16/10/2016 Sunday Politics Wales


16/10/2016

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Boris Johnson hosts a summit of allies in London

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to discuss how to broker a peace settlement in Syria.

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But as war continues to rage, could "no-bomb zones" -

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thought to be backed by the Foreign Secretary -

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protect civilians, and how would they work?

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We were told by the Remain campaign that a vote to leave the EU would

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But with the economy growing and employment at record

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Can Theresa May make a decision on airport expansion

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without triggering a Conservative cabinet bust-up

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Later in the programme. as the PM prepares to choose

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What next for Plaid as Dafydd Elis Thomas leaves the party?

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And more free childcare is promised in this week's budget,

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And more free childcare is promised on whether to expand Heathrow, is

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Brexit causing uncertainty in the aviation sector?

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All that to come before 12.15 - and the Scottish Secretary, David

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Mundell, on Nicola Sturgeon's plans for a second referendum

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And with me throughout - Tom Newtown Dunn,

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Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards.

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They'll all be tweeting their thoughts and comments

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So, in just over an hour, the Foreign Secretary,

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Boris Johnson, will host a meeting of foreign allies in London,

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including US Secretary of State John Kerry,

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to discuss military options in Syria.

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Last week, Mr Johnson said the public mood had changed

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after relentless bomb attacks on Aleppo

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and that more "kinetic action" might be possible.

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Has the public mood changed on Syria? There is a desire to end the

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horror, but has the public mood really changed? Not really. When

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asked, the Public say that something must be done and we must stop the

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slaughter, but when also asked whether to put British troops there,

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they say, probably not. We have a new Foreign Secretary and British

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government, and we will have a new White House come January for sure.

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So there is a feeling that what has gone so far in terms of not

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intervening, not trying to oppose or block Putin from doing what he wants

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in Syria has failed, so time to try something else. There was talk of a

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no-fly zone. There's not so much talk about it now. Now there's

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suddenly a no-bomb zone. Are we clear what that would be? It is

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meaningless without a no-fly zone and no one is willing to enforce it.

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For me, the biggest issue is, what is the point of the United Nations?

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With Russia vetoing any possible peace plan, we are in a situation

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where we are basically handing over our moral authority in the world for

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dealing with humanitarian disasters and war crimes being committed by

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the side regime and Putin to an organisation which is controlled by

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Putin effectively because he has a veto on the Security Council. The

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situation is untenable. We cannot sit and pretend we don't want to be

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involved in this war. We are already at war, and we will be at war. We

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need to get to grips with it sooner or later. If we are willing to say

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that we don't care about Syrian children dying... But we are not

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willing to say that, so we need to do something about it. We could care

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deeply but admits there is not something we can do about it.

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Indeed. When Julia says "Get involved", that does not translate

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to anything precise or specific. The problem is you go round in circles

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when it comes to reaction, because when people are then asked what the

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endgame is - and you do need to have a sense of the end and an aim, and

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one of the problems with Iraq was that there was not that - you can

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simply say, something needs to be done and we are involved and there

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should be military action, but that raises 10,000 other questions which

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no one is capable of answering. As I understand it, the no-bomb zone

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would be that we would designate areas where no bombing would be

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allowed. We wouldn't have planes to stop it happening, but if bombing

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did happen in those areas, we would use missiles to take out Syrian

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infrastructure. It seems complicated, and to not take into

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account what we would do if the Russians put anti-missile batteries

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around this Syrian infrastructure, as well they might. And you could go

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one step further. Your understanding is the same as mine. Doing something

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to prevent drops being -- ones being dropped in that area, but without

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engaging with Russia. You could fire cruise missiles into a runway, which

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we were warned could be done, but the problem is, you could have a

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Russian jet in the middle of that runway, or a bus of school kids. We

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know that they are capable of doing that. You are looking towards a

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confrontation with Russia, what ever you do. Boris Johnson would say this

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is the kind of HARDtalk we need to get the man to listen, because

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everything else has failed. Mr Kerry being there is significant, but at

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this stage in the election cycle, it's hard to sue what -- see what Mr

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Obama would do. We have no idea what to reason may's foreign policy is in

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terms of intervention. The last thing she would want to do is to get

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involved in a Middle Eastern war. But we are already involved. And the

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idea that our entire foreign policy should be based on not having a

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conflict in the Putin... The West as a whole is not wanting to have a

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conflict with him, and that is why he is acting how he is.

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Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has repeated her

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warning that, if the UK leaves the single market, she will push for

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Speaking to Andrew Marr earlier this morning, Ms Sturgeon said

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she would not hesitate to protect Scotland's economic interests.

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There's a principle here about, you know,

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Does what we think, and what we say, and how

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And that's what's going to be put to the test, I think,

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Theresa May, perfectly legitimately, says she values the UK,

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In the Independence Referendum, Scotland was told repeatedly

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My message to the Prime Minister is, it's now time to prove these

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things, and demonstrate to Scotland that our voice does count

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within the UK, and our interests can be protected.

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Because if that's not the case, then I think Scotland

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would have the right to decide whether it wanted to follow

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I've been joined by the Secretary of State for Scotland, David Mundell.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. During the Scottish referendum

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campaign, two years ago, the ETA Together campaign claimed that the

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only guaranteed way for Scotland to remain in the EU was to stay in the

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UK. That turned out to be untrue. You owe the people of Scotland an

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apology. That isn't the full facts. It was made clear during the

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referendum in Scotland that there could be an EU referendum. Ruth

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Davidson, on many occasions, made it clear that people in Scotland would

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have the opportunity to vote on whether or not they remained in the

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EU. What was clear in that referendum, and you played a

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significant part in highlighting it, was that those who were advocating a

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yes vote could not set out a clear route for Scotland to get into the

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EU as an independent nation. They were told if they stayed in the UK,

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that was their best route to remaining in Europe. It turned out,

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it is obvious that that was untrue. It was a route that meant there was

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going to be an EU referendum. That was made very clear throughout that.

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People voted in Scotland decisively to remain part of the UK in full

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knowledge that there would be a referendum on whether the United

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Kingdom remained in the European Union. That is what the vote on the

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23rd of June in Scotland was about. It was about the UK remaining in the

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EU, not Scotland. The people of Scotland were told to vote for the

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union to be sure of staying in the UK. They also voted 62% to 38% to

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stay in the EU. Now they are being dragged out against their will.

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Surely that is grounds for a second Scottish referendum? I don't accept

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that. I've voted to stay in the EU, but I didn't do so on the basis that

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if I didn't get my own way that Scotland would be dragged out of the

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United Kingdom. We have had a once in a generation vote as to whether

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Scotland remained part of the UK. There was a decisive result in that.

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On the assumption that we would also remain part of the European Union,

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so a major change has taken place. I don't accept that analysis. People

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were told that there would be a vote on whether the UK remained in the

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EU. The reasons for Scotland remaining in the UK were

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overwhelmingly economic, and those issues remain today in relation to

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the UK single market. It is very odd that people who are concerned about

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the EU single market are quite willing to

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give up the UK single market, which is four times as valuable to

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Scotland, and responsible for a million jobs. If the Scottish

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Government demands another referendum, will the UK Government

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grant it? The UK Government will have two agreed to a referendum, but

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we want to argue that there shouldn't be another referendum. It

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is in Scotland's best interests at the two governments work together

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with 18 UK approach to get the best possible situation for Scotland...

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If the Scottish Parliament decides that we do want -- we do not like

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the terms of Brexit and we want another referendum, would you grant

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it? There would have to be an agreement between the two

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governments in the same form as the Edinburgh Agreement. The great shame

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of the Edinburgh Agreement, which the SNP used to quote repeatedly, is

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that they have not adhere to it, because a fundamental part of that

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would be that both sides would respect the result. Viewers will

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notice that you haven't really answered my question. Could Scotland

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remain inside the single market in Europe as part of the Brexit

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process? From the outset, I have said we would listen to any proposal

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that the Scottish Government brought forward in relation to Scotland's

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interests. We have had for months and no specific proposals have come

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forward. Nicola Sturgeon was talking about proposals this morning, but at

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this moment, I see it impossible that Scotland could remain within

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the EU whilst the rest of the UK leads. It would be difficult to see

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how that could be achieved. But we will listen to any proposals the

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Scottish Government bring forward in relation to achieving the best

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interests of Scotland. I am convinced that Scotland's best

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interests are being part of the UK. You praised Scotland's membership of

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the single market during the referendum. In March of this year

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you said it secured jobs, was vital to tourism and industry, inbound

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visitors and the rest of it. So why would you not want to retain it for

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Scotland? I agree with the benefits Scotland has received from the

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single market, but we are in a different situation now. The UK is

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negotiating its exit from the EU. The Prime Minister has said it is

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not going to be on the basis of existing arrangements, it will be on

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the basis of a new arrangement, and as part of that, we will want to

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secure the best arrangement for Scottish businesses. Given the

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history we have gone through, do you want to guarantee a special post

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Brexit status for Scotland. We leave the EU, but Scotland will have a

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distinct status? I'm willing to look at any proposal brought forward that

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looks at Scotland's interests. We have had no specifics from the

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Scottish Government. They say now that they have them. It is a bit rum

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to attack the Scottish Government. The principle is, could Scotland

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have a special position, and would you help that or not? I am willing

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to listen to any proposal brought forward. Will fishing and farming go

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back to Edinburgh? The devolution settlement are going to be a

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change,... Will they go to Edinburgh or to London? We will have a

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decision at the end of that process. I want to make sure we have the best

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arrangement for Scotland. You can't answer the question? We want to

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listen to what fishermen and farmers say, and the people of Scotland. It

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will be a package of arrangements, clearly, that need to be taken

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forward as a result of leaving the EU. One final question. If the

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Scottish Nationalist MPs vote against grammar schools, which are

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purely for England, isn't that proof that your English votes for English

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laws isn't working? It demonstrates all MPs in the

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Parliament have the opportunity to vote on all issues. You wouldn't

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mind if they voted to stop Grammar schools? Of course I wouldn't --

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would mind... I think we have got the balance right in that

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legislation. It is meaningless if they can vote to stop grammar

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schools when it doesn't affect Scotland. They have to answer for

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that, based on an opportunistic approach and cause resentment in

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England. Thank you for being with us.

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During the EU Referendum campaign, leading Remain supporters repeatedly

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warned that a vote to leave the European Union would cause

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Three months on, were their forecasts accurate?

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Since the vote on June 23rd, the economic news

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The value of the pound has been in pretty steady depreciation

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since referendum day, falling to a 31-year

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It was as low as $1.18 but has still rebounded a bit.

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The weak pound left Tesco in a situation.

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They stopped selling Marmite and other products for a day online

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And a leaked Treasury report said that Government tax revenues

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could be down by 66 billion a year in a post-Brexit economy.

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Though the report emanated from Project Fear days.

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However, many of the short-term economic fundamentals

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The dominant service sector grew a healthy 0.4% in July.

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In the same month, the unemployment rate dipped to under 5%,

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House-buying has also been rising since the referendum,

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nearly 110,000 properties were purchased in August.

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Is the economy already suffering from the Brexit blues or not?

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Joining me now is the former shadow Europe Minister,

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the Labour MP Pat McFadden, who was a Business Minister

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Do you know concede that nearly all the short-term economic forecasts

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made by the Remain campaign have turned out to be untrue at best,

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scaremongering at worst? No, I think this week was the week that the

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beginnings of the economic effects of Brexit began to take hold, most

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obviously on the currency fall. You talk about short-term, this began on

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the night of the referendum itself and was given booster rockets by the

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signals sent out by the Conservative Party conference. In terms of the

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warnings next to reality, the warnings about the fall of the

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currency speculated that it might fall in value by about 12%, the

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reality is closer to 20%. Let's look at some of the warnings. We will

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come back to the currency, but let's look at this. The Treasury report on

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maybe 23rd said the following: That turned out to be untrue, didn't

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it? What has happened here, which isn't in line with those warnings,

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is consumer confidence has remained high. The actions of the Bank of

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England in cutting interest have been important, so the short-term

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effect in terms of consumer confidence... So it is wrong? Hasn't

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turned out in line with that, but it would be complacent in the extreme

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to conclude that with the effects of the currency which we know also from

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the Bank of England's comments the other dates will feed into higher

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prices, which will hit lower income consumers hardest. But we don't know

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yet, I will come onto that but in the short term, I will show you

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another one. A month before the referendum, the Chancellor George

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Osborne said this: That turned out to be wronged too,

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didn't it? We are not in recession but if you look at the forecasts of

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growth over the next few years, the Bank of England have forecast growth

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next year to not be the 2.3% it thought before the referendum but to

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be 0.8%. Is it forecasting a recession? No, but it is forecasting

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a slowdown which would mean GDP after two years would be for the ?5

:19:59.:20:03.

billion less than the estimates before the referendum took place.

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And it might be wrong, because look, it was wrong about the recession. Is

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anybody now forecasting a recession? I don't know if anybody is

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forecasting a recession. The IMF are certainly forecasting a slowdown in

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a similar way to the Bank of England. George Osborne also said

:20:23.:20:29.

house prices will plummet by 18%. Any sign of that? House prices are

:20:30.:20:37.

not plummeting by 18%. Your side that you represent made much of the

:20:38.:20:41.

IMF's claim that provoked Leave would mean an immediate slide into

:20:42.:20:46.

recession, a collapse in house prices, and a crash in stock markets

:20:47.:20:53.

which of course are currently at record levels. Even the IMF admits

:20:54.:21:01.

there is none of that. There maybe longer term dangers but in the

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short-term it happen. In the short-term it didn't happen. In the

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short term what has happened here, as I said a moment ago, is consumer

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confidence has remained high, the Bank of England cut interest rates

:21:16.:21:19.

which put more money into people's pockets and I think the action they

:21:20.:21:24.

took was important, but I think it would be wrong to say imply that

:21:25.:21:28.

because these things haven't happened in the first few months

:21:29.:21:33.

that we are somehow out of the woods on the economy. I understand that,

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that's the last thing I would say, but here's the question - most of

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these forecasters are still pretty gloomy about the long-term but if

:21:42.:21:45.

they couldn't get the last few months right, why would you trust

:21:46.:21:51.

them for 2025 when they couldn't say what will happen in September? Why

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would you trust them to say what happens five years from now? People

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will ask the question but the big tangible we have is in the decline

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of the currency and that is a real and now effect. We can talk about

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whether it is lost or minus, but the Government said the other day this

:22:15.:22:18.

would bring inflation back, to use his words it is going to get

:22:19.:22:22.

difficult, particularly for people on lower incomes and that will feed

:22:23.:22:27.

into people's purchasing power. The international markets partaking of

:22:28.:22:31.

you have our future prospects and at the moment it is not a vote of

:22:32.:22:37.

confidence. Do you agree with the latest Remain mantra that people

:22:38.:22:41.

might have voted to leave the EU but didn't necessarily vote to leave the

:22:42.:22:47.

single market? I do agree with that. A lot of people have said people who

:22:48.:22:51.

voted to leave didn't know that's what they were voting for, so let me

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show you a clip of David Cameron at the height of the referendum

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campaign. The British public would be voting if we leave to leave the

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EU and the single market, we then have to negotiate a trade deal from

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outside with the European Union. There you have it loud and clear on

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BBC television, voting Leave means leaving the single market, not

:23:16.:23:20.

losing access to it but leaving the membership of it. We have George

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Osborne on tape saying the same thing, so why do you make out Leave

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voters didn't know what they were voting for? I think people voted

:23:30.:23:34.

Leave for a number of different reasons. For some it might have been

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immigration, for some it might have been the promise of more money for

:23:39.:23:43.

the NHS, but there are number of countries outside the EU which can

:23:44.:23:47.

have full access to the single market, we know about Norway and on.

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But they all have to pay in and have free movement. We can come onto that

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but what I'm saying is it's not the case that when you are outside the

:23:59.:24:02.

EU you necessarily have to be outside the single market and the

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reason this is important is because this has been a cornerstone of

:24:07.:24:10.

British economic policy for many years, particularly in terms of our

:24:11.:24:17.

inward investment, and the reasons why both manufacturing industry and

:24:18.:24:20.

financial services has invested and created employment in the UK, and I

:24:21.:24:26.

think it would be cavalier to begin this negotiation by closing the door

:24:27.:24:31.

on that. Is it Labour's policy, I know you don't speak for Labour

:24:32.:24:35.

leadership, but is it their policy to remain in the single market? You

:24:36.:24:40.

are right, I'm a backbencher, but it is the policy to have as full access

:24:41.:24:45.

as possible to the single market. At least what we have now in terms of

:24:46.:24:52.

goods and services. You can call it membership or not but that is what

:24:53.:24:55.

Keir Starmer and the Labour Party wants. The old party home affairs

:24:56.:25:03.

select committee is blaming Jeremy Corbyn's lack of leadership for

:25:04.:25:06.

creating a safe space for what they call vile anti-Semitism. Do you

:25:07.:25:13.

agree with that? I think this report should be taken seriously. The

:25:14.:25:17.

atmosphere in the Labour Party, there has been a lot of nasty things

:25:18.:25:22.

said on social media over the past year in particular. I hope we don't

:25:23.:25:27.

make the mistake of shooting the messenger, I hope we take the report

:25:28.:25:31.

seriously and I hope we don't fall into the trap that sometimes I see

:25:32.:25:35.

when these accusations are wielded, that we point to antiracism records

:25:36.:25:41.

and say look at our virtue in our record here, that must mean we

:25:42.:25:46.

cannot be anti-Semitic. Let me be clear about this, pointing to your

:25:47.:25:50.

own sense of righteousness is no excuse for nastiness or cruelty to

:25:51.:25:53.

someone else so we should take this very seriously indeed. Pat McFadden,

:25:54.:25:59.

thank you for being with us this morning.

:26:00.:26:05.

A third runway at Heathrow was first given the green

:26:06.:26:07.

light by Gordon Brown's government in 2009.

:26:08.:26:09.

Almost eight years on, could Theresa May be about finally

:26:10.:26:11.

to allow Heathrow expansion to go ahead?

:26:12.:26:13.

Or could she surprise everyone and back Gatwick instead?

:26:14.:26:17.

Maybe she will come out in favour of both of them!

:26:18.:26:20.

A decision is expected imminently, but it's not straightforward

:26:21.:26:22.

Several members of her cabinet are opposed to any plan to expand

:26:23.:26:26.

Heathrow, and reports suggest as many as 60 of her backbenchers

:26:27.:26:28.

Our reporter, Mark Lobel, has been looking at

:26:29.:26:32.

A growing number of people want to take more flights and some

:26:33.:26:41.

accuse the Government of dragging their feet over

:26:42.:26:43.

All the while, our airports are operating flat-out.

:26:44.:26:54.

So this is fully autonomous, you just have to press the start

:26:55.:27:00.

Matthew Hill is from a business-backed group campaigning

:27:01.:27:06.

We haven't had a full-length runway in London and the south-east

:27:07.:27:10.

Gatwick was built in the 1930s, Heathrow in the 1940s,

:27:11.:27:15.

Heathrow is full, Gatwick will be full in the next few years.

:27:16.:27:21.

Matthew's group claims the lack of a new runway is costing us

:27:22.:27:24.

I think there are huge economic benefits from the construction

:27:25.:27:31.

At the moment, because we don't have that new runway, we don't

:27:32.:27:35.

have that new capacity, the new flights to new markets,

:27:36.:27:37.

we are missing out on ?9.5 billion a year in lost trade.

:27:38.:27:41.

Until we get that decision and we get that runway

:27:42.:27:43.

built, we will continue to lose out on that trade.

:27:44.:27:47.

One airport that's eager to expand is Heathrow,

:27:48.:27:50.

either by expanding this northern runway, the one closest to us here,

:27:51.:27:53.

or, the Airports Commission's favourite proposal, building

:27:54.:27:56.

a new runway parallel to here, about a kilometre that way in place

:27:57.:28:00.

It's said that would offer 40 new destinations from the airport,

:28:01.:28:08.

carry lots more air freight, provide 70,000 new jobs

:28:09.:28:10.

and an overall boost to economic activity in the country,

:28:11.:28:15.

with a promise of no night flights, new environmental and community

:28:16.:28:18.

Heathrow's hub status also services many of the UK's other airports,

:28:19.:28:28.

On average, every year a quarter of a million passengers travel

:28:29.:28:34.

to and from this key exporting region via Heathrow,

:28:35.:28:36.

While we've been very strong supporters of a third runway

:28:37.:28:42.

at Heathrow, we think it's in the best interests

:28:43.:28:44.

of the north-east, we also think it's in the best

:28:45.:28:46.

Our services connect to many, many destinations across the world,

:28:47.:28:56.

and allow businesses to trade right the way across the globe.

:28:57.:29:03.

Gatwick Airport also wants to expand with another runway here.

:29:04.:29:09.

By doubling Gatwick's capacity, the plan would create 22,000

:29:10.:29:12.

new jobs, a vastly expanded short-haul network, and more

:29:13.:29:15.

I think the expansion of Gatwick will bring firstly

:29:16.:29:21.

the certainty of delivery, we can have spades in the ground

:29:22.:29:24.

in this Parliament and we can be operational in the next,

:29:25.:29:30.

so that's within ten years we can have a new runway,

:29:31.:29:32.

and Gatwick can provide the increased capacity at a price

:29:33.:29:35.

Now, before anyone gets carried away, there are of course some

:29:36.:29:43.

people who would far prefer no extra planes in the sky.

:29:44.:29:49.

We already fly more than everybody else,

:29:50.:29:51.

most of these are leisure flights, well who's taking

:29:52.:29:53.

Actually 70% of all of our flights are taken by 15% of the population.

:29:54.:29:59.

It's a wealthy frequent-flying elite.

:30:00.:30:03.

But with approval of a third runway looking likely,

:30:04.:30:09.

could more protests be on the horizon?

:30:10.:30:18.

I can tell you now, they are dusting off the handcuffs, you know,

:30:19.:30:21.

And you have to remember, Heathrow, if they choose to expand

:30:22.:30:24.

Heathrow, you are talking about hundreds of homes

:30:25.:30:26.

being bulldozed, whole communities being eradicated, wiped off the map.

:30:27.:30:29.

Over the last few years, since the last big protest around

:30:30.:30:32.

Heathrow, the relationship between local people around

:30:33.:30:34.

the airport and grass roots climate change activists

:30:35.:30:37.

Those guys are going to get together and just cause merry hell for people

:30:38.:30:42.

The Prime Minister, Theresa May, who once called for a better not

:30:43.:30:51.

bigger Heathrow whilst in opposition, will chair a select

:30:52.:30:54.

group of colleagues expected to decide imminently

:30:55.:30:57.

on whether to build a new runway and where.

:30:58.:31:00.

It will then take months for a national policy statement

:31:01.:31:03.

outlining the new works to get drawn up before MPs get to vote on it,

:31:04.:31:08.

leaving plenty of time for any further opposition to airport

:31:09.:31:12.

I've been joined by two Conservative MPs.

:31:13.:31:20.

Adam Afriyie is opposed to Heathrow expansion,

:31:21.:31:22.

Adam, the independent Daviess report into runway expansion said the case

:31:23.:31:43.

for Heathrow was clear and unanimous in the Commission. 180,000 more

:31:44.:31:49.

jobs, more than ?200 billion in economic benefits. So why are you

:31:50.:31:54.

putting the interests of your constituency before the national

:31:55.:31:58.

interest? I will fight tooth and nail for the interests of my

:31:59.:32:00.

constituents, but the wonderful thing about the binary choice

:32:01.:32:04.

between Heathrow and Gatwick is that it is not in the regional or

:32:05.:32:09.

consumers' interests to expand Heathrow. The Daviess report has

:32:10.:32:17.

already been largely undermined. There are 17 reasons why it doesn't

:32:18.:32:23.

work and is wrong. Number one, they said Gatwick would not have 42

:32:24.:32:30.

million passengers until 2024. This year, they already have 42 million

:32:31.:32:34.

passengers. Gatwick have increased their destinations to 20 now, which

:32:35.:32:39.

they didn't expect either. The Davies review was good in its day,

:32:40.:32:44.

but is it had a limited remit. They were talking about Heathrow as a

:32:45.:32:51.

hub, but the airline industry has changed. We have to pay to this for

:32:52.:32:56.

more than 15 years. The government White Paper in 2003 suggested we

:32:57.:33:05.

should expand Heathrow. ?20 million and 12 years later, the Davis Report

:33:06.:33:10.

came to the same conclusion. We are never going to get any form of

:33:11.:33:14.

progress on this is competing MPs are allowed to frustrate the

:33:15.:33:19.

process. You could have had about three people who are Gatwick MPs

:33:20.:33:24.

arguing very passionately against Adam's desire to expand Gatwick. The

:33:25.:33:30.

point is, we are in a paralysis. We are having a theological debate that

:33:31.:33:35.

will last decades, and Heathrow is... Why Heathrow? Why not expand

:33:36.:33:41.

Gatwick and increase the capacity of our regional airports? I thought the

:33:42.:33:45.

government's strategy was to rebalance the economy in favour of

:33:46.:33:49.

the North and the Midlands. If you listen to northern MPs, or people

:33:50.:33:54.

representing Northern or Scottish interests, they all say they want to

:33:55.:34:00.

increase Heathrow. The SNP said last week they wanted Heathrow to be

:34:01.:34:04.

expanded. If you want to help the economy is in those areas, listen to

:34:05.:34:08.

what they are saying. They are saying expand Heathrow. 32 regional

:34:09.:34:16.

airports support the expansion of Heathrow to maintain its position as

:34:17.:34:20.

one of the global hubs. Even the Scottish Government agrees with

:34:21.:34:25.

expanding Heathrow. They all say, we want to be a serious player in

:34:26.:34:31.

aviation. We need a global hub, and that is Heathrow. The interesting

:34:32.:34:34.

thing is that there is no argument that Heathrow is the UK hub, and no

:34:35.:34:39.

one is trying to get rid of that. But if you are adding a single new

:34:40.:34:44.

runway, is it better to add it at Heathrow or Gatwick, and for me it

:34:45.:35:00.

is overwhelmingly clear. Heathrow is the most expensive airport in the

:35:01.:35:03.

world. If you add another runway at taxpayer expense, you make it even

:35:04.:35:06.

more expensive. So flight prices go up. Whether or not Heathrow could

:35:07.:35:08.

ever be delivered is another question. My own Borough Council as

:35:09.:35:12.

part of the legal action... So even if the decision is made, we may not

:35:13.:35:18.

see the capacity. At Gatwick is dirt cheap. It can be delivered within

:35:19.:35:25.

ten years. But it is not a global hub airport. But the hub that we

:35:26.:35:29.

have at Heathrow is perfectly adequate for the next ten or 15

:35:30.:35:35.

years. It is running at 99% capacity. Every airline, the new

:35:36.:35:42.

planes being ordered... The airline have decided that the hub capacity

:35:43.:35:46.

is sufficient and they are moving to a different model. Let me ask you

:35:47.:35:54.

this. We haven't built a major new runway in London and the south-east

:35:55.:36:00.

for 60 years. Since 1946, so 70 years. Why not expand Heathrow and

:36:01.:36:07.

Gatwick? Personally, I would do both. If we are serious about having

:36:08.:36:11.

international trade and Golding links to the outside world,

:36:12.:36:17.

especially after Brexit, we have to get serious about aviation and

:36:18.:36:22.

accept that we need more capacity. I think it's scandalous we haven't

:36:23.:36:25.

managed to expand capacity for 70 years, when we think of the economic

:36:26.:36:29.

growth that has happened in that time. If we want to build a

:36:30.:36:34.

prosperous economy, it seems bizarre we are reluctant to increase

:36:35.:36:38.

aviation. Whatever the decision, do you think there will be a free vote

:36:39.:36:43.

on this? I think this is one area where I think the government does

:36:44.:36:56.

need to take a lead, and I hope they will make a rational choice for

:36:57.:36:58.

Gatwick. If the government comes out for Heathrow, will you defy the

:36:59.:37:04.

whips? Yes. I will always vote for Heathrow, because it doesn't make

:37:05.:37:10.

economic sense. If MPs are happy at the prospect of Heathrow... Does the

:37:11.:37:15.

figure strike a chord with you? I would hope there would be more, but

:37:16.:37:20.

it depends on the political position of Labour and the SNP. I hope that

:37:21.:37:24.

the government decides inclusively... Ad is doing what he

:37:25.:37:30.

feels is the best for his constituents. I think 60 is way off

:37:31.:37:35.

the mark. I don't know what journalists suggested 60 Tory MPs.

:37:36.:37:43.

My sense is that it is probably about 20 hard-core people in the

:37:44.:37:46.

House of Commons. I think it will be a free vote. If it is 20 hard-core,

:37:47.:37:54.

you will need Labour to get it through? Labour MPs were very keen

:37:55.:37:58.

on supporting Heathrow, in my experience. It may be delayed again,

:37:59.:38:05.

of course. After 70 years, what's another week here or there!

:38:06.:38:08.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:09.:38:21.

He's served Plaid Cymru in Westminster and Cardiff Bay

:38:22.:38:26.

for more than 40 years, even serving as leader but now

:38:27.:38:29.

Dafydd Elis Thomas says it's all over.

:38:30.:38:31.

He left the party on Friday night, sparking public words of sorrow

:38:32.:38:34.

and some anger from colleagues, but no doubt rancour

:38:35.:38:36.

Lord Elis Thomas joins us live in a moment, but his former

:38:37.:38:42.

colleague Rhun ap Iorwerth was keen to play down his decision.

:38:43.:38:47.

I think the wider implications for Plaid Cymru are very limited.

:38:48.:38:52.

I think what we had here was a very well-publicised and,

:38:53.:38:54.

let's be honest, fairly long drawn-out falling out

:38:55.:38:57.

between Dafydd Elis Thomas and Plaid Cymru.

:38:58.:39:01.

It's regretful to see a relationship of this sort, that lasted

:39:02.:39:04.

four or five decades, coming to an end in this way.

:39:05.:39:06.

This is a specific matter, relating to a specific Assembly member.

:39:07.:39:09.

Plaid Cymru's work of being an effective and efficient

:39:10.:39:12.

opposition, working constructively with government where

:39:13.:39:14.

And the now Independent AM for Dwyfor Meironnydd,

:39:15.:39:30.

Lord Elis Thomas, joins me from Bangor.

:39:31.:39:35.

Good morning. Thanks for joining me. Good morning. How does that sound,

:39:36.:39:48.

the independent AM? I quite like it. I didn't expect it to come to this,

:39:49.:39:54.

obviously especially after the period before the last election

:39:55.:39:57.

after the national executive of the party, held the local party to have

:39:58.:40:02.

a rerun selection conference to see if I was fit to be a candidate. I

:40:03.:40:09.

won the substantial vote there. But the programme we stood on was very

:40:10.:40:14.

much a programme for Gwyneth, for auroral Wales and the agricultural

:40:15.:40:21.

industry. Can I clear a few things up. You are saying this morning you

:40:22.:40:27.

made this decision, you started thinking about this before the

:40:28.:40:33.

election. Then we heard it said you had given assurances to your party

:40:34.:40:39.

you would be loyal to the party. Did you give those pursuer and since

:40:40.:40:43.

before the election, that you would be loyal to Plaid Cymru? I don't

:40:44.:40:48.

know where this is coming from. It is a report he has had from the

:40:49.:40:54.

meeting of executives. That is not true. There was no loyalty test. I

:40:55.:41:00.

was given a gagging order at that meeting, I was to check with the

:41:01.:41:04.

chair of the constituency party before making any controversial

:41:05.:41:07.

statement. I don't know what a controversial statement is! I manage

:41:08.:41:15.

to stick with that up to the election. But after that I hoped it

:41:16.:41:23.

would be a change of heart, the result that 47% of the vote would

:41:24.:41:30.

have been accepted by the party and they would have had a constructive

:41:31.:41:36.

part to play. You said you ran a local campaign, but those promises

:41:37.:41:41.

were printed on papers paid for by Plaid Cymru, the volunteers working

:41:42.:41:45.

for you were supporting Plaid Cymru. You said there is no constitutional

:41:46.:41:49.

case for you to trigger a by-election, and I'm sure you are

:41:50.:41:54.

right on that. But is there a moral case now that having relied so

:41:55.:41:58.

heavily on the Plaid Cymru machine, you should offer that vote to the

:41:59.:42:09.

local people? Here, we pay our way. I support my councillor colleagues

:42:10.:42:15.

where I live. But it is not true that Plaid Cymru here, when I was a

:42:16.:42:22.

candidate and a member of the assembly, was not subsidised by

:42:23.:42:27.

Plaid Cymru, essentially. To the country. Looking at your decision

:42:28.:42:31.

and why you have decided to walk away from Plaid Cymru, you said they

:42:32.:42:38.

are too keen to be an opposition party, not giving enough consensus

:42:39.:42:41.

and support to the Welsh government. Isn't that a two-way process? The

:42:42.:42:44.

Labour Party, the Welsh government are clear they don't want any more

:42:45.:42:48.

support than they have had from Plaid Cymru. Surely it is the job of

:42:49.:42:54.

an opposition to test and challenge the government? It is a very naive

:42:55.:42:59.

view of politics. I worked hard the devolution because I wanted politics

:43:00.:43:03.

in Wales to be different, I wanted it to be creative and do things

:43:04.:43:09.

together. It did happen in the early period and in the formal coalition.

:43:10.:43:15.

As soon as we have the vote about are should ship with the European

:43:16.:43:18.

Union, the key thing that should have happened, the parties that

:43:19.:43:21.

supported devolution should have understood the serious danger to the

:43:22.:43:27.

Constitution and Wales, the power for auroral issues, which are with

:43:28.:43:33.

the European Union, be brought back home, but brought back home to

:43:34.:43:38.

Westminster. But Plaid Cymru can still be united on those issues

:43:39.:43:42.

about keeping those powers devolved to the assembly. But it does mean

:43:43.:43:47.

rolling over to the Welsh government and the Labour Party. They can still

:43:48.:43:51.

have their own separate voice and agenda? It is not about rolling

:43:52.:43:56.

over, it is about building a strong government in Wales. I was proud to

:43:57.:44:03.

hear end Kenny when he was looking to negotiate with independent

:44:04.:44:07.

colleagues and as well with the two big parties in Ireland, every member

:44:08.:44:12.

had the responsibility to ensure a stable government for Ireland. When

:44:13.:44:15.

I was Presiding Officer, I was always on the lookout to try to

:44:16.:44:19.

ensure the government of Wales and the Constitution of Wales was always

:44:20.:44:25.

developing. The bill we have before us in Westminster is drawing power

:44:26.:44:30.

is back. These are the real dangers and that is why I want to see all

:44:31.:44:36.

strong supporters of devolution working together in the National

:44:37.:44:38.

Assembly. What happens next, if you were offered, would you accept a

:44:39.:44:43.

seat in Carwyn Jones's cabinet? It is not on offer. If it was? It

:44:44.:44:53.

wouldn't be, there is no prospect of a reshuffle the government and I

:44:54.:44:58.

wouldn't expect that. I am stating I want to be able to serve my

:44:59.:45:02.

constituency and serve the interests of Wales, especially the

:45:03.:45:04.

constitutional status and power is... Sorry to interrupt, but do you

:45:05.:45:09.

carry out that role best as an independent or in the Cabinet? Carry

:45:10.:45:15.

out the role of representing my constituents as an independent AM.

:45:16.:45:18.

The question of membership of the Welsh government does not arise. Try

:45:19.:45:24.

and nailed this down, you are saying it is not on offer, it hasn't

:45:25.:45:31.

arisen, but where it to arise, would it be yes or no from you? I don't

:45:32.:45:37.

think it is an appropriate hypothetical question at this stage.

:45:38.:45:40.

I have served Wales in any capacity I have been offered. That is not the

:45:41.:45:47.

issue. What you are trying to say is to prop up those people in my party

:45:48.:45:54.

that I am doing this for my own personal ambition. Of course I am

:45:55.:45:58.

ambitious, everybody in politics is ambitious and I ambitious for the

:45:59.:46:01.

people of Wales. I don't apologise for that. It has been suggested the

:46:02.:46:08.

door might be open to rejoin the party at some point. But is your

:46:09.:46:15.

membership as an elected AM of the party now gone? I will never say yes

:46:16.:46:21.

or no, but they should have looked after me when I was there.

:46:22.:46:32.

This is a pretty spectacular political divorce and we don't see

:46:33.:46:37.

many splits like this in Potter ticks. It is someone who has such

:46:38.:46:44.

experience in Plaid Cymru, many people think he embodies Plaid

:46:45.:46:49.

Cymru, Dafydd Elis Thoms and he is leaving the party. The difficulty he

:46:50.:46:55.

has got this has been pointed out by Plaid Cymru, the proximity to which

:46:56.:47:00.

this has happened to the assembly election. There will be arguments

:47:01.:47:03.

about what was said and what wasn't said, expressions of loyalty and the

:47:04.:47:11.

like. But if you stand for a party in elections and matter of months

:47:12.:47:19.

ago, you would expect a degree of loyalty there. Clearly, he feels

:47:20.:47:24.

this abrasive, robust approach in a position Plaid are taking tomorrow

:47:25.:47:28.

towards Labour, is not for him. But what would you expect under those

:47:29.:47:33.

circumstances? In his own mind, he believes the voters voted for him as

:47:34.:47:37.

a pseudo- independent already and that is how he is justifying the

:47:38.:47:44.

cause and his rejection of the cause for a by-election to be held there.

:47:45.:47:50.

There is an interesting story, about inside Plaid Cymru, there is a

:47:51.:47:53.

fascinating numbers game in the assembly. 60 assembly members now,

:47:54.:47:59.

if they can rely on the support of Dafydd Elis Thoms, than Labour,

:48:00.:48:03.

presumably has 31. They have 20 9am is with Kirsty Williams on board,

:48:04.:48:09.

maybe Dafydd Elis Thoms, it gives them the majority they have been

:48:10.:48:17.

looking for. He is not biting, it is terms of whether he would take the

:48:18.:48:24.

offer in the future? Labour have introduced a liberal Democrat into

:48:25.:48:28.

the government. It might be difficult to bring a Plaid Cymru

:48:29.:48:33.

member in in the future. We have a series of committees that Labour are

:48:34.:48:38.

involved with with Plaid Cymru at the moment, although it is not a

:48:39.:48:42.

formal coalition. The real test is when we get the budget. I thought it

:48:43.:48:48.

would be inevitable, however the working relationship between Labour

:48:49.:48:51.

and Plaid pans out, for Plaid and the Tories to put the squeeze on

:48:52.:48:56.

labour, when you have a floating, independent Abba, a potential get

:48:57.:49:00.

out of jail card for Labour in Dafydd Elis Thoms. In a way, that is

:49:01.:49:06.

the wider significance of the decision we have seen. Carwyn Jones

:49:07.:49:14.

said he wants to reach out, is he tempted to save two Plaid Cymru, I

:49:15.:49:19.

have got the numbers, forget the deal? The entire tone since the

:49:20.:49:25.

assembly campaign has become celerity. One of the questions at

:49:26.:49:29.

the assembly is, what a relationship with Plaid will be. In response,

:49:30.:49:35.

Plaid have been very robust. He now has potential options, it be

:49:36.:49:39.

fascinating to see how he plays it in the months ahead. Thank you for

:49:40.:49:41.

in. This week is budget week

:49:42.:49:44.

in Cardiff Bay, when we find out how the Welsh Government

:49:45.:49:47.

shares out it's, just shy And we expect one of the big-ticket

:49:48.:49:48.

items will be childcare. Labour has promised working parents

:49:49.:49:53.

30 hours free childcare a week But the author of the report

:49:54.:49:56.

which led to that policy, says it could cost more than twice

:49:57.:50:00.

as much as estimated. In a moment, we'll be getting

:50:01.:50:03.

the former First Minister's take on all this and other budget

:50:04.:50:06.

shenanigans, but first this It's breakfast time

:50:07.:50:08.

at Little Inspirations nursery in Llantrisant in Rhondda,

:50:09.:50:12.

Cynon, Taff. This kind of service can be

:50:13.:50:16.

of significant cost to parents. But the Welsh government is planning

:50:17.:50:19.

to give a helping hand. Under its plan, parents working 16

:50:20.:50:26.

hours or more a week, would be entitled to 30 hours free

:50:27.:50:30.

child week for three would be entitled to 30 hours free

:50:31.:50:38.

child care a week for three and four-year-olds and it would be

:50:39.:50:41.

available 48 weeks of the year. That's 20 hours more per week

:50:42.:50:44.

than currently on offer. Me and my partner both want to work,

:50:45.:50:46.

we both do work, but the cost, you've got to weigh up

:50:47.:50:51.

things, haven't you? You've got to be in good jobs to be

:50:52.:50:53.

able to afford basic childcare. It's crazy in our house

:50:54.:50:56.

at the moment because we just work I basically work to pay

:50:57.:50:59.

to keep my little boy in nursery, but if I obviously had free

:51:00.:51:04.

childcare, I would work a lot more. The cost of childcare is just

:51:05.:51:07.

so hard at the moment, I'm having to just work to pay

:51:08.:51:09.

for the childcare costs. The government has already said

:51:10.:51:14.

new commitments have to be funded by taking chunks out

:51:15.:51:18.

of budgets elsewhere. During the assembly election

:51:19.:51:21.

campaign, Labour estimated it would be an extra

:51:22.:51:27.

?84 million a year. Last year, a report for the Welsh

:51:28.:51:30.

government analysed this policy It said a cost of ?84 million a year

:51:31.:51:33.

would be based on 87% of parents currently working, taking up

:51:34.:51:39.

the offer and the childcare costing But the author of that report has

:51:40.:51:43.

now told Sunday Politics Wales that the actual cost could end

:51:44.:51:52.

up being much higher, especially if the policy

:51:53.:51:54.

achieves its aim, of getting In estimating the cost of this

:51:55.:51:58.

policy, there are several parameters that feed into that estimate,

:51:59.:52:06.

all of which have large degrees First of all, we do need to know

:52:07.:52:08.

the hourly cost of delivery, which can vary enormously

:52:09.:52:15.

across regions and different We also need to know most

:52:16.:52:17.

importantly, how parents In particular whether they will

:52:18.:52:21.

change their work behaviour in response to the policy,

:52:22.:52:24.

which is hard to estimate. Gillian Paull's initial report

:52:25.:52:27.

concluded the report wouldn't do much to get parents into work,

:52:28.:52:30.

but the government insists it removes a major barrier

:52:31.:52:33.

to employment. If the government is right,

:52:34.:52:36.

Gillian says the upper cost limit of the policy could be

:52:37.:52:42.

as high as ?200 million. The availability of places

:52:43.:52:45.

could also become a problem. If for example, we look

:52:46.:52:50.

at the number of child childcare places relative to the population,

:52:51.:52:53.

in Wales it's about 30 childcare It is about 40 in England and it's

:52:54.:52:55.

nearly 50 in Scotland. We are starting from a very low base

:52:56.:53:00.

of childcare provision, so one of the big problems we have

:53:01.:53:03.

in delivering this extra childcare is, there isn't very much childcare

:53:04.:53:08.

to offer in the first place. The Welsh government acknowledges

:53:09.:53:11.

there are issues with capacity and says it's working

:53:12.:53:13.

with the sector. It's also undertaking

:53:14.:53:15.

complex modelling of costs. The Welsh government's announcement

:53:16.:53:21.

last week it plans to end its anti-poverty programme

:53:22.:53:25.

Communities First could ultimately So where else will it need

:53:26.:53:27.

to look to find money They'll have to look to other

:53:28.:53:32.

budgets, health, education, environmental protection,

:53:33.:53:38.

to see where they can make cuts The last five years have undoubtedly

:53:39.:53:40.

been tough for the Welsh government's budget,

:53:41.:53:45.

they've come under sustained pressure because of

:53:46.:53:48.

reductions at Westminster. So there's not much fat

:53:49.:53:51.

left to trim. So the choices Welsh Labour

:53:52.:53:54.

ministers will have to make The government will need to start

:53:55.:53:58.

finding money for this policy The full cost will kick

:53:59.:54:07.

in further down the line. It could become a tricky balancing

:54:08.:54:10.

act. The former First Minister Rhodri

:54:11.:54:13.

Morgan has vast experience of dealing with these matters

:54:14.:54:17.

and joins me now. Good morning. We have asked you to

:54:18.:54:29.

come in to discuss the budget and what the deal should be. But Dafydd

:54:30.:54:35.

Elis Thoms's defection and decision to stand as an independent changes a

:54:36.:54:41.

lot of this discussion around the budget? One-vote makes an enormous

:54:42.:54:45.

difference in the mathematics of the assembly because Labour has 30 and

:54:46.:54:52.

what you have got now is with Dafydd Elis Thomas not crossing the floor,

:54:53.:54:55.

but leaving the Plaid Cymru group, means that 30 suddenly becomes much

:54:56.:55:01.

more comfortable than it was before. You cannot get a budget through with

:55:02.:55:07.

30. You must have the support of at least one person from another party,

:55:08.:55:12.

or the whole of another party, which is Labour set up the joint committee

:55:13.:55:17.

with Plaid. They don't need that any more if Dafydd Elis Thomas is

:55:18.:55:21.

genuinely an independent. All they need to do is occasionally talk to

:55:22.:55:27.

him about new schools in his area and constituency. We know for the

:55:28.:55:31.

last three or four months, Plaid Cymru and Labour have had this

:55:32.:55:36.

committee looking ahead to the budget. If you are Carwyn Jones now,

:55:37.:55:41.

would you be thinking, let's continue with those discussions with

:55:42.:55:45.

Plaid Cymru, or would you be thinking, a new school in his

:55:46.:55:50.

constituency and I would have Dafydd Elis Thomas's support. Plaid have

:55:51.:55:54.

lost their leveraged. It is amazing that in a small body like the

:55:55.:56:02.

assembly with just 16 seats -- 60 seats and Labour having 30 of them,

:56:03.:56:07.

the difference one person can make. If Labour are one vote short of

:56:08.:56:12.

getting a budget through. They can block things because 30-30 is not

:56:13.:56:18.

enough. You have to have one extra person. With Plaid having lost that

:56:19.:56:24.

one, Labour haven't gained that one, but Plaid have lost their leveraged

:56:25.:56:27.

over the Labour government. The committees will probably continue

:56:28.:56:32.

but the Plaid strength on those committees is severely depleted by

:56:33.:56:37.

the defection of Dafydd Elis Thomas. I want to get onto the budget

:56:38.:56:43.

discussions as soon as possible. If you say Labour hasn't gained Dafydd

:56:44.:56:48.

Elis Thomas, which is true, but if you were Carwyn Jones, would you be

:56:49.:56:53.

tempted to offer him a seat in the cabinet? No, it is not practical.

:56:54.:56:58.

They have done it with Kirsty Williams. It was admired as a

:56:59.:57:03.

courageous thing for Carwyn Jones to do. Very courageous for Kirsty, on

:57:04.:57:11.

her own now. She accepted and with all the dangers of the Lib Dems be

:57:12.:57:17.

incorporated with the Labour majority, but it is still not enough

:57:18.:57:24.

to get the budget through. I don't think Labour would be happy and I am

:57:25.:57:31.

not sure Plaid, I am not sure Dafydd Elis Thomas has the ambition to be

:57:32.:57:36.

in the Labour Cabinet. He is just thoroughly cheesed off with a

:57:37.:57:40.

mindless opposition is, which he sees as part of Leanne Wood 's'

:57:41.:57:43.

leadership style in Plaid Cymru. So he has decided to become an

:57:44.:57:46.

independent after being Plaid's leader 30 years ago, and has

:57:47.:57:53.

represented his constituency for over 40 years now. On the budget

:57:54.:58:00.

itself and the details we can expect on Tuesday, there is a tiny bit of

:58:01.:58:05.

wriggle room, having scrapped Communities first, ?30 million to

:58:06.:58:10.

play with for the finance secretary. Where do you think the priority

:58:11.:58:14.

should be for the Welsh government? A lot of this is guesswork. Because

:58:15.:58:21.

the Autumn Statement from Philip Hammond will not take place until

:58:22.:58:25.

November the 23rd. Nobody knows whether he is going to reduce the

:58:26.:58:31.

austerity drive. He said he doesn't want to bring the borrowing down to

:58:32.:58:37.

zero by 2020. Should they have delayed it until after? I think that

:58:38.:58:42.

is what they are doing in Scotland. But you can't delay it in Wales. You

:58:43.:58:50.

have got to at least start. There is three stages to it, the second two

:58:51.:58:55.

stages will take place after the Autumn Statement. There will be

:58:56.:58:58.

bargaining across the parties, certainly there will be bargaining

:58:59.:59:01.

with Dafydd Elis Thomas under the new circumstances. I am trying to

:59:02.:59:06.

get what is trying to happen as regards, in particular those things

:59:07.:59:10.

subject to all the Brexit negotiations will revert to

:59:11.:59:14.

Westminster. They have guaranteed the European regional development

:59:15.:59:18.

fund equivalent. We can go ahead with projects, even though we might

:59:19.:59:23.

be out of the EU when we are halfway through those projects. But the

:59:24.:59:29.

issue then is, who will control the money? Will it be given to Cardiff

:59:30.:59:34.

Bay to spend or will the Treasury try and keep control of it and say,

:59:35.:59:39.

you can have regional development fund, but we will tell you the

:59:40.:59:42.

priorities and likewise for agriculture. A lot will happen and a

:59:43.:59:47.

lot of juggling of the balls in the air will take place between now and

:59:48.:59:52.

next March. Childcare, we told it would be ?84 million a year, but the

:59:53.:59:58.

lady who wrote the report, Labour is basing it on says comic could be

:59:59.:00:02.

?200 million a year. It is a difficult balancing act when those

:00:03.:00:06.

figures are never easy to nail down? Know, sometimes you start and think

:00:07.:00:12.

you can control the budget. Humans beings being the flexible animals

:00:13.:00:18.

they are, you end up spending more than you anticipated. You have got

:00:19.:00:24.

to be careful about long-term commitments, can you keep control

:00:25.:00:30.

over them in order to make sure you can still, during a period where

:00:31.:00:35.

there may be some slackening of austerity from everything Philip

:00:36.:00:39.

Hammond has said, but we are still in a period of austerity because you

:00:40.:00:45.

only have to look at the huge public sector borrowing requirement to

:00:46.:00:49.

realise it has got to be brought under some control at some point but

:00:50.:00:53.

without killing of economic growth. Is it where you think they should be

:00:54.:00:58.

targeting in those early years? Is it a good way to look at it? Early

:00:59.:01:05.

years is hugely important because the investment you make and the

:01:06.:01:11.

early in a child's life you make the investment, the chants is greater of

:01:12.:01:13.

reducing the gap investment, the chants is greater of

:01:14.:01:16.

in return for renewing vehicles. You.

:01:17.:01:19.

Will MPs get a vote on Theresa May's Brexit plans?

:01:20.:01:25.

Why are the Lib Dems throwing everything they've got

:01:26.:01:28.

at the by-election in David Cameron's old constituency?

:01:29.:01:30.

And what will happen next in the US presidential election?

:01:31.:01:33.

So this cross-party push to make the government come forward with the

:01:34.:01:58.

outlines of this negotiating strategy for Brexit, and put it to

:01:59.:02:02.

the Commons in particular, has that got traction? It has in that it is

:02:03.:02:07.

attracting a wide range of support in the House of Commons, which is

:02:08.:02:12.

now the crucial forum for these debates. Theresa May has said there

:02:13.:02:19.

will not be a vote before she triggers article 50. So we have two

:02:20.:02:23.

assume there will not be a vote. With this whole debate, there is a

:02:24.:02:26.

myth going about that we don't know much about what Brexit means. We

:02:27.:02:32.

know a heck of a lot about what it means. We know that when she opens

:02:33.:02:38.

her mouth, the pound falls. The pound is in a different position to

:02:39.:02:42.

the other Brexiteers. There is an accountability issue in terms of

:02:43.:02:46.

what the House of Commons will have a say in, and that could become a

:02:47.:02:52.

big story. Nicola Sturgeon has supported a second referendum. We

:02:53.:02:57.

know a huge amount, all of it dire, and I hope that MPs do get votes at

:02:58.:03:07.

some point. I suspect they will. For example, we are going to get one on

:03:08.:03:10.

this so-called repeal act, which is an act of consolidation. There will

:03:11.:03:14.

be others. We cannot leave the European Union without votes, but I

:03:15.:03:19.

don't think we will get one on Article 50. What they seem to be

:03:20.:03:23.

pushing for at the moment is a vote on the government's bargaining

:03:24.:03:27.

position. They are not saying they want all the details, although

:03:28.:03:37.

Labour has asked 70 questions. The Commons needs to improve them, it is

:03:38.:03:43.

said. Is that fair? It is absurd. You don't go into negotiating with

:03:44.:03:49.

Brussels talking about what was published in all the national

:03:50.:03:52.

newspapers last week about what our red lines are. I don't remember any

:03:53.:03:58.

other international trade deal being done in the public eye. Theresa May

:03:59.:04:05.

hasn't said a red line on immigration. She has uttered those

:04:06.:04:10.

words. There are lots of other intricate details. Of course they

:04:11.:04:15.

are, but we broadly know her position. And broadly we know the EU

:04:16.:04:21.

position. Broad knowledge is not the same as specific. The point is that

:04:22.:04:25.

the British Parliament, all these people who are so obsessed with the

:04:26.:04:30.

British Parliament having its say and democracy, they didn't care for

:04:31.:04:34.

very many years when they happily handed over powers. The Lisbon

:04:35.:04:39.

Treaty, which is like a new constitution. It handed over far

:04:40.:04:46.

more powers again and again. And there was an express vote not to

:04:47.:04:49.

have a referendum for the British people. But we have now given our

:04:50.:04:55.

say. Putting aside whether you are for or against, is it realistic that

:04:56.:04:58.

the government will come forward with some kind of green paper all

:04:59.:05:02.

white paper that gives a broad outline of the government's Brexit

:05:03.:05:08.

position? When you have the majority of between ten and 20, there is one

:05:09.:05:14.

thing you have to do as Prime Minister, and that is to learn to

:05:15.:05:19.

count. Theresa May hasn't done that. There will be a vote in the House of

:05:20.:05:23.

Commons. Whether it's binding or not, because MPs will make one. What

:05:24.:05:30.

will vote be on? They will demand that the government spelt out its

:05:31.:05:35.

Brexit strategy. It will not be binding, unless they tried to

:05:36.:05:39.

shoehorn something onto government legislation, which I don't think

:05:40.:05:44.

they will do. They will be unsure. The will of the House of Commons

:05:45.:05:48.

will express itself simply because there is a majority in the House of

:05:49.:05:53.

Commons, a clear one, for soft Brexit. There will be a vote, the

:05:54.:05:58.

government will lose it, and then it is up to Theresa May whether to pay

:05:59.:06:03.

any attention to it. But she has got herself into this problem because

:06:04.:06:08.

she has adopted the views of the 52 against the 48, dropping any sort of

:06:09.:06:12.

language about consensus and bringing the country back together.

:06:13.:06:19.

If the Commons votes against the government on this, it will be seen

:06:20.:06:23.

as a major setback for the government and the Prime Minister.

:06:24.:06:28.

Yes, seismic. Of course she can ignore it if you are talking about

:06:29.:06:32.

it in relation to triggering Article 50. In a way, it happened with

:06:33.:06:38.

Maastricht as well. The House of Commons will move centrestage, and

:06:39.:06:42.

that context is that tiny majority. She has a smaller majority than John

:06:43.:06:51.

Major had in the 90s, and it's going to be far more turbulent than

:06:52.:06:53.

perhaps her calm, assured a facade suggests. Theresa May is a serious,

:06:54.:07:01.

fully formed politician, with six years in the Home Office, but she

:07:02.:07:06.

has never had experience of the Treasury or the Foreign Office. This

:07:07.:07:10.

is massive, massive politics, and I don't think she's ready for it. I

:07:11.:07:16.

don't blame her for that. If it comes to a conflict between the

:07:17.:07:21.

result of the referendum and the position Parliament has taken, there

:07:22.:07:26.

is a chance she will call another election? Effectively, it will be a

:07:27.:07:30.

vote of no-confidence in her government. She should call another

:07:31.:07:35.

election. I think the British people be very clear. The remainers I know

:07:36.:07:40.

have all completely accept it that we are going to have this. There is

:07:41.:07:44.

a mandate for leaves and the Prime Minister should get on with it. I

:07:45.:07:48.

think the British people will not take kindly to any MP who gets in

:07:49.:07:52.

the way. We have two by-elections this week. One in Whitley and one in

:07:53.:08:01.

Batley and Spen, the seat held by Jo Cox. The main parties are not

:08:02.:08:04.

competing in that because of the appalling circumstances in which her

:08:05.:08:12.

terrible murder took place. The Lib Dems are coming big in Witney. They

:08:13.:08:18.

came fourth in the general election, rather forepaws, that they are

:08:19.:08:22.

bigging themselves up in this one. That wise? They've got to do

:08:23.:08:26.

something to get themselves attention. They need to get noticed.

:08:27.:08:35.

But what they have in their favour is that the constituency Witney

:08:36.:08:40.

voted 53% remain and 47% leave in the EU referendum. So they will be

:08:41.:08:45.

trying to get the remain a vote. This is the first test of their

:08:46.:08:50.

remain a strategy. It is interesting that Theresa May bothered to come

:08:51.:08:56.

out and campaign on Saturdays. There she is. The Prime Minister and the

:08:57.:09:04.

former Prime Minister out campaigning. They are not going to

:09:05.:09:10.

win, that they would have to come second. David Cameron had a 60% vote

:09:11.:09:17.

there, for goodness sake. The Tory candidate was a Leave campaign. The

:09:18.:09:22.

fact she is out campaigning isn't a sign of lack of confidence. She must

:09:23.:09:27.

be confident they will win, otherwise she wouldn't be seen near

:09:28.:09:32.

the place. OK, the American election. Just when you thought it

:09:33.:09:37.

couldn't get crazier. We are familiar with drug tests for

:09:38.:09:42.

athletes and cyclists, and all sorts of things in sport. But Mr Trump has

:09:43.:09:46.

now called for a drug test before the third and final debate coming up

:09:47.:09:51.

this Wednesday. Am I making it up? No, I'm not.

:09:52.:09:54.

I think we should take a drug test prior to the debate.

:09:55.:09:57.

We should take a drug test prior, because I don't know

:09:58.:10:02.

what's going on with her, but at the beginning of her last

:10:03.:10:06.

debate she was all pumped up at the beginning,

:10:07.:10:12.

and at the end it was like, uuh, take me down.

:10:13.:10:15.

So I think we should take a drug test.

:10:16.:10:19.

He's also talking about the election being rigged as well, which may be

:10:20.:10:36.

ground work for making his excuses. But here's the issue. That was

:10:37.:10:42.

yesterday. With everything that went before, overnight, the latest

:10:43.:10:47.

Washington post-ABC News poll. Mrs Clinton is ahead by only four

:10:48.:10:51.

points. It's almost within the margin of error. Down from about ten

:10:52.:10:56.

points after sexual assault gate. The simple reason why Trump got the

:10:57.:11:04.

Republican nomination, beating 50 or 60 Republican moderates, why he's

:11:05.:11:09.

been doing pretty well in the polls until the last two of weeks, people

:11:10.:11:13.

buy into the anti-establishment thing. All you need to do is stand

:11:14.:11:18.

there and say, of course they would say that, because they are all

:11:19.:11:21.

crooked. That is the single biggest thing he's got going for him. The

:11:22.:11:30.

Washington Post - ABC News poll suggests the whole business of the

:11:31.:11:34.

nude tapes actually haven't made that much difference. -- huge tape.

:11:35.:11:47.

-- lewd tape. Once you position yourself, you can almost say

:11:48.:11:57.

anything you like, and then respond by saying, the elite would say that,

:11:58.:12:01.

wouldn't they? You cannot really deal with that as an argument,

:12:02.:12:06.

because you would just say, oh, that's you lot, you would say that.

:12:07.:12:12.

There is a point where it becomes absurd, though, and I think this

:12:13.:12:17.

current thing on doping tests is laugh out loud stuff. That surely

:12:18.:12:24.

can't help him. You cannot think, what are the undecideds thinking

:12:25.:12:31.

about this? There was a lot of information, not in the century, but

:12:32.:12:34.

some information is more e-mails from Mrs Clinton are leaked. They

:12:35.:12:43.

are showing her to be very much a globalisation person, very close to

:12:44.:12:53.

Wall Street, talking about why... As Donald Trump said last week, it was

:12:54.:12:59.

good to have the shackles off. This is him with the shackles off. The

:13:00.:13:04.

reality is, all the stuff about Hillary not being very likeable and

:13:05.:13:09.

dishonest, that is already factored into the polls. All the stuff about

:13:10.:13:13.

Donald Trump being lecherous and racist is already factored in. What

:13:14.:13:18.

still blows my mind is that people are still undecided! He's given

:13:19.:13:24.

Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. It is going to be very interesting to

:13:25.:13:26.

see. Jo Coburn has more Daily Politics

:13:27.:13:28.

tomorrow at midday on BBC Two. I'll be back next Sunday

:13:29.:13:32.

at 11am here on BBC One. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:33.:13:34.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:35.:13:39.

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