | :41:42. | :41:45. | |
for you were supporting Plaid Cymru. You said there is no constitutional | :41:46. | :41:49. | |
case for you to trigger a by-election, and I'm sure you are | :41:50. | :41:54. | |
right on that. But is there a moral case now that having relied so | :41:55. | :41:58. | |
heavily on the Plaid Cymru machine, you should offer that vote to the | :41:59. | :42:09. | |
local people? Here, we pay our way. I support my councillor colleagues | :42:10. | :42:15. | |
where I live. But it is not true that Plaid Cymru here, when I was a | :42:16. | :42:22. | |
candidate and a member of the assembly, was not subsidised by | :42:23. | :42:27. | |
Plaid Cymru, essentially. To the country. Looking at your decision | :42:28. | :42:31. | |
and why you have decided to walk away from Plaid Cymru, you said they | :42:32. | :42:38. | |
are too keen to be an opposition party, not giving enough consensus | :42:39. | :42:41. | |
and support to the Welsh government. Isn't that a two-way process? The | :42:42. | :42:44. | |
Labour Party, the Welsh government are clear they don't want any more | :42:45. | :42:48. | |
support than they have had from Plaid Cymru. Surely it is the job of | :42:49. | :42:54. | |
an opposition to test and challenge the government? It is a very naive | :42:55. | :42:59. | |
view of politics. I worked hard the devolution because I wanted politics | :43:00. | :43:03. | |
in Wales to be different, I wanted it to be creative and do things | :43:04. | :43:09. | |
together. It did happen in the early period and in the formal coalition. | :43:10. | :43:15. | |
As soon as we have the vote about are should ship with the European | :43:16. | :43:18. | |
Union, the key thing that should have happened, the parties that | :43:19. | :43:21. | |
supported devolution should have understood the serious danger to the | :43:22. | :43:27. | |
Constitution and Wales, the power for auroral issues, which are with | :43:28. | :43:33. | |
the European Union, be brought back home, but brought back home to | :43:34. | :43:38. | |
Westminster. But Plaid Cymru can still be united on those issues | :43:39. | :43:42. | |
about keeping those powers devolved to the assembly. But it does mean | :43:43. | :43:47. | |
rolling over to the Welsh government and the Labour Party. They can still | :43:48. | :43:51. | |
have their own separate voice and agenda? It is not about rolling | :43:52. | :43:56. | |
over, it is about building a strong government in Wales. I was proud to | :43:57. | :44:03. | |
hear end Kenny when he was looking to negotiate with independent | :44:04. | :44:07. | |
colleagues and as well with the two big parties in Ireland, every member | :44:08. | :44:12. | |
had the responsibility to ensure a stable government for Ireland. When | :44:13. | :44:15. | |
I was Presiding Officer, I was always on the lookout to try to | :44:16. | :44:19. | |
ensure the government of Wales and the Constitution of Wales was always | :44:20. | :44:25. | |
developing. The bill we have before us in Westminster is drawing power | :44:26. | :44:30. | |
is back. These are the real dangers and that is why I want to see all | :44:31. | :44:36. | |
strong supporters of devolution working together in the National | :44:37. | :44:38. | |
Assembly. What happens next, if you were offered, would you accept a | :44:39. | :44:43. | |
seat in Carwyn Jones's cabinet? It is not on offer. If it was? It | :44:44. | :44:53. | |
wouldn't be, there is no prospect of a reshuffle the government and I | :44:54. | :44:58. | |
wouldn't expect that. I am stating I want to be able to serve my | :44:59. | :45:02. | |
constituency and serve the interests of Wales, especially the | :45:03. | :45:04. | |
constitutional status and power is... Sorry to interrupt, but do you | :45:05. | :45:09. | |
carry out that role best as an independent or in the Cabinet? Carry | :45:10. | :45:15. | |
out the role of representing my constituents as an independent AM. | :45:16. | :45:18. | |
The question of membership of the Welsh government does not arise. Try | :45:19. | :45:24. | |
and nailed this down, you are saying it is not on offer, it hasn't | :45:25. | :45:31. | |
arisen, but where it to arise, would it be yes or no from you? I don't | :45:32. | :45:37. | |
think it is an appropriate hypothetical question at this stage. | :45:38. | :45:40. | |
I have served Wales in any capacity I have been offered. That is not the | :45:41. | :45:47. | |
issue. What you are trying to say is to prop up those people in my party | :45:48. | :45:54. | |
that I am doing this for my own personal ambition. Of course I am | :45:55. | :45:58. | |
ambitious, everybody in politics is ambitious and I ambitious for the | :45:59. | :46:01. | |
people of Wales. I don't apologise for that. It has been suggested the | :46:02. | :46:08. | |
door might be open to rejoin the party at some point. But is your | :46:09. | :46:15. | |
membership as an elected AM of the party now gone? I will never say yes | :46:16. | :46:21. | |
or no, but they should have looked after me when I was there. | :46:22. | :46:32. | |
This is a pretty spectacular political divorce and we don't see | :46:33. | :46:37. | |
many splits like this in Potter ticks. It is someone who has such | :46:38. | :46:44. | |
experience in Plaid Cymru, many people think he embodies Plaid | :46:45. | :46:49. | |
Cymru, Dafydd Elis Thoms and he is leaving the party. The difficulty he | :46:50. | :46:55. | |
has got this has been pointed out by Plaid Cymru, the proximity to which | :46:56. | :47:00. | |
this has happened to the assembly election. There will be arguments | :47:01. | :47:03. | |
about what was said and what wasn't said, expressions of loyalty and the | :47:04. | :47:11. | |
like. But if you stand for a party in elections and matter of months | :47:12. | :47:19. | |
ago, you would expect a degree of loyalty there. Clearly, he feels | :47:20. | :47:24. | |
this abrasive, robust approach in a position Plaid are taking tomorrow | :47:25. | :47:28. | |
towards Labour, is not for him. But what would you expect under those | :47:29. | :47:33. | |
circumstances? In his own mind, he believes the voters voted for him as | :47:34. | :47:37. | |
a pseudo- independent already and that is how he is justifying the | :47:38. | :47:44. | |
cause and his rejection of the cause for a by-election to be held there. | :47:45. | :47:50. | |
There is an interesting story, about inside Plaid Cymru, there is a | :47:51. | :47:53. | |
fascinating numbers game in the assembly. 60 assembly members now, | :47:54. | :47:59. | |
if they can rely on the support of Dafydd Elis Thoms, than Labour, | :48:00. | :48:03. | |
presumably has 31. They have 20 9am is with Kirsty Williams on board, | :48:04. | :48:09. | |
maybe Dafydd Elis Thoms, it gives them the majority they have been | :48:10. | :48:17. | |
looking for. He is not biting, it is terms of whether he would take the | :48:18. | :48:24. | |
offer in the future? Labour have introduced a liberal Democrat into | :48:25. | :48:28. | |
the government. It might be difficult to bring a Plaid Cymru | :48:29. | :48:33. | |
member in in the future. We have a series of committees that Labour are | :48:34. | :48:38. | |
involved with with Plaid Cymru at the moment, although it is not a | :48:39. | :48:42. | |
formal coalition. The real test is when we get the budget. I thought it | :48:43. | :48:48. | |
would be inevitable, however the working relationship between Labour | :48:49. | :48:51. | |
and Plaid pans out, for Plaid and the Tories to put the squeeze on | :48:52. | :48:56. | |
labour, when you have a floating, independent Abba, a potential get | :48:57. | :49:00. | |
out of jail card for Labour in Dafydd Elis Thoms. In a way, that is | :49:01. | :49:06. | |
the wider significance of the decision we have seen. Carwyn Jones | :49:07. | :49:14. | |
said he wants to reach out, is he tempted to save two Plaid Cymru, I | :49:15. | :49:19. | |
have got the numbers, forget the deal? The entire tone since the | :49:20. | :49:25. | |
assembly campaign has become celerity. One of the questions at | :49:26. | :49:29. | |
the assembly is, what a relationship with Plaid will be. In response, | :49:30. | :49:35. | |
Plaid have been very robust. He now has potential options, it be | :49:36. | :49:39. | |
fascinating to see how he plays it in the months ahead. Thank you for | :49:40. | :49:41. | |
in. This week is budget week | :49:42. | :49:44. | |
in Cardiff Bay, when we find out how the Welsh Government | :49:45. | :49:47. | |
shares out it's, just shy And we expect one of the big-ticket | :49:48. | :49:48. | |
items will be childcare. Labour has promised working parents | :49:49. | :49:53. | |
30 hours free childcare a week But the author of the report | :49:54. | :49:56. | |
which led to that policy, says it could cost more than twice | :49:57. | :50:00. | |
as much as estimated. In a moment, we'll be getting | :50:01. | :50:03. | |
the former First Minister's take on all this and other budget | :50:04. | :50:06. | |
shenanigans, but first this It's breakfast time | :50:07. | :50:08. | |
at Little Inspirations nursery in Llantrisant in Rhondda, | :50:09. | :50:12. | |
Cynon, Taff. This kind of service can be | :50:13. | :50:16. | |
of significant cost to parents. But the Welsh government is planning | :50:17. | :50:19. | |
to give a helping hand. Under its plan, parents working 16 | :50:20. | :50:26. | |
hours or more a week, would be entitled to 30 hours free | :50:27. | :50:30. | |
child week for three would be entitled to 30 hours free | :50:31. | :50:38. | |
child care a week for three and four-year-olds and it would be | :50:39. | :50:41. | |
available 48 weeks of the year. That's 20 hours more per week | :50:42. | :50:44. | |
than currently on offer. Me and my partner both want to work, | :50:45. | :50:46. | |
we both do work, but the cost, you've got to weigh up | :50:47. | :50:51. | |
things, haven't you? You've got to be in good jobs to be | :50:52. | :50:53. | |
able to afford basic childcare. It's crazy in our house | :50:54. | :50:56. | |
at the moment because we just work I basically work to pay | :50:57. | :50:59. | |
to keep my little boy in nursery, but if I obviously had free | :51:00. | :51:04. | |
childcare, I would work a lot more. The cost of childcare is just | :51:05. | :51:07. | |
so hard at the moment, I'm having to just work to pay | :51:08. | :51:09. | |
for the childcare costs. The government has already said | :51:10. | :51:14. | |
new commitments have to be funded by taking chunks out | :51:15. | :51:18. | |
of budgets elsewhere. During the assembly election | :51:19. | :51:21. | |
campaign, Labour estimated it would be an extra | :51:22. | :51:27. | |
?84 million a year. Last year, a report for the Welsh | :51:28. | :51:30. | |
government analysed this policy It said a cost of ?84 million a year | :51:31. | :51:33. | |
would be based on 87% of parents currently working, taking up | :51:34. | :51:39. | |
the offer and the childcare costing But the author of that report has | :51:40. | :51:43. | |
now told Sunday Politics Wales that the actual cost could end | :51:44. | :51:52. | |
up being much higher, especially if the policy | :51:53. | :51:54. | |
achieves its aim, of getting In estimating the cost of this | :51:55. | :51:58. | |
policy, there are several parameters that feed into that estimate, | :51:59. | :52:06. | |
all of which have large degrees First of all, we do need to know | :52:07. | :52:08. | |
the hourly cost of delivery, which can vary enormously | :52:09. | :52:15. | |
across regions and different We also need to know most | :52:16. | :52:17. | |
importantly, how parents In particular whether they will | :52:18. | :52:21. | |
change their work behaviour in response to the policy, | :52:22. | :52:24. | |
which is hard to estimate. Gillian Paull's initial report | :52:25. | :52:27. | |
concluded the report wouldn't do much to get parents into work, | :52:28. | :52:30. | |
but the government insists it removes a major barrier | :52:31. | :52:33. | |
to employment. If the government is right, | :52:34. | :52:36. | |
Gillian says the upper cost limit of the policy could be | :52:37. | :52:42. | |
as high as ?200 million. The availability of places | :52:43. | :52:45. | |
could also become a problem. If for example, we look | :52:46. | :52:50. | |
at the number of child childcare places relative to the population, | :52:51. | :52:53. | |
in Wales it's about 30 childcare It is about 40 in England and it's | :52:54. | :52:55. | |
nearly 50 in Scotland. We are starting from a very low base | :52:56. | :53:00. | |
of childcare provision, so one of the big problems we have | :53:01. | :53:03. | |
in delivering this extra childcare is, there isn't very much childcare | :53:04. | :53:08. | |
to offer in the first place. The Welsh government acknowledges | :53:09. | :53:11. | |
there are issues with capacity and says it's working | :53:12. | :53:13. | |
with the sector. It's also undertaking | :53:14. | :53:15. | |
complex modelling of costs. The Welsh government's announcement | :53:16. | :53:21. | |
last week it plans to end its anti-poverty programme | :53:22. | :53:25. | |
Communities First could ultimately So where else will it need | :53:26. | :53:27. | |
to look to find money They'll have to look to other | :53:28. | :53:32. | |
budgets, health, education, environmental protection, | :53:33. | :53:38. | |
to see where they can make cuts The last five years have undoubtedly | :53:39. | :53:40. | |
been tough for the Welsh government's budget, | :53:41. | :53:45. | |
they've come under sustained pressure because of | :53:46. | :53:48. | |
reductions at Westminster. So there's not much fat | :53:49. | :53:51. | |
left to trim. So the choices Welsh Labour | :53:52. | :53:54. | |
ministers will have to make The government will need to start | :53:55. | :53:58. | |
finding money for this policy The full cost will kick | :53:59. | :54:07. | |
in further down the line. It could become a tricky balancing | :54:08. | :54:10. | |
act. The former First Minister Rhodri | :54:11. | :54:13. | |
Morgan has vast experience of dealing with these matters | :54:14. | :54:17. | |
and joins me now. Good morning. We have asked you to | :54:18. | :54:29. | |
come in to discuss the budget and what the deal should be. But Dafydd | :54:30. | :54:35. | |
Elis Thoms's defection and decision to stand as an independent changes a | :54:36. | :54:41. | |
lot of this discussion around the budget? One-vote makes an enormous | :54:42. | :54:45. | |
difference in the mathematics of the assembly because Labour has 30 and | :54:46. | :54:52. | |
what you have got now is with Dafydd Elis Thomas not crossing the floor, | :54:53. | :54:55. | |
but leaving the Plaid Cymru group, means that 30 suddenly becomes much | :54:56. | :55:01. | |
more comfortable than it was before. You cannot get a budget through with | :55:02. | :55:07. | |
30. You must have the support of at least one person from another party, | :55:08. | :55:12. | |
or the whole of another party, which is Labour set up the joint committee | :55:13. | :55:17. | |
with Plaid. They don't need that any more if Dafydd Elis Thomas is | :55:18. | :55:21. | |
genuinely an independent. All they need to do is occasionally talk to | :55:22. | :55:27. | |
him about new schools in his area and constituency. We know for the | :55:28. | :55:31. | |
last three or four months, Plaid Cymru and Labour have had this | :55:32. | :55:36. | |
committee looking ahead to the budget. If you are Carwyn Jones now, | :55:37. | :55:41. | |
would you be thinking, let's continue with those discussions with | :55:42. | :55:45. | |
Plaid Cymru, or would you be thinking, a new school in his | :55:46. | :55:50. | |
constituency and I would have Dafydd Elis Thomas's support. Plaid have | :55:51. | :55:54. | |
lost their leveraged. It is amazing that in a small body like the | :55:55. | :56:02. | |
assembly with just 16 seats -- 60 seats and Labour having 30 of them, | :56:03. | :56:07. | |
the difference one person can make. If Labour are one vote short of | :56:08. | :56:12. | |
getting a budget through. They can block things because 30-30 is not | :56:13. | :56:18. | |
enough. You have to have one extra person. With Plaid having lost that | :56:19. | :56:24. | |
one, Labour haven't gained that one, but Plaid have lost their leveraged | :56:25. | :56:27. | |
over the Labour government. The committees will probably continue | :56:28. | :56:32. | |
but the Plaid strength on those committees is severely depleted by | :56:33. | :56:37. | |
the defection of Dafydd Elis Thomas. I want to get onto the budget | :56:38. | :56:43. | |
discussions as soon as possible. If you say Labour hasn't gained Dafydd | :56:44. | :56:48. | |
Elis Thomas, which is true, but if you were Carwyn Jones, would you be | :56:49. | :56:53. | |
tempted to offer him a seat in the cabinet? No, it is not practical. | :56:54. | :56:58. | |
They have done it with Kirsty Williams. It was admired as a | :56:59. | :57:03. | |
courageous thing for Carwyn Jones to do. Very courageous for Kirsty, on | :57:04. | :57:11. | |
her own now. She accepted and with all the dangers of the Lib Dems be | :57:12. | :57:17. | |
incorporated with the Labour majority, but it is still not enough | :57:18. | :57:24. | |
to get the budget through. I don't think Labour would be happy and I am | :57:25. | :57:31. | |
not sure Plaid, I am not sure Dafydd Elis Thomas has the ambition to be | :57:32. | :57:36. | |
in the Labour Cabinet. He is just thoroughly cheesed off with a | :57:37. | :57:40. | |
mindless opposition is, which he sees as part of Leanne Wood 's' | :57:41. | :57:43. | |
leadership style in Plaid Cymru. So he has decided to become an | :57:44. | :57:46. | |
independent after being Plaid's leader 30 years ago, and has | :57:47. | :57:53. | |
represented his constituency for over 40 years now. On the budget | :57:54. | :58:00. | |
itself and the details we can expect on Tuesday, there is a tiny bit of | :58:01. | :58:05. | |
wriggle room, having scrapped Communities first, ?30 million to | :58:06. | :58:10. | |
play with for the finance secretary. Where do you think the priority | :58:11. | :58:14. | |
should be for the Welsh government? A lot of this is guesswork. Because | :58:15. | :58:21. | |
the Autumn Statement from Philip Hammond will not take place until | :58:22. | :58:25. | |
November the 23rd. Nobody knows whether he is going to reduce the | :58:26. | :58:31. | |
austerity drive. He said he doesn't want to bring the borrowing down to | :58:32. | :58:37. | |
zero by 2020. Should they have delayed it until after? I think that | :58:38. | :58:42. | |
is what they are doing in Scotland. But you can't delay it in Wales. You | :58:43. | :58:50. | |
have got to at least start. There is three stages to it, the second two | :58:51. | :58:55. | |
stages will take place after the Autumn Statement. There will be | :58:56. | :58:58. | |
bargaining across the parties, certainly there will be bargaining | :58:59. | :59:01. | |
with Dafydd Elis Thomas under the new circumstances. I am trying to | :59:02. | :59:06. | |
get what is trying to happen as regards, in particular those things | :59:07. | :59:10. | |
subject to all the Brexit negotiations will revert to | :59:11. | :59:14. | |
Westminster. They have guaranteed the European regional development | :59:15. | :59:18. | |
fund equivalent. We can go ahead with projects, even though we might | :59:19. | :59:23. | |
be out of the EU when we are halfway through those projects. But the | :59:24. | :59:29. | |
issue then is, who will control the money? Will it be given to Cardiff | :59:30. | :59:34. | |
Bay to spend or will the Treasury try and keep control of it and say, | :59:35. | :59:39. | |
you can have regional development fund, but we will tell you the | :59:40. | :59:42. | |
priorities and likewise for agriculture. A lot will happen and a | :59:43. | :59:47. | |
lot of juggling of the balls in the air will take place between now and | :59:48. | :59:52. | |
next March. Childcare, we told it would be ?84 million a year, but the | :59:53. | :59:58. | |
lady who wrote the report, Labour is basing it on says comic could be | :59:59. | :00:02. | |
?200 million a year. It is a difficult balancing act when those | :00:03. | :00:06. | |
figures are never easy to nail down? Know, sometimes you start and think | :00:07. | :00:12. | |
you can control the budget. Humans beings being the flexible animals | :00:13. | :00:18. | |
they are, you end up spending more than you anticipated. You have got | :00:19. | :00:24. | |
to be careful about long-term commitments, can you keep control | :00:25. | :00:30. | |
over them in order to make sure you can still, during a period where | :00:31. | :00:35. | |
there may be some slackening of austerity from everything Philip | :00:36. | :00:39. | |
Hammond has said, but we are still in a period of austerity because you | :00:40. | :00:45. | |
only have to look at the huge public sector borrowing requirement to | :00:46. | :00:49. | |
realise it has got to be brought under some control at some point but | :00:50. | :00:53. | |
without killing of economic growth. Is it where you think they should be | :00:54. | :00:58. | |
targeting in those early years? Is it a good way to look at it? Early | :00:59. | :01:05. | |
years is hugely important because the investment you make and the | :01:06. | :01:11. | |
early in a child's life you make the investment, the chants is greater of | :01:12. | :01:13. | |
reducing the gap investment, the chants is greater of | :01:14. | :01:16. | |
in return for renewing vehicles. You. | :01:17. | :01:19. | |
Will MPs get a vote on Theresa May's Brexit plans? | :01:20. | :01:25. | |
Why are the Lib Dems throwing everything they've got | :01:26. | :01:28. | |
at the by-election in David Cameron's old constituency? | :01:29. | :01:30. | |
And what will happen next in the US presidential election? | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
So this cross-party push to make the government come forward with the | :01:34. | :01:58. | |
outlines of this negotiating strategy for Brexit, and put it to | :01:59. | :02:02. | |
the Commons in particular, has that got traction? It has in that it is | :02:03. | :02:07. | |
attracting a wide range of support in the House of Commons, which is | :02:08. | :02:12. | |
now the crucial forum for these debates. Theresa May has said there | :02:13. | :02:19. | |
will not be a vote before she triggers article 50. So we have two | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
assume there will not be a vote. With this whole debate, there is a | :02:24. | :02:26. | |
myth going about that we don't know much about what Brexit means. We | :02:27. | :02:32. | |
know a heck of a lot about what it means. We know that when she opens | :02:33. | :02:38. | |
her mouth, the pound falls. The pound is in a different position to | :02:39. | :02:42. | |
the other Brexiteers. There is an accountability issue in terms of | :02:43. | :02:46. | |
what the House of Commons will have a say in, and that could become a | :02:47. | :02:52. | |
big story. Nicola Sturgeon has supported a second referendum. We | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
know a huge amount, all of it dire, and I hope that MPs do get votes at | :02:58. | :03:07. | |
some point. I suspect they will. For example, we are going to get one on | :03:08. | :03:10. | |
this so-called repeal act, which is an act of consolidation. There will | :03:11. | :03:14. | |
be others. We cannot leave the European Union without votes, but I | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
don't think we will get one on Article 50. What they seem to be | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
pushing for at the moment is a vote on the government's bargaining | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
position. They are not saying they want all the details, although | :03:28. | :03:37. | |
Labour has asked 70 questions. The Commons needs to improve them, it is | :03:38. | :03:43. | |
said. Is that fair? It is absurd. You don't go into negotiating with | :03:44. | :03:49. | |
Brussels talking about what was published in all the national | :03:50. | :03:52. | |
newspapers last week about what our red lines are. I don't remember any | :03:53. | :03:58. | |
other international trade deal being done in the public eye. Theresa May | :03:59. | :04:05. | |
hasn't said a red line on immigration. She has uttered those | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
words. There are lots of other intricate details. Of course they | :04:11. | :04:15. | |
are, but we broadly know her position. And broadly we know the EU | :04:16. | :04:21. | |
position. Broad knowledge is not the same as specific. The point is that | :04:22. | :04:25. | |
the British Parliament, all these people who are so obsessed with the | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
British Parliament having its say and democracy, they didn't care for | :04:31. | :04:34. | |
very many years when they happily handed over powers. The Lisbon | :04:35. | :04:39. | |
Treaty, which is like a new constitution. It handed over far | :04:40. | :04:46. | |
more powers again and again. And there was an express vote not to | :04:47. | :04:49. | |
have a referendum for the British people. But we have now given our | :04:50. | :04:55. | |
say. Putting aside whether you are for or against, is it realistic that | :04:56. | :04:58. | |
the government will come forward with some kind of green paper all | :04:59. | :05:02. | |
white paper that gives a broad outline of the government's Brexit | :05:03. | :05:08. | |
position? When you have the majority of between ten and 20, there is one | :05:09. | :05:14. | |
thing you have to do as Prime Minister, and that is to learn to | :05:15. | :05:19. | |
count. Theresa May hasn't done that. There will be a vote in the House of | :05:20. | :05:23. | |
Commons. Whether it's binding or not, because MPs will make one. What | :05:24. | :05:30. | |
will vote be on? They will demand that the government spelt out its | :05:31. | :05:35. | |
Brexit strategy. It will not be binding, unless they tried to | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
shoehorn something onto government legislation, which I don't think | :05:40. | :05:44. | |
they will do. They will be unsure. The will of the House of Commons | :05:45. | :05:48. | |
will express itself simply because there is a majority in the House of | :05:49. | :05:53. | |
Commons, a clear one, for soft Brexit. There will be a vote, the | :05:54. | :05:58. | |
government will lose it, and then it is up to Theresa May whether to pay | :05:59. | :06:03. | |
any attention to it. But she has got herself into this problem because | :06:04. | :06:08. | |
she has adopted the views of the 52 against the 48, dropping any sort of | :06:09. | :06:12. | |
language about consensus and bringing the country back together. | :06:13. | :06:19. | |
If the Commons votes against the government on this, it will be seen | :06:20. | :06:23. | |
as a major setback for the government and the Prime Minister. | :06:24. | :06:28. | |
Yes, seismic. Of course she can ignore it if you are talking about | :06:29. | :06:32. | |
it in relation to triggering Article 50. In a way, it happened with | :06:33. | :06:38. | |
Maastricht as well. The House of Commons will move centrestage, and | :06:39. | :06:42. | |
that context is that tiny majority. She has a smaller majority than John | :06:43. | :06:51. | |
Major had in the 90s, and it's going to be far more turbulent than | :06:52. | :06:53. | |
perhaps her calm, assured a facade suggests. Theresa May is a serious, | :06:54. | :07:01. | |
fully formed politician, with six years in the Home Office, but she | :07:02. | :07:06. | |
has never had experience of the Treasury or the Foreign Office. This | :07:07. | :07:10. | |
is massive, massive politics, and I don't think she's ready for it. I | :07:11. | :07:16. | |
don't blame her for that. If it comes to a conflict between the | :07:17. | :07:21. | |
result of the referendum and the position Parliament has taken, there | :07:22. | :07:26. | |
is a chance she will call another election? Effectively, it will be a | :07:27. | :07:30. | |
vote of no-confidence in her government. She should call another | :07:31. | :07:35. | |
election. I think the British people be very clear. The remainers I know | :07:36. | :07:40. | |
have all completely accept it that we are going to have this. There is | :07:41. | :07:44. | |
a mandate for leaves and the Prime Minister should get on with it. I | :07:45. | :07:48. | |
think the British people will not take kindly to any MP who gets in | :07:49. | :07:52. | |
the way. We have two by-elections this week. One in Whitley and one in | :07:53. | :08:01. | |
Batley and Spen, the seat held by Jo Cox. The main parties are not | :08:02. | :08:04. | |
competing in that because of the appalling circumstances in which her | :08:05. | :08:12. | |
terrible murder took place. The Lib Dems are coming big in Witney. They | :08:13. | :08:18. | |
came fourth in the general election, rather forepaws, that they are | :08:19. | :08:22. | |
bigging themselves up in this one. That wise? They've got to do | :08:23. | :08:26. | |
something to get themselves attention. They need to get noticed. | :08:27. | :08:35. | |
But what they have in their favour is that the constituency Witney | :08:36. | :08:40. | |
voted 53% remain and 47% leave in the EU referendum. So they will be | :08:41. | :08:45. | |
trying to get the remain a vote. This is the first test of their | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
remain a strategy. It is interesting that Theresa May bothered to come | :08:51. | :08:56. | |
out and campaign on Saturdays. There she is. The Prime Minister and the | :08:57. | :09:04. | |
former Prime Minister out campaigning. They are not going to | :09:05. | :09:10. | |
win, that they would have to come second. David Cameron had a 60% vote | :09:11. | :09:17. | |
there, for goodness sake. The Tory candidate was a Leave campaign. The | :09:18. | :09:22. | |
fact she is out campaigning isn't a sign of lack of confidence. She must | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
be confident they will win, otherwise she wouldn't be seen near | :09:28. | :09:32. | |
the place. OK, the American election. Just when you thought it | :09:33. | :09:37. | |
couldn't get crazier. We are familiar with drug tests for | :09:38. | :09:42. | |
athletes and cyclists, and all sorts of things in sport. But Mr Trump has | :09:43. | :09:46. | |
now called for a drug test before the third and final debate coming up | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
this Wednesday. Am I making it up? No, I'm not. | :09:52. | :09:54. | |
I think we should take a drug test prior to the debate. | :09:55. | :09:57. | |
We should take a drug test prior, because I don't know | :09:58. | :10:02. | |
what's going on with her, but at the beginning of her last | :10:03. | :10:06. | |
debate she was all pumped up at the beginning, | :10:07. | :10:12. | |
and at the end it was like, uuh, take me down. | :10:13. | :10:15. | |
So I think we should take a drug test. | :10:16. | :10:19. | |
He's also talking about the election being rigged as well, which may be | :10:20. | :10:36. | |
ground work for making his excuses. But here's the issue. That was | :10:37. | :10:42. | |
yesterday. With everything that went before, overnight, the latest | :10:43. | :10:47. | |
Washington post-ABC News poll. Mrs Clinton is ahead by only four | :10:48. | :10:51. | |
points. It's almost within the margin of error. Down from about ten | :10:52. | :10:56. | |
points after sexual assault gate. The simple reason why Trump got the | :10:57. | :11:04. | |
Republican nomination, beating 50 or 60 Republican moderates, why he's | :11:05. | :11:09. | |
been doing pretty well in the polls until the last two of weeks, people | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
buy into the anti-establishment thing. All you need to do is stand | :11:14. | :11:18. | |
there and say, of course they would say that, because they are all | :11:19. | :11:21. | |
crooked. That is the single biggest thing he's got going for him. The | :11:22. | :11:30. | |
Washington Post - ABC News poll suggests the whole business of the | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
nude tapes actually haven't made that much difference. -- huge tape. | :11:35. | :11:47. | |
-- lewd tape. Once you position yourself, you can almost say | :11:48. | :11:57. | |
anything you like, and then respond by saying, the elite would say that, | :11:58. | :12:01. | |
wouldn't they? You cannot really deal with that as an argument, | :12:02. | :12:06. | |
because you would just say, oh, that's you lot, you would say that. | :12:07. | :12:12. | |
There is a point where it becomes absurd, though, and I think this | :12:13. | :12:17. | |
current thing on doping tests is laugh out loud stuff. That surely | :12:18. | :12:24. | |
can't help him. You cannot think, what are the undecideds thinking | :12:25. | :12:31. | |
about this? There was a lot of information, not in the century, but | :12:32. | :12:34. | |
some information is more e-mails from Mrs Clinton are leaked. They | :12:35. | :12:43. | |
are showing her to be very much a globalisation person, very close to | :12:44. | :12:53. | |
Wall Street, talking about why... As Donald Trump said last week, it was | :12:54. | :12:59. | |
good to have the shackles off. This is him with the shackles off. The | :13:00. | :13:04. | |
reality is, all the stuff about Hillary not being very likeable and | :13:05. | :13:09. | |
dishonest, that is already factored into the polls. All the stuff about | :13:10. | :13:13. | |
Donald Trump being lecherous and racist is already factored in. What | :13:14. | :13:18. | |
still blows my mind is that people are still undecided! He's given | :13:19. | :13:24. | |
Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. It is going to be very interesting to | :13:25. | :13:26. | |
see. Jo Coburn has more Daily Politics | :13:27. | :13:28. | |
tomorrow at midday on BBC Two. I'll be back next Sunday | :13:29. | :13:32. | |
at 11am here on BBC One. Remember - if it's Sunday, | :13:33. | :13:34. | |
it's the Sunday Politics. | :13:35. | :13:39. |