04/05/2014 Sunday Politics Yorkshire and Lincolnshire


04/05/2014

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Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Walls are being

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re-painted in Belfast as Gerry Adams begins his fourth day in police

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custody in connection with one of the most brutal and shocking murders

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of the Troubles. That's our top story.

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He may have got egg on his face this week but Nigel Farage is a serious

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electoral threat in this month's elections. I'll ask the Conservative

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Party Chairman Grant Shapps how worried he is.

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And we're on the trail of Nick Clegg. You were voted the best

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Stay with us for the Sunday Politics likely to be a good

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Stay with us for the Sunday Politics in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. We

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find out why there are calls for voters

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in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. We find out why there are calls for

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voters to be given more power to sack badly

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debate what it means for London. And with me, as always, the best and

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the brightest political panel in the business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis

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and Janan Ganesh. They'll be throwing metaphorical rotten eggs

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into the twittersphere. First this morning - Gerry Adams,

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President of Sinn Fein, has spent a fourth night in police custody after

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he was arrested in connection with the killing of Jean McConville more

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than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has claimed that the arrest is

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politically motivated coming, as it does, during local and European

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election campaigns. Northern Ireland's deputy first minister,

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Martin McGuinness, has indicated he might review the party's support for

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policing in the province if Gerry Adams is charged. The Jean

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McConville murder was one of the most notorious cases of the

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Troubles. The widowed mother of ten was

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kidnapped from her home in December 1972, never to be seen alive again.

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The IRA denied involvement but in 1999 admitted it had murdered her

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and several others, known as the Disappeared. Before his death, the

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former IRA commander Brendan Hughes pointed the finger at Gerry Adams,

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claiming: In April this year, either Bell was

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charged with aiding and abetting the murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams

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has always insisted he is innocent of any part in the abduction and

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killing all burial of Mrs McConville.

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We were hoping to speak to the Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa

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Villiers, but having agreed to do an interview with us this morning, she

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pulled out. But we are joined from Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And the police just doing their job by

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questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams said publicly some time ago that he

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was available to speak to the police, but that is not what this is

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about at the moment, because what we have here is clearly evidence in our

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mind of political interference in what should be due process. Gerry

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Adams made it clear some time ago he wanted to speak to the police, it

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was available at any time, and yet that request was not taken up until

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three weeks into an election and we believe that was deliberately

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orchestrated by a small number of people. What evidence can you

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present this morning that proves that claim? The direct circumstances

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Gerry Adams finds himself in at the moment, take that in stark contrast

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when they have dealt moment, take that in stark contrast

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the British Army for instance... That is just circumstantial. The

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PSNI know that the soldiers involved in that and a number of other

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high-profile killings of citizens here, and not one of those people

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has been arrested. In fact any of the people who were interviewed were

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interviewed by request. There was a stark contrast, in terms of how they

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have dealt with the British military involving state killings. We haven't

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got too much time. Sinn Fein said it would review its support for the

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PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That sounds like political interference

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in the police process. It's not because we have a clear mandate from

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the people who elect us. Policing has been an important part of the

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peace process here for many years, Sinn Fein plays an important role in

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local policing partnerships. We negotiate to make sure we have

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powers transferred here to elected representatives in the north. It is

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a long way to go before we have policing highly accountable, and

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making sure they deliver a very impartial service. How will he react

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if Gerry Adams is charged? I am still trying to get a clear answer.

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If Gerry Adams is charged, will you withdraw support for the Northern

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Ireland police service? We view this as a serious situation and a serious

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ongoing situation and we will monitor how this pans out. We have a

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very important role to play to support the police service here. We

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have done consistently, worked with them on a daily basis, but we will

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not accept political interference by a small number of people in the

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police who are undermining the police. We will not accept political

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policing. If there was evidence, and I emphasise the word if, because we

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have seen none, but if there were evidence to justify Gerry Adams

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being charged, why should he not be charged? It is my understanding from

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the family of Gerry Adams that there has not been a single shred of

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evidence put forward. I understand that, but if there was evidence, why

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should he not be charged? You put that caveat yourself and then you

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expect me to speculate, there is no way I will do that. The fact of the

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matter is there hasn't been one single shred of evidence put to

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Gerry Adams in the last few days, in fact what has been put to him is a

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range of issues of newspaper cuttings, books, statements made

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from people, including from people who didn't want their statements

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released until they have died. who didn't want their statements

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was charged, again I emphasise the word if, does the police process

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fall apart? The police process is a fragile entity, it requires work and

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we have been saying this publicly and privately with the Irish and

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British and privately with the Irish and

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process has to be nurtured and developed. We are not out of the

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woods yet. From a Republican point of view we have been working flat

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out. I just wanted a quick answer to my question, is a yes or no? What

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question I asking me? Is the peace process in jeopardy? It is fragile

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and I am not going to have words put into my mouth but I don't want to

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use. It has to be worked out and nurtured. Thank you for joining us.

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Nick Watt, you were a Northern Ireland correspondent like myself in

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days gone by. Where is this going to go? It shows how challenging the

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peace process is because on the one hand you have the unspeakable pain

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of the McConville family, but you also have the danger of not having

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mechanisms to deal with the past. South Africa is a good example, you

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have to have some mechanism to deal with the past because if you don't,

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you are going to have, as Sinn Fein have now, someone in a police cell

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but you don't have the arrests of the Bloody Sunday soldiers.

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Paramilitary prisoners were released after two years... We have seen no

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action against somebody accused of the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a

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one-way street. We have the decommissioning of IRA weapons by

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the IRA, therefore destroying crucial evidence. You have these

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inconsistencies because you don't have an mechanism for dealing with

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the past, but doing that is really difficult because of the pain of

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real people. Don't you get a feeling that here in London they are hoping

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he will not be charged? Definitely because it would be nice if

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everything went away, but the civil case of the family is taken out of

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the hands of the police. You can see here a real failure in Westminster

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to see this as anything other than settled. David Cameron we know sees

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himself as a chairman. I was speaking to a friend in Northern

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Ireland who said he has never met Gerry Adams and I think this is very

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revealing. They consider this as a settled issue that will not trouble

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Westminster again. It would be, but the relatives of the disappeared

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don't want it to be settled. This points to the reality that the

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Belfast agreement probably had to be done, but the moral price at which

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it was purchased was far greater than we were willing to admit during

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the euphoria. For a country that prides itself by the rule of law to

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tolerate the early release of prisoners and former pal and

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military -- paramilitaries, I think was a very serious matter. As for

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the PSNI, it only exists because its predecessor failed to command the

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confidence of the nationalist community. It is a very big deal if

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even the PSNI ends up falling into the same trap. We have to is leave

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it there I'm afraid. It was the Conservative's local election

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campaign launch on Friday, and what did David Cameron focus on? Burning

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local issues like the state of our roads, rubbish collection or care of

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the elderly? No. It was Europe. The Prime Minister re-iterated again his

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promise of an in-out referendum on our membership of the EU in 2017.

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And it's being reported this morning that he will share a platform with

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Nigel Farage in a pre-general election debate. Here's what the

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UKIP leader had to say about the issue when he was on the Marr Show

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this morning with Ed Miliband. David Cameron very often makes these vague

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promises, then doesn't deliver afterwards. I don't think he has any

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intention of allowing me into any of these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband

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wants to debate? We have got to have the TV debates as we did join the

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last general election. I think David Cameron is doing everything he can

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to wriggle out of them. It is up to the broadcasters but whether they

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invite Nigel. My main desire is that the debates go ahead. We are joined

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now by Grant Shapps. Will he be included? The debates were not

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without problems, they took place during the campaign period and

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disrupted the flow of the campaign, taking it out of the regions, people

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getting to speak to the leaders so a longer period for that would be

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helpful. I think they are good idea and they should go ahead, but all of

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the negotiation about who is involved is yet to happen. So it is

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not a done deal that Nigel Farage will be included? That needs to be

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negotiated with the TV companies. The Conservatives believe we should

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have debates, but exactly the format and the timing, all of the -- that

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will be debated in the autumn, but first we have European elections,

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the Queen 's speech and a Scottish referendum. The local election

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campaign was launched on Friday. Why did you talk more about Europe than

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local councils? Both are important. The local elections are critically

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important for people, their local services. It is easy to forget, for

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example, that the council tax has been largely frozen since this

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Government came to power, a big contrast to Dublin under the

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previous Labour government. So why did you go on and on about Europe?

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Let me show you the poster used to launch your local election campaign.

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There it is, and in-out referendum on Europe, the day of the local

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elections, where is the word local? Is it in small print? I hear what

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you're saying, I am happy to be here to talk about the local elections.

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But you are right, they are on the same day, and not many people know

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that only by voting conservative can you get an in-out referendum. --

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Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver, we can, it is the same date, so

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people... This was the launch of the local election campaign. Why does

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the Prime Minister have to keep on promising something he has already

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promised? The actual referendum would be in 2017. He promised it

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before, he keeps repeating it because he knows people don't really

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trust him. I think it is a question of the fact that, actually, unless

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you remind people that the pledges there, that the only way to get an

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in-out referendum is to vote for it, this is a critical moment at

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which we need people to vote for that referendum if they want it. It

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is not the case, as I saw this morning, being said by Nigel Farage,

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that a referendum was promised before and not delivered. There was

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no referendum in the last manifesto. There will be in the next one. There

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was a cast-iron guarantee, in the Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that

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up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In the Sun article, he said, we will

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have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty

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had been passed before the general election, it is difficult to have a

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referendum on something in the past. We joined Europe in the 1970s,

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having a referendum on that! Look, that is about the future. Our

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relationship with Europe is absolutely critical. Most people in

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this country feel, I was not old enough to vote in that referendum,

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most of those who voted, they voted for a Common Market, that is not

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what we have got. We want to continue the work we have been doing

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in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do? They voted against it. We want more

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of those powers brought home, and we will put it to a referendum, and

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people will have to vote Conservative to get it. We have been

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looking at new research, almost two thirds of Conservative members are

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considering voting for UKIP, almost two thirds. I have a simple message

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here, which is this. If you vote for UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are

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likely, 30% are possible. That is why it is important we are making

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these arguments. If you vote for UKIP, you are voting to take us

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further away from returning powers to this country, further from a

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referendum. It is support for Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister,

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and he will do exactly what Labour have always done - hand away powers,

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and away the rebate for nothing in return, giving Europe even more so

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over the day-to-day affairs in Britain. Why are so many people

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considering voting UKIP? It is to hold your feet to the fire, they do

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not trust you on a referendum, so they will vote UKIP to force you to

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tap in your line. We have a very tough line. If I had said four years

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ago that this government would manage to cut the overall EU

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budget, would take us out of the bailout fund that Labour got us

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into, passing a law that no more powers can go to Europe without a

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referendum, if I had said that, people would say, I do not believe

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it will happen. Not only have we done these things, we are promising

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and in-out referendum, and the only way to get it is to vote

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Conservative. Nigel Farage has said, we can't change anything in

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Europe, and it is no wonder that the president of the European Commission

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has said, we love having these UKIP MEPs, because they don't turn up and

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vote, apart from when they vote against the cut in the budget. It

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goes beyond UKIP in your party, because this research also showed

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that those Conservative members most likely to vote for UKIP, they said

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they do not feel valued or respected by their own leadership, and they

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regard David Cameron as ideological eat more remote from them than UKIP.

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What I would say is look at that list... Let me take that step

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further. What people need our series solutions to serious problems. When

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people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will say, which one of the 40% of the

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MEPs who got in for UKIP last time are you voting for, the ones above

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left or defected, the ones have gone to jail? 40% have ended up not

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delivering. People have a right to know what to expect when they vote

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in these elections. They can look at our record at home, and this goes to

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the point you have raised about what we have done in Britain to get this

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economy back on track, recover from Labour's recession. We are prepared

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to take those decisions in Europe as well. Presumably, active

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Conservative members, they know that, so why do they not feel valued

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by the leadership? I spend time going up and down the country

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meeting Conservative members, and they are on the doorstep, last

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weekend 150 out in Enfield campaigning for the European and

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local elections... Why are they keen on UKIP? When I meet somebody who

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says that, not necessarily a member... Have you met members of

:21:23.:21:30.

say they will vote UKIP? No, but a vote for UKIP is... Do not do it,

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you will end up with Labour having more control, handing away powers to

:21:40.:21:44.

Europe. 51-year-old meeting members who say they will vote UKIP, you

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must be out of touch. -- if you are not meeting members. Some of your

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members are thinking of voting UKIP. I spend huge amount of time

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travelling around, I just told you about this action day in Enfield,

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where we had an enormous turnout. Those members were on the doorsteps

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pointing out that you can only get reform in Europe by voting

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Conservative. Labour and the Lib Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't,

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Conservatives will. You have not got that message across, because a

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YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who has the best policies? Tories 18%,

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Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP

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4. Why don't you shut up about Europe and talk about the economy?

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Look, on the 27th of May, we have European elections, as well as local

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elections. If I don't talk about the European elections, you would say

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what you said at the beginning about not talking about the local

:22:54.:22:56.

elections! These are serious elections, and the point I am tried

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to make is that the issues at stake are not peripheral, they are not

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unimportant. Our MEPs have been battling to cut red tape from a

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European level on small businesses, the same thing this government has

:23:09.:23:11.

been doing for small businesses domestic league, where for example

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every small business owner watching this show knows they have got ?2000

:23:15.:23:21.

back in employment announced on national insurance contributions. We

:23:22.:23:24.

are doing it at home, we are doing it in Europe, and it is important to

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tie that together. Ireland that Mr Cameron saying, you should stop

:23:30.:23:43.

banging on about Europe... -- I remember. This is before the last

:23:44.:23:53.

general election, as in days for the Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't

:23:54.:23:58.

win the election, and now you are only three or four points ahead, it

:23:59.:24:02.

doesn't look good for you, does it? Even then, the poll did not turn out

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to be what it was on the day. No, that is what happens, that is the

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voting intentions now! You are in a worse position than a year before

:24:14.:24:15.

the last election, which you didn't win. We are almost proving the point

:24:16.:24:23.

that you can take a clip at any moment in time, not sounding like a

:24:24.:24:27.

politician, but the only poll that matters is on the day. In just over

:24:28.:24:33.

a year's time, people will have a completely different picture to look

:24:34.:24:38.

at than these opinion polls. We have an economy from being a basket

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case, the great Labour recession knocking 7% of this economy, hurting

:24:44.:24:48.

every family, to a point where we the fastest-growing economy in the

:24:49.:24:52.

developed world. In a year's time, I hope people will see that we are the

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people who've taken the difficult decisions, got the economy to the

:24:57.:25:00.

right place, more security for you and your family. Do not give the car

:25:01.:25:04.

keys back to the people who crashed it in the first place. If I had a

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pound for every time I have heard that! It is clearly not getting

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through. On the Pfizer attempted of AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this

:25:14.:25:21.

morning for a tougher public interest test such big takeovers. Do

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you agree with that or not? Let me be absolutely clear, if there is any

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kind of joining, we are in favour of British jobs, British aren't deep,

:25:33.:25:40.

expanding our pharmaceutical sector. -- R But what Mr Mallon and wants

:25:41.:25:53.

to do with rent caps, he is anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He

:25:54.:25:57.

wants to take us back to the bad old those. -- bad old days. Should there

:25:58.:26:09.

be a bigger public interest test? We have seen some takeovers that people

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have criticised, but others, like Bentley, Land Rover, which have been

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very successful. Should there be a tougher test?! We will have tests

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that ensured this get-together becomes a great Anglo-American

:26:25.:26:28.

project, or it doesn't happen, but the Miliband approach is simply to

:26:29.:26:32.

be anti-business, anti-jobs and anti-job security. Grant Shapps,

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thank you. A challenging week for the Liberal

:26:37.:26:39.

Democrats with a local election campaign overshadowed by another row

:26:40.:26:43.

with the Conservatives about knife crime. Adam has spent the day with

:26:44.:26:50.

Nick Clegg on the campaign trail. How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on

:26:51.:26:54.

a political mini break to the Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the

:26:55.:26:57.

train. He wants to highlight what his party is doing in local

:26:58.:27:02.

government, and a personal passion of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the

:27:03.:27:07.

Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has been running a campaign to have

:27:08.:27:13.

prunes recognised as a laxative. Is that Lib Dems battling for Britain

:27:14.:27:18.

in Europe? It is not our front page manifesto commitment! It is one of

:27:19.:27:21.

many things that Graham does, he does many other things. In fact, he

:27:22.:27:30.

is a good example of an MEP who took a pioneering role, for instance, in

:27:31.:27:34.

making sure... There is the proven world, but also the crime-fighting

:27:35.:27:41.

role. -- prune. He has done work to make sure that when British

:27:42.:27:44.

criminals flee justice, we can bring them back. And he has promoted

:27:45.:27:50.

prunes! First stop, a gorgeous country pub, but it turns out

:27:51.:27:54.

everyone is a journalist or a very on message activist. Dark days,

:27:55.:28:00.

being a Lib Dem in the last few years? Strangely not. If you find

:28:01.:28:05.

you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do not get that disheartened, because

:28:06.:28:09.

you know that, locally, you are doing so well for the people that

:28:10.:28:12.

you live next door to that, actually, I find I am almost

:28:13.:28:18.

impervious to what happens on a national level. I am mayor of

:28:19.:28:22.

Cirencester. Have you taken any leadership lessons from Nick Clegg,

:28:23.:28:26.

inspiring new in your leadership of Cirencester? I think what he has

:28:27.:28:32.

demonstrated his patience. It has been a tough time, he has taken a

:28:33.:28:36.

lot of flak, and as the mayor of a town, lots of people agree with you

:28:37.:28:41.

and a fair few don't. You are a full on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime

:28:42.:28:46.

Minister, do you outrank him? I don't think so, he is in government,

:28:47.:28:52.

I am not. So our there any normal people in here? We are from

:28:53.:28:57.

Swindon, you cannot get more abnormal. Are you a big fan of his?

:28:58.:29:04.

No! What has he done wrong? I don't believe in his views at all. Where

:29:05.:29:09.

has he got to? Nigel Farage would have had a pint! At this time in the

:29:10.:29:18.

morning a copy was more appropriate. I have no time for a drink of any

:29:19.:29:22.

kind, because now we are off to look at a local traffic blackspot. This

:29:23.:29:26.

is amazing, like a Lib Dem election leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems

:29:27.:29:33.

pointing at a road. High-vis jackets! Next we had to giggle full

:29:34.:29:37.

bath, but there will be no Regency sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is

:29:38.:29:42.

taking us to an abandoned wilderness. We have just had a

:29:43.:29:52.

health and safety briefing, we have been told to look out for

:29:53.:29:56.

dive-bombing seagulls and an angry fox. That is the sort of thing Nick

:29:57.:30:01.

Clegg has to put up with. He wants to talk about the economy but he has

:30:02.:30:06.

to dodge the day's beat new story, letters leaked by a Tory suggesting

:30:07.:30:11.

that Lib Dems are soft on knife crime. Isn't that a new kind of

:30:12.:30:22.

warfare? I just think it is silly. They may think they are clever by

:30:23.:30:26.

catching some headlines but they are not helping people who worry about

:30:27.:30:36.

knife crime, like I do. We work together... Just like the

:30:37.:30:41.

Coalition! This is a co-working space where different businesses

:30:42.:30:46.

share the same office. My time with the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing

:30:47.:30:52.

to a close. We haven't talked about the most important story of the

:30:53.:30:55.

week, that you were voted the best looking party leader and the most

:30:56.:31:03.

likely to be a good cook. Right, this is news to me and I can

:31:04.:31:07.

guarantee you that my scepticism of opinion polls has just been

:31:08.:31:13.

confirmed. Just as well because the more serious polls don't look great

:31:14.:31:18.

for him or his party. Goodbye, and thanks for the offer of a ride

:31:19.:31:25.

home! He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce

:31:26.:31:31.

joins us now. According to Lib Dem briefing documents, you are likely

:31:32.:31:36.

to choose -- lose a big chunk of your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what

:31:37.:31:41.

would that say about a party that boasts of its pro-Europe

:31:42.:31:45.

credentials? It would be disappointing because we have the

:31:46.:31:52.

most hard-working MEPs. The worry that we have is that people think

:31:53.:31:58.

the European Parliament is not important but it takes decisions

:31:59.:32:06.

that affect us. They would be disappointing for Britain as well as

:32:07.:32:09.

the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the problem that the more you bang on

:32:10.:32:14.

about your pro-European credentials, the more you slip in the polls? I do

:32:15.:32:20.

think so, we have two weeks to go and

:32:21.:32:27.

think so, we have two weeks to go hard. You are forced in the polls. I

:32:28.:32:34.

can tell you there are people out there who do believe Britain should

:32:35.:32:37.

stay in the EU and they are worried that other parties will take us out.

:32:38.:32:43.

The Liberal Democrats are clear, we want to stay in, we will work for

:32:44.:32:49.

reform and do it effectively. If you lose the Liberal Democrats,

:32:50.:32:53.

Britain's influence in Europe will be weakened. Your track record in

:32:54.:32:59.

Europe shows you have been spectacularly wrong again and again.

:33:00.:33:04.

In your 2009 manifesto you said the European Central Bank and the euro

:33:05.:33:11.

have been tried and tested over ten years providing a clear picture of

:33:12.:33:15.

the benefits of Eurozone membership and that proved to be nonsense. It

:33:16.:33:20.

was nonsense everywhere. Every developed bank in the world was

:33:21.:33:25.

tried and tested and failed. Europe may not be perfect, but the question

:33:26.:33:32.

people have to decide is if we are going to leave Europe and be

:33:33.:33:37.

isolated on RM, or use our influence to reform it from inside. We have

:33:38.:33:43.

allies, you work with them, that is something the Lib Dems do better

:33:44.:33:50.

than any other parties. Your 2004 manifesto, you claim that being

:33:51.:33:55.

outside the euro would lead to job losses and reduced prosperity. You

:33:56.:34:00.

were just plain wrong, weren't you? Yes, but the reason is that to some

:34:01.:34:06.

extent the euro did not observe any rules and regulations when it was

:34:07.:34:14.

set up. That is why we never recommended Britain should join at

:34:15.:34:18.

the outset because the criteria had not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was

:34:19.:34:26.

writing to the Financial Times... Your track record is important. He

:34:27.:34:31.

wrote that the Tisch monetary policy is not all it is cracked up to be.

:34:32.:34:36.

Britain would gain greater control over its affairs by joining the

:34:37.:34:43.

euro. How wrong can he be? We have always argued that the currency had

:34:44.:34:51.

to abide by strict criteria. It hasn't done so and that is one of

:34:52.:34:55.

the reasons it has failed. We recognise there is no future for

:34:56.:35:02.

Britain joining the euro and we are not advocating it. Lets put your

:35:03.:35:10.

2010 manifesto on the screen. I didn't say it was not our long-term

:35:11.:35:15.

interest. If Europe succeeds as an entity, if the euro becomes one of

:35:16.:35:19.

the world leading currencies, there will come a point when it may be

:35:20.:35:28.

justified. In the circumstances we are in the moment, there is no

:35:29.:35:34.

recommended timescale. Let's get this right. Despite the Eurozone

:35:35.:35:39.

crisis which has cost millions of jobs, countries that were teetering

:35:40.:35:44.

on the brink of bankruptcy, the Eurozone now facing stagnation and

:35:45.:35:48.

some countries on the brink of deflation, you still won't rule out

:35:49.:35:54.

Britain joining? We are ruling it out in the foreseeable future. You

:35:55.:35:59.

can miss the point that we are working as a coalition partner in

:36:00.:36:03.

government that has secured recovery for the UK, and working as Liberal

:36:04.:36:07.

Democrats in the parliament that have cut back the European budget in

:36:08.:36:12.

cooperation with others. What would the world look like if it were right

:36:13.:36:19.

for Britain to join the euro? You have 27 states at the moment, with

:36:20.:36:25.

too many countries still struggling to meet the criteria so until you

:36:26.:36:29.

have a strong and cohesive enough single Eurozone in which all the

:36:30.:36:33.

countries can meet that criteria, Britain is better off out. So a more

:36:34.:36:40.

centralised Eurozone, that is what you would like Britain to join? No,

:36:41.:36:46.

because it can only happen by consent. Any circumstances in which

:36:47.:36:49.

any further powers would be transferred from the UK to the EU,

:36:50.:36:58.

we would support a referendum. You have just said that for the Eurozone

:36:59.:37:01.

to work, it has to be more centralised and you said if that

:37:02.:37:06.

happens, that is what Britain would join. I didn't say that, I said it

:37:07.:37:10.

would require the consent of all member states to agree to the

:37:11.:37:18.

criteria. We certainly do not envisage joining in the foreseeable

:37:19.:37:22.

future. Since you are the proud party of in, why weren't you just

:37:23.:37:31.

give us a referendum on in or out? Because it has to have a context.

:37:32.:37:35.

What David Cameron is doing is dangerous because I think the major

:37:36.:37:40.

players like Britain and France are not keen on the idea of being

:37:41.:37:44.

bullied into reforms on the instigation of just one member state

:37:45.:37:48.

which is threatening possibility to withdraw. They will have to agree to

:37:49.:37:56.

rules... Just have it now. Do you want in or out? To have a referendum

:37:57.:38:01.

against no background is to put it out of context. We are in the middle

:38:02.:38:07.

of a crisis, a year away from the general election. We have made it

:38:08.:38:15.

clear... You said we are in the middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we

:38:16.:38:21.

are not in the middle of it? What's the middle? The reality is that the

:38:22.:38:25.

Western world has gone through a deep crisis. The UK is coming out of

:38:26.:38:30.

it, the Eurozone is coming out of it. Greece have been able to borrow

:38:31.:38:35.

on the markets in recent weeks which is a sign of success. It is in our

:38:36.:38:40.

interest is the Eurozone succeeds and recovers and we should be part

:38:41.:38:43.

of it but not necessarily on the same conditions as everyone else.

:38:44.:38:49.

The Liberal Democrats work with others to deliver Britain's

:38:50.:38:52.

interests and if they are not there, their interests will be undermined.

:38:53.:38:59.

You are watching Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland

:39:00.:39:01.

Hello. You are watching the Sunday now.

:39:02.:39:15.

Hello. You are watching the Sunday Politics for Yorkshire, Lincolnshire

:39:16.:39:21.

and the North Midlands. Coming up, we find out why there are calls for

:39:22.:39:25.

voters to be given more powers to sack MPs who behave badly. Let's say

:39:26.:39:31.

hello to our guests today. Alec Shelbrooke, and John Mann. Hello to

:39:32.:39:41.

you both. We are talking about MPs behaving badly. You said this week

:39:42.:39:46.

that sexual harassment that `` at Westminster is a significant

:39:47.:39:52.

problem. What is your evidence? What I say and what I have seen. It has

:39:53.:39:57.

been there a long time and is not as bad as it was, but has not gone

:39:58.:40:01.

away. The problem is exacerbated because there is no system for

:40:02.:40:06.

dealing with it. People don't know where to go so people get away with

:40:07.:40:10.

stuff that is a bit dodgy and they can carry on. What sort of things

:40:11.:40:17.

are you talking about? I am not commenting about people's general

:40:18.:40:21.

behaviour, who is doing what with whom. This is about misuse of

:40:22.:40:27.

power, people misusing power concerns me. That is a problem that

:40:28.:40:32.

has existed and still does. Is that your experience, Alec Shelbrooke, of

:40:33.:40:41.

life at Westminster, ? It is not my experience but I think that people

:40:42.:40:44.

who work with MPs should be able to report them to an HR department. It

:40:45.:40:49.

is a peculiar setup in Westminster of quite unprofessional ways in,

:40:50.:40:55.

being crammed into tiny offices with a group of people reporting just to

:40:56.:41:00.

the MP. I think there is a need to professionalise it not of the way

:41:01.:41:05.

the place works. Some would say the resignation of

:41:06.:41:08.

the Newark MP Patrick Mercer this week over a cash`for`questions

:41:09.:41:10.

scandal has further dented the battered reputation of parliament.

:41:11.:41:13.

Voters in his constituency will however get the chance to elect a

:41:14.:41:17.

new MP in a by`election. But in most cases voters have no power

:41:18.:41:20.

whatsoever to sack their MP if they've misbehaved and many believe

:41:21.:41:27.

that should change. Here's Sharon Edwards.

:41:28.:41:34.

The recent resignation of Maria Miller over her expenses claims

:41:35.:41:36.

brought back bitter memories for many voters. It is five years since

:41:37.:41:43.

the expenses scandal first rocked Westminster when it was revealed

:41:44.:41:46.

that some MPs had claimed four moats, duck houses and, in the case

:41:47.:41:49.

of former Scunthorpe MP Elliot Morley, thousands of pounds for a

:41:50.:42:00.

mortgage that did not exist. So do the people of Scunthorpe believe the

:42:01.:42:03.

politicians have cleaned up their act? I think they are all out to

:42:04.:42:09.

feather their own nests. I think there should be more transparency in

:42:10.:42:13.

their spending. Anybody that works has to account for everything,

:42:14.:42:16.

expenses, fuel etc, why should they be any different? Crooked. Yeah,

:42:17.:42:23.

corrupt and crooked. We are paying for everything. They get away with

:42:24.:42:29.

it. The government recently shelved plans to introduce a power of recall

:42:30.:42:32.

where voters could be given the power to sack their MP. But a

:42:33.:42:40.

campaign led by conservative Zac Goldsmith aims to force the issue

:42:41.:42:46.

back onto the political agenda. I think it is time that we put power

:42:47.:42:50.

back in the hands of citizens who elect us for five`year terms, which

:42:51.:42:53.

is a long time, which is something I don't actually support. So I think

:42:54.:42:57.

if MPs have done wrong or they have failed their constituents, there

:42:58.:43:00.

needs to be a mechanism to allow members of public to recall their

:43:01.:43:04.

members of Parliament. The latest proposal suggests a system where a

:43:05.:43:08.

petition signed by at least 20% of the electorate in a constituency

:43:09.:43:10.

would trigger a referendum on the future of an MP. If more than half

:43:11.:43:20.

of voters support the recall of the MP, then a by`election would have to

:43:21.:43:26.

be called. I think there are a lot of MPs who worked incredibly hard

:43:27.:43:30.

and do a very, very good job for their constituency. This is not

:43:31.:43:34.

about saying that all MPs are bad. It is saying that there needs to be

:43:35.:43:38.

a safety valve in our political system that where there is an issue,

:43:39.:43:43.

voters can have a say. At the moment, if there is a scandal,

:43:44.:43:45.

whether about expenses, Douglas Hogg's moat, or Patrick Mercer's

:43:46.:43:48.

lobbying, political parties can have a say, they can withdraw the whip.

:43:49.:43:55.

`` Patrick Mercer and lobbying. Parliament can have an enquiry and

:43:56.:43:58.

reach a conclusion about appropriate sanctions. But the voters of the

:43:59.:44:01.

constituency are left out of that process entirely. Opinion polls

:44:02.:44:06.

suggest that the reputation of MPs has improved little since the

:44:07.:44:11.

expenses scandal. Many believe Parliament could do more to put its

:44:12.:44:21.

house in order. John Mann, do voters need to be

:44:22.:44:26.

given the power of recall and sack MPs who behave badly? Of course they

:44:27.:44:32.

should. There is a word for it, democracy. It has been lacking. If

:44:33.:44:37.

Patrick Mercer had been suspended, he has been suspended for six

:44:38.:44:40.

months, if he hadn't resigned, people of new work would not have

:44:41.:44:44.

had an MP for six months. That is nonsensical. The Coalition

:44:45.:44:51.

Government promised us this, they said it would happen before the next

:44:52.:44:54.

election, but they have dropped the plans? Are you running scared? It is

:44:55.:45:01.

a mystery to me why it was dropped. It was in the manifesto and I

:45:02.:45:06.

supported. Exactly what John said. It is unreasonable to expect an MP

:45:07.:45:11.

who get sanctioned by the health authorities, get suspended, could

:45:12.:45:15.

carry on in that seat. The game is up. Go and have a referendum, have

:45:16.:45:21.

the right of recall. There are all sorts of questions which need to be

:45:22.:45:24.

cleared up. Parliament would like the commission to look into MPs. The

:45:25.:45:29.

fact that the standards commission and Parliament was saying perhaps

:45:30.:45:33.

Maria Miller does not need to playback `` payback ?45,000...

:45:34.:45:40.

45,000? It is an enormous sum of money! It was a number of weeks

:45:41.:45:48.

before she did it. And I disagreed. I think it is absolutely right that

:45:49.:45:52.

there should be some sort of right to recall in those situations. John

:45:53.:46:00.

Mann, a `` are you prepared to support that Goldsmith? I will and I

:46:01.:46:07.

think it is needed. Maria Miller should be out there. The people of

:46:08.:46:11.

Basingstoke added big public meeting. They want a say. They want

:46:12.:46:18.

a chance to vote her out. They should have that right. It is five

:46:19.:46:25.

years on from the expensive scandal, before you went to Parliament. How

:46:26.:46:29.

do you improve the image of parliament? People still think you

:46:30.:46:35.

are a bunch of crooks. The relationship is broken. You need to

:46:36.:46:41.

try to let people have a say when something has gone wrong. You are

:46:42.:46:47.

dreaming if there is `` if you think there is something that we can do

:46:48.:46:51.

where people will think that politicians are not just out to help

:46:52.:46:56.

them in pockets. We can give more power to people but don't think they

:46:57.:47:00.

will think differently from now. How would you improve the image, John

:47:01.:47:06.

Mann? As every MP had said, it is answering the questions that people

:47:07.:47:09.

like yourself ask! But even with that people like yourself ask! But

:47:10.:47:12.

even without, it will take a long time to heal this relationship. Do

:47:13.:47:19.

you have a moat? It is difficult to get a moat around a terraced house.

:47:20.:47:23.

Campaigning is under way for the European elections which take place

:47:24.:47:26.

on May 22nd. With Britain's future in Europe the subject of much

:47:27.:47:29.

debate, Len Tingle has been back to a West Yorkshire village which held

:47:30.:47:32.

its own referendum on whether we should remain part of the EU.

:47:33.:47:42.

The mighty European Union. 28 countries, half a billion

:47:43.:47:44.

population, breathtakingly grand institutional buildings and ?120

:47:45.:47:52.

billion annual budget. The parish of Crigglestone. Five

:47:53.:47:54.

small villages, 9000 population, turn`of`the`century parish hall and

:47:55.:48:05.

an annual budget of just ?14,000. `` ?40,000. But back in 2007, a chunk

:48:06.:48:09.

of that budget had to be spent holding a local referendum on the

:48:10.:48:12.

question of whether we really should be part of the European Union. So

:48:13.:48:16.

why is it that it tiny little place like this was holding a referendum

:48:17.:48:19.

on EU mothership at all? Well, it was because anti`European Union

:48:20.:48:21.

campaigners spotted a loophole in the 1972 Local Government Act. It

:48:22.:48:28.

said that if ten people, just ten, signed a petition, then they could

:48:29.:48:31.

force the parish council to hold a referendum on any subject at all.

:48:32.:48:39.

And that subject was sparked by the then Labour Prime Minister Gordon

:48:40.:48:43.

Brown. He joined other prime ministers and presidents and signed

:48:44.:48:46.

a new agreement on how the European Union should be governed and grow.

:48:47.:48:51.

But he refused to hold a national referendum on the issue. And that is

:48:52.:48:57.

where Crigglestone came in. One of five tiny parishes across England

:48:58.:49:00.

where angry opponents of the European Union forced their own

:49:01.:49:03.

referendums to be held to put the issue into the national headlines.

:49:04.:49:09.

The driving force behind the controversial moves to force the

:49:10.:49:12.

parish to hold a referendum was former Olympic rower Alex Story. He

:49:13.:49:18.

was then prospective Conservative Party candidate for the constituency

:49:19.:49:24.

of Wakefield. `` the year respective Conservative Party `` the

:49:25.:49:29.

Eurosceptic. At the time, he denied it was a political stunt and a waste

:49:30.:49:32.

of time. Despite the Conservatives campaigning hard, only around 500

:49:33.:49:36.

bothered to vote, less than 10%. But of those that did, an overwhelming

:49:37.:49:39.

majority backed what was in effect a call for an immediate national

:49:40.:49:43.

referendum on our EU membership. An issue that clearly hasn't gone away.

:49:44.:49:48.

We want to govern our own country, make our own laws, control our own

:49:49.:49:54.

borders... Nigel Farage's UKIP were not part of that referendum seven

:49:55.:49:57.

years ago, but they did use the same loophole in other similar parish

:49:58.:50:05.

referendums across the country. And on a far larger stage, Nigel Farage

:50:06.:50:08.

was beating the same drum at his launch of this year's election

:50:09.:50:15.

campaign in Sheffield. In fact, only the Liberal Democrats are ruling out

:50:16.:50:18.

any sort of referendum on UK membership. We need to vote to get

:50:19.:50:27.

Labour candidates in the town halls and Labour MPs in the European

:50:28.:50:30.

Parliament. Labour launched its campaign in Dewsbury this week and

:50:31.:50:33.

even as its candidates highlighted the importance of its membership,

:50:34.:50:35.

one senior Labour MP, Bassetlaw's John Mann, was urging the party to

:50:36.:50:44.

set up a date for a referendum. And as for the Conservatives, Alex Story

:50:45.:50:47.

is now one of its candidates for the European elections. With the

:50:48.:50:52.

leadership flatly denying it has a problem with the issue of a

:50:53.:50:57.

referendum. We passed a law that gives this country a referendum

:50:58.:51:00.

lock. No more powers going over to Brussels without a referendum for

:51:01.:51:04.

the British people. So, almost seven years on, should that tiny

:51:05.:51:06.

Crigglestone referendum be reassessed? A political stunt, or a

:51:07.:51:18.

trailblazer? We have also been joined by Julio

:51:19.:51:23.

Gash. She is an award`winning entrepreneur from Sheffield. Ten

:51:24.:51:28.

years ago, you stood as a Lib Dem candidate in the European elections.

:51:29.:51:32.

Why do you think that we have become more Eurosceptic in the last decade?

:51:33.:51:37.

I think there are issues which have not been answered by national

:51:38.:51:41.

politicians and by European politicians. We need answers and

:51:42.:51:45.

those answers are not thinking indicated clearly. As such, it is

:51:46.:51:49.

allowing an open field for like Nigel Farage. What sort of questions

:51:50.:51:56.

are you talking about? Questions like, how is Europe run? It is very

:51:57.:52:02.

very, very opaque. I was saying this ten years ago, people are not

:52:03.:52:11.

knowing what is going on. It allows people to fill the vacuum and bring

:52:12.:52:17.

in scare stories. Where there are gaps in people's knowledge, there is

:52:18.:52:26.

fear. You had a referendum, what were the results? 50% to leave the

:52:27.:52:36.

EU, some don't knows. That is similar to a survey I had six or

:52:37.:52:40.

seven years ago. That was not overall in favour. The consistency

:52:41.:52:46.

there `` there is consistency there. The issue that emerges is

:52:47.:52:51.

immigration. We shouldn't hide away from it. The issue on the doorstep

:52:52.:52:57.

is not that power of its power, a minority are interested in that. It

:52:58.:53:00.

is about immigration, people feeling that there is too much. David

:53:01.:53:06.

Cameron has been all over the TV and the newspapers talking about

:53:07.:53:11.

immigration. Is he running scared of UKIP? Not at all. He has said that

:53:12.:53:19.

we will have an in out referendum if there is a Conservative majority

:53:20.:53:23.

after the next election. We brought forward air a `` a bill about having

:53:24.:53:30.

a referendum which was defeated. But all the issues we are talking about

:53:31.:53:36.

boil down to the fact whether people want to be in and out of Europe. We

:53:37.:53:41.

should look at the Scottish referendum, things which now have

:53:42.:53:46.

front`page coverage. It ties into the argument that area is not

:53:47.:53:50.

explored, stories are not explain. When you have a referendum, when

:53:51.:53:53.

there is something coming around the corner, all sides of the argument

:53:54.:53:58.

put forward. That is very important on its own. So do you welcome

:53:59.:54:01.

Cameron Potter promise of a referendum? Not necessarily, and the

:54:02.:54:08.

example of Crigglestone shows why this is the case. You get people

:54:09.:54:12.

with extreme views who will manipulate it for their own agenda

:54:13.:54:19.

`` agenda. People did not turn up and it was a very costly exercise.

:54:20.:54:25.

We work for people at a local level and an international level. I don't

:54:26.:54:29.

think that a referendum what's all that is you. Politicians are

:54:30.:54:33.

accountable for communicating on all issues, national or European. They

:54:34.:54:38.

do not. Immigration is an issue which has not been debated but a

:54:39.:54:41.

referendum is not the place for that. John Mann, you have written to

:54:42.:54:46.

your party leader demanding a referendum. Why do think he is

:54:47.:54:53.

wrong? Advising politely! I am in favour of having that debate is

:54:54.:54:57.

separate from elections. The problem is this. The Tories say they want a

:54:58.:55:05.

referendum, but on what? They want a more flexible labour market, more

:55:06.:55:10.

zero hours contracts and more agency workers. That is exactly what is

:55:11.:55:15.

fuelling the debate. People want less agencies, no zero hour

:55:16.:55:20.

contracts. They don't want this flexible labour market and neither

:55:21.:55:24.

do why. That is their big problem with immigration. People have

:55:25.:55:27.

nothing against Eastern Europeans, they just think that it is driving

:55:28.:55:34.

down jobs and wages. My job, my wages. Agencies are undermining that

:55:35.:55:39.

more. Cameron and UKIP want more of it. What Cameron should do is get

:55:40.:55:44.

that sorted and the public would say, good on you. I will let Alec

:55:45.:55:53.

Shelbrooke answer that. If you look at our plans, we want to renegotiate

:55:54.:55:58.

border controls. We don't deserve free movement of trade, we have free

:55:59.:56:03.

movement of people moving to enjoy benefits. That leads to immigration

:56:04.:56:10.

becoming a problem. It is 5% on average, in my constituency of

:56:11.:56:14.

people I speak to, so it is not a scientific poll, say that they went

:56:15.:56:19.

into a common market and they want a common market. They don't want

:56:20.:56:24.

federalisation. Whatever the discussion is, whatever happens, the

:56:25.:56:28.

British people are not going to be satisfied until they are given a

:56:29.:56:34.

choice of in or out. Julio Gash? I think the issue of immigration and

:56:35.:56:38.

jobs is a bit of a funny one because at the end of the day, what will

:56:39.:56:42.

happen if we are not in Europe, what will happen to the factories which

:56:43.:56:46.

are supposedly employing all these immigrants? Where are they going to

:56:47.:56:50.

find the people to fill those jobs would be productivity level and the

:56:51.:56:54.

wage level? Were there be in this country or will this companies

:56:55.:57:00.

relocate `` will those companies relocate to Poland? You have to see

:57:01.:57:03.

to businesses as to how they would respond. Briefly, I would say that

:57:04.:57:09.

is an argument in favour of staying. None of these arguments will come to

:57:10.:57:12.

the fork until there is a referendum about in or out. How do you get

:57:13.:57:17.

people in places like Sheffield to love Europe? Being at the heart of

:57:18.:57:24.

Europe means jobs. We need to export to Europe, it is our biggest market.

:57:25.:57:29.

We need to make an export things that is what makes Yorkshire great.

:57:30.:57:33.

That is what makes Britain great. I'll be hosting a radio debate on

:57:34.:57:36.

the European elections, with some of the candidates standing in the

:57:37.:57:38.

Yorkshire and Humber region. That will be on Thursday lunchtime from

:57:39.:57:42.

12 noon on BBC Radio Humberside, BBC Radio Leeds, BBC Radio Sheffield and

:57:43.:57:45.

BBC Radio York. Tweet me at iredalepolitics if you want to put

:57:46.:57:54.

question to the candidates. Again that's the Yorkshire and Humber

:57:55.:57:56.

debate from 12 noon on Thursday. Let's get some more of the week's

:57:57.:57:59.

political news now. Louise Martin has our round`up in 60 seconds.

:58:00.:58:04.

Skipton Conservative MP Julian Smith blasted a quarter of Yorkshire's MPs

:58:05.:58:07.

who either voted against HS2 or failed to vote at all. He says that

:58:08.:58:13.

the county is in danger of overlooking a phenomenal

:58:14.:58:15.

opportunity, a ?50 billion scheme which the Shadow Transport Secretary

:58:16.:58:18.

and Wakefield MP Mary Cray said the Labour Party would back, but with

:58:19.:58:25.

caveats. There is no blank cheque. The biggest risk to the project is

:58:26.:58:29.

political, political delay. Further prayers were said for the

:58:30.:58:32.

family of Ann McGuire, the Leeds teacher who was killed on Monday. ``

:58:33.:58:37.

will be said today. Praise was poured on the dedication of the

:58:38.:58:38.

loving teacher and Christi which she helped to create.

:58:39.:58:46.

Firefighters across Yorkshire have been taking strike action this

:58:47.:58:49.

weekend as part of a long`running dispute over pensions. The Fire

:58:50.:58:54.

Brigades' Union members walked out over changes to pensions and their

:58:55.:58:57.

retirement age. The government claims that firefighters have a

:58:58.:59:08.

generous pension scheme. Alec Shelbrooke, you'll Conservative

:59:09.:59:12.

colleague, Julian Smith, says Yorkshire people are not in the zest

:59:13.:59:19.

enough about HS2. I think he said Yorkshire MPs are not enthusiastic

:59:20.:59:22.

enough. Some others abstained on Monday night. It is important

:59:23.:59:30.

project for the city of lead but it cannot be built on the backs of

:59:31.:59:35.

hard`working people's losing equity `` loss of equity in their houses.

:59:36.:59:40.

The government has moved from where it was not far enough. Therefore, it

:59:41.:59:45.

was not enough to vote down, but it was not enough metres aborted. John

:59:46.:59:51.

Mann, you are sceptical and HS2? I'm not bothered about houses in the

:59:52.:59:55.

Cotswolds. I want all the contracts going to British companies to do the

:59:56.:59:59.

manufacturing and building. That is not in there, I want that built`in,

:00:00.:00:03.

that every single job that comes from this will go into British

:00:04.:00:07.

workers including in the North of England, including Bassetlaw. So why

:00:08.:00:12.

did 15 Yorkshire MPs at staying on that vote? Surely you should have

:00:13.:00:17.

put your money where your mouth is? I have. I have said exactly why I

:00:18.:00:26.

will support the Project for Leeds. I will wait until it is good for my

:00:27.:00:31.

constituency, I couldn't care less about the Cotswolds. M Stich runs

:00:32.:00:35.

have seen their houses devastated and until there is a compensation

:00:36.:00:38.

package in place, I cannot bring myself to say yes to this. It was

:00:39.:00:43.

just phase one, but it is important that we get these things right at

:00:44.:00:47.

the start so that when the project comes along, people are not losing

:00:48.:00:52.

out. Do you think people are confused on Labour's position on

:00:53.:00:58.

this? There were discouraging noises from Ed Balls. Now Mary Cray says

:00:59.:01:01.

she's behind the project. We don't know Labour stands. I think Ed

:01:02.:01:08.

Miliband has been clear all along. He is in favour of it and he wants

:01:09.:01:12.

to make sure that British jobs are created from it and the contracts

:01:13.:01:15.

will go to British companies. If that happens, the Labour Party will

:01:16.:01:19.

be totally unified. Do you think your government can when people

:01:20.:01:25.

around? I think what is important is closing down the North`South divide.

:01:26.:01:30.

As the HS2 as important project to do that. The infrastructure for

:01:31.:01:35.

transport in Leeds is nowhere near as good as elsewhere. The government

:01:36.:01:38.

says that billions will be invested bringing the railway line to Leeds.

:01:39.:01:42.

We have to support that that we have to make sure that is done correctly

:01:43.:01:47.

and fairly and in the right way. You are confident, John Mann, that, ``

:01:48.:01:52.

that investment in these codes mainline will not suffer? I am

:01:53.:01:57.

already well on the case to insure that investment on the East Coast

:01:58.:02:03.

railway line, all the lines across to the HS2, will not suffer.

:02:04.:02:06.

That's about it from us. Thanks to our guests today John Mann

:02:07.:02:07.

That's about it from us. Thanks to our guests today John Mann and Alec

:02:08.:02:10.

Shelbrooke. Now let's go back to Andrew Neil

:02:11.:02:11.

Welcome back. Now, the Government is not very good at predicting the

:02:12.:02:17.

future. That's according to a report from a committee of MPs this morning

:02:18.:02:20.

who say that its Horizon Scanning programme that's supposed to

:02:21.:02:22.

identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities

:02:23.:02:25.

isn't much good at reading the tea leaves. But can it really be any

:02:26.:02:32.

worse than our panel? Here they are predicting the future of then

:02:33.:02:34.

culture secretary Maria Miller before Easter.

:02:35.:02:45.

Can she survive? I'm getting out of the prediction game after I said

:02:46.:02:50.

Nick Clegg would win the debates. But I almost think she might. If

:02:51.:02:56.

there is a big event that moves this off the front pages. David Cameron

:02:57.:03:02.

will want to keep Maria Miller until at least his summary shuffle. I

:03:03.:03:09.

think they will get rid of her. I think they will do the decent thing

:03:10.:03:15.

after exhausting all other options. Maria Miller resigned a few days

:03:16.:03:21.

later of course! The best and the brightest, when did that slip in?

:03:22.:03:27.

This week it will be exactly a year until the General Election, so what

:03:28.:03:31.

better time to get our panel to gaze into their crystal balls again.

:03:32.:03:40.

What's the outcome of the election in 2015? I'm going to go with the

:03:41.:03:46.

polls and say Ed Miliband as the Prime Minister. But the polls are

:03:47.:03:52.

only a snapshot of opinion now, you think they will be the same in a

:03:53.:04:00.

year? No, I think they will narrow. I think UKIP's vote share will fall.

:04:01.:04:05.

I think they are currently coasting on a high and that will tailor way

:04:06.:04:10.

so they won't take as many votes off the Tories. Labour with a majority

:04:11.:04:21.

or is the largest party. Another liberal Conservative coalition, and

:04:22.:04:27.

I say that because he is already in touching distance of Labour. I don't

:04:28.:04:31.

think UKIP will get 15, maybe half of that, and most of the votes they

:04:32.:04:37.

lose will either not vote at all go to the Tories and that should be

:04:38.:04:41.

enough to be the biggest party in a hung parliament I don't envisage a

:04:42.:04:46.

Tory majority. I am also going to go with the polls. For Ed Miliband to

:04:47.:04:51.

be hoping to win at this stage, he has got to be way ahead in the

:04:52.:04:58.

polls. Labour needs to be much further ahead if he is going to win

:04:59.:05:03.

so David Cameron, probably the leader of the largest party. Last

:05:04.:05:07.

time after the election David Cameron went to the 1922 committee

:05:08.:05:11.

and announced he was Prime Minister as head of the Coalition. He has

:05:12.:05:15.

agreed this time he will consult them and it will be much more

:05:16.:05:19.

difficult for him to get a coalition. People at home have now

:05:20.:05:25.

concluded there will be a Liberal Democrat landslide! Are we going to

:05:26.:05:31.

have debates? Yes, probably further away from polling day then last

:05:32.:05:37.

time. That is the Liberal Democrat point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all

:05:38.:05:43.

the life out of the campaign, so the last six weeks will be left to

:05:44.:05:48.

traditional campaigning. What did you make of this in the Sunday Times

:05:49.:05:53.

this morning, this two, three, five formula. There should be a Cameron,

:05:54.:06:01.

Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then there should be another one with

:06:02.:06:14.

them and UKIP and the Greens. It might be testing the patience of the

:06:15.:06:20.

nation to tune into all of those. If you're going to say Nigel Farage

:06:21.:06:24.

should be there, the Green party should be too. They know that as

:06:25.:06:29.

soon as you put them on a podium next to them, he looks like he has

:06:30.:06:37.

equal stature and that is a problem. David Cameron does not want the

:06:38.:06:41.

debates to happen on the way they happened last time. It is generally

:06:42.:06:46.

regarded, Lynton Crosby believes they were a disaster for David

:06:47.:06:49.

Cameron because they allowed Nick Clegg to be the fresh person. He

:06:50.:06:56.

knows he cannot say no to them so the moment you see David Cameron

:06:57.:07:00.

suggesting that Caroline Lucas should be in the debate, you know he

:07:01.:07:05.

is not serious. What he will try to do is have more debates, have them

:07:06.:07:09.

outside the main part of the general election so that it doesn't

:07:10.:07:12.

dominate. The problem the David Cameron is that the campaign will be

:07:13.:07:20.

much longer. It is a five-week campaign so it is quite difficult

:07:21.:07:24.

for him to say we will only have one debate in that campaign. I think

:07:25.:07:28.

smother it with love, hopefully it will go to the courts for him and

:07:29.:07:33.

hopefully they will never happen and he will be delighted. The European

:07:34.:07:38.

election and the local elections are coming up. The three mainstream

:07:39.:07:43.

parties are saying it is a flash in the pan, they don't really matter

:07:44.:07:49.

and so on, but if UKIP comes a strong first, if Labour comes a poor

:07:50.:07:53.

second and the Tories come a poor third, it will have consequences for

:07:54.:07:59.

all three, and the Lib Dems come forth or even fish. It will have

:08:00.:08:04.

consequences and not just in the media but on the ground. One of the

:08:05.:08:08.

big stories is what will happen to the Lib Dems, they face losing all

:08:09.:08:14.

of their MEPs. A good result for them is lit -- in the local

:08:15.:08:21.

elections is losing 250 councillors. These are the most interesting

:08:22.:08:25.

elections we have had for some time. Are we heading for a Nick

:08:26.:08:31.

Clegg summer leadership crisis? I think we are heading towards

:08:32.:08:34.

reversing the clock back to where we were before the Eastleigh

:08:35.:08:39.

by-election. That quiet and things down for Nick Clegg. If they lose

:08:40.:08:45.

all their MEPs, and there is a real chance they will, Vince Cable will

:08:46.:08:49.

be out on manoeuvres because age is not on his side. If he can say Nick

:08:50.:08:56.

Clegg is a loser and a failure, he will be back. Will the Tories go

:08:57.:09:02.

into headless chicken mode if they come third? Yes, if UKIP come first

:09:03.:09:18.

there will not be as much panic as if Labour come first. Is Labour

:09:19.:09:24.

comes a poor second, will there be some pressure on Ed Miliband to

:09:25.:09:27.

reopen his attitude to the referendum? I don't think so and my

:09:28.:09:33.

colleague was talking to Labour sources who said he is absolutely

:09:34.:09:37.

not going to. That is something you can say definitely about him, he

:09:38.:09:41.

decides on a course and he sticks to it. There is one potential upside

:09:42.:09:47.

for David Cameron in a really bad Conservative results, it could

:09:48.:09:50.

strengthen his hand in the renegotiations of Britain's EU

:09:51.:09:54.

membership because he doesn't even need to say to Angela Merkel and

:09:55.:10:04.

Francois Hollande it is there. David Cameron hasn't just been fighting

:10:05.:10:07.

for his party into the local elections. He also got his knuckles

:10:08.:10:11.

wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow, at Prime Minister's Question Time,

:10:12.:10:15.

for talking for too long. Take a look at this. There is a better

:10:16.:10:22.

future ahead of us but we must not go backward to the policies that put

:10:23.:10:27.

us in this mess in the first place. I don't know what they are paying

:10:28.:10:36.

him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I haven't finished! In response to

:10:37.:10:50.

that question, the Prime Minister has finished and he can take it from

:10:51.:10:57.

me that he has finished. I can't remember a speaker ever speaking to

:10:58.:11:02.

a Prime Minister like that. Clearly in that case, John Bercow crossed a

:11:03.:11:07.

line. It is Prime Minister 's questions, he is entitled to answer

:11:08.:11:12.

the questions. There is really bad blood between those two, going back

:11:13.:11:17.

a long way. They hate each other and the worrying thing about that was

:11:18.:11:23.

the look of triumphalism on the speaker's face afterwards. He is a

:11:24.:11:29.

remarkable, revolutionary speaker who has made the House of Commons

:11:30.:11:33.

more relevant, he is holding the executive to account, but that look

:11:34.:11:38.

on his face showed he had crossed the line. Does he survive after the

:11:39.:11:43.

next election? He has improved the importance of the Commons, is that

:11:44.:11:47.

enough to keep him in the Speaker 's chair? The most public bit of the

:11:48.:11:53.

Commons is still the Prime Minister 's questions, and we can conclude

:11:54.:11:59.

that John Bercow's interventions take more time than any delays he

:12:00.:12:06.

complains about so I wouldn't be surprised if, in a few years' time,

:12:07.:12:15.

someone else replaces him. He is quite popular with Labour, is he

:12:16.:12:21.

not? Yes, he is married to a Labour activist and is notably sympathetic

:12:22.:12:26.

to Labour but I think this is a difficult situation. David Cameron

:12:27.:12:31.

also overstepped the line. As soon as the speaker says order, the idea

:12:32.:12:37.

is that the House was to order and David Cameron pushed him. They are

:12:38.:12:42.

both trying to score points off each other. We cover Prime Minister 's

:12:43.:12:46.

questions every week on the daily politics, and there is a danger that

:12:47.:12:55.

he sees it as an opportunity to do some grandstanding. You slightly

:12:56.:12:58.

sends his vanity gets the better of him. It is supposed to be Prime

:12:59.:13:02.

Minister 's questions. At the end of that session, the Speaker read out a

:13:03.:13:08.

statement from the Chief clerk, and immensely respected figure, saying

:13:09.:13:13.

he is taking early retirement. It is pretty clear that the reason he has

:13:14.:13:18.

decided to go early is because he is finding it tricky to maintain a

:13:19.:13:20.

cordial relationship with the speaker, and the speaker might want

:13:21.:13:25.

to think about his man management skills. That's all for today. The

:13:26.:13:29.

Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at lunchtime from Tuesday

:13:30.:13:33.

onwards. Remember, it is a bank holiday tomorrow. I'll be back here

:13:34.:13:36.

at 11am next week. Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday

:13:37.:13:37.

Politics.

:13:38.:13:42.

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