04/05/2014 Sunday Politics Yorkshire and Lincolnshire


04/05/2014

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Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Walls are being

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re-painted in Belfast as Gerry Adams begins his fourth day in police

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custody in connection with one of the most brutal and shocking murders

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of the Troubles. That's our top story.

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He may have got egg on his face this week but Nigel Farage is a serious

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electoral threat in this month's elections. I'll ask the Conservative

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Party Chairman Grant Shapps how worried he is.

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And we're on the trail of Nick Clegg. You were voted the best

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Stay with us for the Sunday Politics likely to be a good

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Stay with us for the Sunday Politics in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. We

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find out why there are calls for voters

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in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. We find out why there are calls for

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voters to be given more power to sack badly

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debate what it means for London. And with me, as always, the best and

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the brightest political panel in the business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis

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and Janan Ganesh. They'll be throwing metaphorical rotten eggs

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into the twittersphere. First this morning - Gerry Adams,

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President of Sinn Fein, has spent a fourth night in police custody after

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he was arrested in connection with the killing of Jean McConville more

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than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has claimed that the arrest is

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politically motivated coming, as it does, during local and European

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election campaigns. Northern Ireland's deputy first minister,

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Martin McGuinness, has indicated he might review the party's support for

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policing in the province if Gerry Adams is charged. The Jean

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McConville murder was one of the most notorious cases of the

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Troubles. The widowed mother of ten was

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kidnapped from her home in December 1972, never to be seen alive again.

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The IRA denied involvement but in 1999 admitted it had murdered her

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and several others, known as the Disappeared. Before his death, the

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former IRA commander Brendan Hughes pointed the finger at Gerry Adams,

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claiming: In April this year, either Bell was

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charged with aiding and abetting the murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams

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has always insisted he is innocent of any part in the abduction and

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killing all burial of Mrs McConville.

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We were hoping to speak to the Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa

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Villiers, but having agreed to do an interview with us this morning, she

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pulled out. But we are joined from Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And the police just doing their job by

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questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams said publicly some time ago that he

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was available to speak to the police, but that is not what this is

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about at the moment, because what we have here is clearly evidence in our

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mind of political interference in what should be due process. Gerry

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Adams made it clear some time ago he wanted to speak to the police, it

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was available at any time, and yet that request was not taken up until

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three weeks into an election and we believe that was deliberately

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orchestrated by a small number of people. What evidence can you

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present this morning that proves that claim? The direct circumstances

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Gerry Adams finds himself in at the moment, take that in stark contrast

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when they have dealt with members of the British Army for instance...

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That is just circumstantial. The PSNI know that the soldiers involved

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in that and a number of other high-profile killings of citizens

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here, and not one of those people has been arrested. In fact any of

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the people who were interviewed were interviewed by request. There was a

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stark contrast, in terms of how they have dealt with the British military

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involving state killings. We haven't got too much time. Sinn Fein said it

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would review its support for the PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That

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sounds like political interference in the police process. It's not

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because we have a clear mandate from the people who elect us. Policing

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has been an important part of the peace process here for many years,

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Sinn Fein plays an important role in local policing partnerships. We

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negotiate to make sure we have powers transferred here to elected

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representatives in the north. It is a long way to go before we have

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policing highly accountable, and making sure they deliver a very

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impartial service. How will he react if Gerry Adams is charged? I am

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still trying to get a clear answer. If Gerry Adams is charged, will you

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withdraw support for the Northern Ireland police service? We view this

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as a serious situation and a serious ongoing situation and we will

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monitor how this pans out. We have a very important role to play to

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support the police service here. We have done consistently, worked with

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them on a daily basis, but we will not accept political interference by

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a small number of people in the police who are undermining the

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police. We will not accept political policing. If there was evidence, and

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I emphasise the word if, because we have seen none, but if there were

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evidence to justify Gerry Adams being charged, why should he not be

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charged? It is my understanding from the family of Gerry Adams that there

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has not been a single shred of evidence put forward. I understand

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that, but if there was evidence, why should he not be charged? You put

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that caveat yourself and then you expect me to speculate, there is no

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way I will do that. The fact of the matter is there hasn't been one

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single shred of evidence put to Gerry Adams in the last few days, in

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fact what has been put to him is a range of issues of newspaper

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cuttings, books, statements made from people, including from people

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who didn't want their statements released until they have died.

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who didn't want their statements was charged, again I emphasise the

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word if, does the police process fall apart? The police process is a

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fragile entity, it requires work and we have been saying this publicly

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and privately with the Irish and British

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and privately with the Irish and process has to be nurtured and

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developed. We are not out of the woods yet. From a Republican point

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of view we have been working flat out. I just wanted a quick answer to

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my question, is a yes or no? What question I asking me? Is the peace

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process in jeopardy? It is fragile and I am not going to have words put

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into my mouth but I don't want to use. It has to be worked out and

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nurtured. Thank you for joining us. Nick Watt, you were a Northern

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Ireland correspondent like myself in days gone by. Where is this going to

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go? It shows how challenging the peace process is because on the one

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hand you have the unspeakable pain of the McConville family, but you

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also have the danger of not having mechanisms to deal with the past.

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South Africa is a good example, you have to have some mechanism to deal

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with the past because if you don't, you are going to have, as Sinn Fein

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have now, someone in a police cell but you don't have the arrests of

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the Bloody Sunday soldiers. Paramilitary prisoners were released

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after two years... We have seen no action against somebody accused of

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the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a one-way street. We have the

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decommissioning of IRA weapons by the IRA, therefore destroying

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crucial evidence. You have these inconsistencies because you don't

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have an mechanism for dealing with the past, but doing that is really

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difficult because of the pain of real people. Don't you get a feeling

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that here in London they are hoping he will not be charged? Definitely

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because it would be nice if everything went away, but the civil

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case of the family is taken out of the hands of the police. You can see

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here a real failure in Westminster to see this as anything other than

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settled. David Cameron we know sees himself as a chairman. I was

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speaking to a friend in Northern Ireland who said he has never met

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Gerry Adams and I think this is very revealing. They consider this as a

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settled issue that will not trouble Westminster again. It would be, but

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the relatives of the disappeared don't want it to be settled. This

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points to the reality that the Belfast agreement probably had to be

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done, but the moral price at which it was purchased was far greater

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than we were willing to admit during the euphoria. For a country that

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prides itself by the rule of law to tolerate the early release of

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prisoners and former pal and military -- paramilitaries, I think

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was a very serious matter. As for the PSNI, it only exists because its

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predecessor failed to command the confidence of the nationalist

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community. It is a very big deal if even the PSNI ends up falling into

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the same trap. We have to is leave it there I'm afraid. It was the

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Conservative's local election campaign launch on Friday, and what

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did David Cameron focus on? Burning local issues like the state of our

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roads, rubbish collection or care of the elderly? No. It was Europe. The

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Prime Minister re-iterated again his promise of an in-out referendum on

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our membership of the EU in 2017. And it's being reported this morning

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that he will share a platform with Nigel Farage in a pre-general

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election debate. Here's what the UKIP leader had to say about the

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issue when he was on the Marr Show this morning with Ed Miliband. David

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Cameron very often makes these vague promises, then doesn't deliver

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afterwards. I don't think he has any intention of allowing me into any of

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these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband wants to debate? We have got to have

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the TV debates as we did join the last general election. I think David

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Cameron is doing everything he can to wriggle out of them. It is up to

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the broadcasters but whether they invite Nigel. My main desire is that

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the debates go ahead. We are joined now by Grant Shapps. Will he be

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included? The debates were not without problems, they took place

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during the campaign period and disrupted the flow of the campaign,

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taking it out of the regions, people getting to speak to the leaders so a

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longer period for that would be helpful. I think they are good idea

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and they should go ahead, but all of the negotiation about who is

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involved is yet to happen. So it is not a done deal that Nigel Farage

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will be included? That needs to be negotiated with the TV companies.

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The Conservatives believe we should have debates, but exactly the format

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and the timing, all of the -- that will be debated in the autumn, but

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first we have European elections, the Queen 's speech and a Scottish

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referendum. The local election campaign was launched on Friday. Why

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did you talk more about Europe than local councils? Both are important.

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The local elections are critically important for people, their local

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services. It is easy to forget, for example, that the council tax has

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been largely frozen since this Government came to power, a big

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contrast to Dublin under the previous Labour government. So why

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did you go on and on about Europe? Let me show you the poster used to

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launch your local election campaign. There it is, and in-out referendum

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on Europe, the day of the local elections, where is the word local?

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Is it in small print? I hear what you're saying, I am happy to be here

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to talk about the local elections. But you are right, they are on the

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same day, and not many people know that only by voting conservative can

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you get an in-out referendum. -- Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver,

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we can, it is the same date, so people... This was the launch of the

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local election campaign. Why does the Prime Minister have to keep on

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promising something he has already promised? The actual referendum

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would be in 2017. He promised it before, he keeps repeating it

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because he knows people don't really trust him. I think it is a question

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of the fact that, actually, unless you remind people that the pledges

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there, that the only way to get an in-out referendum is to vote for

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it, this is a critical moment at which we need people to vote for

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that referendum if they want it. It is not the case, as I saw this

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morning, being said by Nigel Farage, that a referendum was promised

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before and not delivered. There was no referendum in the last manifesto.

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There will be in the next one. There was a cast-iron guarantee, in the

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Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In

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the Sun article, he said, we will have a referendum on the Lisbon

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Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty had been passed before the general

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election, it is difficult to have a referendum on something in the past.

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We joined Europe in the 1970s, having a referendum on that! Look,

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that is about the future. Our relationship with Europe is

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absolutely critical. Most people in this country feel, I was not old

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enough to vote in that referendum, most of those who voted, they voted

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for a Common Market, that is not what we have got. We want to

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continue the work we have been doing in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do?

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They voted against it. We want more of those powers brought home, and we

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will put it to a referendum, and people will have to vote

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Conservative to get it. We have been looking at new research, almost two

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thirds of Conservative members are considering voting for UKIP, almost

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two thirds. I have a simple message here, which is this. If you vote for

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UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are likely, 30% are possible. That is

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why it is important we are making these arguments. If you vote for

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UKIP, you are voting to take us further away from returning powers

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to this country, further from a referendum. It is support for Ed

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Miliband becoming Prime Minister, and he will do exactly what Labour

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have always done - hand away powers, and away the rebate for nothing in

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return, giving Europe even more so over the day-to-day affairs in

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Britain. Why are so many people considering voting UKIP? It is to

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hold your feet to the fire, they do not trust you on a referendum, so

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they will vote UKIP to force you to tap in your line. We have a very

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tough line. If I had said four years ago that this government would

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manage to cut the overall EU budget, would take us out of the

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bailout fund that Labour got us into, passing a law that no more

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powers can go to Europe without a referendum, if I had said that,

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people would say, I do not believe it will happen. Not only have we

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done these things, we are promising and in-out referendum, and the only

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way to get it is to vote Conservative. Nigel Farage has

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said, we can't change anything in Europe, and it is no wonder that the

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president of the European Commission has said, we love having these UKIP

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MEPs, because they don't turn up and vote, apart from when they vote

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against the cut in the budget. It goes beyond UKIP in your party,

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because this research also showed that those Conservative members most

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likely to vote for UKIP, they said they do not feel valued or respected

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by their own leadership, and they regard David Cameron as ideological

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eat more remote from them than UKIP. What I would say is look at that

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list... Let me take that step further. What people need our series

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solutions to serious problems. When people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will

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say, which one of the 40% of the MEPs who got in for UKIP last time

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are you voting for, the ones above left or defected, the ones have gone

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to jail? 40% have ended up not delivering. People have a right to

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know what to expect when they vote in these elections. They can look at

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our record at home, and this goes to the point you have raised about what

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we have done in Britain to get this economy back on track, recover from

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Labour's recession. We are prepared to take those decisions in Europe as

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well. Presumably, active Conservative members, they know

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that, so why do they not feel valued by the leadership? I spend time

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going up and down the country meeting Conservative members, and

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they are on the doorstep, last weekend 150 out in Enfield

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campaigning for the European and local elections... Why are they keen

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on UKIP? When I meet somebody who says that, not necessarily a

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member... Have you met members of say they will vote UKIP? No, but a

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vote for UKIP is... Do not do it, you will end up with Labour having

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more control, handing away powers to Europe. 51-year-old meeting members

:21:43.:21:46.

who say they will vote UKIP, you must be out of touch. -- if you are

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not meeting members. Some of your members are thinking of voting UKIP.

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I spend huge amount of time travelling around, I just told you

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about this action day in Enfield, where we had an enormous turnout.

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Those members were on the doorsteps pointing out that you can only get

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reform in Europe by voting Conservative. Labour and the Lib

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Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't, Conservatives will. You have not got

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that message across, because a YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who

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has the best policies? Tories 18%, Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the

:22:30.:22:36.

economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP 4. Why don't you shut up about

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Europe and talk about the economy? Look, on the 27th of May, we have

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European elections, as well as local elections. If I don't talk about the

:22:48.:22:50.

European elections, you would say what you said at the beginning about

:22:51.:22:54.

not talking about the local elections! These are serious

:22:55.:22:57.

elections, and the point I am tried to make is that the issues at stake

:22:58.:23:02.

are not peripheral, they are not unimportant. Our MEPs have been

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battling to cut red tape from a European level on small businesses,

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the same thing this government has been doing for small businesses

:23:10.:23:12.

domestic league, where for example every small business owner watching

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this show knows they have got ?2000 back in employment announced on

:23:20.:23:21.

national insurance contributions. We are doing it at home, we are doing

:23:22.:23:25.

it in Europe, and it is important to tie that together. Ireland that Mr

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Cameron saying, you should stop banging on about Europe... -- I

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remember. This is before the last general election, as in days for the

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Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't win the election, and now you are

:23:56.:23:59.

only three or four points ahead, it doesn't look good for you, does it?

:24:00.:24:05.

Even then, the poll did not turn out to be what it was on the day. No,

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that is what happens, that is the voting intentions now! You are in a

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worse position than a year before the last election, which you didn't

:24:15.:24:21.

win. We are almost proving the point that you can take a clip at any

:24:22.:24:25.

moment in time, not sounding like a politician, but the only poll that

:24:26.:24:29.

matters is on the day. In just over a year's time, people will have a

:24:30.:24:34.

completely different picture to look at than these opinion polls. We have

:24:35.:24:39.

an economy from being a basket case, the great Labour recession

:24:40.:24:45.

knocking 7% of this economy, hurting every family, to a point where we

:24:46.:24:48.

the fastest-growing economy in the developed world. In a year's time, I

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hope people will see that we are the people who've taken the difficult

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decisions, got the economy to the right place, more security for you

:24:58.:25:01.

and your family. Do not give the car keys back to the people who crashed

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it in the first place. If I had a pound for every time I have heard

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that! It is clearly not getting through. On the Pfizer attempted of

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AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this morning for a tougher public

:25:18.:25:23.

interest test such big takeovers. Do you agree with that or not? Let me

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be absolutely clear, if there is any kind of joining, we are in favour of

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British jobs, British aren't deep, expanding our pharmaceutical sector.

:25:35.:25:43.

-- R But what Mr Mallon and wants to do with rent caps, he is

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anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He wants to take us back to the bad old

:25:56.:26:03.

those. -- bad old days. Should there be a bigger public interest test? We

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have seen some takeovers that people have criticised, but others, like

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Bentley, Land Rover, which have been very successful. Should there be a

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tougher test?! We will have tests that ensured this get-together

:26:22.:26:24.

becomes a great Anglo-American project, or it doesn't happen, but

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the Miliband approach is simply to be anti-business, anti-jobs and

:26:30.:26:34.

anti-job security. Grant Shapps, thank you.

:26:35.:26:37.

A challenging week for the Liberal Democrats with a local election

:26:38.:26:42.

campaign overshadowed by another row with the Conservatives about knife

:26:43.:26:46.

crime. Adam has spent the day with Nick Clegg on the campaign trail.

:26:47.:26:52.

How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on a political mini break to the

:26:53.:26:56.

Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the train. He wants to highlight what

:26:57.:27:00.

his party is doing in local government, and a personal passion

:27:01.:27:05.

of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has

:27:06.:27:09.

been running a campaign to have prunes recognised as a laxative. Is

:27:10.:27:15.

that Lib Dems battling for Britain in Europe? It is not our front page

:27:16.:27:19.

manifesto commitment! It is one of many things that Graham does, he

:27:20.:27:25.

does many other things. In fact, he is a good example of an MEP who took

:27:26.:27:32.

a pioneering role, for instance, in making sure... There is the proven

:27:33.:27:35.

world, but also the crime-fighting role. -- prune. He has done work to

:27:36.:27:42.

make sure that when British criminals flee justice, we can bring

:27:43.:27:47.

them back. And he has promoted prunes! First stop, a gorgeous

:27:48.:27:52.

country pub, but it turns out everyone is a journalist or a very

:27:53.:27:57.

on message activist. Dark days, being a Lib Dem in the last few

:27:58.:28:02.

years? Strangely not. If you find you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do

:28:03.:28:07.

not get that disheartened, because you know that, locally, you are

:28:08.:28:10.

doing so well for the people that you live next door to that,

:28:11.:28:15.

actually, I find I am almost impervious to what happens on a

:28:16.:28:20.

national level. I am mayor of Cirencester. Have you taken any

:28:21.:28:25.

leadership lessons from Nick Clegg, inspiring new in your leadership of

:28:26.:28:30.

Cirencester? I think what he has demonstrated his patience. It has

:28:31.:28:33.

been a tough time, he has taken a lot of flak, and as the mayor of a

:28:34.:28:37.

town, lots of people agree with you and a fair few don't. You are a full

:28:38.:28:43.

on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime Minister, do you outrank him? I

:28:44.:28:48.

don't think so, he is in government, I am not. So our there any normal

:28:49.:28:54.

people in here? We are from Swindon, you cannot get more

:28:55.:28:59.

abnormal. Are you a big fan of his? No! What has he done wrong? I don't

:29:00.:29:07.

believe in his views at all. Where has he got to? Nigel Farage would

:29:08.:29:13.

have had a pint! At this time in the morning a copy was more appropriate.

:29:14.:29:20.

I have no time for a drink of any kind, because now we are off to look

:29:21.:29:25.

at a local traffic blackspot. This is amazing, like a Lib Dem election

:29:26.:29:28.

leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems pointing at a road. High-vis

:29:29.:29:35.

jackets! Next we had to giggle full bath, but there will be no Regency

:29:36.:29:41.

sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is taking us to an abandoned

:29:42.:29:51.

wilderness. We have just had a health and safety briefing, we have

:29:52.:29:54.

been told to look out for dive-bombing seagulls and an angry

:29:55.:29:58.

fox. That is the sort of thing Nick Clegg has to put up with. He wants

:29:59.:30:02.

to talk about the economy but he has to dodge the day's beat new story,

:30:03.:30:09.

letters leaked by a Tory suggesting that Lib Dems are soft on knife

:30:10.:30:13.

crime. Isn't that a new kind of warfare? I just think it is silly.

:30:14.:30:23.

They may think they are clever by catching some headlines but they are

:30:24.:30:27.

not helping people who worry about knife crime, like I do. We work

:30:28.:30:38.

together... Just like the Coalition! This is a co-working

:30:39.:30:43.

space where different businesses share the same office. My time with

:30:44.:30:47.

the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing to a close. We haven't talked about

:30:48.:30:53.

the most important story of the week, that you were voted the best

:30:54.:30:56.

looking party leader and the most likely to be a good cook. Right,

:30:57.:31:05.

this is news to me and I can guarantee you that my scepticism of

:31:06.:31:10.

opinion polls has just been confirmed. Just as well because the

:31:11.:31:15.

more serious polls don't look great for him or his party. Goodbye, and

:31:16.:31:20.

thanks for the offer of a ride home!

:31:21.:31:28.

He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce joins us now. According to Lib Dem

:31:29.:31:32.

briefing documents, you are likely to choose -- lose a big chunk of

:31:33.:31:38.

your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what would that say about a party that

:31:39.:31:43.

boasts of its pro-Europe credentials? It would be

:31:44.:31:47.

disappointing because we have the most hard-working MEPs. The worry

:31:48.:31:56.

that we have is that people think the European Parliament is not

:31:57.:31:59.

important but it takes decisions that affect us. They would be

:32:00.:32:07.

disappointing for Britain as well as the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the

:32:08.:32:12.

problem that the more you bang on about your pro-European credentials,

:32:13.:32:18.

the more you slip in the polls? I do think so, we have two weeks to go

:32:19.:32:21.

and we are campaigning extremely hard. You are forced in the polls. I

:32:22.:32:33.

can tell you there are people out there who do believe Britain should

:32:34.:32:37.

stay in the EU and they are worried that other parties will take us out.

:32:38.:32:43.

The Liberal Democrats are clear, we want to stay in, we will work for

:32:44.:32:49.

reform and do it effectively. If you lose the Liberal Democrats,

:32:50.:32:52.

Britain's influence in Europe will be weakened. Your track record in

:32:53.:32:59.

Europe shows you have been spectacularly wrong again and again.

:33:00.:33:04.

In your 2009 manifesto you said the European Central Bank and the euro

:33:05.:33:10.

have been tried and tested over ten years providing a clear picture of

:33:11.:33:14.

the benefits of Eurozone membership and that proved to be nonsense. It

:33:15.:33:20.

was nonsense everywhere. Every developed bank in the world was

:33:21.:33:25.

tried and tested and failed. Europe may not be perfect, but the question

:33:26.:33:31.

people have to decide is if we are going to leave Europe and be

:33:32.:33:37.

isolated on RM, or use our influence to reform it from inside. We have

:33:38.:33:43.

allies, you work with them, that is something the Lib Dems do better

:33:44.:33:50.

than any other parties. Your 2004 manifesto, you claim that being

:33:51.:33:55.

outside the euro would lead to job losses and reduced prosperity. You

:33:56.:34:00.

were just plain wrong, weren't you? Yes, but the reason is that to some

:34:01.:34:06.

extent the euro did not observe any rules and regulations when it was

:34:07.:34:13.

set up. That is why we never recommended Britain should join at

:34:14.:34:18.

the outset because the criteria had not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was

:34:19.:34:26.

writing to the Financial Times... Your track record is important. He

:34:27.:34:31.

wrote that the Tisch monetary policy is not all it is cracked up to be.

:34:32.:34:35.

Britain would gain greater control over its affairs by joining the

:34:36.:34:43.

euro. How wrong can he be? We have always argued that the currency had

:34:44.:34:50.

to abide by strict criteria. It hasn't done so and that is one of

:34:51.:34:55.

the reasons it has failed. We recognise there is no future for

:34:56.:35:02.

Britain joining the euro and we are not advocating it. Lets put your

:35:03.:35:09.

2010 manifesto on the screen. I didn't say it was not our long-term

:35:10.:35:15.

interest. If Europe succeeds as an entity, if the euro becomes one of

:35:16.:35:19.

the world leading currencies, there will come a point when it may be

:35:20.:35:28.

justified. In the circumstances we are in the moment, there is no

:35:29.:35:33.

recommended timescale. Let's get this right. Despite the Eurozone

:35:34.:35:38.

crisis which has cost millions of jobs, countries that were teetering

:35:39.:35:44.

on the brink of bankruptcy, the Eurozone now facing stagnation and

:35:45.:35:48.

some countries on the brink of deflation, you still won't rule out

:35:49.:35:54.

Britain joining? We are ruling it out in the foreseeable future. You

:35:55.:35:58.

can miss the point that we are working as a coalition partner in

:35:59.:36:02.

government that has secured recovery for the UK, and working as Liberal

:36:03.:36:07.

Democrats in the parliament that have cut back the European budget in

:36:08.:36:12.

cooperation with others. What would the world look like if it were right

:36:13.:36:19.

for Britain to join the euro? You have 27 states at the moment, with

:36:20.:36:25.

too many countries still struggling to meet the criteria so until you

:36:26.:36:29.

have a strong and cohesive enough single Eurozone in which all the

:36:30.:36:33.

countries can meet that criteria, Britain is better off out. So a more

:36:34.:36:40.

centralised Eurozone, that is what you would like Britain to join? No,

:36:41.:36:45.

because it can only happen by consent. Any circumstances in which

:36:46.:36:48.

any further powers would be transferred from the UK to the EU,

:36:49.:36:57.

we would support a referendum. You have just said that for the Eurozone

:36:58.:37:01.

to work, it has to be more centralised and you said if that

:37:02.:37:05.

happens, that is what Britain would join. I didn't say that, I said it

:37:06.:37:10.

would require the consent of all member states to agree to the

:37:11.:37:18.

criteria. We certainly do not envisage joining in the foreseeable

:37:19.:37:22.

future. Since you are the proud party of in, why weren't you just

:37:23.:37:30.

give us a referendum on in or out? Because it has to have a context.

:37:31.:37:35.

What David Cameron is doing is dangerous because I think the major

:37:36.:37:40.

players like Britain and France are not keen on the idea of being

:37:41.:37:44.

bullied into reforms on the instigation of just one member state

:37:45.:37:48.

which is threatening possibility to withdraw. They will have to agree to

:37:49.:37:56.

rules... Just have it now. Do you want in or out? To have a referendum

:37:57.:38:01.

against no background is to put it out of context. We are in the middle

:38:02.:38:06.

of a crisis, a year away from the general election. We have made it

:38:07.:38:15.

clear... You said we are in the middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we

:38:16.:38:20.

are not in the middle of it? What's the middle? The reality is that the

:38:21.:38:25.

Western world has gone through a deep crisis. The UK is coming out of

:38:26.:38:30.

it, the Eurozone is coming out of it. Greece have been able to borrow

:38:31.:38:35.

on the markets in recent weeks which is a sign of success. It is in our

:38:36.:38:39.

interest is the Eurozone succeeds and recovers and we should be part

:38:40.:38:43.

of it but not necessarily on the same conditions as everyone else.

:38:44.:38:48.

The Liberal Democrats work with others to deliver Britain's

:38:49.:38:51.

interests and if they are not there, their interests will be undermined.

:38:52.:38:58.

You are watching Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland

:38:59.:39:00.

Hello. You are watching the Sunday now.

:39:01.:39:15.

Hello. You are watching the Sunday Politics for Yorkshire, Lincolnshire

:39:16.:39:20.

and the North Midlands. Coming up, we find out why there are calls for

:39:21.:39:25.

voters to be given more powers to sack MPs who behave badly. Let's say

:39:26.:39:31.

hello to our guests today. Alec Shelbrooke, and John Mann. Hello to

:39:32.:39:40.

you both. We are talking about MPs behaving badly. You said this week

:39:41.:39:46.

that sexual harassment that `` at Westminster is a significant

:39:47.:39:51.

problem. What is your evidence? What I say and what I have seen. It has

:39:52.:39:57.

been there a long time and is not as bad as it was, but has not gone

:39:58.:40:01.

away. The problem is exacerbated because there is no system for

:40:02.:40:06.

dealing with it. People don't know where to go so people get away with

:40:07.:40:09.

stuff that is a bit dodgy and they can carry on. What sort of things

:40:10.:40:17.

are you talking about? I am not commenting about people's general

:40:18.:40:21.

behaviour, who is doing what with whom. This is about misuse of

:40:22.:40:26.

power, people misusing power concerns me. That is a problem that

:40:27.:40:32.

has existed and still does. Is that your experience, Alec Shelbrooke, of

:40:33.:40:41.

life at Westminster, ? It is not my experience but I think that people

:40:42.:40:44.

who work with MPs should be able to report them to an HR department. It

:40:45.:40:49.

is a peculiar setup in Westminster of quite unprofessional ways in,

:40:50.:40:54.

being crammed into tiny offices with a group of people reporting just to

:40:55.:41:00.

the MP. I think there is a need to professionalise it not of the way

:41:01.:41:05.

the place works. Some would say the resignation of

:41:06.:41:08.

the Newark MP Patrick Mercer this week over a cash`for`questions

:41:09.:41:10.

scandal has further dented the battered reputation of parliament.

:41:11.:41:12.

Voters in his constituency will however get the chance to elect a

:41:13.:41:17.

new MP in a by`election. But in most cases voters have no power

:41:18.:41:20.

whatsoever to sack their MP if they've misbehaved and many believe

:41:21.:41:27.

that should change. Here's Sharon Edwards.

:41:28.:41:33.

The recent resignation of Maria Miller over her expenses claims

:41:34.:41:36.

brought back bitter memories for many voters. It is five years since

:41:37.:41:43.

the expenses scandal first rocked Westminster when it was revealed

:41:44.:41:46.

that some MPs had claimed four moats, duck houses and, in the case

:41:47.:41:49.

of former Scunthorpe MP Elliot Morley, thousands of pounds for a

:41:50.:42:00.

mortgage that did not exist. So do the people of Scunthorpe believe the

:42:01.:42:03.

politicians have cleaned up their act? I think they are all out to

:42:04.:42:08.

feather their own nests. I think there should be more transparency in

:42:09.:42:13.

their spending. Anybody that works has to account for everything,

:42:14.:42:16.

expenses, fuel etc, why should they be any different? Crooked. Yeah,

:42:17.:42:22.

corrupt and crooked. We are paying for everything. They get away with

:42:23.:42:28.

it. The government recently shelved plans to introduce a power of recall

:42:29.:42:32.

where voters could be given the power to sack their MP. But a

:42:33.:42:39.

campaign led by conservative Zac Goldsmith aims to force the issue

:42:40.:42:46.

back onto the political agenda. I think it is time that we put power

:42:47.:42:50.

back in the hands of citizens who elect us for five`year terms, which

:42:51.:42:53.

is a long time, which is something I don't actually support. So I think

:42:54.:42:57.

if MPs have done wrong or they have failed their constituents, there

:42:58.:43:00.

needs to be a mechanism to allow members of public to recall their

:43:01.:43:04.

members of Parliament. The latest proposal suggests a system where a

:43:05.:43:07.

petition signed by at least 20% of the electorate in a constituency

:43:08.:43:10.

would trigger a referendum on the future of an MP. If more than half

:43:11.:43:19.

of voters support the recall of the MP, then a by`election would have to

:43:20.:43:26.

be called. I think there are a lot of MPs who worked incredibly hard

:43:27.:43:29.

and do a very, very good job for their constituency. This is not

:43:30.:43:34.

about saying that all MPs are bad. It is saying that there needs to be

:43:35.:43:37.

a safety valve in our political system that where there is an issue,

:43:38.:43:42.

voters can have a say. At the moment, if there is a scandal,

:43:43.:43:45.

whether about expenses, Douglas Hogg's moat, or Patrick Mercer's

:43:46.:43:47.

lobbying, political parties can have a say, they can withdraw the whip.

:43:48.:43:54.

`` Patrick Mercer and lobbying. Parliament can have an enquiry and

:43:55.:43:57.

reach a conclusion about appropriate sanctions. But the voters of the

:43:58.:44:00.

constituency are left out of that process entirely. Opinion polls

:44:01.:44:06.

suggest that the reputation of MPs has improved little since the

:44:07.:44:11.

expenses scandal. Many believe Parliament could do more to put its

:44:12.:44:21.

house in order. John Mann, do voters need to be

:44:22.:44:26.

given the power of recall and sack MPs who behave badly? Of course they

:44:27.:44:31.

should. There is a word for it, democracy. It has been lacking. If

:44:32.:44:36.

Patrick Mercer had been suspended, he has been suspended for six

:44:37.:44:40.

months, if he hadn't resigned, people of new work would not have

:44:41.:44:44.

had an MP for six months. That is nonsensical. The Coalition

:44:45.:44:51.

Government promised us this, they said it would happen before the next

:44:52.:44:54.

election, but they have dropped the plans? Are you running scared? It is

:44:55.:45:01.

a mystery to me why it was dropped. It was in the manifesto and I

:45:02.:45:06.

supported. Exactly what John said. It is unreasonable to expect an MP

:45:07.:45:11.

who get sanctioned by the health authorities, get suspended, could

:45:12.:45:15.

carry on in that seat. The game is up. Go and have a referendum, have

:45:16.:45:20.

the right of recall. There are all sorts of questions which need to be

:45:21.:45:24.

cleared up. Parliament would like the commission to look into MPs. The

:45:25.:45:28.

fact that the standards commission and Parliament was saying perhaps

:45:29.:45:33.

Maria Miller does not need to playback `` payback ?45,000...

:45:34.:45:40.

45,000? It is an enormous sum of money! It was a number of weeks

:45:41.:45:47.

before she did it. And I disagreed. I think it is absolutely right that

:45:48.:45:52.

there should be some sort of right to recall in those situations. John

:45:53.:46:00.

Mann, a `` are you prepared to support that Goldsmith? I will and I

:46:01.:46:07.

think it is needed. Maria Miller should be out there. The people of

:46:08.:46:11.

Basingstoke added big public meeting. They want a say. They want

:46:12.:46:18.

a chance to vote her out. They should have that right. It is five

:46:19.:46:24.

years on from the expensive scandal, before you went to Parliament. How

:46:25.:46:28.

do you improve the image of parliament? People still think you

:46:29.:46:35.

are a bunch of crooks. The relationship is broken. You need to

:46:36.:46:40.

try to let people have a say when something has gone wrong. You are

:46:41.:46:47.

dreaming if there is `` if you think there is something that we can do

:46:48.:46:51.

where people will think that politicians are not just out to help

:46:52.:46:55.

them in pockets. We can give more power to people but don't think they

:46:56.:46:59.

will think differently from now. How would you improve the image, John

:47:00.:47:05.

Mann? As every MP had said, it is answering the questions that people

:47:06.:47:09.

like yourself ask! But even with that people like yourself ask! But

:47:10.:47:11.

even without, it will take a long time to heal this relationship. Do

:47:12.:47:19.

you have a moat? It is difficult to get a moat around a terraced house.

:47:20.:47:23.

Campaigning is under way for the European elections which take place

:47:24.:47:25.

on May 22nd. With Britain's future in Europe the subject of much

:47:26.:47:29.

debate, Len Tingle has been back to a West Yorkshire village which held

:47:30.:47:32.

its own referendum on whether we should remain part of the EU.

:47:33.:47:42.

The mighty European Union. 28 countries, half a billion

:47:43.:47:43.

population, breathtakingly grand institutional buildings and ?120

:47:44.:47:51.

billion annual budget. The parish of Crigglestone. Five

:47:52.:47:54.

small villages, 9000 population, turn`of`the`century parish hall and

:47:55.:48:04.

an annual budget of just ?14,000. `` ?40,000. But back in 2007, a chunk

:48:05.:48:09.

of that budget had to be spent holding a local referendum on the

:48:10.:48:12.

question of whether we really should be part of the European Union. So

:48:13.:48:15.

why is it that it tiny little place like this was holding a referendum

:48:16.:48:19.

on EU mothership at all? Well, it was because anti`European Union

:48:20.:48:21.

campaigners spotted a loophole in the 1972 Local Government Act. It

:48:22.:48:28.

said that if ten people, just ten, signed a petition, then they could

:48:29.:48:31.

force the parish council to hold a referendum on any subject at all.

:48:32.:48:39.

And that subject was sparked by the then Labour Prime Minister Gordon

:48:40.:48:43.

Brown. He joined other prime ministers and presidents and signed

:48:44.:48:46.

a new agreement on how the European Union should be governed and grow.

:48:47.:48:51.

But he refused to hold a national referendum on the issue. And that is

:48:52.:48:57.

where Crigglestone came in. One of five tiny parishes across England

:48:58.:48:59.

where angry opponents of the European Union forced their own

:49:00.:49:02.

referendums to be held to put the issue into the national headlines.

:49:03.:49:09.

The driving force behind the controversial moves to force the

:49:10.:49:12.

parish to hold a referendum was former Olympic rower Alex Story. He

:49:13.:49:17.

was then prospective Conservative Party candidate for the constituency

:49:18.:49:24.

of Wakefield. `` the year respective Conservative Party `` the

:49:25.:49:28.

Eurosceptic. At the time, he denied it was a political stunt and a waste

:49:29.:49:32.

of time. Despite the Conservatives campaigning hard, only around 500

:49:33.:49:35.

bothered to vote, less than 10%. But of those that did, an overwhelming

:49:36.:49:38.

majority backed what was in effect a call for an immediate national

:49:39.:49:43.

referendum on our EU membership. An issue that clearly hasn't gone away.

:49:44.:49:48.

We want to govern our own country, make our own laws, control our own

:49:49.:49:53.

borders... Nigel Farage's UKIP were not part of that referendum seven

:49:54.:49:57.

years ago, but they did use the same loophole in other similar parish

:49:58.:50:05.

referendums across the country. And on a far larger stage, Nigel Farage

:50:06.:50:08.

was beating the same drum at his launch of this year's election

:50:09.:50:15.

campaign in Sheffield. In fact, only the Liberal Democrats are ruling out

:50:16.:50:18.

any sort of referendum on UK membership. We need to vote to get

:50:19.:50:27.

Labour candidates in the town halls and Labour MPs in the European

:50:28.:50:30.

Parliament. Labour launched its campaign in Dewsbury this week and

:50:31.:50:32.

even as its candidates highlighted the importance of its membership,

:50:33.:50:35.

one senior Labour MP, Bassetlaw's John Mann, was urging the party to

:50:36.:50:43.

set up a date for a referendum. And as for the Conservatives, Alex Story

:50:44.:50:47.

is now one of its candidates for the European elections. With the

:50:48.:50:51.

leadership flatly denying it has a problem with the issue of a

:50:52.:50:57.

referendum. We passed a law that gives this country a referendum

:50:58.:51:00.

lock. No more powers going over to Brussels without a referendum for

:51:01.:51:04.

the British people. So, almost seven years on, should that tiny

:51:05.:51:06.

Crigglestone referendum be reassessed? A political stunt, or a

:51:07.:51:17.

trailblazer? We have also been joined by Julio

:51:18.:51:22.

Gash. She is an award`winning entrepreneur from Sheffield. Ten

:51:23.:51:28.

years ago, you stood as a Lib Dem candidate in the European elections.

:51:29.:51:31.

Why do you think that we have become more Eurosceptic in the last decade?

:51:32.:51:36.

I think there are issues which have not been answered by national

:51:37.:51:40.

politicians and by European politicians. We need answers and

:51:41.:51:45.

those answers are not thinking indicated clearly. As such, it is

:51:46.:51:49.

allowing an open field for like Nigel Farage. What sort of questions

:51:50.:51:55.

are you talking about? Questions like, how is Europe run? It is very

:51:56.:52:01.

very, very opaque. I was saying this ten years ago, people are not

:52:02.:52:11.

knowing what is going on. It allows people to fill the vacuum and bring

:52:12.:52:16.

in scare stories. Where there are gaps in people's knowledge, there is

:52:17.:52:25.

fear. You had a referendum, what were the results? 50% to leave the

:52:26.:52:35.

EU, some don't knows. That is similar to a survey I had six or

:52:36.:52:40.

seven years ago. That was not overall in favour. The consistency

:52:41.:52:46.

there `` there is consistency there. The issue that emerges is

:52:47.:52:51.

immigration. We shouldn't hide away from it. The issue on the doorstep

:52:52.:52:56.

is not that power of its power, a minority are interested in that. It

:52:57.:53:00.

is about immigration, people feeling that there is too much. David

:53:01.:53:05.

Cameron has been all over the TV and the newspapers talking about

:53:06.:53:10.

immigration. Is he running scared of UKIP? Not at all. He has said that

:53:11.:53:19.

we will have an in out referendum if there is a Conservative majority

:53:20.:53:23.

after the next election. We brought forward air a `` a bill about having

:53:24.:53:30.

a referendum which was defeated. But all the issues we are talking about

:53:31.:53:35.

boil down to the fact whether people want to be in and out of Europe. We

:53:36.:53:40.

should look at the Scottish referendum, things which now have

:53:41.:53:46.

front`page coverage. It ties into the argument that area is not

:53:47.:53:49.

explored, stories are not explain. When you have a referendum, when

:53:50.:53:53.

there is something coming around the corner, all sides of the argument

:53:54.:53:58.

put forward. That is very important on its own. So do you welcome

:53:59.:54:01.

Cameron Potter promise of a referendum? Not necessarily, and the

:54:02.:54:08.

example of Crigglestone shows why this is the case. You get people

:54:09.:54:12.

with extreme views who will manipulate it for their own agenda

:54:13.:54:18.

`` agenda. People did not turn up and it was a very costly exercise.

:54:19.:54:24.

We work for people at a local level and an international level. I don't

:54:25.:54:29.

think that a referendum what's all that is you. Politicians are

:54:30.:54:33.

accountable for communicating on all issues, national or European. They

:54:34.:54:38.

do not. Immigration is an issue which has not been debated but a

:54:39.:54:41.

referendum is not the place for that. John Mann, you have written to

:54:42.:54:45.

your party leader demanding a referendum. Why do think he is

:54:46.:54:53.

wrong? Advising politely! I am in favour of having that debate is

:54:54.:54:56.

separate from elections. The problem is this. The Tories say they want a

:54:57.:55:04.

referendum, but on what? They want a more flexible labour market, more

:55:05.:55:10.

zero hours contracts and more agency workers. That is exactly what is

:55:11.:55:15.

fuelling the debate. People want less agencies, no zero hour

:55:16.:55:20.

contracts. They don't want this flexible labour market and neither

:55:21.:55:24.

do why. That is their big problem with immigration. People have

:55:25.:55:27.

nothing against Eastern Europeans, they just think that it is driving

:55:28.:55:33.

down jobs and wages. My job, my wages. Agencies are undermining that

:55:34.:55:39.

more. Cameron and UKIP want more of it. What Cameron should do is get

:55:40.:55:44.

that sorted and the public would say, good on you. I will let Alec

:55:45.:55:53.

Shelbrooke answer that. If you look at our plans, we want to renegotiate

:55:54.:55:57.

border controls. We don't deserve free movement of trade, we have free

:55:58.:56:03.

movement of people moving to enjoy benefits. That leads to immigration

:56:04.:56:10.

becoming a problem. It is 5% on average, in my constituency of

:56:11.:56:14.

people I speak to, so it is not a scientific poll, say that they went

:56:15.:56:18.

into a common market and they want a common market. They don't want

:56:19.:56:23.

federalisation. Whatever the discussion is, whatever happens, the

:56:24.:56:28.

British people are not going to be satisfied until they are given a

:56:29.:56:34.

choice of in or out. Julio Gash? I think the issue of immigration and

:56:35.:56:38.

jobs is a bit of a funny one because at the end of the day, what will

:56:39.:56:42.

happen if we are not in Europe, what will happen to the factories which

:56:43.:56:46.

are supposedly employing all these immigrants? Where are they going to

:56:47.:56:49.

find the people to fill those jobs would be productivity level and the

:56:50.:56:54.

wage level? Were there be in this country or will this companies

:56:55.:57:00.

relocate `` will those companies relocate to Poland? You have to see

:57:01.:57:03.

to businesses as to how they would respond. Briefly, I would say that

:57:04.:57:09.

is an argument in favour of staying. None of these arguments will come to

:57:10.:57:12.

the fork until there is a referendum about in or out. How do you get

:57:13.:57:17.

people in places like Sheffield to love Europe? Being at the heart of

:57:18.:57:24.

Europe means jobs. We need to export to Europe, it is our biggest market.

:57:25.:57:28.

We need to make an export things that is what makes Yorkshire great.

:57:29.:57:32.

That is what makes Britain great. I'll be hosting a radio debate on

:57:33.:57:35.

the European elections, with some of the candidates standing in the

:57:36.:57:38.

Yorkshire and Humber region. That will be on Thursday lunchtime from

:57:39.:57:41.

12 noon on BBC Radio Humberside, BBC Radio Leeds, BBC Radio Sheffield and

:57:42.:57:44.

BBC Radio York. Tweet me at iredalepolitics if you want to put

:57:45.:57:53.

question to the candidates. Again that's the Yorkshire and Humber

:57:54.:57:56.

debate from 12 noon on Thursday. Let's get some more of the week's

:57:57.:57:59.

political news now. Louise Martin has our round`up in 60 seconds.

:58:00.:58:04.

Skipton Conservative MP Julian Smith blasted a quarter of Yorkshire's MPs

:58:05.:58:07.

who either voted against HS2 or failed to vote at all. He says that

:58:08.:58:12.

the county is in danger of overlooking a phenomenal

:58:13.:58:14.

opportunity, a ?50 billion scheme which the Shadow Transport Secretary

:58:15.:58:17.

and Wakefield MP Mary Cray said the Labour Party would back, but with

:58:18.:58:25.

caveats. There is no blank cheque. The biggest risk to the project is

:58:26.:58:29.

political, political delay. Further prayers were said for the

:58:30.:58:32.

family of Ann McGuire, the Leeds teacher who was killed on Monday. ``

:58:33.:58:37.

will be said today. Praise was poured on the dedication of the

:58:38.:58:40.

loving teacher and mother and the close`knit community around Corpus

:58:41.:58:45.

Christi which she helped to create. Firefighters across Yorkshire have

:58:46.:58:47.

been taking strike action this weekend as part of a long`running

:58:48.:58:52.

dispute over pensions. The Fire Brigades' Union members walked out

:58:53.:58:55.

over changes to pensions and their retirement age. The government

:58:56.:58:58.

claims that firefighters have a generous pension scheme.

:58:59.:59:10.

Alec Shelbrooke, you'll Conservative colleague, Julian Smith, says

:59:11.:59:14.

Yorkshire people are not in the zest enough about HS2. I think he said

:59:15.:59:20.

Yorkshire MPs are not enthusiastic enough. Some others abstained on

:59:21.:59:28.

Monday night. It is important project for the city of lead but it

:59:29.:59:31.

cannot be built on the backs of hard`working people's losing equity

:59:32.:59:38.

`` loss of equity in their houses. The government has moved from where

:59:39.:59:42.

it was not far enough. Therefore, it was not enough to vote down, but it

:59:43.:59:46.

was not enough metres aborted. John Mann, you are sceptical and HS2? I'm

:59:47.:59:53.

not bothered about houses in the Cotswolds. I want all the contracts

:59:54.:59:58.

going to British companies to do the manufacturing and building. That is

:59:59.:00:01.

not in there, I want that built`in, that every single job that comes

:00:02.:00:05.

from this will go into British workers including in the North of

:00:06.:00:10.

England, including Bassetlaw. So why did 15 Yorkshire MPs at staying on

:00:11.:00:14.

that vote? Surely you should have put your money where your mouth is?

:00:15.:00:22.

I have. I have said exactly why I will support the Project for Leeds.

:00:23.:00:28.

I will wait until it is good for my constituency, I couldn't care less

:00:29.:00:33.

about the Cotswolds. M Stich runs have seen their houses devastated

:00:34.:00:37.

and until there is a compensation package in place, I cannot bring

:00:38.:00:41.

myself to say yes to this. It was just phase one, but it is important

:00:42.:00:45.

that we get these things right at the start so that when the project

:00:46.:00:51.

comes along, people are not losing out. Do you think people are

:00:52.:00:55.

confused on Labour's position on this? There were discouraging noises

:00:56.:00:59.

from Ed Balls. Now Mary Cray says she's behind the project. We don't

:01:00.:01:05.

know Labour stands. I think Ed Miliband has been clear all along.

:01:06.:01:09.

He is in favour of it and he wants to make sure that British jobs are

:01:10.:01:13.

created from it and the contracts will go to British companies. If

:01:14.:01:18.

that happens, the Labour Party will be totally unified. Do you think

:01:19.:01:20.

your government can when people around? I think what is important is

:01:21.:01:27.

closing down the North`South divide. As the HS2 as important project to

:01:28.:01:32.

do that. The infrastructure for transport in Leeds is nowhere near

:01:33.:01:36.

as good as elsewhere. The government says that billions will be invested

:01:37.:01:40.

bringing the railway line to Leeds. We have to support that that we have

:01:41.:01:43.

to make sure that is done correctly and fairly and in the right way. You

:01:44.:01:50.

are confident, John Mann, that, `` that investment in these codes

:01:51.:01:54.

mainline will not suffer? I am already well on the case to insure

:01:55.:01:59.

that investment on the East Coast railway line, all the lines across

:02:00.:02:04.

to the HS2, will not suffer. That's about it from us. Thanks to

:02:05.:02:05.

our guests today John Mann That's about it from us. Thanks to

:02:06.:02:08.

our guests today John Mann and Alec Shelbrooke. Now let's go back to

:02:09.:02:09.

Andrew Neil Welcome back. Now, the Government is

:02:10.:02:15.

not very good at predicting the future. That's according to a report

:02:16.:02:18.

from a committee of MPs this morning who say that its Horizon Scanning

:02:19.:02:21.

programme that's supposed to identify potential threats, risks,

:02:22.:02:23.

emerging issues and opportunities isn't much good at reading the tea

:02:24.:02:29.

leaves. But can it really be any worse than our panel? Here they are

:02:30.:02:33.

predicting the future of then culture secretary Maria Miller

:02:34.:02:43.

before Easter. Can she survive? I'm getting out of

:02:44.:02:46.

the prediction game after I said Nick Clegg would win the debates.

:02:47.:02:53.

But I almost think she might. If there is a big event that moves this

:02:54.:02:58.

off the front pages. David Cameron will want to keep Maria Miller until

:02:59.:03:05.

at least his summary shuffle. I think they will get rid of her. I

:03:06.:03:11.

think they will do the decent thing after exhausting all other options.

:03:12.:03:16.

Maria Miller resigned a few days later of course! The best and the

:03:17.:03:25.

brightest, when did that slip in? This week it will be exactly a year

:03:26.:03:29.

until the General Election, so what better time to get our panel to gaze

:03:30.:03:36.

into their crystal balls again. What's the outcome of the election

:03:37.:03:42.

in 2015? I'm going to go with the polls and say Ed Miliband as the

:03:43.:03:50.

Prime Minister. But the polls are only a snapshot of opinion now, you

:03:51.:03:55.

think they will be the same in a year? No, I think they will narrow.

:03:56.:04:02.

I think UKIP's vote share will fall. I think they are currently coasting

:04:03.:04:07.

on a high and that will tailor way so they won't take as many votes off

:04:08.:04:15.

the Tories. Labour with a majority or is the largest party. Another

:04:16.:04:22.

liberal Conservative coalition, and I say that because he is already in

:04:23.:04:28.

touching distance of Labour. I don't think UKIP will get 15, maybe half

:04:29.:04:34.

of that, and most of the votes they lose will either not vote at all go

:04:35.:04:38.

to the Tories and that should be enough to be the biggest party in a

:04:39.:04:43.

hung parliament I don't envisage a Tory majority. I am also going to go

:04:44.:04:49.

with the polls. For Ed Miliband to be hoping to win at this stage, he

:04:50.:04:53.

has got to be way ahead in the polls. Labour needs to be much

:04:54.:05:01.

further ahead if he is going to win so David Cameron, probably the

:05:02.:05:05.

leader of the largest party. Last time after the election David

:05:06.:05:09.

Cameron went to the 1922 committee and announced he was Prime Minister

:05:10.:05:13.

as head of the Coalition. He has agreed this time he will consult

:05:14.:05:17.

them and it will be much more difficult for him to get a

:05:18.:05:22.

coalition. People at home have now concluded there will be a Liberal

:05:23.:05:28.

Democrat landslide! Are we going to have debates? Yes, probably further

:05:29.:05:33.

away from polling day then last time. That is the Liberal Democrat

:05:34.:05:40.

point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all the life out of the campaign, so the

:05:41.:05:46.

last six weeks will be left to traditional campaigning. What did

:05:47.:05:49.

you make of this in the Sunday Times this morning, this two, three, five

:05:50.:05:59.

formula. There should be a Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then

:06:00.:06:06.

there should be another one with them and UKIP and the Greens. It

:06:07.:06:17.

might be testing the patience of the nation to tune into all of those. If

:06:18.:06:22.

you're going to say Nigel Farage should be there, the Green party

:06:23.:06:27.

should be too. They know that as soon as you put them on a podium

:06:28.:06:33.

next to them, he looks like he has equal stature and that is a problem.

:06:34.:06:38.

David Cameron does not want the debates to happen on the way they

:06:39.:06:43.

happened last time. It is generally regarded, Lynton Crosby believes

:06:44.:06:48.

they were a disaster for David Cameron because they allowed Nick

:06:49.:06:53.

Clegg to be the fresh person. He knows he cannot say no to them so

:06:54.:06:58.

the moment you see David Cameron suggesting that Caroline Lucas

:06:59.:07:03.

should be in the debate, you know he is not serious. What he will try to

:07:04.:07:07.

do is have more debates, have them outside the main part of the general

:07:08.:07:11.

election so that it doesn't dominate. The problem the David

:07:12.:07:14.

Cameron is that the campaign will be much longer. It is a five-week

:07:15.:07:21.

campaign so it is quite difficult for him to say we will only have one

:07:22.:07:27.

debate in that campaign. I think smother it with love, hopefully it

:07:28.:07:30.

will go to the courts for him and hopefully they will never happen and

:07:31.:07:36.

he will be delighted. The European election and the local elections are

:07:37.:07:40.

coming up. The three mainstream parties are saying it is a flash in

:07:41.:07:44.

the pan, they don't really matter and so on, but if UKIP comes a

:07:45.:07:51.

strong first, if Labour comes a poor second and the Tories come a poor

:07:52.:07:56.

third, it will have consequences for all three, and the Lib Dems come

:07:57.:08:02.

forth or even fish. It will have consequences and not just in the

:08:03.:08:06.

media but on the ground. One of the big stories is what will happen to

:08:07.:08:09.

the Lib Dems, they face losing all of their MEPs. A good result for

:08:10.:08:18.

them is lit -- in the local elections is losing 250 councillors.

:08:19.:08:22.

These are the most interesting elections we have had for some

:08:23.:08:29.

time. Are we heading for a Nick Clegg summer leadership crisis? I

:08:30.:08:32.

think we are heading towards reversing the clock back to where we

:08:33.:08:36.

were before the Eastleigh by-election. That quiet and things

:08:37.:08:42.

down for Nick Clegg. If they lose all their MEPs, and there is a real

:08:43.:08:47.

chance they will, Vince Cable will be out on manoeuvres because age is

:08:48.:08:52.

not on his side. If he can say Nick Clegg is a loser and a failure, he

:08:53.:08:59.

will be back. Will the Tories go into headless chicken mode if they

:09:00.:09:14.

come third? Yes, if UKIP come first there will not be as much panic as

:09:15.:09:21.

if Labour come first. Is Labour comes a poor second, will there be

:09:22.:09:26.

some pressure on Ed Miliband to reopen his attitude to the

:09:27.:09:30.

referendum? I don't think so and my colleague was talking to Labour

:09:31.:09:34.

sources who said he is absolutely not going to. That is something you

:09:35.:09:38.

can say definitely about him, he decides on a course and he sticks to

:09:39.:09:44.

it. There is one potential upside for David Cameron in a really bad

:09:45.:09:49.

Conservative results, it could strengthen his hand in the

:09:50.:09:53.

renegotiations of Britain's EU membership because he doesn't even

:09:54.:09:57.

need to say to Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande it is there. David

:09:58.:10:05.

Cameron hasn't just been fighting for his party into the local

:10:06.:10:10.

elections. He also got his knuckles wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow,

:10:11.:10:12.

at Prime Minister's Question Time, for talking for too long. Take a

:10:13.:10:19.

look at this. There is a better future ahead of us but we must not

:10:20.:10:25.

go backward to the policies that put us in this mess in the first place.

:10:26.:10:30.

I don't know what they are paying him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I

:10:31.:10:48.

haven't finished! In response to that question, the Prime Minister

:10:49.:10:51.

has finished and he can take it from me that he has finished. I can't

:10:52.:10:59.

remember a speaker ever speaking to a Prime Minister like that. Clearly

:11:00.:11:05.

in that case, John Bercow crossed a line. It is Prime Minister 's

:11:06.:11:10.

questions, he is entitled to answer the questions. There is really bad

:11:11.:11:15.

blood between those two, going back a long way. They hate each other and

:11:16.:11:21.

the worrying thing about that was the look of triumphalism on the

:11:22.:11:27.

speaker's face afterwards. He is a remarkable, revolutionary speaker

:11:28.:11:30.

who has made the House of Commons more relevant, he is holding the

:11:31.:11:35.

executive to account, but that look on his face showed he had crossed

:11:36.:11:40.

the line. Does he survive after the next election? He has improved the

:11:41.:11:44.

importance of the Commons, is that enough to keep him in the Speaker 's

:11:45.:11:51.

chair? The most public bit of the Commons is still the Prime Minister

:11:52.:11:57.

's questions, and we can conclude that John Bercow's interventions

:11:58.:12:01.

take more time than any delays he complains about so I wouldn't be

:12:02.:12:08.

surprised if, in a few years' time, someone else replaces him. He is

:12:09.:12:16.

quite popular with Labour, is he not? Yes, he is married to a Labour

:12:17.:12:22.

activist and is notably sympathetic to Labour but I think this is a

:12:23.:12:27.

difficult situation. David Cameron also overstepped the line. As soon

:12:28.:12:32.

as the speaker says order, the idea is that the House was to order and

:12:33.:12:38.

David Cameron pushed him. They are both trying to score points off each

:12:39.:12:44.

other. We cover Prime Minister 's questions every week on the daily

:12:45.:12:51.

politics, and there is a danger that he sees it as an opportunity to do

:12:52.:12:55.

some grandstanding. You slightly sends his vanity gets the better of

:12:56.:13:00.

him. It is supposed to be Prime Minister 's questions. At the end of

:13:01.:13:04.

that session, the Speaker read out a statement from the Chief clerk, and

:13:05.:13:10.

immensely respected figure, saying he is taking early retirement. It is

:13:11.:13:15.

pretty clear that the reason he has decided to go early is because he is

:13:16.:13:19.

finding it tricky to maintain a cordial relationship with the

:13:20.:13:22.

speaker, and the speaker might want to think about his man management

:13:23.:13:27.

skills. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will be back on BBC

:13:28.:13:30.

Two at lunchtime from Tuesday onwards. Remember, it is a bank

:13:31.:13:34.

holiday tomorrow. I'll be back here at 11am next week. Remember - if

:13:35.:13:37.

it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:38.:13:42.

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