27/01/2013 Sunday Politics West Midlands

In the Midlands, after a week dominated by Europe, could the UK

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 2289 seconds

Independence Party commit local Hello from the Midlands, I am

Patrick Burns. With us today to make sense of the

political week, the Conservative MP Peter Luff and the Labour MP

Shabana Mahmood. They will be of with us throughout our part of the

programme, including that, later, after the week dominated by the

Prime Minister's promise of a referendum on Europe, could nine

Midlands Conservative MPs lose their seats because of rising

support for the anti-European Union party UKIP?

First, we are all journalists now, citizen journalists and hyper local

websites are everywhere. Take our internet sites run by local

communities for local communities, Stoke-on-Trent, Walsall, Solihull

are at the cutting-edge of a revolution in local news.

Birmingham has more of these websites than anywhere else in

I could say you are watching the next generation of reporters and

camera crews, but the children of Oratory Primary School are doing it

all for real, including holding our politicians to account. It is about

getting people involved in their local community, having a say. It

is fantastic to be able to interview councillors, getting the

young people's opinions across, and vice-versa. These children are part

of the change in use, using the internet to deliver hyper local

news, news for very small areas, and according to a new survey, the

Midlands is leading the way. In my experience, I find local

councillors respond pretty quickly, because they know that the people

who read my website are the voters. We put together the people behind

the revolution to swap ideas and experiences. All of this represents

an opportunity for politicians, but also a problem, with an explosion

in websites, how can you be sure you are talking to the right

people? It is not just an army of blockers the politician's face.

Birmingham is getting a new TV station. Instead of taking a broad

brush stroke, we can be in the hearts and minds of the audience

and the politicians. Let them engage in a more detailed way.

of this effort from blockers is often unpaid and fuelled by passion,

halting the powerful to account is not child's play, but should we be

happy it is up to our children to do it?

They are the voters of tomorrow, including those youngsters. We have

seen some good examples, but there is an obvious worry about this

online information and news, you cannot always be sure where it is

coming from, whether you can trust everything you see. The great thing

about online is that it is an opportunity to build a relationship

with the people that are behind it and to get to the heart of the

issues affecting the local community. That news network is

fantastic, young people getting involved in their area, picking up

skills, but also having the opportunity to put on the radar of

their local councillors issues that matter to them. It is more an

opportunity than a danger. Great community involvement, but there is

a threat for local newspapers. worries me. I welcome that people

can engage more in politics. But if a wider community loses access

through local newspapers that, Baileys and understanding. If the

issues become too parochial, we do not understand our issues with

others. There is the question associated with that, holding to a

coward people such as yourselves -- called into account. Local

newspapers are better equipped to do that, some people say. There is

some truth in that, but people who lead in at emir who see their

rubbish has not been collected for two weeks, it has not been done

properly, they can highlight and emir where a council service is

failing more quickly than the local or regional media would get

interested in. Because it is affecting them now, they are likely

to be across it more quickly. There is an issue about crediting your

sources if you are using material produced by other media, which is

important, but again, I find it much more of a positive. Anybody

can set themselves up as a website, there is a danger in this.

Journalists are trained to ask the right questions, and websites are

often parasitic on the professional journalists. We are very well aware

that the established media have had some serious questions to answer

about ourselves, but at least we are trained to understand the

balance between the right to know and privacy, law, is there not a

worry that it is a bit out of control out there? That is a

problem with the internet is generally, anybody can set up a

website and put on their unfounded allegations. It is a problem across

the internet. In my own experience of these websites, those people are

serious about it and they take their responsibilities seriously.

You have an online offering. Diversity is good, but the

traditional methods for political issues should be sustained, and

politicians should work hard to support local newspapers.

The Conservatives stand to lose a quarter of their parliamentary

seats here in the Midlands as a direct result of the surge in

support for the UK Independence Party. After a week when David

Cameron delivered the big speech aimed at shoring up his support on

Europe, growing support for UKIP's anti-European stance could overturn

the balance of power. The maths have been done by Professor John

Curtice of Strathclyde University. Recent opinion polls have put UKIP

on an all-time high, placing them above the Liberal Democrats. Many

of their potential supporters are traditional Tories, that is why

there will be fewer Conservative votes. They did not actually win

any seats themselves, but a reduced Tory turnout would pave the way for

the Labour Party gains. What began largely as a protest vote is now

set to change the colour of nine parliamentary seats here from blue

to red. Two-thirds also of the rise in

support that they have gained since the general election is coming from

people who said they voted for the Conservatives. Protest is crucial,

but these are people who are concerned about Europe. To the UKIP

can pick up those voters because it is reasonably close to a number of

the things that the Conservative supporters are concerned about.

They are people like Margot James, do you think these findings of

yours will come as a bolt from the blue, or have they been bracing

themselves for this sort of eventuality? In truth, we will be

looking at the events of the last 12 months, one of the unintended

consequences of the formation of a coalition. Only now has it become

evident to the Conservatives the potential risk, the way in which

they could potentially lose votes, not to the Liberals, but to UKIP.

They are potentially able to profit from their misfortune. What is your

view of the talk that David Cameron's speech will turn add to

be a game changer? It was designed to deal with UKIP. If the only

reason for switching was about Europe. But it is broader than that,

about the competence of the Conservative government, and we

should not necessarily expect that that speech is necessarily going to

bring these voters back onside. In a moment, we will talk to one of

UKIP's leading figures in our part of the country. Bill Etheridge was

the candidate for the police commissioner in the West Midlands,

and he had to stand in the European elections.

Our political reporters in Staffordshire, Shropshire and the

Black Country have been finding out how the political landscape here

could change. It is time for the British people

to have their say. It is time for us to settle this question about

Britain and Europe. So said David Cameron in his much anticipated

speech on our membership of the European Union. Half the battle

lines being drawn? The problem for the Prime Minister and the

Conservatives is natural party supporters in towns like this one,

Stafford. More and more voters are supporting UKIP, enough to cost the

sitting Tory MP his seat. The first Castle on this site was a timber

fortress built by the Normans almost a 1000 years ago. The battle

of 1069 between William The Conqueror and Edric The Wild ended

in a truce. Is this now the time for Conservatives and UKIP to lay

down their arms and agree not to stand against each other? He has

made an important speech about Europe, we will go into the next

general a election promising a referendum on Europe, which is

something that will be important to those people who might vote for

UKIP. We ought to push forward with our arguments about Europe, not

looking to endorse other peoples in some kind of pact. With UKIP's

leader declaring war on the Tories, this site could be set for another

spectacular battle. Whatever the outcome of that conflict, this is

another pocket of the Midlands that could seat Conservative MP toppled.

Stourbridge, home to the glass- making industry, the Red House cone

and MP Margot James. She is another one who could go if UKIP continue

to pick up votes, but the real winner is the Labour Party.

Disenchanted Conservative voters switching to UKIP opens the door to

a Labour Party victory. It has not gone unnoticed. Clearly, from the

Labour Party's view, I am over the moon. It is impacting on the

Conservatives or people switching from the Tories to UKIP, that has

got to be beneficial to us, but what I want to see is the Labour

Party gaining support on its own merits. Not because the Tories are

cocking everything up. It is a situation that means in towns like

this one the Conservatives have to fight two opponents, the official

Labour Party opposition and a party that is not even in Parliament. But

this is not just about seats Conservatives could lose. That is

also about the ones they have not won. Our own world heritage site

still has a Labour MP, just. A good showing from UKIP in Telford helped

keep the Tories out in 2010. Ironbridge is as popular with

political number-crunchers as it is with day-trippers. Just as the

court has its dangers, one of our voices in Europe who quit UKIP says

voters should be aware of her former party. They have spent �43

million since they were elected and achieved nothing. There is also the

message that there is only one political party bridging the divide

between our elected leaders and demands for a referendum. We do not

have any other policies, we are a single issue pressure group Party,

that is how we fundamentally differ. Not all members of UKIP support a

referendum. But what are still to flow, UKIP might struggle to

maintain their present buoyancy, but if they do, a quarter of our

Conservative MPs could be heading There is more about this on my

latest website post. Bill Etheridge is also planning to

stand a for UKIP in Dudley North, one of six local constituencies

where the Conservatives narrowly failed in the last election,

because of voters switching to UKIP. The Prime Minister has set out

circumstances in which this country could withdraw from the EU. What

has that done for your unique message to the electorate? It is

not unique any more. It has not done anything, because that is just

one of our policies, the reason for UKIP, which are a different party

from the establishment. We need to be outside of the EU, that is it.

How can it be in the interests of the policies that you say you

support to set up a situation which makes a Labour Party government are

more likely because they are unseating a nine Tories, and you

can be sure that a majority Labour Party government would take a lot

of the things you favour straight off the table? The important

message that the electorate need to understand, if you vote UKIP, you

get UKIP. If you vote UKIP, you get the Labour Party. It is a first

past the post system, if we get enough people,... We have got

separate policies, totally different, we are not beholden to

unions or big business. Vote for us, what happens to the other parties

is not important to us. What happens to this country is what

matters. Smaller parties do tend to suffer a bit of a squeeze as

general elections approach, so would now not be a good time to

think about the pact being suggested by the Lichfield

Conservative MP Michael Fabricant? No. It is a symbol of the

desperation of the Conservative Party. David Cameron's speech was

about that as well. We have got our own views, owl way of going about

things, we are be separate party, a lot of our members would never vote

Tory, which are independent. Conservative party is desperate, so

is the Prime Minister, you are on the run. I do not agree. We did not

lose as much due to UKIP as is claimed. UKIP are a threat, but we

should not panic. Europe is the fifth most important concern for

voters. What would you really say to somebody who instinctively is at

the more Euro-friendly end of your party, to a more traditional

Conservative supporter twinned with the idea of voting for UKIP? They

will be more likelihood of a Labour Party government. It was with the

Liberals in the past, it is the same argument, it is still valid.

What really concerns you, crime, the economy, immigration, we are

dealing with them. For the Labour Party, you want to build up the

support in your own terms, but Darren Cooper said you are not

going to look too closely at the colour of the money if there is a

split between UKIP and the Tories. What I am interested in is talking

to the electorate, people flirting with other parties, I want to make

the case for why they should be voting for the Labour Party.

would not mind being elected by default? You have got to make a

pitch to the electorate. First past the post is the system. If people

are splitting the Tory vote, on the left, there are people buying for

Labour votes. We have got to make our pitch to the electorate. One of

the point that UKIP make, they feel they can appeal not just to

Conservatives but to old Labour voters, because the main parties,

they feel, are losing touch with traditional British values, gay

marriage is a troublesome issue, there are others, and Bill feels he

is in the tide of public opinion. The majority of support is coming

from the Conservative Party, but a lot is coming from the Labour Party.

It appeals to older male voters in particular. I am not complacent

about the fact that there are people who voted Labour before who

we still have to convince to vote Labour in the next general election.

We are ambitious in the task we face, which are interested in

talking to people across the spectrum, all over the country, to

be a national party, not primarily based in the south, which is a

problem affecting the Tories, a party of north, south, across the

UK. You are hearing a from the two big parties, which have a much

broader, more sophisticated range of policies. They have got a much

larger picture about a finance, a much larger network of people

working for them, but you could not put a cigarette paper between their

policies. It is not true. There is a consensus in the establishment,

which offers something different. Some of the things that the big

parties are not talking about, you come to UKIP. Would you like to see

more Conservative or Labour MPs? want UKIP MPs. The reality is that

all you can do is divide the vote. With 16% of the vote, that is the %

of the poll ratings, realistically, it is between them and the Liberal

Democrats. The Green Party won a seat, they have got nothing like

our support. We have got to organise ourselves properly and

stop making the best of this great support that we are starting to get,

to put the heat on the Tories and Labour. A prediction for the local

elections? We will take lots of seats. We will be watching.

It is time now for a round-up of the rest of the political elite in

Where have all of the customers got? Businesses in Birmingham think

the snow cost them �50 million a day in lost trade. Sentenced to

death, Cheltenham grandmother Lindsay Sandiford was found guilty

of smuggling cocaine in Indonesia. Her MP will fight the case. There

is an appeal process, and the possibility of the Supreme Court,

and an appeal for clemency to the President. Could a takeover safety

Redditch hospital? It stands to lose its A&E, but a new plan has

emerged that could see it run by the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in

Birmingham. Fewer cars than ever are using the M6 toll, last year

was its quietest. When employment in the Midlands went up, but news

for Rolls Royce, nearly 400 jobs are to go with the closure of the

Until the autumn reshuffle, Peter Luff was the minister for defence

procurement, did you see this terrible body blow for the Rolls-

Royce workers coming? Not quite as it is being betrayed. It is likely

the support worker will come up over a number of years, declined to

nothing, and other jobs are generated elsewhere in the UK. It

is not good news for them, and it is unwelcome, but other parts of

the country will benefit. The unions or a hoping those workers

might be redeployed. They are some of the most profitable businesses

on earth, there aero-engines. important that unions work with

management to make sure they can retain those jobs, even if it is

moving them around to different sites or in two different divisions.

I am keen that everybody works together to get the best outcome

possible for the workers. suspicion is, when we talk about

people moving around and being redeployed, this is a euphemism for

cuts, and it comes down to cuts in the end. The union has chosen to

highlight the bad news, when there is so much good news. They have

taken a story and spun it irresponsibly, making the situation

worse. The figures for them are not bad at all. They have got a duty to

stand up for the workers. I did not see the press release for Jaguar

Land Rover. They are keen to stand up for the interests of the workers,

that is the most important thing. We could go on all day, it is very

interesting. As far as the Midlands are concerned, this is where we