Browse content similar to 16/02/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be | :00:38. | :00:44. | |
extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent | :00:45. | :00:47. | |
Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the | :00:48. | :00:51. | |
European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant | :00:52. | :00:56. | |
development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has | :00:57. | :01:00. | |
the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow | :01:01. | :01:09. | |
joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election | :01:10. | :01:17. | |
The blame game over flooding. A local MP calls the chair of the | :01:18. | :01:20. | |
Environment Agency all sorts of rude look at his decisions and priorities | :01:21. | :01:22. | |
with the help of his chief of staff. With me, the best and brightest | :01:23. | :01:41. | |
political panel in the business The twits will be as incessant and | :01:42. | :01:43. | |
probably as welcome as the recent rain. A significant new development | :01:44. | :01:48. | |
in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the | :01:49. | :01:49. | |
President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel | :01:50. | :01:56. | |
Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that | :01:57. | :01:59. | |
an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28 | :02:03. | :02:07. | |
member states and that would be in his words, extremely difficult, if | :02:08. | :02:10. | |
not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out | :02:11. | :02:15. | |
of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very | :02:16. | :02:21. | |
important, the application to the union would have to be approved by | :02:22. | :02:25. | |
all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the | :02:26. | :02:32. | |
secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your | :02:33. | :02:37. | |
democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely | :02:38. | :02:40. | |
difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have | :02:41. | :02:45. | |
a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that | :02:46. | :02:53. | |
Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be | :02:58. | :03:00. | |
externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't | :03:01. | :03:07. | |
want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive | :03:08. | :03:10. | |
into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex | :03:11. | :03:14. | |
Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with | :03:20. | :03:22. | |
England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last | :03:23. | :03:29. | |
week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically | :03:30. | :03:41. | |
get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that | :03:42. | :03:47. | |
they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get | :03:48. | :03:54. | |
the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
significant than the application? The reference to Spain is | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active | :04:03. | :04:07. | |
area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other | :04:08. | :04:11. | |
countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no | :04:12. | :04:14. | |
reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by | :04:15. | :04:20. | |
letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it | :04:21. | :04:24. | |
does get in, it solves the currency problem because all new members have | :04:25. | :04:31. | |
to accept the Euro? At the moment, the SNP are rejecting that quite | :04:32. | :04:33. | |
strongly. What an interesting intervention today. However, I know | :04:34. | :04:39. | |
that those arguing that Scotland should stay in the union are worried | :04:40. | :04:44. | |
that the polls are tightening. A lot of these interventions, parents care | :04:45. | :04:51. | |
arguments, they don't look like they are convincing the Scottish people. | :04:52. | :04:57. | |
We haven't had any polls yet? We haven't, but we have since the | :04:58. | :05:00. | |
currency debate was reignited in the last few weeks and it shows the | :05:01. | :05:05. | |
polls tightening slightly. I think Alistair Darling's campaign would | :05:06. | :05:08. | |
prefer to be much further ahead at the stage. They are worried that | :05:09. | :05:11. | |
these technical commandments are not having much sway. Are the polls | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
tightening slightly? They could be within the statistical margin for | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of | :05:23. | :05:27. | |
reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in | :05:28. | :05:30. | |
the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a | :05:31. | :05:33. | |
member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both | :05:34. | :05:39. | |
of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already | :05:40. | :05:46. | |
told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is | :05:47. | :05:49. | |
playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister, | :05:50. | :05:54. | |
John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the | :05:55. | :05:58. | |
constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was | :05:59. | :06:01. | |
also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A | :06:02. | :06:06. | |
second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last | :06:07. | :06:09. | |
minute. The leader of the biggest | :06:10. | :06:13. | |
underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members | :06:14. | :06:18. | |
into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the | :06:19. | :06:23. | |
national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership | :06:24. | :06:27. | |
has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when | :06:28. | :06:30. | |
union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has | :06:31. | :06:35. | |
seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the | :06:41. | :06:43. | |
beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100 | :06:44. | :06:48. | |
million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has | :06:49. | :06:52. | |
threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes. | :06:53. | :06:57. | |
Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview. | :06:58. | :07:05. | |
Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the | :07:06. | :07:13. | |
moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of | :07:14. | :07:18. | |
all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it | :07:19. | :07:20. | |
quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices | :07:21. | :07:24. | |
would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone | :07:25. | :07:28. | |
wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep | :07:29. | :07:31. | |
them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not | :07:32. | :07:37. | |
the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking | :07:38. | :07:40. | |
offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a | :07:41. | :07:44. | |
booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness. | :07:48. | :07:54. | |
Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV | :07:55. | :07:59. | |
that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time | :08:00. | :08:04. | |
people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed. | :08:05. | :08:07. | |
People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit | :08:08. | :08:11. | |
behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent, | :08:12. | :08:14. | |
however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they | :08:15. | :08:20. | |
were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out | :08:21. | :08:26. | |
of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket | :08:27. | :08:29. | |
offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind | :08:30. | :08:34. | |
and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the | :08:35. | :08:38. | |
underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They | :08:39. | :08:43. | |
are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers? | :08:44. | :08:49. | |
Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got | :08:50. | :08:52. | |
some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a | :08:53. | :08:55. | |
whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in | :08:56. | :08:58. | |
decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million | :08:59. | :09:02. | |
people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per | :09:03. | :09:06. | |
day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We | :09:07. | :09:11. | |
are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more | :09:12. | :09:14. | |
people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming | :09:15. | :09:19. | |
home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people | :09:20. | :09:21. | |
drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of | :09:22. | :09:29. | |
the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I | :09:30. | :09:33. | |
want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I | :09:34. | :09:40. | |
think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because | :09:41. | :09:44. | |
you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what | :09:45. | :09:50. | |
that has got to do with it. Let s get every editor of the daily | :09:51. | :09:53. | |
newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to | :09:54. | :09:57. | |
know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that... | :09:58. | :10:02. | |
You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and | :10:03. | :10:05. | |
follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be | :10:21. | :10:27. | |
?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never | :10:28. | :10:31. | |
mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what | :10:32. | :10:35. | |
you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning I | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot | :10:44. | :10:51. | |
of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be | :10:56. | :10:58. | |
doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is all | :11:07. | :11:10. | |
of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they | :11:11. | :11:15. | |
have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to | :11:16. | :11:19. | |
do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for | :11:20. | :11:22. | |
your members and why union membership has been rising, people | :11:23. | :11:24. | |
want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost | :11:25. | :11:29. | |
for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone | :11:30. | :11:36. | |
believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are | :11:37. | :11:38. | |
going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on | :11:39. | :11:42. | |
the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary | :11:53. | :11:57. | |
for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a | :11:58. | :12:03. | |
teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had | :12:04. | :12:09. | |
to live through 24 strikes in 1 years to push up your members | :12:10. | :12:17. | |
wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by | :12:18. | :12:23. | |
conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the | :12:24. | :12:26. | |
teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the | :12:27. | :12:31. | |
end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up | :12:32. | :12:36. | |
the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are | :12:37. | :12:40. | |
fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all | :12:41. | :12:43. | |
support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars | :12:44. | :12:47. | |
around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members | :12:48. | :12:52. | |
pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if | :12:53. | :12:56. | |
we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care Of | :13:01. | :13:06. | |
course they care, I've said before that I apologise to the troubling | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
public for the dispute that took place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It | :13:11. | :13:17. | |
two to tango. If the boy never imposed terms and conditions on us | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
against our will... But you've got great terms and conditions! But it's | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
a constant battle, they are trying to change them. Drivers are having | :13:26. | :13:32. | |
their pay going up to ?50,000. You said they are making it worse, it is | :13:33. | :13:37. | |
going up. They are trying to make things worse for workers. You said | :13:38. | :13:40. | |
at the start of the interview that the tube strike cost ?100 million in | :13:41. | :13:45. | |
two days. It means that when members go to work for two days it is worth | :13:46. | :13:49. | |
?100 million. That demonstrates what they are worth. Only a fighting | :13:50. | :13:54. | |
trade union can defend workers out there. Your members should enjoy | :13:55. | :13:57. | |
what you have got for them, because it's not going to last, is it? | :13:58. | :14:03. | |
Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and | :14:09. | :14:11. | |
the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of | :14:12. | :14:16. | |
it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out | :14:17. | :14:24. | |
for new technology. But for who To put people on the dole, so they | :14:25. | :14:28. | |
can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so | :14:29. | :14:32. | |
everybody benefits, lower fares better service and better terms and | :14:33. | :14:36. | |
conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the | :14:37. | :14:39. | |
underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute | :14:40. | :14:43. | |
technology for Labour. And that s what it's going to do, it is closing | :14:44. | :14:48. | |
the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless | :14:49. | :14:54. | |
trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this | :14:55. | :15:02. | |
because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming | :15:03. | :15:12. | |
in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it | :15:13. | :15:18. | |
is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it | :15:19. | :15:24. | |
breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be | :15:25. | :15:27. | |
stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who | :15:28. | :15:35. | |
cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality | :15:36. | :15:40. | |
is simple, it is a nonsense. It s not going to happen because it is a | :15:41. | :15:45. | |
Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless | :15:46. | :15:54. | |
but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small | :15:55. | :16:00. | |
section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over | :16:06. | :16:21. | |
their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created | :16:22. | :16:26. | |
all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many | :16:27. | :16:32. | |
people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and | :16:38. | :16:41. | |
greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better | :16:42. | :16:46. | |
service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the | :16:47. | :16:52. | |
ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single | :16:53. | :16:59. | |
ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes | :17:00. | :17:06. | |
of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long | :17:07. | :17:12. | |
transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket. | :17:13. | :17:17. | |
The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is | :17:18. | :17:23. | |
that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people | :17:24. | :17:29. | |
having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use | :17:30. | :17:34. | |
the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the | :17:35. | :17:42. | |
offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I | :17:43. | :17:51. | |
struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages. | :17:52. | :17:56. | |
They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is | :17:57. | :18:04. | |
press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being | :18:05. | :18:08. | |
and what makes the London Underground so precious is that | :18:09. | :18:15. | |
people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out | :18:16. | :18:19. | |
on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the | :18:20. | :18:24. | |
concourse and they will have machines. The fact is that London | :18:25. | :18:28. | |
Underground did a risk assessment of closing down their booking offices | :18:29. | :18:32. | |
and it is clear that if you are disabled, if you are partially | :18:33. | :18:36. | |
sighted, London Underground becomes more dangerous. You are posing the | :18:37. | :18:43. | |
closing of ticket offices, opposing driverless trains, when you opposed | :18:44. | :18:52. | |
to the Oyster card when it came in? No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal | :18:53. | :19:06. | |
with it. It is not the only way They should supplement the staff and | :19:07. | :19:11. | |
the job. If more people used the London Underground system, you want | :19:12. | :19:17. | |
more staff to deal with them. Let's look at your mandate to strike. Of | :19:18. | :19:25. | |
your members who work on the Tube, only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30% | :19:26. | :19:34. | |
voted for the strike, so 70% actually didn't vote to strike of | :19:35. | :19:39. | |
your members, but the strike went ahead. Isn't it right to have a | :19:40. | :19:45. | |
higher threshold before you can cause this disruption? It would be | :19:46. | :19:49. | |
lovely if everyone voted but the Tories took that away. We used to | :19:50. | :19:55. | |
have ballots at the workplace. What I'm trying to say to you is that we | :19:56. | :20:01. | |
used to have a ballot box at the workplace and the turnouts were | :20:02. | :20:08. | |
higher. The Tories believe that if they can have a secret ballot where | :20:09. | :20:13. | |
ballot papers went to people's home addresses, where they could be | :20:14. | :20:18. | |
persuaded by the bosses, votes would be different. Let's go back to the | :20:19. | :20:23. | |
workplace ballot because you get a bigger turnout. Will the RMT | :20:24. | :20:31. | |
re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I have no intention to. We got | :20:32. | :20:35. | |
expelled from the Labour Party. But you will give some money to the | :20:36. | :20:44. | |
Labour councils? Those that support our basic policies get money, we | :20:45. | :20:53. | |
don't give money directly to MPs, we give it to constituencies. Are you | :20:54. | :20:58. | |
going to stand for re-election in 2016? I might do, I might not. You | :20:59. | :21:08. | |
haven't decided yet? No, but more than likely I will do. And will you | :21:09. | :21:15. | |
stand again as an anti-EU candidate? Yes, I am standing in London, and | :21:16. | :21:22. | |
right across, completely different to UKIP's policies. They are | :21:23. | :21:27. | |
anti-European, they believe all of the faults of Europe are down to the | :21:28. | :21:33. | |
immigrants. We are anti-European Union. If London Underground is as | :21:34. | :21:40. | |
badly run as you think, why don t you run for mayor? That is down the | :21:41. | :21:47. | |
road, it has not come up yet. I m not ruling anything out. I'm not | :21:48. | :21:52. | |
ruling out getting your job on the Sunday Politics. You have got to | :21:53. | :21:57. | |
retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to | :21:58. | :22:04. | |
renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have | :22:05. | :22:10. | |
your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if | :22:11. | :22:21. | |
you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later | :22:22. | :22:28. | |
in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel | :22:29. | :22:33. | |
Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish | :22:34. | :22:39. | |
Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now | :22:40. | :22:45. | |
heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I | :22:46. | :22:52. | |
think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He | :22:53. | :23:00. | |
compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member, | :23:01. | :23:06. | |
Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to | :23:07. | :23:12. | |
reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are | :23:13. | :23:15. | |
compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work | :23:21. | :23:26. | |
about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership | :23:27. | :23:30. | |
of the European Union and that position has now been explained and | :23:31. | :23:36. | |
debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are | :23:37. | :23:49. | |
talking about the president of the European commission and we have | :23:50. | :23:52. | |
spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning, | :23:53. | :23:57. | |
it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that | :23:58. | :24:06. | |
Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they | :24:07. | :24:13. | |
will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it | :24:14. | :24:18. | |
if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state | :24:19. | :24:22. | |
of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish | :24:23. | :24:29. | |
membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if | :24:30. | :24:34. | |
there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an | :24:35. | :24:38. | |
independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue. | :24:39. | :24:43. | |
That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no | :24:44. | :24:48. | |
stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union | :24:49. | :24:51. | |
because it is important that Scotland is already part of the | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union | :24:57. | :25:01. | |
and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation | :25:02. | :25:06. | |
in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that | :25:07. | :25:16. | |
David Cameron wants to have in 017. It has not been a great week for | :25:17. | :25:22. | |
you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has | :25:23. | :25:28. | |
been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel | :25:29. | :25:32. | |
Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it | :25:33. | :25:39. | |
has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the | :25:40. | :25:45. | |
Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within | :25:46. | :25:48. | |
Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is | :25:49. | :25:57. | |
Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect | :25:58. | :26:01. | |
comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence | :26:02. | :26:08. | |
and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves | :26:09. | :26:14. | |
your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We | :26:15. | :26:21. | |
have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be | :26:22. | :26:29. | |
to establish the currency union You would have to adopt the euro. That's | :26:30. | :26:36. | |
not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for | :26:37. | :26:40. | |
two years before you can apply for membership and an independent | :26:41. | :26:43. | |
Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or | :26:44. | :26:48. | |
the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our | :26:49. | :26:52. | |
arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests | :26:53. | :26:59. | |
of Scotland and the UK. Thank you for joining us this morning. | :27:00. | :27:05. | |
This week's least surprising news was that Labour won the safe seat of | :27:06. | :27:08. | |
Wythenshawe and Sale East in a by-election, following the death of | :27:09. | :27:11. | |
the MP Paul Goggins. With the result so predictable, all eyes were on | :27:12. | :27:14. | |
whether this would be the sixth time this parliament that UKIP would come | :27:15. | :27:17. | |
second. And whether they'd chip away at Labour's vote, not just the | :27:18. | :27:21. | |
Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed up all night to find out what it all | :27:22. | :27:31. | |
meant. Forget the hype. Forget the theorising. And yes - everyone has a | :27:32. | :27:42. | |
theory. UKIP are learning from us. What have they picked up from you? | :27:43. | :27:49. | |
To be silly. Thanks to this week's by-election we've got some hard | :27:50. | :27:52. | |
evidence in paper form that helps answer the question: How are UKIP | :27:53. | :27:55. | |
doing? Turns out the answer is well, but not well enough to beat Labour. | :27:56. | :28:05. | |
I'm therefore claim -- declare that Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have | :28:06. | :28:11. | |
come second and increased their share of the vote quite | :28:12. | :28:13. | |
significantly. But their performance isn't as good as their performances | :28:14. | :28:16. | |
in some of the other by-elections this parliament. Just don't suggest | :28:17. | :28:19. | |
to them that their bandwagon has ground to a halt. A week ago you'd | :28:20. | :28:30. | |
told me you were going to win, what happened? No, I didn't, I said I | :28:31. | :28:39. | |
wanted to win. My mistake. How are you feeling? It is a Labour | :28:40. | :28:43. | |
stronghold, we always knew it was going to be a fight. Labour were | :28:44. | :28:50. | |
running scared of letting us present our arguments. UKIP's campaign in | :28:51. | :28:54. | |
Wythenshawe didn't point to the right but to the left, with leaflets | :28:55. | :28:57. | |
that branded Labour as a party of millionaires who didn't care about | :28:58. | :29:00. | |
the working class. It wasn't a winning strategy but it did help | :29:01. | :29:04. | |
them beat the Tories who focused on dog mess and potholes instead. | :29:05. | :29:09. | |
Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford from Manchester Uni thinks they | :29:10. | :29:15. | |
could be on the right track. He s analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP | :29:16. | :29:18. | |
voters for a new book, which could confound the received wisdom about | :29:19. | :29:29. | |
the party. The common media image of the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy | :29:30. | :29:36. | |
faced golf club and -- member from the south-east of the UK and many | :29:37. | :29:42. | |
UKIP activists do resemble that stereotype to some extent, they do | :29:43. | :29:46. | |
pick up a lot of activists from the Conservative party, but UKIP voters | :29:47. | :29:51. | |
are older, more working class, more likely to live in Northern, urban | :29:52. | :29:57. | |
areas, and they are much more anti-system than anti-EU. And | :29:58. | :30:00. | |
they're precisely the voters that the Tory MP David Mowat needs if | :30:01. | :30:04. | |
he's to hold on to his narrow majority in the constituency just | :30:05. | :30:17. | |
down the road. Do you have a UKIP strategy in your seat? Our UKIP | :30:18. | :30:20. | |
strategy is to point out that if they want a referendum on if they | :30:21. | :30:24. | |
want to be in the EU or not, there is one way to get it, for the | :30:25. | :30:27. | |
Conservatives to form their next government and for me to be their | :30:28. | :30:33. | |
MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy what they want? I'm not sure it will | :30:34. | :30:39. | |
be accidental. People need to realise that if Ed Miliband is the | :30:40. | :30:42. | |
Prime Minister, there will be no referendum on the EU and UKIP may | :30:43. | :30:47. | |
have made their point but they would not have got their referendum. Over | :30:48. | :30:55. | |
at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up time. Not helping, Nigel? I had | :30:56. | :31:03. | |
major surgery on the 19th of November and I am still weak as a | :31:04. | :31:07. | |
kitten. I can barely lift a pint with my right hand, it is as serious | :31:08. | :31:11. | |
as that. The answer is, Carreon chaps, you're all doing a very good | :31:12. | :31:16. | |
job. There will be carrying on to the European elections in May, which | :31:17. | :31:20. | |
will provide more evidence of if the UKIP and wagon is powering on or if | :31:21. | :31:26. | |
it is just parked. -- bandwagon With me now is the Conservative MEP | :31:27. | :31:31. | |
Vicky fraud and UKIP director of medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He | :31:32. | :31:35. | |
will also be a candidate in the upcoming European elections. You | :31:36. | :31:37. | |
came second in Manchester, but it was not a close second. -- Vicky | :31:38. | :31:44. | |
Ford. There is nothing that is a game changer? I think it is very | :31:45. | :31:50. | |
unusual for any insurgent party like the liberals used to be, to | :31:51. | :31:54. | |
actually win a safe seat of the opposition. Those shocks, going back | :31:55. | :32:04. | |
to Walkington etc, it tended to be winning seats against an unpopular | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
government. We did extraordinarily well in Wythenshawe. Labour | :32:10. | :32:13. | |
compressed the campaign down to the shortest possible time and maxed out | :32:14. | :32:16. | |
the postal vote. Whatever we think about Labour, they do have an | :32:17. | :32:20. | |
efficient machine, lots of union activists signed a lot of people | :32:21. | :32:26. | |
with a lot of know-how. It pushed you into third place and showed the | :32:27. | :32:30. | |
increasing irrelevance of the Tories in the North? Tory minded voters in | :32:31. | :32:34. | |
the North Sea more inclined to vote for UKIP than you? I think | :32:35. | :32:39. | |
by-elections are by-elections. The same day, we took a seat from Labour | :32:40. | :32:44. | |
in Birmingham. Well, that was a by-election as well, so we should | :32:45. | :32:49. | |
discount that as well. You should learn from them, and we need to look | :32:50. | :32:53. | |
forward to the elections in 201 . That is in May this year, when we | :32:54. | :32:57. | |
have a chance to really grab this change in Europe, grab this change | :32:58. | :33:04. | |
that we were talking about just now. You don't worry, particularly in the | :33:05. | :33:08. | |
north, if people want to vote against Labour your supporters are | :33:09. | :33:13. | |
drifting to UKIP? I think people vote UKIP in a European election and | :33:14. | :33:17. | |
they have done that for many years. They vote that because they want | :33:18. | :33:21. | |
change. The problem is, Patrick s party have had MEPs since 1999 and | :33:22. | :33:26. | |
they cannot deliver that change They can't because they don't have | :33:27. | :33:31. | |
seats in Westminster. It was on that video, the only way we are going to | :33:32. | :33:35. | |
get the change we want in Europe is to have that referendum and have the | :33:36. | :33:39. | |
renegotiation, and that means vote Tory. What do you say to that? Let's | :33:40. | :33:49. | |
get real, the Conservative Party has not won a Parliamentary majority in | :33:50. | :33:54. | |
22 years. But the only way you will get a referendum, if that is what | :33:55. | :33:58. | |
motivates you, and with UKIP it is, the only way it will be a referendum | :33:59. | :34:02. | |
on Europe in this country as if there is a majority Conservative | :34:03. | :34:05. | |
government at the next election And you could well stop that from | :34:06. | :34:09. | |
happening? I don't accept that. I believe, just as we forced David | :34:10. | :34:14. | |
Cameron and into a referendum pledge he explicitly ruled out making | :34:15. | :34:17. | |
before through our success, and I was there in PMQs, when his MPs | :34:18. | :34:20. | |
asked him and he said it would not be in the national interest because | :34:21. | :34:24. | |
he didn't want to leave, our electoral success forced that | :34:25. | :34:28. | |
pledge. I believe by winning the European action this May we can | :34:29. | :34:31. | |
force Ed Miliband, again, against his will, to match that pledge. | :34:32. | :34:35. | |
Then, whatever formulation varies in the next Parliament, we will get a | :34:36. | :34:42. | |
referendum. Labour MPs have just had the chance to say we want a | :34:43. | :34:46. | |
referendum. They refused to do it. The only way you are going to get a | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
renegotiation, a change in our relationship with Europe and an in | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
or out referendum is to have a Conservative Government. Please | :34:56. | :34:58. | |
UKIP, stop pretending that you can deliver, because you don't deliver | :34:59. | :35:04. | |
and you don't... We have delivered, we forced David Cameron to give a | :35:05. | :35:08. | |
pledge for a referendum he didn t want to make. We will know if you | :35:09. | :35:14. | |
are right about Ed Miliband or not, you will have to tell us going into | :35:15. | :35:17. | |
the campaign. If you are wrong, what do you do then? There are still | :35:18. | :35:23. | |
loads of reasons for people to vote UKIP. A referendum is one thing | :35:24. | :35:27. | |
David Cameron, and I asked him directly, thermally wants to stay | :35:28. | :35:33. | |
in. He wants to be the Edward Heath of the 21st century. The Tories are | :35:34. | :35:39. | |
going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed Miliband. What would you say to | :35:40. | :35:44. | |
that? I would say we have probably maxed out the Tory vote we are going | :35:45. | :35:46. | |
to get because David Cameron has been incredibly helpful in sending | :35:47. | :35:50. | |
them in our direction. Our potential for growth now, would we are | :35:51. | :35:57. | |
concentrating on, his those disenchanted former Labour voters | :35:58. | :36:01. | |
and more and more of them are coming towards us on things like | :36:02. | :36:07. | |
immigration and law and order. We want to renegotiate our relationship | :36:08. | :36:10. | |
with Europe. We need to have people who are going to turn up to | :36:11. | :36:13. | |
negotiate with people like Barroso. That meant a Prime Minister that is | :36:14. | :36:17. | |
not Ed Miliband but David Cameron. UKIP MEPs do not turn up to | :36:18. | :36:27. | |
defenders. If President Hollande is as good as his word and says there | :36:28. | :36:31. | |
will be no substantial renegotiation, certainly no treaty | :36:32. | :36:36. | |
change this side of 2017 when he is up for the election, what do you do | :36:37. | :36:42. | |
then? He is a French Socialist Prime Minister, I don't expect him to | :36:43. | :36:46. | |
agree. But you can't bring anything of substance back with these | :36:47. | :36:54. | |
negotiations. Then people will vote to leave. The Prime Minister has | :36:55. | :37:01. | |
been very clear that British public opinion is on a knife edge and | :37:02. | :37:04. | |
unless we get what we want from a renegotiation, we will leave. You | :37:05. | :37:10. | |
would vote to leave? Let's see what we get with the deal on the table in | :37:11. | :37:14. | |
2017. If the status quo was what we have today, I would vote to leave. | :37:15. | :37:19. | |
But I want to renegotiate. We will have to move on. For those viewers | :37:20. | :37:25. | |
lucky enough to live in the East of England, they will be seeing more of | :37:26. | :37:28. | |
Patrick in a moment. You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up | :37:29. | :37:32. | |
in just over 20 minutes, I will be talking about, what else, the | :37:33. | :37:35. | |
weather, with our Thank you, Andrew. Good morning and | :37:36. | :37:52. | |
welcome to the Sunday Politics here in the West. Once again, the | :37:53. | :37:55. | |
floodwaters have washed in another wave of politicians. But did the | :37:56. | :37:58. | |
arrival of the Westminster welly brigade make a jot of difference to | :37:59. | :38:02. | |
those waist deep in flood water As the political classes point the | :38:03. | :38:05. | |
finger of blame at each other, we will consider why we always need a | :38:06. | :38:09. | |
scapegoat in a crisis. Well, here to discuss this week's political | :38:10. | :38:12. | |
weather we have two darlings of the right. Conservative Jacob Rees`Mogg | :38:13. | :38:16. | |
has been dubbed by some as the right honourable member for the 19th | :38:17. | :38:19. | |
century. He is also the current MP for North East Somerset. And Gawain | :38:20. | :38:23. | |
Towler is a new face on a show. He is running for UKIP in May's | :38:24. | :38:26. | |
European elections. Welcome to you both. Let's start with overseas aid | :38:27. | :38:30. | |
and calls for that money to be used for flood victims here. What is the | :38:31. | :38:33. | |
justification for that? The justification is pretty simple. The | :38:34. | :38:36. | |
money that the Government raises for assistance of those in need is money | :38:37. | :38:39. | |
for assistance for those in need. It's not Bangladesh though, is it? | :38:40. | :38:43. | |
However bad it is? No, it is the UK and people in the UK are in need and | :38:44. | :38:48. | |
that's why we believe that in this crisis, in situations like this | :38:49. | :38:51. | |
that some of the money that is currently earmarked to be sent | :38:52. | :38:54. | |
abroad... And remember this is particularly development aid, not | :38:55. | :38:56. | |
humanitarian aid, there is a truism that it is for rich people in rich | :38:57. | :39:00. | |
countries trying to support poor people in poor countries. Better | :39:01. | :39:03. | |
that money is spent at home, looking after our own. Jake, the Prime | :39:04. | :39:06. | |
Minister has completely ruled that out? the Prime Minister has a | :39:07. | :39:09. | |
manifesto commitment to increase the overseas budget and won the | :39:10. | :39:12. | |
election. I never happened to believe that was a good promise I | :39:13. | :39:15. | |
think overseas aid is an inappropriate use of taxpayers' | :39:16. | :39:18. | |
money. I think the best way to get poor countries to be rich is to | :39:19. | :39:33. | |
trade with them. And that overseas aid is a matter for private charity, | :39:34. | :39:47. | |
not for taxpayer money. And the rain keeps on falling and there is still | :39:48. | :39:50. | |
no end in sight for those affected by the flooding. Tempers have been | :39:51. | :39:53. | |
getting frayed with many people including politicians, looking for | :39:54. | :39:56. | |
someone to blame. The Bridgwater MP has not minced his words, calling | :39:57. | :40:00. | |
the chair of the Environment Agency a g`i`t and threatening to flush his | :40:01. | :40:10. | |
head down the toilet. Ruth sent this support from the Somerset levels on | :40:11. | :40:15. | |
the blame game. You know, people said he was OK but I find him an | :40:16. | :40:19. | |
arrogant out`of`touch and a really rather sad man. It is fair to say | :40:20. | :40:24. | |
Ian Liddell Grainger and Lord Chris Smith aren't the best of mates. He | :40:25. | :40:29. | |
is an out of touch, arrogant man. He is a quango king of the worst type. | :40:30. | :40:33. | |
It's a no`brainer. He can't be that stupid. Ian Liddell Grainger isn't | :40:34. | :40:37. | |
the only one pointing the finger and the chair of the Environment Agency | :40:38. | :40:40. | |
isn't the only one at the receiving end. There are lots of others | :40:41. | :40:46. | |
responsible for fund work also. All are likely to be | :40:47. | :40:59. | |
All are likely to be sucked into the blame game as time goes on. This is | :41:00. | :41:05. | |
North Curry on the Somerset Levels, where some homes and businesses are | :41:06. | :41:08. | |
under water for the second time in two years. Local people are looking | :41:09. | :41:12. | |
for someone to blame. It is a coping strategy, I believe. It's so bad out | :41:13. | :41:17. | |
here. All the locals are saying it has never been anywhere near as bad | :41:18. | :41:20. | |
down here and I think having something to focus on, blame, it | :41:21. | :41:24. | |
helps. There's a lot of talk about blame. Do you blame anyone? Oh, | :41:25. | :41:29. | |
definitely the Environment Agency. After the 2012 flooding, they were | :41:30. | :41:32. | |
told by all the local people about the rivers needing dredging. They | :41:33. | :41:37. | |
took a gamble and it has failed and we are paying for the consequences | :41:38. | :41:41. | |
now. We all can't be wrong blaming the Environment Agency. Meeting | :41:42. | :41:44. | |
people like Keith, you can see why he wants someone to blame. Others | :41:45. | :41:50. | |
say that is not constructive. Phil Stones lived in North Curry for 25 | :41:51. | :41:54. | |
years. A former district councillor, he wants action, not nasty words. A | :41:55. | :41:59. | |
lot of people are in desperate circumstances and that's the natural | :42:00. | :42:02. | |
reaction, to look at who is responsible. And I think the time | :42:03. | :42:07. | |
will come for that, to look at how we got here and what we now need to | :42:08. | :42:11. | |
do to try and ensure we don't get here in the future. And he's not | :42:12. | :42:15. | |
convinced MPs speaking out like Ian Liddell Grainger are helpful. Some | :42:16. | :42:20. | |
of the things that Ian said are valid but I think he is focusing too | :42:21. | :42:24. | |
much on the blame and not enough on what positive action is now required | :42:25. | :42:29. | |
when there is so much to be done. I mean, it's quite entertaining but | :42:30. | :42:32. | |
it's not very constructive. The Environment Agency says it's | :42:33. | :42:34. | |
concentrating on protecting people and properties in the extreme | :42:35. | :42:37. | |
weather, rather than getting involved in allegations of blame. | :42:38. | :42:40. | |
But its chair, Lord Smith, did use an article in the national press to | :42:41. | :42:43. | |
say the Government was using his agency as a political football. | :42:44. | :42:50. | |
People are concerned about police presence, police visibility. Are our | :42:51. | :42:56. | |
properties secure? At a meeting for flood`hit residents near Bridgwater | :42:57. | :42:59. | |
this week, the local MP did seem slightly repentant. You've blamed | :43:00. | :43:03. | |
the Environment Agency, Chris Smith in particular. Is blaming anyone the | :43:04. | :43:07. | |
right thing to be doing right now? No, and I think that's fair. There | :43:08. | :43:11. | |
are occasions when you're up against it and even I let off steam. And I | :43:12. | :43:19. | |
just felt it was so unfair to tell people who had been living here for | :43:20. | :43:23. | |
generations that they have to make a choice and it was their fault in the | :43:24. | :43:27. | |
first place. I thought that was unfair. And you look back and you | :43:28. | :43:31. | |
think, should I have said that? And the answer is probably not but the | :43:32. | :43:35. | |
professional side of me is that I am not prepared to have my constituents | :43:36. | :43:38. | |
being given a choice. Their lives matter more to me, and their | :43:39. | :43:41. | |
livelihoods, than Chris Smith. Are you looking for someone to blame so | :43:42. | :43:45. | |
people don't point the finger at you? No, I am happy to stand up in | :43:46. | :43:49. | |
front of everybody. That is why I'm here. You know, I am not a shrinking | :43:50. | :43:53. | |
violet. You know that! You know that very well. No, if people want to | :43:54. | :43:57. | |
come and shout at me, and people have, I am quite happy to take it. | :43:58. | :44:01. | |
And he might have to take that flak for some time. The water is slow to | :44:02. | :44:05. | |
recede and those affected desperate for someone to blame. | :44:06. | :44:08. | |
Joining me in the studio is Doctor Tim Harries. He is an expert on | :44:09. | :44:11. | |
human behaviour from Kingston University and he studied the impact | :44:12. | :44:14. | |
of flooding on mental health. Thank you very much for coming in. What | :44:15. | :44:17. | |
are the flood victims going through? Many mixed and very different | :44:18. | :44:20. | |
emotions. I mean, shock and anger are some of the first ones, of | :44:21. | :44:24. | |
course. We have heard lots of that on the radio and on the television. | :44:25. | :44:29. | |
Disbelief. And what this kind of mix leads to then, inevitably, one of | :44:30. | :44:33. | |
the things it leads to in the short term is a kind of denial. Because | :44:34. | :44:38. | |
the shock is actually too great for us to handle easily so we need to | :44:39. | :44:42. | |
find some way of coping, as the lady on the clip mentioned. One of the | :44:43. | :44:46. | |
coping mechanisms is actually to blame someone else. So we all will | :44:47. | :44:50. | |
tend to think, " Who can I blame? Who is not me? Who is not part of my | :44:51. | :44:55. | |
little community or home?" And politicians and the Environment | :44:56. | :44:58. | |
Agency are going to be in the front line, are they not? They are the | :44:59. | :45:02. | |
natural scapegoats. And to some extent, it is understandable that | :45:03. | :45:05. | |
they get some of the blame. The problem with that of course is that | :45:06. | :45:09. | |
they are also the ones who are looking after us and protecting us. | :45:10. | :45:12. | |
Let's bring in the politicians. Jacob, when you heard your fellow | :45:13. | :45:15. | |
conservative Ian Liddell Grainger calling someone a git and wanting to | :45:16. | :45:18. | |
put their head down the toilet, did it make you feel proud? Ian speaks | :45:19. | :45:23. | |
his mind and that is a thoroughly good thing for politicians to do. I | :45:24. | :45:28. | |
speak my mind in a slightly different way from Ian but he has | :45:29. | :45:31. | |
made his criticisms very forcefully and I think there is an important | :45:32. | :45:35. | |
underlying point, which is that the Environment Agency made policy | :45:36. | :45:37. | |
decisions that made the problem worse. Now, I thought it would be | :45:38. | :45:41. | |
useful to bring the 2008 policy document from the Environment | :45:42. | :45:50. | |
Agency. Right. It says that directed flooding on the Somerset Levels and | :45:51. | :45:53. | |
moors has the potential to enhance already significant nature | :45:54. | :45:56. | |
conservation interests. So in 2 08, the Environment Agency suggesting | :45:57. | :45:58. | |
that actually flooding the Somerset moors was an allowable thing to do. | :45:59. | :46:05. | |
Here we are in 2014 with a serious flooding problem, mainly because | :46:06. | :46:08. | |
because there has been a lot of rain rather than because of the | :46:09. | :46:10. | |
Environment Agency but policy decisions made it worse. Now if this | :46:11. | :46:14. | |
is to be put right in future, we have to examine the mistaken | :46:15. | :46:17. | |
policies that were chosen and put new ones in place. And that is where | :46:18. | :46:23. | |
you need some element of blame because we need to work out what... | :46:24. | :46:27. | |
And would you also blame the local authorities who didn't contribute to | :46:28. | :46:29. | |
dredging? The dredging stopped in 1995 and my godfather, who was a | :46:30. | :46:33. | |
Somerset County Councilor in the 1980s, said that at the time that | :46:34. | :46:36. | |
not dredging would lead to these problems and so once you've got very | :46:37. | :46:40. | |
heavy rainfall, you are in a position where it was going to have | :46:41. | :46:45. | |
a worse effect because of policy. It is interesting the Conservatives | :46:46. | :46:48. | |
didn't come into power and override the Environment Agency. But bringing | :46:49. | :46:56. | |
in Gawain, you blame Brussels, presumably. In part. There are. . A | :46:57. | :47:01. | |
problem has many fathers. It is as the levels are a man`made | :47:02. | :47:03. | |
environment, the problems are largely man`made. Yes, of course we | :47:04. | :47:07. | |
have had the problems with the weather but the ability to deal with | :47:08. | :47:11. | |
it has been hampered by the taking over by the Environment Agency of | :47:12. | :47:13. | |
the responsibility of drainage from the Rivers Authority. It was once | :47:14. | :47:17. | |
the case that the water companies were responsible for everything | :47:18. | :47:25. | |
Then when they were privatised, that authority, that responsibility, was | :47:26. | :47:28. | |
split between about six different agencies, most of which are | :47:29. | :47:35. | |
mentioned in your film. The problem now is the buck does not stop | :47:36. | :47:39. | |
anywhere. The blame is being put on Chris Smith. To a large extent I | :47:40. | :47:43. | |
think reasonably. And I think what Jacob has brought up is key. What is | :47:44. | :47:47. | |
driving the policy that thinks it is a good idea to flood the levels And | :47:48. | :47:51. | |
I would say there you're looking at the habitat directive, you're | :47:52. | :47:54. | |
looking at the water framework directive, and various other | :47:55. | :47:57. | |
aspects. Is it simply an act of God, actually, and there is not much that | :47:58. | :48:02. | |
any of us can do about it? I would like to just come back to the | :48:03. | :48:05. | |
difference between blame and understanding. So it sounds that we | :48:06. | :48:08. | |
are talking about how can we understand why Somerset has flooded | :48:09. | :48:11. | |
so badly. Now, that is right and good as far as I'm concerned. What | :48:12. | :48:15. | |
we often see from residents and on occasion from politicians is very | :48:16. | :48:20. | |
emotional blaming. Now that is a negative part. Of course we have to | :48:21. | :48:24. | |
understand if the Environment Agency can change and of course we need to | :48:25. | :48:28. | |
see why they did what they did. With probably good intentions. But the | :48:29. | :48:31. | |
blame potentially has quite a negative effect, in that we need, | :48:32. | :48:34. | |
for example, a very good relationship between the Environment | :48:35. | :48:36. | |
Agency and householders and farmers and small businesses in order that | :48:37. | :48:40. | |
together they can actually work this through. What we have had in the | :48:41. | :48:44. | |
past is antagonism, which has actually pushed the two parties | :48:45. | :48:47. | |
apart. So should the politicians then be trying to smooth things over | :48:48. | :48:51. | |
and be diplomatic, rather than going in this rather adversarial way that | :48:52. | :48:54. | |
we have seen? It is very tempting I am sure for a politician to be | :48:55. | :48:58. | |
adversarial but they do, if they want the best for Somerset, rather | :48:59. | :49:01. | |
than for their own votes, they do need to be thinking about a less | :49:02. | :49:09. | |
adversarial approach. Can I say one thing? Very quickly. I think there | :49:10. | :49:13. | |
is a problem that so many of these responsibilities have been given to | :49:14. | :49:15. | |
quangos. When politicians had direct responsibility, they had to defend | :49:16. | :49:19. | |
the decision that they had made Now, we can pass it on to nominally | :49:20. | :49:22. | |
independent third parties and I think that makes the blame game a | :49:23. | :49:26. | |
good deal worse and cuts out the direct response policy to the | :49:27. | :49:29. | |
politicians. We have to leave it there. I am sorry. Doctor Tim, I | :49:30. | :49:41. | |
appreciate it. Thank you. So how many are being hurt by the Somerset | :49:42. | :49:44. | |
floods? Most certainly tens of thousands. Not because they have | :49:45. | :49:47. | |
been flooded out but because business is suffering. Visitors | :49:48. | :49:50. | |
think the county is a disaster zone so are staying away. With the | :49:51. | :49:53. | |
exception of journalists and politicians, though their presence | :49:54. | :49:55. | |
may not be welcome. It is half term week, which usually | :49:56. | :49:58. | |
brings a welcome influx to places like this. Tourism is worth ?1 | :49:59. | :50:02. | |
billion to the county. But 2014 is getting off to a grim start. A local | :50:03. | :50:07. | |
guesthouse reports bookings down a quarter. The owner brings together | :50:08. | :50:12. | |
other local businessmen who are also suffering. We have got a similar | :50:13. | :50:16. | |
problem at the Regal theatre. We have got three shows on, three shows | :50:17. | :50:19. | |
booked for half term, not many people actually coming at the | :50:20. | :50:23. | |
moment. Local people are turning up but the visitors just aren't | :50:24. | :50:27. | |
happening at the moment. People think the whole of Somerset is | :50:28. | :50:31. | |
flooded. You know, we have had so many people who have cancelled | :50:32. | :50:34. | |
coming down because of the floods. As they are using a booking system, | :50:35. | :50:38. | |
we cannot stop them. Other people phoning up to enquire. It is | :50:39. | :50:42. | |
ridiculous. The problem is more acute for places closer to floods. | :50:43. | :50:46. | |
This village says despite reassuring people who phone that they are open, | :50:47. | :50:51. | |
footfall is down. Business leaders say Somerset has got a real image | :50:52. | :50:54. | |
problem. Inevitably, when people think about Somerset, they think | :50:55. | :50:57. | |
about gloomy faces and lifeboats and the Prince sitting on a bench coming | :50:58. | :51:05. | |
to Somerset. They think about water. And they don't think about all the | :51:06. | :51:09. | |
other good things that are happening in the county and all the parts of | :51:10. | :51:13. | |
the county that are functioning pretty well. These are the pictures | :51:14. | :51:16. | |
that have mesmerised for the past month and a half, a sea the size of | :51:17. | :51:20. | |
Bristol covering 80 square kilometres. But for all the dramatic | :51:21. | :51:25. | |
views, the reality is that this is actually around 2% of Somerset. And | :51:26. | :51:30. | |
of course, its thinly populated flood plain. The number of homes | :51:31. | :51:34. | |
that have been flooded is around 100. And while it's been eagerly | :51:35. | :51:37. | |
seized upon by the media, the public view has also been shaped by the | :51:38. | :51:42. | |
procession of visiting politicians. On Monday it was Nick Clegg, | :51:43. | :51:46. | |
following hot on the heels of UKIP leader Nigel Farage, just days after | :51:47. | :51:50. | |
the Prime Minister visited. First on the scene had been Environment | :51:51. | :51:52. | |
Secretary Owen Paterson. the Prime Minister visited. First on | :51:53. | :51:54. | |
the scene had been Environment When he came back on Tuesday, the PM met | :51:55. | :51:57. | |
emergency services and military personnel tackling the floods. | :51:58. | :52:00. | |
he came back on Tuesday, the PM met emergency services and I sent in the | :52:01. | :52:03. | |
Army to help here in Somerset and initially councils said that they | :52:04. | :52:06. | |
didn't need that help. Now they are using that help very effectively and | :52:07. | :52:10. | |
the army are properly stood up here in Somerset, helping repair | :52:11. | :52:14. | |
sandbags, helping local communities. So there will be more military boots | :52:15. | :52:18. | |
on the ground but fewer half term visitors. The bill for dealing with | :52:19. | :52:21. | |
the floods will be huge. Somerset 's laws will be much greater. `` loss. | :52:22. | :52:28. | |
Gawain, should we be applying for help from the European Union? Yes. | :52:29. | :52:32. | |
After all, it's our money. So there are benefits to being in the EU | :52:33. | :52:36. | |
Well, I am not going to say thank you will we give them ?1 and get 50p | :52:37. | :52:41. | |
back. I don't see that as being a good deal. But yes, the money is | :52:42. | :52:44. | |
there and we should be getting it, thank you very much. It's our | :52:45. | :52:48. | |
taxpayers who funded it. Jacob, it is very interesting to see all of | :52:49. | :52:51. | |
the politicians coming down. You always talk about the need for a | :52:52. | :52:55. | |
small state, a state that does not get involved. And yet there is an | :52:56. | :52:58. | |
emergency like this and suddenly David Cameron comes and says, well, | :52:59. | :53:02. | |
money is no object. It doesn't make sense, does it? I think the most | :53:03. | :53:05. | |
important visit was the visit of the Prince of Wales, actually, which | :53:06. | :53:09. | |
made people more that the highest in the land would serve them. I did | :53:10. | :53:12. | |
very much that he actually did that but I thought that really reassured | :53:13. | :53:16. | |
people that the Royal family and the Queen were concerned about what was | :53:17. | :53:19. | |
going on. The British people... I didn't ask you that, Jake! No, I | :53:20. | :53:23. | |
know. In this small state that you have always been asking for, | :53:24. | :53:26. | |
something happens to your people and Somerset and you want the Army and | :53:27. | :53:30. | |
you want money to be no object? Going back to what I was saying | :53:31. | :53:33. | |
about the Environment Agency's report in 2008 and the degree to | :53:34. | :53:36. | |
which they made the situation worse. I do believe in free markets. I | :53:37. | :53:40. | |
believe that if people make a voluntary decisions that have | :53:41. | :53:42. | |
consequences, they must be responsible for those consequences. | :53:43. | :53:47. | |
However, the failure to dredge. . The Somerset Levels have made the | :53:48. | :53:50. | |
problem much worse and therefore, through decisions made by | :53:51. | :53:54. | |
governments, people have suffered. Private companies aren't lining up | :53:55. | :53:57. | |
now, I be, to dredge the rivers and to pump the water out? When there is | :53:58. | :54:02. | |
an emergency, you need the state. You agree? Of course I agree with | :54:03. | :54:06. | |
that. There is a role for the state but... But it has to be a small | :54:07. | :54:10. | |
state when its other people on benefits but a large state when its | :54:11. | :54:14. | |
farmers with airline flooded? `` with their land flooded. I think the | :54:15. | :54:17. | |
two are completely separate things. The state is always there for an | :54:18. | :54:20. | |
emergency. That is the whole point of the welfare system. I support | :54:21. | :54:23. | |
welfare to help people in an emergency situation, when they | :54:24. | :54:27. | |
cannot cope on their own. I don t support the state taking decisions | :54:28. | :54:29. | |
for everybody about how they lead their lives. It's a balance. OK | :54:30. | :54:35. | |
thank you. Well, let'sdim the lights. Feed up the romantic music. | :54:36. | :54:39. | |
Because it's Valentines weekend So a good time to test whether love | :54:40. | :54:43. | |
might be in the air between the Conservatives and UKIP. Here is our | :54:44. | :54:48. | |
very own Cilla Black, Robert Markwell. | :54:49. | :54:52. | |
The surge of UKIP support in last May 's local elections prompted the | :54:53. | :54:56. | |
Conservative member for North East Somerset to drop this political | :54:57. | :55:00. | |
bombshell. Why not do a deal with the Eurosceptic party which appears | :55:01. | :55:05. | |
to be sporting their vote? `` splitting. I think there should be a | :55:06. | :55:08. | |
combined election to say that we support each other across the | :55:09. | :55:12. | |
country. I would like to see Nigel Farage replace Nick Clegg as the | :55:13. | :55:15. | |
deputy premise. `` Deputy Prime Minister. I think that would be a | :55:16. | :55:19. | |
better bet for conservatism and the right wing in British politics. UKIP | :55:20. | :55:22. | |
continued to rain on the Conservatives's parade. They pushed | :55:23. | :55:25. | |
them into third place in another by`election this week. Perhaps | :55:26. | :55:28. | |
that's why support for a deal between the two parties is growing | :55:29. | :55:33. | |
among the Tory grassroots. A survey by the Conservative home website | :55:34. | :55:36. | |
revealed almost half of 1000 activists polled would back a deal | :55:37. | :55:42. | |
with the other side. The PM isn t so sure. I don't believe in pacts and | :55:43. | :55:52. | |
deals. So it is now to Jacob? Jacob has many good ideas, this is not one | :55:53. | :55:56. | |
of them. UKIP has said it would be up to local branches to decide if | :55:57. | :56:00. | |
they wished to field candidates against the Tories. Here in Wales in | :56:01. | :56:03. | |
2010, the UKIP branch defied an order from the then leader, Lord | :56:04. | :56:06. | |
Pearson, and chose to stand anyway. The Tories then lost the seat to the | :56:07. | :56:13. | |
leads Lib Dems by a whisker. Now, with Mr Farage is tipped to top the | :56:14. | :56:16. | |
polls in the European elections more and more Tories believe a | :56:17. | :56:19. | |
special relationship could be the key to keeping the man in Number Ten | :56:20. | :56:23. | |
next year. Well, let's see if there is a romantic atmosphere here. | :56:24. | :56:26. | |
Jacob, your idea of a packed with UKIP, I took it personally to the | :56:27. | :56:30. | |
Prime Minister on your behalf and he said no. Indeed but the week before | :56:31. | :56:34. | |
the election, he was going around saying, " what is the biggest joke | :56:35. | :56:38. | |
in UK politics?" To which the answer was Nick Clegg. So parties have to | :56:39. | :56:41. | |
deal with the reality of electoral situation. The reality of electoral | :56:42. | :56:44. | |
situation is the combined vote of the two right`wing parties is a | :56:45. | :56:48. | |
comfortable majority. If we divide, we risk losing. And yet together, we | :56:49. | :56:54. | |
can achieve the referendum that would give the rich, British | :56:55. | :56:57. | |
people... `` gives the British people. So you're still in favour? | :56:58. | :57:01. | |
Very strongly. And what do you feel about that? We feel that there are | :57:02. | :57:04. | |
more people in the Conservative party who are interested in a packed | :57:05. | :57:08. | |
and people in UKIP. We are on the rise. The only place that I am | :57:09. | :57:12. | |
certain that we have had, you mentioned the idea that we have a | :57:13. | :57:16. | |
party are saying now packed at the top but if the local branch is | :57:17. | :57:19. | |
interested and they think they like the cut of the jet of the sitting MP | :57:20. | :57:23. | |
or whichever then strike. Let's take the example of Wells, where there | :57:24. | :57:26. | |
was the most Eurosceptic Tory MP there. UKIP decided to stand against | :57:27. | :57:31. | |
him. The vote was split, he was out and now there is a Lib Dem who is | :57:32. | :57:36. | |
European in. `` pro`European. Where is the logic? We had a very clear | :57:37. | :57:40. | |
rule about standing down and we did stand down against some. Those who | :57:41. | :57:43. | |
had signed the better off out. Sadly, he had not done so and so | :57:44. | :57:47. | |
therefore the rule that was... So you've got a pro`European in there. | :57:48. | :57:50. | |
Yes, we do for now. Well, that's brilliant then, isn't it? You want | :57:51. | :57:54. | |
to be anti`European but you put .. We believe very strongly, in the | :57:55. | :57:57. | |
case of Wells, the issue of his expenses and the manure heap what | :57:58. | :58:00. | |
was probably more important than the UKIP position. Jacob, a lurch to the | :58:01. | :58:06. | |
right now by the Conservative Party would leave the Lib Dems and Labour | :58:07. | :58:10. | |
as frontrunners to win the election? I don't think they would. | :58:11. | :58:16. | |
If you look at the current polling, the Labour Party is consistently | :58:17. | :58:19. | |
ahead of the Conservatives but not clearly in majority territory. And | :58:20. | :58:25. | |
the Lib Dems have been in freefall since the election but the | :58:26. | :58:30. | |
right`wing vote is 45, 40 6%. `` 46%. That is combined a very healthy | :58:31. | :58:35. | |
majority. Well, Gawain, presumably at some stage we will have to know | :58:36. | :58:39. | |
some UKIP policies. Any idea when that might be, given as Mr Fry says | :58:40. | :58:43. | |
the last manifesto was a load of twaddle. `` Nigel Farage. Yes, | :58:44. | :58:48. | |
indeed. Of course we are going to be launching polishes for the European | :58:49. | :58:52. | |
election. We are going to be fighting the European election under | :58:53. | :58:54. | |
European policies. After that, is over, then we are going to be | :58:55. | :58:58. | |
launching our national manifesto. So we are not going into a European | :58:59. | :59:01. | |
election fighting on a Westminster manifesto. All right, we shall wait | :59:02. | :59:05. | |
with bated breath. Thank you. Well, flooding again dominated the | :59:06. | :59:08. | |
political agenda but that was not all that happened. Here is our | :59:09. | :59:10. | |
round`up in just one minute. Weston`super`Mare and Gloucester had | :59:11. | :59:21. | |
been identified as places needing urgent help with problem drinking. | :59:22. | :59:24. | |
Both places have been designated as local alcohol action areas by the | :59:25. | :59:28. | |
Home Office. It means they will receive extra support in tackling | :59:29. | :59:35. | |
drink fuelled crime. A top European politician has warned | :59:36. | :59:38. | |
British parties to stop pandering to the defaults. That Maxine unfolds. | :59:39. | :59:45. | |
He made the comments on a trip to Bristol. He called for a debate over | :59:46. | :59:50. | |
Europe based on facts and not myths. It has been revealed that Avon and | :59:51. | :59:53. | |
Somerset police has breached data protection laws more often than any | :59:54. | :59:57. | |
other force in the land. Over the last five years, there were almost | :59:58. | :00:00. | |
300 breaches of the rules, like releasing names to the media without | :00:01. | :00:05. | |
permission. And next week sees some of the | :00:06. | :00:08. | |
West's biggest councils set their taxes. Councillors in Somerset and | :00:09. | :00:11. | |
the all gave area will also vote on another round of spending cuts. `` | :00:12. | :00:13. | |
the Avon area. And that's just about it from us | :00:14. | :00:23. | |
this week. Thank you for battling through the rain to be with us | :00:24. | :00:30. | |
today. Whatever the weather, you can stay in touch with this show on the | :00:31. | :00:35. | |
BBCi player or two at. `` Twitter. But now, let's return to London and | :00:36. | :00:40. | |
direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew, | :00:41. | :00:48. | |
back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
about the weather. What could be more British? It has been | :00:52. | :00:55. | |
practically the only topic of conversation for the past few | :00:56. | :00:58. | |
weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims, | :00:59. | :01:03. | |
between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change. | :01:04. | :01:09. | |
That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the | :01:10. | :01:14. | |
author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line | :01:15. | :01:23. | |
or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was | :01:24. | :01:29. | |
Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off. | :01:30. | :01:33. | |
UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to | :01:34. | :01:38. | |
their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very | :01:39. | :01:42. | |
fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband | :01:43. | :01:45. | |
to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government | :01:46. | :01:49. | |
failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual | :01:50. | :01:53. | |
argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate | :01:54. | :01:57. | |
change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't | :01:58. | :02:01. | |
think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly | :02:02. | :02:06. | |
because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The | :02:07. | :02:09. | |
polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm | :02:10. | :02:14. | |
a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
sure that the interventions will be particularly well picked up. It puts | :02:19. | :02:23. | |
David Cameron in a difficult position. He was hugging those | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
huskies, it was going to be the greenest Government ever, and now he | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
has an Environment secretary that doesn't really believe in climate | :02:33. | :02:37. | |
change. Well, we don't know where he stands. That is not where he was in | :02:38. | :02:41. | |
2010. It has always been sold to us that he is statesman-like and | :02:42. | :02:46. | |
pragmatic, but that drifts into he doesn't really believe anything | :02:47. | :02:49. | |
This is a worldwide phenomenon now. You've got the Canadian government, | :02:50. | :02:54. | |
they are pretty sceptical these days. The new Australian government | :02:55. | :02:58. | |
is pretty sceptical. The Obama administration has been attacked by | :02:59. | :03:01. | |
the green movement across the United States, he is probably about to | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
approve the keystone pipeline that will take over the Texas refineries. | :03:07. | :03:16. | |
What was a huge consensus across the globe is a guinea to break down | :03:17. | :03:21. | |
Probably started to break down about the time of the financial crisis, | :03:22. | :03:24. | |
the age of austerity, when suddenly people had more to worry about than | :03:25. | :03:29. | |
green issues. Even at home it is a slightly risky tactic for Ed | :03:30. | :03:32. | |
Miliband. The idea there is a scientific consensus on this, there | :03:33. | :03:35. | |
isn't. You look at Professor Collins this morning, climate systems | :03:36. | :03:41. | |
expert, saying, actually, the jet stream is not operating further | :03:42. | :03:44. | |
south because of climate change Or if it is, it is beyond our | :03:45. | :03:48. | |
knowledge. He flies in the face of what Ed Miliband as saying. He's | :03:49. | :03:54. | |
saying the wet weather is caused by global warming, the head of science | :03:55. | :03:59. | |
at Exeter University says the IPCC originally looked at whether climate | :04:00. | :04:01. | |
change could affect what happens to the jet stream and, because it had | :04:02. | :04:06. | |
no evidence it had any effect, it decided not to include it at all in | :04:07. | :04:13. | |
the IPCC report. The problem we have got is that any individual | :04:14. | :04:15. | |
phenomenon is difficult to attribute to climate change. But the Labour | :04:16. | :04:20. | |
Leader just have? And The Met Office have done the same thing. It's a | :04:21. | :04:24. | |
fragile in, but overall we can say we are getting more extreme weather | :04:25. | :04:28. | |
than ever. The most extreme weather, hurricanes and tropical storm is, | :04:29. | :04:31. | |
they have been in decline. Equally, we have had ten of the hottest | :04:32. | :04:37. | |
summers in the last ten years since 1998. Overall, there is a case that | :04:38. | :04:43. | |
can be made that we are getting more. Each individual thing is | :04:44. | :04:49. | |
difficult to say. Until recently, almost everyone agreed with that | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
case. Now the parties are reflecting differences. I wanted to move on, | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
what did you make of two interesting things that happened with the | :04:58. | :05:03. | |
interview with UKIP and the Tories, one Cory saying I am voting to come | :05:04. | :05:09. | |
out, and the UKIP chap saying we are maxed out on Tory defectors, we | :05:10. | :05:13. | |
can't get any more? I think that was a dangerous admission from Patrick | :05:14. | :05:16. | |
O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially saying that their vote has peaked. | :05:17. | :05:21. | |
Looking at the by-elections, I'm not sure that was a particularly wise | :05:22. | :05:26. | |
reflection on that. They got 18 , 23% last year. The case he is making | :05:27. | :05:31. | |
is that there are more votes to be gained by attracting former Labour | :05:32. | :05:34. | |
voters than former Tories. I'm not sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP | :05:35. | :05:39. | |
that tries to make benefit protection and some other kind of | :05:40. | :05:42. | |
social issues at the heart really sits comfortably with their | :05:43. | :05:46. | |
insurgent, anti-state message. I don't think it will do particularly | :05:47. | :05:52. | |
well. This is why they are pushing the message, it is their response to | :05:53. | :05:56. | |
the idea and suggestion of a Tory rallying cry that they vote for | :05:57. | :06:01. | |
Nigel Farage, and it is really a vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a | :06:02. | :06:06. | |
very good journalist, a very good commentator. He answered almost as a | :06:07. | :06:10. | |
commentator rather than head of communications for a political | :06:11. | :06:15. | |
party. The Government are still trying to rid itself of troublesome | :06:16. | :06:21. | |
priests, an attack on welfare reforms from the Catholic Archbishop | :06:22. | :06:25. | |
of Westminster. Let's have a look and see what he said. The basic | :06:26. | :06:31. | |
safety net that was there to guarantee that people would not be | :06:32. | :06:37. | |
left in hunger or in destitution has actually been torn apart. It no | :06:38. | :06:42. | |
longer exists. And it is a real real, dramatic crisis. The second is | :06:43. | :06:50. | |
that, in this context, the administration of social assistance, | :06:51. | :06:54. | |
I am told, has become more and more punitive. If applicants do not get | :06:55. | :06:58. | |
it right, they have to wait and they have to wait for ten days, two | :06:59. | :07:04. | |
weeks, with nothing. Has the basic safety net disappeared? I don't see | :07:05. | :07:09. | |
how it is possible to argue that. It is certainly the case that there | :07:10. | :07:11. | |
have been reductions in various benefits, some benefits have been | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
scrapped and there is a welfare reform programme. But this country | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
is still spending ?94 billion a year on working age benefits. Excluding | :07:20. | :07:28. | |
pensions? The idea that this equates to some sort of wiping out of the | :07:29. | :07:33. | |
safety net is... He has gone on a full frontal assault on the Tory | :07:34. | :07:38. | |
reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make? | :07:39. | :07:43. | |
No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not | :07:44. | :07:50. | |
up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think | :07:51. | :07:53. | |
the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a | :07:54. | :07:57. | |
full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly, | :08:02. | :08:04. | |
instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when | :08:09. | :08:12. | |
members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms, | :08:13. | :08:16. | |
the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made | :08:22. | :08:26. | |
deliberately in the Telegraph from somebody who feels they come from a | :08:27. | :08:29. | |
centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about | :08:30. | :08:33. | |
this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is | :08:34. | :08:37. | |
it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them | :08:38. | :08:42. | |
look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You | :08:43. | :08:46. | |
can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate | :08:52. | :08:55. | |
the poor and extend opportunity One of the worst moments for the Tories | :08:56. | :08:59. | |
was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact | :09:00. | :09:03. | |
that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the | :09:04. | :09:07. | |
largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary. | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't | :09:13. | :09:16. | |
vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think | :09:21. | :09:24. | |
it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than | :09:25. | :09:28. | |
trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections! | :09:29. | :09:32. | |
The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I | :09:33. | :09:39. | |
want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of | :09:40. | :09:46. | |
February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 2th, | :09:47. | :09:53. | |
there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an | :09:54. | :09:57. | |
improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up | :09:58. | :10:02. | |
one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden | :10:03. | :10:06. | |
change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is | :10:07. | :10:10. | |
completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his | :10:11. | :10:15. | |
nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and | :10:16. | :10:18. | |
depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments. | :10:19. | :10:24. | |
Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot | :10:25. | :10:31. | |
shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women | :10:32. | :10:35. | |
to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet. | :10:36. | :10:40. | |
Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less | :10:41. | :10:44. | |
likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives | :10:45. | :10:50. | |
and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential | :10:51. | :10:56. | |
demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the | :10:57. | :11:00. | |
public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the | :11:05. | :11:09. | |
following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour | :11:14. | :11:18. | |
seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told | :11:19. | :11:22. | |
that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It | :11:23. | :11:28. | |
looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of | :11:29. | :11:33. | |
rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie, | :11:39. | :11:42. | |
they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club? | :11:53. | :11:59. | |
Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a | :12:00. | :12:03. | |
kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true. | :12:04. | :12:08. | |
The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As | :12:09. | :12:14. | |
opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in | :12:20. | :12:21. | |
constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change | :12:22. | :12:27. | |
things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they | :12:28. | :12:39. | |
work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense | :12:40. | :12:45. | |
advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will | :12:46. | :12:51. | |
that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see | :12:52. | :12:55. | |
how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going | :12:56. | :13:04. | |
to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour | :13:05. | :13:07. | |
Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think | :13:08. | :13:13. | |
it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I | :13:14. | :13:17. | |
would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader? | :13:18. | :13:25. | |
I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her | :13:26. | :13:29. | |
stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week | :13:30. | :13:37. | |
off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is | :13:38. | :13:42. | |
Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess. | :13:43. | :13:44. |