02/04/2017 Sunday Politics West Midlands

It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained

But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal

After a momentous week, Britain's journey out

Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home

We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.

And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -

what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?

And, in the Midlands, it's the Digby and Rigby show!

Sir Peter Jones says Brexit is a disaster.

Join him and him and me in half an hour.

changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from

there constituencies. And with me, as always,

the best and the brightest political panel in the business -

Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be

tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause

22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something

of a shock. The guidelines propose

that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade

deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted

strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away

in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,

Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look

after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected

all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar

cannot be changed without the agreement of the people

of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not

want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,

in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying

that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is

this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.

Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again

and again is that at different points individual countries can

start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you

have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to

be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit

after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is

triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto

it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald

Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to

say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual

countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking

to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I

think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number

10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter

of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal

the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things

looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed

over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this

incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there

could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,

it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going

entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar

got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the

Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not

see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of

difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to

Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.

For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power

grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are

not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials

after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it

is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very

much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is

still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the

next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly

empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has

got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They

will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy

about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so

much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been

absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!

Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now

changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of

months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking

up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,

the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth

journey to the exit door? Or can we expect

a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back

control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually

involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting

in a car. It is only a few hundred metres

from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start

of a much longer one and we do not know exactly

where we will all end up. This is a historic moment

from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,

sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's

ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset

to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,

hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it

all meant for the So, here it is, a copy

of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's

proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal

at the same time. It also mentioned the word

"security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement

would mean cooperation in the fight against crime

and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got

to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European

policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access

information in the same way as we would as a member,

so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate

a continuing relationship that enables us to work together

in the way that we have. That night, the

Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad

Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,

having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is

actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers

suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool

and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area

if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,

as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we

will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement

of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other

business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,

outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British

law to change later, It is not without its critics

but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,

it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek

a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,

we are doing so from a position where we have the same

standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver

on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law

in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small

issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle

with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said

they were not allowed Great(!)

so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been

a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,

Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting

and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines

for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,

we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss

the framework for our Starting parallel talks

on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,

will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not

pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is

already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get

the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set

elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions

are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is

celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent

by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a

future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient

progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this

phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence

and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of

nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that

might be reached on things talked about early on will be very

provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the

sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.

Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk

of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not

remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.

A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said

that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see

how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are

wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see

what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,

there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years

and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept

that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels

is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to

make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a

really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,

speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.

But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I

cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the

negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.

The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years

after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must

remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of

the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It

depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are

getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any

judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you

know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And

then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is

something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this

stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,

and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer

to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in

its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like

yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they

will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do

not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try

another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a

comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints

on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept

that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We

will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own

decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the

negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in

the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.

No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free

trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very

important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of

the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without

having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I

think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of

the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no

deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will

get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,

because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But

it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the

world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would

be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with

everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to

get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the

interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned

in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair

government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any

free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British

government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it

absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this

week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is

halfway across the world to protect another small group of British

people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am

absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the

same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.

This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about

sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any

free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to

Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The

British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests

of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000

people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important

Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will

be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including

free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this

morning. Although sometimes it seems

like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening

other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,

there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot

up for grabs. Local elections take place

on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections

in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,

usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually

fares better are not Six regions of England will also

hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,

and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,

with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands

among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32

councils are being contested, many of them affected

by boundary changes. Since these seats were last

contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each

of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected

in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,

though independent candidates currently hold

a quarter of council seats. According to the latest

calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,

the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,

despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England

looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning

100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,

predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system

usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,

the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats

they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high

water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections

suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest

gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's

very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice

of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start

with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?

Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part

rural England. The only control three of the council they are

defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly

a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion

polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the

position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring

of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking

about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50

losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council

areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,

could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council

control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,

what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the

big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of

the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local

by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and

in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a

Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of

ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is

uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they

do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do

terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing

relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely

to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in

the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour

Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We

are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the

mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general

election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in

the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general

election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the

West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a

headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to

lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for

their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his

party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty

dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.

Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always

remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.

Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.

The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP

will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is

happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion

polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did

relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather

disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign

of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP

ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by

double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently

control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the

question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative

revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government

by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of

the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in

the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose

control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22

local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose

ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,

labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff

could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.

Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour

control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid

Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in

the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be

judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion

polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it

affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect

his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by

this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and

others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence

and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some

kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the

argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12

months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,

up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some

impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will

mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it

will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That

is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive

reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the

fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she

believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West

who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were

worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got

other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the

success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says

this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face

before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a

good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results

will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem

threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory

party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried

about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems

because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve

about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding

repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think

he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership

contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to

be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they

were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,

it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of

self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.

Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it

Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew

Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces

It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the

Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.

If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.

Labour is trying to do something much harder,

which is to try and speak for the whole country,

and by the way, that is another part of

Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's

Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,

let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.

By the way, there is more that unites Remainers

and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common

concerns about the way the country is run.

Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.

Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on

Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed

Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms

with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I

campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I

represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.

Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky

nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this

democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant

legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before

Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I

will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election

date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across

the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what

Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We

have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,

your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we

have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those

types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies

that decide general elections. The important places in the elections

are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are

marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well

in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to

campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who

voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime

Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen

that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is

important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the

trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people

who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for

other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate

that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am

not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see

online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to

switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was

not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our

neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from

voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among

nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the

mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,

in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is

less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond

extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of

elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate

city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that

of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an

anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,

from memory. We have not got elections in London but our

elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...

What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the

opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it

is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do

well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,

Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the

general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?

What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative

garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me

about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to

you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people

the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks

so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements

and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey

was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education

spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.

Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the

Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are

working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does

it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three

times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a

huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter

and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in

the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls

are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of

government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that

the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years

because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes

this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault

on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for

government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading

for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me

have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an

individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British

people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are

letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election

question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an

early election? The general election coordinator called for a general

election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in

staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the

Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter

having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the

election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.

Welcome to the Sunday Politics in the Midlands.

And this week, it's the Digby and Rigby Show.

Digby Jones tells us why he's convinced we'll make a success

And Sir Peter Rigby, the head of a business empire.

Does he still think Brexit will be a disaster?

And how do our two MPs here today see this "momentous journey",

Wendy Morton, Conservative MP for Aldridge-Brownhills.

And Jack Dromey, Labour MP for Birmingham Erdington.

Good to have you both here with us today.

Just three hours before she signed that letter to Donald Tusk,

Theresa May was in Birmingham, for what we were told

was "a vote of confidence in the Midlands Engine,

In theory, the biggest-ever trade forum staged jointly by the British

and Qatari governments had nothing whatsoever to do with Article 50.

In practice, a ?5 billion injection into Birmingham Airport,

the NEC, education, healthcare, and cyber security projects

clearly gave one of her Cabinet colleagues grounds for hope,

that the world won't end in two years' time.

Britain is open for international trade.

In fact, we are a champion of free trade.

When you look at the world as it is developing now,

90% of global growth is actually being generated

The fact that they have brought the biggest ever inwards investment

delegation in our history to Birmingham is a real testament

to the opportunities and to the transformation

It certainly felt like a very sincere demonstration of confidence

in post-Brexit Britain, and the Midlands in particular.

Inward investment into Birmingham and Britain is very welcome,

But very big problems lie ahead for us at the next stages.

Crucially, it's about the deal that we now strike.

I was strongly for Remain, but we've got to try and make Brexit

That means certain fundamentals, one of which is access to the single

Because it is our single biggest market.

If we lose that then, for example, the Jaguar

workers in my constituency, currently producing cars,

exporting into Europe, will see tariff barriers,

So there are key issues that we have got a crack at the next stages.

And that is the very point that Doctor Ralf Speth, the boss of JLR,

After all, yes, we have a trade surplus with China uniquely in this

region, and JLR is a big part of that story.

But he's worried about access to his biggest markets,

Just going back to your point about the Qatar business visit,

I think that really shows confidence in the West Midlands and

Whilst I did vote remain, it was an unbalanced decision.

I take the view now that it is for us as a region and the country to go

out and get the best deal for the UK.

On Ralf Speth's point about access to Europe for the JLR.

Absolutely, and it's not just about JLR, it's about the businesses

I come from a business background myself, so I know

But there are businesses in my constituency as well,

so I will be wanting to make sure we get the best for those as well.

I think this is an opportunity that we must go out

In this age of ultra-fast fibre-optic broadband,

there was something very quaint about the way Britain's Ambassador

to the EU, the increasingly famous son of Leamington Spa,

Sir Tim Barrow, hand-delivered that letter from Theresa May

to Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council.

So now we can expect two years' of talk about roller-coaster rides,

I wonder if our political reporter, Sian Grzeszczyk,

However you describe this, there's no turning back now.

And as journeys go, some are straightforward.

Others, well, are a bit of a rollercoaster.

And now that Brexit has been triggered, the journey truly begins.

Brexiteers and Remainers are all speculating

about the ups and downs on the track ahead.

But with so many unknowns, no-one can tell for certain just how

things will look when we do get off the EU ride in two years' time.

The only way is up, according to the owner

of Drayton Manor theme park - he voted out.

So what does he hope will be the benefits for his business?

Cutting out red tape, if we can, would be wonderful.

The tourism industry is huge, it's the fourth largest industry

It's very important for us to be able to get on with our jobs,

instead of having to continually look at health and safety

that is ludicrous because it's come from the EU.

There are concerns about the timescale -

is two years long enough to negotiate a good enough deal

and to dodge things like expensive tarriffs?

I voted to stay in, but now it's happened,

I just think we've got to make the most of it.

The country's not going to fall to bits, I don't think.

Over in Aston, Jason Wouhra's cash and carry business

is already losing thousands because of the weakened pound.

He thinks there are a number of risks

if the UK doesn't get a good enough deal.

The risks are it becomes a lot more difficult to export,

a bigger paper trail, more customs, more tariffs,

And that will make things more and more difficult.

I think that we will find if the right deal isn't struck,

UK businesses will become a little bit more insular and probably

At the moment, with our economy, we need to export

It is a plan for a new, deep and special partnership between

And as Prime Minister triggered Article 50,

this Midlands Brexiteer had plenty to say.

We were promised death of the first-born by Friday,

we were promised a plague of frogs and locusts and all this.

The fall in sterling has really helped because, of course,

what it's done is it's made how exports cheaper around the world.

And it actually made sure that we've reached out more

to the rest of the world, and that's no bad thing.

Whilst many Brexiteers are probably celebrating with a pint,

Remainers are concerned about things spinning out of control.

Certainly no joyride, these negotiations.

And also here with us here today, Sir Peter Rigby, who has described

He's the Founder, Chief Executive and Chairman of the Rigby Group,

which includes aviation, financial services,

property and information technology businesses.

You saw there what Digby Jones said - no plague of locusts.

Well, I was very much a Remainer, Patrick, driven mostly by the fact

that I spent many years creating a European business.

20 countries, thousands of people in the technology field.

The thought of losing that market position was of great concern.

It's a market, at the end of the day, worth 500 billion.

Providing we haven't lost the relationship with that,

and that is the key negotiating stance for me, then I think

Business is very pragmatic, and I am too.

The desire to remain is left behind, and we are now

And indeed you do speak with the experience of wanting that

ride righty of business interests that you mentioned there.

Liam Fox, when I was talking to him that at that forum,

also said to me that 90% of the global growth at the moment

So there is plenty left out there of opportunities

There is, but it's going to take an awful lot of Australias

and New Zealands to make up for a 500 billion

I was with Liam Fox ten days ago, in Vietnam, where he came

to open my new global call centre in Vietnam.

Of course, we are trying hard to entice nations like Vietnam,

but they do 4 billion only with us in trade.

So we certainly should be working these markets,

At the end of the day, we've also got to protect our

When governments go into difficult negotiations, you will often hear

ministers sort of talking expectations down a little bit

in the hope that, in the end, they can pull the rabbit out

This time, expectations seem to be managed upwards,

Does that surprise you, the way it's being handled?

But free and open access to markets are the objective?

Yes, I don't think it's quite as easy as that.

I mean, we've got to gear up and step up and invest to do

Therefore our businesses here need protection, they need support,

they need financial support as well, and encouragement to do this.

The incentives that I'm offered to redecorate one of my Paris

operations to northern France in terms of salary support,

in terms of office accommodation and so on are enormous.

Could you put a cost on the likely cost of Brexit?

A number on it, as far as your businesses are concerned?

No, we are positive about this, let me make that quite clear.

We have just recorded our best ever year's trading in 40 years.

Having said that, in technology, I know that many decisions have been

shelved, many long-term investments have been shelved because what

And indeed uncertainty in spades is what this process over

the next how many years, practically, is going to bring us.

So what would you say to reassure people?

I take a very pragmatic view, like Sir Peter.

There will be challenges along the way.

But, at the same time, we have got to go out

We've got to go out and seek out not just to further develop

relationships with had with those EU partners that we had

when we were within the EU, because they will want to trade

But also we must use is as an opportunity to look

beyond Europe and look for new markets.

Let me point out to you one thing that struck me

in the Prime Minister's statement the other day, that worker

protection is one of the issues that Labour is expressing,

Theresa May said that she gets that, and the Government may in certain

areas seek to strengthen worker protection outside the EU.

That's an important political reaching out to working people up

in your constituency, I suggest.

You'll forgive me if, from bitter experience -

I took a case to the European court of justice to win protection under

the transfer of undertakings for 6 million public servants,

The Brexiteers are led by those who for years have argued

against what they called red tape but I call workers' writes.

Indeed, in the piece just now, to hear health and safety

Health and safety is the difference between people living and dying,

Somebody would say that is a reason why we should have

There are differences between what we would describe

as red tape and what you would describe as workers' rights.

The repeal Bill is going to bring those rights that are currently

in Europe to the UK, so then we will have our

own sovereign power, we can look at those.

I will wait and see because I'm quite certain

that the Prime Minister really does get this piece.

At that Drayton Manor theme park, I was interested to discover

that there were actually 23 different nationalities working

This raises the whole question of recruitment and access,

movement of people, which is also part of this big negotiation.

One of our business interests is hotels.

I would say that 70% of the staff are EU nationals.

They are very good at what they do, they have a real work ethic,

To lose those people would massively damage the leisure industry,

So somehow, we certainly got to keep those people we have here.

There were 700,000 people working in hospitality in this country

I was talking to a major employer, one of our vice chancellors

here in Birmingham, in the last 48 hours.

They already saying that they are having

real problems retaining, key people with key skills

who are going back home because they don't see

Where do you see this country in, let's say, five years' time?

Five years is a long time, isn't it, in this day and age.

As far as we're concerned, we will continue to invest

and look after our businesses and develop them.

I think the nature of the business will change.

For example, we are investing heavily in R

We are interested in cognitive computing,

In five years' time, that will be absolutely across the piece,

and that will bring its own problems with it too, by the way.

In particular, thanks to you for being with us today, Sir Peter.

"A cabal of right-wing Labour MPs from the West Midlands."

That's the scathing description by the Unite union leader,

Len McCluskey, of what he sees as smear tactics,

designed to undermine his re-election campaign.

It follows a call by John Spellar, Labour MP for Warley,

for an investigation into some of the union branches

As Nick Watson explains, it all revives memories

of the bitter battles which tore Labour apart in the '80s.

After weeks of campaigning, voting is now underway.

But this election isn't just about the future of Unite,

it's also about the future of the Labour party.

Len McCluskey is the left-wing leader seeking re-election -

Gerard Coyne is supported by so-called moderate Labour MPs -

many of them from the West Midlands -

who want to see the back of Mr McCluskey and Mr Corbyn.

It's time for our union to be focused on matters that

actually our members are concerned about.

That's about protecting them at work, improving their pay

and conditions, rather than messing around in Westminster politics.

Labour's deputy leader, West Bromwich East MP Tom Watson

recently alleged there was a plot involving Unite and the Corbyn

supporting Momentum group to take control of Labour.

Now Warley MP John Spellar has entered the fray.

He's reported Unite to the trade union certification officer,

suggesting irregularities in some of the branches declaring

He won his battle is to expel the hard left from the Labour Party

in the 1980s, but does he think he'll be successful this time?

It's only when we had won that battle inside the Labour Party that,

in 1997, we won the confidence of the British people

On a visit to the region on Friday to back BMW workers,

There is a cabal of West Midlands MPs who are attempting to abuse

the democracy of Unite, and they are trying

to turn our election into a completely separate election,

an election to do with the Labour Party.

These individuals are skilled in the dark arts.

It's in their DNA, they've been doing it for years.

The result of the Unite election will be announced later this month.

For Labour, it could be a defining moment every bit as important

And there's a third candidate in this Unite leadership election.

And Mr McCluskey also confirmed Tom Watson

and Jack Dromey were in that Right Wing West Midlands

"Labour cabal", which he branded "shameful and disgraceful."

It's all getting a bit personal, isn't it?

You've written a column in the Birmingham Mail

in which you have a real go at Len McCluskey, saying

that he is seeking to take control of the Labour Party, dooming the

When he describes me as being part of a

right-wing cabal, I was born on the left

But the more important thing is this.

Unions have never been more important than they are now.

What we need is strong leadership which focuses on why

a union exists, and that its members in the world of work.

Gerard is one of the most outstanding trade

unionists that I have ever worked with.

I believe he is capable of leading a renaissance of trade

For me, as an old union man who came through

the ranks of the Transport and General and then ultimately the

deputy of Unite, I want to see the union succeed.

Len's problem is he is focused on control.

Control of the union and control

For me, it is about the union, not the Labour Party.

But Len, for too long, has focused on the

Labour Party, the Labour Party, the Labour Party.

It's about time we focused on the union, the union, the union.

The problem with that is both sides are saying this is all about

the union and not meddling in Westminster politics.

But it actually is surely seen absolutely as a battle

for the leadership, the very future of the Labour Party itself.

Given, if you look at the links between the various people

involved in this, it clear as daylight

that that is what this is all about, isn't it?

Len has been focused on control of the Labour

Party, and I'm not to sure that he's that fussed about whether or not

the Labour Party ever again forms of Parliament.

Ultimately, that means, in the world of work,

strong and effective trade union organisations that can stand

In the corridors of power, the support of

the country is needed to form a government.

I don't want to see working people let down by us being

You resigned a shadow ministerial job in order to

try and accelerate Jeremy Corbyn's departure from leadership,

and yet he just seems to get stronger in the party,

the more people in your cabal, if that is the word, oppose him.

We've got a real problem with that, there's no doubt.

It's not appropriate just to personalise it

Right now, we are not regarded to be a credible

We have got to rebuild and win a fresh

the trust of the British people because I do not want to see, with

the greatest of respect to you, Wendy, an eternal opposition for

the Labour Party and eternal government

Do you think they are right when they say that the union should

focus exquisitely on their members and not on meddling in politics?

Jack mentioned the words strong leadership, and I think what we're

seeing here is a battle within the unions, a lack

of leadership for both unions and within the Labour Party,

to sort out with his cabal what the way forward is.

You contrast that with the strong leadership that we

have within government, at a time when this country, as we recognise

and acknowledge, faces challenges, we need strong leadership.

So what else has been making the news here over this past week?

is brought to us today by Ben Godfrey.

The Asphalt Industry Alliance says it would cost councils a staggering

?1.25 billion to fill in the region's potholes.

A report to the board running Shropshire's hospitals

says Telford's A may have to close overnight

to the West Midlands mayoral election,

Labour's candidate launched his manifesto

in the Black Country with a promise to boost apprenticeships.

I'm saying, for every ?1 million that we invest in infrastructure in

the West Midlands, we need to deliver on apprenticeship to improve

the skill of our young people. Wolverhampton Labour MP Pat McFadden

has written a letter signed by 85 MPs and MEPs defending

the BBC's Brexit coverage after Solihull Tory Julian Knight wrote

one saying it was too pessimistic. And BMW workers at the Hams Hall

engine plant in Warwickshire have voted for strike action

in protest at plans to close their

final salary pension scheme. The threat of a strike there looms

at BMW. The usable that strike? BMW is a profitable, successful Company.

Key to that success is its workforce. It is wrong to close the

pension scheme. I'm behind the workers. Do you have sympathy for

people who are losing salary late did pensions? I do have simply with

those workers, but it is a commercial matter to be resolved

between the employers and those on strike. I would hope that they would

come to an amicable arrangement. Briefly, these are often seen as

gold-plated pensions will stop increasingly for many out there,

they are a thing of the past. Why should these workers be different?

Because security and dignity in retirement matters would begin work

all your life for a company and you are key to its success, you are

entitled in your old age two and a decent pension.

My thanks to Wendy Morton and Jack Dromey.

Finally from me, a word about a special programme

I'll be presenting in a couple of weeks' time.

A Mayor For The West Midlands is our BBC Midlands Debate show,

in which the main contenders will go head-to-head

Join us on Thursday the 20th of April at 10:45pm,

that's immediately after the News, here on BBC One.

And Sunday Politics will return after its Easter break,

This, though, is where we rejoin Andrew Neil.

So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes

Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?

And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,

To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford

by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.

Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will

it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can

predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning

with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not

mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.

Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in

business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why

we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under

Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you

do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up

lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you

used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get

back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a

mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in

this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places

like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the

country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the

Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic

areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well

which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part

as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has

taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is

fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are

discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if

they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.

If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your

vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of

representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we

have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124

seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality

of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very

effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is

not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,

that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it

not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the

debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is

something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people

the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually

produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the

foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the

Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social

democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I

do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party

together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own

decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you

saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a

consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing

could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is

moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in

2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look

at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax

changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to

?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate

threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from

currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,

freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax

credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an

impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two

children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched

the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit

changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third

or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The

Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It

is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I

have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith

Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody

should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the

state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by

better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly

less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have

to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her

other language and the role of the government and the state when she

sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government

conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she

says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not

what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would

not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a

much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of

progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when

George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they

were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this

government was going to meet the demand for public services when it

has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do

now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare

issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution

Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which

has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from

the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.

Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the

losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem

for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her

narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about

managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have

at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still

saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and

spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle

classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely

going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to

mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was

told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came

up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions

involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and

benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to

fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you

find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance

rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of

the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an

early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an

albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in

income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel

duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going

to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they

end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call

stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up

in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of

the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to

have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would

like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best

argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at

the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives

feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the

need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very

interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is

trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and

spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.

Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that

demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The

Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to

India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not

know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The

prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest

answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one

because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms

will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to

trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always

go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in

a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.

Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get

out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day

after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and

they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal

talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a

symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.

Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have

run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the

Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the

Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.

Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.

As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,

we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"

I think I've died and gone to heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin.