Browse content similar to 27/11/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:38. | :00:41. | |
Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator? | :00:42. | :00:46. | |
After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy. | :00:47. | :00:50. | |
Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency | :00:51. | :00:55. | |
The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live. | :00:56. | :01:00. | |
Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms | :01:01. | :01:03. | |
of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU? | :01:04. | :01:07. | |
Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head. | :01:11. | :01:13. | |
How changes to the Labour rule book could decide who'll be | :01:14. | :01:16. | |
the next First Minister, and what really happens behind | :01:17. | :01:18. | |
the scenes when political leaders get together? | :01:19. | :01:33. | |
And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards. | :01:34. | :01:36. | |
They'll be tweeting throughout the programme | :01:37. | :01:39. | |
Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news | :01:40. | :01:45. | |
of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came | :01:46. | :01:48. | |
to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution. | :01:49. | :01:52. | |
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader | :01:53. | :01:57. | |
as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked | :01:58. | :02:00. | |
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social | :02:01. | :02:04. | |
justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents" | :02:05. | :02:06. | |
President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader | :02:07. | :02:11. | |
as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people | :02:15. | :02:17. | |
finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve". | :02:18. | :02:22. | |
Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission, | :02:23. | :02:24. | |
Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged | :02:28. | :02:30. | |
I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the | :02:31. | :02:45. | |
reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I | :02:46. | :02:49. | |
noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to | :02:50. | :02:57. | |
Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house, | :03:02. | :03:05. | |
agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many | :03:06. | :03:08. | |
people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream | :03:13. | :03:17. | |
consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this | :03:18. | :03:21. | |
respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would | :03:22. | :03:26. | |
be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way. | :03:27. | :03:32. | |
Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have | :03:33. | :03:35. | |
looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection | :03:36. | :03:41. | |
for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error | :03:42. | :03:45. | |
dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor? | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He | :03:50. | :03:56. | |
wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually | :03:57. | :03:59. | |
look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a | :04:03. | :04:09. | |
champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been | :04:10. | :04:13. | |
utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have | :04:14. | :04:19. | |
thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic | :04:20. | :04:23. | |
failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when | :04:24. | :04:29. | |
Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any | :04:35. | :04:41. | |
criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There | :04:42. | :04:53. | |
were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would | :04:54. | :04:56. | |
have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban | :04:57. | :05:05. | |
solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It | :05:06. | :05:10. | |
existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans, | :05:11. | :05:14. | |
who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday | :05:15. | :05:18. | |
saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He | :05:24. | :05:28. | |
never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks | :05:29. | :05:35. | |
ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The | :05:36. | :05:42. | |
lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated | :05:43. | :05:49. | |
stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was | :05:50. | :05:55. | |
working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there | :05:56. | :06:02. | |
will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say | :06:07. | :06:12. | |
it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism | :06:13. | :06:28. | |
that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime | :06:29. | :06:35. | |
Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to | :06:36. | :06:41. | |
open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing | :06:42. | :06:46. | |
brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him. | :06:47. | :06:49. | |
When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying | :06:50. | :06:57. | |
the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a | :07:03. | :07:05. | |
leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either | :07:06. | :07:10. | |
decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it | :07:11. | :07:16. | |
was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure | :07:17. | :07:20. | |
worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed. | :07:21. | :07:25. | |
There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they | :07:26. | :07:29. | |
sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris | :07:30. | :07:36. | |
Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to | :07:37. | :07:43. | |
deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba. | :07:44. | :07:47. | |
And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr | :07:48. | :07:56. | |
Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island. | :07:57. | :07:59. | |
That was what made it so fascinating. | :08:00. | :08:00. | |
Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020 | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth | :08:09. | :08:11. | |
Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling | :08:12. | :08:18. | |
"Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings, | :08:19. | :08:20. | |
but some of the proposals are already running into local | :08:21. | :08:27. | |
opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS. | :08:28. | :08:30. | |
Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire. | :08:31. | :08:36. | |
But east of England ambulance call operators | :08:37. | :08:39. | |
they're sending an early intervention vehicle | :08:40. | :08:43. | |
with a council-employed occupational therapist on board. | :08:44. | :08:51. | |
It's being piloted here for over 65s with | :08:52. | :08:53. | |
When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be | :08:54. | :08:59. | |
treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital. | :09:00. | :09:01. | |
Around 80% of patients have been treated this way, | :09:02. | :09:04. | |
taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds, | :09:05. | :09:07. | |
So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided | :09:08. | :09:13. | |
The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able | :09:14. | :09:26. | |
to collaboratively look at how we use our resources, | :09:27. | :09:28. | |
to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand | :09:29. | :09:30. | |
where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how | :09:31. | :09:33. | |
best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems | :09:34. | :09:38. | |
that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively. | :09:39. | :09:41. | |
This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how | :09:42. | :09:43. | |
You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more. | :09:44. | :09:50. | |
The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road. | :09:51. | :09:56. | |
What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital. | :09:57. | :09:58. | |
Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
through after broad public and political consultation | :10:03. | :10:04. | |
with hospital clinicians and GPs on board. | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS | :10:09. | :10:11. | |
trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September. | :10:12. | :10:18. | |
It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide | :10:19. | :10:21. | |
The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS | :10:22. | :10:27. | |
in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion | :10:28. | :10:34. | |
worth of efficiencies across the country. | :10:35. | :10:36. | |
In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health | :10:37. | :10:38. | |
and care partnerships, and each one will provide | :10:39. | :10:41. | |
a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care, | :10:42. | :10:45. | |
provide better services and save money. | :10:46. | :10:49. | |
So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people | :10:50. | :10:53. | |
in the health service and local government, | :10:54. | :10:56. | |
The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending | :10:57. | :11:02. | |
growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least. | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way | :11:07. | :11:12. | |
But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number | :11:13. | :11:18. | |
of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed | :11:24. | :11:27. | |
This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his | :11:28. | :11:31. | |
I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close | :11:32. | :11:39. | |
all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out | :11:40. | :11:43. | |
of the acute sector who are elderly and looking | :11:44. | :11:45. | |
That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving, | :11:46. | :11:48. | |
All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time, | :11:49. | :11:57. | |
But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs. | :11:58. | :12:02. | |
The Government's sustainability and transformation plans | :12:03. | :12:05. | |
for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts. | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings | :12:11. | :12:13. | |
within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS. | :12:14. | :12:18. | |
There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either. | :12:19. | :12:22. | |
Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week | :12:23. | :12:25. | |
about the importance of community hospitals in general, | :12:26. | :12:29. | |
These are proposals out to consultation. | :12:30. | :12:35. | |
What could happen if these plans get blocked? | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come | :12:41. | :12:44. | |
to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned | :12:45. | :12:49. | |
deterioration and services becoming unstable and service | :12:50. | :12:51. | |
The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement | :12:52. | :12:57. | |
but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs | :12:58. | :13:04. | |
are in the interests of local people. | :13:05. | :13:06. | |
Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England | :13:07. | :13:08. | |
to push through these controversial regional plans, | :13:09. | :13:10. | |
which will soon face public scrutiny. | :13:11. | :13:16. | |
We did ask the Department of Health for an interview, | :13:17. | :13:22. | |
I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary, | :13:23. | :13:25. | |
Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of | :13:26. | :13:42. | |
efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of | :13:43. | :13:45. | |
independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22 | :13:46. | :13:50. | |
billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you | :13:51. | :13:54. | |
drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have | :13:55. | :13:58. | |
been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that | :13:59. | :14:01. | |
some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community | :14:02. | :14:05. | |
pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000 | :14:06. | :14:09. | |
pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and | :14:10. | :14:14. | |
GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed, | :14:15. | :14:18. | |
which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a | :14:19. | :14:26. | |
local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these | :14:27. | :14:32. | |
efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from | :14:33. | :14:35. | |
Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve | :14:36. | :14:42. | |
health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable | :14:43. | :14:49. | |
transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical | :14:50. | :14:52. | |
health, mental health and social care, for those services to | :14:53. | :14:57. | |
collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented | :14:58. | :14:59. | |
system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground | :15:00. | :15:06. | |
has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know, | :15:07. | :15:10. | |
the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By | :15:11. | :15:15. | |
2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to | :15:16. | :15:18. | |
redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the | :15:19. | :15:24. | |
money in. So of course, getting these services working better | :15:25. | :15:27. | |
together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would | :15:28. | :15:31. | |
have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the | :15:32. | :15:36. | |
last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is | :15:37. | :15:41. | |
an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that? | :15:42. | :15:48. | |
Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22 | :15:49. | :15:55. | |
billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently. | :15:56. | :16:00. | |
But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have | :16:06. | :16:11. | |
changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by | :16:12. | :16:16. | |
2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by | :16:17. | :16:22. | |
20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually | :16:23. | :16:26. | |
transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the | :16:27. | :16:30. | |
commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been | :16:31. | :16:35. | |
cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year | :16:36. | :16:39. | |
project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the | :16:40. | :16:42. | |
Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week | :16:43. | :16:48. | |
there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the | :16:49. | :16:55. | |
efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by | :16:56. | :17:00. | |
2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with | :17:06. | :17:08. | |
everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers | :17:09. | :17:14. | |
and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I | :17:15. | :17:21. | |
had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they | :17:22. | :17:27. | |
expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by | :17:28. | :17:32. | |
now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea? | :17:33. | :17:37. | |
To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The | :17:38. | :17:42. | |
budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like | :17:43. | :17:49. | |
co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a | :17:50. | :18:00. | |
plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in | :18:01. | :18:06. | |
2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is | :18:07. | :18:10. | |
committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently | :18:11. | :18:16. | |
John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are | :18:17. | :18:21. | |
talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current | :18:22. | :18:25. | |
spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the | :18:26. | :18:29. | |
money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If | :18:30. | :18:36. | |
you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from | :18:37. | :18:47. | |
the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending? | :18:48. | :18:51. | |
That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for | :18:52. | :19:00. | |
Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to | :19:01. | :19:04. | |
give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the | :19:05. | :19:08. | |
Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do | :19:09. | :19:13. | |
it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like | :19:18. | :19:21. | |
any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what | :19:22. | :19:25. | |
the books look like a head of an election before making commitments. | :19:26. | :19:31. | |
I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election | :19:32. | :19:34. | |
with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has | :19:35. | :19:37. | |
been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history. | :19:38. | :19:42. | |
You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not | :19:43. | :19:47. | |
a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment | :19:48. | :19:52. | |
to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting | :19:53. | :19:56. | |
a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about | :19:57. | :20:01. | |
4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that | :20:02. | :20:06. | |
substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to | :20:10. | :20:18. | |
be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap | :20:19. | :20:23. | |
in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what | :20:24. | :20:28. | |
this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an | :20:29. | :20:34. | |
efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we | :20:35. | :20:39. | |
agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see | :20:40. | :20:43. | |
productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through | :20:44. | :20:51. | |
investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog. | :20:52. | :20:57. | |
One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They | :20:58. | :21:04. | |
are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe | :21:05. | :21:08. | |
that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that | :21:09. | :21:11. | |
contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking | :21:12. | :21:16. | |
about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30 | :21:17. | :21:22. | |
billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend | :21:23. | :21:29. | |
more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper | :21:30. | :21:32. | |
care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40 | :21:33. | :21:36. | |
billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the | :21:37. | :21:41. | |
account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that | :21:42. | :21:46. | |
and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with | :21:47. | :21:49. | |
that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we | :21:50. | :21:53. | |
are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the | :21:54. | :21:57. | |
investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating. | :21:58. | :22:05. | |
The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in | :22:06. | :22:10. | |
A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in | :22:11. | :22:14. | |
hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save | :22:15. | :22:18. | |
the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the | :22:19. | :22:21. | |
Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your | :22:27. | :22:29. | |
reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi | :22:30. | :22:34. | |
Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger | :22:35. | :22:41. | |
of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree | :22:42. | :22:48. | |
with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a | :22:49. | :22:54. | |
result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just | :22:55. | :22:57. | |
going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of | :22:58. | :23:02. | |
these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see | :23:03. | :23:06. | |
if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they | :23:07. | :23:10. | |
have the support of local authorities because they now have a | :23:11. | :23:13. | |
role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the | :23:14. | :23:17. | |
right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area. | :23:18. | :23:21. | |
We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they | :23:22. | :23:25. | |
don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving, | :23:26. | :23:30. | |
you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with | :23:31. | :23:35. | |
finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are | :23:36. | :23:40. | |
cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like | :23:41. | :23:47. | |
5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector | :23:48. | :23:50. | |
in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long | :23:51. | :23:55. | |
term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very | :23:56. | :24:00. | |
sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the | :24:01. | :24:03. | |
sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan, | :24:04. | :24:09. | |
which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy | :24:10. | :24:14. | |
nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of | :24:15. | :24:20. | |
the other countries, European countries included, we need to put | :24:21. | :24:25. | |
up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the | :24:26. | :24:30. | |
Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me | :24:31. | :24:36. | |
down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up | :24:37. | :24:41. | |
with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European | :24:42. | :24:44. | |
average, the way these things are measured have changed since then, | :24:45. | :24:48. | |
but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need | :24:49. | :24:54. | |
substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was | :24:55. | :24:57. | |
extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the | :24:58. | :25:01. | |
Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election, | :25:02. | :25:06. | |
whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to | :25:07. | :25:11. | |
us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you. | :25:12. | :25:13. | |
Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations | :25:14. | :25:15. | |
before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait | :25:16. | :25:18. | |
for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote | :25:19. | :25:20. | |
If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats | :25:21. | :25:24. | |
and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU | :25:25. | :25:26. | |
referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before | :25:27. | :25:29. | |
And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested | :25:30. | :25:32. | |
that the referendum result could be reversed. | :25:33. | :25:35. | |
In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday, | :25:36. | :25:38. | |
Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that, | :25:39. | :25:42. | |
having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis | :25:43. | :25:44. | |
John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting | :25:45. | :25:50. | |
of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit | :25:51. | :25:53. | |
were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority". | :25:54. | :25:55. | |
He also said there is a "perfectly credible case" | :25:56. | :25:57. | |
That prompted the former Conservative leader | :25:58. | :26:01. | |
Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major. | :26:02. | :26:04. | |
He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply | :26:05. | :26:07. | |
because they disagree with the original result does | :26:08. | :26:09. | |
seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy." | :26:10. | :26:14. | |
So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms | :26:15. | :26:17. | |
of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure? | :26:18. | :26:22. | |
Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect | :26:23. | :26:25. | |
the will of the people and that means they must have their say | :26:26. | :26:29. | |
in a referendum on the terms of the deal." | :26:30. | :26:32. | |
But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support | :26:33. | :26:35. | |
One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith. | :26:36. | :26:41. | |
He backs the idea of a second referendum. | :26:42. | :26:44. | |
But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that, | :26:45. | :26:47. | |
"Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting | :26:48. | :26:50. | |
To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum | :26:51. | :26:58. | |
on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two | :26:59. | :27:01. | |
In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown, | :27:02. | :27:04. | |
and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister | :27:05. | :27:06. | |
Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have | :27:07. | :27:18. | |
spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or | :27:19. | :27:24. | |
you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the | :27:25. | :27:31. | |
referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I | :27:32. | :27:34. | |
said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we | :27:35. | :27:39. | |
will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but | :27:40. | :27:45. | |
we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the | :27:46. | :27:52. | |
British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would | :27:53. | :27:59. | |
then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's | :28:00. | :28:03. | |
lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit, | :28:04. | :28:07. | |
you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on | :28:08. | :28:12. | |
immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many | :28:13. | :28:20. | |
fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be | :28:21. | :28:26. | |
a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many | :28:27. | :28:30. | |
occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different | :28:31. | :28:35. | |
thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be | :28:36. | :28:39. | |
true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the | :28:40. | :28:42. | |
destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about | :28:43. | :28:48. | |
the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be | :28:49. | :28:52. | |
appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft | :28:53. | :28:56. | |
Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more | :28:57. | :29:01. | |
difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign | :29:02. | :29:07. | |
but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on | :29:08. | :29:11. | |
the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on | :29:12. | :29:15. | |
what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and | :29:16. | :29:18. | |
putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous | :29:19. | :29:26. | |
idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an | :29:27. | :29:30. | |
impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make | :29:31. | :29:35. | |
sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard | :29:36. | :29:40. | |
Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum | :29:41. | :29:44. | |
campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means | :29:45. | :29:50. | |
making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected | :29:51. | :29:53. | |
politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting | :29:54. | :29:57. | |
control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was | :29:58. | :30:01. | |
clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million | :30:02. | :30:07. | |
votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more | :30:08. | :30:12. | |
than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14 | :30:13. | :30:17. | |
million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very | :30:18. | :30:21. | |
clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we | :30:22. | :30:26. | |
going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to | :30:27. | :30:29. | |
trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better | :30:30. | :30:32. | |
place. OK, I need to get a debate going. | :30:33. | :30:42. | |
Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was | :30:43. | :30:46. | |
going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a | :30:47. | :30:48. | |
second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the | :30:49. | :30:50. | |
worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a | :30:51. | :30:55. | |
ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could | :30:56. | :31:00. | |
go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the | :31:01. | :31:02. | |
European Union is less important than the opinion of the British | :31:03. | :31:06. | |
people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me | :31:07. | :31:11. | |
precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain | :31:12. | :31:17. | |
voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson | :31:18. | :31:20. | |
and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the | :31:21. | :31:25. | |
range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge. | :31:26. | :31:29. | |
There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate, | :31:30. | :31:32. | |
getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying, | :31:33. | :31:38. | |
this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple. | :31:39. | :31:45. | |
The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our | :31:46. | :31:52. | |
laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of | :31:53. | :31:55. | |
what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would | :31:56. | :32:02. | |
be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the | :32:03. | :32:07. | |
hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The | :32:08. | :32:11. | |
biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British | :32:12. | :32:18. | |
history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally | :32:19. | :32:22. | |
proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a | :32:23. | :32:27. | |
strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks | :32:28. | :32:33. | |
like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015. | :32:34. | :32:44. | |
He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct | :32:45. | :32:52. | |
possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a | :32:53. | :32:57. | |
second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on | :32:58. | :33:00. | |
ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British | :33:01. | :33:04. | |
people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and | :33:05. | :33:11. | |
keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to | :33:12. | :33:20. | |
that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying | :33:21. | :33:23. | |
attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have | :33:24. | :33:34. | |
to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said | :33:35. | :33:37. | |
that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us, | :33:38. | :33:44. | |
they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European | :33:45. | :33:48. | |
Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the | :33:49. | :33:53. | |
process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why | :33:54. | :34:05. | |
Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to | :34:06. | :34:09. | |
ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote | :34:10. | :34:17. | |
by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it | :34:18. | :34:28. | |
best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would | :34:29. | :34:34. | |
have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because | :34:35. | :34:38. | |
I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context. | :34:39. | :34:46. | |
Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The | :34:47. | :34:52. | |
central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a | :34:53. | :34:57. | |
destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if | :34:58. | :35:02. | |
it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be | :35:03. | :35:07. | |
undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on | :35:08. | :35:10. | |
the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain | :35:11. | :35:14. | |
members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs | :35:15. | :35:21. | |
union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude | :35:22. | :35:25. | |
towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the | :35:26. | :35:28. | |
government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have | :35:29. | :35:32. | |
no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental | :35:33. | :35:37. | |
case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a | :35:38. | :35:44. | |
clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment | :35:45. | :35:52. | |
figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do | :35:53. | :35:54. | |
to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not | :35:55. | :36:01. | |
delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now, | :36:02. | :36:05. | |
wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people | :36:06. | :36:11. | |
who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it | :36:12. | :36:15. | |
will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the | :36:16. | :36:19. | |
whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is | :36:20. | :36:27. | |
very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the | :36:28. | :36:31. | |
answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and | :36:32. | :36:40. | |
French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it | :36:41. | :36:46. | |
not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it | :36:47. | :36:50. | |
would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I | :36:51. | :36:53. | |
think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't | :36:54. | :36:57. | |
been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in | :36:58. | :37:00. | |
Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome. | :37:01. | :37:04. | |
They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic | :37:05. | :37:09. | |
process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen | :37:10. | :37:12. | |
suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the | :37:13. | :37:20. | |
government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to | :37:21. | :37:24. | |
listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew, | :37:25. | :37:34. | |
as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second | :37:35. | :37:39. | |
referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it | :37:40. | :37:42. | |
there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have | :37:43. | :37:49. | |
eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember! | :37:50. | :37:52. | |
It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics. | :37:53. | :37:54. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :37:55. | :38:08. | |
Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales. | :38:09. | :38:10. | |
On today's programme: The British-Irish Council | :38:11. | :38:11. | |
met in Wales this week, but what really happens at these | :38:12. | :38:14. | |
And the Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies will be here live | :38:15. | :38:18. | |
to talk about a fairer future for Wales after, | :38:19. | :38:20. | |
yes, you've guessed it, Brexit. | :38:21. | :38:22. | |
But first, no-one likes a good root around the rule book more | :38:23. | :38:24. | |
This programme has learned the party in Wales is to consider | :38:25. | :38:31. | |
changing its leadership election rules to the system | :38:32. | :38:33. | |
which saw Jeremy Corbyn become UK party leader. | :38:34. | :38:36. | |
Any changes could have a major impact on which person eventually | :38:37. | :38:38. | |
Paul Martin has been reading between the lines for us... | :38:39. | :38:51. | |
Check the rule book, where would our political parties be without them? | :38:52. | :38:57. | |
For many Labour members, the rules are sacred. Written, revered and | :38:58. | :39:02. | |
amended down the ages by comrades of the past. Last year, Jeremy Corbyn | :39:03. | :39:07. | |
won the Labour leadership after a major change to the Labour rule | :39:08. | :39:12. | |
book. He got in under a symbol -- simple one member, one-vote system, | :39:13. | :39:16. | |
with registered supporters given a thought, too. Many saw the change is | :39:17. | :39:20. | |
a big factor his victory, but the rules for electing the leader of | :39:21. | :39:24. | |
Welsh Labour or not changed at the same time. The system here remains | :39:25. | :39:27. | |
what is known as an electoral college. The vote is weighted | :39:28. | :39:32. | |
equally between three sections. Elected members, that is AMs, MPs | :39:33. | :39:40. | |
and Welsh Labour's MEP, ordinary members and trade unions and other | :39:41. | :39:44. | |
affiliated groups. Welsh Labour now has the power to decide whether to | :39:45. | :39:50. | |
stick with this system or move to one member, one vote. The decision | :39:51. | :39:56. | |
will affect the future contest over who succeeds Carwyn Jones. The man | :39:57. | :39:59. | |
himself is not saying when he plans to stand down. I have no plans to | :40:00. | :40:05. | |
change in the near future. The gossip is that he may go sometime in | :40:06. | :40:11. | |
2019. The new rules would also apply to a potential deputy leader | :40:12. | :40:15. | |
contest. But there is a battle looming. Many on the left of the | :40:16. | :40:20. | |
party having seen Jeremy Corbyn when two victories under one member, one | :40:21. | :40:25. | |
vote, want the same system here. I fully support one member, one vote. | :40:26. | :40:29. | |
And they did as a fairer system. Every member has a vote that counts | :40:30. | :40:37. | |
the same. But others often described as more centrist or moderate think | :40:38. | :40:40. | |
the electoral college is the better option. We are a broad church. The | :40:41. | :40:45. | |
electoral college represents all wings of the party and, | :40:46. | :40:49. | |
fundamentally, ensures that whoever leads Welsh Labour has the support | :40:50. | :40:53. | |
of the Labour group in the National Assembly. A left-wing candidates | :40:54. | :40:57. | |
like Finance secretary Mark Drakeford could in theory benefit | :40:58. | :41:03. | |
from one member, one vote. Other potential candidates, like Health | :41:04. | :41:07. | |
Secretary Von Gavin, economy secretary Ken skates and some of the | :41:08. | :41:12. | |
new intake of Labour AMs are seen as more centrist. They may favour the | :41:13. | :41:16. | |
electoral college. One former adviser thinks advocates of either | :41:17. | :41:19. | |
system are being pragmatic rather than principled. What people are | :41:20. | :41:26. | |
saying now in terms of the time they vote -- where they will get more | :41:27. | :41:30. | |
votes for their particular candidate. We did have a discussion | :41:31. | :41:33. | |
about democracy but what it comes down to is what the direction of the | :41:34. | :41:38. | |
party and two you want to be the First Minister, when you think you | :41:39. | :41:42. | |
would get more votes. Given the recent blood-letting within the | :41:43. | :41:46. | |
party, I asked the man who will oversee the consultation if it is | :41:47. | :41:50. | |
going to become another big and divisive row. I'm sure some | :41:51. | :41:54. | |
individuals would like that to be the case, but as the chair of the | :41:55. | :41:59. | |
party and will be looking to try and unite both sides of that argument. | :42:00. | :42:03. | |
And to take it forward in the way that I have outlined. Quietly, | :42:04. | :42:11. | |
gently, thoroughly and methodically, so at the end of this we get a | :42:12. | :42:15. | |
process that everybody can say, I have had an opportunity to have my | :42:16. | :42:19. | |
say. Welsh Labour will start studying the views of members after | :42:20. | :42:23. | |
the spring conference, and the consultation will last one year. The | :42:24. | :42:27. | |
final say will either by the executive committee or a full vote | :42:28. | :42:33. | |
at the 20 18th conference. Welsh Labour is taking its time over | :42:34. | :42:36. | |
writing its own chapter in the rule book, but with potential | :42:37. | :42:40. | |
implications of the future direction of the party, it is going to be an | :42:41. | :42:42. | |
interesting read. Just a bumpy Brexit | :42:43. | :42:44. | |
and a few ring roads". The words of the First Minister | :42:45. | :42:53. | |
today, as has called for the UK Government to work more closely | :42:54. | :42:56. | |
with Wales over Brexit. Carwyn Jones' article was written | :42:57. | :42:58. | |
shortly after he hosted a meeting Now everyone's in favour | :42:59. | :43:00. | |
of more co-operations, but what actually happens at these | :43:01. | :43:03. | |
events and how much use are they? We sent Cemlyn Davies along | :43:04. | :43:06. | |
to have a good scout One after the other, the heavyweight | :43:07. | :43:33. | |
arrived. Ready to talk politics, but rugby, too, as Alan Kane to London | :43:34. | :43:35. | |
to Wales international Jamie Roberts ahead of the summit's kick-off. | :43:36. | :43:42. | |
Created as a result of the Good Friday agreement, the British - | :43:43. | :43:45. | |
Irish Council brings together eight different administrations. With the | :43:46. | :43:50. | |
aim of promoting good relations and co-operation. The focus of today's | :43:51. | :43:57. | |
discussion is Brexit. The meeting is just getting under way in there so | :43:58. | :44:00. | |
we have be asked to leave. We will get to speak to the leaders in a | :44:01. | :44:04. | |
couple of hours when they hold a press conference here. What's goes | :44:05. | :44:09. | |
on behind closed doors at these meetings? I have been speaking to | :44:10. | :44:13. | |
one former Welsh government adviser who has attended Harrow fair share | :44:14. | :44:18. | |
of British- Irish summits. In this shot, Joe Kiernan can been seen -- | :44:19. | :44:24. | |
can be seen sitting behind Nick Clegg and the Welsh First Minister, | :44:25. | :44:29. | |
Carwyn Jones. Allan there are opportunities and plenary sessions | :44:30. | :44:32. | |
for everyone to centrepiece, but really it is the meetings that | :44:33. | :44:35. | |
happened behind closed doors, maybe between Carwyn Jones and Nicola | :44:36. | :44:44. | |
Sturgeon, or the Northern Ireland First Minister and Deputy First | :44:45. | :44:46. | |
Minister. Both the discussions around the dinner where a few | :44:47. | :44:52. | |
glasses of wine are hands, or over breakfast, are as important if not | :44:53. | :44:56. | |
more important than the formal plenary sessions. It gives us a | :44:57. | :45:01. | |
framework for practical cooperation in areas where we can do more by | :45:02. | :45:05. | |
working together. The first meeting was held in London in December, | :45:06. | :45:11. | |
1999, when Tony Blair chaired the talks and Wales was represented by | :45:12. | :45:14. | |
the first secretary Matt Alun Michael. This is the 28th summits | :45:15. | :45:23. | |
and the individuals and personalities involved have changed | :45:24. | :45:28. | |
quite a bit of good years. The Low personalities are obviously very | :45:29. | :45:31. | |
different. When Alex Salmond was there, he took a more kind of desk | :45:32. | :45:36. | |
banging, I want to tell you what is going on, kind of attitude to it. If | :45:37. | :45:42. | |
Carwyn Jones was cross and about lack of economic stimulus with the | :45:43. | :45:47. | |
fact that we were not getting our fair share of money in terms of the | :45:48. | :45:51. | |
consequential, he would let them know in no uncertain terms. I could | :45:52. | :45:55. | |
do hotel at last, time for the politicians to face the press. From | :45:56. | :46:01. | |
our perspective, there are two issues that need to be emphasised. | :46:02. | :46:07. | |
The market access issue. From a constitutional perspective, we would | :46:08. | :46:13. | |
not well, in any way shape or form any reduction in the powers of the | :46:14. | :46:19. | |
people of Wales and they're elected assembly in government. One of the | :46:20. | :46:25. | |
key objectives is to get the best arrangements for UK business to | :46:26. | :46:30. | |
operate with and trade within the single markets of the European | :46:31. | :46:36. | |
Union. We also recognise the outcome of the EU referendum, are very clear | :46:37. | :46:41. | |
message was given in to migration. I didn't like the decision of the UK | :46:42. | :46:45. | |
electorate but I respected and we now have to deal with it. The best | :46:46. | :46:49. | |
outcome would be something as close to what we have at the moment. The | :46:50. | :46:53. | |
imposition of tariffs and border checks would be of enormous | :46:54. | :46:59. | |
inconvenience, time wasting delays, like of investment and costing jobs | :47:00. | :47:03. | |
at the end. We are getting to a position where we are hearing the | :47:04. | :47:07. | |
views, concerns and getting to a position where, by the time we | :47:08. | :47:10. | |
invoke Article 50, we can get the best deal for the whole of the UK. | :47:11. | :47:15. | |
Alun Cairns was one of four UK Government representatives at the | :47:16. | :47:18. | |
summit. The Prime Minister did not attend. How frustrated you do | :47:19. | :47:25. | |
Theresa May is not here? I think the prime ministers should come to the | :47:26. | :47:28. | |
British Irish Council meetings. I have long thought that. I have been | :47:29. | :47:32. | |
coming to these meetings are quite some time, even before I was First | :47:33. | :47:36. | |
Minister. I might be wrong here but I don't think you COBRA minister has | :47:37. | :47:39. | |
been to any of the meetings that I have to. The Taoiseach, but Enda | :47:40. | :47:44. | |
Kenny and his predecessors, have always come to the Council meetings. | :47:45. | :47:49. | |
Generally I think the UK prime ministers should attend, but | :47:50. | :47:53. | |
particularly now when the issues impacting on all of us are so | :47:54. | :47:56. | |
serious. I think it would be a good idea if the Prime Minister could | :47:57. | :48:02. | |
come to the next one. It has been suggested she doesn't take this | :48:03. | :48:05. | |
forum seriously. I won't fade out by typing she would send an important | :48:06. | :48:09. | |
signal that she does take it seriously. Why is the Prime Minister | :48:10. | :48:16. | |
not here? I think this is a forum which, traditionally, territorial | :48:17. | :48:20. | |
departments have taken the lead. It was right that the Welsh Secretary | :48:21. | :48:22. | |
of the Northern Ireland Secretary, because of the relationship of this | :48:23. | :48:25. | |
organisation to the Belfast agreement, play their role. The | :48:26. | :48:29. | |
Prime Minister has meant personally with the Taoiseach and each of the | :48:30. | :48:32. | |
leaders of the devolved administrations. This room is pretty | :48:33. | :48:38. | |
much deserted now. That is apart from a few conscientious reporters, | :48:39. | :48:43. | |
still working hard. We have had a press conference, than the | :48:44. | :48:45. | |
interviews and the packing up is well under way. Shortly afterwards, | :48:46. | :48:52. | |
it was time to say goodbye, until they meet again at the next summit | :48:53. | :48:55. | |
in Northern Ireland. That is in June. | :48:56. | :48:58. | |
Remember the big red bus and its promise of ?350 | :48:59. | :49:00. | |
million extra a week for the NHS after Brexit? | :49:01. | :49:02. | |
This week the Chancellor said far from freeing up | :49:03. | :49:04. | |
funds, Brexit would cost the country billions instead. | :49:05. | :49:06. | |
This morning the Welsh Conservatives have said they want to see a fairer | :49:07. | :49:09. | |
way of distributing structural funds after we leave. | :49:10. | :49:11. | |
Well, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, | :49:12. | :49:13. | |
and a leading Brexiteer, of course, Andrew RT Davies | :49:14. | :49:15. | |
Good morning. We can start by looking at your plans, your | :49:16. | :49:32. | |
proposals, this morning. It is to do with the grant aid, hundreds of | :49:33. | :49:36. | |
millions, billions of pounds which came to West Wales and the valleys | :49:37. | :49:41. | |
and other parts of Wales. What you want to see change? We don't know | :49:42. | :49:44. | |
how much money will be coming but how would you like to see it used? | :49:45. | :49:48. | |
These are the things we should be looking at in the assembly, as | :49:49. | :49:53. | |
political parties. I can fully understand why people are fixated on | :49:54. | :49:57. | |
Brexit, Article 50, but when the wishes of the British people are | :49:58. | :50:01. | |
enacted and we leave the EU, there will be a new landscape for | :50:02. | :50:05. | |
delivering social cohesion funding, regeneration, agriculture. We need | :50:06. | :50:09. | |
to be focusing on how we are going to do that. It is a very tight | :50:10. | :50:14. | |
timetable. We don't believe it should be just narrow geographical | :50:15. | :50:17. | |
limitations on the way the money is spent, which is how it has been done | :50:18. | :50:22. | |
up until now. You had areas of Wales that were identified on a map that | :50:23. | :50:26. | |
said, you get this amount of money to regenerate yourselves and | :50:27. | :50:28. | |
increase economic performance. That failed miserably. Areas like Barry | :50:29. | :50:33. | |
have been excluded from that. Areas of mid-wells had been excluded. But | :50:34. | :50:39. | |
that is not true. It is true! I have the figures. Between 2014 2020, two | :50:40. | :50:48. | |
.4 euros billion are due to come to Wales. 2 billion went to West Wales | :50:49. | :50:52. | |
and the valleys, 400 million went to East Wales which included Barry, | :50:53. | :50:58. | |
Wrexham, Vale of Glamorgan. In Barry, 100,000 on Barry town Hall, | :50:59. | :51:05. | |
one point million on the hub. Barry was getting a fair share of that | :51:06. | :51:09. | |
money for the needs of Barry. What was wrong there? It wasn't because | :51:10. | :51:13. | |
of you look at Barry and some of the words in Barry, I have social | :51:14. | :51:17. | |
deprivation indices as high as any in the valleys. If you look at some | :51:18. | :51:21. | |
areas in mid Wales, where you have deep pockets of rural deprivation, | :51:22. | :51:26. | |
and have had very little luck assistance. Some money has gone in | :51:27. | :51:30. | |
and structural funds, but when we look at the performance they have | :51:31. | :51:36. | |
not done what they were supposed to do. I think what we need to be | :51:37. | :51:40. | |
looking at is getting greater community involvement in these | :51:41. | :51:44. | |
projects. I was chairman of creative rural communities which is a | :51:45. | :51:48. | |
regeneration partnership set up in the Vale of Glamorgan, with limited | :51:49. | :51:54. | |
funds, that was community land. People don't want these great big | :51:55. | :51:57. | |
government structures dictating how they spend the money or regenerate | :51:58. | :52:01. | |
their communities. They have got the ideas. Let's unlock the ideas by | :52:02. | :52:06. | |
working with them. You want to see more areas, more projects, sharing | :52:07. | :52:11. | |
however much money will come down from the UK Government in future? | :52:12. | :52:15. | |
Maybe one of the problems with that is that weakness, according to be a | :52:16. | :52:20. | |
valuations of the objectives, were this sprinkling of money everywhere | :52:21. | :52:25. | |
rather than focusing on fewer, larger projects. You seem to be | :52:26. | :52:29. | |
suggesting going to gut wriggling of money everywhere which might not | :52:30. | :52:34. | |
lead to any improvements. We are saying that we need to have that | :52:35. | :52:36. | |
conversation and start this thinking. We want to see more | :52:37. | :52:41. | |
community led projects that actually take their leadership from the | :52:42. | :52:44. | |
community rather than a top-down approach which is what most | :52:45. | :52:51. | |
governments have done since 1999. By identifying their own pet projects | :52:52. | :52:54. | |
which have redundantly failed because we haven't seen the | :52:55. | :52:57. | |
performance in economic and Richmond in areas where the money has gone, | :52:58. | :53:02. | |
such as the valleys, West Wales. And exclusion of vast areas of Wales to | :53:03. | :53:04. | |
the detriment of the economic performance of those areas. I get | :53:05. | :53:10. | |
the point that people are fixated on Article 50 and also on the | :53:11. | :53:16. | |
negotiations. The point I'm making is that that is the big picture | :53:17. | :53:20. | |
stuff, but our perspective, we have to be looking at what we want in | :53:21. | :53:24. | |
Wales after we come out of the EU. That conversation has been pushed | :53:25. | :53:30. | |
out because of the big picture of Article 50 and the Brexit | :53:31. | :53:34. | |
negotiations. I am trying to stick on to the grant aid that we are | :53:35. | :53:37. | |
discussing before you started imagine Article 50. We talk about | :53:38. | :53:42. | |
pet projects from the Welsh government which have failed. The | :53:43. | :53:45. | |
areas of these 12 that haven't prospered. Areas like Cardiff | :53:46. | :53:49. | |
Wrexham, they have prospered over the last few years. It's not like | :53:50. | :53:53. | |
those areas are struggling desperately. The money from | :53:54. | :53:58. | |
objective one was areas like the valleys, West Wales, really | :53:59. | :54:02. | |
struggling. Perhaps the failure is there, if they have not increased | :54:03. | :54:10. | |
the GDP, the economy there, he doesn't seem that you are offering | :54:11. | :54:14. | |
any answers. Other than, let's have all the communities involved in | :54:15. | :54:19. | |
certain projects. There are plenty of examples you can take that show | :54:20. | :54:23. | |
that with community led projects, working with businesses in | :54:24. | :54:27. | |
particular, rather than the public sector lead, you can achieve better | :54:28. | :54:31. | |
results. The city Deal concept is a great way of looking assets, putting | :54:32. | :54:34. | |
public private sector development together. Public money and private | :54:35. | :54:39. | |
money put together to unleash greater potential. What we haven't | :54:40. | :54:44. | |
done in Wales since 1999 is embraced the private sector, work with them | :54:45. | :54:48. | |
as partners in those communities. They have said no, the public sector | :54:49. | :54:53. | |
are the only ones who have the answers. They don't. You need a | :54:54. | :54:57. | |
partnership approach. You also need to be looking at areas of mid-Wales | :54:58. | :55:02. | |
and the South as well, Harry, which have not developed as they should | :55:03. | :55:04. | |
because they have been excluded from much of the generation. You won't | :55:05. | :55:11. | |
like this next bit because I want to talk about Article 50 and the | :55:12. | :55:17. | |
process of exiting the EU. It is undoubtedly very important. One of | :55:18. | :55:20. | |
the things we have heard over the last few days, Mark Drakeford, | :55:21. | :55:33. | |
Carwyn Jones's right-hand man, he was saying that when it comes to | :55:34. | :55:38. | |
negotiations, they want to be fully involves on outlining the UK's | :55:39. | :55:41. | |
negotiation positions. They also want to be in the room, part of | :55:42. | :55:45. | |
those negotiations, when they involve devolved areas. Is that | :55:46. | :55:56. | |
something you agree with? Environment, agriculture, fisheries. | :55:57. | :56:03. | |
What is the Prime Minister's clamoured the moment? She has | :56:04. | :56:06. | |
identified that she wants to work with the devolved administrations do | :56:07. | :56:09. | |
make sure they're having their input into the UK position when | :56:10. | :56:12. | |
negotiating the exit from the European Union. The UK Government | :56:13. | :56:17. | |
have the point on this. That is that they're the ones who will leave the | :56:18. | :56:21. | |
crochet since. That is clearly understood. The prime ministers that | :56:22. | :56:26. | |
they structure where, periodically, overtime, the governments of | :56:27. | :56:29. | |
Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, will come together with the UK | :56:30. | :56:34. | |
Government, or come areas of mutual interest, but ultimately it is the | :56:35. | :56:37. | |
UK Government which is on points. The UK Government... You are | :56:38. | :56:47. | |
outlining the situation as it is. Mark Drakeford would like to see | :56:48. | :56:53. | |
more involvement from the Welsh government on devolved areas, and | :56:54. | :56:57. | |
considers their responsibility, not the UK Government's responsibility. | :56:58. | :57:01. | |
It is a devolved area. Shouldn't they be in the room? I would quietly | :57:02. | :57:08. | |
and firmly say to Mark Drakeford, deal with the areas you have | :57:09. | :57:13. | |
responsibility over. That is what they want. Use the it is to shape | :57:14. | :57:19. | |
policy that are to you. There was it is many because the prime ministers | :57:20. | :57:23. | |
set up the structures for Mark Drakeford -- Mark Drakeford and | :57:24. | :57:25. | |
Carwyn Jones to negotiate on behalf of wealth. On one side, you have | :57:26. | :57:33. | |
Labour Cabinet secretaries and the First Minister as saying they wanted | :57:34. | :57:37. | |
me in the room, taken notice of. They are being taken notice of. When | :57:38. | :57:40. | |
I offered to work with Carwyn Jones to make sure Wales got the best | :57:41. | :57:43. | |
possible deal but they could out of all these negotiations, he flatly | :57:44. | :57:47. | |
rejected the offer of help at the hand of friendship. There are two | :57:48. | :57:52. | |
faces to Carwyn Jones and Welsh Labour on this. They believe they | :57:53. | :57:56. | |
are the only ones who should represent Wales, when his own | :57:57. | :57:59. | |
constituency and many others are voted out. If he had a more | :58:00. | :58:02. | |
inclusive approach, politically, he can achieve for more. One of the | :58:03. | :58:07. | |
issues raised in a conference in Swansea on Friday about Brexit was | :58:08. | :58:13. | |
looking at the Autumn Statement, and Philip Hammond setting out quite a | :58:14. | :58:16. | |
gloomy picture in terms of increasing borrowing, job losses | :58:17. | :58:23. | |
because of Brexit, a ?60 million black hole in the economy. A | :58:24. | :58:27. | |
question was put to Mark Reckless. If that turns out to be true, if | :58:28. | :58:32. | |
Brexit turns out to be economically disastrous, would you change of | :58:33. | :58:35. | |
mind? He seemed to suggest that he didn't think it would happen but if | :58:36. | :58:38. | |
it did he would change his mind. Would you? It is a hypothetical but | :58:39. | :58:49. | |
indulge me. He was responding to the budget office and he has responded | :58:50. | :58:52. | |
that officially because that is in law and he have to make an | :58:53. | :58:55. | |
observation of the predictions that they have made. Let's look at the | :58:56. | :59:00. | |
actual figures that came out last week. The real figures that show the | :59:01. | :59:06. | |
real economy performing well, creating quality jobs, record | :59:07. | :59:09. | |
investment by businesses, more than all the experts predicted. We have | :59:10. | :59:14. | |
not had the recession but everyone predicted when we have a referendum | :59:15. | :59:19. | |
campaign. If people carry on talking about it, I am sure with the | :59:20. | :59:22. | |
economic cycle we will get to the point that some of the remainder is | :59:23. | :59:26. | |
want us to be in. That shaped the economy to be one that continues to | :59:27. | :59:31. | |
create prosperity, jobs and opportunity. Those opportunities | :59:32. | :59:37. | |
taking us forward in the Brexit negotiations can be achieved and can | :59:38. | :59:43. | |
be... The UK Government can want to have its own way on the negotiations | :59:44. | :59:47. | |
but it is a two-way street. The EU will have their own views. Looking | :59:48. | :59:58. | |
ahead, and the ISS, a well-respected economic forecaster, DOB yard, the | :59:59. | :00:03. | |
official forecasters, and Philip Hammond, all suggesting there could | :00:04. | :00:10. | |
be a very bumpy road ahead. I recall those people predicting the same | :00:11. | :00:19. | |
thing in the referendum. Of course there will be bumped on the road, | :00:20. | :00:23. | |
that is the normal economic cycle. We have the Italian referendum next | :00:24. | :00:26. | |
week which could potentially put out the Italian government. We have to | :00:27. | :00:30. | |
grasp the opportunities and the real economy is powering ahead with | :00:31. | :00:35. | |
record investment, job creation and confidence in people's ability to | :00:36. | :00:39. | |
get on in life. We want a shape that through negotiations and we will. | :00:40. | :00:45. | |
Thank you much. I'm sure we will return to this subject. | :00:46. | :00:46. | |
Don't forget were @walespolitics on Twitter, but for now, | :00:47. | :00:50. | |
diolch am wylio - time to go back to Andrew. | :00:51. | :00:58. | |
have got to make sure London is open. Thank you. Andrew, back to | :00:59. | :01:01. | |
you. Is Theresa May serious | :01:02. | :01:07. | |
about curbing executive pay? Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's | :01:08. | :01:09. | |
successor as Ukip leader? And can the Lib Dems pull off | :01:10. | :01:13. | |
a by-election upset in Richmond? So,,, on pay talk about the | :01:14. | :01:41. | |
executive of what executives get compared to the average worker in | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
the company, giving shareholders real power to vote down pay rises if | :01:45. | :01:48. | |
they don't like them, which is pretty much what Ed Miliband | :01:49. | :01:51. | |
proposed in the general election in 2015. Is she serious about this? She | :01:52. | :02:01. | |
is very serious, and the Tory party probably does owe Ed Miliband an | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
apology for trashing his ideas and 2015 and then putting them all up | :02:05. | :02:08. | |
for votes in November 20 16. She is very serious, and this all comes | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
back to her desperate fear that unless capitalism reforms itself and | :02:13. | :02:15. | |
becomes more acceptable to the just about managing or even 78% of the | :02:16. | :02:22. | |
country who are not earning vast wealth at anywhere near the figures | :02:23. | :02:25. | |
you see in the City, serious things will happen and the political sense | :02:26. | :02:31. | |
of trust will implode. She has already been bartered down by her | :02:32. | :02:35. | |
own Cabinet on this. She wanted to go further and make workers on the | :02:36. | :02:37. | |
board mandatory. They have managed to stop that. What will her fallback | :02:38. | :02:45. | |
position be on workers on the board if she is not able to get it into | :02:46. | :02:53. | |
some claw? We would like to have workers on the board, but whatever | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
they do on the board there will have no voting powers on the board. When | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
you look at what was leaked out over the weekend, that we should know the | :03:02. | :03:05. | |
ratio of the top to the average and that shareholders who own the | :03:06. | :03:11. | |
company should determine, in the end, the highest-paid salaries, you | :03:12. | :03:17. | |
kind of think, what could the possible objection be to any of | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
that? Two things. One, I agree with Tom that she is deadly serious about | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
this agenda and it comes under the banner, that sentence in the party | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
conference speech about "It's time to focus on the good that government | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
can do". She is by instinct more of an interventionist than Cameron and | :03:38. | :03:41. | |
Osborne. But she is incredibly cautious, whether it is through the | :03:42. | :03:44. | |
internal constraints of opposition within Cabinet, or her own small C | :03:45. | :03:51. | |
Conservative caution in implementing this stuff. Part of the problem is | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
the practicalities. George Osborne commission will Hutton to do a | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
report which came out with similar proposals, which were never | :04:00. | :04:03. | |
implemented. It is quite hard to enforce. It will antagonise business | :04:04. | :04:09. | |
leaders when she's to woo them again in this Brexit furore. So there are | :04:10. | :04:13. | |
problems with it. And judging by what has happened so far, my guess | :04:14. | :04:18. | |
is that the aim will be genuinely bold and interesting, and the | :04:19. | :04:21. | |
implementation incredibly cautious. Does it matter if she annoys some | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
business leaders? Isn't that part of her brand? Will there be problems on | :04:27. | :04:32. | |
the Tory backbenches with it? I think there will be and I think it | :04:33. | :04:35. | |
does matter at this sensitive time for when we are positioning | :04:36. | :04:37. | |
ourselves as a country and whether we are going to brand ourselves as a | :04:38. | :04:43. | |
great city of business, implementing quite interventionist policies. Any | :04:44. | :04:46. | |
suggestion that the government can control how much the top earners | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
get, I think would be received in a hostile way. What would be wrong | :04:52. | :04:55. | |
with the shareholders, who own the company, determining the pay of the | :04:56. | :05:00. | |
higher hands, the executives? Morally, you can absolutely make | :05:01. | :05:02. | |
that argument but to business leaders, they will not like it. | :05:03. | :05:08. | |
Ultimately, this will not come down to more than a row of beans. There | :05:09. | :05:11. | |
was a huge debate about whether there should be quotas of women on | :05:12. | :05:14. | |
boards. In the end, that never happened. All we get is figures. But | :05:15. | :05:20. | |
quotas of women, for which there is a case and a case against too, that | :05:21. | :05:27. | |
was a government mandate. This is not, this is simply empowering | :05:28. | :05:29. | |
shareholders who own the company to determine the pay of the people they | :05:30. | :05:37. | |
hire. There is a strong moral argument for it. Strong economic | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
argument. But the Tory backbenchers will not like this. The downside is | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
that this is a world where companies are thinking about upping sticks to | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
Europe. No, they say they are thinking of that. Not one has done | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
it yet. Others have made massive investments in this country. But is | :05:57. | :06:01. | |
it not an incentive for those making these threats to actually do it? In | :06:02. | :06:08. | |
Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated by Brussels. It is a vivid way of | :06:09. | :06:13. | |
showing you are addressing the issue of inequality. I think she will go | :06:14. | :06:22. | |
with it, but let's move on to Ukip. I think we will get the result | :06:23. | :06:27. | |
tomorrow. There are the top three candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne | :06:28. | :06:34. | |
Evans and on my right, John Reid Evans. One of them will be the next | :06:35. | :06:38. | |
leader. Who is going to win? It is widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall | :06:39. | :06:43. | |
and is probably the outcome that the Labour Party fears most. Paul | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
Nuttall is a very effective communicator. He is not a household | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
name, far from it, but people will begin to learn more about him and | :06:52. | :06:57. | |
find that he is actually quite a strong leader. Can people Ukip | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
together again after this shambolic period since the referendum? If | :07:03. | :07:10. | |
anyone can, he can. And his brand of working collar, Northern Ukip is the | :07:11. | :07:14. | |
thing that will work for them. Do you think he is the favourite? It | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
would be amazing if he doesn't win. His greatest problem will be getting | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
Nigel Farage off his back. He is going on a speaking tour of North | :07:25. | :07:31. | |
America. A long speaking tour. Ukip won this EU referendum. They had the | :07:32. | :07:34. | |
chance to hoover up these discontented Labour voters in the | :07:35. | :07:39. | |
north, and all he has done is associated with Ukip with Farage. | :07:40. | :07:43. | |
But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip and will be glad to be hands of it. | :07:44. | :07:49. | |
The bigger problem is money. If it is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know | :07:50. | :07:55. | |
the results yet, but he is the favourite, if it is him, I would | :07:56. | :07:58. | |
suggest that that is the result Labour is frightened of most. To be | :07:59. | :08:02. | |
honest, I think they are frightened of Ukip whatever the result. | :08:03. | :08:06. | |
Possibly with good cause. The reason I qualify that is that what you call | :08:07. | :08:13. | |
a shambles over the summer has been something that goes beyond Monty | :08:14. | :08:16. | |
Python in its absurdity and madness. That calls into question whether it | :08:17. | :08:22. | |
can function as a political party when you have what has gone on. The | :08:23. | :08:27. | |
number of leaders itself has been an act of madness. In a context which | :08:28. | :08:34. | |
should be fantastic for them. They have won a referendum. There is a | :08:35. | :08:38. | |
debate about what form Brexit should take, it is a dream for them, and | :08:39. | :08:42. | |
they have gone bonkers. If he can turn it around, I agree that he is a | :08:43. | :08:46. | |
powerful media communicator, and then it is a threat to Labour. But | :08:47. | :08:50. | |
he has got to show that first. Indeed. The by-election in Richmond | :08:51. | :08:55. | |
in south-west London, called by Zac Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it | :08:56. | :09:00. | |
turned out to be a by-election about Heathrow, or has it turned into a | :09:01. | :09:04. | |
by-election, which is what the Lib Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will | :09:05. | :09:10. | |
know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems win, they will turn it into an EU | :09:11. | :09:13. | |
referendum. It seems incredibly close now. The Lib Dems are swamping | :09:14. | :09:19. | |
Richmond. They had 1000 activists there yesterday. That is getting on | :09:20. | :09:22. | |
for 100th of the population of the place! If the Lib Dems don't manage | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
to win on Thursday and don't manage to turn it into an EU referendum | :09:28. | :09:30. | |
despite all their efforts, it will probably be a disaster for the | :09:31. | :09:38. | |
party. What do you hear, Isabel? I hear that the Lib Dems have | :09:39. | :09:43. | |
absolutely swamped the constituency, but this may backfire. I saw a bit | :09:44. | :09:47. | |
of this myself, living in Witney, when the Lib Dems also swamped and | :09:48. | :09:52. | |
people began to get fed up of their aggressive tactics. I understand | :09:53. | :09:58. | |
that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously optimistic that he will pull this | :09:59. | :10:04. | |
one off. Quick stab at the result? I don't know. But we are entering a | :10:05. | :10:12. | |
period when by-elections are acquiring significant again. If the | :10:13. | :10:16. | |
Lib Dems were to make a game, it would breathe life into that near | :10:17. | :10:22. | |
moribund party like nothing else. Similarly, other by-elections in | :10:23. | :10:25. | |
this shapeless political world we are in are going to become | :10:26. | :10:30. | |
significant. We don't know if we are covering it live on Thursday night | :10:31. | :10:33. | |
yet because we have to find at the time they are going to declare. | :10:34. | :10:39. | |
Richmond are quite late in declaring, but if it is in the early | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
hours, that is fine. If it is on breakfast television, they be not. I | :10:44. | :10:48. | |
want to show you this. Michael Gove was on the Andrew Marr Show this | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
morning. In the now notorious comment that I made, I was actually | :10:54. | :10:57. | |
cut off in midstream, as politicians often. The point I made was not that | :10:58. | :10:59. | |
all experts are that is nonsense. Expert engineers, doctors and | :11:00. | :11:10. | |
physicists are not wrong. But there is a subclass of experts, | :11:11. | :11:13. | |
particularly social scientists, who have to reflect on some of the | :11:14. | :11:17. | |
mistakes they have made. And the recession, which was predicted that | :11:18. | :11:21. | |
we would have if we voted to leave, has gone like a puff of smoke. So | :11:22. | :11:28. | |
economic experts, he talks about. The Chancellor has based all of his | :11:29. | :11:31. | |
forward predictions in this Autumn Statement on the economic expert | :11:32. | :11:38. | |
forecasters. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it is 50-50, | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
which is the toss of a coin. But what was he supposed to do? You | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
would ideally have to have a Budget that had several sets of scenarios, | :11:49. | :11:53. | |
and that is impossible. Crystal ball territory. But you do wonder if | :11:54. | :12:01. | |
governments are right to do so much of their fiscal projections on the | :12:02. | :12:04. | |
basis of forecasts which turn out to be wrong. They have nothing else to | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
go on. The Treasury forecast is to be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast | :12:10. | :12:15. | |
will prove not to be exact. As you say, they admitted that they are | :12:16. | :12:17. | |
navigating through fog at the moment. But he also added that it | :12:18. | :12:23. | |
was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, even if you accept that these | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
forecasts might be wrong, is causing such a level of uncertainty. He put | :12:28. | :12:34. | |
the figure at 60 billion. That could come to haunt him. He hasn't got a | :12:35. | :12:44. | |
clue. He admitted it. He said, Parliament mandates me to come up | :12:45. | :12:47. | |
with something, so I am going to give you a number. But I wouldn't | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
trust it if I were you, he basically said. I agree with you. The man who | :12:52. | :12:56. | |
borrowed 122 billion more off the back of a coin toss was Philip | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
Hammond. It begs the question, what does that say about the confidence | :13:01. | :13:04. | |
Philip Hammond has in his own government's renegotiation? Not a | :13:05. | :13:10. | |
huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond quoted the OBR figures. He basically | :13:11. | :13:14. | |
said, this is uncertain and it looks bad, and on we go with it. It is a | :13:15. | :13:20. | |
very interesting situation, he said. He was for Remain and he works in a | :13:21. | :13:25. | |
department which regards it as a disaster, whatever everyone else | :13:26. | :13:30. | |
thinks. I have just been told we are covering the by-election. We are | :13:31. | :13:33. | |
part of the constitution. Jo Coburn will have more | :13:34. | :13:35. | |
Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here on BBC One | :13:36. | :13:37. | |
next Sunday at 11. Remember - if it's Sunday, | :13:38. | :13:41. | |
it's the Sunday Politics. | :13:42. | :13:52. |