12/02/2017 Sunday Politics Wales

Commons Speaker John Bercow is accused of compromising his

impartiality by revealing he voted Remain in last year's EU referendum.

The EU Withdrawal Bill clears its first Parliamentary hurdle.

But will the House of Lords be quite so accommodating?

Labour's Leader in the Lords joins us live.

And we report from Stoke-on-Trent ahead of a crucial by-election

Later in the programme: Ukip is looking to give

Neil Kinnock tells us where Jeremy Corbyn's

gone wrong over Brexit, and the numbers are rising,

so is there a problem with how Welsh Government

And with me a political panel who frequently like to compromise

Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Janan Ganesh.

I'll be trying to keep them in order during the course of the programme.

So, Commons Speaker John Bercow has insisted his ability

to act impartially is not damaged by reports that he voted to Remain

The Sunday Telegraph reveals that Speaker Bercow revealed his views

in front of an audience of students at Reading University

This may not be popular with some people in this audience -

I thought it was better to stay in the European Union than not,

partly for economic reason, being part of a big trade bloc,

and partly because I think we're in a world of power blocs,

and I think for all the weaknesses and deficiencies

of the European Union, it is better to be part of that big

Speaker Bercow speaking at Reading University earlier this month. Does

he not care is this I get that impression, he knows perfectly well,

it states he has to be particularly -- Parliamentary neural. Whether

there are going to be enough votes to force him out, the question, the

last speaker wept out with the 20 vote against him. You yes to have

the command of the support across the House. There is a Deputy

Speaker, waiting, who would be superb. I think even the people who

pretend to support Macis have had enough -- Speaker Bercow have had

enough of his ways. The reason I ask whether he care, he didn't just tell

the students that he voted to Remain, he then gave them a running

commentary on all the issues that will be part of the Brexit

negotiations, workers' rights, immigration, trade policy, everyone

maternity leave got a hat tip from him. He would be a very well

prepared Brexit minister if attendance needs a colleague --

David Davis needs a colleague. I don't think this story makes his

position untenable, what does is the wired pattern of behaviour of

excessive candour on his political views, going back years, this is a

guy who when the Queen visited Parliament described her as theical

lied scope Queen. He had a running argument with David Cameron. We know

his views on Brexit, we know his views on Donald Trump. . He has

given interviews, none of the views are illegitimate but the candour

which they are expressed with is scrupulous. Given Lyndsay Hoyle is a

class accuse. He is the Deputy Speaker. And a fairly ready

replacement, whether there is more of a movement to say, maybe not

force Bercow out but acknowledge he has had a few years in the job and

the question of successor ship comes into play. Has he concluded he is

untouchable? What I can definitely say, is that he is determined to

fight this one out, and not go of his own volition, so if he goes he

will have to be forced out. He wants to stay. Which will be tough. It

will be tough. Likely as things stand. I would say this, I speak to

someone who likes the way he has brought the House of Commons to

life, held ministers to account, forced them into explain thing,

whenever there is a topical issue you know it will be in the House of

Commons. He has changed that. He has. Time has been courageous, Ied a

mire the way he has been a speaker. I would say this, during the

referendum campaign, he asked me Nick Clegg, and Peter Hitchens to

debate Brexit if his constituency. It was a packed out meeting. He

chaired it. I said don't you want to join in? He didn't. He showed no

desire to join in, he was impartial. He goes out to universities and kind

of demyth GCSEs Parliament by speaking to them in a way, he

doesn't gets credit for it and stays on after and drinks with them.

Sometimes he, you know, it is clearly a mistake to have gone into

his views retrospectively on that referendum campaign, I don't think

that, did he try and stop Article 50 from being triggered in the House of

Commons? That would be a scandal. Even that would be beyond him.

Briefly, yes or no, could you imagine Betty Boothroyd behaving

like that? Not at all. None of the recent speakers I could imagine

doing that. It is good he is different.

The bill that will allow the government to trigger Article 50

and begin Brexit negotiations was voted through

Many MPs were in a difficult position - unsure whether to vote

with their conscience, their constituency,

Europe, once such a divisive issue for the Conservatives,

is now causing major divisions inside the Labour Party.

So, let's have a look what happened in a bit more detail:

Thanks to academic research carried out since the referendum,

we now have estimates of how each individual constituency voted.

It's thought that 410 constituencies voted Leave.

On Wednesday night, the EU Notification of Withdrawal Bill

was voted through by the House of Commons.

The bill left the Labour Party divided.

Jeremy Corbyn told his MPs to respect the result

of the referendum and vote for the government's bill -

But 52 Labour MPs defied Mr Corbyn's thee-line whip

That's about a fifth of the Parliamentary Labour Party.

Of those 52 Labour MPs who voted against the bill,

the majority, 45 of them, represent seats that voted Remain.

However, seven Labour MPs voted against the Article 50 Bill,

even though their constituents voted Leave in the referendum.

The Conservative Party were much more united.

The vast majority of Tory MPs, 320 of them, voted for the bill.

Just one Conservative MP, Ken Clarke, voted against it.

His constituency, Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire, voted Remain.

The bill will now go to the House of Lords -

peers will start debating it on Monday the 20th of February.

Joining me now is Matthew Goodwin, politics professor at

He's got a book out next month called

Brexit: Why Britain Voted To Leave The European Union.

Welcome to the programme. Has Brexit, how you voted in the

referendum and your continuing attitudes toward it, is that now

becoming the new dividing line in British politics? I think it

certainly is contributing to a new dividing line, in western politics

more generally, we know over the last ten years, that the old left

and right division has been making way for a new division, between

essentially social liberals and Conservative, and Brexit was a, an

incident a moment that really reflected that new dividing line, so

it wasn't just the case that Brexit has cut across Labour's base, it is

that dividing line, that deeper division is cutting across social

democracies more generally. Is there a possibility, no higher than that,

that it will reShane our party politics? I think it is too early to

know whether this is a fundamental long-term realignment. If we look at

what is happening in local by-election, what is happening at

by-elections, pictures a bit mixed but if you look at how some of the

Labour vote is responding, I think that potentially reflects the

possibility of a terminal decline for the Labour Party, it is going to

be incredibly difficult for Labour to win these voters back, these are

traditional working class, socially Conservative voters who are leaving

the party, don't forget, since the 1997 general election. It is not

just because of the referendum. If that was the case, Labour would

become more a party of the Metropolitan areas, and less of a

party outside of these area, is that what you are saying? What we are S

seeing across the west can social democracy that retrenchment into the

cosmopolitan, Metropolitan city area, university towns, you can

seeing in many European states populist right parties filling the

traditional socialist area, why are they doing that? Because they are

offering two message, economic and cultural protectionism. Social

Democrats are clinging to that economic protectionism but not

saying much about migration and multiculturalism and that sort of

stuff. Are there deeper forces at work than Jeremy Corbyn? He often

gets the blame for what is happening to the Labour Party now, but if you

look the way the Greek socialist party has been wiped out. The German

Social Democrats are in trouble. The Italian socialist party has lost a

referendum. The French socialist are coming close to being wiped out on

April 23rd, Labour's problems, are part of a much wider problem of

social democracy S Jeremy Corbyn is a surface problem, what I mean by

that is you could replace him tosh with another leader, they would

still have this fundamental tension within the electorate. They are

trying to appeal to two differenter reconcilable groups of voters who

think differently about the key issues of the day. It is very

difficult for any centre left party now to assemble the kinds of

coalitionses we saw in the '90s with Clinton and Blair and Schroeder.

Those days are gone. Does that explain why it is now Labour, rather

than the Conservatives, historically the party divided over the European

Union, does all of that help to explain why its Labour that now

seems, disunited over the EU? I think so, I think also that the

issue of Brexit, and the EU, is so immatly wrapped up with that issue

of immigration, if you look at who has been abandoned Labour since 2015

or the late 90s, the one thing those voters share is a rejection of the

so-called liberal consensus on EU membership and mass immigration. It

is difficult for any Labour lead eer co-bin or Clive Lewis on Dan Jarvis,

to bring those voters back unless they are going to move on that

cultural terrain. If they are not, they may not go to Ukip, they might

go to somewhere more difficult for Labour which is political apathy.

Thank you for that. Attention now shifts to the House

of Lords where peers will begin scrutinising the EU Withdrawal Bill

in just over a week. Brexit Secretary David Davis urged

the Lords "to do its patriotic duty" and resist the urge to tinker

with the legislation. Former minister Oliver Letwin

went one further - mooting the possibility

of the abolition of the Lords if it sought to frustrate

the bill in any way. Here he is posing the question

in the Commons on Thursday. Would he find time, in government

time for a debate, should the other place seek to delay beyond the end

of March the passage of our accession to Article 50, for this

House to discuss the possibility of either the abolition or full-scale

reform of the other place? And Oliver Letwin joins

me now from Dorset. Welcome back to the programme Mr Let

win. Before we come on to the Lord's, can I get your thoughts on a

matter that has been making the news this morning and John Bercow's

remarks about being a remain voter an giving something of a running

commentary on various Brexit issues, has he sqloefr stepped the mark as

speaker? -- overstepped the mark. I think this is slightly a fuss about

nothing. Every person who thinks about politics will have had some

opinion about great matters like Brexit, and I really don't see any

particular reason why his opinion shouldn't be known after the fact.

I, I was there throughout the five days of the Brexit debate, and I

have to say, I thought he was pretty scrupulously fair in the way he

handled the House, so, I, I don't really share the view that there is

some terrible thing that has been revealed this weekend. Let me come

on to what we are here to talk about, which is the Lords. Why have

you raised the threat of the abolition of the Lord for doing its

job of scrutinising what is coming out the Commons? Well, you know,

Andrew, this question of the job of the House of Lords and scrutiny, has

to be looked at carefully. There are all sorts of bills that come out the

House of Commons which are detailed things that relate to, finance, and

expenditure, and the criminal law, and all that sort of thing, and all

of that, I admire the work that the House of Lords does, as you say

scrutinising and we shouldn't use that word loosely, it means looking

carefully at the detail, line by line of complicated legislation,

hundreds of Paps in some cases, and spotting, using the considerable

expertise many, not all be many of the peers have, in any given field,

to identify things where the Commons has got it wrong in the sense that

the legislation wouldn't achieve what the Government of the day is

seeking to make it achieve. That is a serious proper role for an Upper

House and the House of Lords performs it pretty

Now this is a very different case. This is a two clause bill. The first

clause which is the operative clause says the Prime Minister should go

ahead and sign... I understand all that. We haven't got that much time,

this is becoming a monologue. There is nothing to scrutinise, Andrew.

There were plenty of amendments put before the Commons, none of them got

through, it is true. There are eight Labour amendments in the Lords, are

you resigned to this bill coming back to the Commons with amendments?

No, it should not come back with amendments. There were hundreds of

amendments literally put down in the House of Commons, they were all

drunk. They were all trying one way or another to derail the process.

This is a binary issue, should Theresa May sign the withdrawal or

not? What should the Commons do? The Commons has now voted in favour of

it. Node do should tolerate and unelected chamber forcing the

British people... The people voted in a referendum and the Commons

voted. The matter is now signed and sealed and should not be derailed by

the House of Lords. On Labour amendment wants confirmation that

when it is done, the potential Brexit agreement will be put before

parliament before any vote in the European Parliament, that has been

an agreed principle, what is wrong with that amendments? The government

has already agreed there will be a vote, but actually, what the

amendments were seeking was to give the Commons a further vote on

whether we actually leave or not. That is already decided. Neither the

House of Lords nor anybody else has a right in my view, despite the fact

I was a remain, to what the will of the British people. Nobody should

think an unelected chamber should now try to change the course of

British history by asserting amendments in a very effective on

clause bill which says go ahead and trigger Article 50. Are you

concerned that amendments by the Lords which would then have to go

back to the Commons for consideration, are you concerned

that could derail or delay the Prime Minister's timetable for Article 50?

Yes, exactly. That would be the result of a prolonged bout of

ping-pong between the two houses, or much worse, if the House of Lords

failed to give way and the Parliament act had to be used. It

would really be intolerable. It is not good for our country. Those of

us who voted remain would prefer for that not to happen. The whole

country -- it is important for the whole country that this happens in a

rapid way and allowing the government free rein to negotiate,

that is surely in all our advantages? Deed think any efforts

to abolish the House of Lords, an issue you have raised, does that

make it easier because your friend David Cameron stuffed the upper

chamber with donors, lapdogs and lingerie designers? I was among

those who advocated for many years wholesale reform of the House of

Lords, to turn it into a serious elected second chamber. I think we

should have an upper house which commands legitimacy. This is a

second issue. Here we have not got such a House and it seems to be very

clear that it should not seek to derail on delay the action which has

been mandated by the referendum, agreed by the House of Commons, and

what we want to see now is a smooth orderly effect for this bill, so it

becomes law and Theresa May can go ahead and negotiate on our behalf.

One more question on the process, if the Lords to amend the bill and it

goes back to the Commons and the Commons sends these amendments back

again, take them out, how long could this ping-pong between the two

chambers go on in your experience? It is a very, very interesting and

complicated question with the clerks of the two ends of the Palace of

Westminster not always agreeing about this. But through certain

machinations of slightly changing amendments as they go, in my

experience this could carry on for an awful long time if clever people,

and there are plenty of clever people in the House of Lords, want

to do that and that is precisely why I think we should not tolerate it.

Oliver Letwin, thank you for joining us from Dorset.

Joining me now is Labour's Leader in the House of Lords, Angela Smith.

The Commons passed this bill without any amendments... There were

changes, the government did concede a couple of points. But the

amendments did not go through. Does that put pressure on the Lords to do

the same? I think the Lords always feels under pressure to do the right

thing. When I heard Oliver Letwin, I did not know whether to laugh or

cry. We will not frustrate, we will not wreck, we will not sabotage. We

will do what David Davis said was our patriotic duty. We will

scrutinise the bill. We have at amendments from the Labour Party. We

will look at those. It depends on the government response if we vote

on those. There could be amendments asking the Commons to look again.

That is normally what we do. It is not the wrong thing to do. But if

you do this and make amendments, it then goes back to the Commons. If

the Commons rejects the Lords' amendments, what do you think will

happen? I do not see any extended ping-pong at all. It is perfectly

legitimate. We are not talking about the outcome of negotiations, we are

talking about the process. The process of engaging with Parliament

and reporting to Parliament. It would be totally responsible for

Parliament to say, off you go, Theresa May, have two years of

negotiation and come back and talk to us at the end. The has to be a

process where the government can use the expertise of parliament to get

this right. But if you do put in some amendments, it has to go back

to the Commons, they may well say they don't want those amendments and

it may go back to the Lords, could that at the very least delay the

Prime Minister's Brexit timetable? I don't think so. She said the end of

March. Time has been built in for all the normal processes. I think

Oliver Letwin and others are getting a bit overexcited. This is the

normal process. Unless the government get things right the

first time every time, the has to be this kind of process. These are

reasonable amendments. This is a Labour amendment we are talking

about here, you want a vote in the UK Parliament before any

vote in the European Parliament if and when the Brexit deal is done,

the Commons and the Lords get to vote on it first. But the government

I think have already agreed to that so what is the point? It needs to be

on the face of the bill. It is over well if the government have agreed

it. Lord dubs had an agreement about child and look what happened to

that. Does not sound as if you would go to the wire on that? It is

important it is not just about the vote at the end, you have the

ongoing engagement. If it is going to be a bad deal, we need to know

long before we get to that stage? Is it something you would hold out for?

I don't know yet. It is about how the House of Lords votes, Labour do

not have a majority, we never had a majority in the House of Lords when

we were in government. It is wrong to suggest that we cannot debate

these issues... I don't think anyone is suggesting that. They are. It is

not unfair to ask the government to ask the House of Commons to look

again to look at those issues if that is what the House of Lords

decides. Bit of the House of Commons says we looked, we are sticking with

what we voted for, we rejected every amendment by at least 30 votes on

all occasions, the Lords then have to buckle, is that what you are

saying? Some point I think it is clear the House of Commons have to

have its say. I think it is inconceivable that having had a

referendum, which was not overwhelming, but it was a clear

result, the House of Lords has no intention of sabotaging that but

there are things which are not good about the process that we think

could be improved. We have not just have the result of the referendum

which voted to leave, but we have had the will of the Commons that

passed this legislation by a majority of 372. And I am not

contesting that for a second! Could you cite a precedent for the upper

house amending a bill which passed by 372 votes in the Commons? Quite

other things will come to the House of Lords with big majorities from

the Commons and quite often the amendments we get, with that then

forward and the government sees it could do better. Though not

necessarily saying the government has got things wrong, but they could

do things better. That happens time and time again and it is not

unusual. If you were seen to thwart the referendum result and the vote

in the Commons, the elected chamber of parliament, is the threat of

abolition hanging over you? I think that is really ridiculous and

absolute nonsense. We are not tying to what the decision of the House of

Commons, we are trying to do better. It is a bit rich of the government

and Oliver Letwin to complain about getting things through in time when

the House of Commons spent -- the government spent three months trying

to debate this issue. There have been some strong questions put to

the government from the House of Lords on all sides. I don't know if

the amendments have been passed or not. I think we have a good case for

the government to get debate the point. If a traditional MP like

Oliver Letwin is calling for the abolition of the hereditary and

appointed chamber, and the Labour person like yourself was trying to

defend that, that would not be a sustainable position, I would

suggest! We saw this with the Strathclyde report as well, this is

a government like no other. It is the first Conservative government in

history not to have an automatic majority. They do not like challenge

or scrutiny. But you get my point, Labour cannot go to the wire in

defending and an elected second chamber, can it? Actually, Labour

can go to the wire in saying the government does not get it right

every time. House of Lords is going to normal processes and people like

Oliver Letwin are really getting a little bit over excited, and people

who have been anonymously briefing. Who has been anonymously briefing? I

don't know, they are anonymous! I understand people want to make

amendments, that is the role of the House of Lords, but can I just for

the avoidance of doubt, is it still your case that whatever amendments

to make, whatever may go back and forward, it is not your intention to

stop Article 50 being triggered by the end of March? I have been saying

that, exactly that for months and months and months. It is

inconceivable that an unelected House will thwart the will of the

House of Commons and a referendum on this issue. But that does not mean

we will be bullied by Oliver Letwin and others. But the triggering will

happen by the end of March? I very much suspect so unless Theresa May

has second thoughts, I suspect that will happen. Thank you.

Now, just because it's parliamentary recess next week

There are two by-elections round the corner -

one in Copeland, and another in Stoke-on-Trent Central

where the former Shadow Education Secretary,

Tristram Hunt, vacated his seat to take up a role

as Director of the Victoria Albert Museum in London.

But Labour are facing a fight to hold onto the constituency

Seconds away, Ukip's new leader has stepped into the ring

as their candidate in a by-election bout to see

At the last election Ukip came second to Labour here

But now they are confident they can land a knockout blow,

because this place is packed with people that voted to leave the EU.

70% of people voted to leave the European Union.

I'm the only candidate standing in this election

who is a true Brexiteer, who has always campaigned to leave

the EU and therefore I believe I would be the best person

But he has had to fight off allegations

he wasn't living in the constituency when he entered the contest.

Explain to me what is going on with this issue about your house?

Well, we took up the lease the day before nominations.

Everything we've done is perfectly legal and within the law.

The Labour Party are trying to get off the real issues in this election

and focus on something which is banal nonsense.

And there's been trouble as well for the Labour contender.

He's been labelled a Remoaner after he sent a series

of anti-Brexit tweets, filled with words

I can't believe I'm about to ask this question in a nursery

on a Sunday morning TV programme, but did you really tweet that

I tweeted many things about Brexit, that's tweet is out there.

It was done quite after the referendum result and it

was my way of showing my frustration at the fact that months

after the result we hadn't had anything from the government.

Theresa May had failed to produce any plan,

she had failed to give any meaningful statement

about what Brexit meant other than bland statements

about Brexit is Brexit, and it's a hard Brexit, or a soft Brexit.

The context of it was it was out of frustration.

So you didn't mean to insult the 70% of the people who live here

I never mean to insult anybody and you know,

I've made it quite clear, if I'm elected as the member

of Parliament for Stoke-on-Trent Central, I will absolutely respect

the wishes of the people of Stoke Central.

I will make sure my vote in parliament is to trigger Article 50.

While the Tories' man has done little bit of rebranding too.

I voted Remain and I've been open about that, but my top priority

is about the economy and to ensure we still have an

Theresa May has set out clear proposal to ensure we develop

a trade relationship with Europe and make that a success.

It means the Lib Dems and the Greens are the ones battling Brexit.

Well, when the Lib Dem candidate is actually here.

The candidate is a consultant cardiologist.

He is actually at work today doing very important heart surgery.

He will be back tomorrow, back on the campaign trail working hard.

30% of people voted to Remain and nobody else

is representing them, so, you know, it is still a live issue.

It is still something people care about.

We are only at the start of the Article 50 process

We are very a clear that we are standing up for those

who want to remain in the single market, who want to protect jobs

Labour have taken people for granted in this area for a great many years.

Ukip, I'm afraid, all Ukip can offer to politics is division.

I've covered a lot of by-elections where Ukip have come second.

We'll find out if they really got Labour on the ropes this

And here is a full list of all the candidates standing

in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.

They do atract lots of candidates. You can get that on the BBC website

as well. I was trying to think back, here we have the main opposition

party defending two seats in by-elections in the midterm of a

government. All the speculation is where the

opposition party can hold on, that is unprecedented. I can't give of an

equivalent. You wouldn't just expect them to win seats they have held

traditionally, you would expect hem to make inroads into seats held by

the other party, I wonder if they fail to hold on to just one of

these, whether it accelerates the momentum and criticism of the

leadership of the moment. I think they are interesting constituencies.

Matthew good win was talking about the left win coalition over the

years, almost being too broad for its own good, including places like

Primrose Hill and Hackney. Big university towns in Manchester,

Bristol. Diverse ethnically and included places like Stoke which are

more Conservative. With a small c. Less economically well-off, more

diverse, can the left hang on to both bits of country. Recent

evidence suggests it cannot and the opportunity for Ukip is to pick up

the second of those two types of community, the Stokes and the cope

lands. That what makes the by-elections interest I would

suggest. It is not just about Mr Corbyn's future about which we hear

too much, it is about this traditional Labour coalition, can it

still survive, particularly in places like Stoke? Europe clearly is

a test. I think it's a myth by the way that Labour are only split now,

over Europe and it has always been a Tory problem, last time I was on I

mentioned it. That is why we had a referendum in 75. That is why they

had a round then. But they were in chaos behind the scenes over what

they thought about the euro, skillful leadership can paper over

the cracks, and to address the wider issue of whether we are now in an

era where left right issues have disappeared, and there is more of a

regional divide, if you take Europe out of the equation which you can't,

but if you were able to, issues about health, transport housing do

split more left-right than a regional divide, so I think there is

still fundamental left-right issues, but Europe isn't one of them and

Europe has to be managed by a Labour leader skill fully and evidently

that hasn't happened now. How would you see the by-elections in the

current political context? Labour should be walking them, it should be

a sign of the March of the Labour Party taking on the current

Conservative Government. I don't think they raise any questions about

Corbyn's leadership because the people who put him in don't think

that winning elections matter, you have to remember this will be the

mainstream media, it will be our fault why any of those Labour

candidates don't win, the thing that is interesting is whether there is

is a role for Ukip. The argument after the referendum was Ukip has

done its job, it got the referendum, nothing to see here, I remember

speaking to put a Nuttall before he was Ukip leader, on the day after

the battle and he said this is Year Zero, where Ukip starts now, and

this, and this is the interesting thing, does, do we see this one

particular party having a role in the future? And I think it is all to

play for, they could not not have stood in this seat. They have to win

it to be an electoral force. The Labour candidate in Copeland has

made the NHS the issue for her in this, that goes into the left-right,

are we spending enough, are we not? That will be a test of what you were

saying to see if traditional left-right issue, which at the

moment would play Labour's way I would suggest, are big enough to

overcome all the things you have been talking about and Matthew has

been talking about. Maybe at this particular junction they are not,

but I don't think any of those issues will go away, and that is why

I question whether we are see the end of a historic left-right divide.

At the moment with Europe so prominent, clearly these

by-elections are unusual. And they will be a test of leadership for

Theresa May in the coming months if not at the moment, as they have been

in a way that he hasn't risen to, for the Labour leader.

We will be leave on BBC One on the night, February 23rd off back of

this week, we will bring you the result of both these crucial

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

Hello, and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

Coming up, could Wales learn from Canada in how

we help homeless people, and the new Shadow Welsh Secretary

tells me why Labour needs to pull together and back Jeremy Corbyn.

But first one of his predecessors has told us he's made a "strategic

Lord Kinnock led the party for nearly ten years and is a former

He says Mr Corbyn has managed to turn Tory divisions over

Europe into a series of difficulties for Labour.

With his extensive experience of Brussels, our reporter

Bethan James asked him how long he thought the negotiations

The possibility of negotiating a comprehensive deal of the kind

that this country really does need within two years is unthinkable.

And I think that people who talk about ten years

You have a considerable amount of experience in Brussels, how

The first instinct is, of course, most British people

working in the institutions of the European Union,

and just about everybody else, they are appalled.

But that's not going to get in the way of them

doing a professional job in terms of negotiations.

They will do the job in a very workable way that could mean,

of course, very prolonged processes, simply because a great deal

of minute detail as well as great principles are involved.

I've undertaken international trade negotiations myself.

I negotiated the transport agreement in aviation, rail and road

So despite the grand between leaders of the countries,

do you think it inevitably, you will find ourselves having

About three o'clock in the morning meeting when everybody comes

Sometimes it's four, half past four in the morning.

There is a real problem, however, and it's already apparent.

Mrs May has said already, repeatedly, that they want to be

best friends with the European Union.

However, at the same time they've done that they've said that

if we don't get our way we will adopt an alternative

economic model, which everybody knows means they would try to turn

it into a kind of offshore European tax haven.

A sort of Cayman on the English Channel.

Now, in terms of trying to win friends and influence people,

And the second thing is, she is also said that she is quite

Now, that's not a great negotiating stance.

If you are trying to put an emphasis on positive possibilities,

as she has in one part of vocabulary, you stick with that.

If, eventually, conditions become intolerable, then there is no

inevitable compromise at three o'clock in the morning.

But you don't announce it beforehand, not least

because if you do then the calendar will do the work of the other side.

If you say that our final threat is we will walk away.

The art in any way infuriated, by the stance taken in negotiations,

they can not really be blamed for saying, OK, we'll just

We'll let the deadline come and see how you deal with that.

When you are in negotiations you're not playing conkers.

You yourself have said, and Lord Hain has said,

that poorer areas will be hit by Brexit whereas areas in Wales,

but those are the very areas that voted to leave.

Surely the srgument, their plight is a valid one?

I've spoken, as you would expect, to hundreds of people

Left behind, disadvantaged by the gigantic sweep of change that

overtaken industrial and rural Wales, for instance,

Now, the calculation that people have now made

is whether they would be advantaged or disadvantaged by Brexit.

Given the realities relating to the single market,

to the forms of migration you've got, and to inward investment.

That's not even mentioning the ?300 million a year that we get

from European funding those in public culture and regional

But it is tricky politically for MPs particularly,

like your son, for example, the area you once

And those MPs feel that they have too no vote to trigger article 50,

because they are representing the will of those people.

How would you vote if you were in the Commons now?

I would have voted the same way as the majority did.

I think that the Labour leader made a strategic error in not saying

there should be a free vote, so that members of Parliament

could reflect the vote in the areas that they represent.

And then, simultaneously, a focus really hard on what the conditions

Any disadvantage that is accrued to the British economy will be felt

most by the people in the least secure economic position,

How do you think the present leader is handling Brexit?

I don't think it's being handled, actually.

I think that the one really seriously useful thing that

he's done is to appoint the Brexit spokesman.

Keir Starmer is a very effective forensic lawyer,

of skill necessary and the kind of commitment necessary to make

the rational arguments in the House of Commons.

Beyond that, what potentially could have been a serious problem

for the Conservative Party, because of the deep divisions

in our party over Europe, I mean, they've lasted 40 years

and they are very deep denial, has actually turned, because of the...

Rather ineffectual handling of the issue by the leadership

of the Labour Party, into a series of difficulties

Naturally, since the Labour Party is my first commitment on my first

love, other than my family and my country, and I

How then does the leadership ensure, what should Jeremy Corbyn be doing

to ensure that the Labour Party survives this?

Well, he showed, as well as politically, almost physically,

demonstrate his commitment to the Solidarity, the Comradeship,

the unity of the Labour Party by making strong, salient arguments

himself about the need to safeguard the well-being

of the British people, particularly those who are

And if he did that, in a distinctive, assertive,

way a passionate way if you like, with the real substance.

Then I think you'd see people say, yes, when the call came,

when he was up against it, and when he had his back

to the ropes, he came back fighting and made clear,

forceful arguments that persuade us...

I hope, I mean, he's been elected leader.

And if you are a leader, that's what you've got to do.

Every minute of the day, and the night, come to that.

Now is enough being done to help homeless people in Wales?

Charities have told this programme there's a gap in provision

which the Welsh Government needs to address.

A headcount of rough sleepers carried out one night last November

showed there were 141 people sleeping on the streets of Wales

Cemlyn Davies has been trying to find out.

Myself and a couple of others used to sleep on the corner there.

Well, we just huddled up to each other, or used

For seven years Alan Rayner lived on the streets of Swansea,

the former professional golfer's life unravelled as grief

and alcohol took their toll, leaving him homeless.

How many consecutive nights would you spend here?

Maybe two or three, and then we'd go somewhere else.

If we stayed here, like, quite a few nights, then some

people get to know you, they know where you're sleeping,

and they think, oh, maybe he's got a drink, you know.

Let's see if he's asleep, we'll attack him, whatever.

So you were always feeling very vulnerable?

Alan is now off the streets and the drink, thanks to the support

he's received from organisations like The Wallich.

Carl Bresnan works for the charity handing out breakfast and advice

It's hard to say how many clients day to day,

You might see someone today, you might see them tomorrow,

then you might not see them for the week because of

the transient nature of rough sleeping and the lifestyle.

There has been an increase over the past 12 months, definitely.

The latest figures, released by the Welsh government this

Some of the results are based on a simple head count carried out

The estimated total number of people sleeping rough on Welsh

That's an increase of 72% in 12 months.

That snapshot count followed another piece of research conducted

over a two-week period, during that fortnight an estimated

313 people were found to be sleeping rough in Wales.

So why are more people sleeping rough in Wales,

especially given that tackling homelessness has been a priority

Recent housing legislation, for example, is supposed to ensure

more help was available for people at risk of losing their home.

I feel the reason why there is still an increase in rough sleeping,

despite the legislation and research they've already sone,

is because the focus has been on a preventative agenda

which hasn't fully taken into account those that sleep rough,

and those that live a street -based lifestyle.

And if there was more research done, looking up the numbers,

how they've ended up there, what could be put in place now

they are there, how to get them back into sustainable accommodation,

that research is what needs to be done.

I feel there is a gap, currently, in the Welsh government,

the way they've looked at things in that area.

We are very supportive of the Welsh government's agenda.

It's proving to be a much better way of dealing

with homelessness for our clients, but where it's not working

so effectively is for people who are actually homeless.

We are better at preventing homelessness than we used to be,

but we aren't so good at helping people once they have

fallen into that hole, and once they are actually living

The City Of Medicine Hat in Canada claims to have almost eradicated

homelessness simply by giving rough sleepers a home with

The idea is that it easier for a rough sleeper to solve

their problems with a roof over their head.

The city's Mayor, says it also makes financial sense,

costing just one fifth of what it would cost to support

We've seen a reduction in costs to public systems like emergency

services that are offered by hospitals and the police.

What we see happening first is the if it's

implemented across the region, in particular, it can reduce

the cost to the service and those systems.

And those resources can be better used elsewhere.

You are in touch with your family? Yes, my brother.

Back in Swansea Alan counts himself lucky to have been given

somewhere to call home, he now wants to do some voluntary

work and hopes he can soon return to the golf course.

Now we asked for an interview with a minister but no-one was available.

However in a statement the Welsh Government said "We fully

recognise there is more to do and we expect Local Authorities

to focus on preventing and relieving homelessness.

We have recently announced nearly ?8 million for the Homelessness

Prevention Programme and also fund short term accommodation

Labour has a new shadow secretary of state for Wales,

the 5th since the general election less than two years ago.

She was promoted from the position of shadow justice minister,

has represented Wales over 100 times in squash and has

She was also married to the former secretary of state

for Wales, Ron Davies, but they've since divorced.

And I only mention that because, when I met up with her,

she told me their daughter found her appointment rather

Well, first of all, Christina Rees, congratulations on your new role.

Extreme honour to be asked, but I asked if I could speak

to my daughter, and I rang her lap, and she saw the irony

And said, well, Mum, we didn't see this one coming,

but, you know, please do what you want to do.

I know your heart is in politics, and serving Neath.

And now you've got a chance to represent Wales in politics,

Given that you're the fifth person to occupy this position

since the General Election less than two years ago, does that make

Not daunting, because we've had some tremendous shadows secretaries,

they've all been fantastic in the role.

And have left for, you know, for their own reasons.

And I'm sure they'd be able to give me advice,

I'd be willing to accept their advice.

With Carwyn, I have a relationship that goes back quite

He campaigned to get me elected in his seat, of Bridgend,

So we have a really good working relationship,

and I've already contacted Carwyn and we plan to meet

Do you see it as being the voice of Carwyn Jones in Westminster,

or vice versa, because I guess it's quite an important distinction?

I see it as working together for the good of the people of Wales.

I mean, I'm passionate about Wales, and I know that Carwyn is,

But there has been over the years that is tension between some

of the MPs and some of the AMs, especially in terms of the direction

of devolution, could that be a stumbling point,

I don't think so, because my task, shortly after I went to Westminster

in May 2015 and became secretary of the Welsh Labour group of MPs,

and one of my roles was to organise meetings so we could talk

We've had a few meetings of AMs and MPs that have gone really well.

I think we know how strong the Labour government has been

But there is a view that on the pace of devolution MPs have been more

sceptical than their counterparts in Cardiff Bay, is that

I can't speak for the MPs who are reticent, I believe in devolution.

I believe in taking powers down to a lower level and I think that

can only enhance the benefits of the people in Wales.

One of the things that Carwyn Jones talked about recently

was immigration, looking at Brexit and saying, actually,

Jeremy Corbyn's position on that isn't helpful,

it's London centric, is that something you'd go along

That's one of the criticisms that the Labour Party

has been rather London centric in Westminster.

But I'm a big fan of Keir Starmer man who is leading us

through the minefield that is Brexit and he's a very able, capable man.

His views are pretty much the same as Carwyn,

and I know they'll work together on the White Paper.

But Keir Starmer isn't the leader of the party, Jeremy Corbyn is.

And he's saying slightly different things.

I think we resolved that difference now, and immigration,

people should be more than welcome to come to Wales if they've got

a job, and you know that the NHS is propped up not only in Wales,

And further afield to come in and give us their expertise.

I interviewed Carwyn Jones a couple of months ago,

and he said, actually, there isn't really a problem

with immigration in Wales, but there is the perception

of members of the public that they think there's

They think it's far higher than it is, it's about 2% in Neath.

People born outside of the European Union,

Isn't there a lack of leadership from the Labour Party,

from Carwyn Jones and people like that, saying, well,

immigration isn't a problem, but we'll still do something

We did get it on the doorstep when we campaigned vigorously

And we had the conversation that people on the doorstep,

People coming over here stealing our jobs, it makes

And then they get this perception that it is their fault.

You mentioned the divisions in the party. They are schisms on divisions

within the party at the moment, how confident are you that Jeremy Corbyn

will, and should lead the party into the next election in 2020?

He is our leader. He has been democratically elected. As far as

I'm concerned we should be behind the leader and support him in any

way we can. That is the structure of the Labour Party.

But if there are, and there are always rumours around, but if there

are people who will try to unseat him before the next election would

you be telling them I'll play no part in this? He's got my 100%

support. Battle waiver? That's exactly what

I'll be saying. He is our leader I form part of the Shadow Cabinet and

it's a tremendous honour. I'll be working for unity in the party. We

have been united since the summer and have been working so hard to

make it work. Why are the fifth incumbent in your role, so they

won't be a success before 2020? I hope not. Your sporting

achievements, you've represented Welsh schools at hockey, tennis and

athletics, you represented Wales in squash and are a black belt in judo,

yet you've got something against God, I'm not saying I disagree with

you, but what is your problem with golf?

I said this in a debate because I'd been campaigning to get squash into

the Olympics. I thought it would be in the London Olympics because we

could have got medals. I just drew an analogy between I could go on a

squash court and hit 100 balls in five minutes and my brother who

plays golf takes five hours to hit 100 balls around a golf course.

The comparison doesn't ring true for me.

So you're impatient Ben! Not impatient but I want more quality,

I'd probably had it in the rough anyway! Thank you, Christina Rees.

That's all from us for this week and indeed the next fortnight.

You can follow us there - we're @walespolitics

Diolch am wylio, thanks for watching, time to go back

After the excitement and late nights in the Commons last week,

MPs are having a little break this week as we head into

But there's still plenty in the diary in the near future -

let's just remind ourselves of some key upcoming dates.

There they are. We have the two by-elections on February 23rd. The

budget is 8th March. That will be the last spring budget under this

Government because it moves to the autumn.

That round of French elections narrows the candidates, probably

about eight or nine, down to two, the two who come first and second,

then go into a play off round on May 7th. That will determine the next

President. Steve, listening to Oliver Letwin and to the Labour

leader in the House of Lords, is there any way you think that end of

March deadline for Mrs May could be in jeopardy? No, I don't. Andrew

Smith couldn't have been clearer with you they would do nothing to

block not just Article 50 but that timetable, so I would be surprised

if they don't make it. Given her, Theresa May's explicit determination

to do so, not to do so would have become a problem for her, I think

one way or another... No before this vote last week there was a vote nor

the deadline, to agree the deadline by all sides. Plain sailing do you

think? There is no serious Parliamentary resistance and it

would be a personal embarrassment, I think for the Prime Minister to name

the the end of March as the deadline and to miss it, unless she has a

good excuse. I I reckon it will change the atmosphere of politics

for the next two years, as soon as the negotiations begin, people in

our profession will hunt for any detail and inside information we can

find, thing also be leaked, I think from the European side from time to

time, it will dominate the headlines for a solid two years and change

politics. Let me just raise a possible, a dark cloud. No bigger

than man's hand, that can complicate the timetable, because the Royal

Assent on the current timetable has to come round the 13th. I would

suggest that the Prime Minister can't trigger that until she does

get the Royal Assent. If there is a bit of ping-pong that could delay

that by receive day, the last thing the Europeans would want, they have

another big meeting at the end of March which is the 60th anniversary

of the Treaty of Rome. They don't want Article 50 to land on the

table... It would infuriate everybody. My guess is she will have

done it by then, this is between the Commons and the Lords, I mean Andrew

Smith couldn't have been clearer, that they might send something back

but they didn't expect a kind of a long play over this, so. The Liberal

Democrats, they are almost an irrelevance in the Commons but not

the Lords, they feel differently. Now, we don't know yet what the

European Union negotiating position is going to be, we don't know

because there are several crucial elections taking place, the Dutch

taking place in March and then the one we put up, the French, and, at

the moment, the French one is, it seems like it is coming down, to a

play-off in the second round between Madame Le Pen who could come first

in the first round and this Blairite figure, independent, centre-leftish

Mr Macron, he may well get through and that, and the outcome of that

will be an important determine napt on our negotiations. -- determinant.

You o couldn't have two more different candidate, you have a

national a front candidate and on the other hand the closest thing

France could have you to a liberal President. With a small l. A

reformist liberal President. It would be the most French thing in

the world to elect someone who while the rest of the world is elected

elitist, to elect someone who is the son of a teacher, who has liberal

views, is a member of the French elite. It would be a thing for them

to elect a man like that which I why I see them doing it. If it is Le

Pen, Brexit becomes a minor sideshow, if it is Le Pen, the

future of the European Union is? Danger, regardless of whether we are

were in or out. I suggest if it is Mr Macron that presents some

problems. He doesn't have his own party. He won't have a majority in

the French assembly, he is untried and untested. He wants to do a

number of things that will be unpopular which is why a number of

people close to Mrs Le Pen tell me that she has her eye on 2022. She

thinks lit go to hell in a hand basket under Mr Macron. He hasn't

got the experience. What I find fascinating. It is not just all to

play for in France, it is the fact what happens in France and Germany,

not so much Holland I think but Germany later on in the year, how

much it impacts what we are going to get. How much which ex #i78 panting

on them. And at the time we are trying to, withdrawing ourself from

European politics it is fascinating how much it will affect us. You see

what Matthew was talking about earlier in the show, that what we do

know, almost for sure, is that the socialist candidate will not get

through to the second round. He could come firth but the

centre-right candidate. If we were discussing that monthing a we would

say it between teen the centre-right and the national fronts. We are to

saying that. Matthew good win who spent a time in France isn't sure Le

Pen will get into the second round, which is interesting. It is, I mean,

it is going to be as important for the future of the European Union, as

in retrospect the British 2015 general election was, if Labour had

got in there would have been no referendum. That referendum has

transformed the European Union because we are leaving and the

French election is significant. We will be live from Paris on April

23rd on the day France goings to the first round of polls. Tom Watson, he

was on The Andrew Marr Show earlier today, was asked about Mr Corbyn,

this is what he had to say. We had a damaging second leadership

election, so we've got The polls aren't great for us,

but I'm determined now we've got the leadership settled for this

parliament, that we can focus on developing a very positive clear

message to the British people So Julia, I don't know who are you

are giggling. I find it untenable that, he is a very good media

performer and he comes on and he is sitting there so well, you know,

things are bad but don't worry we are looking at what we can do to win

2020. The idea that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were sitting in their

offices or on TV screens at this time in the electoral cycle thinking

well I wonder if we can come up with a policy the British people might

like. It is a nonsense, this is Tuesday night book zlufb. I am going

to ask you the question I was going to before. I would suggest that he

the right. The deputy Labour leader Tom Watson is violent the leadership

is settled, with one caveat, unless the Corbynistas themselves to decide

to move on Mr Corbyn, if the left of the Labour Party decides then it is

not settled. Settled. If that doesn't happen that is That would be

the worst situation if you are a Labour moderate. The Corbynistas

would be saying the problem is no Corbynism, it is Corbyn himself, if

we a younger person leading the process we can win the next general

election, which means you have another itration of this, another

five year experiment. And that is worst of all. If you are a Labour

moderate, what you want is Jeremy Corbyn contest the next general

election, possibly loses badly and then a Labour not moderate runs for

the leadership saying we have tried your way, the worst would be Corbyn

going, and a younger seven version of him trying and the experiment

being extended. I see no easy way out of this. That is why he radiated

the enthusiasm of someone in a hostage video in that interview.

Maybe he has the Stockholm Syndrome now. The Labour moderates have had

their day in the sun, two days in the sun and they lost. I suggest

they are not going to try for the hat-trick again. Is there any

indication that on the more Corbyn wing of the Labour Party, there is

now doubts about their man. Yes, just to translate Tom Watson, what

he meant was I Tom Watson am not going to get involved in another

attempted coup. I tried it and it was a catastrophe. That is question

enhe says it is set selled. It is because there is speculation on a

daily basis. I disagree, Julia said I think this lot don't care about

winning, I think they do. If the current position continue, one of

two things will happen. Either Jeremy Corbyn will decide himself

will decide he doesn't want to carry on. He half enjoys I it and half

hates it. Finds it a strain. If that doesn't happen there will be some

people round him who will say, look, this isn't working. There is another

three-and-a-half years. There is a long way to go. I can't see it

lasting in this way with politics in a state of flux, Tories will be

under pressure in the coming two years, to have opinion polls at this

level, I think is unsustainable. Final thought from you.? Yes, the

idea it St another three-and-a-half years is just madness, but the

people we are putting up at replacement for Jeremy Corbyn, and

they have been focus grouping them. Most members wouldn't know who most

of people were let alone most of the public.

Angela rain? They are not overwhelmed with leadership

potential at the moment. Very diplomatically put. Neither are the

Tories, but they happened to have one at the moment. All right. That

is it. Now, there's no Daily

or Sunday Politics for the next week But the Daily Politics will be back

on Monday 20th February and I'll be back here with the Sunday Politics

on the 26th. Remember if it's Sunday,

it's the Sunday Politics...