30/03/2014 Sunday Politics West Midlands

Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

Can Ed Davey keep the lights on? Can he ever deliver cheaper power? Or

the investment our energy market badly needs? We'll be asking the

Energy Secretary. Why has the anti-independence Better

Together campaign suddenly got the jitters? We'll be quizzing Scottish

Secretary Alistair Carmichael. And whatever happened to the BNP?

They could be heading for In the Midlands, you cannot then our

local services. In London, changes to the authority

which runs the capital's Fire Service. The Mayor has a political

move designed to silence his critics.

And with me, as always, the most useless political panel in the

business, who we're contractually obliged to insult on a weekly basis.

But not today, because they are our chosen ones. They are the brightest

and the best, we've even hired a plane to prove it: Helen Lewis,

Janan Ganesh and Nick Watt who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

Right, left and centre of the Westminster Establishment have been

unanimous in saying there would be no chance of monetary union with the

rest of the UK for an independent Scotland. Then an unnamed minister

spoke to our Nick saying that wasn't necessarily so, and that made the

Guardian's front page. The SNP were delighted and the anti-independence

campaign rushed to limit the damage. The faux pas has come at a time when

the Better Together side was already beginning to worry that things were

going the Nationalists' way. Let's speak to a leading light in that

campaign, Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael, who's in

Aberdeen at the Scottish Liberal Democrat spring conference.

Alistair Carmichael, why is there a sense of crisis now engulfing the no

campaign? I think that is something of an overstatement. What you have

got is, I am getting my own voice played back in my ear. What you have

got here is one story from an unnamed source, a minister who we

are told, we do not know for certain, who has speculated on the

possibility of a currency union actually happening. I do not think

that is helpful but it is not any big deal. You have to measure it

against what we have got publicly named on the record. We have got a

detailed intervention of the Governor of the Bank of England

Mark Carney, outlining all the reasons why a currency union would

not be a good idea. And then you have got independent advice from the

permanent Secretary of the Treasury himself saying actually, this is

such a bad idea, that I would never advise a chancellor to go ahead with

it. You set one against the other and you see that pretty much the

force of argument is very much against those of us who want to

remain in the United Kingdom. All the minister was saying is come the

day, if Westminster is negotiating with a new independent Scotland a

deal is to be done, Faslane where the nuclear deterrent is, there is

nowhere else in the UK to put that is, certainly not for the next 0

years, a deal would be done, the nuclear weapons would stay in

Faslane and Scotland would get a monetary union with the rest of the

UK. That is perfectly plausible isn't it? No, I'm sorry, it is

simply not plausible. The economy is more important than anything else.

What you have had here is very clear advice from the treasury officials

saying it is not in the economic best interests of the people of

England Wales, Northern Ireland any more than it is in the interests of

people in Scotland. Where do you put the nukes? The outcome will not

change. Where do you put the nukes when the Nationalists kick you out?

I do not believe that will be a problem because I do not believe

Scotland will vote for independence. But you might be asking the Scottish

Nationalists, who are apparently promoting this, are they then not

sincere when they say they want to remove nuclear weapons from

Scotland? It seems to be a curious mixed message. As you know, I have

not got the Nationalists, I have got you, so let me ask you the

questions. You are widely seen as running a campaign which is too

negative. The Nationalists are narrowing the gap in the poll found

you are squabbling among yourselves. This campaign is going pear shaped,

isn't it? No, let's deal with the polls. All the polls show that the

people of Scotland want to stay as part of the United Kingdom. Yes

there were a couple of polls last week that said the gap was narrowing

a little. The most recent poll of all, the poll on Wednesday which

actually polled people's voting intentions on the question come

September showed that only 28% of people in Scotland were prepared to

say they were voting yes, as opposed to the 42% who were on our side of

the argument saying they wish to remain part of the UK. That poll

said women were skewing towards a yes vote and it showed that the

don't knows were beginning to skew towards a yes vote. That is why you

yourself wrote this morning that if your campaign does not get its act

together, you would be sleepwalking into a split to quote yourself. No,

to quote myself I said it was not impossible that the Nationalists

could win that. That is absolutely the case. The biggest danger for the

United Kingdom camp in this whole argument is people will look at the

polls. They show us with a healthy lead consistently. As a consequence,

they think this will not happen It can happen. I have got to tell

everybody that it could, not least because the Nationalists have an

enormous advantage in terms of the amount of money they have at their

disposal to buy momentum. They will be advertising in cinemas, in

football matches and on social media. We have got to realise what

is coming and as a consequence, we have got to get our arguments in

place and our campaign as sharp as theirs. Thank you for joining us.

Nick, this unnamed minister who gave you the story, did he or she know

what they were doing? I do not think they were sitting there wanting to

blast this out there, because the agreed government position was there

will not be a currency union, if there is a vote for independence.

But what I was managing to get hold of whether thoughts that are in the

deeper recesses of people's minds, when they are looking at the polls

which have been narrowing, or there was Alistair Carmichael quite

rightly says, the pro-UK vote is still ahead. People are looking down

the line, what would happen after the 18th of September this year not

just the next day but the next year, in those very lengthy

negotiations that would take place, when there would be a lot of moving

places on the table. You talked about Faslane, what would happen

then and that is what I managed to get hold of, that there are thoughts

about all those pieces that would be on the table. It is not surprising

that some in Westminster think that. Let's take the Shadow

Chancellor Danny Alexander at his word, they do not want a monetary

union. But if they are faced with giving the Scots a monetary union in

a post-independent Scotland, or having to remove the nuclear

submarines from Faslane, where they have nowhere else to put them,

probably except North America, there is a deal to be done. I think

whatever minister gave Nick his story is probably onto something. If

the Scots vote for independence of course a deal will be done about the

currency because it is not in London's interests to have a

rancorous relationship with Edinburgh. Even if the deal is not

done, how does one country stop another country using its. That is

different. All London can really do is prevent Scottish intervention on

the monetary policy committee. The interest rate would be set without

any regard to the Scottish interest. Even that is only a fatal problem if

the Scottish economy becomes so out of sync with the UK economy. Except

it is a problem for Scotland's financial system because if you go

down that route there is no means of injecting liquidity into the

financial system in the financial crisis. That is why they would

rather have a monetary union. Is it not remarkable to hear the Secretary

of State for Scotland here that the Nationalists are spending too much

money, when he represents a campaign which brings together all the major

parties in the UK and all the resources of the UK and he is

bleating about the Nationalists having more to spend? I did think

that was a funny line and it was in the Observer. It lays into Alex

Salmond's plucky upstart idea that he's taking on this big

establishment. I thought it was a bizarre open goal, I am losing my

football metaphors, forgive me. The polls are so in favour of a no

vote. But the trend has been going their way. We have six months left

which is not enough to close the gap. They always tell you Alex

Salmond is a strong finisher. The plucky upstarts have this funding

from a millionaire. The Better Together campaign are being

incredibly cautious about where they get their money from. They do not

want to go to the City of London Police say, give us a couple of

million. Being Energy Secretary used to be a

bit of a dawdle, especially when North Sea oil was flowing. Now it's

very much a hot potato as Ed Davey has been finding out the hard way.

High household energy bills have been top of his inbox. The big six

energy companies account for 95 of the market. Off Johnson -- Ofgem

said there had been possible tacit coordination in the timing of price

rises and ordered an investigation by the competition and markets

authorities which will look at whether the big six should be broken

up. Where does that leave investment? The boss of Centrica

made the point that you would not spend money building an extension if

you knew in two years time your home might be bulldozed. The spare

margin, that is what is left in the generating system to cope with a

surge in demand on a cold winter's night, is due to drop to

historically low levels in 2016 according to Ofgem. Normally at

around 15%, capacity could drop to 2% after the next election and that

could lead to a surge in the sale of candles. Now where is that light

switch? Energy Secretary Ed Davey, joins me

now. Oh, we have found the light switch! The gap between a peak

winter demand and generating capacity could possibly reach 2

next winter or the winter after We will keep the lights on, that is for

clear. When we came to power, energy investment had been relatively low.

The Labour Party had failed to deal with the energy deficit. From day

one we have been pushing up massively. Investment has been

billion a year. Last year was a record. Spare capacity is now

heading to 2%. Why are you allowing it to get that no? Because we have

been increasing investment massively, last was a record level,

we will be able to keep the lights on. Some of the figures you are

showing suggests we are not doing anything. We have not only done

enough in our last three years, we have put in measures to stimulate

huge amounts of extra investment. We have the healthiest pipeline

investment in our history. We will come onto investment in a minute.

None of that change is the fact that we will be close to 2% next winter

or the winter after that. We have one major power station shut down,

or a cold winter away from having major problems with energy supply.

It is still 2%. Let me explain. The figures assume we are not doing

anything but we are doing something. Look at the National Grid. They are

able to bring in energy from interconnector is because we are

connected up to Europe. They are able to create a reserve so if we

get to problems, they will have a mothballed plant they can bring on.

You have not agreed with anybody on that. The decision was taken last

July. But no supplier has agreed to under mothball its plant. We would

not expect them to do that yet. Our plan is in place. On time, on

schedule, as we already thought it would be. But you have not got a

single agreement with a power supply who has mothballed plant to on the

ball it. We did not expect to. Our plan is in me National Grid will do

an election to allow those plants to come on. There is a huge amount of

interest. There are gigawatts of power that can come in to come on.

There is a huge amount of interest. There are gigawatts of power that

can come into that auction and we are not other measures we can take

and that is just in the short term. We have a plan for the medium-term.

We will be running the first auction for new capacity. The final decision

will be taken and we have learned lessons from what they do in North

America and other European countries so we can stay minute mothballed

plants and new plants to be built. I am absolutely clear there is not a

problem. You only build 9000 megawatts of new capacity from

2011-13. You have closed almost 22,000 megawatts. Why would you be

so cavalier with a nation's power supply? The last Government was

cavalier because we knew those figures are happening because we've

known for a long time a lot of power plants were coming to the end of

their life, coal power plants, nuclear power plants, and we had to

increase the rate of investment but we... That shows clearly you are

closing twice as much, you have to date, closed twice as much as you

have opened, hence the lack of spare capacity. We knew a lot of them are

coming back for the last Labour Government knew. We have increased

the new so that's increasing significantly, far faster than under

the last Government but also remember, you were very wrong at the

beginning of your clip, margins at 15% are very own usual. They are

historically high. The average margin was 25%. That was wasting a

huge amount of money. But since privatisation, we've had margins

between 5% and 10%. Normally, high margins historically, which is

costly. Now we will have historically low margins. People

have to pay for that, so we make sure the lights stay on, we have a

short-term policy I have described to you, and medium-term policy and a

long-term policy. The long-term policy comes huge investment between

nuclear and optional, policy comes huge investment between

on. Ofgem, Independent, says the chance of blackouts by 2016 has

increased fourfold under your watch. What they say, if you read the

report, if we did nothing, they would be problems. But we have been

working with Ofgem. We have been working with National Grid, and we

have agreed that there will be a reserve capacity which can come on

if we get to the peak for the Best not just on the supply side but

demand and into connectors. You talk about industry having to move to

off-peak times. We say, they are prepared to that you paid for it,

and it makes commercial sense for them, it's a sensible thing for the

Wii will pay them to move to off-peak. You have huge diesel parks

for the you talk as if that something new but it's been around

for a long time for the 200 these contracts out there. We want to

expand that. You have hundreds of diesel generators to click into

haven't you? There's a whole range of generators. Diesel generation,

dirty fuel. There's a of mothballed gas which can come. If you look at

the increase of the independent generators, many companies, a range

of power companies who are building a new power station and want to

build new ones. This is a healthy situation. You say you made over 100

billion new investment between now and the end of the decade to restore

capacity and meet renewable targets. Now you have referred the

Big Six to the competition commission, how much of that to

expect to come from them? We will see what the market delivers. We

have always expected independent generators to do a lot more than is

happening in the past. How much from the Big Six? It's not for me to say

it's going to be best from that company. The real interest is we

have huge amounts of companies wanting to invest. If you look at

independent analysis, they say Britain is one of the best places to

invest in energy in the world. We are the worldly do in offshore

wind, one of the best for renewables, one of the only

countries getting nuclear power stations. Rather than the bleaker

picture you're painting, the reverse is the case. We are seeing an

investment renaissance. You say that. Let me give you some facts.

Under this Government, only one gas plant has been under construction,

only one started under your watch for the others were done under

Labour. You have none in the pipeline. The Big Six has pulled

back from further investment including new offshore wind

investment and none of what you re talking about will come before 020

anyway. That's simply not true. The balance reserves I've talked about,

the reserve planned: Making sure the mothballed plant could come on, I

capacity market incentivising new power, will happen way before 2 20,

so that's not true. But doesn't answer the extra capacity. You have

no answer between now and the end of this decade. We have three answers.

Let me repeat them for you. I said permanent, not the short-term ones

you are putting in place to try to do with spare capacity. We have a

short-term plan, of course, that's very sensible. Medium-term plan

auctioning for new power stations. That can lead to both mothballed

plant and when you plant, permanent plant being built, and the long term

plan, to stimulator long-term investment, some of which will be

built and come online way before the end of the decade. I'm afraid, it's

a far rosier picture than your painting. It's also far more

expensive, too. Let's look at how you are replacing relatively cheap

energy with much more expensive sources of energy. Wholesale prices

is ?50 per megawatt. You have done a deal with EDF, nuclear, ?92 50. You

have indexed it for 30 years at 2012 prices.

All of that puts up our bills. First of all, the support of the low

Carbon is just 4% on bills. What has been driving peoples bills over the

last decade has been wholesale gas prices. No one knows what guys

prices are going to be in the future -- gas prices. When you look at the

Ukraine and other market indicators, many people are worried that by the

time nuclear power stations come online for example, the price of gas

could be significantly higher. You have indexed linked that for them by

the time you get any power from this, it'll be up to ?125 per

megawatt hour. The price of gas been going up far higher. Not recently.

Despite Iran, Ukraine, Libya, not recently. The long-term forecast,

Andrew, it's going to go higher but more importantly than that, this is

an area we could disagree on but it's very important that power

plants pay the cost of pollution. In those prizes, all of those prices

except the wholesale out a steep price, you have those power stations

paying the cost of air pollution. If gas and coal where paying the proper

carbon price, you would see nuclear and renewables as competitive. It's

very important that we ensure that power plants pay the cost of the

pollution. When you were last on this programme to talk about this in

May 2012, you said that the price of offshore wind was coming down fast.

You told me it would be down by 30% in the next few years. That figure

is 155, and for the deeper stuff, it's going to be ?165. That's the

first year of a limit control framework which had it coming down.

If you talk to many companies, Siemens had invested with their

partners, ?310 million with two new factories. They are talking about

lower prices because what they are saying to me is that, rather than

the 30% cost reductions I talked about, I was wrong, they are

targeting 40%. You said prices would come down 30% in two years for that

that was 2012 and they have gone higher. I absolutely did not say

that. Your exact quote was 30% in the next few years. Your exact few

years. You said two years, I sell a few years. I haven't changed a

single moment that you said two years, I said a few years. That s

what we are projecting. They will come down. You have to invest in

technology. Let me give you this example. When people invest in

mobile phones to start off with they were expensive, and they were

clunky and the costs were going down for the one final question. You put

the Big Six into investigation because they made a 5% return on

investment and you're done a deal with EDF, nuclear power, which will

guarantee them a return of 10% 15% every year for 30 years. Doesn't

that underline the shambles of your energy policy? You have mixed up two

separate things. The 5% Ofgem are talking about is on the supply

retail side. The percentage you quoted for EDF is in the wholesale

side of two different markets. It's the same return. It's not. You are

comparing apples and pears, dangerous thing to do. You have to

do have a high return but in the retail market, with a 5% stake,

there is less risk, says a low return. Ed Davey, I'm sorry we

haven't got more time. Thank you. Have me back. We will. Whatever

happened to the BNP? The far right party looked as if it was on the

verge of a major breakthrough not so long ago. Now it seems to be going

nowhere. In a moment we'll be speaking to the party's press

officer, Simon Derby. But first here's Giles. His report contains

some flash photography. For a moment in 2009 Nick Griffin and the BNP had

a spring in their step, smiling at their success of winning two seats

in the European Parliament. They already were the second largest

party in a London council and had a London Assembly seat. Despite

concerns from mainstream parties their vote was up. Our vote

increased up to 943,000. Savouring success was brief that morning as

anti-far right protestors invaded and egged the press conference and

forced the BNP MEPs into a hasty retreat. What is more significant is

that, in the years since, that retreat has been matched internally,

electorally and in the minds of those who had given them that vote.

For a number of years they were performing better than the UK

Independence Party and other smaller parties like the Greens and respect.

The problem for the BNP if they didn't make any inroads into other

groups, they didn't go into the middle class, the young, they didn't

go into women and ethnic minorities for obvious reasons. So the party

was quickly handicapped from the outset. Not that you would have

known that at the outset. In 20 6 in Barking and Dagenham, the party won

12 council seats against a back drop of discontent with the ruling Labour

council and Government and picking up on immigration and housing

concerns in the borough. It's because of all the different

nationality people moving in the area, they are taking over

everything. My Nan and grandad lived there all their lives. I thought I

would vote for BNP. Hopefully, yeah, they will get elected over here

When I came to Barking, Dagenham and Redbridge in 2006, the BNP with a

second largest party in one of the local councils. You can even find

non-white people who voted BNP. Now they have no counsellors, and even

though can when you talk to people, you will find among the older white

working-class population concerned that the BNP claim to represent

everyone says they are nowhere. So what happened to that about? On

behalf of all the people in Britain, we in Barking have not just beaten,

that we have smashed the attempt of extremist outsiders. The local

Labour MP was as clear in 2010 as she is now. I always knew if we

could manage to ensure that wasn't a single BNP councillor left on the

council and I won my seat, it would stop the process of disintegration.

But what beat the BNP here in 2 10 was a mobilisation of the Labour

vote. And today it is not hard to find the same discontent over the

same issues. It's just finding a new political home. A couple of years

ago, I used to vote Labour. Obviously, they haven't done nothing

around here as much now, with jobs and unemployment, and housing and

stuff like that about, basically, BNP ain't around here no more. Now

it's more about UKIP and I believe that these UKIP are saying are true.

If I thought BNP would make the difference, I would vote but is not

in the people behind them. They all get bandaged with the same brush.

I'm going to vote UKIP because BNP didn't get anywhere. What they say

in UKIP, with a bit of luck, they will get somewhere. It's not racist

but it's just that our kids haven't got jobs. Nick Griffin's dislike of

UKIP is mutual but his once fellow MEP Andrew Brons who's now left the

party issued a statement to this programme saying BNP failure is

closer to home post 2010. It was after that election discontent arose

amongst sections of the membership. Those members who left or were

thrown out by Nick Griffin had already felt let down by his

appearance on Question Time. It was a national platform for the BNP

something they felt they had the right to through electoral success.

This was no big breakthrough moment for Griffin, unlike it was for John

Marina pen when he appeared on national television in France. He

went on to mobilise a national force. Despite there being some

voters tuned to their message, for the BNP, becoming such a force here

has never looked quite so difficult. And Simon Derby from the BNP joins

me now. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It was not long ago you

had 55 councillors up and down the land, you now have two. You are on

the brink of extinction. That is not true. I have watched the film. It is

very negative as I would expect The party has faced a few problems. The

main thing to bear in mind is that the issues, the problems the country

faces have gone away. We won nearly a million votes in the European

elections. We brought that mandate to the establishment and we were

denied. Let's face it, we would -- were denied any opportunity to take

place in the political apparatus. You have been destroyed by a pincer

movement. UKIP has taken away or more respectable voters and the EDL

is better at anti-Muslim protests and street thuggery. The EDL is not

a political party. I take your point about UKIP. The power structure took

a look at us and so we were a threat to power. We were not making this

stuff up, we meant it and they have co-opted our message. This shameless

promotion of UKIP, you have evenly had him presenting the weather on

this programme. That is unbelievable. That was a joke.

Across Europe, in France, your sister party the National front will

probably do very well. You can see the rise of the far right across

Western Europe so why are you in decline? We are not far right, I

reject that label. How would you describe yourselves nationalists and

Patriots. Why are you in decline and other similar parties to yours are

on the rise? You mentioned Barking and it is very interesting because I

was involved in that campaign. What Margaret Hodge and her Labour Party

did, they replaced the white indigenous population in Barking and

Dagenham with Africans, that is how they won that election. For that was

true, you would be doing well elsewhere. You have now got a leader

who is declared bankrupt and your party is heading for bankruptcy.

No, it is not. It is over. You would like that. What I would like is

irrelevant. Your membership is in deep decline. All parties have highs

and lows. In 2009 they said it is no way you will win any seats in the

European election. We did. And then you lost them. Parties win and lose

seats. The Lib Dems will be annihilated. You deny you are far

right. People used to say the BNP were neo-Nazis. Then Nick Griffin

appeared with Golden Dawn. They are not neo-Nazis, they are Nazis. It is

part and parcel of being in politics. You have to appear with

them? Of course we do, we have to speak to ordinary people. I am

perfectly happy speaking to you at the BBC, the BBC have a terrible

reputation but I am happy to be here. Mr Griffin has asked me, when

will the BBC apologised for trying to put him in prison twice, merely

for exposing a Muslim scandal. Why can't Nick Griffin appear on TV and

self? He would not appear. He was in Syria. He literally flew out to

Damascus and prevented a war. We decided we would not interfere in

Syria. The BBC never covered that. Please do not make out we are just

an ordinary political party you cover like everybody else. It is

completely different. All the signs are, membership, performance at the

polls, performance at elections, the problem with your leadership is you

are now going the way of the National front, heading for

oblivion. As I said to you before, that may be the case, if all the

problems we had not highlighted and how we got a huge vote so many years

ago, six years ago now, five years ago, in 2009, if they were not

around. These things are only going to get worse. We are looking at a

prototype Islamic republic that is going to be set up in this country.

That will lead to huge problems. Only the British National Party are

prepared to say that and deal with it. Word leaked out that I was doing

this interview with you before the weekend. Isn't it a sign of how

irrelevant you now are that not a single person has turned up at New

Broadcasting House this morning to protest? Used to be hundreds would

turn up when we said the BNP were on. That is the left for you, they

put the clocks forward and they could not be bothered to get out of

bed. I think they are still in bed. Thank you.

You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in

Scotland who leave us now for Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up here in

20 minutes, the Hello once again from the Mhdlands.

I'm Patrick Burns. And we h`ve a real high octane line`up for you

this week. Tuned`up. Turbo`charged. A Land Rover and a Jaguar, raring to

go. Jack Dromey, Shadow Polhce Minister, the Labour MP for

Birmingham Erdington, home of the Castle Bromwich Jaguar plant. Lorely

Burt, Danny Alexander's Parliamentary Private Secretary

Liberal Democrat MP for Solhhull, where the Land Rovers come from

Very warm welcome to you both. And we're definitely going

'off`road' right from the start with with our own distinctlx

mud`spattered version of those televised 'EU Debates'. Comhng up on

Wednesday, Stage Two of the 'Nick and Nigel' rally. Now the Mhdlands

MEP Phil Bennion, Number Ond on the Liberal Democrats' ticket for May's

elections here, has challenged his UKIP counterpart Jill Seymotr to a

debate with him. We've engineered our own digitally`enhanced preview

of how their encounter might look. UKIP has really moved forward, we

have a cross`section of polhcies now. Over the last six months, our

poll ratings have risen agahn. UKIP has a cross`section of thosd people

who feel disenchanted with politics. UKIP will get more votes but not

more seats. I disagree. Isn't it amazing what you can do with clips.

Why would I want to debate with someone who is not going to have a

job after May? With all the main parties taking part, what do you say

about Jill Seymour? I think, actually, Jack and I agree on this

one. It is most important that UKIP poison is not allowed to pervade the

West Midlands. There are 3 lillion jobs nationally at stake. These are

associated with our membership of the European Union. It is mtch

better to be in there fighthng than standing on the outside. Thdre is a

perception that Nigel Faragd got the better of that one. That is a matter

of perception. Nick made a very good case for jobs, Ross parity, this

country # prosperity. Labour do not put their head above the potnd. You

are just going to be sitting there saying, I agree with Nick, `ren t

you? I never thought I'd sax this but I do agree with Nick. Wd have

got a world`class and incre`singly successful automotive industry in

Britain. Key to that is inw`rd investment. Key to inward investment

is continuing membership of the European Union. Were we to leave the

European Union, it would put at risk tens of thousands of jobs in the

automotive sector. Where I was on Friday, young people working with

Jaguar Land Rover, I think ht would be economic suicide were we to leave

the European Union. That is far too much agreement. We must end it

there. And The European Union: In or Out is

live on Wednesday evening at 7pm on BBC Two. Coming up: How six`into`one

could go. Warwickshire's cotncils may shed a tier for local

government. "But you can't bin our local services," warn town hall

leaders. It's Much Ado about 'going unitary' in 'Shakespeare's county'.

Alas, poor Warwick. But before that, an exclusive BBC

investigation shows thousands of people have gone into arrears in our

part of the country, since the controversial housing benefht

changes came`in a year ago. A survey of 32 local authorities and housing

associations has revealed jtst over 58 thousand people have been

affected by the changes durhng the last 12 months. Out of thosd, nearly

14,000 have found their accounts going into arrears for the first

time. And more than 2,000 h`ve been served with eviction notices. The

research also shows that only a small number of tenants havd moved

as a result of changes, which are intended to free`up spare rooms and

create mobility in the houshng market. Our BBC Stoke Polithcal

Reporter Phil McCann has bedn talking to some of the people most

directly concerned. Mark Taylor has a two`bedroom flats

near Newcastle`under`Lyme. His housing benefit has been cut by

nearly 14% because of the ndw rules. He does not want to love He

is divorced and wants to sp`re room for when his children visit. ?1 39

a week does not sound a lot. You have got to save. What comes first?

The food or your rent? I have got to feed myself and my children. Council

tenants in the Midlands havd been affected, with thousands of people

being told they have too many bedrooms under the government's new

size criteria, known as the bedroom tax. One of the main reasons for the

reforms was to try to free tp spare bedrooms. Partly because of a

shortage of smaller homes. Housing associations are having to build new

ones, like this development in Stone in Staffordshire. The reforls have

caused some of those affectdd to budget better and change thdir

priorities. It was a case of move to one bedroom and not accommodate your

kids, or steamer you are, struggle and you get to keep your kids. ``

state where you are. The fact is, lots of households have not been hit

by the changes at all. The government says the new system is

fairer and provides more incentive for people to find work.

Phil McCann. And the Work and Pensions Department tell us

'vulnerable' housing benefit claimants are protected by ` ?3 5

million fund across this ye`r and next. They say these changes are

saving taxpayers ?1 million a day. But on the evidence of that, these

measures are not getting extra mobility into the housing m`rket,

they are not freeing accommodation, all they are doing is adding to the

hardship and pain for peopld? Certainly my own party and

government pushed very hard for the additional money, we went from 20

million in help with the most distressed people, right up to 180

million this year. And I agree. It is hard. But it is hard to have 1.7

million people waiting for housing, and of those, 240,000 of exhsting

tenants are overcrowded. We must try to do something, but we must try

compassionately as well if we can. You became a police shadow linister,

your party's position on thhs general issue was well`known. Surely

there is an obligation to t`xpayers. Some people may not afford to put

extra bedrooms in their houses? This is an unfair and iniquitous tax It

is driving some people to sticide, like here in Birmingham. Thd problem

as there are not the one`bedroom flats available. In Birmingham,

13,000 were hit, if you then move them into the private rented sector,

it costs more on housing benefit, ?1600 a year. Also what is happening

is that councils and housing associations are having to plan to

build fewer homes because of mounting bad debt. This tax, once in

a generation there is a tax so bad that the next generation looks back

and says, why do they do it? We will scrap the bedroom tax. I thhnk it is

right that there are not sufficient houses, but under Labour, 471,0 0

social homes were lost. At least under this government, we whll end

up with more homes. Why impose a retrospective tax creating the kind

of heartache and hardship that it is? I have to say this, I

fundamentally disagree with her on this. Her president voted whth us to

scrap the bedroom tax. I hope you will think again, because this tax,

the sooner it is history thd better. Is it one where the Conserv`tives

and the Liberal Democrats khds let? `` could split? It is fair to say

that anything that doesn't show compassion or fairness is something

that concerns the Liberal Ddmocrats. Nevertheless, we have incre`sed the

amount of help that is available. I am very sorry to learn that a lot of

councils are not using this money to its full effect. I hope there is no

counsel out there doing that for political purposes at the expense of

people who could have benefhted from the extra help the government has

made available. We have been talking to the National Housing Feddration.

They say it is economic lien socially incoherent and it has got

to go. `` economic leak and socially incoherent. The problem is that

anybody who goes into private rented accommodation does not get spare

rooms paid for. A lot of people feel that is unfair. But if the

accommodation is unavailabld, how can you say to people hit bx the

bedroom tax, two thirds of whom are disabled, where there is no

accommodation alternatively, I am sorry, pay more. That is catsing

painful distress. We just h`ve to build those additional housds, I

would very much like to hopd... It does not matter what party xou are,

we have got to work together. Millions of people need homds and

need them now. Thank you both. Are we about to see the

transformation of Town Hall politics in Warwickshire? The county council

leader wants the two`tier sdt`up of county and district councils

replaced by a single all`purpose, all`powerful 'unitary' authority.

That's the system they alre`dy have in places like Herefordshird and

Shropshire. It's reckoned the change could save as much as ?68 mhllion

over the next five years. Btt as our BBC Coventry and Warwickshire

Political reporter Sian Grzdsczyk explains, the idea's being fiercely

opposed. These men have been collecthng waste

for years on behalf of Warwhck district Council. These men have

been disposing of the town's waste for just as long. They are dmployed

by Warwickshire county council. But all of this could change. There

could be a revolution on thd way which would see all of

Warwickshire's council 's Bdnd. At the moment there are six cotncils in

Warwickshire, but if they ddcide to go unitary they could scrap all of

them and replace them with just one. Or they could opt to split the

county in two. Over in Nune`ton and Bedworth, the thought of abolishing

this council is hard not to stomach for its leader. It is nothing to do

with saving money. It is about the high salaries they pay to some of

their senior officers and councillors, while the district are

trained to save money all around the county. So is it a power gr`b?

Absolutely not, of course it isn't. I am effectively ceasing thhs

organisation. As far as I'm concerned, I could be exit hnto the

sunset tomorrow. So why are you so seriously considering Warwickshire

becoming unitary? We had re`l big cost challenges ahead of us. This is

the tsunami of cost that is going to hit us. If we do not start trying to

work out how we're going to run our business now? We will be ovdrwhelmed

by it. Back at the tip, there was a mixed response to the idea. I would

like to know more about it before I made a final decision. It would

depend how much money it wotld save. As far as I can see, there hs no

problem. It will be just thd same. I shouldn't imagine it would be a

problem. This idea has been recycled many times before. Herefordshire

abolished its district councils back in 1998. My personal view is that in

the light of the problems all councils are facing, it is

inevitable. And we should elbrace it with open arms and do a good job of

it. It can be done. But is this discussion a waste of time given

that Eric Pickles things thd idea of local government reorganisation is a

load of rubbish. Sian Grzeszczyk. And we're `lso

joined here today by the Conservative leader of our largest

upper`tier county council. Staffordshire has a populathon of

over 800,000 with no fewer than eight lower`tier district councils.

Philip Atkins has been on the county council since 1987 and becale

chairman of West Midlands Councils four years ago. It has been wound up

since, actually. Looking at that report and senior colleague in

Herefordshire seeing it as inevitable moving to unitarx, they

want to base it all at district level. Classic county counchl 's

like yours are exiting into the sunset? Far from it. There hs a very

complex environment out there in public service. The big prize is

where county council 's work with the National Health Service,

community services, the polhce and fire, in delivering the real

services that people probably do not see on a day`to`day basis.

Children's services, adult care getting the infrastructure right on

major projects like the motorway junction we are building. There is a

whole raft of partnerships. Besides the eighth district, we havd five

clinical commissioning groups as well as working closely with

Stoke`on`Trent. No unitary hn Staffordshire, as far as yot're

concerned? Certainly not, it would be a distraction from the t`sks we

have at hand at the moment. You could do those savings, you could

share chief executive is, as they do in Redditch and Bromsgrove, you

could have joint ventures where they work together with other cotncils.

We are doing joint ventures with county councils outside of the West

Midlands. It seems there is a trade`off implicit in the rdport.

You get economies of scale on one side, on the other side there are

questions of accountability. Quite often, the real cost savings can be

at a local level because people themselves know what servicds they

require. They are the ones that they value, and quite often we fhnd you

can save money by putting the actual money as locally as you possibly

can. Jack, where do you stand on this? These are the district

authorities, where Labour h`ve their power base in the big counthes. The

big problem facing local government, is central government, I agree with

Philip. We need to work tow`rds greater collaboration betwedn

councils. Hearing Greater Birmingham, we are moving down the

path of driving local development. The idea that you stop at a time

like this, taken great deal of time and spend a great deal of money on

local government reorganisation is neither necessary nor appropriate.

As a party that believes in localism, I think it is verx much up

to local authorities to makd those decisions for themselves.

Voluntarily. They should decide how they want to run things and people

should decide how they want it to be run. If you think of Cheltenham the

one Liberal Democrat controlled local authority in this part of the

country, it is a district. Xou would really struggled to get over or

control of any larger unitary countywide authority. Indeed. Jack

and I, as members of metropolitan boroughs, all of these things tend

to be a little bit of a mystery to us. The public are often confused by

who does what. The question to you, Philip, as the apostle of slarter

working and merging partnerships, you cannot deal with the sort of

pressures, the tsunami comic, by pursuing your tactics that something

structural needs to happen? I still believe we can do it as we `re doing

it. We have created the largest integrated community health care

trust in the country. It has got a turnover of ?350 million. Wd have

formed an education support service working with other councils which is

also saving money. There ard lots of ways that you can work with others

within your boundaries, and outside them, to save money, and retain that

democratic accountability at the ballot box. Quickly render table

from each of you, should Warwickshire do it? It is up to

Warwickshire. We are not gohng to impose on Warwickshire a solution. I

cannot disagree with Jack at all. It is up to the people who are on the

ground to know what they're talking about. It is up to Warwickshire and

all of its councils. Thank xou to all of you, and thank you, Philip.

It is up to Warwickshire. Now our regular round`up of the polhtical

week in the Midlands in 60 seconds. It's brought to us today by our BBC

Coventry and Warwickshire Drivetime presenter Phil Upton.

The Chancellor visited Banks's brewery in Wolverhampton to

celebrate knocking a penny of a pint of beer in the budget. Parent

company Marston's announced plans to create 3,000 new jobs. Hundreds of

schools across the Midlands closed for the day and pupils had lessons

disrupted as members of the NUT joined a strike over pay, pdnsions

and conditions. The link between HS1 and HS2 has

been axed, meaning no direct trains from the Midlands via the Channel

Tunnel. Plans to speed up construction of the line from

Birmingham to Crewe have bedn given the thumbs up though, cutting

journey times to all points north! Quicker to Manchester, Liverpool and

Scotland. Elsewhere on the railways London

Midland trains is to cut around a third of its staff. One hundred and

fifty back office jobs are going, one hundred of them at the company's

headquarters in Birmingham. And an Independent Commissioner has

been appointed to oversee Children's Services in Birmingham. The

department has been rated 'inadequate' for the last four

years. But the threat remains that the city

could be stripped of its responsibilities. As a Birmhngham

MP, it is not quite a takeover but it is not far off, is it? It's a

collaboration between government and Birmingham City Council. Wh`t was

very welcome on Thursday was that all three political parties came

together to say there has bden ten years of failure in Birmingham,

letting down some of the most vulnerable children in our city it

is absolutely right, therefore, that there is no fears focus putting what

had been wrong in the past right. The council has made some rdal

progress, but we need to make further progress still at the next

stages. Yes, absolutely, thd children have got to come fhrst I

know sterling efforts have been made, it clearly hasn't reached the

mark yet. We have got to take every step we can to help the children. Is

it possible that if it improves the Lord will get the credit, and if it

doesn't, Birmingham will get the blame? I don't care, honestly. What

matters is the children of Birmingham. If you have a sdnsible

collaboration between counchl and government, and we put the children

of Birmingham first, that is a good thing. I totally agree with Jack. We

have had too much agreement today. Is it a question of resourcds? It

would, if we have suddenly lade these cuts, but this is over a long

period of time. In part it hs about resources. It is also about

deep`seated structural problems My thanks to Lorely Burt and Jack

Dromey. Tomorrow evening thd Commons will debate a question we t`lked

about on this programme a couple of weeks ago, and touched on again

today: greenfield housing developments. It'll be introduced by

Walsall South's Labour MP V`lerie Vaz. She asks why houses ard being

built in green spaces, when there's land within Walsall for another

twelve years, where she says the real need is for affordable and

social housing. This, though, is where we rejoin Andrew Neil.

boundaries. Sorry, run out of time. Thanks very much indeed. Andrew

back to you. Now let's get more from our

political panel. If the BNP finished? They were never

spectacularly successful to begin with but one of my childhood

memories was a huge fuss in London about the fact that they won a few

council seat on the Isle of dogs back in 1993. That was enough to

cause a panic. As if they are falling from a great tit and I think

the big difference with the National front in France is that they are

building on decades of successful that they finished second in the

presence of elections in 2002, I think. And, even in the 60s, they

were versions of their politics So they are building on a lot whereas

the BNP are working with incredibly few raw materials in this country.

It is interesting that the BNP does seem to be in decline in terms of

its membership and financially, but in France, the far right party, not

as far right as the BNP, but pretty far right, will probably do well in

the second round of the French local elections. You could say the same

about Golden Dawn in Greece. Parties prosper when the picture is

pre-rolled for them. If mainstream parties talk endlessly about

immigration, saying you cannot get a council house because it has gone to

an immigrant instead of saying it is because there are not enough council

houses, that creates the conditions in which the far right can thrive.

We are lucky that all the members of the BNP fell out with each other. As

extreme members of the far right and left do. You can see that with the

comedian in France, he has got a lot of support from people on the left

as well. I asked Simon Derby was here victim of a pincer movement

that UKIP were taken away voters and EDL has captured the Street protest.

Yes, and Giles still not mention that the Labour Party has got its

act together. They got the act together in Dagenham. Margaret Hodge

and Jon Cruddas did a very good job. I think UKIP would say, not a racist

party but they are picking up votes from people who would once have

voted BNP. But it is interesting the difference between Britain and

France. Why is it that the Front Nationale came second in 2002 when

they are not far right? I think they were on a five-year cycle because

the next election was 2007. 200 they came second when Jean-Marie Le

Pen came second. They are not as far right as the BNP. Marine has put

them -- cleaned them up a bit. Diplomatically there is a much

harder vote which spreads further across the electorate in France than

there is in this country. This is a much more tolerant country. If

Marine Le Pen does well today, she will not win that many because the

centre-right and centre-left will always gang up against terror in the

second round, but it sets the tone for the European elections. It does

and for the next French presidential election as well. I think what she's

doing masterfully is combining a far right politics with what you might

call a far left economic politics. She's not just picking up votes from

xenophobes, she is picking up votes from who feel victimised from

globalisation. They are people who would be voting for socialists but

are put off by the current president. That is what I do not

think the British far right parties have been able to do. You sort Simon

Derby try to tell you that the BNP are not far right party. I think he

was going to say if you look at issues of protectionism, standing up

against globalisation, they are quite statist. That is where the

phrase National Socialist comes from. That is why a little bit of

electoral success is often a killer for far right parties. They get a

few council seats and then they are rubbish. They are not getting

people's bins collected so they become part of the system that

people were voting against in the first place. Lets go on to the

Labour Party. If you are a Labour Party supporter and you want to be

cheered up, you pick up the Sunday Times where you see a poll where the

leader is up to seven points. If you are Tory Lib Dem and you want to be

cheered up, you pick up the Observer, the left-wing paper, where

the Labour leader is still 1%. I have read in the paper that there is

quite a lot of of the record briefings going on at the top of the

Labour Party. Give us a sense of the mood. Clearly, they are unsettled.

One pol looks OK but there has been a run of polls where there is a lead

over the Tories which is closing. There are worrying number of people

who are what are called the 35s and they are people who thought all the

Labour Party needs to do is sit still because there are a number of

Liberal Democrat voters who hate the coalition. Because the Conservatives

did not get through the boundary changes they needed to win, we can

sit tight and it will all be fine. What a few wise old heads are

concerned about is they feel this has a feel of 1987 about it when the

Labour Party was united. They had a very good leader. The leader was

impressive, the party was united and then what happened? They met the

British people and an election. The British people said, terribly sorry,

you are not occupying the party political territory where we will

vote for you. There are some people from the Blair era who say it feels

a bit complacent and there may be a bit of a shock when they meet the

voters. We talk about people being unsettled but Ed Miliband is not

unsettled. His defining characteristic is you might call it

steadiness or you might call it a lack of agility. He could not

respond to the pension stuff in the budget which was thrown at him. But

he's very good at separating the signal from the noise. They may

think this will all change in me. The Tories may be on the back foot

after the European elections. He has the ability to set the political

weather. He did it with the price freeze. There is no doubt that Mr

Davey would not be referring these energy companies to the competition

authorities if it had not been for that speech by the Labour leader.

And we read today he has come up with another policy which will be

attention grabbing to cut student tuition fees. It is easy to forget

that before he announced the price freeze he was in as much vertical

trouble as he is now. I think the Labour poll lead will expand up to

five or 6% by the summer, assuming the Tories do badly. The question

is, is five or 6% enough? Nick through the analogy with 1987. This

reminds me of the Conservatives in 2009/10. You have a steadily sinking

poll lead, differences in what campaign they should be running and

personal animosity behind the scenes. It led to them throwing away

an election which seemed to be winnable. There is an important

difference with the 1980s which was because you did not know when the

election would be. Will it be in 87 or 88? They do not need to make up

their mind until next year. What they are telling the pollsters now,

we do not like this government because of course, you do not like

the government. But next January or February they will be making up

their minds. Is there a lot of animosity among the leading Labour

figures behind-the-scenes? It must be personal or tactical because

there are not big ideological differences between them, is there?

Yes and no. What is striking is how little support Miliband gets from

the shadow cabinet. He does not have outriders. That has been a

continuous theme. Said he feels he is on his own? That they feel they

do not get support from him. There was a column by Jenni Russell saying

he is distant and detached. And Andrew Walmsley touched on this in

the Observer. One of the divisions is Ed versus Ed. There is a terrible

structural problem between those two. It is a real problem. Ed

Miliband believes Ed Balls has not done enough to get economic red

ability. Ed Balls believes Ed Miliband is making airy fairy

speeches and it will not cut with the electorate. Neither Mr Cameron

nor Mr Miller band took part in the debate which happened earlier this

week between the Lib Dems and UKIP. We have got another one coming up on

the BBC on Wednesday night. Let s remind ourselves of what happened in

last week's debate. I will ask Nick to open the batting.

We are better off in Europe... Frankly not working any more. A

referendum on Europe. I agree with you. I agree with you. If you can

read the small print. Pull up the drawbridge, pool drawbridge up. . We

have 485 million people... It is simply not true! Not true. Not true.

Not true. Identical with Nick. I don't agree with Nick. Based on

facts, facts, the facts, facts, the facts... Thank God we did not listen

to you. The food is getting better here. Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. You

have never had a proper job. Great not little England. Good night.

I think it is seven o'clock BBC Two. Helen, what was the outcome of that

and how do we mark our card for this week? It was not a great time for

pundits. Everybody called the debate for Nick and then they said

actually, we think it has gone the other way. Consensus emerged later

on that Nick Clegg made a difficult argument. I think the most important

thing Nigel Farage said was he distinguished out the immigration

policy by saying we're not just closing day over, we want people to

come, we just do not want mass EU immigration. That is an important

thing for him to say to get away from the echoes of the far right. I

suspect Nick Clegg will not ask us to read the small print. That was 11

turn he took. It compounded his reputation for being sneaky. I

slightly disagree about the pundits. I say this as someone who thought

far it would win. -- Nigel Farage would win. The fact that the public

disagree with you and the public favoured Nigel Farage does not mean

the public were wrong. The question is, who is going to tune in for the

second one? What is the answer to that? Phil Collins argument is a man

who is on 8% is fantastic. It is a binary choice in this debate.

Clearly they need to brush up on opposite areas. Nigel Farage needs

to brush up on facts and Nick Clegg needs to brush up on the motions

because he did not connect very well. Where Nick Clegg may go after

Nigel Farage is when the -- when he said the EU has blood on its hands

with Ukraine. He then came back to talk about the vanity of EU foreign

policy and said European Union had made what was going on in Syria

worse. It is one thing to say I do not think the UK should be part of

the joint European foreign policy, it is part of another thing to say

that Europe which will act with or without the UK is responsible for

blood on the streets of Kiev and also responsible for exacerbating

the Civil War in Syria. Maybe an hour is too long for Nigel Farage's

shtick? That may be the case but Nick Clegg has precedence. He does

that show and he has had to deal with the worst thing with dealing

with what is thrown at him so he has honed his view consistently. We will

see what happens in part two. That's all for this week. The Daily

Politics is on BBC Two at lunchtime every day this week. I'll be here

next week at the usual time of 1 o'clock. Remember if it's Sunday,

it's the Sunday Politics.