Browse content similar to 26/02/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:43. | :00:48. | |
Theresa May still has plenty on her plate, | :00:49. | :00:49. | |
not least a battle over Brexit in the Lords. | :00:50. | :00:51. | |
But after Thursday's by-election win in Copeland, | :00:52. | :00:53. | |
the Prime Minister looks stronger than ever. | :00:54. | :00:55. | |
Jeremy Corbyn's Labour saw off Ukip in this week's other by-election, | :00:56. | :00:57. | |
but losing to the Tories in a heartland seat leaves the party | :00:58. | :01:00. | |
The leader of Scottish Labour joins me live. | :01:01. | :01:10. | |
You look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Sweden! | :01:11. | :01:15. | |
And Donald Trump may have been mocked for talking about the impact | :01:16. | :01:18. | |
of migration on Sweden, but after riots in Stockholm this | :01:19. | :01:20. | |
week, did the US president have the last laugh? | :01:21. | :01:28. | |
In London, will the rise in council tax in all but four local | :01:29. | :01:33. | |
authorities be enough to alleviate the crisis in social care? | :01:34. | :01:40. | |
And joining me for all of that, three journalists who I'm pleased | :01:41. | :01:43. | |
to say have so far not been banned from the White House. | :01:44. | :01:51. | |
I've tried banning them from this show repeatedly, | :01:52. | :01:55. | |
but somehow they just keep getting past BBC security - it's Sam Coates, | :01:56. | :01:58. | |
We have had two crucial by-elections, the results last | :01:59. | :02:08. | |
Thursday night. It's now Sunday morning, where do they believe | :02:09. | :02:13. | |
British politics? I think it leaves British politics looking as if it | :02:14. | :02:17. | |
may go ahead without Ukip is a strong and robust force. It is | :02:18. | :02:21. | |
difficult to see from where we are now how Ukip rebuilds into a | :02:22. | :02:27. | |
credible vote winning operation. I think it looks unprofessional, the | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
campaign they fought in Stoke was clearly winnable because the margin | :02:33. | :02:36. | |
with which Labour held onto that seat was not an impressive one but | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
they put forward arguably the wrong candidate, it was messy and it's | :02:41. | :02:44. | |
hard to see where they go from here, particularly with the money problems | :02:45. | :02:48. | |
they have and even Nigel Farage saying he's fed up of the party. If | :02:49. | :02:54. | |
Isabel is right, if Ukip is no longer a major factor, you look at | :02:55. | :03:01. | |
the state of Labour and the Lib Dems coming from a long way behind | :03:02. | :03:05. | |
despite their local government by-election successes, Tories never | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
more dominant. I think Theresa May is in a fascinating situation. She's | :03:11. | :03:14. | |
the most powerful Prime Minister of modern times for now because she | :03:15. | :03:20. | |
faces no confident, formidable opposition. Unlike Margaret Thatcher | :03:21. | :03:24. | |
who in the 1980s, although she won landslides in the end, often looked | :03:25. | :03:29. | |
like she was in trouble. She was inferred quite often in the build-up | :03:30. | :03:35. | |
to the election. David Owen, Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams. And quite | :03:36. | :03:42. | |
often she was worried. At the moment Theresa May faces no formidable UK | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
opposition. However, she is both strong and fragile because her | :03:48. | :03:51. | |
agenda is Brexit, which I still think many have not got to grips | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
with in terms of how complex and training and difficult it will be | :03:56. | :04:00. | |
for her. Thatcher faced no equivalent to Brexit so she is both | :04:01. | :04:06. | |
strong, formidably strong because of the wider UK political context, and | :04:07. | :04:10. | |
very fragile. It is just when you think you have never been more | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
dominant you are actually at the most dangerous, what can possibly go | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
wrong? I think that the money of her MPs they haven't begun to think | :04:20. | :04:22. | |
through the practicalities of Brexit and she does have a working majority | :04:23. | :04:28. | |
of about 17 in the House of Commons so at any point she could be put | :04:29. | :04:31. | |
under pressure from really opposition these days is done by the | :04:32. | :04:35. | |
two wins inside the Conservative Party, either the 15 Europhiles or | :04:36. | :04:42. | |
the bigger group of about 60 Brexiteers who have continued to | :04:43. | :04:44. | |
operate as a united and disciplined force within the Conservative Party | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
to get their agenda on the table. Either of those wings could be | :04:50. | :04:53. | |
disappointed at any point in the next three and a half years and that | :04:54. | :04:57. | |
would put her under pressure. I wouldn't completely rule out Ukip | :04:58. | :05:03. | |
coming back. The reason Ukip lost in Stoke I think it's because at the | :05:04. | :05:07. | |
moment Theresa May is delivering pretty much everything Ukip figures | :05:08. | :05:14. | |
might want to see. We might find the phrase Brexit means Brexit quite | :05:15. | :05:16. | |
anodyne but I think she is convincing people she will press | :05:17. | :05:20. | |
ahead with their agenda and deliver the leave vote that people buy a | :05:21. | :05:26. | |
slim majority voted for. Should that change, should there be talk of | :05:27. | :05:30. | |
transition periods, shut the migration settlement not make people | :05:31. | :05:34. | |
happy, then I think Ukip risks charging back up the centre ground | :05:35. | :05:38. | |
and causing more problems in future. That could be a two year gap in | :05:39. | :05:43. | |
which Ukip would have to survive. As I said, Ukip is on our agenda for | :05:44. | :05:46. | |
today. Thursday was a big night | :05:47. | :05:47. | |
for political obsessives like us, with not one but two | :05:48. | :05:49. | |
significant by-elections, Ellie braved the wind and rain | :05:50. | :05:54. | |
to bring you this report. The clouds had gathered, | :05:55. | :06:02. | |
the winds blew at gale force. Was a change in the air, or just | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
a weather system called Doris? Voters in Stoke-on-Trent | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
were about to find out. It's here, a sports hall | :06:12. | :06:14. | |
on a Thursday night that the country's media reckon | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
is the true eye of the storm. Would Labour suffer a lightning | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
strike to its very heart, or would the Ukip threat proved | :06:25. | :06:26. | |
to be a damp squib? Everybody seems to think the result | :06:27. | :06:29. | |
in Stoke-on-Trent would be close, just as they did 150-odd miles away | :06:30. | :06:32. | |
in Copeland, where the Tories are counting on stealing another | :06:33. | :06:35. | |
Labour heartland seat. Areas of high pressure in both | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
places, and some strange sights. We knew this wasn't a normal | :06:41. | :06:48. | |
by-election, and to prove it there is the rapper, | :06:49. | :06:50. | |
Professor Green. Chart-toppers aside, | :06:51. | :06:52. | |
winner of Stoke-on-Trent hit parade was announced first, | :06:53. | :06:55. | |
where everyone was so excited the candidates didn't even make it | :06:56. | :06:58. | |
onto the stage for the result. And I do hereby declare | :06:59. | :07:02. | |
that the said Gareth Snell Nigel Farage has said that victory | :07:03. | :07:05. | |
here in Stoke-on-Trent But Ukip's newish leader | :07:06. | :07:13. | |
played down the defeat, insisting his party's | :07:14. | :07:20. | |
time would come. Are you going to stand again | :07:21. | :07:23. | |
as an MP or has this No doubt I will stand again, | :07:24. | :07:29. | |
don't worry about that. The politics of hope beat | :07:30. | :07:32. | |
the politics of fear. I think Ukip are the ones this | :07:33. | :07:41. | |
weekend who have got But a few minutes later, | :07:42. | :07:44. | |
it turned out Labour had Harrison, Trudy Lynn, | :07:45. | :07:49. | |
the Conservative Party That was more than 2,000 | :07:50. | :07:53. | |
votes ahead of Labour. What has happened here tonight | :07:54. | :08:04. | |
is a truly historic event. Labour were disappointed, | :08:05. | :08:09. | |
but determined to be optimistic At a point when we're 15 to 18 | :08:10. | :08:11. | |
points behind in the polls... The Conservatives within 2000 votes | :08:12. | :08:22. | |
I think is an incredible The morning after the night | :08:23. | :08:26. | |
before, the losing parties were licking their wounds | :08:27. | :08:31. | |
and their lips over breakfast. For years and years, | :08:32. | :08:35. | |
Ukip was Nigel Farage, That has now changed, | :08:36. | :08:38. | |
that era has gone. It's a new era, it is | :08:39. | :08:45. | |
a second age for us. So that needs to be | :08:46. | :08:47. | |
more fully embedded, it needs to be more defined, | :08:48. | :08:52. | |
you know, and that will We have to continue to improve | :08:53. | :08:55. | |
in seats where we have stood. As we have done here, | :08:56. | :09:04. | |
we've improved on our 2015 result, that's what important, | :09:05. | :09:06. | |
is that we are taking steps Can I be the first to come | :09:07. | :09:09. | |
here today to congratulate you on being elected the new MP | :09:10. | :09:14. | |
for Stoke on Trent Central. Jeremy Corbyn has just arrived | :09:15. | :09:16. | |
in Stoke to welcome his newest MP. Not sure he's going to | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
Copeland later though. Earlier in the day, the Labour | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
leader had made clear he'd considered and discounted some | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
theories about the party's Since you found out that you'd lost | :09:29. | :09:30. | |
a seat to a governing party for the first time | :09:31. | :09:36. | |
since the Falklands War, have you at any point this morning | :09:37. | :09:40. | |
looked in the mirror and asked yourself this question - | :09:41. | :09:43. | |
could the problem actually be me? In the end it was the Conservatives | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
who came out on top. No governing party has made | :09:49. | :09:55. | |
a gain at a by-election With the self-styled people's army | :09:56. | :09:58. | |
of Ukip halted in Stoke, and Labour's wash-out | :09:59. | :10:04. | |
here in Copeland... There's little chance of rain | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
on Theresa May's parade. In the wake of that loss in | :10:09. | :10:20. | |
Copeland, the Scottish Labour Party has been meeting for its spring | :10:21. | :10:23. | |
conference in the Yesterday, deputy leader Tom Watson | :10:24. | :10:25. | |
warned delegates that unless Labour took the by-election defeat | :10:26. | :10:30. | |
seriously, the party's devastation in Scotland could be repeated | :10:31. | :10:32. | |
south of the border. Well, I'm joined now | :10:33. | :10:35. | |
by the leader of Scottish Labour, Even after your party had lost | :10:36. | :10:51. | |
Copeland to the Tories and with Labour now trailing 16 points in the | :10:52. | :10:54. | |
UK polls, you claim to have every faith that Jeremy Corbyn would | :10:55. | :10:59. | |
absolutely win the general election. What evidence can you bring to | :11:00. | :11:07. | |
support that? There is no doubt the result in Copeland was disappointing | :11:08. | :11:09. | |
for the Labour Party and I think it's a collective feeling for | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
everyone within the Labour Party and I want to do what I can to turn | :11:14. | :11:16. | |
around the fortunes of our party. That's what I've committed to do | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
while I have been the Scottish Labour leader. This two years ago we | :11:21. | :11:27. | |
were down the mines so to speak in terms of losing the faith of working | :11:28. | :11:30. | |
class communities across the country, but we listened very hard | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
to the message voters are sending and responded to it. That's what I'm | :11:35. | :11:38. | |
committed to doing in Scotland and that's what Jeremy Corbyn is | :11:39. | :11:44. | |
committed to doing UK wide. The latest polls put Labour at 14% in | :11:45. | :11:50. | |
Scotland, the Tories at ten points ahead of you in Scotland, even | :11:51. | :11:56. | |
Theresa May is more popular than Jeremy Corbyn in Scotland. So I will | :11:57. | :12:01. | |
try again - why are you so sure Jeremy Corbyn could win a general | :12:02. | :12:06. | |
election? What I said when you are talking about Scotland is that I'm | :12:07. | :12:09. | |
the leader of the Scottish Labour Party and I take responsibility for | :12:10. | :12:14. | |
our policies here. Voters said very clearly after the Scottish | :12:15. | :12:16. | |
Parliament election that they didn't have a clear enough sense of what we | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
stood for so I have been advocating a very strong anti-austerity | :12:21. | :12:24. | |
platform, coming up with ideas of how we can oppose the cuts and | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
invest in our future. That is something Jeremy Corbyn also | :12:30. | :12:32. | |
supports but I've also made it clear this weekend that we are opposed to | :12:33. | :12:39. | |
a second independence referendum. I want to bring Scotland back together | :12:40. | :12:42. | |
by focusing on the future and that's why I have been speaking about the | :12:43. | :12:47. | |
federal solution for the UK. I know that Jeremy Corbyn shares that | :12:48. | :12:50. | |
ambition because he is backing the plans for a people's Constitutional | :12:51. | :12:54. | |
Convention. Yes, these are difficult times for the Scottish Labour Party | :12:55. | :13:02. | |
and UK family, but I have a plan in place to turn things around. It will | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
take time though. I'm still not sure why you are so sure the Labour party | :13:08. | :13:12. | |
can win but let me come onto your plan. You want a UK wide | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
Constitutional Convention and that lead to a new Federalist settlement. | :13:18. | :13:23. | |
Is it the policy of the Labour Shadow Cabinet in Westminster to | :13:24. | :13:30. | |
carve England into federal regions? What we support at a UK wide level | :13:31. | :13:33. | |
is the people's constitutional convention. I have been careful to | :13:34. | :13:37. | |
prescribe what I think is in the best interests of Scotland but not | :13:38. | :13:40. | |
to dictate to other parts of the UK what is good for them, that's the | :13:41. | :13:46. | |
point of the people's constitutional convention. You heard Tom Watson say | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
there has to be a UK wide conversation about power, who has it | :13:51. | :13:54. | |
and how it is exercised across England. England hasn't been part of | :13:55. | :13:58. | |
this devolution story over the last 20 years, it is something that | :13:59. | :14:03. | |
happened between Scotland and London or Wales and London. No wonder | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
people in England feel disenfranchised from that. What | :14:09. | :14:11. | |
evidence can you bring to show there is any appetite in England for an | :14:12. | :14:17. | |
English federal solution to England, to carve England into federal | :14:18. | :14:21. | |
regions? Have you spoken to John Prescott about this? He might tell | :14:22. | :14:25. | |
you some of the difficulties. There's not even a debate about that | :14:26. | :14:30. | |
here, Kezia Dugdale, it is fantasy. I speak to John Prescott regularly. | :14:31. | :14:35. | |
What there is a debate about is the idea the world is changing so fast | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
that globalisation is taking jobs away from communities in the | :14:40. | :14:42. | |
north-east, that many working class communities feel left behind, that | :14:43. | :14:47. | |
Westminster feels very far away and the politicians within it feel | :14:48. | :14:50. | |
remote in part of the establishment. People are fed up with power being | :14:51. | :14:54. | |
exercised somewhere else, that's where I think federalism comes in | :14:55. | :14:57. | |
because it's about bringing power closer to people and in many ways | :14:58. | :15:01. | |
it's forced on us because of Brexit. We know the United Kingdom is | :15:02. | :15:10. | |
leaving the European Union so we have to talk about the repatriation | :15:11. | :15:12. | |
of those powers from Brussels to Britain. I want many of those powers | :15:13. | :15:15. | |
to go to the Scottish parliament but where should they go in the English | :15:16. | :15:18. | |
context? It is not as things currently stand the policy of the | :15:19. | :15:22. | |
English Labour Party to carve England into federal regions, | :15:23. | :15:23. | |
correct? It is absolutely the policy of the | :15:24. | :15:32. | |
UK Labour Party to support the people's Constitutional convention | :15:33. | :15:37. | |
to examining these questions. I think it is really important. You're | :15:38. | :15:41. | |
promising the Scottish people a federal solution, and you have not | :15:42. | :15:45. | |
even squared your own party for a federal solution in England. That is | :15:46. | :15:50. | |
not true. The UK Labour Party is united on this. I am going to | :15:51. | :15:54. | |
Cardiff next month to meet with Carwyn Jones and various leaders. | :15:55. | :15:59. | |
United on a federal solution? You know as well as I know it is not | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
united on a federal solution. We will have a conversation about power | :16:04. | :16:07. | |
in this country. It is not united on that | :16:08. | :16:31. | |
issue? This is the direction of travel. It is what you heard | :16:32. | :16:35. | |
yesterday from Sadiq Khan, from Tom Watson, when you hear from people | :16:36. | :16:37. | |
like Nick Forbes who lead Newcastle City Council and Labour's Local | :16:38. | :16:39. | |
Government Association. There is an appetite for talking about power. | :16:40. | :16:41. | |
Talking is one thing. We need to have this conversation across the | :16:42. | :16:44. | |
whole of the United Kingdom, to have a reformed United Kingdom. It is a | :16:45. | :16:46. | |
conversation you're offering Scotland, not the policy. Let's come | :16:47. | :16:48. | |
onto the labour made of London. He was in power for your conference. He | :16:49. | :16:51. | |
wrote in the record yesterday, there is no difference between Scottish | :16:52. | :16:53. | |
nationalism and racism. Would you like this opportunity to distance | :16:54. | :16:57. | |
yourself from that absurd claim? I think that Sadiq Khan was very clear | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
yesterday that he was not accusing the SNP of racism. What he was | :17:02. | :17:06. | |
saying clearly is that nationalism by its very nature divides people | :17:07. | :17:10. | |
and communities. That is what I said in my speech yesterday. I am fed up | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
living in a divided and fractured country and society. Our politics is | :17:16. | :17:19. | |
forcing is constantly to pick sides, whether you're a no, leave a remain, | :17:20. | :17:25. | |
it brings out the worst in our politicians and politics. All the | :17:26. | :17:28. | |
consensus we find in the grey areas is lost. That is why am standing | :17:29. | :17:33. | |
under a banner that together we are stronger. We have to come up with | :17:34. | :17:48. | |
ideas and focus on the future. That is why I agree with Sadiq Khan. He | :17:49. | :17:52. | |
said quite clearly in the Daily Record yesterday, and that the last | :17:53. | :17:54. | |
minute he adapted his speech to your conference yesterday, to try and | :17:55. | :17:57. | |
reduce the impact, that there was no difference between Scottish | :17:58. | :17:59. | |
nationalism and racism. Your colleague, and Sarwar, said that | :18:00. | :18:03. | |
even after he had tried to introduce the caveats, all forms of | :18:04. | :18:07. | |
nationalism rely on creating eyes and them. Let's call it for what it | :18:08. | :18:15. | |
is. So you are implying that the Scottish Nationalists are racist. | :18:16. | :18:19. | |
Would you care to distance yourself from that absurd claim? I utterly | :18:20. | :18:23. | |
refute that that is what Sadiq Khan said. I would never suggest that the | :18:24. | :18:29. | |
SNP are an inherently racist party. That does is a disservice. He did | :18:30. | :18:34. | |
not see it. What he did say, however, is that nationalism is | :18:35. | :18:38. | |
divisive. You know that better than anyone. I see your Twitter account. | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
Regularly your attack for the job you do as a journalist. Politics in | :18:44. | :18:48. | |
Scotland is divided on. I do not want to revisit that independence | :18:49. | :18:54. | |
question again for that reason. As leader of the Labour Party, I want | :18:55. | :18:56. | |
to bring our country back together, appeal to people who voted yes and | :18:57. | :19:03. | |
no. That banner, together we are stronger, that is where the answers | :19:04. | :19:06. | |
lie in defaulters can be found. If in response to the Mayor of London, | :19:07. | :19:11. | |
your colleague says, let's call it out for what it is, what is he | :19:12. | :19:15. | |
referring to if he is not implying that national symbol is racist? -- | :19:16. | :19:24. | |
and that nationalism is racist? He is saying that it leads to divisive | :19:25. | :19:28. | |
politics. The Labour Party has always advocated that together we | :19:29. | :19:32. | |
are stronger. Saying something is divisive is very different from | :19:33. | :19:36. | |
saying something is racist. That is what the Mayor of London said. That | :19:37. | :19:40. | |
is what your colleague was referring to. He did not. You would really | :19:41. | :19:45. | |
struggle to quote that from the Mayor of London. He talked about | :19:46. | :19:50. | |
being divided by race. What does that mean? I think he was very clear | :19:51. | :19:57. | |
that he was talking about divided politics. There is an appetite the | :19:58. | :20:00. | |
length and breadth of the country to end that divisive politics. That is | :20:01. | :20:05. | |
what I stand for, focusing on the future, bringing people back | :20:06. | :20:09. | |
together, concentrating on what the economy might look like in 20 years' | :20:10. | :20:13. | |
time in coming up with ideas to tackle it today. Thank you for | :20:14. | :20:14. | |
joining us. Thursday's win for Labour | :20:15. | :20:16. | |
in Stoke-on-Trent Central gave some relief to Jeremy Corbyn, | :20:17. | :20:18. | |
but for Ukip leader and defeated Stoke candidate Paul Nuttall | :20:19. | :20:20. | |
there were no consolation prizes. I'm joined now by Mr Nuttall's | :20:21. | :20:23. | |
principal political Welcome to the programme. Good | :20:24. | :20:33. | |
morning. How long will Paul Nuttall survivors Ukip leader, days, weeks, | :20:34. | :20:37. | |
months? You are in danger of not seeing the wood for the trees. Ukip | :20:38. | :20:43. | |
was formed in 1993 with the express purpose, much mocked, of getting | :20:44. | :20:47. | |
Britain out of the European Union. Under the brilliant leadership of | :20:48. | :20:51. | |
Nigel Farage, we were crucial in forcing a vacuous Prime Minister to | :20:52. | :20:55. | |
make a referendum promise he did not want to give. With our friends in | :20:56. | :21:01. | |
Fort leave and other organisations. Mac we know that. Get to the answer. | :21:02. | :21:07. | |
We helped to win that referendum. The iteration of Ukip at the moment | :21:08. | :21:12. | |
that we're in, the primary purpose, we are the guard dog of Brexit. | :21:13. | :21:17. | |
Viewed through that prism, the Stoke by-election was a brilliant success. | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
A brilliant success? We had the Tory candidate that had pumped out | :21:23. | :21:27. | |
publicity for Remain, for Cameron Bradley, preaching the gospel of | :21:28. | :21:31. | |
Brexit. We had a Labour candidate and we know what he really felt | :21:32. | :21:36. | |
about Brexit, preaching the Gospel according to Brexit. You lost. Well | :21:37. | :21:38. | |
the by-election was going on, we had the Labour Party in the House of | :21:39. | :21:55. | |
Commons pass the idea of trickling Article 50 by a landslide. Are | :21:56. | :21:57. | |
passionate thing, the thing that 35,000 Ukip members care about the | :21:58. | :21:59. | |
most, it is an extraordinary achievement. I am very proud. What | :22:00. | :22:02. | |
would you have described as victory as? If we could have got Paul | :22:03. | :22:04. | |
Nuttall into the House of Commons, that would have been a fantastic | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
cherry on the top. Losing was an extraordinary achievement? Many Ukip | :22:09. | :22:14. | |
supporters the Stoke was winnable, but Paul Nuttall's campaign was | :22:15. | :22:20. | |
marred by controversy, Tory voters refuse to vote tactically for Ukip | :22:21. | :22:27. | |
to beat Labour, his campaign, Mr Nuttall is to blame for not winning | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
what was a winnable seat? I do not see that at all. This is | :22:32. | :22:35. | |
counterintuitive, but Jeremy Corbyn did do one thing that made it more | :22:36. | :22:40. | |
difficult for us to win. Fantasy. That was to take Labour into a | :22:41. | :22:45. | |
Brexit position formerly. Just over 50 Labour MPs had voted against | :22:46. | :22:51. | |
triggering Article 50. In political terms, we have intimidated the | :22:52. | :22:54. | |
Labour Party into backing Brexit. How much good is it doing you? It | :22:55. | :22:57. | |
comes to the heart of the problem your party faces. | :22:58. | :23:14. | |
You're struggling to win Tory Eurosceptic voters. For the moment, | :23:15. | :23:16. | |
they seem happy with Theresa May. Stoke shows you're not winning | :23:17. | :23:18. | |
Labour Brexit voters either. If you cannot get the solution Tolisso | :23:19. | :23:20. | |
labour, where does your Broad come from? In terms of the by-election, | :23:21. | :23:23. | |
it came very early for Paul. I'm talking about the future. We have a | :23:24. | :23:26. | |
future agenda, and ideological argument with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour | :23:27. | :23:30. | |
Party, which is wedded to the notion of global citizenship and does not | :23:31. | :23:35. | |
recognise the nation state. We know he spent Christmas sitting around | :23:36. | :23:39. | |
campfires with Mexican Marxist dreaming of global government. We | :23:40. | :23:43. | |
believe in the nation state. We believe that the patriotic working | :23:44. | :23:46. | |
class vote will be receptive to that. Your Broad went down by 9% in | :23:47. | :23:52. | |
Cortland. In Copeland we were squeezed. In Stoke, we were unable | :23:53. | :23:57. | |
to squeeze the Tories, who are on a high. Our agenda is that social | :23:58. | :24:03. | |
solidarity is important but we arrange it in this country by nation | :24:04. | :24:07. | |
and community. We want an immigration system that is not only | :24:08. | :24:12. | |
reducing... We know what you want. I do not think people do. You had a | :24:13. | :24:16. | |
whole by-election to tell people and they did not vote for you and. When | :24:17. | :24:21. | |
Nigel Farage said it was fundamental that you were winner in Stoke, he | :24:22. | :24:26. | |
was wrong? Nigel chooses his own words. I would not rewrite them. It | :24:27. | :24:34. | |
would be a massive advantage to Ukip to have a leader in the House of | :24:35. | :24:37. | |
Commons in time to reply to the budget, Prime Minister's questions | :24:38. | :24:40. | |
and all of that. But we have taken the strategic view that we will | :24:41. | :24:43. | |
fight the Labour Party for the working class vote. It is also true | :24:44. | :24:48. | |
that the Conservatives will make a pitch for the working class vote | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
might as well. All three parties have certain advantages and | :24:53. | :24:56. | |
disadvantages. As part of that page, Nigel Farage said that your leader, | :24:57. | :25:01. | |
Paul Nuttall, should have taken a clear, by which I assume he meant | :25:02. | :25:06. | |
tough, line on immigration. Do you agree? He took a tough line on | :25:07. | :25:11. | |
immigration. He developed that idea at our party conference in the | :25:12. | :25:15. | |
spring. Nigel Farage did not think so? Nigel Farage made his speech | :25:16. | :25:19. | |
before Paul Nuttall made his speech. He said this in the aftermath of the | :25:20. | :25:25. | |
result. Once we have freedom to control and Borders, Paul wants to | :25:26. | :25:32. | |
set up an immigration system that includes an aptitude test, do you | :25:33. | :25:35. | |
have skills that the British economy needs, but also, and attitudes test, | :25:36. | :25:41. | |
do you subscribe to core British values such as gender equality and | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
freedom of expression? We will be making these arguments. It is | :25:47. | :25:50. | |
certainly true that Paul's campaign was thrown off course by, | :25:51. | :25:54. | |
particularly something that we knew the Labour Party had been preparing | :25:55. | :26:00. | |
to run, the smear on the untruths, the implications about Hillsborough. | :26:01. | :26:03. | |
If you knew you should have anticipated it. Alan Banks, he helps | :26:04. | :26:09. | |
to bankroll your party, he said that Mr Nuttall needs to toss out the | :26:10. | :26:14. | |
Tory cabal in Europe, by which he means Douglas Carswell, Neil | :26:15. | :26:17. | |
Hamilton. Should they be stripped of their membership? Of course not. As | :26:18. | :26:23. | |
far as I knew, Alan Banks was a member of the Conservative Party | :26:24. | :26:26. | |
formally. I do not know who this Tory cabal is supposed to be. He | :26:27. | :26:31. | |
says that your party is more like a jumble sale than a political party. | :26:32. | :26:35. | |
He says that the party should make him chairman or they will work. What | :26:36. | :26:41. | |
do you see to that? He has made that statement several times over many | :26:42. | :26:44. | |
months, including if you do not throw out your only MP. Douglas | :26:45. | :26:49. | |
Carswell has managed to win twice under Ukip colours. Should Tibi | :26:50. | :26:53. | |
chairman? I think we have an excellent young chairman at the | :26:54. | :27:00. | |
moment. He is doing a good job. The idea that Leave.EU was as smooth | :27:01. | :27:05. | |
running brilliant machine, that does not sit with the facts as I | :27:06. | :27:08. | |
understand them. Suzanne Evans says it would be no great loss for Ukip | :27:09. | :27:12. | |
if Mr Banks walked out, severed his ties and took his money elsewhere. | :27:13. | :27:18. | |
Is she right. I am always happy people who want to give money and | :27:19. | :27:21. | |
support your party want to stay in the party. The best donors donate | :27:22. | :27:26. | |
and do not seek to dictate. If they are experts in certain fields, | :27:27. | :27:30. | |
people should listen to their views but to have a daughter telling the | :27:31. | :27:33. | |
party leader who should be party chairman, that is a nonstarter. You | :27:34. | :27:39. | |
have described your existing party chairman is excellent. He said it | :27:40. | :27:44. | |
could be 20 years before Ukip wins by-election. Is he being too | :27:45. | :27:49. | |
optimistic? There is a general election coming up in the years' | :27:50. | :27:53. | |
time. We will be aiming to win seats in that. Before that, we will be the | :27:54. | :27:58. | |
guard dog for Brexit, to make sure this extraordinary achievement of a | :27:59. | :28:03. | |
little party... You are guard dog without a kennel, you cannot get | :28:04. | :28:07. | |
seat? We're keeping the big establishment parties to do the will | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
of the people. If we achieve nothing else at all, that will be a | :28:12. | :28:15. | |
magnificent achievement. Thank you very much. | :28:16. | :28:17. | |
Sweden isn't somewhere we talk about often | :28:18. | :28:18. | |
should because this week it was pulled into | :28:19. | :28:22. | |
the global spotlight, thanks | :28:23. | :28:22. | |
Last weekend, Mr Trump was mocked for referring to an incident that | :28:23. | :28:32. | |
had occurred last night in Sweden as a result of the country's open | :28:33. | :28:35. | |
Critics were quick to point out that no such incident had occurred | :28:36. | :28:39. | |
and Mr Trump later clarified on Twitter and he was talking | :28:40. | :28:41. | |
about a report he had watched on Fox News. | :28:42. | :28:45. | |
But as if to prove he was onto something, | :28:46. | :28:47. | |
next day a riot broke out in a Stockholm suburb | :28:48. | :28:50. | |
with a large migrant population, following unrest in such areas | :28:51. | :28:52. | |
So what has been Sweden's experience of migration? | :28:53. | :29:02. | |
In 2015, a record 162,000 people claimed asylum there, the second | :29:03. | :29:04. | |
That number dropped to 29,000 in 2016 after the country introduced | :29:05. | :29:11. | |
border restrictions and stopped offering permanent | :29:12. | :29:13. | |
Tensions have risen, along with claims of links to crime, | :29:14. | :29:21. | |
although official statistics do not provide evidence of a refugee driven | :29:22. | :29:23. | |
Nigel Farage defended Mr Trump, claiming this week that migrants | :29:24. | :29:32. | |
have led to a dramatic rise in sexual offences. | :29:33. | :29:35. | |
Although the country does have the highest reported | :29:36. | :29:37. | |
rate of rape in Europe, Swedish authorities say recent rises | :29:38. | :29:39. | |
were due to changes to how rape and sex crimes are recorded. | :29:40. | :29:45. | |
Aside from the issue of crime, Sweden has struggled | :29:46. | :29:47. | |
Levels of inequality between natives and migrants when it comes | :29:48. | :29:52. | |
Unemployment rates are three times higher for foreign-born workers | :29:53. | :29:56. | |
We're joined now by Laila Naraghi, she's a Swedish MP from the | :29:57. | :30:08. | |
governing Social Democratic Party, and by the author and | :30:09. | :30:11. | |
The Swedish political establishment was outraged by Mr Trump's remarks, | :30:12. | :30:26. | |
pointing to a riot that hadn't taken place, then a few nights later | :30:27. | :30:31. | |
serious riots did break out in a largely migrant suburb of Stockholm | :30:32. | :30:35. | |
so he wasn't far out, was he? I think he was far out because he is | :30:36. | :30:40. | |
misleading the public with how he uses these statistics. I think it is | :30:41. | :30:45. | |
important to remember that the violence has decreased in Sweden for | :30:46. | :30:49. | |
the past 20 years and research shows there is no evidence that indicate | :30:50. | :30:53. | |
that immigration leads to crime and so I think it is far out. The social | :30:54. | :31:01. | |
unrest in these different areas is not because of their ethical | :31:02. | :31:05. | |
backgrounds of these people living there but more about social economic | :31:06. | :31:11. | |
reasons. OK, no evidence migrants are responsible for any kind of | :31:12. | :31:15. | |
crime? This story reminds me after what happened to the Charlie Hebdo | :31:16. | :31:23. | |
attacks in Paris when also a Fox News commentator said something that | :31:24. | :31:28. | |
was outlandish about Paris and the Mayor of Paris threatened to sue Fox | :31:29. | :31:32. | |
News, saying you are making our city look bad. It's a bit like that | :31:33. | :31:36. | |
because the truth on this lies between Donald Trump on the Swedish | :31:37. | :31:41. | |
authorities on this. Sweden and Swedish government is very reluctant | :31:42. | :31:47. | |
to admit any downsides of its own migration policy and particularly | :31:48. | :31:50. | |
the migration it hard in 2015 but there are very obvious downsides | :31:51. | :31:56. | |
because Sweden is not a country that needs a non-skilled labour force | :31:57. | :32:02. | |
which doesn't speak Swedish. What was raised as the matter of | :32:03. | :32:07. | |
evidence, what is the evidence? First of all if I can say so the | :32:08. | :32:11. | |
rape statistics in Sweden that have been cited are familiar with the | :32:12. | :32:14. | |
rape statistics across other countries that have seen similar | :32:15. | :32:19. | |
forms of migration. Danish authorities and the Norwegian | :32:20. | :32:23. | |
authorities have recorded a similar thing. It is not done by ethnicity | :32:24. | :32:28. | |
so we don't know. And this is part of the problem. It is again a lot of | :32:29. | :32:34. | |
lies and rumours going about. When it is about for example rape, it is | :32:35. | :32:40. | |
difficult to compare the statistics because in Sweden for example many | :32:41. | :32:45. | |
crimes that in other countries are labelled as bodily harm or assault | :32:46. | :32:50. | |
are in Sweden labelled as rape. Also how it is counted because if a woman | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
goes to the police and reports that her husband or boyfriend has raped | :32:56. | :33:03. | |
her, and done it every night for one year, in Sweden that is counted as | :33:04. | :33:08. | |
365 offences. Something is going wrong, I look at the recent news | :33:09. | :33:13. | |
from Sweden. Six Afghan child refugees committed suicide in the | :33:14. | :33:16. | |
last six months, unemployment among recent migrants now five times | :33:17. | :33:22. | |
higher than among non-migrants. We have seen gang violence in Malmo | :33:23. | :33:28. | |
where a British child was killed by a grenade, rioting in Stockholm. | :33:29. | :33:32. | |
Police in Sweden say there are 53 areas of the country where it is now | :33:33. | :33:36. | |
dangerous to patrol. Something has gone wrong. Let me get back to what | :33:37. | :33:43. | |
I think is the core of this debate if I may and that is the right for | :33:44. | :33:48. | |
people fleeing war and political persecution to seek asylum, that is | :33:49. | :33:52. | |
a human right. In Sweden we don't think we can do everything, but we | :33:53. | :33:57. | |
want to live up to our obligation, every country has an obligation to | :33:58. | :34:01. | |
receive asylum seekers. But you have changed your policy on that because | :34:02. | :34:06. | |
having taken 163,001 year alone, you have then closed your borders, I | :34:07. | :34:10. | |
think very wisely, closed the border which means 10,000 people per day at | :34:11. | :34:16. | |
one point were walking from Denmark in to Malmo, you rightly changed | :34:17. | :34:20. | |
that so he realised whatever ones aspirations in terms of asylum, it | :34:21. | :34:24. | |
sometimes meets reality and Sweden is meeting the reality of this. | :34:25. | :34:31. | |
Let's respond to that. We are not naive, we know we cannot do | :34:32. | :34:34. | |
everything but we want to try to do our share as we think other | :34:35. | :34:38. | |
countries also need to do their share. But let me say that, if you | :34:39. | :34:42. | |
look at what the World Economic Forum is saying about our country | :34:43. | :34:45. | |
they show we are in the top of many rankings, the best country to live | :34:46. | :34:50. | |
in, to age in, to have children in, to start into -- to start | :34:51. | :34:58. | |
enterprise. Why have you not been so good at integrating migrants? The | :34:59. | :35:05. | |
unemployment rate is five times higher among migrants than | :35:06. | :35:09. | |
non-migrants and that's the highest ratio of any country in the EU and | :35:10. | :35:14. | |
the OECD, why have you not been able to integrate the people you have | :35:15. | :35:19. | |
brought in for humanitarian reasons? I'm sure there are things we can do | :35:20. | :35:24. | |
much better of course but if you look for example at the immigration | :35:25. | :35:27. | |
that came in the 90s from the Balkans, they are well integrated | :35:28. | :35:32. | |
and contributing to our society. They are starting enterprises and | :35:33. | :35:34. | |
working in different fields of society, and they help our country. | :35:35. | :35:43. | |
Why have they not got jobs, the migrants that have come in? It takes | :35:44. | :35:49. | |
time. In the 90s we managed it and I'm sure we can do it again. Can I | :35:50. | :35:54. | |
put this into some context, it is clear Sweden has got problems as a | :35:55. | :35:58. | |
result of the number of migrants that come in, whether it is as bad | :35:59. | :36:03. | |
as Mr Trump and others make out is another matter, but perhaps I can | :36:04. | :36:06. | |
put it into context. Malmo, which has been at the centre of many of | :36:07. | :36:11. | |
these migrant problems, its homicide rate is three per hundred thousand. | :36:12. | :36:18. | |
Chicago, 28 per 100,000. It may have problems but they are not huge. No, | :36:19. | :36:24. | |
they are pretty huge and I think they will grow. The Balkan refugees | :36:25. | :36:29. | |
into Sweden in the 90s did bring a lot of problems and Sweden did for | :36:30. | :36:33. | |
the first time see serious ethnic gang rivalries. There was an upsurge | :36:34. | :36:37. | |
in gang-related violence that has gone on since. The situation in | :36:38. | :36:43. | |
Malmo in particular is exaggerated by some people, there's no doubt | :36:44. | :36:47. | |
about that, I have been there many times and it is undoubtedly | :36:48. | :36:50. | |
exaggerated by some, it is also vastly unpersuaded by the Swedish | :36:51. | :36:56. | |
authorities. -- understated. In 2010, one in ten Jews in Malmo | :36:57. | :37:06. | |
registered some form of attack on them. It got so bad that in 2010 | :37:07. | :37:16. | |
people offered to escort Jews... You have had a good say and I have got | :37:17. | :37:20. | |
to be fair here, what do you say to that, Laila Naraghi? There are | :37:21. | :37:26. | |
people trying to frame our country in a certain way to push their own | :37:27. | :37:30. | |
agenda. I regret that President Trump is trying to slander our | :37:31. | :37:37. | |
country. But what about the specific point on Malmo? If you speak to | :37:38. | :37:40. | |
people in Malmo and also to different congregations, they say | :37:41. | :37:45. | |
they are working together with the authorities to improve this. I say | :37:46. | :37:49. | |
again, there are a lot of people trying to spread rumours and lies. | :37:50. | :37:54. | |
Your situation is very like the situation we had in Britain when we | :37:55. | :37:59. | |
have these situations in Rotherham and elsewhere. 1400 girls were raped | :38:00. | :38:03. | |
in Rotherham before police even admitted it was going on. That | :38:04. | :38:08. | |
happened in Britain in the last decade, a similar phenomenon. An | :38:09. | :38:11. | |
upsurge in particularly sexual and other forms of violence and then | :38:12. | :38:15. | |
total denial by an entire political class is now something that is | :38:16. | :38:20. | |
happening in Sweden. I see it in Swedish authorities and the denial | :38:21. | :38:23. | |
that comes up and the desire to laugh and dismiss Trump but he's not | :38:24. | :38:28. | |
answer nothing and that's a painful thing for any society to want to | :38:29. | :38:35. | |
admit to. There are number of Swedes who think the establishment is | :38:36. | :38:42. | |
covering up the true statistics, that you don't break crime down by | :38:43. | :38:47. | |
ethnic crimes, people are suspicious of the centre-left and centre-right | :38:48. | :38:52. | |
parties now in Sweden. There is no denial and no cover-up. This is what | :38:53. | :38:56. | |
I'm speaking about when I say people are trying to frame it in a certain | :38:57. | :39:00. | |
way. The social unrest is not because of the ethnical background | :39:01. | :39:04. | |
of the people living there but rather because of different | :39:05. | :39:08. | |
socioeconomics conditions. There is no research that shows | :39:09. | :39:13. | |
immigration... But you don't do the research into it. Swedish | :39:14. | :39:16. | |
authorities deliberately ensure you cannot carry out such research and | :39:17. | :39:20. | |
after the attacks in Cologne in 2015 it was the first time then that the | :39:21. | :39:24. | |
Swedish authorities and press admitted that similar sexual | :39:25. | :39:28. | |
molestation have been going on for years in Sweden. Is it right to | :39:29. | :39:35. | |
think, given the problem is maybe not as bad as many people make out | :39:36. | :39:40. | |
but clearly problems, given these problems, is the age of mass asylum | :39:41. | :39:45. | |
seeking for Sweden over? You have cut the numbers by 80% coming in | :39:46. | :39:50. | |
last year compared with 2015, is it over while you concentrate on | :39:51. | :39:54. | |
getting right the people that you have there already? We want to do | :39:55. | :39:59. | |
our share, we have done a lot and now we are concentrating of course | :40:00. | :40:02. | |
on integration and making sure people get a job, and also | :40:03. | :40:15. | |
on big welfare investments because it's important to remember that for | :40:16. | :40:19. | |
eight years Sweden were governed by a government that prioritised big | :40:20. | :40:21. | |
tax cuts instead of investment in welfare. It may just not work. I am | :40:22. | :40:25. | |
grateful to you both, we have to leave it there. | :40:26. | :40:26. | |
It's coming up to 11:40am, you're watching the Sunday Politics. | :40:27. | :40:28. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :40:29. | :40:31. | |
the Week Ahead, when we'll be asking if the Government is facing defeat | :40:32. | :40:36. | |
Welcome back. Article 50, which triggers the beginning of Britain | :40:37. | :03:59. | |
leaving the European Union and start negotiations, is winding its way | :04:00. | :04:03. | |
through the Lords in this coming week. Tarzan has made an | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
intervention, let's just see the headline from the Mail on Sunday. | :04:08. | :04:14. | |
Lord Heseltine, Michael Heseltine, my fightback starts here, he is | :04:15. | :04:18. | |
going to defy Theresa May. I divide one Prime Minister over the poll | :04:19. | :04:22. | |
tax, I'm ready to defy this one in the Lords over Brexit. There we go, | :04:23. | :04:26. | |
that's going to happen this week. We will see how far he gets. I don't | :04:27. | :04:32. | |
think he will get very far, I don't think Loyalist Tory MPs and | :04:33. | :04:36. | |
Brexiteers are quaking in their boots at the prospect of a rebellion | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
led by Michael Heseltine. I sense that many Tory MPs are already | :04:42. | :04:46. | |
moving on to the next question about Brexit, and the discussion over how | :04:47. | :04:50. | |
much it will cost us to come out. The fact they are already debating | :04:51. | :04:56. | |
that suggests to me they feel things will go fairly smoothly in terms of | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
the legislation. When I spoke to the Labour leader in the Lords last week | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
on the daily politics, she said she was going to push hard for the kind | :05:07. | :05:09. | |
of amendments Lord has all-time is talking about and they would bring | :05:10. | :05:18. | |
that back to the Commons. But if the Commons pinged it back to the Lords | :05:19. | :05:21. | |
with the amendments taken out, she made it clear that was the end of | :05:22. | :05:28. | |
it. Is that right? That's about right. This is probably really a | :05:29. | :05:33. | |
large destruction. There will be to micro issues that come up in the | :05:34. | :05:38. | |
Lords, one is on the future of EU nationals, that could be voted on as | :05:39. | :05:43. | |
soon as this Wednesday, and then the main vote in the Lords on a week on | :05:44. | :05:47. | |
Tuesday, when there is this question of what sort of vote will MPs and | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
peers get at the end of the Brexit process and that is what has | :05:52. | :05:55. | |
all-time is talking about. He wants to make sure there are guarantees in | :05:56. | :06:00. | |
place. The kind of things peers are looking for are pretty moderate and | :06:01. | :06:04. | |
the Government have hinted they could deliver on both of them | :06:05. | :06:10. | |
already. But they are still not prepared... Amber Rudd said they | :06:11. | :06:14. | |
were not prepared... They may say yes we are going to do that but they | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
won't allow whatever that is to be enshrined in the legislation. The | :06:19. | :06:23. | |
question is whether we think this is dancing on the head of a pin. The | :06:24. | :06:27. | |
Government have already promised something in the House of Commons, | :06:28. | :06:30. | |
but will they write it down, I don't think that's the biggest problem in | :06:31. | :06:35. | |
the world. In a sense this is a great magicians trick by Theresa May | :06:36. | :06:38. | |
because it is not the most important thing. The most important thing in | :06:39. | :06:45. | |
Brexit is going on in those committees behind closed doors when | :06:46. | :06:47. | |
they are trying to work out what the next migration system is for Britain | :06:48. | :06:52. | |
and there are some interesting, indeed toxic proposals, but at the | :06:53. | :06:55. | |
moment Downing Street are happy to let us talk about the constitutional | :06:56. | :06:59. | |
propriety of what MPs are doing over the next eight days. It seems to me | :07:00. | :07:06. | |
the irony is that if we had a second chamber that can claim some kind of | :07:07. | :07:10. | |
democratic legitimacy, which the one we have cannot, it would be able to | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
cause the Government more trouble on this, it would be more robust. | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
Absolutely. I saw the interview we did with the Labour Leader of the | :07:20. | :07:27. | |
Lords, they are very conscious, of the fact they are not elected and | :07:28. | :07:32. | |
have limited powers. She was clear to you they would not impede the | :07:33. | :07:36. | |
timetable for triggering Article 50 so we might get a bit of theatre, | :07:37. | :07:40. | |
Michael Heseltine might deliver a brilliant speech. It is interesting | :07:41. | :07:46. | |
that Euroscepticism gun under Margaret Thatcher in the Tory party | :07:47. | :07:51. | |
but two offer senior ministers Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine are the | :07:52. | :07:55. | |
most prominent opponents now but they will change nothing at this | :07:56. | :07:59. | |
point. She will have the space to trigger Article 50 within her | :08:00. | :08:04. | |
timetable. Let's move on. Let me show you a picture tweeted by Nigel | :08:05. | :08:06. | |
Farage. That is Nigel Farage and a small | :08:07. | :08:16. | |
group of people having dinner, and within that small group of people is | :08:17. | :08:20. | |
the president of the United States, and it was taken in the last couple | :08:21. | :08:25. | |
of days. This would suggest that if he can command that amount of the | :08:26. | :08:31. | |
President's time in a small group of people, then he's actually rather | :08:32. | :08:35. | |
close to the president. Make no mistake about it, Nigel Farage is | :08:36. | :08:40. | |
now to and fro Washington more regularly than perhaps he is here. | :08:41. | :08:47. | |
Hopefully that LBC programme is recorded over in the state. He's not | :08:48. | :08:53. | |
only close to the president but to a series of people within the | :08:54. | :08:56. | |
administration. That relationship there is a remarkable one and one to | :08:57. | :09:01. | |
keep an eye on. Will the main government be tempted to tap into | :09:02. | :09:06. | |
that relationship at any time or is it just seething with anger? You can | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
feel a ripple of discontentment over this. We are in the middle of | :09:13. | :09:18. | |
negotiating the state visit and the sort of pomp and circumstance and | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
what kind of greeting Britain should give Donald Trump when he comes over | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
later in the year. There is a great deal of neurotic thought going into | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
what that should look like, but one of the most interesting things about | :09:31. | :09:33. | |
our relationship with Donald Trump is that there is a nervousness among | :09:34. | :09:37. | |
some Cabinet ministers that we are being seen to go too far, too fast | :09:38. | :09:41. | |
with the prospect of a trade deal. Even amongst some Brexiteer cabinet | :09:42. | :09:45. | |
ministers, they worry we won't get a very good trade deal with the US and | :09:46. | :09:50. | |
we are tolerably placing a lot of stalled by it. When we see the kind | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
of deal they want to pitch with us there might be some pulling back and | :09:55. | :10:03. | |
that could be an awkward moment in terms of our relationship, and no | :10:04. | :10:05. | |
doubt Nigel at that term -- at that point will accuse the UK of doing | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
the dirty on Donald Trump. If there was a deal, would they get it | :10:12. | :10:19. | |
through the House of Commons? Nigel Farage is having dinner with the | :10:20. | :10:23. | |
president, not bad as a kind of lifestyle but he's politically | :10:24. | :10:27. | |
rootless, he won't be an MEP much longer so if you look at where is | :10:28. | :10:30. | |
his political base to build on this great time he's having, there is | :10:31. | :10:35. | |
one. Given that there is one I think he's just having a great time and it | :10:36. | :10:38. | |
isn't much more significant than that. No? There's a lot to be said | :10:39. | :10:48. | |
for having a great time. You are having a great time. Let's just | :10:49. | :10:57. | |
look, because of the dominance of the Government we kind of it nor | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
there are problems piling up, only what, ten days with the Budget to | :11:03. | :11:08. | |
go, piling up for Mrs May and her government. The business rates which | :11:09. | :11:14. | |
has alarmed a lot of Tories, this disability cuts which are really a | :11:15. | :11:17. | |
serious problem for the Government, and the desperate need for more | :11:18. | :11:21. | |
money for social care. There are other issues, there are problems | :11:22. | :11:26. | |
there and they involve spending money. Absolutely and some people | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
argue Theresa May has only one Monday and that is to deliver Brexit | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
but it is impossible as a Prime Minister to ignore everything else. | :11:35. | :11:41. | |
And she doesn't want to either. The bubbling issue of social care and | :11:42. | :11:44. | |
the NHS is the biggest single problem for her in the weeks and | :11:45. | :11:49. | |
months ahead, she has got to come up with something. And Mr Hammond will | :11:50. | :11:52. | |
have to loosen his belt a little bit. I think he will in relation to | :11:53. | :11:58. | |
the NHS, he didn't mention it in the Autumn Statement, which was | :11:59. | :12:01. | |
remarkable, and he cannot get away with not mentioning it this time. If | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
he mentions it, it has to be in a positive context in some way or | :12:06. | :12:09. | |
another and it is one example of many. She is both strong because she | :12:10. | :12:12. | |
is so far ahead in the opinion polls, but this in tray is one of | :12:13. | :12:17. | |
the most daunting a Prime Minister has faced in recent times I think. | :12:18. | :12:23. | |
Here is what will happen on Budget day, money will be more money, | :12:24. | :12:29. | |
magically found down the back of the Treasury sofa. The projections are | :12:30. | :12:35. | |
that he has wiggle room of about 12 billion. But look at the bills, | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
rebels involved in business rates suggest the Chancellor will have to | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
throw up ?2 billion at that problem. 3.7 billion is the potential cost of | :12:45. | :12:48. | |
this judgment about disability benefits. The Government will try to | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
find different ways of satisfying it but who knows. It will not popular. | :12:53. | :12:58. | |
I'm not sure they will throw money at the NHS, they want an interim | :12:59. | :13:01. | |
settlement on social care which will alleviate pressure on the NHS but | :13:02. | :13:05. | |
they feel... That's another couple of billion by the way. They feel in | :13:06. | :13:12. | |
the Treasury that the NHS has not delivered on what Simon Stevens | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
promised them. But here is the bigger problem for Philip Hammond, | :13:18. | :13:22. | |
he has two This year and he thinks the second one in the autumn is more | :13:23. | :13:25. | |
important because that is when people will feel the cost living | :13:26. | :13:27. | |
squeeze. The Daily Politics is back at noon | :13:28. | :13:29. | |
on BBC Two tomorrow. We'll be back here at | :13:30. | :13:33. | |
the same time next week. Remember - if it's Sunday, | :13:34. | :13:35. | |
it's the Sunday Politics. | :13:36. | :13:42. |