12/03/2017 Sunday Politics West Midlands


12/03/2017

Andrew Neil and Patrick Burns with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew discusses the Brexit bill with UKIP's Nigel Farage and Conservative MP Anna Soubry.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:34.:00:39.

David Davis tells MPs to leave the Brexit bill untouched,

:00:40.:00:43.

ahead of a week which could see Britain begin the process

:00:44.:00:46.

We'll talk to a Tory rebel and Ukip's Nigel Farage.

:00:47.:00:51.

Phillip Hammond's first budget hit the rocks thanks to a tax rise

:00:52.:00:53.

But how should we tax those who work for themselves?

:00:54.:01:02.

And remember Donald Trump's claim that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:03.:01:04.

We'll talk to the former Tory MP who set the whole story rolling.

:01:05.:01:12.

And in the Midlands, we're talking rubbish today.

:01:13.:01:15.

Fly-tipping is getting worse and it's costing

:01:16.:01:18.

millions to clear it up. Time to get tough, perhaps?

:01:19.:01:21.

And joining me for all of that, three self-employed journalists

:01:22.:01:32.

who definitely don't deserve a tax break.

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It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme with all the carefree

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abandon of Katie Hopkins before a libel trial.

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BBC lawyers have suddenly got nervous!

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So first today, the government is gearing up to trigger Article 50,

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perhaps in the next 48 hours, and start negotiating Britain's

:01:55.:01:57.

Much has been written about the prospect of the Commons

:01:58.:02:00.

getting a "meaningful vote" on the deal Britain negotiates.

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Brexit Secretary David Davis was on the Andrew Marr programme

:02:03.:02:05.

earlier this morning and he was asked what happens

:02:06.:02:07.

Well, that is what is called the most favoured nation status deal

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There we go out, as it were, on WTO rules.

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That is why of course we do the contingency planning, to make

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The British people decided on June the 23rd last year

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My job, and the job of the government, is to make

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the terms on which that happens as beneficial as possible.

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There we have it, clearly, either Parliament votes for the deal when

:02:49.:02:55.

it is done or it out on World Trade Organisation rules. That's what the

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government means by a meaningful vote.

:03:00.:03:01.

I think we get over obsessed about whether there will be a legal right

:03:02.:03:07.

for Parliament to have a vote. If there is no deal or a bad deal, I

:03:08.:03:11.

think it would be politically impossible for the government to

:03:12.:03:14.

reject Parliament's desire for a vote because the atmosphere of

:03:15.:03:17.

politics will be completely different by then. I take David

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Davies seriously. Within Whitehall he has acquired a reputation as

:03:21.:03:26.

being the most conscientious and details sadly... And well briefed.

:03:27.:03:30.

Absolutely and well travelled in terms of European capitals of the

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three Brexit ministers. It is quite telling he said what he did and it

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is quite telling that within cabinet, two weeks ago he was

:03:38.:03:41.

floating the idea of no deal at all. Being if not the central estimate

:03:42.:03:45.

than a completely plausible eventuality. It is interesting. I

:03:46.:03:49.

would suggest the prospect of no deal is moving up the agenda. It is

:03:50.:03:54.

still less likely than more likely to happen. But it's no longer a kind

:03:55.:04:00.

of long tail way out there in the distance. Planning for no deal is

:04:01.:04:03.

the same as having contents insurance or travel insurance, plan

:04:04.:04:05.

for the worse case scenarios are prepared it happens. Even the worst

:04:06.:04:09.

case scenario, it's not that bad. Think of the Jeep 20, apart from the

:04:10.:04:14.

EU, four members of the G20 economies are successful members of

:04:15.:04:18.

the EU. The rest aren't and don't have trade deals but somehow these

:04:19.:04:22.

countries are prospering. They are growing at a higher rate. You are

:04:23.:04:27.

not frightened? Not remotely. We are obsessed with what we get from the

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EU and the key thing we get from leaving the EU is not the deal but

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the other deals we can finally make with other trading partners. They

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have higher growth than virtually every other EU country apart from

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Germany. It is sensible as a negotiating position for the

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government to say if there is no deal, we will accept there is no

:04:46.:04:49.

deal. We're not frightened of no deal. It was clear from what David

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Davies was saying that there will be a vote in parliament at the end of

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the process but there won't be a third option to send the government

:04:57.:05:02.

back to try to get a better deal. It is either the deal or we leave

:05:03.:05:06.

without a deal. In reality, that third option will be there. We don't

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know yet whether there will be a majority for the deal if they get

:05:11.:05:15.

one. What we do know now is that there isn't a majority in the

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Commons for no deal. Labour MPs are absolutely clear that no deal is

:05:21.:05:25.

worth then a bad deal. I've heard enough Tory MPs say the same thing.

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But they wouldn't get no deal through. When it comes to this vote,

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if whatever deal is rejected, there will then be, one way or another,

:05:38.:05:41.

the third option raised of go back again. But who gets to decide what

:05:42.:05:44.

is a bad deal? The British people will have a different idea than the

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two thirds of the Remain supporting MPs in the Commons. In terms of the

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vote, the Commons. Surely, if the Commons, which is what matters here,

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if the Commons were to vote against the deal as negotiated by the

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government, surely that would trigger a general election? If the

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government had recommended the deal, surely the government would then, if

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it still felt strongly about the deal, if the other 27 had said,

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we're not negotiating, extending it, it would in effect become a second

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referendum on the deal. In effect it would be a no-confidence vote in the

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government. You've got to assume that unless something massively

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changes in the opposition before then, the government would feel

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fairly confident about a general election on those terms. Unless the

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deal is hideously bad and obviously basso every vote in the country...

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The prior minister said if it is that bad she would have rather no

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deal. So that eventuality arrives. -- the Prime Minister has said. Not

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a second referendum general election in two years' time. Don't put any

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holidays for! LAUGHTER -- don't look any.

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So the Brexit bill looks likely to clear Parliament this week.

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That depends on the number of Conservative MPs who are prepared

:07:02.:07:05.

to vote against their government on two key issues.

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Theresa May could be in negotiations with our European

:07:08.:07:11.

partners within days, but there may be some

:07:12.:07:13.

wheeler-dealings she has to do with her own MPs, too.

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Cast your mind back to the beginning of month.

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The bill to trigger Article 50 passed comfortably

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But three Conservatives voted for Labour's amendments to ensure

:07:22.:07:29.

the rights of EU citizens already in the UK.

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Seven Tory MPs voted to force the government to give Parliament

:07:35.:07:37.

a say on the deal struck with the EU before it's finalised.

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But remember those numbers, they're important.

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On the issue of a meaningful vote on a deal, I'm told there might have

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been more rebels had it not been for this assurance from

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I can confirm that the government will bring forward a motion

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on the final agreement to be approved by both Houses

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And we expect, and intend, that this will happen before

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the European Parliament debates and votes on the final agreement.

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When the government was criticised for reeling back

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from when and what it would offer a vote on.

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The bill then moved into the Lords, where peers passed it

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And the second, that Parliament be given a meaningful vote on the terms

:08:24.:08:31.

of the deal or indeed a vote in the event of there

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The so-called Brexit bill will return to Commons

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Ministers insist that both amendments would weaken

:08:39.:08:42.

the government's negotiating hand and are seeking to overturn them.

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But, as ever, politics is a numbers game.

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Theresa May has a working majority of 17.

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On Brexit, though, it's probably higher.

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At least six Labour MPs generally vote with

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Plus, eight DUP MPs, two from the Ulster Unionist party

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If all Conservatives vote with the government as well,

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Therefore, 26 Conservative rebels are needed for the government to be

:09:10.:09:15.

So, are there rough waters ahead for Theresa May?

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What numbers are we looking at, in terms of a potential rebellion?

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I think we're looking at a large number of people who are interested

:09:25.:09:27.

This building is a really important building.

:09:28.:09:30.

It's symbolic of a huge amount of history.

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And for it not to be involved in this momentous time would,

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But he says a clear verbal statement from the government on a meaningful

:09:37.:09:43.

vote on any deal would be enough to get most Tory MPs onside.

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It was already said about David Jones.

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It's slightly unravelled a little bit during

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I think this is an opportunity to really get that clarity

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through so that we can all vote for Article 50 and get

:09:59.:10:00.

We've have spoken to several Tory MPs who say they are minded to vote

:10:01.:10:05.

One said the situation was sad and depressing.

:10:06.:10:09.

The other said that the whips must be worried because they don't

:10:10.:10:12.

A minister told me Downing Street was looking again at the possibility

:10:13.:10:19.

of offering a vote in the event of no deal being reached.

:10:20.:10:23.

But that its position was unlikely to change.

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And, anyway, government sources have told the Sunday Politics they're not

:10:26.:10:28.

That those Tory MPs who didn't back either amendment the first time

:10:29.:10:35.

round would look silly if they did, this time.

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It would have to be a pretty hefty lot of people changing their minds

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about things that have already been discussed in quite a lot of detail,

:10:42.:10:44.

last time it was in the Commons, for things to be reversed this time.

:10:45.:10:48.

There's no doubt that a number of Tory MPs are very concerned.

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Labour are pessimistic about the chances of enough Tory

:10:53.:10:54.

rebels backing either of the amendments in the Commons.

:10:55.:10:57.

The important thing, I think, is to focus on the fact

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that this is the last chance to have a say on this.

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If they're going to vote with us, Monday is the time to do it.

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Assuming the bill does pass the Commons unamended,

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it will go back to the Lord's on Monday night where Labour peers

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have already indicated they won't block it again.

:11:13.:11:16.

It means that the Brexit bill would become law and Theresa May

:11:17.:11:18.

would be free to trigger Article 50 within days.

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Her own deadline was the end of this month.

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But one minister told me there were advantages to doing it early.

:11:25.:11:31.

We're joined now from Nottingham by the Conservative MP Anna Soubry.

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She's previously voted against the government on the question

:11:35.:11:36.

of whether Parliament should have a final say over the EU deal.

:11:37.:11:43.

Anna Soubry, I think it was clear this morning from David Davies that

:11:44.:11:48.

what he means by meaningful vote is not what you mean by a meaningful

:11:49.:11:52.

vote. He thinks the choice for Parliament would be to either vote

:11:53.:11:57.

for the deal and if Parliament doesn't, we leave on World Trade

:11:58.:12:00.

Organisation rules, on a bare-bones structure. In the end, will he

:12:01.:12:07.

accept that in the Commons tomorrow? No, because my problem and I don't

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think it is a problem, but my problem, the government's problem is

:12:12.:12:15.

that what I want is then to answer this question. What happens in the

:12:16.:12:19.

event of their not being any deal? David Davies made it very clear that

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in the event of there being no deal, Parliament would have no say. It

:12:24.:12:28.

means through your elected representatives, the people of this

:12:29.:12:31.

country would have no say on what happens if the government doesn't

:12:32.:12:36.

get a deal. I think the request that Parliament should have a say on

:12:37.:12:39.

Parliamentary sovereignty, is perfectly reasonable. That is what I

:12:40.:12:43.

want David to say. If he says that, I won't be rebelling. If he does...

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They have refused to say that. Sorry. If he continues to say what

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he said the BBC this morning, which means that the vote will be either

:12:56.:13:01.

to accept the as negotiated or to leave on WTO rules, will you rebel

:13:02.:13:07.

on that question but no, no, sorry, if there's a deal, Parliament will

:13:08.:13:11.

have a say. So that's fine. And we will see what the deal is and we

:13:12.:13:15.

will look at the options two years down the road. When who knows

:13:16.:13:19.

what'll happen in our economy and world economy. That is one matter

:13:20.:13:23.

which I am content on. The Prime Minister, a woman of her word has

:13:24.:13:26.

said that in the event of a deal, Parliament will vote on any deal. I

:13:27.:13:33.

don't difficulty. To clarify, I will come onto that. These are important

:13:34.:13:37.

matters. I want to clarify, not argue with you. You are content that

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if there is a deal, we will come under no deal in a second, but if

:13:41.:13:44.

there is a deal, you are content with the choice of being able to

:13:45.:13:50.

vote for that deal or leaving on WTO terms? No, you're speculating as to

:13:51.:13:53.

what might happen in two years' time. What the options might be.

:13:54.:13:59.

Personally I find it inconceivable that the government will come back

:14:00.:14:02.

with a rubbish deal. They will either come back with a good deal,

:14:03.:14:06.

which I won't have a problem with or they will come back with no deal. To

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speculate about coming back with a deal, there is a variety of options.

:14:11.:14:14.

I understand that that is what the Lord amendments are about. They are

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about a vote at the end of the process. Do forgive me, the Lords

:14:19.:14:26.

amendment is not the same that I've voted for in Parliament. What we

:14:27.:14:28.

call the Chris Leslie amendment, which was talking about whatever the

:14:29.:14:31.

agreement is, whatever happens at the end of the negotiations,

:14:32.:14:33.

Parliament will have a vote. Parliament will have a say. The

:14:34.:14:37.

Lords amendment is a bit more technical. It is the principle of no

:14:38.:14:43.

deal that is agitating us. Let's clarify on this. They are

:14:44.:14:47.

complicated matters. What do you want the government to say? What do

:14:48.:14:51.

you want David Davis to say tomorrow on what should the Parliamentary

:14:52.:14:56.

process should be if there is no deal? Quite. I want a commitment

:14:57.:15:00.

from him that in the event of no deal, it will come into Parliament

:15:01.:15:03.

and Parliament will determine what happens next. It could be that in

:15:04.:15:11.

the event of no deal, the best thing is for us to jump off the cliff into

:15:12.:15:14.

WTO tariff is. I find it unlikely but that might be the reality. There

:15:15.:15:18.

might be other alternatives. Most importantly, including saying to the

:15:19.:15:22.

government, go back, carry on. The question that everybody has to ask

:15:23.:15:25.

is, why won't the government give My fear is what this is about is

:15:26.:15:36.

asked deliberately, not the Prime Minister, but others deliberately

:15:37.:15:41.

ensuring we have no deal and no deal pretty soon and in that event, we

:15:42.:15:46.

jumped off the cliff onto WTO tariffs and nobody in this country

:15:47.:15:50.

and the people of this country do not have a say. My constituents did

:15:51.:15:57.

not vote for hard Brexit. You do not want the government to

:15:58.:16:01.

have the ability if there is no deal to automatically fall back on the

:16:02.:16:07.

WTO rules? Quite. It is as simple as that. We are now speculating about

:16:08.:16:12.

what will happen in two years. I want to find out what happens

:16:13.:16:18.

tomorrow. What will you do if you don't get that assurance? I will

:16:19.:16:23.

either abstain, or I will vote to keep this amendment within the Bill.

:16:24.:16:27.

I will either vote against my government, which I do not do

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likely, I have never voted against my government until the Chris Leslie

:16:32.:16:35.

clause when the Bill was going through, or I will abstain, which

:16:36.:16:39.

has pretty much the same effect because it comes into the Commons

:16:40.:16:42.

with both amendments so you have positively to vote to take the map.

:16:43.:16:48.

Can you give us an idea of how many like-minded conservative colleagues

:16:49.:16:54.

there are. I genuinely do not know. You must talk to each other. I do

:16:55.:17:00.

not talk to every member of my party. You know people who are

:17:01.:17:07.

like-minded. I do. I am not doing numbers games. I know you want that

:17:08.:17:11.

but I genuinely do not know the figure. I think this is an

:17:12.:17:16.

uncomfortable truth. People have to understand what has happened in our

:17:17.:17:23.

country, two particular newspapers, creating an atmosphere and setting

:17:24.:17:27.

an agenda and I think many people are rather concerned, some

:17:28.:17:29.

frightened, to put their head over the parapet. There are many millions

:17:30.:17:36.

of people who feel totally excluded from this process. Many of them

:17:37.:17:41.

voted to remain. And they have lost their voice. We have covered the

:17:42.:17:44.

ground I wanted to. We're joined now by the Ukip MEP

:17:45.:17:45.

and former leader Nigel Farage. Article 50 triggered, we are leaving

:17:46.:17:58.

the EU, the single market and the customs union. What is left you to

:17:59.:18:02.

complain about? All of that will happen and hopefully we will get the

:18:03.:18:06.

triggered this week which is good news. What worries me a little I'm

:18:07.:18:10.

not sure the government recognises how strong their handers. At the

:18:11.:18:15.

summit in Brussels, the word in the corridors is that we are prepared to

:18:16.:18:18.

give away fishing waters as a bargaining chip and the worry is

:18:19.:18:22.

what deal we get. Are we leaving, yes I am pleased about that. You are

:18:23.:18:27.

under relevant voice in the deal because the deal will be voted on in

:18:28.:18:32.

Parliament and you have one MP. You are missing the point, the real vote

:18:33.:18:36.

in parliament is not in London but Strasbourg. This is perhaps the

:18:37.:18:40.

biggest obstacle the British Government faces. Not what happens

:18:41.:18:44.

in the Commons that the end of the two years, the European Parliament

:18:45.:18:49.

could veto the deal. What that means is people need to adopt a different

:18:50.:18:54.

approach. We do not need to be lobbying in the corridors of

:18:55.:18:57.

Brussels to get a good deal, we need is a country to be out there talking

:18:58.:19:03.

to the German car workers and Belgian chocolate makers, putting as

:19:04.:19:07.

much pressure as we can on politicians from across Europe to

:19:08.:19:11.

come to a sensible arrangement. It is in their interests more than

:19:12.:19:15.

ours. In what way is the vision of Brexit set out by David Davis any

:19:16.:19:23.

different from your own? I am delighted there are people now

:19:24.:19:26.

adopting the position I argued for many years. Good. But now... Like

:19:27.:19:34.

Douglas Carswell, he said he found David Davis' performers this morning

:19:35.:19:40.

reassuring. It is. And just as when Theresa May was Home Secretary every

:19:41.:19:44.

performance she gave was hugely reassuring. She was seen to be a

:19:45.:19:48.

heroine after her conference speeches and then did not deliver. I

:19:49.:19:54.

am concerned that even before we start we are making concessions. You

:19:55.:20:00.

described in the EU's divorce bill demands, 60 billion euros is floated

:20:01.:20:04.

around. You said it is laughable and I understand that. Do you maintain

:20:05.:20:11.

that we will not have to pay a penny to leave? It is nine months since we

:20:12.:20:19.

voted exit and assuming the trigger of Article 50, we would have paid 30

:20:20.:20:25.

billion in since we had a vote. We are still members. But honestly, I

:20:26.:20:28.

do not think there is an appetite for us to pay a massive divorce

:20:29.:20:33.

Bill. There are assets also. Not a penny? There will be some ongoing

:20:34.:20:41.

commitments, but the numbers talked about our 50, ?60 billion, they are

:20:42.:20:46.

frankly laughable. I am trying to find out if you are prepared to

:20:47.:20:51.

accept some kind of exit cost, it may be nowhere near 60 billion. We

:20:52.:20:56.

have to do a net agreement, the government briefed about our share

:20:57.:20:59.

of the European Union investment bank. Would you accept a

:21:00.:21:06.

transitional arrangement, deal, five, ten billion, as part of the

:21:07.:21:11.

divorce settlement? We are painted net ?30 million every single day at

:21:12.:21:16.

the moment, ?10 billion plus every year. That is just our contribution.

:21:17.:21:21.

We are going to make a massive saving on this. What do you make of

:21:22.:21:28.

what Anna Soubry said, that if there is no deal, and it is being talked

:21:29.:21:33.

about more. Maybe the government managing expectations. There is an

:21:34.:21:36.

expectation we will have a deal, but if there is no deal, that the

:21:37.:21:41.

government cannot just go to WTO rules, but it has to have a vote in

:21:42.:21:47.

parliament? By the time we get to that there will be a general

:21:48.:21:49.

election coming down the tracks and I suspect that if at the end of the

:21:50.:21:55.

two-year process there is no deal and by the way, no deal is a lot

:21:56.:22:00.

better for the nation than where we currently are, because we freed of

:22:01.:22:04.

regulations and able to make our own deals in the world. I think what

:22:05.:22:08.

would happen, and if Parliament said it did not back, at the end of the

:22:09.:22:15.

negotiation a general election would happen quickly. According to reports

:22:16.:22:21.

this morning, one of your most senior aides has passed a dossier to

:22:22.:22:27.

police claiming Tories committed electoral fraud in Thanet South, the

:22:28.:22:31.

seat contested in the election. What evidence to you have? I read that in

:22:32.:22:37.

the newspapers as you have. I am not going to comment on it. Will you not

:22:38.:22:40.

aware of the contents of the dossier? I am not aware of the

:22:41.:22:47.

dossier. He was your election strategists. I am dubious as to

:22:48.:22:53.

whether this dossier exists at all. Perhaps the newspapers have got this

:22:54.:22:58.

wrong. Concerns about the downloading of data the took place

:22:59.:23:06.

in that constituency, there are. Allegedly, he has refuted it, was it

:23:07.:23:12.

done by your MP to give information to the Tories, do you have evidence

:23:13.:23:18.

about? We have evidence Mr Carswell downloaded information, we have no

:23:19.:23:25.

evidence what he did with it. It is not just your aide who has been

:23:26.:23:29.

making allegations against the Conservatives in Thanet South and

:23:30.:23:35.

other seats, if the evidence was to be substantial, and if it was to

:23:36.:23:42.

result in another by-election being called an Thanet South had to be

:23:43.:23:46.

fought again, would you be the Ukip candidate? I probably would. You

:23:47.:23:51.

probably would? Yes. Just probably? Just probably. It would be your

:23:52.:23:57.

eighth attempt. Winning seats in parliament under first past the post

:23:58.:24:01.

is not the only way to change politics in Britain and I would like

:24:02.:24:03.

to think I proved that. Let's go back to Anna Soubry. The implication

:24:04.:24:09.

of what we were saying on the panel at the start of the show and what

:24:10.:24:13.

Nigel Farage was saying there would be that if at the end of the process

:24:14.:24:19.

whatever the vote, if the government were to lose it, it would provoke a

:24:20.:24:23.

general election properly. I think that would be right. Let's get real.

:24:24.:24:28.

The government is not going to come to Parliament with anything other

:24:29.:24:31.

than something it believes is a good deal and if it rejected it, would be

:24:32.:24:40.

unlikely, there would be a de facto vote of no confidence and it would

:24:41.:24:43.

be within the fixed term Parliaments act and that be it. The problem is,

:24:44.:24:49.

more likely, because of the story put up about the 50 billion, 60

:24:50.:24:55.

billion and you look at the way things are flagged up that both the

:24:56.:24:58.

Prime Minister and Boris Johnson saying, we should be asking them for

:24:59.:25:02.

money back, I think the big fear and the fear I have is we will be

:25:03.:25:07.

crashing out in six months. You think we could leave as quickly as

:25:08.:25:13.

six months. Explain that. I think they will stoke up the demand from

:25:14.:25:19.

the EU for 50, 60 billion back and my real concern is that within six

:25:20.:25:23.

months, where we're not making much progress, maybe nine months, and

:25:24.:25:28.

people are getting increasingly fed up with the EU because they are told

:25:29.:25:32.

it wants unreasonable demands, and then the crash. I think what is

:25:33.:25:36.

happening is the government is putting in place scaffolding at the

:25:37.:25:41.

bottom of the cliff to break our fall when we come to fall off that

:25:42.:25:46.

cliff and I think many in government are preparing not for a two-year

:25:47.:25:51.

process, but six, to nine months, off the cliff, out we go. That is my

:25:52.:25:57.

fear. That is interesting. I have not heard that express before by

:25:58.:26:01.

someone in your position. I suspect you have made Nigel Farage's date.

:26:02.:26:08.

It is a lovely thought. I would say to Anna Soubry she is out of date

:26:09.:26:13.

with this. 40 years ago there was a good argument for joining the common

:26:14.:26:17.

market because tariffs around the world was so high. That has changed

:26:18.:26:22.

with the World Trade Organisation. We are leaving the EU and rejoining

:26:23.:26:26.

a great big world and it is exciting. She was giving an

:26:27.:26:35.

interesting perspective on what could happen in nine months rather

:26:36.:26:36.

than two years. I thank you both. It was Philip Hammond's first

:26:37.:26:40.

budget on Wednesday - billed as a steady-as-she-goes

:26:41.:26:42.

affair, but turned out to cause uproar after the Chancellor appeared

:26:43.:26:49.

to contradict a Tory manifesto commitment with an increase

:26:50.:26:51.

in national insurance contributions. The aim was to address what some see

:26:52.:26:53.

as an imbalance in the tax system, where employees pay

:26:54.:27:02.

more National Insurance The controversy centres

:27:03.:27:04.

on increasing the so-called class 4 rate for the self-employed who make

:27:05.:27:07.

a profit of more than ?8,060 a year. It will go up in stages

:27:08.:27:10.

from 9% to 11% in 2019. The changes mean that over one

:27:11.:27:16.

and a half million will pay on average ?240 a year

:27:17.:27:20.

more in contributions. Some Conservative MPs were unhappy,

:27:21.:27:25.

with even the Wales Minister saying: "I will apologise to every

:27:26.:27:31.

voter in Wales that read the Conservative manifesto

:27:32.:27:33.

in the 2015 election." The Sun labelled Philip

:27:34.:27:35.

Hammond "spite van man". The Daily Mail called the budget

:27:36.:27:40.

"no laughing matter". By Thursday, Theresa May

:27:41.:27:43.

said the government One of the first things I did

:27:44.:27:46.

as Prime Minister was to commission Matthew Taylor to review the rights

:27:47.:27:52.

and protections that were available to self-employed workers

:27:53.:27:56.

and whether they should be enhanced. People will be able to look

:27:57.:27:59.

at the government paper when we produce it, showing

:28:00.:28:01.

all our changes, and take And, of course, the Chancellor will

:28:02.:28:04.

be speaking, as will his ministers, to MPs, businesspeople and others

:28:05.:28:09.

to listen to the concerns. Well, the man you heard mentioned

:28:10.:28:13.

there, Matthew Taylor, has the job of producing

:28:14.:28:15.

a report into the future Welcome. The Chancellor has decided

:28:16.:28:29.

the self-employed should pay almost the same in National Insurance, not

:28:30.:28:33.

the same but almost, as the employed will stop what is left of your

:28:34.:28:38.

commission? The commission has a broader frame of reference and we

:28:39.:28:41.

are interested in the quality of work in the economy at the heart of

:28:42.:28:48.

what I hope will be proposing is a set of shifts that will improve the

:28:49.:28:53.

quality of that work so we have an economy where all work is fair and

:28:54.:28:57.

decent and all jobs give people scope for development and

:28:58.:29:00.

fulfilment. The issue of taxes a small part. You will cover that? We

:29:01.:29:08.

will, because the tax system and employment regulation system drive

:29:09.:29:11.

particular behaviours in our labour market. You approve I think of the

:29:12.:29:17.

general direction of this policy of raising National Insurance on the

:29:18.:29:22.

self-employed. Taxing them in return perhaps for more state benefits. Why

:29:23.:29:27.

are so many others on the left against it from Tim Farron to John

:29:28.:29:32.

McDonnell? Tax rises are unpopular and it is the role of the opposition

:29:33.:29:36.

parties to make capital from unpopular tax rises. I think as tax

:29:37.:29:40.

rises go this is broadly progressive. There are self-employed

:29:41.:29:44.

people on low incomes and they will be better off. It is economic league

:29:45.:29:49.

rational because the reason for the difference in National Insurance --

:29:50.:29:52.

economically. It was to do with state entitlements. The government

:29:53.:29:57.

is consulting about paid parental leave. A series of governments have

:29:58.:30:03.

not been good about thinking about medium sustainability of the tax

:30:04.:30:08.

base. Self-employment is growing. But it is eroding the tax base. It

:30:09.:30:12.

is important to address those issues. A number of think tanks have

:30:13.:30:19.

said this is a progressive move. Yet, a number of left-wing

:30:20.:30:24.

politicians have been against it. And a number of Tories have said

:30:25.:30:29.

this is a progressive move and not a Tory government move, the balance of

:30:30.:30:33.

you will pay more tax, but you will get more state benefits is not a

:30:34.:30:38.

Tory approach to things. That a Tory approach will be you will pay less

:30:39.:30:41.

tax but entitled to fewer benefits as well.

:30:42.:30:45.

I preferred in and policies to politics -- I prefer policies. When

:30:46.:30:55.

people look at the policy and when they look the fact that there is no

:30:56.:30:59.

real historical basis for that big national insurance differential,

:31:00.:31:01.

they see it is a sensible policy. I don't have to deal with the

:31:02.:31:05.

politics. There has been a huge growth in self-employment from the

:31:06.:31:09.

turn of the millennium. It's been strongest amongst older workers,

:31:10.:31:10.

women part-timers. Do you have any idea, do you have

:31:11.:31:18.

the data in your commission that could tell us how many are taking

:31:19.:31:23.

self-employment because they like the flexibility and they like the

:31:24.:31:27.

tax advantages that come with it, too, or they are being forced into

:31:28.:31:32.

it by employers who don't want the extra costs of employment? Do we

:31:33.:31:36.

know the difference? We do, broadly. Most surveys on self-employment and

:31:37.:31:43.

flexible forms of employment suggest about two thirds to three quarters

:31:44.:31:46.

enjoy it, they like the flexibility, they like the autonomy and about a

:31:47.:31:50.

third to one quarter are less happy. That tends to be because they would

:31:51.:31:54.

like to have a full-time permanent job. It is not necessary that they

:31:55.:31:57.

don't enjoy what they are doing, they would like to do other things.

:31:58.:32:01.

And some of the protections that come with it? Yes. There are some

:32:02.:32:06.

people who are forced into southern employees by high-risk but also some

:32:07.:32:09.

people feel like they can't get a proper job as it were. --

:32:10.:32:13.

self-employment by people who hire them. It is on the narrow matter of

:32:14.:32:19.

tax revenues but if you are employed on ?32,000 the state will take over

:32:20.:32:23.

?6,000 in national insurance contributions, that is quite chunky.

:32:24.:32:28.

If you are self-employed it is ?2300. But the big difference

:32:29.:32:32.

between those figures isn't what the employee is paying, it's the

:32:33.:32:39.

employer's contributions up to almost 14%, and cupped for as much

:32:40.:32:43.

as you are paid. What do you do about employers' contributions for

:32:44.:32:51.

the self employed? -- it is uncapped for as much. What I recommend is

:32:52.:32:55.

that we should probably move from taxing employment to taxing labour.

:32:56.:33:00.

We should probably have a more level playing field so it doesn't really

:33:01.:33:04.

matter... Explained that I thought it was the same thing. If you are a

:33:05.:33:08.

self-employed gardener, you are a different tax regime to a gardener

:33:09.:33:12.

who works for a gardening firm. On the individual side and on the firm

:33:13.:33:20.

side. As we see new business models, so-called gig working, partly with

:33:21.:33:23.

technology, we need a more level playing field saying that we're

:33:24.:33:29.

taxing people's work, not the form in which they deliver that. That is

:33:30.:33:33.

part of the reason we have seen the growth of particular business

:33:34.:33:35.

models. They are innovative and creative and partly driven by the

:33:36.:33:40.

fact that if you can describe yourself as self-employed there are

:33:41.:33:45.

tax advantages. Coming out in June? Will you come back and talk to us?

:33:46.:33:47.

Yes. We say goodbye to viewers

:33:48.:33:49.

in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,

:33:50.:33:53.

we'll be talking to the former Tory MP who was the root

:33:54.:33:58.

of Donald Trump's allegation Welcome to the Sunday

:33:59.:34:26.

Politics in the Midlands. We're talking rubbish today.

:34:27.:34:30.

Fly-tipping. It's a menace in town and country

:34:31.:34:32.

alike and it's getting worse. Our region's local councils spend

:34:33.:34:35.

millions clearing up the mess. Yes, it's criminal waste but what's

:34:36.:34:37.

to be done about it? Well, I will ask Shabana Mahmood,

:34:38.:34:40.

Labour MP for Birmingham Ladywood. She's a former Shadow

:34:41.:34:43.

Cabinet minister. And Gavin Williamson, Conservative

:34:44.:34:45.

MP for Staffordshire South who sits on Theresa May's Cabinet

:34:46.:34:47.

as the government's Chief Whip. And one of our top local business

:34:48.:34:49.

leaders will be with us too to explain what Philip Hammond's

:34:50.:34:54.

first and indeed last Spring Budget But we begin with Gavin's

:34:55.:34:57.

immediate predecessor as MP for South Staffordshire,

:34:58.:35:02.

Patrick - now Lord - Cormack, was one of 13

:35:03.:35:05.

Conservative peers who rebelled against the government

:35:06.:35:08.

on Tuesday night. They voted for an Amendment

:35:09.:35:11.

to the Brexit bill which would guarantee Parliament a more

:35:12.:35:15.

meaningful say over As ministers planned to overturn

:35:16.:35:19.

that in the Commons yet again, one former Worcestershire MP

:35:20.:35:24.

who chaired the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee for nine

:35:25.:35:28.

years, joined the growing chorus in support of an early

:35:29.:35:31.

general election. I personally think they should call

:35:32.:35:33.

a general election for a vote of confidence or whatever

:35:34.:35:36.

it is in the Commons. Call a general election and have it

:35:37.:35:39.

out in the well-known Democratic way of doing

:35:40.:35:42.

things, general election. Gavin, the government's stock

:35:43.:35:48.

position on this is well-known, it's just not going to happen,

:35:49.:35:54.

a general election, but as Chief Whip, you don't need me

:35:55.:35:57.

to tell you that there is a growing clamour on your side of the House

:35:58.:36:01.

of Commons for that early general election and a good opportunity

:36:02.:36:04.

for Labour at an historic low point. Well I think what people expect

:36:05.:36:08.

of the government is a government to act in the national interest

:36:09.:36:11.

and actually, a period of uncertainty where we are dealing

:36:12.:36:13.

with Brexit, actually most people want the government to be focused

:36:14.:36:17.

on dealing with that and frankly, actually, I don't think we can take

:36:18.:36:19.

the risk of Jeremy Corbyn running the country and Theresa May

:36:20.:36:23.

is a very, very competent, steady Prime Minister who is going

:36:24.:36:28.

to deliver for this country. But if you talk about taking a risk,

:36:29.:36:31.

is there not a very significant risk You have to be braced for another

:36:32.:36:35.

rebellion by your so-called Ramona Rebels on your side

:36:36.:36:41.

of the House, flexing their muscles. This attempt to play ping-pong again

:36:42.:36:44.

is full of risks because the Brexit timing may be thrown apart.

:36:45.:36:47.

You have to be braced for that. OK, so when the Prime Minister

:36:48.:36:51.

triggers Article 50, we're going to have two years

:36:52.:36:54.

in order to be able to do a deal That two years will pass

:36:55.:36:57.

incredibly quickly. I don't think this country can

:36:58.:37:03.

afford to take three, four months out in order

:37:04.:37:07.

to have a general election. The British people, people

:37:08.:37:10.

in the West Midlands, people in South Staffordshire,

:37:11.:37:14.

want us to be focused on delivering for Britain and getting

:37:15.:37:17.

the best possible deal. Are you not braced

:37:18.:37:18.

for a Commons revolt? I'm always braced for

:37:19.:37:21.

a Commons revolt, that's what Chief Whips are always ready

:37:22.:37:23.

and expecting the worst. But we're focused on delivering

:37:24.:37:28.

for Britain and focusing on what's best for our country,

:37:29.:37:31.

not internal party squabbles. Let's imagine, Shabana,

:37:32.:37:33.

just for fun, that the government does eventually table a motion of no

:37:34.:37:36.

confidence in itself, any Labour opposition worth its salt

:37:37.:37:40.

will have to vote in support Yes, if there's going to be an ask

:37:41.:37:43.

of the House of Commons to enable a general election

:37:44.:37:50.

because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act,

:37:51.:37:53.

then of course, we would support that

:37:54.:37:56.

and we would all go to the country. But I think the Prime Minister has

:37:57.:37:58.

effectively ruled out the early general election,

:37:59.:38:00.

not just because of what she said but because she said she's

:38:01.:38:03.

going to trigger Article 50 before And I think it's untenable,

:38:04.:38:06.

the idea that you've triggered Article 50,

:38:07.:38:11.

you've only got two years to do your deal with the European Union

:38:12.:38:14.

and you go off for a period of time So if she was going to seek

:38:15.:38:17.

a mandate, she should have done so before triggering Article 50

:38:18.:38:22.

and frankly, I'm surprised she didn't do it as soon

:38:23.:38:24.

as she was elected leader of the Conservative Party,

:38:25.:38:27.

that's what I was expecting. She didn't do it then,

:38:28.:38:29.

I don't think she can do it now until she has

:38:30.:38:32.

concluded the negotiations. We'll see what happens.

:38:33.:38:34.

We'll see. Well, for us here, it was a budget

:38:35.:38:38.

of two halves, the first ended with Philip Hammond fending off

:38:39.:38:44.

charges that increasing National Insurance contributions

:38:45.:38:46.

for millions of self-employed workers broke an election

:38:47.:38:48.

manifesto pledge. So, next day in Dudley,

:38:49.:38:51.

he was keen to set a new agenda, starting up our Midlands Engine,

:38:52.:38:54.

ignition on all cylinders, or could it yet backfire?

:38:55.:38:56.

Not surprisingly, Elizabeth Glinka First the Budget followed quickly

:38:57.:38:59.

by the Budget backlash. Next up, a trip to the Black Country

:39:00.:39:09.

for a visit to Dudley College. Where there was just about enough

:39:10.:39:13.

time to squeeze in some details We're wasting time, come on,

:39:14.:39:18.

we're wasting time. You will see more money

:39:19.:39:22.

being invested in road improvements You'll see money being

:39:23.:39:25.

invested in skills. We've got a Skills Challenge fund

:39:26.:39:30.

for the West Midlands. This is not a one-off,

:39:31.:39:33.

this is part of a programme to galvanise this economy,

:39:34.:39:36.

to allow it to achieve its full potential, to realise its full

:39:37.:39:38.

potential and make the greatest possible contribution

:39:39.:39:41.

to Britain's future. The government has pledged

:39:42.:39:43.

?20 million for the Midlands Skills Challenge, to help students

:39:44.:39:47.

like these get the training they ?392 million invested

:39:48.:39:49.

in the local growth fund Exciting times for the boss

:39:50.:39:57.

and perhaps one up It's absolutely wrong

:39:58.:40:06.

to think about the Midlands being in competition

:40:07.:40:11.

with the Northern powerhouse or indeed with London.

:40:12.:40:14.

Our competition for the future is Shanghai,

:40:15.:40:17.

its New York, its Frankfurt. By coming together in the way

:40:18.:40:19.

we are as the Midlands Engine, it enables us to talk about those

:40:20.:40:22.

things with one voice. As well as the Midlands Engine plan,

:40:23.:40:26.

the government also published The aim is to improve road and rail

:40:27.:40:29.

connections between the East and West Midlands and capitalise

:40:30.:40:36.

on the benefits of HS2. The hope is that this will help

:40:37.:40:39.

deliver a once-in-a-generation opportunity for long-term economic

:40:40.:40:43.

success. If the strategy delivers, it

:40:44.:40:46.

won't just be the PM who's laughing. And among the projects

:40:47.:40:51.

on a very long list, an apprenticeship academy

:40:52.:40:56.

at Warwick University, a business park in Newport,

:40:57.:41:00.

Shropshire, and an extension We're also joined today by

:41:01.:41:03.

Richard Butler who is the regional director of our biggest business

:41:04.:41:09.

organisation - the CBI. I note that you list skills,

:41:10.:41:12.

transport and achieving a successful Taking the Budget and the Engine

:41:13.:41:16.

strategy together, how many marks out of ten for Philip Hammond

:41:17.:41:22.

on those lists you have there? I think it's probably

:41:23.:41:26.

around an eight. I think the announcement on Thursday

:41:27.:41:29.

about the Midlands Engine addresses concerns that businesses have had.

:41:30.:41:36.

I think we have ?392 million to use effectively in the region that

:41:37.:41:40.

a week ago, we didn't have. On the question of business rate

:41:41.:41:42.

relief which have been the subject of protests right across our region

:41:43.:41:47.

and elsewhere, the findings of the Centre for Cities suggests

:41:48.:41:50.

that relief that the Chancellor has brought in, actually favours

:41:51.:41:53.

businesses in London rather than penalises those in Birmingham

:41:54.:41:58.

and other major cities. This is surely not exactly

:41:59.:42:01.

what you would have hoped for? That does appear to be the case that

:42:02.:42:04.

I think there's a general consensus that the business rate system needs

:42:05.:42:08.

a fundamental reform. It brings in ?25 billion a year

:42:09.:42:11.

so we do need to have a good look at that system rather than just

:42:12.:42:15.

tweaking it at the edges. The other controversial aspect

:42:16.:42:17.

of course is this increase in National Insurance contributions

:42:18.:42:21.

for certain self-employed people. What does that say in your view

:42:22.:42:24.

about the commitment encouragement for entrepreneurs,

:42:25.:42:27.

given the track record in this part of the country of very successful

:42:28.:42:31.

start-ups and small businesses I think we were surprised

:42:32.:42:34.

to see it in the Budget. There is the Taylor review

:42:35.:42:39.

that is ongoing, that will be reporting in the summer,

:42:40.:42:42.

that is actually covering I think there is a fundamental

:42:43.:42:44.

change in employment in the UK - more and more people

:42:45.:42:50.

are becoming self-employed. And if you are employed

:42:51.:42:54.

by a business, both yourself and your employer are making

:42:55.:42:57.

National Insurance contributions. But if you are self-employed,

:42:58.:42:59.

you don't get the employer element so there is a tax issue

:43:00.:43:02.

the government needs On this point about

:43:03.:43:04.

National Insurance, Gavin, the kindest word ministers seem

:43:05.:43:09.

to find in favour of it at the moment is that it's fair.

:43:10.:43:11.

Does that imply that that pledge in your Conservative

:43:12.:43:15.

manifesto was unfair? What we pledged and what we've

:43:16.:43:16.

already delivered on in terms of legislation that we introduced

:43:17.:43:18.

in the last session, was actually enshrining that

:43:19.:43:21.

manifesto commitment on Class 1 National Insurance contributions.

:43:22.:43:24.

What we're trying to do... But that's a technical,

:43:25.:43:27.

hair-splitting point. It inspires cynicism

:43:28.:43:29.

in the electorate. What we are quite clear

:43:30.:43:35.

in terms of doing, we've put that in legislation,

:43:36.:43:38.

we are delivering on that and what we've seen additional

:43:39.:43:40.

self-employment, we have seen additional benefits being added

:43:41.:43:43.

to those that would usually be available for those people

:43:44.:43:46.

who are self-employed and making sure that they get

:43:47.:43:48.

those extra benefits. My congratulations to Gavin

:43:49.:43:51.

for sticking to the line The tax lock said National Insurance

:43:52.:43:54.

that was promised at the general election, that was not always

:43:55.:44:01.

delivered in the legislation, that would be correct,

:44:02.:44:04.

but that's not what the public I think there is a case for reform

:44:05.:44:06.

of National Insurance, given the increase in the number

:44:07.:44:11.

of people who are self-employed, but I think that has to be done

:44:12.:44:14.

with a discussion around the benefits of the

:44:15.:44:17.

self-employed gets as well. The more benefits you

:44:18.:44:19.

get, I think the more But not in the context

:44:20.:44:21.

of a broken promise. Rapidly changing employment

:44:22.:44:26.

patterns, the whole economy Yes, there is ongoing

:44:27.:44:29.

change in arguably both the National Insurance and business

:44:30.:44:33.

rates processes are not fit for purpose for

:44:34.:44:35.

the 21st-century economy. What did we make of sir John Peace's

:44:36.:44:38.

very sort of ecumenical attitude towards the Northern powerhouse

:44:39.:44:41.

given that obviously ?23 million for roads here,

:44:42.:44:44.

for pinch points here with ?90 million for the powerhouse,

:44:45.:44:49.

that signals surely that you are still

:44:50.:44:52.

favouring the powerhouse? I think what you've seen

:44:53.:44:55.

is ?392 million put here for local enterprise and partnerships

:44:56.:44:58.

in the Midlands. That's on top of ?1.5 billion worth

:44:59.:45:01.

of extra money for the local growth fund that has been made available

:45:02.:45:04.

to the West Midlands and the Midlands in general.

:45:05.:45:06.

Convinced? We started this process I think

:45:07.:45:08.

a year, 18 months behind the Northern powerhouse

:45:09.:45:11.

so to a certain extent, I think the point that

:45:12.:45:13.

Sir John Peace made, this is not about competing

:45:14.:45:19.

with Manchester or Sheffield or Leeds, the West Midlands

:45:20.:45:21.

and Midlands as a whole has got It's important to get the right

:45:22.:45:24.

factors sorted to do that, rather than worrying what Macnhester

:45:25.:45:28.

or other places have got. I think there has been a generally

:45:29.:45:31.

favourable response? Put the budget and the strategy

:45:32.:45:34.

together, the government is actually doing the right thing by this part

:45:35.:45:36.

of the country? Actually, one of the problems I have

:45:37.:45:39.

with the government's approach is it's very piecemeal

:45:40.:45:42.

so they are doing huge amounts of devolution in different

:45:43.:45:44.

parts of the country, going at a different pace,

:45:45.:45:46.

that is bound to create the kind of competition that results

:45:47.:45:49.

in different settlements on transport when the need might be

:45:50.:45:51.

greater in one area, but the political will

:45:52.:45:54.

is in another space. So I think that's a real structural

:45:55.:45:56.

problem with the way Frankly, I don't think you can take

:45:57.:45:59.

aside the money that's been allocated to the Engine from what's

:46:00.:46:05.

happening to local government funding, so yes, that's 390

:46:06.:46:07.

odd million pounds coming to the Midlands Engine

:46:08.:46:10.

but Birmingham as a city has lost I don't thing you can divorce those

:46:11.:46:13.

two things from one another if you are looking at the things

:46:14.:46:21.

you need to do for our regions, Do people understand

:46:22.:46:24.

what this Engine is? That it stretches from the Welsh

:46:25.:46:32.

border right over to Lincolnshire? Do people really actually

:46:33.:46:37.

have a handle on it? Well, I think when we see

:46:38.:46:39.

the mayoral elections in the West Midlands Combined Authority,

:46:40.:46:42.

I think it will put another element You've got someone in Andy Street

:46:43.:46:45.

who is incredibly dynamic and... And you have other

:46:46.:46:50.

candidates as well. Who aren't as good,

:46:51.:46:52.

I should add, Patrick! You've got someone in Andy Street

:46:53.:46:53.

who's going to deliver for the West Midlands combined area

:46:54.:46:56.

and that is... Can we please have

:46:57.:46:59.

a moratorium on...? I feel duty bound to point out

:47:00.:47:01.

that there is a Labour candidate called Sean,

:47:02.:47:04.

but actually, one of the challenges that the Mayor...

:47:05.:47:06.

I'm not sure he can deliver though! The Mayor of the West Midlands

:47:07.:47:12.

Combined Authority area will have to create a sense of identity

:47:13.:47:16.

because you're right, the Midlands Engine covers such

:47:17.:47:19.

a vast area in our country and identity and local identities

:47:20.:47:21.

are becoming more important. That's going to be a big

:47:22.:47:23.

job for the Mayor. Final question, will this mayoral

:47:24.:47:26.

election inspire more of a sense of enthusiasm for local

:47:27.:47:29.

devolution, local enterprise? I think it's a challenge but I think

:47:30.:47:30.

it's a step in the right direction. I think three things are happening,

:47:31.:47:34.

I think you've got the West Midlands Combined Authority,

:47:35.:47:37.

the Midlands Mayor and the Midlands Engine and I think those

:47:38.:47:39.

three combined will make a real difference.

:47:40.:47:41.

Thank you very much indeed. Well, with local authorities under

:47:42.:47:44.

so much financial pressure, there must be better things for them

:47:45.:47:47.

to spend their money on, surely, than clearing up industrial

:47:48.:47:50.

quantities of rubbish? Fly-tipping is costing councils

:47:51.:47:53.

in our part of the country alone But are they authors

:47:54.:47:56.

of their own misfortunes to some extent by charging for certain

:47:57.:48:01.

kinds of waste? Our political reporter Emma Thomas

:48:02.:48:03.

has been hearing demands for tougher White goods on residential street

:48:04.:48:06.

corners and lorry loads of shredded paper and plastic in country lanes.

:48:07.:48:17.

Scenes such as these were reported to councils across England 100

:48:18.:48:21.

times an hour last year. In the West Midlands,

:48:22.:48:24.

fly-tipping has risen by 13% over The cost to councils

:48:25.:48:28.

of cleaning up cannabis, mattresses and dirty nappies reached

:48:29.:48:35.

?3 million in 2016. Birmingham City Council is one

:48:36.:48:38.

of four local authorities in the region which has defied

:48:39.:48:42.

the trend, seeing a reduction in fly-tipping for two consecutive

:48:43.:48:46.

years, after a dedicated team We look for anything, really,

:48:47.:48:49.

that leads us to where it That could be from local CCTV,

:48:50.:48:58.

from CCTV that stores and local businesses might have,

:48:59.:49:03.

as well as just actually But this just isn't acceptable,

:49:04.:49:06.

I mean, for people have to live next door to this,

:49:07.:49:12.

it's outrageous, it's terrible. We've got rats, we've got mice, it's

:49:13.:49:15.

just horrible to live like this. They are cleaning one day and then

:49:16.:49:20.

I looked out of my bedroom window, two days later and I

:49:21.:49:23.

thought, "Oh my God." You've only got to look at this,

:49:24.:49:30.

I mean, it's absolutely disgusting. If we removed the progress

:49:31.:49:34.

of Birmingham from the West Midlands statistics, we see a 29% increase

:49:35.:49:38.

in fly-tipping over Around a third of all incidents

:49:39.:49:49.

were recorded as a car load size, so why are people choosing to break

:49:50.:49:55.

the law rather than make In Staffordshire, we've had a levy

:49:56.:49:58.

placed on charging for some of the waste that was previously

:49:59.:50:03.

going free to the tips. So that's had an impact

:50:04.:50:05.

on forcing people to think about what their alternatives are,

:50:06.:50:09.

particularly if you are of low or limited income, then fly-tipping

:50:10.:50:11.

becomes an accepted alternative because if you can't afford

:50:12.:50:13.

to dispose of things properly, And we found the evidence abandoned

:50:14.:50:15.

outside the district's In November, Staffordshire County

:50:16.:50:21.

Council introduced charges for certain items at these tips,

:50:22.:50:26.

including the tip the other Things like just ?3 for a bag

:50:27.:50:29.

of rubble, ?4 for a tyre, but the authority said there is no

:50:30.:50:34.

evidence to suggest that charges increase fly-tipping.

:50:35.:50:37.

Local councils do have the power to issue penalties to fly-tippers

:50:38.:50:41.

if they can catch them. But with fines ranging

:50:42.:50:45.

from ?400 to ?5,000, some charities say the deterrent,

:50:46.:50:48.

unlike the mounting piles And Shabana, I'm going to put

:50:49.:50:51.

the question posed in that piece, are councils to some extent

:50:52.:51:03.

contributing to their own misfortunes

:51:04.:51:06.

by introducing those charges? Look, those charges have been very

:51:07.:51:08.

controversial and I think the councils have a point

:51:09.:51:11.

when they say that they are losing so much from their budgets

:51:12.:51:14.

as a result of government cuts, that they've got to make some tough

:51:15.:51:17.

choices and so that's what we've But I do sympathise very much

:51:18.:51:20.

with my own constituents. Honestly, fly-tipping in Birmingham

:51:21.:51:26.

and elsewhere drives me absolutely up the wall and I think the real

:51:27.:51:28.

problem is that the deterrent is not enough, as you saw in that film,

:51:29.:51:32.

the ?5,000 fines, even heavier fines are not doing enough to deter people

:51:33.:51:35.

from fly-tipping in the first place. Gavin, as a former county

:51:36.:51:39.

councillor yourself, you don't have to be Sherlock

:51:40.:51:41.

to work it out with those tyres just outside the site,

:51:42.:51:44.

you don't have to really strain your brain too hard to work

:51:45.:51:48.

out those charges have The real issue in terms

:51:49.:51:50.

of fly-tipping is industrial commercial fly-tipping which makes

:51:51.:51:56.

up two thirds of it and what we need to see,

:51:57.:51:59.

the average fine is about ?400, It's not actually, for people

:52:00.:52:02.

who are willing to operate outside the law, it's not worth...

:52:03.:52:10.

It's worth running the risk. We need to have fines of 10, 20, 30,

:52:11.:52:14.

?40,000, it is legally possible to make fines up to ?50,000

:52:15.:52:17.

and custodial sentences. We need to start seeing judges

:52:18.:52:20.

taking action and levying serious fines on people who are these

:52:21.:52:24.

environmental vandals, ruining our And threatening public health

:52:25.:52:27.

and the environment? Absolutely, but you also need

:52:28.:52:34.

the enforcement to be there, so Birmingham City Council has put

:52:35.:52:37.

money for enforcement. That's difficult, you have

:52:38.:52:39.

to ctch people at it. That's difficult, you have

:52:40.:52:43.

to catch people at it. Absolutely, you've got to build

:52:44.:52:44.

the case before the judges can actually levy the heavier fines.

:52:45.:52:47.

As a lawyer, you would know. Absolutely.

:52:48.:52:50.

It's very difficult. I've gone out and gone hunting among

:52:51.:52:52.

the rubbish for evidence to put before the Council

:52:53.:52:55.

to try to persuade them to take action in individual cases,

:52:56.:52:58.

but it takes time and resource and that is where we

:52:59.:53:00.

are really struggling. I think we could do with some

:53:01.:53:03.

radical rethinking of this and actually, if we knew

:53:04.:53:06.

that the courts were going to enforce proper and severe

:53:07.:53:08.

fines on these people, actually, letting councils keep

:53:09.:53:11.

the money from these much larger fines, giving them the resources

:53:12.:53:14.

to crack down on this absolute scourge of city

:53:15.:53:16.

centres, town centres There's plenty of evidence

:53:17.:53:19.

the government has given councils extra powers as we've been hearing

:53:20.:53:25.

but actually not many of them enough seem to be very enthusiastic

:53:26.:53:29.

about using those powers. Powers without resources are powers

:53:30.:53:32.

that are not going to be used. When resources have to be found,

:53:33.:53:35.

when you are having to close your libraries and other things

:53:36.:53:40.

in your city, finding money for rubbish is not necessarily

:53:41.:53:42.

going to be a high priority, Wouldn't it be better just to make

:53:43.:53:45.

it cheaper for people to get rid Lots of different things

:53:46.:53:50.

but enforcement, there's no excuse for dumping rubbish

:53:51.:53:54.

in the countryside or in our towns. Time now for our regular round-up

:53:55.:53:57.

of the rest of the political developments making the news

:53:58.:54:03.

here over the past week. 60 Seconds is brought to us

:54:04.:54:05.

today by Louisa Currie. A Shropshire couple say they've gone

:54:06.:54:11.

to the police over claims the Conservatives broke the law

:54:12.:54:14.

during the 2015 general election. Greg and Louise Kinsell volunteered

:54:15.:54:17.

on the party's battle bus and say their expenses

:54:18.:54:21.

were never declared. The Communist Party of Britain

:54:22.:54:23.

is to field a candidate in the West Midlands mayoral election.

:54:24.:54:26.

Former trade union official Graham Stevenson from

:54:27.:54:29.

Coventry has been selected. No regrets on Twitter

:54:30.:54:32.

from John Spellar after A big supporter of elected Mayors,

:54:33.:54:35.

the Warley MP described Heseltine as the main protagonist

:54:36.:54:42.

in this idiotic policy. Councillors in Coventry are trying

:54:43.:54:45.

to improve the city centre. They've introduced a public spaces

:54:46.:54:48.

protection order to deal Cyclists going too fast,

:54:49.:54:51.

with skateboarderss causing problems, making a lot of noise

:54:52.:54:57.

by residential properties But it's also about

:54:58.:55:01.

aggressive beggars. And Jaguar Land Rover boss

:55:02.:55:05.

Ralf Speth says he is concerned about the forthcoming

:55:06.:55:08.

Brexit negotiations. He wants assurances about free

:55:09.:55:10.

and fair trade in Europe Yes and bearing in mind

:55:11.:55:13.

the government's apparently relaxed attitude towards leaving Europe's

:55:14.:55:18.

single market, what would you see what would you say to Ralf Speth,

:55:19.:55:24.

the leader of certainly one of our most

:55:25.:55:27.

important companies who is very worried about not having access

:55:28.:55:30.

to his main markets? What we've seen is within

:55:31.:55:32.

the interest of not just British manufacturers but also European

:55:33.:55:37.

manufacturers, to get a deal, make sure supply chains are able

:55:38.:55:40.

to move in and out of Britain The British Government is totally

:55:41.:55:43.

committed to delivering on this and I think most European

:55:44.:55:47.

governments will see it is within their interest to make

:55:48.:55:49.

sure it happens as well. I think firstly I have to say

:55:50.:55:52.

if the government is so committed, then the Chancellor should have

:55:53.:56:00.

mentioned it in his Budget and I think that's going to send out

:56:01.:56:03.

some worries to business. But expect business to be putting

:56:04.:56:06.

in much more requests for what they want to see

:56:07.:56:09.

now that the government has said that coming out of the single market

:56:10.:56:15.

but getting access to it is what it's going to go

:56:16.:56:18.

for because that is going to be the cost along the supply chain go

:56:19.:56:21.

up and it's going to be a big Very briefly, were

:56:22.:56:27.

you surprised that so few mentions of Brexit

:56:28.:56:32.

in the Budget statement? He was getting on with actually make

:56:33.:56:37.

you to our public finances It favours, in Parliament, we do

:56:38.:56:40.

seem to discuss Brexit quite a lot. Brexit on the economy is kind

:56:41.:56:44.

of a big deal, though. My thanks to Shabana Mahmood

:56:45.:56:48.

and Gavin Williamson. Finally from me, as we head

:56:49.:56:50.

into another week, dominated by Brexit.

:56:51.:56:52.

Our guests next Sunday were on opposite sides

:56:53.:56:55.

during the referendum. The Conservative MP

:56:56.:56:59.

for Shrewsbury campaigned for Vote Leave and Labour MP

:57:00.:57:03.

for Stoke-on-Trent North, Now the government plans for new

:57:04.:57:05.

grammar schools. The Education Secretary

:57:06.:57:20.

Justine Greening was speaking to a conference

:57:21.:57:21.

of headteachers on Friday. They're normally a pretty polite

:57:22.:57:23.

bunch, but they didn't Broadcasters weren't

:57:24.:57:26.

allowed into the speech, but this was captured

:57:27.:57:32.

on a camera phone. And we have to recognise actually

:57:33.:57:37.

for grammars, in terms of disadvantaged children,

:57:38.:57:40.

that they have, they really do help them close

:57:41.:57:43.

the attainment gap. And at the same time

:57:44.:57:46.

we should recognise that ..That parents also want choice

:57:47.:57:48.

for their children and that those schools are often

:57:49.:57:55.

very oversubscribed. I suppose it is a rite of passage

:57:56.:58:10.

for and education secretaries to have this at a head teachers

:58:11.:58:14.

conference book the head are usually more polite. Isn't part of the

:58:15.:58:19.

problem, whether one is for or against the expansion of grammar

:58:20.:58:25.

schools, the government plans are complicated, you cannot sum them up

:58:26.:58:28.

in a sentence. The proof of that is they can still get away with denying

:58:29.:58:33.

they are expanding grammar schools. They will find an alternative

:58:34.:58:36.

formulation because it is not as simple as a brute creation of what

:58:37.:58:40.

we used to know is grammar schools with the absolute cut-off of the 11

:58:41.:58:46.

plus. I am surprised how easy they found it politically. We saw the

:58:47.:58:50.

clip of Justine Greening being jeered a little bit but in the grand

:58:51.:58:55.

scheme, compared to another government trying this idea a decade

:58:56.:58:58.

ago they have got away with it easily and I think what is happening

:58:59.:59:03.

is a perverse consequence of Brexit and the media attention on Brexit,

:59:04.:59:07.

the government of the day can just about get away with slightly more

:59:08.:59:12.

contentious domestic policies on the correct assumption we will be too

:59:13.:59:16.

busy investing our attention in Article 50 and two years of

:59:17.:59:20.

negotiations, WTO terms at everything we have been discussing.

:59:21.:59:26.

I wonder if after grammar schools there will be examples of

:59:27.:59:28.

contentious domestic policies Theresa May can slide in stock

:59:29.:59:33.

because Brexit sucks the life out, takes the attention away. You are a

:59:34.:59:41.

supporter. Broadly. Are you happy with the government approach? They

:59:42.:59:48.

need to have more gumption and stop being apologetic. It is a bazaar

:59:49.:59:52.

area of public policy where we judge the policy on grammar schools based

:59:53.:59:57.

on what it does for children whose parents are unemployed, living on

:59:58.:00:01.

sink estates in Liverpool. It is absurd, we don't judge any other

:00:02.:00:06.

policy like that. It is simple, not contentious, people who are not

:00:07.:00:10.

sure, ask them if they would apply to send their child there, six out

:00:11.:00:15.

of ten said they would. Parents want good schools for their children, we

:00:16.:00:20.

should have appropriate education and they should be straightforward,

:00:21.:00:23.

this is about the future of the economy and we need bright children

:00:24.:00:27.

to get education at the highest level, education for academically

:00:28.:00:33.

bright children. It is supposed to be a signature policy of the Theresa

:00:34.:00:37.

May administration that marks a government different from David

:00:38.:00:41.

Cameron's government who did not go down this road. The signature is

:00:42.:00:42.

pretty blurred, it is hard to read. It is. She is trying to address

:00:43.:00:52.

concerns about those who fail to get into these selective schools and

:00:53.:00:56.

tried to targeted in poorer areas and the rest of it. She will

:00:57.:01:00.

probably come across so many obstacles. It is not clear what form

:01:01.:01:03.

it will take in the end. It is really an example of a signature

:01:04.:01:07.

policy not fully thought through. I think it was one of her first

:01:08.:01:10.

announcements. It was. It surprised everybody. Surprised at the speed

:01:11.:01:14.

and pace at which they were planning to go. Ever since, there have been

:01:15.:01:19.

qualifications and hesitations en route with good cause, in my view. I

:01:20.:01:24.

disagree with Juliet that this is... We all want good schools but if you

:01:25.:01:29.

don't get in there and you end up in a less good school. They already do

:01:30.:01:32.

that. We have selection based on the income of parents getting into a

:01:33.:01:36.

good catchment area, based on the faith of the parents. That becomes

:01:37.:01:42.

very attainable! I might been too shot run christenings for these. --

:01:43.:01:44.

I have been. Now, you may remember this time last

:01:45.:01:47.

week we were talking about the extraordinary claims by US

:01:48.:01:49.

President Donald Trump, on Twitter of course,

:01:50.:01:51.

that Barack Obama had ordered And there was me thinking

:01:52.:01:54.

that wiretaps went out Is it legal for a sitting

:01:55.:01:57.

President to do so, he asked, concluding it was a "new low",

:01:58.:02:02.

and later comparing it to Watergate. Since then, the White House has been

:02:03.:02:11.

pressed to provide evidence for this It hasn't, but it seems it may have

:02:12.:02:14.

initially come from a report on a US website by the former Conservative

:02:15.:02:20.

MP Louise Mensch. She wrote that the FBI had been

:02:21.:02:23.

granted a warrant to intercept communications between Trump's

:02:24.:02:26.

campaign and Russia. Well, Louise Mensch joins

:02:27.:02:33.

us now from New York. Louise, you claimed in early

:02:34.:02:46.

November that the FBI had secured a court warrants to monitor

:02:47.:02:49.

communications between trump Tower in New York at two Russian banks.

:02:50.:02:55.

It's now four months later. Isn't it the case that nobody has proved the

:02:56.:02:56.

existence of this warrant? First of all, forgive me Andrew, one

:02:57.:03:06.

takes 1's life in one's hand when it is you but I have to correct your

:03:07.:03:10.

characterisation of my reporting. It is very important. I did not report

:03:11.:03:14.

that the FBI had a warrant to intercept anything or that Trump

:03:15.:03:19.

tower was any part of it. What I reported was that the FBI obtained a

:03:20.:03:22.

warrant is targeted on all communications between two Russian

:03:23.:03:27.

banks and were, therefore, allowed to examine US persons in the context

:03:28.:03:34.

of their investigation. What the Americans call legally incidental

:03:35.:03:37.

collection. I certainly didn't report that the warrant was able to

:03:38.:03:43.

intercept or that it had location basis, for example Trump tower. I

:03:44.:03:47.

just didn't report that. The reason that matters so much is that I now

:03:48.:03:52.

believe based on the President's reaction, there may well be a

:03:53.:03:57.

wiretap act Trump Tower. If so, Donald Trump has just tweeted out

:03:58.:04:00.

evidence in an ongoing criminal case that neither I nor anybody else

:04:01.:04:04.

reported. He is right about Watergate because he will have

:04:05.:04:08.

committed obstruction of justice directly from his Twitter account.

:04:09.:04:12.

Let me come back as thank you for clarifying. Let me come back to the

:04:13.:04:18.

question. -- and thank you. We have not yet got proof that this warrant

:04:19.:04:23.

exists, do we? No and we are most unlikely to get it because it would

:04:24.:04:27.

be a heinous crime for Donald Trump to reveal its existence. In America

:04:28.:04:32.

they call it a Glomar response. I can neither confirm nor deny. That

:04:33.:04:35.

is what all American officials will have to say legally. If you are

:04:36.:04:40.

looking for proof, you won't get it until and unless a court cases

:04:41.:04:43.

brought. But that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. The BBC validated

:04:44.:04:49.

this two months after me in their reporting by the journalist Paul

:04:50.:04:53.

Wood. The Guardian, they also separately from their own sources

:04:54.:04:56.

validated the existence of the warrant. If you are in America, you

:04:57.:05:00.

would know that CNN and others are reporting that the investigation in

:05:01.:05:04.

ongoing. Let me come onto the wider point. You believe the Trump

:05:05.:05:08.

campaign including the president were complicit with the Russians

:05:09.:05:12.

during the 2016 election campaign to such an extent that Mr Trump should

:05:13.:05:16.

be impeached. What evidence did you have?

:05:17.:05:22.

That is an enormous amount of evidence. You could start with him

:05:23.:05:28.

saying, hey, Russia, if you are listening, please release all the

:05:29.:05:30.

Hillary Clinton's e-mails. That's not evidence. I think it rather is,

:05:31.:05:35.

actually. Especially if you look at some of the evidence that exists on

:05:36.:05:39.

Twitter and elsewhere of people talking directly to his social media

:05:40.:05:43.

manager, Dan should be no and telling him to do that before it

:05:44.:05:47.

happened. There is a bit out there. The BBC itself reported that in

:05:48.:05:52.

April of last year, a six agency task force, not just the FBI, but

:05:53.:05:56.

the Treasury Department, was looking at this. I believe there is an

:05:57.:06:00.

enormous amount of evidence. And then there is the steel dossier

:06:01.:06:03.

which was included in an official report of the US intelligence

:06:04.:06:11.

committee. You've also ... Just to be clear, we don't have hard

:06:12.:06:14.

evidence yet whether this warrant exists. It may or may not. There is

:06:15.:06:19.

doubt about... There are claims about whether there is evidence

:06:20.:06:22.

about Mr Trump and the Russians. That is another matter. You claimed

:06:23.:06:27.

that President Putin had Andrew Breitbart murdered to pave the way

:06:28.:06:34.

for Steve Bannon to play a key role in the Trump administration. I

:06:35.:06:38.

haven't. You said that Steve Bannon is behind bomb threats to Jewish

:06:39.:06:42.

community centres. Aren't you in danger of just peddling wild

:06:43.:06:47.

conspiracy theories? No. Festival, I haven't. No matter how many times

:06:48.:06:51.

people say this, it's not going to be true -- first of all. I said in

:06:52.:06:55.

twitter I believe that to be the case about the murder of Andrew

:06:56.:06:59.

Breitbart. You believe President Putin murdered him. I didn't! You

:07:00.:07:06.

said I reported it, but I believed it. You put it on twitter that you

:07:07.:07:09.

believed it but you don't have a shred of evidence. I do. Indeed, I

:07:10.:07:15.

know made assertions. What is the evidence that Mr Putin murdered

:07:16.:07:19.

Andrew Breitbart? I said I believe it. You may believe there are

:07:20.:07:25.

fairies at the bottom of your garden, it doesn't make it true. I

:07:26.:07:29.

may indeed. And if I say so, that's my belief. If I say I am reporting,

:07:30.:07:38.

as I did with the Fisa warrant exists, I have a basis in fact. They

:07:39.:07:44.

believe is just a belief. I know you are relatively new to journalism.

:07:45.:07:50.

Let me get the rules right. Andrew, jealousy is not your colour... If it

:07:51.:07:54.

is twitter, we don't believe it but if it is on your website, we should

:07:55.:07:58.

believe it? If I report something and I say this happened, then I am

:07:59.:08:03.

making an assertion. If I describe a belief, I am describing a belief.

:08:04.:08:08.

Subtlety may be a little difficult for you... No, no. If you want to be

:08:09.:08:12.

a journalist, beliefs have to be backed up with evidence. Really? Do

:08:13.:08:20.

you have a faith? It's not a matter of faith, maybe in your case, that

:08:21.:08:23.

President Putin murdered Andrew Breitbart. A belief and a report at

:08:24.:08:29.

two different things and no matter how often you say that they are the

:08:30.:08:33.

same, they will never be the same. You've said in today's Sunday Times

:08:34.:08:37.

here in London that you've turned into" a temporary superpower" where

:08:38.:08:46.

you "See things really clearly". Have you become delusional? No. I am

:08:47.:08:50.

describing a biological basis for ADHD, which I have. As any of your

:08:51.:08:57.

viewers who are doctors will know. It provides people with

:08:58.:09:00.

unfortunately a lot of scattered focus, they are very messy and

:09:01.:09:03.

absent-minded but when they are interested in things and they have

:09:04.:09:07.

ADHD they can have a condition which is hyper focus. You concentrate very

:09:08.:09:11.

hard on a given subject and you can see patterns and connections. That

:09:12.:09:16.

is biological. Thank you for explaining that. And for getting up

:09:17.:09:22.

early in New York. The first time ever I have interviewed a temporary

:09:23.:09:26.

superpower. Thank you. You are so lucky! You are so lucky! I don't

:09:27.:09:29.

think it's going to happen again. Please don't ask us to comment on

:09:30.:09:34.

that interview! I will not ask you, viewers will make up their own

:09:35.:09:39.

minds. Let's come back to be more mundane world of Article 50. Stop

:09:40.:09:40.

the killing! Will it get through at the

:09:41.:09:48.

government wanted it? Without the Lords amendment falling by the way

:09:49.:09:51.

that? I am sure the Lord will not try to ping-pong this back and

:09:52.:09:56.

forth. So we are at the end of this particular legislative phase. The

:09:57.:09:59.

fact that all three Brexit Cabinet ministers, number ten often don't

:10:00.:10:03.

like one of them going out on a broadcast interview on a Sunday,

:10:04.:10:06.

they've all been out and about. That suggests to me they are working on

:10:07.:10:09.

the assumption it will be triggered this week. This week. The

:10:10.:10:15.

negotiations will begin or at least the process begins. The negotiation

:10:16.:10:19.

process may be difficult, given all of the European elections. The Dutch

:10:20.:10:23.

this week. And then the French and maybe the Italians and certainly the

:10:24.:10:27.

Germans by the end of September, which is less predictable than it

:10:28.:10:31.

was. Given all that, what did you make of Anna Soubry's claim, Viacom

:10:32.:10:36.

on her part, that we may just end up crashing out in six months question

:10:37.:10:41.

-- fear on her part. It was not just that that we made that deliberately

:10:42.:10:47.

organising. I want us to get on with the deals.

:10:48.:10:50.

Everyone knows a good deal is the best option. Who knows what is going

:10:51.:10:57.

to be on the table when we finally go out? Fascinatingly, the demand

:10:58.:11:00.

for some money back, given the amount of money... Net gains and net

:11:01.:11:06.

costs in terms of us leaving for the EU. It is all to play for. That will

:11:07.:11:13.

be a possible early grounds for a confrontation between the UK and the

:11:14.:11:17.

EU. My understanding is that they expect to do a deal on reciprocal

:11:18.:11:22.

rights of EU nationals, EU nationals here, UK citizens there, quite

:11:23.:11:25.

quickly. They want to clear that up and that will be done. Then they

:11:26.:11:30.

will hit this problem that the EU will be saying you've got to agree

:11:31.:11:33.

the divorce Bill first before we talk about the free trade bill.

:11:34.:11:38.

David Davis saying quite clearly, no, they go together because of the

:11:39.:11:42.

size of the bill. It will be determined, in our part, by how good

:11:43.:11:47.

the access will be. The mutual recognition of EU residents' rights

:11:48.:11:51.

is no trouble. A huge amount of fuss is attracted to that subject but it

:11:52.:11:54.

is the easiest thing to deal with, as is free movement for tourists.

:11:55.:11:59.

Money is what will make it incredibly acrimonious. Incredibly

:12:00.:12:01.

quickly. I imagine the dominant story in the summer will be all

:12:02.:12:06.

about that. This was Anna Soubry's implication, members of the

:12:07.:12:09.

governors could strongly argue, things are so poisonous and so

:12:10.:12:12.

unpleasant at the moment, the dealers are advancing -- members of

:12:13.:12:16.

the government. Why not call it a day and go out on WTO terms while

:12:17.:12:22.

public opinion is still in that direction in that Eurosceptic

:12:23.:12:25.

direction? No buyers' remorse about last year's referendum. The longer

:12:26.:12:29.

they leave it, view more opportunity there is for some kind of public

:12:30.:12:32.

resistance and change of mind to take place. The longer believe it,

:12:33.:12:37.

the more people who voted for Brexit and people who voted Remain and

:12:38.:12:41.

think we didn't get world War three will start being quite angry with

:12:42.:12:45.

the EU for not agreeing a deal. In terms of the rights of EU nationals

:12:46.:12:49.

he and Brits abroad, by all accounts, 26 of the 27 have agreed

:12:50.:12:54.

individually. Angela Merkel is the only person who has held that up.

:12:55.:12:57.

That will be dealt with in a matter of days. The chances of a deal being

:12:58.:13:03.

done is likely but in ten seconds... It would not be a bad bet to protect

:13:04.:13:07.

your on something not happening, you might get pretty good odds? The odds

:13:08.:13:11.

are going up that a deal doesn't happen. But, as I said earlier, the

:13:12.:13:17.

House of Commons will not endorse no deal. We are either in an early

:13:18.:13:21.

election or she has to go back again. Either way, you will need us!

:13:22.:13:26.

We will be back at noon tomorrow on BBC Two ahead of what looks like

:13:27.:13:30.

being a big week in politics. We will be back here same time, same

:13:31.:13:31.

place. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:32.:13:34.

it's the Sunday Politics. They're calling it an

:13:35.:14:39.

entertainment extravaganza audience fun and frolics

:14:40.:14:46.

and outrageous shenanigans. And I don't even know what

:14:47.:14:51.

those HONK words mean.

:14:52.:14:55.

Andrew Neil and Patrick Burns with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew discusses the Brexit bill with UKIP's Nigel Farage and Conservative MP Anna Soubry. Guests include Matthew Taylor of the Independent Review of Employment Practices, journalist Louise Mensch and Gavin Williamson MP. On the political panel are Janan Ganesh, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards.