19/11/2017 Sunday Politics Yorkshire and Lincolnshire

Morning everyone, and welcome

to the Sunday Politics.

I'm Sarah Smith.

And this is your guide

to all the big stories that

are shaping politics this weekend,

and a few of the smaller ones too.

Philip Hammond is getting ready

to deliver his latest Budget

on Wednesday and he's not short

of advice - to spend more,

show restraint, even

to stop being an Eyore -

but can he change the direction

of the country and his government?

Conservative Party darling

Jacob Rees-Mogg has

some advice of his own.

He thinks the Chancellor

is being far too gloomy about Brexit

- he joins me live to explain why.

The former Leave campaign leader,

Gisela Stuart, will be here debating

with pro-EU campaigner

Alastair Campbell, after taking

a trip to her native Germany

to speak to businesses

about Brexit.

And, as we wait to find out what's

on the menu for this week's budget,

we're in a diner off

the A1 in Peterborough,

finding out who people most trust

with the economy -

Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?

On the Sunday Politics in Yorkshire

and Lincolnshire, we will be finding

out what people really want to see

in the budget with Brexit, jobs and

benefit cuts high on the agenda.

All that coming up in the programme.

And with me for for all of it,

three journalists who've promised

not to show off like Michael Gove

by using any long economicky words -

although I'm not sure they really

know that many anyway -

it's Tom Newton Dunn,

Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.

Let's take a look at the big

political stories making the news

this Sunday morning,

and as you might expect there's

plenty of speculation

about what might or not might be

in Philip Hammond's Budget.

The Chancellor is promising a big

investment in new technology,

including driverless cars -

which could be on the road by 2021.

He's been interviewed

in the Sunday Times,

where he talks about plans to reach

the target of building

300,000 homes every year,

or the equivalent of a city

the size of Leeds.

That paper speculates that he's

attempting to turn from "fiscal

Phil" into "hopeful Hammond"

as he tries to set out

a vision for the country,

not just a list of numbers.

The Sunday Telegraph thinks that

Mr Hammond is planning to offer

a pay rise to nurses as part

of a bid to take on Labour.

But that hasn't impressed

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.

He's spoken to a number of papers

and is calling for an emergency

budget to invest in public services

and help struggling households.

So that's a taste of what you might

hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond

and Mr McDonnell have both been

appearing this morning

on the Andrew Marr Show.

I think Britain has a very

bright future ahead of it,

and we have to embrace

the opportunities that

a post-Brexit world will offer.

They will be opportunities that

are based on huge change,

huge technological evolution.

It's not always going to be easy,

but the British people have shown

time and time again that we're up

for these challenges.

For many people out there,

this is a depression.

We've had people whose wages

have been cut by 10%.

Nurses, for example.

We've had people who are now...

1.25 million food parcels handed out

in the sixth richest

country in the world.

That's what I call a recession

for large numbers of people.

We will be talking about Labour and

their economic policies in a moment,

but let's start with what we might

expect from the budget. We will talk

to our panel of political observers.

Philip Hammond is under pressure to

set out a bold vision and reset the

government's programme. Can we

expect that?

No, we can't. We have

heard enough from the Chancellor

across various broadcast and his

article in the Sunday Times. I think

we will not be getting a bold

budget. His precise words short... A

short time ago were a balanced

budget. Some Tory hearts will think.

They desperately want something to

go out and shout about, something to

capture people's imagination, and do

big and bold things, like how on

earth are they going to build those

new 300,000 houses a year? There are

good reasons why he has chosen what

appears to be a pretty staid,

Conservative budget, and that is

that they are probably unable to get

anything bold through Parliament.

His capital is so low among Tory

MPs. If you have a minority

government, it is tricky.

We have

seen ministers on programmes like

this in the last few weeks putting

in the bids for what they would like

spending on, whether it be payment

for nurses or parliament. Would he

struggled to get something radical

through the Commons?

Big ideas cost

money. That's the problem. Bold

ideas are controversial. In some

ways, Tory MPs are asking their

Chancellor to do the impossible.

Government is already doing

something big and bold, which is

Brexit. That has implications for

how much money is available, how

many risks you want to take with

everything else. What is crucial is

that he demonstrates a reputation

for competence. The reputation that

the Conservative government has for

economic competence, that many

people prefer them to Labour on the

issue of economic competence. The

worst thing he could do is come up

with a big, bold idea that

unravelled quickly. What they

absolutely don't want is to come up

with an exciting idea that falls

apart three days after the budget.

He is under pressure from

Brexiteers, who are suspicious of

him. Does he have to offer them

something?

Part of his problem is he

has to offer so many different

people different things. This is

Philip Hammond trying to be and

dynamic.

It is hard to tell

sometimes.

At least in theoretical

terms. His longer-term difficulty is

that, if you look at the economic

cycle, we are getting to a point

where we are probably overdue, if

you put Brexit to one side, overdue

some kind of correction or downturn,

if you look what has happened to

asset prices globally. What will be

worrying for the Treasury is, just

as everyone is saying we should turn

on the taps and build this or that,

we might be at the top of a cycle,

and the Treasury will want to lose

something in the armoury in terms of

probably growing the deficit if

there are economic difficulties in

the next two years, and then there

is Brexit as well.

It sounds

impossible.

I think so. Talking to

his friends and colleagues over the

last few days, he had to make a

call, which was precisely how much

can I get away with, with my

political capital being as low as it

is, with the mixed problems he had

at the last budget, and a lot of the

party disliking his approach to

Brexit. He is damned if he is,

damned if he doesn't. Universal

Credit, we are expecting a reduction

in the time it takes to wait,

business rates, affected by high

inflation... I think we will see a

problem fixing budget which will

probably do quite a lot of important

spadework in many areas.

We will

pick up on some of this later in the

programme.

Let's speak now to the Conservative

MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week

he helpfully launched an alternative

"budget for Brexit" and advised

the Chancellor to be less gloomy

about the consequences

of leaving the EU.

Thank you for joining us. Your

alternative budget is pretty

radical. Almost half corporation

tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the

London market. It seems you are

advocating the opposite from what we

will hear from your Chancellor on

Wednesday.

There are two parts to

the proposals I suggested. One is

that we should show that after we

have left the European Union, the UK

is open to the rest of the world. It

is about opening up to the rest of

the world. Secondly, looking at the

modelling that has been done by the

Treasury and some other forecasters,

which has been so comprehensively

wrong. The forecasts made about what

would happen after Brexit have

turned out to be hopelessly false.

The team at Cardiff University have

done some modelling based on the

classical economic principles and

what happens if you move to free

trade that would be very positive

for the economy.

You are predicting

a Brexit dividend of £135 billion,

which sounds fantastic. Why are you

right, and everybody else, including

the Bank of England and the

Institute for Fiscal Studies, why

are they all wrong?

It depends on

the type of modelling. The modelling

that have been done by the Treasury

have been based on gravity models,

which work on the basis of the

nearness of the market and the size

of the economy you are trading with.

These have been wrong in the past.

They predicted that if we joined the

euro, trade would grow by 300%. That

was then revised down to 200%, but

it is fantasyland. The model I am

working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,

who has a record of getting these

things right. He was right about the

exchange rate mechanism, right about

the euro.

Being right in the past

doesn't mean you are right about the

future. Why do you think the

Treasury will not pick up the same

numbers, if this is so obvious to

you?

I think the Treasury was

humiliated by the errors in its

forecast prior to Brexit, and is

trying to defend its position. The

short-term economic consequences of

a vote to leave was one of the most

dishonest documents to come out of

the Treasury, purely a piece of

political propaganda. They are

wounded by that and sticking to the

same script, rather than looking at

other forecasts and other experts.

You think the governor of the Bank

of England is an enemy of Brexit,

and it sounds like you think the

Treasury is opposed to it. As the

Chancellor fallen under their spell

as well, and been persuaded to be an

enemy of Brexit?

I have admiration

the Chancellor, but George Osborne,

his predecessor, was the architect

of Project Fear. He was too close to

the Bank of England and lost his

independence. That is what needs to

change. It is an opportunity in the

budget for Philip Hammond to show he

is putting aside the Treasury's

mistakes in the past. It is very

encouraging what he is saying this

morning, about a more positive

approach to Brexit.

Lord Lawson has

accused Philip Hammond of being very

close to sabotage on Brexit. He says

we need a can-do man at the Treasury

and not a prophet of doom.

I think

that Philip Hammond is an

exceptionally intelligent man, a

very thoughtful man. It is not a bad

thing to have a Chancellor who is

serious minded and steady, rather

than one who is a showman and uses

the Exchequer to interfere in

absolutely everything.

I have a lot

of confidence in the Chancellor.

When you launched your budget for

Brexit, you said the government has

to deliver the £350 million for the

NHS that was delivered during the

referendum, even though you didn't

think that promise should have been

made. Is that something they now

need to deliver wrong?

It is. This

only happens once we have left.

Politicians have to recognise that

voters don't look at the small print

of electoral policies. If you put

£350 million on the side of a bus

and say it may be available for the

NHS, it is reasonable for people to

think that is a promise. Brexit was

won by the Leave campaign, so it it

is important that they deliver on

that promise. Politicians must keep

faith with voters and deliver on

implied promises, as well as ones

that are set out in detail.

The

Cabinet will move on to talk about

the Brexit bill this week, and we

understand they may need to come up

with more money to satisfy EU

demands. The more money spent on

that is less money available for

things like spending on the NHS. Are

you worried about the size of the

exit bill?

You have your finger on

the important point. The government

will have to choose whether to give

lots of money to the European Union,

or whether to spend money on UK

public services, and that will be

part of the negotiation. On all

these issues, it comes down to

choice is the government makes. I

would encourage the government to

choose our own domestic public

services rather than expensive

schemes in continent or Europe.

Why

are you advocating that the

government should spend up to £2.5

billion on a no deal scenario?

It is important that we are ready to

leave in the event of no deal. If we

left with no deal we would on

current figures still be saving the

remains of 18 billion so we would be

saving 15 and a half billion against

paying for the financial framework.

To show we're ready on day one would

be money well spent and most would

be needed any way. We need to have

new customs arrangements in place

even if it is not for a no deal

situation.

There are suggestions

that the Government might back down

on the idea of putting the time and

date of leaving the EU on the face

of the bill. Would you be Exxon

certained if that was -- concerned

if that was remove prd the bill?

It

is in Article 50, unless Article 50

is extended by the Council of Europe

we leave on 20th March 2019 and it

makes accepts that should be the

same in -- sense that should be in

same in domestic law. But that is a

secondary concern from my point of

view. It is important that we leave

on that date.

Stay there if you

would.

We're joined in the studio

by the former minister

Stephen Hammond.

He's no relation to the Chancellor,

but he is a member

of the Treasury Select Committee

and he's one of the Tory MPs named

as "Brexit mutineers"

by the Daily Telegraph

this week - lucky him.

I'm assured you're no relation to

the Chancellor. Let's just pick up

on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying.

How important is it to you as a

rebel that the Government does put

the date on.

I agree with Jacob it

is in the Article 50 process, the

key reason it is important is the

negotiations look like they're going

to be tricky and longer than we

expected and it may well be that we

are still negotiating up until March

2019. We could have a short couple

of weeks period of extension. Why do

harm to the economy by falling out

on a precise time? If those

negotiations need to be extended.

They won't go on for more than a

couple of weeks, because there will

be elections in Europe in June 2019

and there is no chance of a new

commission or Parliament dealing

with this. Giving it flexibility and

with this flexibility the government

said it wants flexibility in

negotiations, why give all the

advantage to the other side? Part of

that was evidenced yesterday by

somebody suggesting they will ask

for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to

be suspended. That is as a result of

putting the date on the bill.

You

did not agree with the Brexit

committee and think it is important

that we set the date and time?

I

think it is perfectly reasonable to

set the date and time and I think

these negotiations fill the time

available. The United States and

Australia agreed a free trade deal

between April 2003 and February

2004. These things don't need to be

interm Knabl if both sides want to

agree. I think the British

electorate would be very concerned

if nearly three years after the vote

to leave, we still hadn't left. I

think most people expected that we

would have left by now. The

negotiations realistically to get

through the approval of the European

Parliament and so on need to be

completed by at the end of next

year, going up to the last minute I

don't think is real is tick.

To move

on to talk about a trade deal and

getting that done, the EU need to

agree to move on and we need to

settle the divorce, cabinet are

going to be talking about the amount

that needs to be spent on that,

Stephen what manned, are you happy

for the Government to offer more?

I

hope that the Government will stick

to the Florence speech in terms of

ensuring that we fulfil our

liabilities and obligations. I'm not

clear exactly whether that is 20

billion or 40 billion and I'm not

sure the government is. If part of

the divorce bill is then some

settlement for getting the trade

deal, we will need to examine that

carefully.

Jacob Rees Mogg, is this

that might spark another war in the

party if the cabinet suggest they're

prepared to pay more?

I think we

need to go back to what you said,

that the - the EU said they want us

to settle the money first. The

Government doesn't need to follow

that. They need our money. If we

don't pay any money for the final 21

months of the framework, the EU has

about 20 billion pounds gap in its

finances and it has no legal

requirement to borrow. So it

insolvents or the Germans and the

others pay more. So our position on

money is very strong and we

shouldn't fall into the trap of

thinking just because Mr Barnier

said it it is as if he has received

tablets of stone like Moses, he has

not.

There is a sense that the

Government feels a mo generous offer

would set a good tone, the kind of

approach that Jacob Rees Mogg

suggests would not make for smooth

relations.

It probably wouldn't. But

we have to be clear what we are

paying for and what we are getting.

No one is suggesting we should hand

over money without proper scrutiny.

It may be appropriate to put money

to facilitate international trade to

secure jobs. We have to be careful

about the analysis about what the

scale and size of Brexit dividend is

and the size of payments will be.

You mustn't confuse gross and net

and there is disagreement about some

of the numbers.

On that, Jacob Rees

Mogg in his budget for Brexit

suggests in five years time we would

have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do

you think it is real is tick.

He is

using some analysis that has some

flaws. It is predicting a price drop

in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff

drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is

predicting huge productivity gains,

the likes of which we have not seen

in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his

view on modellers there is evidence

that they weren't and if you go into

the detail of the analysis, some of

the data is 14 years out of date.

Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being

hopelessly optimistic?

I don't think

that right. I think the fall in

prices comes because you make the

economy more competitive and you

take away tariffs which reduces the

price of food by 20%. That is a big

reduction. Bear in mind that the

biggest tariffs hit food, clothing

and foot wear that, harm the poorest

in society the most. The gains from

productivity come from is in

additional tariffs. Leading to other

saving and further investment I

think the modelling done by the

professor is as good as modelling

can be. That doesn't mean it is

infallible. The failure of gravity

model is well known.

Michael Gove

was accused of auditioning for the

job of Chancellor by using long

words. Do you know any good long

economic words?

I don't think that

we want to get into this type of

business actually. I think all

Conservatives and Steven and I very

much agree on this, want to show as

united a front as we can manage.

There are differences on some

aspects of policy, but in terms of

individuals we want to stand

together and support the best

interests of the government.

Thank

you.

Brexit Secretary David Davis

was in Berlin this week trying

to win the support of business

leaders there for a comprehensive

free trade deal with the EU.

He warned them against putting

'politics above prosperity'

and reportedly got a bit

of a frosty reception.

Well, the former Labour MP

Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders

of the Vote Leave referendum

campaign.

We travelled with Gisela to Germany

to meet the business leaders

she says will help secure a good

trade deal for the UK.

Here's her film.

I was born and brought up

in this part of Germany,

and although I've lived in the UK

for the past 40 years,

and represented the constituency

of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20

years, my family still live here,

and I've kept many links.

I was chair of Vote Leave,

and together with only a handful

of other Labour MPs,

we campaigned to leave

the European Union because we

thought the country would be

better off outside.

It's hard to remember now, but back

in the 1970s, when we joined

the European Economic Community,

people thought that by joining

the club we would see the kind

of economic miracle Germany

experienced in the '70s back home.

The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder"

would come to Britain.

But, of course, it didn't.

Within a few short years

of the devastation of World War II,

Germany had emerged as

the largest economy in Europe.

Germany's extraordinary

success is down to

the pragmatism of its business.

German Mittelstand is family

dominated, forward-thinking,

long-term thinking, reliability,

are very important values.

Changing moods on a political

landscape and changing frameworks

are toxic for our way of doing

business, and we want

that to go away.

German business is not given

to making big political statements

out of step with government policy,

but talk to those in decision-making

positions, and it is clear

that they want to secure a good deal

with the United Kingdom.

BMW employs almost 90,000

people here in Germany,

and exports just under

1 million cars annually.

The UK is a vital market.

What we are really seeking right now

is more clarity, more certainty,

because in our cycle of investment,

cycle of development,

it's about a seven-year or so period

that we look at,

but we are now, of course, starting

to think about what comes next,

and what we need to see now

is what is going to be

the trading relationship,

how are the logistics going to look,

what is going to be

the requirements for people

moving across the continent?

Because all of these things

are important to us today.

And, by the way, they will be just

as important tomorrow.

Berlin is well aware that

if the European Commission

is allowed to put up trade barriers

against Britain, it will be

German business, German consumers

and German employees

who will suffer.

TRANSLATION:

I think it's very

important that we complete

the first phase successfully.

The first phase of the negotiations,

which looks at the financial

consequences of Great Britain

leaving the EU.

And then it's not a question

of punishment payments.

It's about when you are part

of a multilayer, contractual

obligation and you want to leave

that, then of course it takes

a whole lot of obligations

which you have to deal with,

so both sides are satisfied and can

live with the consequences.

It isn't everyone's interests

for the UK to part on good terms.

Of course there was going to be

upset when the UK voted to leave,

but creating uncertainty over

the terms of UK's exit will simply

have a disruptive effect

on exports to UK markets.

Far better to have a sensible,

amicable negotiation that results

both sides being able to trade

together and work

together post-Brexit.

Markus Krall is managing

director of Goetzpartners,

and heads the Financial

Institution Industry Group.

Is it true to say that,

if we negotiate Brexit well,

then a good Brexit can actually

strengthen the United Kingdom,

the European Union and Germany?

It's absolutely true.

I think that this

is about two things.

One, about proving that

free trade is possible

between a European Union that is

smaller and a former member country.

If you don't prove that free

trade is possible there,

then the question becomes,

what is Europe standing for?

Number two is, I also

believe the free trade,

free market and democratic and less

bureaucratic approach that Britain

has chosen as the path

into the future is a role

model for Europe.

The time has come both

for the United Kingdom

and for the EU to be more clear

about what kind of

deal we can achieve.

Both sides need to be bold.

As long as we remain open to free

trade and sensible co-operation,

we can arrive at something that

will benefit both sides.

But one thing's obvious -

if we are an open and free trading

economy, we've got one big

cheerleader on our side,

and that is German business.

That was Gisela Stuart

setting out her case

and we'll be hearing

from the opposite side

of the argument in the coming weeks.

Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio

now, as does Alastair Campbell.

He used to work for Tony Blair

in Number 10, set up

the New European Newspaper

to campaign against Brexit,

and is so pro-European that at this

year's Labour conference

he was heard playing Ode

to Joy on the bagpipes.

Welcome both of you.

We will start with your point in the

film, that you think the German

business once the EU to offer the UK

a generous deal because it is in

their interests, yet the president

of the German equivalent of the CBI

said that defending the single

market must be the priority for the

EU, and another says that the

cohesion of the remaining member

states remains the highest priority.

The president of the CBI just after

the referendum said that it would be

in nobody 's interest to introduce

tariffs and trade barriers. On the

UK side, I don't think there's a

full understanding that economic

interests are incredibly important,

that they are trying to cover

economic interests on the cohesion

of the 27. I think different

economic interests will raise the

head of different countries. The

German auto industry is as important

as the financial sector is here. The

banking crisis is far from over, but

the big riffs which were going on is

that the E U is losing its second

biggest net contributor. Countries

like Germany want a deal with the UK

that is a free open market. There

are other tensions in the EU that

wants to become more protectionist,

and that is a bad thing.

Looking at

the film there with the Jacob

Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what

side of leave you are, it is

delusional and all driven by wishful

thinking. You could find a

businessman who says Brexit will be

good for Germany. The vast bulk of

British businesses think this is a

disaster, as do the vast bulk of

European businesses. One of the

delusions on which they ran their

campaign is the idea that they need

us more than we need them. That is

not true.

Be you self about £80

billion more in goods and services

into the UK than we do to them, and

Germany has one of the biggest

deficits. It is in their interest.

Of course it is, but it is a myth

that they need us more than we need

them. The damage that will be done

to us, even with a good deal. Let's

be frank, where these negotiations

are, Theresa May is either going to

end up with a bad deal and dumber or

no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no

deal is a catastrophe.

You are

setting up ideas that which were not

there to begin with and knocking

them down. Delusional.

35 billion,

the Brexit bonus.

If we had a

referendum, it was a democratic

decision. I know you don't like it

and that a lot of business would

have preferred to stay with the

status quo. We have had the

referendum. Undermining political

institutions is in no one's

interests. It is functioning

democracies which lead to economic

stability.

Theresa May fought an

election Inc on a hard Brexit that

was rejected.

As we heard from BMW,

there is uncertainty for business.

There will be elections, European

elections, in 2019. There will be a

change of the Commission and the

parliament. We have a narrow window

to implement the mandate for the

referendum which Parliament voted

for. So rather than you undermining

this country, why don't you work

together to get the best deal?

Because we totally disagree.

You

don't want a good deal?

I'm in

favour of a good deal, and I could

give them some advice as to how they

get a good deal. First, you have a

cabinet that has an agreed strategy.

18 months in, they don't have that.

I am not undermining a deal. I am

continuing to pose questions about

what they are trying to do and how

they are trying to do it. This is

democracy. Democracy is the ability

for Parliament, which is not doing

its job properly, and the public, to

keep scrutinising, and if they want

to change their mind, having the

right to do that.

You were trying to

encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to

play hardball with the UK.

I am on

the side of the UK, and I am worried

that if we go down the path that we

are being taken down, and Theresa

May and Boris Johnson and the rest

of them, this shambolic path, we are

going to do fundamental, lasting

damage to the country we love. I

don't care about the Civil Aviation

Authority. I care about Britain. --

I don't care about the European

Union. If every lorry going into the

UK today was stopped for just two

minutes, we would create an instant

17 mile traffic jam. These people

just don't care...

I am not these

people! Let us not conflate... You

either decide that you are

implementing a democratic decision

of a referendum that was called and

over 17 million voted.

You will not

stop me debating it. Just as Nigel

Farage...

Stop talking about Nigel

Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not

Nigel Farage. There is no desire in

Germany to punish the United

Kingdom.

They are behaving

reasonably.

There is a battle of

protectionism and free market going

on. If we implement this properly,

give businesses the kind of

incentives they want, we can get a

good deal. So you want a bad deal?

You are driven by wishful thinking.

Gisela Stuart, you are saying that

business will intervene to prevent

things like tariffs being put in

place? They are leaving it a bit

late to put pressure on.

You will

find that business is laying out the

kind of things they need to get

those deals. I can find as much

fault with the speed of the

progress, but what I really do

resent is that you are actually

encouraging other countries to

undermine...

Know I am not! I spoke

out in support of the Irish

Taoiseach because I spent a lot of

time with Tony Blair and his team on

the Good Friday Agreement. The

people who are driving this hard

Brexit without thinking it through,

still no answer on how you do Brexit

in our island without a hard border.

I think the Irish Taoiseach is right

to call out the government on the

incompetence and the fact they have

not thought it through.

You accept

the result of the referendum and the

fact that we will be leaving the EU?

I accept the result of the

referendum, but I do not accept that

the country will definitely leave,

because the country is entitled to

change its mind. As the chaos and

costs mount, the public is entitled

to change its mind and will change

its mind.

There is no evidence at

the moment.

Come out with me!

Allow

me to finish the sentence. There is

a changing of mind happening, a

crystallisation. Unlike you, I have

fought five elections and I have won

five elections. I have probably

spoken to more people like you.

You

may do, I'm just saying, come out on

the road with me...

40% of the

population in the middle just want

us to get on with it. What that film

showed is that if you want to make

it a self-fulfilling prophecy that

it's a disaster, which I don't. I

want to implement a deal that is

good for British jobs. The rest of

the world is changing in terms of

technology. Currently, Germany

hasn't even got a government, and

nobody is laughing about that.

And

they are stable without a

government!

Let's leave it there.

It's coming up to 11.40,

you're watching the Sunday Politics.

Coming up on the programme,

we'll be looking at the latest

opinion polls and we'll bring

you the results of our moodbox

asking whether Phllip Hammond

or John McDonnell should be running

the economy.

Hello, and very good morning.

You are watching the Sunday Politics

for Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

Today, we have ditched the studio

and we have come to Grimsby to find

out what people here in the famous

old fishing town wants to see

in Wednesday's budget.

In a moment, we will hear

from business owners and apprentices

about their wish list for Philip

Hammond.

Plus, we will hear from one former

Chancellor who claims that

pretty soon our membership

of the European Union

will become a distant memory.

I think probably, in ten years'

time, people will even forget

that we were ever members

of the European Union.

But first, one of the week's biggest

political flash points came

when the Prime Minister was told

in the Commons that a landlord

here in Grimsby had sent letters

to tenants warning them

they could face eviction before

Universal Credit has even been fully

rolled out across this area.

It is the latest row

in the long-running saga over

the controversial benefit changes

which are affecting

a growing number of people

across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

As Richard Edwards now reports.

Joseph from Bradford

and Kerry from Grimsby.

They live 85 miles apart but say

claims for Universal Credit left

them worried they would end up

on the streets.

Really scary.

I thought that meant

that we had to be out

straightaway within two months.

So our first port of

call was the landlord

to see what was going on.

My first mistake was going

on to Universal Credit.

The worst -- the worst mistake.

Yes, I get my living allowance

as promised but the rent aside,

I'm still in the unknown about.

Tens of thousands of people

here in Leeds are due to be moved

to Universal Credit next June.

The city's ruling Labour group

is called for that plan to be

put on hold and it has

released these figures.

It says that more than 1000 people

were sanctioned in the first year.

77 of the sanctions saw people's

benefits stopped for three months.

Next June, 50,000 people who receive

housing benefit and 55 people

-- and 55,000 people

who are on tax credits are due to be

moved across to Universal Credit.

It is an issue that dominated this

week's Prime Minister's Questions.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn

mentioned a letter from Kerry's

lettings agency as he went

on the attack.

The letter says, and I quote,

"GAP property cannot sustain arrears

at the potential levels

Universal Credit could create."

What we see is that after four

months, the number of people

on Universal Credit in arrears has

fallen by one third.

Then came this question

on the effect of welfare

reform in Yorkshire.

Will the Prime Minister step in,

show some common sense and transfer

legacy identification from legacy

benefits over to Universal Credit

so these unnecessary delays don't

give my constituents more

pain and suffering.

Hear, hear!

This all adds to the pressure

on the Chancellor, Philip Hammond,

who will deliver the budget this

week, to announce some changes

to the Universal Credit plans.

And as I heard this week,

the pressure is not just

coming from Labour.

I'd like to see the six-week waiting

time brought down to four.

Six weeks is far too long.

Everybody who has got a mortgage,

everybody who gets paid a monthly

basis, we would find it very

difficult to budget

for a six-week period.

So why are people who are on lower

amounts going to find it easy?

Big towns and cities

across our region like Grimsby,

Scarborough and Bradford are due

to make the change to

Universal Credit by next March.

Here in Leeds, the council

is warning that if changes are made,

the way it supports people

on benefits could come

close to collapse.

Richard Edwards reporting there.

Now, Grimsby also made national

headlines during the week

when it was revealed that figures

in the local seafood industry have

called for the area to be given

special free trade status

when Britain leave

the European Union.

Some say that is ironic,

given that this area voted

so heavily in favour of Brexit.

As Katie Austin now reports.

Seafood processing is a thriving

industry, supporting 5000 jobs

in the Grimsby area.

Many firms buy from

Grimsby's fish market.

Today's offer is mainly cod.

It's come all the way

from Iceland on container,

brought into Immingham and then

brought by road from

Immingham to Grimsby.

Nowadays, seafood processors rely

heavily on fish imported

from non-EU countries,

mainly Iceland as well as the Faroe

Islands and as far afield as China.

When Britain leads the Yukon it

will have to make new trade deals

-- when Britain leaves the Yukon it

will have to make new trade deals --

the European Union it will have to

make new trade deals with those

countries.

One Grimsby Fish organisation

is keen to ensure this doesn't lead

to extra tariffs on fish.

It also wants the government to make

the ports of Immingham

and Grimsby free trade zones,

giving seafood a special boost

by scrapping duties.

We're asking for it.

Why shouldn't we?

We are being very selfish about it

in terms of seafood.

We are looking at ways

in which we can take

advantage of Brexit.

So if we are no longer bound by EU

law and we take back control

of our laws and of our own destiny,

we are hoping that we can take

advantage of free trade

situations that might occur.

One food policy expert is sceptical.

It's become a food and fishing

processing town more

than anything else.

Just to say that we will go

to a free port, I don't think

is going to resolve it.

How?

Who are you going to trade with?

How is it going to be done?

Those who want seafood given special

trade status here at knowledge

-- act knowledge -- realise

the devil is in the detail,

The man who runs the fish market

says other aspects of Brexit must

take priority and we should be

talking free-trade now.

There's no merit in it at all.

We need to work the fish industry

and the first thing that needs

to have and is sorting out

the common fishing policy

and the quotas and the fish catching

and the access to waters.

Businesses here take

pride in being resilient.

But the slow progress

towards future trade agreements

is causing nervousness among

importers and exporters.

Business is very, very difficult.

The uncertainty at the present

moment in time which we have had now

for 14 or 15 months.

We produce fish oil,

90% of which is exported to the EU

and we have got no UK

market for that.

So that is a concern.

Fish industry groups are now

lobbying the UK Government

and the Icelandic government

about what they want trade

to look like after Brexit.

That was Katie Austin reporting.

Of course there is much more

to Grimsby than fish

and to prove the point,

we have come inside now

to the headquarters of law

firm Wilkin Chapman.

Now, this boardroom we are in right

now holds regular business summits.

So we thought this would be a good

place to take the temperature

of the regional economy with just

three days to go

until the Chancellor

delivers his autumn budget.

And we are joined by representatives

from various business

sectors here today.

So let me just ask you,

in a nutshell, what would you lie

to you from the Chancellor

on Wednesday?

Des?

Well, Tim, we have just had

an interest rate rise so anything

that the Chancellor has in mind

to arrest the level

of confidence in the economy.

Secondly, I think countless

chancellors have talked

about the amount of red tape

on businesses, how they are

going to reduce that.

We are not seeing that

come through and I would

like to hear his plans for that.

Sarah, what would you like to hear

from the Chancellor?

I would like to hear more support

for small businesses,

how they can make simpler schemes

that are easier to understand

and also look at the running cost

of businesses and help them not

to increase any of those costs,

particularly taxes.

Andy, what would be

a good budget for you?

In theory, this is the last budget

that we are going to have previous

to the House voting in October 2018

on the Brexit deal.

And what we have seen

in the manufacturing sector

is investment plans have

been falling off.

So we would very much like to see

something from the Chancellor

which is bolstering business

investment and how businesses can

be supported to invest

which will in turn help

with business confidence.

How about you, Paul?

Well, we are a small engineering

business but we support

the manufacturing sector.

So any help for manufacturers

to help and give confidence for them

to invest, that come

through for projects

and development for us.

So we would like to see a very

similar indication from

where this is going.

Many here are hoping the Chancellor

will give a nod to an ambitious

project which could transform

the fortunes of Grimsby's economy.

It has been described

as the town deal.

And it would create potentially

thousands of new jobs

in the area and some would say,

put the great back into Grimsby,

as Sarah Sanderson reports.

Like many post-industrial towns,

Grimsby has seen its fair share

of economic decline.

But times are changing

in north-east Lincolnshire.

The council, along with the private

sector, have come up with a plan

called the Greater Grimsby Town

Deal.

They are hoping to work

with the government to regenerate

the area on a massive scale.

It's not just about

a funding bid at all.

It's about seeking freedoms,

flexibilities, and yes, some funds.

But it's about getting governments

to recognise that we want them

to work with us

because I believe, I've

always believed, that

if you have got the passion,

the vision and the ambition,

funding or resources

will follow that ambition.

The aims of the greater Grimsby

projects over the next ten years

are to grow the local economy

by more than £216 million per year,

create over 5000 jobs and build

around 7700 new homes.

Last month, the Kasbah

here on the Grimsby Port estate

was made into a conservation area.

It will now be protected

from demolition and its conservation

area status will hopefully bring

in funding to help develop buildings

like these while maintaining

their rich heritage.

The idea is to turn local history

into economic success.

And the private sector says

it is in their best interest

to get behind this vision.

Grimsby has a proud maritime history

behind it as a town.

The port of Grimsby has a proud

future ahead of it as well.

Conservation area status

for the Kasbah helps helps ABP to do

what we are hoping to do,

which is to help keep

what is special about the port

of Grimsby was also investing

in real jobs and real

regeneration for the area.

Students in Grimsby are hopeful it

will bring new career

opportunities closer to home.

I don't believe people particularly

wish to travel and commute to work

so to have opportunities almost

on your doorstep is a great

opportunity for the local students.

And a lot of the students

here are local so if they can

graduate here with a degree and then

put that agree to use locally again

-- and then put that degree to use

locally, it is ideal for everyone.

The council says this town deal plan

could even be reproduced elsewhere.

It can be rolled out,

it's just it will have to be applied

for different northern towns.

But government recognises

that this can be a template

that can be rolled out.

Different areas with different

needs, but it is something

that can be applied

as a series of principles.

All they want now is commitment

from the government to help

make Grimsby greater.

Sarah, thank you.

Who knew there was

a kasbah in Grimsby?

Well, I'm joined now

by Danielle and Macauley.

Danielle is a trainee

solicitor and Macauley

was an apprentice sheet metal worker

but he is now fully qualified.

You are both young people

who have found a successful

career path in this area.

What more needs to be done to create

jobs for younger people in this

part of the country?

I think, personally,

there are jobs and opportunities

for young people in the area.

I mean, really it is about young

people knowing where to look

and having the support to know

what jobs are right for them

and where to apply for them.

So it is really taking

an active step yourself

and putting yourself out there.

Macauley, you didn't

go away, did you?

Obviously, you learnt a skill.

Were you under pressure from people

perhaps that's cool,

-- perhaps at school,

careers advisers, to go away

to college, go away to university?

Yeah.

Being a higher grade...

Scoring high grades on my

GCSEs, I was encouraged

to go to university.

Careers advice, when I went

in and told them I wanted

to do an apprenticeship,

they basically told me that wasn't

the right path to go down,

there weren't many apprenticeships

to go for and I had a much safer

route is going to university

and getting a degree and finding

a job from there.

I applied to Allied Protec

for an apprenticeship

and I was taken on straight

out of school.

From there, they trained me,

I have been able to represent the UK

for the World Skills Abu Dhabi 2017.

I have just got back.

What was that, like the World

Cup for apprentices?

Yeah!

They call it the skills Olympics.

This has traditionally been an area

where there have been

quite a few people...

NEETS, they are called,

not in education,

employment or training.

What do you think needs to be

done to address that?

I think there needs to be support

for people who maybe are at school

and have just finished university

so they know that maybe

they have undertaken a degree

or an apprenticeship

and their education is coming

to an end, to find out

what the best route is for them.

For me, I wanted to go

to university and knew

it was the right thing for me,

but I think you need to want to go.

You need to like the course

that you are doing.

So it is is just

having that support.

Both whilst you are studying

and when you have finished, to find

the path that is right for you.

And what would you say

to other young people

in this area who say,

well, if we want to build a career,

and make a success of our lives,

we have to move away from this part

of the world?

That's not the case at all.

I'm quite lucky at Allied Protec,

they have given me every opportunity

to further my skills,

further my studies.

So although I have just

finished my apprenticeship,

they have never stopped me

from going on...

I could still goes university,

I could still get degrees.

But I have a skill,

I have a job, I have trade now.

I'm doing very well, I'm 21.

I have a trade under my belt

and I can now go further

and build my career from here.

They have given me great

building blocks to do that.

It's all down to the person and down

to the personal drive

and whether they want to go out

and want to do it.

Paul, we have heard from your

apprentice Macauley there.

What more needs to be done to create

better jobs for young

people in this area?

The opportunities generally

are coming from the smaller

businesses, medium-size businesses.

What this area lacks

is the real big employers

where they are taking in...

I have recently visited one of the

big manufacturers in the Midlands.

They are taking on 100

people per year.

We have massive skill shortages

in this area and I don't see

the people training the level

the people we need is to

-- I don't see the people training

the level all the people we need to

supply our business.

So is the government, Andy,

doing enough to help organisations

like yours take on apprentices?

We as an organisation have

very few apprentices.

Our members take very significant

numbers of apprentices.

There is a well-documented

national skills shortage.

We do not have enough people coming

through the system for a start.

With the indigenous population.

In terms of what is the government

doing for skills, I think it

starts off at school.

And the jobs that are going to be

around tomorrow don't exist today

so we need to be training young

people going through the school

system to have sex ability skills,

to be able to problem solve.

-- to have flexibility skills, to be

able to problem solve.

Des, we hear this claim quite a lot

from bosses who say that kids

coming out of school,

they might have the qualifications

but they aren't equipped

for the real world.

Is that fair?

Well, we are certainly equipping

them to pass their A-levels

because the A-level results

are going up and up.

So academically or technically,

those sorts of skills are there.

But my business is a law firm.

And one of the key skills we need

is to be able to deal

with the clients and to have

good interpersonal skills.

So I question how much we are doing

to train our young people

in those sorts of skills.

Because a lot of young people don't

find them that natural.

One of the people who is involved

with this huge plan to regenerate

Grimsby and the surrounding area

is the former Chancellor

of the Exchequer, Norman Lamont.

Now, did you know Norman Lamont

spent much of his younger life

right here in Grimsby.

I caught up with him at Westminster.

This is how most people

will remember Norman Le Monde,

as Conservative Chancellor

of the Exchequer during a difficult

time for the British economy.

But many won't know

about his links to Grimsby.

Lord Lamont spent his teenage years

in the town and still describes

himself as a fan of the mighty

Mariners.

I am a fan of the Mariners.

I was an even keener fan

of the Mariners, I used to go

to Blundell Park quite often.

I thought Grimsby was a very warm

place, is very distinct sense

of community and I thoroughly

enjoyed being there.

It was a very, very friendly place.

And of course, it was a lot

more prosperous than.

The fishing industry was still very

strong and feeding the food

industry at the same time.

It wasn't a high employment area

in the way that it is today.

-- it was not a high unemployment

area as it is today.

It didn't have the dereliction

that Grimsby has today.

Sadly, things have changed

for Grimsby, partly because of the

decline in fishing but partly

because of other structural changes.

You have become involved

in proposals for this new town deal.

What prompted you to become

involved with that?

When I was asked by David Ross,

who has thought up this idea

of rejuvenating parts of the town

and getting private money in and

talking to government about it,

he asked me if I would help.

I'm not sure I can

help with anything

other than a modest way, but I'm

happy to do whatever I can because I

hugely enjoyed being in Grimsby and

would like to give something back.

When you hear critics saying

Brexit will be a disaster

for places like Grimsby,

what is your response?

That's nonsense.

Why should it be

a disaster for Grimsby?

Grimsby is a port.

Trade will continue to flow

in both directions.

I don't believe Brexit for one

minute is going to be a disaster.

There are lots of opportunities

and I think ten years' time,

people will even forget

that we were ever members

of the European Union.

Well, that's an interesting

claim, isn't it?

In ten years' time, people will have

forgotten we were ever members

of the European Union.

What you make of that, Andy?

It is a very interesting claim,

but unfortunately, we have got

to deal with the reality

and the year and now.

-- the here and now.

What we have is a situation

that businesses do not

know what is happening.

It is that lack of clarity,

that lack of leadership,

that lack of direction

from the government in terms

of what the deal is going to look

like, will there be a traitor,

were that the regulations

on countries of origin?

-- will there be a treaty, will

there be regulations on countries of

origin.

Supply chains are very,

very complex and often goes

across borders multiple times.

So we need to know, businesses need

to know, what that plan

is going to look like.

Without a plan, they can't

plan for anything.

How do you view the Brexit

process so far, Paul?

Well, we are seeing an immediate

effect because we are seeing our

trade overseas with a weak pound

is benefiting in the short-term

but the long-term,

I don't see the benefits.

But a lot of the manufacturing

businesses we support already

curtailing decisions and not making

decisions where

investment was planned.

We had quite a sizeable

Teesside business, planning

a sizeable extension

to make their factory

their European hub.

Now, that has gone on hold

because they don't know

if they are going to be in Europe

and what the tariffs

and what the export criteria

will be for their products.

So we have seen both sides,

we have seen some positives

but we also seeing big negatives.

What about you, Sarah?

What are businesses saying

to you about Brexit?

It's an unsettling time

but I must say, the businesses

we have been out to see,

it hasn't been a main

topic of conversation.

They are still wanting to grow

and they are looking

at new trade opportunities.

One business we helped to start up

got some funding from the Department

of International Trade and they went

out to Holland and now

they are exporting globally

to Europe and to Africa

and the Americas.

It hasn't been a main topic

of conversation for the businesses

that we have been visiting.

This was a big Brexit supporting

area, have there been changes of

ideas, there have been surveys sane

people would not change their minds

if the vote was on a game, which

surprised me.

But we have had

executive deals in boardrooms

recently whereby people don't know

what to do. More support needs to be

given and leadership by the

government on this to small

businesses and what people should be

doing. So they are getting on with

it, as Churchill said in the Second

World War, when the bombs were

raining down, we will just keep on

going on. And that is what

businesses are doing. Including my

own. So I don't know if I agree with

Mr Lamont or not, but I can see a

situation where we are meant to be

really being in 2019, there may be

an extension and then maybe one

after that. So as the Eagles

famously said in the song Hotel

California, you can check out any

time you like, but you can never

leave.

I thought you were going to

break into song!

I can do, if you

like.

Not quite karaoke time. Three

more sleeps until the autumn bug --

budget.

Philip Hammond will deliver his

Budget on Wednesday -

he's moved it to the Autumn

if you remember - and he'll be

hoping it can help re-define

the Government in the eyes

of the public.

But when it comes to

the economy, do people trust

the Conservatives, or Labour?

Here's Ellie Price

with the moodbox.

MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere

by Talking Heads.

All eyes will be on the Chancellor

this week as we find out

what he has been cooking

up in his Budget.

So we have pulled off the A1

near Peterborough to ask people here

who they trust with the economy -

is it the Chancellor,

Philip Hammond, or is it

Labour's John McDonnell?

No 7.

Which one's Tory?

I voted Conservative

for the last two

elections, don't feel very confident

now, so I'm going to swap.

If I said to you which

of these characters

would you trust with the economy,

what would you say?

The one who's currently

running it, because they

seem to be bringing

the deficit down.

Labour.

Why?

Because I'm an NHS worker.

For me, it's just about

spending, public spending.

Labour always overspend.

John McDonnell, I think

capitalism as we know it is tanked

and I think we need

a radical re-think.

Broken his egg, who do you trust

more on the economy?

No one.

Why?

Because they never come up trumps

with anything that they

reckon they're going to do.

If I had to make you

choose one of them?

The man that's there, Hammond.

I wouldn't trust

Philip Hammond with a

bag of marbles or a plastic ball!

Hello, Bob.

Oh, hello.

Who do you trust

more on the economy?

Oh, the Conservatives.

Do you?

Why's that?

I just think they're better

for the small businessman.

We need a Maggie or

a Winston Churchill,

somebody in there with

balls to say, right,

that's the direction

we are

going in, that's what

we are going to do.

I've got balls!

What are you doing?

Putting balls in holes

by the look of it!

I suppose the lesser of the two

evils is anything but Tory,

but I say that without a great

deal of conviction.

Having grown up in the '70s

with all the rubbish on the

streets, the strikes, the unions.

Re-nationalisation and they're

going to spend a lot of money

and increase taxes and it will pull

the country down.

I've seen an awful loft of all-day

breakfasts today, but it

is clearing up time here

at the diner and time

to reveal the Moodbox.

Take it away, Tim.

As you can say it was

a close-run thing, but

like any fiscally responsible

Chancellor, I've done my maths and

counted and Philip Hammond got six

more votes than John McDonnell.

Oh, chip, thank you very much!

That was Ellie and the entirely

unscientific Moodbox,

at the Stibbington diner near

Peterborough.

But for a slightly more scientific

understanding of how the public view

the parties on this and other

issues, let's have a look

at some recent polling.

Here's where the Conservatives

and Labour stood on the economy back

when the Prime Minister called

the snap election in April,

when the Conservatives had a big

lead, as they did in many

other areas.

The most recent poll by the same

company reckoned Labour had narrowed

the gap significantly,

as they have in other areas,

although they're still 10 points

behind the Tories on this issue.

And there was another survey much

discussed at Westminster this week,

showing that while the gap

between Theresa May

and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed

drastically since that pre-election

period, Mrs May is,

despite her many problems,

still pretty much level-pegging

in polling terms or