20/11/2016 Sunday Politics


20/11/2016

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LineFromTo

Morning folks - welcome to the Sunday Politics.

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Theresa May says she'll deliver on Brexit but does that mean leaving

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the EU's Single Market and the Customs Union?

:00:45.:00:49.

Tory MPs campaign for a commitment from the Prime

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The Chancellor pledges just over a billion pounds worth of spending

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on Britain's roads but is that it or will there be

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Their last leader was just 18 days in the job.

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Now the second UKIP leadership election this year

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So who can restore order to this fractious party?

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in London: Is the battle for Richmond Park based on the skies? Or

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is it about a bigger conflict in Europe?

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And with me - as always - and, no, these three aren't doing

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the Mannequin challenge - it's our dynamic, demonstrative,

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dazzling political panel - Helen Lewis, Isabel Oakeshott

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and Tom Newton Dunn they'll also be tweeting throughout the programme.

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First this morning - Theresa May has said

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"Brexit means Brexit" - but can the Prime Minister -

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who was on the Remain side of argument during the referendum

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Well, Leave-supporting Tory MPs are re-launching

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the "European Research Group" this morning to keep Mrs May's feet

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Are you worried that you cannot trust Theresa May until payment to

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deliver full Brexit was Magellan like I totally trust Theresa May,

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100% behind her. She has displayed a massive amount of commitment to

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making a success of Brexit for the country.

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We don't know that yet, because nothing has happened. Why, then,

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have you formed a pressure group? We were fed up with the negativity

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coming out around Brexit. I feel positive about the opportunities we

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face, and we are a group to provide suggestions. Who do you have in mind

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when you talk about negativity - the Chancellor? No, from the Lib Dems,

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for example, from Labour MPs. This is a pressure group for leaving

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membership of the single market and customs union, correct? That is what

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we are proposing. It has a purpose other than just to combat

:03:18.:03:20.

negativity. When it comes to membership of the single market and

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the customs union, can you tell us what Government policy is towards

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both or either? Rightly, the Government hasn't made the position

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clear, and I think that is the right approach, because we don't want to

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review our negotiating hand. What we're saying... I'm not asking what

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you are saying. Can you tell us what Government policy is towards

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membership of these institutions? The Government wants to make sure

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British businesses have the right to trade with EU partners, to forge new

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trade deals with the rest of the world. We hope to Reza may speak at

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Mansion house this week. -- we had Theresa May speak at Mansion house

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this week. She has been clear, saying it was not a binary choice.

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And she's right. Let's run that tape, because I want to pick up on

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what she did say. This is what she had to say about the customs union

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at Prime Minister's Question Time. On the whole question of the customs

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union, trading relationships that we have with the European Union and

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other parts of the world once we have left the European Union, we are

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preparing carefully for the formal negotiations. We are preparing

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carefully for the formal negotiations. We want to ensure we

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have the best possible trading deal with the EU once we have left. Do

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you know what she means when she says being in the customs union is

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not a binary choice? I think she's right when she says that. At the

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moment, and you know this, as long as we are in the customs union, we

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cannot set our own tariffs or rules, cannot have a free trade agreement

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with the US or China. We need to leave a customs union to do that.

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Binary means either you are in or you are out, self which is it? We

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still want to trade with the EU, and I think we can have a free trade

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agreement with the EU. That is a separate matter, and it has to do

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with the single market. What about the customs union? We need to leave

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the customs union. We do it and properly. That is how to get the

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most out of this opportunity. Summit is a binary choice? The Prime

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Minister is right when she says it's not a binary choice. Both can't be

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right. We can leave the customs union, get their benefits, and have

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a free trade agreement with zero tariffs with the EU. So it is a

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binary choice an either be stale really. Yellow like I am saying the

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Prime Minister is right when she says it is not a binary choice. -- I

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am saying the Prime Minister is right. We need clarity. Youth had

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said -- you have said it is a binary choice. We need to leave the

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constraints of the customs union. It pushes up prices. The EU is not

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securing the right trade deals, and if we want to make the most of it,

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we need to get out there and get some deals going. Do you accept that

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if we remain in the customs union, we cannot do our own free-trade

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deals? Yellow right 100%. That is why we have to leave. -- 100%. Do

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you accept that if we leave the customs union but stay with

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substantial access, I don't say membership, but substantial access

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to the single market, that goods going from this country to the

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single market because we're no longer in the union will be subject

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to complicated rules of origin regulations, which could cost

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business ?13 billion a year? I would like to see a free-trade agreement

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between the UK and the EU. Look at the Canadian deal. I give you that,

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but if we're not in the customs union, things that we bring in on

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our own tariffs once we've left, we can't just export again willy-nilly

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to the EU. They will demand to see rules of origin. Norway has to do

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that at the moment and it is highly complicated expensive. I think if we

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agree a particular arrangement as part of this agreement with the EU,

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we can reach an agreement on that which sets a lower standard, which

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sets a different level of tariffs, which protects some of our

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industries. Let's suppose we have pretty much free trade with the EU

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but we are out of the customs union, and let's suppose that the European

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Union has a 20% tariff on Japanese whisky and we decide to have a 0%

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tariff - what then happens to the whisky that comes into Britain and

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goes on to the EU? The EU will not let that in. That will be part of

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the negotiation. I think there is a huge benefit for external operators.

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Every bottle of Japanese whisky, they will have to work out the rules

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of origin. There have been studies that show there is a potential for

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50% increase in global product if we leave. We're losing the benefits of

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free trade. I understand, I am asking for your particular view.

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Thank you for that. Is it not surprising Mr Hannan could

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not bring himself to say we would leave the customs union? It is

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messy. The reason there is this new group of Tory MPs signing up to a

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campaign to make sure we get a genuine Brexit is because there is

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this vacuum. It is being filled with all sorts of briefing from the other

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side. There is a real risk in the minds of Brexit supporting MPs that

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the remaining side are going to try to hijack the process, not only

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through the Supreme Court action, which I think most Brexit MPs seem

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to accept the appeal will fail, but further down the line, through

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amendments to the great repeal bill. This is a pressure group to try to

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hold the Prime Minister to account. There is plenty of pressure on the

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Prime Minister effectively to stay in the single market and the customs

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union, and if you do both of these things, de facto, you have stayed in

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the EU. She is in a difficult position because there is no good

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faith assumption about what Theresa May wants because she was a

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Remainer. There is all this talk about a transitional arrangement,

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but she can't sell that as someone who voted to remain. The way Isabel

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has characterised it is interesting. There is a betrayal narrative.

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Everyone is looking to say that she has betrayed the true Brexit. Since

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the Government cannot give a clear indication of what it once in terms

:10:26.:10:31.

of the customs union, which sets external tariffs, or the single

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market, which is the free movement of people, capital, goods and

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services, others are filling this vacuum. Right. The reasons they

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can't do this are, first, they don't know if they can get it or not. We

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saw this with the renegotiation the last Prime Minister. What are they

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hoping to get? The world on a stick, to get cake and eat it. You go into

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a negotiation saying, let's see what we can get in total. Are they going

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to ask the membership of the single market? Yellow I think they will ask

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for a free trade agreement involving everything. You can demand what you

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want. The question is, do they stand a cat's chance in hell of getting

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it? They don't know. Welcome back. We will be back, believe me. It is

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150 day since we found out the UK had voted to leave the EU, but as we

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have heard, remain and leave campaigners continue to battle about

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what type of relationship we should have with the EU after exit.

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Leave campaigners say that leaving the EU

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also means quitting the

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Single Market, the internal European trading bloc that includes free

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movement of goods, services, capital and people.

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They point to evidence that leading Leave supporting

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politicians ruled out staying in the Single Market during

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Andrea Leadsom, for example, said it would almost

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certainly be the case that the UK would come out of the Single Market.

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When asked for a yes or no on whether the UK should stay

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"No, we should be outside the Single Market."

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And Boris Johnson agreed with his erstwhile ally, saying, "Michael

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Gove was absolutely right to say the UK

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They've released a video of clips of Leave campaigners speaking before

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the referendum apparently saying that the UK should stay in the

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Nigel Farage, for example, once said that on leaving

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the EU we'll find ourselves part of the European economic area

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Owen Paterson, the former Environment Secretary,

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once made the startling statement that only a madman would actually

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And Matthew Elliott, the Vote Leave chief, said

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that the Norwegian option would be initially attractive for some

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But do these quotes create an accurate picture of what

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To cast some light on where these quotes came from we're

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joined by James McGrory, director of Open Britain

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. . Your video has statements from leave

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campaigners hinting they want to stay in the single market. How many

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were made during the referendum campaign? I don't know. Not one was

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made during the referendum campaign. Indeed, only two of the 12

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statements were recorded after Royal assent had been given to the

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referendum. Only one was made this year before the referendum.

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Throughout the campaign am a leave campaigners lauded the Norwegian

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model. Norway are in the single market but not in the EU. They went

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out of their way not to be pinned down on a specific trading

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arrangement they want to see in the future with Europe, when the

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Treasury model the different models it was the EEA or a free-trade

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agreement. I understand. Does it not undermine your case that none of the

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12 statements on your video were made during the campaign itself,

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when people were giving really serious thought to such matters? The

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Leave campaign weren't giving serious thought to such matters.

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They did not set out the future trading model they wanted to see.

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But you cannot produce a single video with somebody saying we should

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stay in the single market during the campaign. Daniel Hanna had talked

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about the Norwegian model as a future option. One comment from

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Nigel Farage dates back to 2009, when we didn't even know if we would

:14:57.:15:00.

have a referendum or not. Does it not stretch credibility to go back

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to the time when Gordon Brown was Prime Minister? The overall point

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stands. It is not supposed to be an exhaustive list of the options.

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Daniel Hannan, described as the intellectual godfather of the Leave

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movement is saying that no one is talking about threatening our place

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in the signal market. I think it's legitimate to point out the Leave

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campaign never came forward with a credible argument. We have

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highlighted some of the quotes you picked out from leave campaigners

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over time. Do you think you have fully encapsulated their arguments

:15:34.:15:40.

accurately? I don't think in a 92nd video you can talk about the full

:15:41.:15:46.

thing. -- a 90-2nd video. Some of them want to seek a free-trade

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agreement, some to default on to World Trade Organisation tariffs.

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There is a range of opinion in the Leave campaign. Let's listen to the

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clip you used on Owen Paterson first.

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Only a madman would actually leave the market.

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Only a madman would actually leave the market.

:16:09.:16:13.

It's not the EU which is

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a political organisation delivering the prosperity and buying our goods.

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It's the market, it's the members of the market and we'll carry on

:16:18.:16:21.

I mean, are we really suggesting that the

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economy in the world is not going to come to come

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to a satisfactory trading arrangement with the EU?

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Are we going to be like Sudan and North

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It is ludicrous this idea that we are going to leap off a

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What he said when he said only a madman would leave Europe, was that

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we would continue to trade, we would continue to have access. Any country

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in the world can have access. What the Leave campaign suggested is our

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trade would continue uninterrupted, they are still at it today, David

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Davis used the phrase, uninterrupted, from the dispatch box

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recently. You misrepresented him by saying only a madman would leave the

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Single Market and stopped it there, because he goes onto say that of

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course we want Leave in the sense of continuing to have access. I don't

:17:12.:17:12.

think he was about axis, he is talking

:17:13.:17:31.

about membership. He doesn't use the word membership at all. He talks

:17:32.:17:34.

about we are going to carry on trading with them, we will not leap

:17:35.:17:36.

off, we will carry on trading. Anybody can trade with the EU, it's

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the terms on which you trade that is important and leave campaigners and

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Patterson is an example of this, saying we can trade as we do now,

:17:42.:17:44.

the government saying we can trade without bureaucratic impediments and

:17:45.:17:46.

tariff free. The viewers will make up their mind. Let's listen to the

:17:47.:17:49.

views of Matthew Elliott, the Chief Executive of Vote Leave.

:17:50.:17:50.

When it comes to the Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that

:17:51.:17:53.

it might be initially attractive for some business people.

:17:54.:17:55.

So you then cut him off there but this is what he went on to say in

:17:56.:17:59.

the same clip, let's listen to that. When it comes to the Norwegian

:18:00.:18:03.

option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initially attractive

:18:04.:18:06.

for some business people. But then again for voters

:18:07.:18:08.

who are increasingly concerned about migration in the EU,

:18:09.:18:11.

they will be very concerned that it allows free movement

:18:12.:18:14.

of people to continue. Again, you have misrepresented him.

:18:15.:18:26.

He said the Norwegian model has attractions but there are real

:18:27.:18:29.

problems if it involves free movement of people, which it does.

:18:30.:18:33.

But you cut that bit out. I challenge anyone to represent them

:18:34.:18:37.

accurately because they took such a range of opinions. I don't know what

:18:38.:18:40.

we are supposed to do. You are misrepresenting them. He is saying

:18:41.:18:44.

the Norwegian option is attractive to business, I understand why. It

:18:45.:18:48.

might not be attractive for voters. But then he said if it allowed free

:18:49.:18:55.

movement of people it could be an issue. You took that out. You are

:18:56.:19:00.

saying this is a definitive position. I'm suggesting you are

:19:01.:19:02.

distorting it. This is what you had Mr Farage say.

:19:03.:19:05.

On D+1 we'll find ourselves part of the European economic area

:19:06.:19:07.

This is what he then went on to say in that same clip that you didn't

:19:08.:19:15.

run. There is absolutely

:19:16.:19:16.

nothing to fear in terms of trade from leaving

:19:17.:19:18.

the on D+1 we'll find ourselves part

:19:19.:19:19.

of the European Economic Area and we should use our

:19:20.:19:23.

membership of the EEA as a holding position from which

:19:24.:19:32.

we can negotiate as the European Union's biggest export

:19:33.:19:36.

market in the world, as good a deal, my goodness me,

:19:37.:19:38.

if Switzerland can have one we So there again, he says not that we

:19:39.:19:48.

should stay in the Single Market as a member, but that we stay in the EA

:19:49.:19:53.

as a transition until we negotiate something. -- EEA. This whole clip

:19:54.:20:03.

is online, how would you get away with this distortion? It is not a

:20:04.:20:07.

distortion, the whole point is to point out they do not have a

:20:08.:20:10.

definitive position, he is arguing for membership of the Single Market,

:20:11.:20:13.

for a transitional period. For the transition. How long does that go

:20:14.:20:18.

on, what does he want to then achieve? Not very quickly but he

:20:19.:20:21.

does not say we should stay members of the Single Market and you didn't

:20:22.:20:25.

let people see what he went on to say, you gave the impression he

:20:26.:20:28.

wanted to stay in the one it. It would not be a video then, it would

:20:29.:20:32.

be a seven-week long lecture. They took so many positions, and the idea

:20:33.:20:36.

now that they were clear with people that we should definitely leave the

:20:37.:20:39.

Single Market I think is fictitious. You are trying to make out they all

:20:40.:20:43.

had one position which was to remain members of the one it. You see the

:20:44.:20:48.

full clips that is not what they are saying. We are trying to point out

:20:49.:20:52.

there is no mandate to leave the Single Market. The idea the Leave

:20:53.:20:55.

campaign spoke with unanimity and clarity of purpose and throughout

:20:56.:20:59.

the whole campaign said we will definitely leave the Single Market

:21:00.:21:03.

is not true. That is the whole point of the media. We showed in the

:21:04.:21:07.

montage in the video just before we came on, we said that then Prime

:21:08.:21:11.

Minister, the then Chancellor, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, being

:21:12.:21:14.

categorical that if you vote to leave the EU, you vote to leave

:21:15.:21:17.

membership of the Single Market. What bit of that didn't you

:21:18.:21:21.

understand? Under duress they occasionally said they wanted to

:21:22.:21:24.

leave. Some of them wanted to leave the Single Market. All of the other

:21:25.:21:30.

promises they made, whether ?350 million for the NHS, whether a VAT

:21:31.:21:35.

cut on fuel, points-based system. You do not have a single quote of

:21:36.:21:38.

any of these members saying they want to be a member. Daniel Hannan

:21:39.:21:42.

has said consistently that Norway are a part of the Single Market. You

:21:43.:21:47.

spend the referendum campaign criticising for Rim misrepresenting

:21:48.:21:49.

and misrepresenting and lying and many thought they did. Having seen

:21:50.:21:52.

this many will conclude that you are the biggest liars. I think it is

:21:53.:21:56.

perfectly reasonable to point out that the Leave campaign did not have

:21:57.:21:59.

a clear position on our future trading relationship with Europe.

:22:00.:22:03.

That is all this video does. It doesn't say we definitely have to

:22:04.:22:06.

stay in the Single Market, it just says they do have a mandate to drag

:22:07.:22:11.

us out of our biggest trading partner.

:22:12.:22:13.

Now people have seen the full quotes in context our viewers will make up

:22:14.:22:15.

their mind. Thank you. Now - voting closes next week

:22:16.:22:17.

in the the Ukip leadership contest. The second Ukip leadership contest

:22:18.:22:20.

this year after the party's first female leader - Diane James -

:22:21.:22:22.

stood down from the role Since then the party's lurched from

:22:23.:22:25.

farce to fiasco. It's a world gripped by uncertainty,

:22:26.:22:28.

split into factions. Yes, 2, because they're

:22:29.:22:44.

having their second Watch as the alpha male,

:22:45.:22:54.

the Ukip leader at Nigel Watch as the alpha male,

:22:55.:23:01.

the Ukip leader Nigel Farage, hands power to the new alpha

:23:02.:23:03.

female Diane James. The European Parliament

:23:04.:23:06.

in Strasbourg, October. Another leading light and possible

:23:07.:23:20.

future leader, the MEP Steven Wolfe,

:23:21.:23:23.

has been laid low after an alleged tussle with a colleague

:23:24.:23:25.

during a meeting. A few days later he is

:23:26.:23:28.

out of hospital and I will be withdrawing my

:23:29.:23:30.

application to become I'm actually withdrawing

:23:31.:23:34.

myself from Ukip. You're resigning from the party?

:23:35.:23:37.

I'm resigning with immediate effect. And this week a leaked document

:23:38.:23:43.

suggested the party improperly spent EU funds on political

:23:44.:23:47.

campaigning in the UK. Another headache for whoever takes

:23:48.:23:52.

over the leadership of the pack. One contender is Suzanne Evans,

:23:53.:23:58.

a former Tory councillor and was briefly suspended for

:23:59.:24:01.

disloyalty. Also standing, Paul Nuttall,

:24:02.:24:10.

an MEP from Liverpool who has been by Farage's side

:24:11.:24:13.

as his deputy for six years. There's another big beast

:24:14.:24:19.

in the Ukip leadership contest, and I'm told

:24:20.:24:21.

that today he can be spotted He's John Rees-Evans,

:24:22.:24:24.

a businessman and adventurer who is offering members the chance

:24:25.:24:29.

to propose policies via a website We've got really dedicated

:24:30.:24:32.

passionate supporters who feel like they're not really

:24:33.:24:46.

being listened to and are not even Typically what happens

:24:47.:24:49.

is they just basically sit there until six months before

:24:50.:24:52.

a General Election when they are contacted and asked to go out

:24:53.:24:54.

and leaflet and canvas. Even at branch level people feel

:24:55.:24:57.

there is not an adequate flow of communication

:24:58.:24:59.

up-and-down the party. Are you not going to take part in

:25:00.:25:01.

any hustings? He left a hustings saying

:25:02.:25:10.

the contest was an establishment coronation and has

:25:11.:25:13.

made colourful comments in the past. He's in favour of the death penalty

:25:14.:25:16.

for crimes like paedophilia. I think there is a clear

:25:17.:25:18.

will amongst the offences should be dealt with

:25:19.:25:20.

decisively. But again, on an issue like that,

:25:21.:25:24.

that is something that Our members are not

:25:25.:25:27.

going to agree with me on everything and I don't believe that

:25:28.:25:32.

I would have any authority to have the say and determine

:25:33.:25:35.

the future What method would you use

:25:36.:25:37.

for the death penalty? Again, that is something that could

:25:38.:25:40.

be determined by suggestions made So you'd have like an online

:25:41.:25:42.

poll about whether you use the electric chair,

:25:43.:25:47.

or lethal injection? For example, arguments would be made

:25:48.:25:53.

in favour of This is such a small aspect

:25:54.:25:55.

of what I'm standing for. Essentially, in mainstream media

:25:56.:25:59.

they try to by focusing on pretty irrelevant

:26:00.:26:01.

details. This is one vote that

:26:02.:26:07.

the membership would have. What I'm actually trying to do

:26:08.:26:09.

in this party is to revolutionise the democratic

:26:10.:26:13.

process in the UK, and that's really what your viewers should

:26:14.:26:16.

be concentrating on. With him at the helm he reckons Ukip

:26:17.:26:20.

would win at Meanwhile, in New York,

:26:21.:26:22.

on a visit to Trump Tower, Nigel Farage admired the plumage

:26:23.:26:30.

of the President-elect, a man he has described as

:26:31.:26:39.

a silverback gorilla, a friendship that's been condemned by some

:26:40.:26:41.

in this leadership contest. There are also elections

:26:42.:26:44.

to the party's National Executive Committee, a body

:26:45.:26:46.

that's been roundly criticised by And we're joined now by two

:26:47.:26:49.

of the candidates in the Ukip leadership election -

:26:50.:27:04.

Suzanne Evans and Paul Nuttall. We are going to kick off by giving

:27:05.:27:14.

each of them 30 seconds to lay out their case as to why they would be

:27:15.:27:17.

the less leader starting with Suzanne Evans.

:27:18.:27:20.

Ukip is at its best when it is scaring the political establishment,

:27:21.:27:23.

forcing it to address those problems it would rather ignore. But it

:27:24.:27:27.

really change people's lives for the better and fast, we need to win

:27:28.:27:31.

seats and elections right across the country. To win at the ballot box we

:27:32.:27:35.

need to attract more women, more ethnic

:27:36.:27:55.

minorities, and more of those Labour voters who no longer recognise their

:27:56.:27:57.

party. I know how to do that. Ukip under my

:27:58.:28:00.

leadership will be the same page about it, common-sense, radical

:28:01.:28:03.

party it has always been, just even more successful. Thank you, Suzanne

:28:04.:28:04.

Evans, Paul Nuttall. I'm standing on a platform of unity and experience.

:28:05.:28:07.

I believe the party must come together if it is to survive and

:28:08.:28:10.

prosper. I believe I'm the best candidate to ensure that happens, I

:28:11.:28:12.

am not part of any faction in the party, and beyond that I have done

:28:13.:28:15.

every single job within the party, whether that is as head of policy,

:28:16.:28:17.

whether that is Party Chairman, deputy leader for Nigel for the past

:28:18.:28:20.

six years. I believe Ukip has great opportunities in Labour

:28:21.:28:22.

constituencies where we can move in and become the Patriot invoice of

:28:23.:28:26.

working people, and beyond that we have to ensure the government's feet

:28:27.:28:29.

are held to the fire on Brexit and we get real Brexit, not a

:28:30.:28:36.

mealy-mouthed version. How will you get a grip on this? People have to

:28:37.:28:40.

realise that the cause is bigger than any personality, we have to get

:28:41.:28:44.

together in a room and sort out not just a spokespeople role but roles

:28:45.:28:47.

within the organisation, Party Chairman, party secretary, and

:28:48.:28:52.

whatnot. But as I say, Ukip must unite, we are on 13% in the opinion

:28:53.:28:56.

polls, the future is bright, there are open goals but Ukip must be on

:28:57.:29:01.

the pitch to score them. He says he's the only one that can get a

:29:02.:29:04.

grip on this party. I disagree, I have a huge amount of experience in

:29:05.:29:08.

the party as well and also a background that I think means I can

:29:09.:29:11.

help bring people together. I have always said nothing breeds unity

:29:12.:29:21.

faster than success and under my leadership we will be successful.

:29:22.:29:24.

There is concern about the future of our National Executive Committee

:29:25.:29:26.

going forward. Mr Farage called it the lowest grade of people I have

:29:27.:29:29.

ever met, do you agree? I think he must have been having a bad day, I

:29:30.:29:32.

think we need to make it more accountable to the membership, more

:29:33.:29:35.

open, more democratic. What would you do with the National Executive

:29:36.:29:40.

Committee? I have been calling for the National Executive Committee to

:29:41.:29:43.

be elected reasonably since 2010 giving the members better

:29:44.:29:46.

communication lines and make it far more transparent. Would you have a

:29:47.:29:50.

clear out of the office? I wouldn't, I think the chairman of the party,

:29:51.:29:55.

Paul Upton, the interim chairman, is doing a good job and the only person

:29:56.:29:59.

who has come out of the summer with his reputation enhanced. Let me show

:30:00.:30:02.

you a picture we have all seen of your current leader, Mr Farage, with

:30:03.:30:09.

President-elect Donald Trump. Paul Nuttall, you criticise Mr Farage's

:30:10.:30:12.

decision to appear at rallies during the American election and called Mr

:30:13.:30:17.

Trump appalling. Do you stick by that? I wouldn't have voted for him.

:30:18.:30:22.

I made it clear. Do you still think he's appalling now that he is

:30:23.:30:25.

President-elect? Some of the things he said were appalling during the

:30:26.:30:31.

campaign that he said. But he would be good for Britain, trade,

:30:32.:30:34.

pro-Brexit and he is an Anglo file and the first thing he did was put

:30:35.:30:37.

the bust of Winston Churchill back in the Oval Office. You, Suzanne

:30:38.:30:43.

Evans, called Mr Trump one of the weakest candidates the US has had. I

:30:44.:30:47.

said the same about Hillary Clinton. They cannot both be the weakest. The

:30:48.:30:51.

better candidate on either side would have beaten the other, that is

:30:52.:30:55.

quite clear. Do you stand by that, or are you glad that your leader Mr

:30:56.:31:00.

Farage has strong ties to him? I am, why wouldn't I be? For Ukip to have

:31:01.:31:05.

that direct connection, it can be only good for a party. Were you not

:31:06.:31:09.

out of step and Mr Farage is in step because it looks like your vote is

:31:10.:31:12.

according to polling I have seemed like Mr Trump and his policies? Let

:31:13.:31:18.

me finish. If I am the leader of Ukip I will not be involving myself

:31:19.:31:21.

in foreign elections, I will because in trading here in this country

:31:22.:31:25.

ensuring we get Ukip people elected to council chambers and get seats in

:31:26.:31:27.

2020. The other thing your leader has in

:31:28.:31:37.

common with Mr Trump is that he rather admires Vladimir Putin. Do

:31:38.:31:43.

you? I don't. If you look at Putin's record, he has invaded Ukraine and

:31:44.:31:50.

Georgia. I am absolutely not a fan. I think that Vladimir Putin is

:31:51.:31:54.

pretty much a nasty man, but beyond that, I believe that in the Middle

:31:55.:31:59.

East, he is generally getting it right in many areas. We need to

:32:00.:32:06.

bring the conflict... Bombing civilians? We need to bring the

:32:07.:32:10.

conflict to an end as fast as possible. The British and American

:32:11.:32:14.

line before Donald Trump is to support rebels, including one is

:32:15.:32:21.

affiliated to Al-Qaeda, to the Taliban. We need to clear these

:32:22.:32:25.

people out and ensure that Syria becomes stable. This controversial

:32:26.:32:33.

breaking point poster from during the referendum campaign. Mr Farage

:32:34.:32:36.

unveiled it, there he is standing in front of it. You can bend it - do

:32:37.:32:41.

you still? Yes, I think it was the wrong poster at the wrong time. I

:32:42.:32:46.

was involved with the vote Leave campaign as well as Ukip's campaign,

:32:47.:32:50.

and I felt strongly that those concerned about immigration were

:32:51.:32:53.

already going to vote to leave because it was a fundamental truth

:32:54.:32:57.

that unless we left the European Union we couldn't control

:32:58.:32:59.

immigration. I thought it was about approaching those soft wavering

:33:00.:33:08.

voters who weren't sure. I don't think I said it was racist, but it

:33:09.:33:12.

was about sovereignty and trade and so forth. That was where we needed

:33:13.:33:16.

to go. I was concerned it might put off some of those wavering voters.

:33:17.:33:21.

People may well say, it was part of the winning campaign. It was Ukip

:33:22.:33:27.

shock and all, which is what you stand for and what makes you

:33:28.:33:34.

different. I said I would know how that I said I would not have gone

:33:35.:33:37.

for that person and I thought it was wrong to do it just a week out from

:33:38.:33:40.

the referendum. However, I believe it released legitimate concerns,

:33:41.:33:47.

with a deluge of people making their way from the Middle East and Africa

:33:48.:33:55.

into the European continent. Where is the low hanging fruit for you,

:33:56.:33:58.

particularly in England? Is it Labour or Conservative voters? I

:33:59.:34:03.

want to hang onto the Conservative voters we have got but I think the

:34:04.:34:09.

low hanging fruit is Labour. Jeremy Corbyn won't sing the national

:34:10.:34:13.

anthem, Emily Thornbury despises the English flag. Diane Abbott thinks

:34:14.:34:17.

anyone talking about immigration is racist. Not to mention John

:34:18.:34:21.

McDonnell's feelings about the IRA. Labour has ceased to be a party for

:34:22.:34:25.

working people and I think Ukip is absolutely going to be that party.

:34:26.:34:30.

It is clear, I absolutely concur with everything Suzanne has said. I

:34:31.:34:36.

first voiced this back in 2008 that I believe Ukip has a fantastic

:34:37.:34:40.

opportunity in working-class communities, and everyone laughed at

:34:41.:34:43.

me. It is clear now that we resonate with working people, and you have

:34:44.:34:46.

seen that in the Brexit result. Would you bring back the death

:34:47.:34:53.

penalty? It wouldn't be Ukip policy. Absolutely not. Would you give more

:34:54.:34:57.

money to the NHS and how would your fanatic? You like it is important to

:34:58.:35:01.

fund it adequately, and it hasn't been to date. We promised in our

:35:02.:35:11.

manifesto that we would give more money. Where does the money come

:35:12.:35:15.

from? It is about tackling health tourism. I think the NHS is being

:35:16.:35:20.

taken for a ride at the moment. That may be right, but where does the

:35:21.:35:26.

money come from? It is about scaling back management in the NHS, because

:35:27.:35:29.

that has burgeoned beyond control. They are spending far more money on

:35:30.:35:34.

management. Where would you save money? We need to look at HS two,

:35:35.:35:39.

foreign aid. Now we have Brexit and we will be saving on the membership

:35:40.:35:44.

fee. We need to cut back on management, as Suzanne says. It

:35:45.:35:47.

cannot be right that 51% of people who work for the NHS in England are

:35:48.:35:54.

not clinically qualified. The NHS needs money now - where would you

:35:55.:36:00.

get it? From HS two. That is capital spending spread over a long period.

:36:01.:36:06.

Where will you get the money now? OK, another one. We spent ?25

:36:07.:36:10.

million every day on foreign aid to countries who sometimes are richer

:36:11.:36:15.

than ourselves. Through the Barnett formula. You would take money away

:36:16.:36:19.

from Scotland? Yes, I think they get far too much. PG tips or Earl Grey?

:36:20.:36:35.

Colegrave. PG tips. Strictly come dancing or X Factor? Neither.

:36:36.:36:43.

Strictly. I would love to be on it one day. There you go. Thank you

:36:44.:36:48.

It's just gone 11:35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:36:49.:36:52.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:36:53.:36:55.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

:36:56.:59:57.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, never happened and will not happen

:59:58.:00:00.

in four years. It is subject we should spend more time on. Back to

:00:01.:00:01.

you. What will the Chancellor have to say

:00:02.:00:10.

in his first big economic statement? What impact will the forecasters say

:00:11.:00:14.

Brexit will have on the economy? And who will face the Front

:00:15.:00:17.

National's Marine Le Pen in Well, the Shadow Chancellor

:00:18.:00:20.

and the Chancellor have both been touring the television

:00:21.:00:34.

studios this morning. Let's be clear, a lot of this

:00:35.:00:36.

is going to be gimmicks and press As I've said, in the

:00:37.:00:42.

pipeline, we've only seen one in five delivered

:00:43.:00:46.

to construction, that's all. So a lot of this will be a repeat

:00:47.:00:49.

of what I'm not going to reveal

:00:50.:00:51.

what I'm going to say on We don't have unlimited

:00:52.:00:55.

capacity, as one might imagine from listening

:00:56.:01:00.

to John McDonnell, to borrow hundreds of billions of pounds more

:01:01.:01:03.

for discretionary spending. That simply doesn't

:01:04.:01:07.

exist if we're going to retain this country's hard-won

:01:08.:01:11.

credibility in the financial markets if we are going to remain

:01:12.:01:13.

an attractive place for business to We didn't learn very much, Helen,

:01:14.:01:30.

but the papers were briefed this morning that there will be another

:01:31.:01:33.

?1.3 billion for roads and things like that. ?1.3 billion is 0.08% of

:01:34.:01:45.

our GDP. Not exactly an infrastructure investment programme,

:01:46.:01:48.

is it? Yellow like I have to say, it was not thrilling to read the

:01:49.:01:57.

details. -- I have to say... It is the first big financial statement

:01:58.:02:00.

that is going to come and I think there will be a big row about the

:02:01.:02:04.

OBE are forecast because they cannot set out a range, they have to commit

:02:05.:02:09.

to one forecast. Everything they do is incredibly political. DOB are is

:02:10.:02:18.

on a hiding to nothing. -- DOB are -- the Office for Budget

:02:19.:02:26.

Responsibility. I don't know how they will square the circle. It is

:02:27.:02:30.

an interesting week. It is all about the economy and public finances and

:02:31.:02:33.

we don't have to talk about Brexit until next Sunday, but no, I have a

:02:34.:02:38.

terrible feeling that by the end of Wednesday afternoon we will be

:02:39.:02:48.

screaming and shouting about how Brexit is going to be for the

:02:49.:02:51.

economy. Just imagine the Treasury comes out with his forecast that it

:02:52.:02:55.

is going to collapse growth and collapsed Treasury takings, people

:02:56.:03:04.

will be apoplectic. Until now, the economy has continued to grow

:03:05.:03:10.

strongly. Pretty well. They cannot say, we have noticed it slowing down

:03:11.:03:13.

and that will continue. They have to take a punt if they think it will

:03:14.:03:17.

slow down. It affects the Chancellor's figures, because the

:03:18.:03:21.

more they say it is slowing down, and I have seen that it will go from

:03:22.:03:27.

2% down to 1.4%, the more the Chancellor's deficit rises even

:03:28.:03:30.

without any more tax cuts and spending. Absolutely. I think Tom is

:03:31.:03:35.

right. What we will see this week is a continuation of the debate we have

:03:36.:03:40.

been having all along. If the Office for Budget Responsibility has

:03:41.:03:43.

negative and gloomy predictions, there will be howls of agony, and

:03:44.:03:53.

rightly howls of frustration from Brexiteers who will say that all the

:03:54.:03:55.

dire predictions from before the referendum have not come to pass and

:03:56.:04:00.

now you are talking things down in a way that becomes a self-fulfilling

:04:01.:04:06.

prophecy. The money for roads, you were dismissive about it, but every

:04:07.:04:13.

little helps. I don't dismiss it, I say it doesn't amount to a fiscal

:04:14.:04:17.

stimulus in macro economic terms. I'm sure if you are on that road, it

:04:18.:04:26.

will be useful. They are going to build a super highway between Oxford

:04:27.:04:33.

and Cambridge. I would like to see them go out to Japan and learn how

:04:34.:04:40.

to fill a hole in two days. I would suggest the road from Oxford to

:04:41.:04:44.

Cambridge is not for the just managing classes, even though it

:04:45.:04:47.

goes through Milton Keynes, and that simply freezing due freezing fuel

:04:48.:04:59.

duty isn't going to hack it, either. These just about managing people are

:05:00.:05:04.

potentially quite a big band. With income tax rises, it means anything

:05:05.:05:07.

you do to help them is incredibly expensive. The universal credit

:05:08.:05:10.

freeze is an interesting example of that. Philip Hammond sounded

:05:11.:05:17.

ambivalent about it after pre-briefings that it might not, the

:05:18.:05:25.

cuts might not go ahead. There are people who are in work but because

:05:26.:05:28.

they are low paid don't have the number of hours, they require

:05:29.:05:34.

welfare benefits to top up their pay, and these welfare benefits, as

:05:35.:05:39.

it stands, are frozen until 2020, and yet inflation is now starting to

:05:40.:05:43.

rise. That's a problem for the just managing people. Correct. It is

:05:44.:05:49.

worse than that, because we are talking about April 2017 when tax

:05:50.:05:57.

credits become universal credits, so the squeeze will be greater. We will

:05:58.:06:03.

get a small highway between a couple of university towns, but if he has

:06:04.:06:07.

any money left to spend at all, it will be on some pretty seismic

:06:08.:06:14.

jazzman for the just about managing people. I am so glad we're not

:06:15.:06:20.

calling them Jams on this programme, because it is a patronising tone.

:06:21.:06:26.

What the Chancellor and Shadow Chancellor did not confront is that

:06:27.:06:35.

Mr Trump's election is a watershed in terms of being able to borrow

:06:36.:06:38.

cheaply. The Federal Reserve is about to start raising rates. The

:06:39.:06:42.

days of cheap borrowing for governments could be coming to an

:06:43.:06:47.

end. You can feel a bit sorry for labour here because after having had

:06:48.:06:51.

six years of being told that we need a surplus and these things are

:06:52.:06:54.

important, we can't deny the deficit, we have switched now and

:06:55.:06:58.

the first thing that Philip Hammond did was to scrap George Osborne's

:06:59.:07:05.

borrowing targets. He has given himself more wriggle room than

:07:06.:07:08.

George Osborne had. He has and it will cost them more. Debt servicing

:07:09.:07:16.

will now rise as a cost. Where is the next political earthquake going

:07:17.:07:17.

to happen? It could be Italy, or the French

:07:18.:07:24.

elections coming up next spring. Now, who will face the Front

:07:25.:07:30.

National's Marine Le Pen in next year's French Presidential

:07:31.:07:33.

elections? Well, France's centre-right

:07:34.:07:34.

part, Les Republicans, are selecting their candidate

:07:35.:07:36.

in the first round of Well, France's centre-right

:07:37.:07:38.

part, Les Republicans, are selecting their candidate

:07:39.:07:40.

in the first round of Let's speak to our correspondent

:07:41.:07:44.

in Paris, Hugh Schofield. Welcome to the programme. Three main

:07:45.:07:57.

candidates, the former -- two former prime ministers and Nicolas Sarkozy,

:07:58.:08:02.

the former president. It is not clear who the front runner is.

:08:03.:08:07.

Robbins it is quite an exciting race, because four weeks it did look

:08:08.:08:17.

as if it was going to be Juppe. It is a two round race. Two go through

:08:18.:08:25.

and the idea is that they rally all the support together. It looked like

:08:26.:08:29.

the first round would be dominated by Juppe and Nicolas Sarkozy, and

:08:30.:08:33.

there was a clear binary combination there, because Sarkozy was looking

:08:34.:08:41.

for squeamish far right voters. In other words, veering clearly to the

:08:42.:08:44.

right and far right on immigration and identity issues. And Juppe is

:08:45.:08:51.

the opposite, saying we had to appeal to the centre. That was what

:08:52.:08:56.

it looked like. But the third candidate has made this really quite

:08:57.:09:00.

staggering surge in the last few days. There was a debate on Thursday

:09:01.:09:05.

and he was deemed to have won it on television. He is coming up

:09:06.:09:10.

strongly, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him go through,

:09:11.:09:13.

which would be interesting from a British perspective, because if the

:09:14.:09:19.

becomes president, he will be the first president with a British wife.

:09:20.:09:23.

His wife Penelope is Welsh. We will have to leave it there. I

:09:24.:09:30.

would suggest that the reason it is fascinating is that whoever wins

:09:31.:09:33.

this primary for the centre-right party is likely to be the next

:09:34.:09:38.

president, and who the next president is will be very important

:09:39.:09:42.

for Britain in these Brexit negotiations. Nothing will really

:09:43.:09:46.

happen until it is determined. Then after the German elections in

:09:47.:09:51.

October. I would add one more constituent part. The most important

:09:52.:09:56.

thing about the race is who can stop Marine Le Pen. Marine Le Pen will

:09:57.:10:03.

almost be one of the ones in the run-off. The Socialists don't expect

:10:04.:10:12.

much. Francois Hollande is done. There is too much of a cliff to

:10:13.:10:19.

climb. Which one of these three centre-right candidates can stop

:10:20.:10:24.

Marine Le Pen? We have had Brexit and Trump, but we could also have

:10:25.:10:28.

Marine Le Pen. If it is Sarkozy, it is the battle of the right. In some

:10:29.:10:36.

areas, he has moved to the right of marine Le Pen. I suppose he feels he

:10:37.:10:43.

has do in order to take the wind out of our sails. You wonder if she

:10:44.:10:46.

could succeed later on if she does not this time. Talking to French

:10:47.:10:50.

analysts last night, there was suggesting that she could not do it

:10:51.:10:54.

this time but could win the next time. All the events in France over

:10:55.:10:58.

the last year seemed to provide the most propitious circumstances for

:10:59.:11:02.

her to do well, and particularly if you throw in Trump and Brexit.

:11:03.:11:08.

Suppose it is Mr Sarkozy, and he goes through and wins the Republican

:11:09.:11:12.

nomination, and he and Marine Le Pen go through to the second round, that

:11:13.:11:20.

would mean, think about it, is that a lot of French socialist voters and

:11:21.:11:24.

those on the father left would have to grit their teeth and vote for

:11:25.:11:32.

Nicolas Sarkozy. They might not do it. We might see what we saw in

:11:33.:11:36.

America, where lots of potential Clinton voters did not turn out. You

:11:37.:11:48.

got politicians like Melanchon on the far left saying there are

:11:49.:11:50.

foreign workers taking bread out of French workers' mounts. We sometimes

:11:51.:11:58.

forget, because we tend to emphasise the National of the National front,

:11:59.:12:04.

but actually, there are economic policy is quite Bennite. Sarkozy is

:12:05.:12:15.

the Hillary Clinton of the French elections. He is Mr establishment.

:12:16.:12:27.

Juppe and the other third candidate are the same. You have to

:12:28.:12:32.

re-establish candidates running against an antiestablishment

:12:33.:12:34.

candidate. There are populist economic policies from the National

:12:35.:12:39.

front. The other three want to raise the retirement age and cut back on

:12:40.:12:42.

the 35 hour week, which are not classic electoral appeals. Mr Juppe

:12:43.:12:51.

used to be the Mayor of Bordeaux. And we are the biggest importers of

:12:52.:12:54.

claret, so that could have an effect. In 2002, it was Jack Shear

:12:55.:13:03.

against John Marine Le Pen, and the socialist campaign slogan was, vote

:13:04.:13:11.

for the Crook, not the fascist. We will see what they come up with this

:13:12.:13:12.

time. The Daily Politics is back at noon

:13:13.:13:14.

tomorrow on BBC Two, where on Wednesday I will have full

:13:15.:13:19.

coverage of the Chancellor's Autumn But remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:20.:13:25.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:26.:13:34.

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