19/11/2017 Sunday Politics


19/11/2017

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LineFromTo

Morning everyone, and welcome

to the Sunday Politics.

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I'm Sarah Smith.

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And this is your guide

to all the big stories that

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are shaping politics this weekend,

and a few of the smaller ones too.

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Philip Hammond is getting ready

to deliver his latest Budget

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on Wednesday and he's not short

of advice - to spend more,

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show restraint, even

to stop being an Eyore -

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but can he change the direction

of the country and his government?

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Conservative Party darling

Jacob Rees-Mogg has

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some advice of his own.

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He thinks the Chancellor

is being far too gloomy about Brexit

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- he joins me live to explain why.

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The former Leave campaign leader,

Gisela Stuart, will be here debating

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with pro-EU campaigner

Alastair Campbell, after taking

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a trip to her native Germany

to speak to businesses

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about Brexit.

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And, as we wait to find out what's

on the menu for this week's budget,

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we're in a diner off

the A1 in Peterborough,

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finding out who people most trust

with the economy -

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Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?

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In London - a tale of community,

housing and football.

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Why full-time might

soon be called on

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Dulwich Hamlet Football Club.

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All that coming up in the programme.

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And with me for for all of it,

three journalists who've promised

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not to show off like Michael Gove

by using any long economicky words -

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although I'm not sure they really

know that many anyway -

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it's Tom Newton Dunn,

Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.

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Let's take a look at the big

political stories making the news

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this Sunday morning,

and as you might expect there's

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plenty of speculation

about what might or not might be

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in Philip Hammond's Budget.

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The Chancellor is promising a big

investment in new technology,

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including driverless cars -

which could be on the road by 2021.

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He's been interviewed

in the Sunday Times,

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where he talks about plans to reach

the target of building

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300,000 homes every year,

or the equivalent of a city

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the size of Leeds.

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That paper speculates that he's

attempting to turn from "fiscal

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Phil" into "hopeful Hammond"

as he tries to set out

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a vision for the country,

not just a list of numbers.

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The Sunday Telegraph thinks that

Mr Hammond is planning to offer

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a pay rise to nurses as part

of a bid to take on Labour.

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But that hasn't impressed

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.

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He's spoken to a number of papers

and is calling for an emergency

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budget to invest in public services

and help struggling households.

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So that's a taste of what you might

hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond

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and Mr McDonnell have both been

appearing this morning

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on the Andrew Marr Show.

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I think Britain has a very

bright future ahead of it,

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and we have to embrace

the opportunities that

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a post-Brexit world will offer.

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They will be opportunities that

are based on huge change,

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huge technological evolution.

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It's not always going to be easy,

but the British people have shown

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time and time again that we're up

for these challenges.

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For many people out there,

this is a depression.

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We've had people whose wages

have been cut by 10%.

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Nurses, for example.

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We've had people who are now...

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1.25 million food parcels handed out

in the sixth richest

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country in the world.

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That's what I call a recession

for large numbers of people.

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We will be talking about Labour and

their economic policies in a moment,

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but let's start with what we might

expect from the budget. We will talk

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to our panel of political observers.

Philip Hammond is under pressure to

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set out a bold vision and reset the

government's programme. Can we

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expect that?

No, we can't. We have

heard enough from the Chancellor

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across various broadcast and his

article in the Sunday Times. I think

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we will not be getting a bold

budget. His precise words short... A

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short time ago were a balanced

budget. Some Tory hearts will think.

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They desperately want something to

go out and shout about, something to

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capture people's imagination, and do

big and bold things, like how on

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earth are they going to build those

new 300,000 houses a year? There are

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good reasons why he has chosen what

appears to be a pretty staid,

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Conservative budget, and that is

that they are probably unable to get

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anything bold through Parliament.

His capital is so low among Tory

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MPs. If you have a minority

government, it is tricky.

We have

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seen ministers on programmes like

this in the last few weeks putting

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in the bids for what they would like

spending on, whether it be payment

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for nurses or parliament. Would he

struggled to get something radical

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through the Commons?

Big ideas cost

money. That's the problem. Bold

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ideas are controversial. In some

ways, Tory MPs are asking their

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Chancellor to do the impossible.

Government is already doing

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something big and bold, which is

Brexit. That has implications for

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how much money is available, how

many risks you want to take with

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everything else. What is crucial is

that he demonstrates a reputation

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for competence. The reputation that

the Conservative government has for

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economic competence, that many

people prefer them to Labour on the

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issue of economic competence. The

worst thing he could do is come up

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with a big, bold idea that

unravelled quickly. What they

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absolutely don't want is to come up

with an exciting idea that falls

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apart three days after the budget.

He is under pressure from

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Brexiteers, who are suspicious of

him. Does he have to offer them

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something?

Part of his problem is he

has to offer so many different

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people different things. This is

Philip Hammond trying to be and

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dynamic.

It is hard to tell

sometimes.

At least in theoretical

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terms. His longer-term difficulty is

that, if you look at the economic

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cycle, we are getting to a point

where we are probably overdue, if

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you put Brexit to one side, overdue

some kind of correction or downturn,

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if you look what has happened to

asset prices globally. What will be

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worrying for the Treasury is, just

as everyone is saying we should turn

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on the taps and build this or that,

we might be at the top of a cycle,

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and the Treasury will want to lose

something in the armoury in terms of

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probably growing the deficit if

there are economic difficulties in

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the next two years, and then there

is Brexit as well.

It sounds

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impossible.

I think so. Talking to

his friends and colleagues over the

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last few days, he had to make a

call, which was precisely how much

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can I get away with, with my

political capital being as low as it

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is, with the mixed problems he had

at the last budget, and a lot of the

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party disliking his approach to

Brexit. He is damned if he is,

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damned if he doesn't. Universal

Credit, we are expecting a reduction

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in the time it takes to wait,

business rates, affected by high

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inflation... I think we will see a

problem fixing budget which will

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probably do quite a lot of important

spadework in many areas.

We will

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pick up on some of this later in the

programme.

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Let's speak now to the Conservative

MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week

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he helpfully launched an alternative

"budget for Brexit" and advised

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the Chancellor to be less gloomy

about the consequences

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of leaving the EU.

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Thank you for joining us. Your

alternative budget is pretty

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radical. Almost half corporation

tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the

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London market. It seems you are

advocating the opposite from what we

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will hear from your Chancellor on

Wednesday.

There are two parts to

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the proposals I suggested. One is

that we should show that after we

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have left the European Union, the UK

is open to the rest of the world. It

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is about opening up to the rest of

the world. Secondly, looking at the

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modelling that has been done by the

Treasury and some other forecasters,

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which has been so comprehensively

wrong. The forecasts made about what

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would happen after Brexit have

turned out to be hopelessly false.

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The team at Cardiff University have

done some modelling based on the

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classical economic principles and

what happens if you move to free

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trade that would be very positive

for the economy.

You are predicting

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a Brexit dividend of £135 billion,

which sounds fantastic. Why are you

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right, and everybody else, including

the Bank of England and the

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Institute for Fiscal Studies, why

are they all wrong?

It depends on

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the type of modelling. The modelling

that have been done by the Treasury

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have been based on gravity models,

which work on the basis of the

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nearness of the market and the size

of the economy you are trading with.

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These have been wrong in the past.

They predicted that if we joined the

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euro, trade would grow by 300%. That

was then revised down to 200%, but

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it is fantasyland. The model I am

working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,

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who has a record of getting these

things right. He was right about the

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exchange rate mechanism, right about

the euro.

Being right in the past

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doesn't mean you are right about the

future. Why do you think the

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Treasury will not pick up the same

numbers, if this is so obvious to

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you?

I think the Treasury was

humiliated by the errors in its

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forecast prior to Brexit, and is

trying to defend its position. The

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short-term economic consequences of

a vote to leave was one of the most

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dishonest documents to come out of

the Treasury, purely a piece of

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political propaganda. They are

wounded by that and sticking to the

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same script, rather than looking at

other forecasts and other experts.

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You think the governor of the Bank

of England is an enemy of Brexit,

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and it sounds like you think the

Treasury is opposed to it. As the

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Chancellor fallen under their spell

as well, and been persuaded to be an

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enemy of Brexit?

I have admiration

the Chancellor, but George Osborne,

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his predecessor, was the architect

of Project Fear. He was too close to

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the Bank of England and lost his

independence. That is what needs to

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change. It is an opportunity in the

budget for Philip Hammond to show he

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is putting aside the Treasury's

mistakes in the past. It is very

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encouraging what he is saying this

morning, about a more positive

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approach to Brexit.

Lord Lawson has

accused Philip Hammond of being very

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close to sabotage on Brexit. He says

we need a can-do man at the Treasury

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and not a prophet of doom.

I think

that Philip Hammond is an

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exceptionally intelligent man, a

very thoughtful man. It is not a bad

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thing to have a Chancellor who is

serious minded and steady, rather

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than one who is a showman and uses

the Exchequer to interfere in

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absolutely everything.

I have a lot

of confidence in the Chancellor.

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When you launched your budget for

Brexit, you said the government has

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to deliver the £350 million for the

NHS that was delivered during the

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referendum, even though you didn't

think that promise should have been

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made. Is that something they now

need to deliver wrong?

It is. This

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only happens once we have left.

Politicians have to recognise that

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voters don't look at the small print

of electoral policies. If you put

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£350 million on the side of a bus

and say it may be available for the

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NHS, it is reasonable for people to

think that is a promise. Brexit was

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won by the Leave campaign, so it it

is important that they deliver on

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that promise. Politicians must keep

faith with voters and deliver on

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implied promises, as well as ones

that are set out in detail.

The

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Cabinet will move on to talk about

the Brexit bill this week, and we

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understand they may need to come up

with more money to satisfy EU

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demands. The more money spent on

that is less money available for

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things like spending on the NHS. Are

you worried about the size of the

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exit bill?

You have your finger on

the important point. The government

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will have to choose whether to give

lots of money to the European Union,

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or whether to spend money on UK

public services, and that will be

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part of the negotiation. On all

these issues, it comes down to

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choice is the government makes. I

would encourage the government to

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choose our own domestic public

services rather than expensive

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schemes in continent or Europe.

Why

are you advocating that the

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government should spend up to £2.5

billion on a no deal scenario?

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It is important that we are ready to

leave in the event of no deal. If we

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left with no deal we would on

current figures still be saving the

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remains of 18 billion so we would be

saving 15 and a half billion against

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paying for the financial framework.

To show we're ready on day one would

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be money well spent and most would

be needed any way. We need to have

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new customs arrangements in place

even if it is not for a no deal

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situation.

There are suggestions

that the Government might back down

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on the idea of putting the time and

date of leaving the EU on the face

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of the bill. Would you be Exxon

certained if that was -- concerned

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if that was remove prd the bill?

It

is in Article 50, unless Article 50

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is extended by the Council of Europe

we leave on 20th March 2019 and it

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makes accepts that should be the

same in -- sense that should be in

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same in domestic law. But that is a

secondary concern from my point of

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view. It is important that we leave

on that date.

Stay there if you

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would.

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We're joined in the studio

by the former minister

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Stephen Hammond.

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He's no relation to the Chancellor,

but he is a member

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of the Treasury Select Committee

and he's one of the Tory MPs named

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as "Brexit mutineers"

by the Daily Telegraph

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this week - lucky him.

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I'm assured you're no relation to

the Chancellor. Let's just pick up

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on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying.

How important is it to you as a

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rebel that the Government does put

the date on.

I agree with Jacob it

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is in the Article 50 process, the

key reason it is important is the

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negotiations look like they're going

to be tricky and longer than we

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expected and it may well be that we

are still negotiating up until March

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2019. We could have a short couple

of weeks period of extension. Why do

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harm to the economy by falling out

on a precise time? If those

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negotiations need to be extended.

They won't go on for more than a

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couple of weeks, because there will

be elections in Europe in June 2019

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and there is no chance of a new

commission or Parliament dealing

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with this. Giving it flexibility and

with this flexibility the government

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said it wants flexibility in

negotiations, why give all the

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advantage to the other side? Part of

that was evidenced yesterday by

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somebody suggesting they will ask

for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to

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be suspended. That is as a result of

putting the date on the bill.

You

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did not agree with the Brexit

committee and think it is important

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that we set the date and time?

I

think it is perfectly reasonable to

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set the date and time and I think

these negotiations fill the time

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available. The United States and

Australia agreed a free trade deal

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between April 2003 and February

2004. These things don't need to be

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interm Knabl if both sides want to

agree. I think the British

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electorate would be very concerned

if nearly three years after the vote

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to leave, we still hadn't left. I

think most people expected that we

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would have left by now. The

negotiations realistically to get

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through the approval of the European

Parliament and so on need to be

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completed by at the end of next

year, going up to the last minute I

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don't think is real is tick.

To move

on to talk about a trade deal and

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getting that done, the EU need to

agree to move on and we need to

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settle the divorce, cabinet are

going to be talking about the amount

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that needs to be spent on that,

Stephen what manned, are you happy

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for the Government to offer more?

I

hope that the Government will stick

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to the Florence speech in terms of

ensuring that we fulfil our

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liabilities and obligations. I'm not

clear exactly whether that is 20

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billion or 40 billion and I'm not

sure the government is. If part of

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the divorce bill is then some

settlement for getting the trade

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deal, we will need to examine that

carefully.

Jacob Rees Mogg, is this

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that might spark another war in the

party if the cabinet suggest they're

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prepared to pay more?

I think we

need to go back to what you said,

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that the - the EU said they want us

to settle the money first. The

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Government doesn't need to follow

that. They need our money. If we

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don't pay any money for the final 21

months of the framework, the EU has

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about 20 billion pounds gap in its

finances and it has no legal

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requirement to borrow. So it

insolvents or the Germans and the

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others pay more. So our position on

money is very strong and we

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shouldn't fall into the trap of

thinking just because Mr Barnier

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said it it is as if he has received

tablets of stone like Moses, he has

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not.

There is a sense that the

Government feels a mo generous offer

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would set a good tone, the kind of

approach that Jacob Rees Mogg

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suggests would not make for smooth

relations.

It probably wouldn't. But

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we have to be clear what we are

paying for and what we are getting.

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No one is suggesting we should hand

over money without proper scrutiny.

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It may be appropriate to put money

to facilitate international trade to

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secure jobs. We have to be careful

about the analysis about what the

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scale and size of Brexit dividend is

and the size of payments will be.

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You mustn't confuse gross and net

and there is disagreement about some

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of the numbers.

On that, Jacob Rees

Mogg in his budget for Brexit

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suggests in five years time we would

have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do

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you think it is real is tick.

He is

using some analysis that has some

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flaws. It is predicting a price drop

in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff

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drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is

predicting huge productivity gains,

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the likes of which we have not seen

in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his

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view on modellers there is evidence

that they weren't and if you go into

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the detail of the analysis, some of

the data is 14 years out of date.

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Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being

hopelessly optimistic?

I don't think

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that right. I think the fall in

prices comes because you make the

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economy more competitive and you

take away tariffs which reduces the

0:21:540:21:58

price of food by 20%. That is a big

reduction. Bear in mind that the

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biggest tariffs hit food, clothing

and foot wear that, harm the poorest

0:22:050:22:09

in society the most. The gains from

productivity come from is in

0:22:090:22:16

additional tariffs. Leading to other

saving and further investment I

0:22:160:22:24

think the modelling done by the

professor is as good as modelling

0:22:240:22:27

can be. That doesn't mean it is

infallible. The failure of gravity

0:22:270:22:34

model is well known.

Michael Gove

was accused of auditioning for the

0:22:340:22:41

job of Chancellor by using long

words. Do you know any good long

0:22:410:22:47

economic words?

I don't think that

we want to get into this type of

0:22:470:22:51

business actually. I think all

Conservatives and Steven and I very

0:22:510:22:55

much agree on this, want to show as

united a front as we can manage.

0:22:550:23:01

There are differences on some

aspects of policy, but in terms of

0:23:010:23:05

individuals we want to stand

together and support the best

0:23:050:23:07

interests of the government.

Thank

you.

0:23:070:23:13

Brexit Secretary David Davis

was in Berlin this week trying

0:23:130:23:15

to win the support of business

leaders there for a comprehensive

0:23:150:23:18

free trade deal with the EU.

0:23:180:23:20

He warned them against putting

'politics above prosperity'

0:23:200:23:22

and reportedly got a bit

of a frosty reception.

0:23:220:23:27

Well, the former Labour MP

Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders

0:23:270:23:30

of the Vote Leave referendum

campaign.

0:23:300:23:32

We travelled with Gisela to Germany

to meet the business leaders

0:23:320:23:34

she says will help secure a good

trade deal for the UK.

0:23:340:23:37

Here's her film.

0:23:370:23:41

I was born and brought up

in this part of Germany,

0:23:470:23:50

and although I've lived in the UK

for the past 40 years,

0:23:500:23:53

and represented the constituency

of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20

0:23:530:23:58

years, my family still live here,

and I've kept many links.

0:23:580:24:02

I was chair of Vote Leave,

and together with only a handful

0:24:050:24:08

of other Labour MPs,

we campaigned to leave

0:24:080:24:11

the European Union because we

thought the country would be

0:24:110:24:13

better off outside.

0:24:130:24:15

It's hard to remember now, but back

in the 1970s, when we joined

0:24:150:24:18

the European Economic Community,

people thought that by joining

0:24:180:24:22

the club we would see the kind

of economic miracle Germany

0:24:220:24:26

experienced in the '70s back home.

0:24:260:24:29

The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder"

would come to Britain.

0:24:290:24:31

But, of course, it didn't.

0:24:310:24:36

Within a few short years

of the devastation of World War II,

0:24:380:24:41

Germany had emerged as

the largest economy in Europe.

0:24:410:24:44

Germany's extraordinary

success is down to

0:24:440:24:45

the pragmatism of its business.

0:24:450:24:50

German Mittelstand is family

dominated, forward-thinking,

0:24:500:24:55

long-term thinking, reliability,

are very important values.

0:24:550:25:01

Changing moods on a political

landscape and changing frameworks

0:25:010:25:04

are toxic for our way of doing

business, and we want

0:25:040:25:06

that to go away.

0:25:060:25:14

German business is not given

to making big political statements

0:25:140:25:18

out of step with government policy,

but talk to those in decision-making

0:25:180:25:21

positions, and it is clear

that they want to secure a good deal

0:25:210:25:24

with the United Kingdom.

0:25:240:25:27

BMW employs almost 90,000

people here in Germany,

0:25:270:25:30

and exports just under

1 million cars annually.

0:25:300:25:34

The UK is a vital market.

0:25:340:25:39

What we are really seeking right now

is more clarity, more certainty,

0:25:390:25:43

because in our cycle of investment,

cycle of development,

0:25:430:25:48

it's about a seven-year or so period

that we look at,

0:25:480:25:52

but we are now, of course, starting

to think about what comes next,

0:25:520:25:56

and what we need to see now

is what is going to be

0:25:560:25:59

the trading relationship,

how are the logistics going to look,

0:25:590:26:02

what is going to be

the requirements for people

0:26:020:26:04

moving across the continent?

0:26:040:26:07

Because all of these things

are important to us today.

0:26:070:26:09

And, by the way, they will be just

as important tomorrow.

0:26:090:26:13

Berlin is well aware that

if the European Commission

0:26:130:26:15

is allowed to put up trade barriers

against Britain, it will be

0:26:150:26:19

German business, German consumers

and German employees

0:26:190:26:21

who will suffer.

0:26:210:26:25

TRANSLATION:

I think it's very

important that we complete

0:26:250:26:27

the first phase successfully.

0:26:270:26:30

The first phase of the negotiations,

which looks at the financial

0:26:300:26:33

consequences of Great Britain

leaving the EU.

0:26:330:26:36

And then it's not a question

of punishment payments.

0:26:360:26:39

It's about when you are part

of a multilayer, contractual

0:26:390:26:42

obligation and you want to leave

that, then of course it takes

0:26:420:26:45

a whole lot of obligations

which you have to deal with,

0:26:450:26:48

so both sides are satisfied and can

live with the consequences.

0:26:480:26:57

It isn't everyone's interests

for the UK to part on good terms.

0:26:570:27:02

Of course there was going to be

upset when the UK voted to leave,

0:27:020:27:05

but creating uncertainty over

the terms of UK's exit will simply

0:27:050:27:09

have a disruptive effect

on exports to UK markets.

0:27:090:27:14

Far better to have a sensible,

amicable negotiation that results

0:27:140:27:17

both sides being able to trade

together and work

0:27:170:27:20

together post-Brexit.

0:27:200:27:26

Markus Krall is managing

director of Goetzpartners,

0:27:260:27:28

and heads the Financial

Institution Industry Group.

0:27:280:27:30

Is it true to say that,

if we negotiate Brexit well,

0:27:300:27:35

then a good Brexit can actually

strengthen the United Kingdom,

0:27:350:27:37

the European Union and Germany?

0:27:370:27:38

It's absolutely true.

0:27:380:27:41

I think that this

is about two things.

0:27:410:27:43

One, about proving that

free trade is possible

0:27:430:27:49

between a European Union that is

smaller and a former member country.

0:27:490:27:52

If you don't prove that free

trade is possible there,

0:27:520:27:55

then the question becomes,

what is Europe standing for?

0:27:550:27:59

Number two is, I also

believe the free trade,

0:27:590:28:04

free market and democratic and less

bureaucratic approach that Britain

0:28:040:28:08

has chosen as the path

into the future is a role

0:28:080:28:10

model for Europe.

0:28:100:28:13

The time has come both

for the United Kingdom

0:28:130:28:16

and for the EU to be more clear

about what kind of

0:28:160:28:19

deal we can achieve.

0:28:190:28:22

Both sides need to be bold.

0:28:220:28:24

As long as we remain open to free

trade and sensible co-operation,

0:28:240:28:27

we can arrive at something that

will benefit both sides.

0:28:270:28:32

But one thing's obvious -

if we are an open and free trading

0:28:320:28:36

economy, we've got one big

cheerleader on our side,

0:28:360:28:38

and that is German business.

0:28:380:28:44

That was Gisela Stuart

setting out her case

0:28:440:28:46

and we'll be hearing

from the opposite side

0:28:460:28:48

of the argument in the coming weeks.

0:28:480:28:50

Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio

now, as does Alastair Campbell.

0:28:500:28:53

He used to work for Tony Blair

in Number 10, set up

0:28:530:28:56

the New European Newspaper

to campaign against Brexit,

0:28:560:28:57

and is so pro-European that at this

year's Labour conference

0:28:570:29:00

he was heard playing Ode

to Joy on the bagpipes.

0:29:000:29:02

Welcome both of you.

0:29:020:29:07

We will start with your point in the

film, that you think the German

0:29:070:29:12

business once the EU to offer the UK

a generous deal because it is in

0:29:120:29:17

their interests, yet the president

of the German equivalent of the CBI

0:29:170:29:21

said that defending the single

market must be the priority for the

0:29:210:29:26

EU, and another says that the

cohesion of the remaining member

0:29:260:29:31

states remains the highest priority.

The president of the CBI just after

0:29:310:29:38

the referendum said that it would be

in nobody 's interest to introduce

0:29:380:29:43

tariffs and trade barriers. On the

UK side, I don't think there's a

0:29:430:29:51

full understanding that economic

interests are incredibly important,

0:29:510:29:55

that they are trying to cover

economic interests on the cohesion

0:29:550:30:02

of the 27. I think different

economic interests will raise the

0:30:020:30:06

head of different countries. The

German auto industry is as important

0:30:060:30:14

as the financial sector is here. The

banking crisis is far from over, but

0:30:140:30:20

the big riffs which were going on is

that the E U is losing its second

0:30:200:30:26

biggest net contributor. Countries

like Germany want a deal with the UK

0:30:260:30:30

that is a free open market. There

are other tensions in the EU that

0:30:300:30:37

wants to become more protectionist,

and that is a bad thing.

Looking at

0:30:370:30:41

the film there with the Jacob

Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what

0:30:410:30:49

side of leave you are, it is

delusional and all driven by wishful

0:30:490:30:54

thinking. You could find a

businessman who says Brexit will be

0:30:540:30:58

good for Germany. The vast bulk of

British businesses think this is a

0:30:580:31:02

disaster, as do the vast bulk of

European businesses. One of the

0:31:020:31:07

delusions on which they ran their

campaign is the idea that they need

0:31:070:31:11

us more than we need them. That is

not true.

Be you self about £80

0:31:110:31:18

billion more in goods and services

into the UK than we do to them, and

0:31:180:31:22

Germany has one of the biggest

deficits. It is in their interest.

0:31:220:31:27

Of course it is, but it is a myth

that they need us more than we need

0:31:270:31:33

them. The damage that will be done

to us, even with a good deal. Let's

0:31:330:31:39

be frank, where these negotiations

are, Theresa May is either going to

0:31:390:31:45

end up with a bad deal and dumber or

no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no

0:31:450:31:52

deal is a catastrophe.

You are

setting up ideas that which were not

0:31:520:31:59

there to begin with and knocking

them down. Delusional.

35 billion,

0:31:590:32:06

the Brexit bonus.

If we had a

referendum, it was a democratic

0:32:060:32:10

decision. I know you don't like it

and that a lot of business would

0:32:100:32:14

have preferred to stay with the

status quo. We have had the

0:32:140:32:19

referendum. Undermining political

institutions is in no one's

0:32:190:32:24

interests. It is functioning

democracies which lead to economic

0:32:240:32:30

stability.

Theresa May fought an

election Inc on a hard Brexit that

0:32:300:32:37

was rejected.

As we heard from BMW,

there is uncertainty for business.

0:32:370:32:50

There will be elections, European

elections, in 2019. There will be a

0:32:500:32:55

change of the Commission and the

parliament. We have a narrow window

0:32:550:33:00

to implement the mandate for the

referendum which Parliament voted

0:33:000:33:04

for. So rather than you undermining

this country, why don't you work

0:33:040:33:11

together to get the best deal?

Because we totally disagree.

You

0:33:110:33:15

don't want a good deal?

I'm in

favour of a good deal, and I could

0:33:150:33:21

give them some advice as to how they

get a good deal. First, you have a

0:33:210:33:27

cabinet that has an agreed strategy.

18 months in, they don't have that.

0:33:270:33:32

I am not undermining a deal. I am

continuing to pose questions about

0:33:320:33:38

what they are trying to do and how

they are trying to do it. This is

0:33:380:33:44

democracy. Democracy is the ability

for Parliament, which is not doing

0:33:440:33:49

its job properly, and the public, to

keep scrutinising, and if they want

0:33:490:33:53

to change their mind, having the

right to do that.

You were trying to

0:33:530:33:59

encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to

play hardball with the UK.

I am on

0:33:590:34:04

the side of the UK, and I am worried

that if we go down the path that we

0:34:040:34:09

are being taken down, and Theresa

May and Boris Johnson and the rest

0:34:090:34:14

of them, this shambolic path, we are

going to do fundamental, lasting

0:34:140:34:19

damage to the country we love. I

don't care about the Civil Aviation

0:34:190:34:23

Authority. I care about Britain. --

I don't care about the European

0:34:230:34:29

Union. If every lorry going into the

UK today was stopped for just two

0:34:290:34:38

minutes, we would create an instant

17 mile traffic jam. These people

0:34:380:34:44

just don't care...

I am not these

people! Let us not conflate... You

0:34:440:34:54

either decide that you are

implementing a democratic decision

0:34:540:34:58

of a referendum that was called and

over 17 million voted.

You will not

0:34:580:35:03

stop me debating it. Just as Nigel

Farage...

Stop talking about Nigel

0:35:030:35:12

Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not

Nigel Farage. There is no desire in

0:35:120:35:23

Germany to punish the United

Kingdom.

They are behaving

0:35:230:35:28

reasonably.

There is a battle of

protectionism and free market going

0:35:280:35:32

on. If we implement this properly,

give businesses the kind of

0:35:320:35:38

incentives they want, we can get a

good deal. So you want a bad deal?

0:35:380:35:44

You are driven by wishful thinking.

Gisela Stuart, you are saying that

0:35:440:35:51

business will intervene to prevent

things like tariffs being put in

0:35:510:35:55

place? They are leaving it a bit

late to put pressure on.

You will

0:35:550:35:59

find that business is laying out the

kind of things they need to get

0:35:590:36:03

those deals. I can find as much

fault with the speed of the

0:36:030:36:08

progress, but what I really do

resent is that you are actually

0:36:080:36:12

encouraging other countries to

undermine...

Know I am not! I spoke

0:36:120:36:21

out in support of the Irish

Taoiseach because I spent a lot of

0:36:210:36:24

time with Tony Blair and his team on

the Good Friday Agreement. The

0:36:240:36:28

people who are driving this hard

Brexit without thinking it through,

0:36:280:36:32

still no answer on how you do Brexit

in our island without a hard border.

0:36:320:36:38

I think the Irish Taoiseach is right

to call out the government on the

0:36:380:36:46

incompetence and the fact they have

not thought it through.

You accept

0:36:460:36:50

the result of the referendum and the

fact that we will be leaving the EU?

0:36:500:36:55

I accept the result of the

referendum, but I do not accept that

0:36:550:37:00

the country will definitely leave,

because the country is entitled to

0:37:000:37:04

change its mind. As the chaos and

costs mount, the public is entitled

0:37:040:37:09

to change its mind and will change

its mind.

There is no evidence at

0:37:090:37:15

the moment.

Come out with me!

Allow

me to finish the sentence. There is

0:37:150:37:24

a changing of mind happening, a

crystallisation. Unlike you, I have

0:37:240:37:30

fought five elections and I have won

five elections. I have probably

0:37:300:37:36

spoken to more people like you.

You

may do, I'm just saying, come out on

0:37:360:37:41

the road with me...

40% of the

population in the middle just want

0:37:410:37:47

us to get on with it. What that film

showed is that if you want to make

0:37:470:37:53

it a self-fulfilling prophecy that

it's a disaster, which I don't. I

0:37:530:37:58

want to implement a deal that is

good for British jobs. The rest of

0:37:580:38:04

the world is changing in terms of

technology. Currently, Germany

0:38:040:38:11

hasn't even got a government, and

nobody is laughing about that.

And

0:38:110:38:17

they are stable without a

government!

Let's leave it there.

0:38:170:38:21

It's coming up to 11.40,

you're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:38:210:38:24

Coming up on the programme,

we'll be looking at the latest

0:38:240:38:26

opinion polls and we'll bring

you the results of our moodbox

0:38:260:38:29

asking whether Phllip Hammond

or John McDonnell should be running

0:38:290:38:31

the economy.

0:38:311:01:33

Philip Hammond will deliver his

Budget on Wednesday -

1:01:401:01:43

he's moved it to the Autumn

if you remember - and he'll be

1:01:431:01:46

hoping it can help re-define

the Government in the eyes

1:01:461:01:48

of the public.

1:01:481:01:49

But when it comes to

the economy, do people trust

1:01:491:01:53

the Conservatives, or Labour?

1:01:531:01:54

Here's Ellie Price

with the moodbox.

1:01:541:01:59

MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere

by Talking Heads.

1:01:591:02:07

All eyes will be on the Chancellor

this week as we find out

1:02:071:02:10

what he has been cooking

up in his Budget.

1:02:101:02:12

So we have pulled off the A1

near Peterborough to ask people here

1:02:121:02:16

who they trust with the economy -

is it the Chancellor,

1:02:161:02:18

Philip Hammond, or is it

Labour's John McDonnell?

1:02:181:02:25

No 7.

1:02:251:02:28

Which one's Tory?

1:02:281:02:34

I voted Conservative

for the last two

1:02:401:02:42

elections, don't feel very confident

now, so I'm going to swap.

1:02:421:02:46

If I said to you which

of these characters

1:02:461:02:48

would you trust with the economy,

what would you say?

1:02:481:02:51

The one who's currently

running it, because they

1:02:511:02:53

seem to be bringing

the deficit down.

1:02:531:02:54

Labour.

1:02:541:02:55

Why?

1:02:551:02:56

Because I'm an NHS worker.

1:02:561:02:59

For me, it's just about

spending, public spending.

1:02:591:03:02

Labour always overspend.

1:03:021:03:07

John McDonnell, I think

capitalism as we know it is tanked

1:03:071:03:13

and I think we need

a radical re-think.

1:03:131:03:18

Broken his egg, who do you trust

more on the economy?

1:03:181:03:21

No one.

1:03:211:03:22

Why?

1:03:221:03:24

Because they never come up trumps

with anything that they

1:03:241:03:30

reckon they're going to do.

1:03:301:03:31

If I had to make you

choose one of them?

1:03:311:03:33

The man that's there, Hammond.

1:03:331:03:35

I wouldn't trust

Philip Hammond with a

1:03:351:03:37

bag of marbles or a plastic ball!

1:03:371:03:42

Hello, Bob.

1:03:421:03:43

Oh, hello.

1:03:431:03:45

Who do you trust

more on the economy?

1:03:451:03:46

Oh, the Conservatives.

1:03:461:03:47

Do you?

Why's that?

1:03:471:03:49

I just think they're better

for the small businessman.

1:03:491:03:52

We need a Maggie or

a Winston Churchill,

1:03:521:03:54

somebody in there with

balls to say, right,

1:03:541:03:57

that's the direction

we are

1:03:571:03:58

going in, that's what

we are going to do.

1:03:581:04:00

I've got balls!

1:04:001:04:02

What are you doing?

1:04:021:04:04

Putting balls in holes

by the look of it!

1:04:041:04:11

I suppose the lesser of the two

evils is anything but Tory,

1:04:111:04:14

but I say that without a great

deal of conviction.

1:04:141:04:16

Having grown up in the '70s

with all the rubbish on the

1:04:161:04:19

streets, the strikes, the unions.

1:04:191:04:21

Re-nationalisation and they're

going to spend a lot of money

1:04:211:04:24

and increase taxes and it will pull

the country down.

1:04:241:04:30

I've seen an awful loft of all-day

breakfasts today, but it

1:04:301:04:33

is clearing up time here

at the diner and time

1:04:331:04:37

to reveal the Moodbox.

1:04:371:04:39

Take it away, Tim.

1:04:391:04:40

As you can say it was

a close-run thing, but

1:04:401:04:43

like any fiscally responsible

Chancellor, I've done my maths and

1:04:431:04:45

counted and Philip Hammond got six

more votes than John McDonnell.

1:04:451:04:52

Oh, chip, thank you very much!

1:04:521:04:56

That was Ellie and the entirely

unscientific Moodbox,

1:04:561:04:58

at the Stibbington diner near

Peterborough.

1:04:581:05:01

But for a slightly more scientific

understanding of how the public view

1:05:011:05:04

the parties on this and other

issues, let's have a look

1:05:041:05:06

at some recent polling.

1:05:061:05:08

Here's where the Conservatives

and Labour stood on the economy back

1:05:081:05:10

when the Prime Minister called

the snap election in April,

1:05:101:05:14

when the Conservatives had a big

lead, as they did in many

1:05:141:05:17

other areas.

1:05:171:05:18

The most recent poll by the same

company reckoned Labour had narrowed

1:05:181:05:22

the gap significantly,

as they have in other areas,

1:05:221:05:24

although they're still 10 points

behind the Tories on this issue.

1:05:241:05:29

And there was another survey much

discussed at Westminster this week,

1:05:291:05:33

showing that while the gap

between Theresa May

1:05:331:05:38

and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed

drastically since that pre-election

1:05:381:05:40

period, Mrs May is,

despite her many problems,

1:05:401:05:42

still pretty much level-pegging

in polling terms or

1:05:421:05:44

even slightly ahead.

1:05:441:05:45

And when it comes to how

people intend to vote

1:05:451:05:48

while the Tories are behind,

there's no sign of a

1:05:481:05:50

big Labour lead yet.

1:05:501:05:52

Tony Blair thinks that,

given the current "mess"

1:05:521:05:54

inside the Government,

Jeremy Corbyn's party should be

1:05:541:05:58

10 or 15 points ahead.

1:05:581:06:01

Well, many in Labour will find it

easy to dismiss both Tony Blair

1:06:011:06:04

and the opinion polls, as they both

called the last election entirely

1:06:041:06:07

wrong, so what if anything do

these polls tell us?

1:06:071:06:14

Let's turn to our expert panel.

Labour are now eight points on the

1:06:141:06:22

economy, according to a poll. Why is

there a gap between Labour and the

1:06:221:06:27

Tories?

There seems to be a

deep-seated reservation in the minds

1:06:271:06:33

of many voters. They look at Jeremy

Corbyn and John McDonnell and

1:06:331:06:36

imagine them in charge of the

country, the finances, national

1:06:361:06:42

security, and think... It is

unfashionable to point out in many

1:06:421:06:45

circles that Labour did not win the

last election, and it didn't win it

1:06:451:06:50

for that kind of reason. Jeremy

Corbyn is very good at attracting

1:06:501:06:56

and inspiring young people and

people who had not voted before. We

1:06:561:07:01

underestimated his capacity to do

that. But he wasn't great at turning

1:07:011:07:08

Tories to Labour, or sealing off

those final reservations. The

1:07:081:07:13

government have had a shambolic few

weeks. We are tripping over

1:07:131:07:17

resigning a cabinet ministers. They

are fighting like ferrets. A lot of

1:07:171:07:21

people are having a really tough

time and looking at the government

1:07:211:07:24

to help them, and are unimpressed

with what they see. But there seems

1:07:241:07:29

to be a final fence that Corbyn does

not seem to be able to get over.

1:07:291:07:36

Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour

should be 15 or 20 points ahead?

I

1:07:361:07:41

think he's completely wrong, and is

revealing he is out of date. I think

1:07:411:07:46

Labour are in a really good

position. If you look at what they

1:07:461:07:49

have achieved in the last year,

going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn

1:07:491:07:55

had just managed to avoid, had to

re-fight Labour leadership contest.

1:07:551:08:01

They were 20 points behind. Theresa

May was at the top of her game.

1:08:011:08:08

Through the general election and

beyond it, they have continued to

1:08:081:08:12

build their movement. They are very

effective on social media. I think

1:08:121:08:17

they are in a strong position, and

they need about 60 seats to win the

1:08:171:08:22

next general election. They will

probably start with 25 of those. The

1:08:221:08:28

fact that they are closing the gap

on the economy suggests that a lot

1:08:281:08:31

of voters are now giving them a

chance or a hearing, which they

1:08:311:08:36

certainly were not getting a year

ago. I think they have done very

1:08:361:08:40

well.

Can they be confident with a

slim lead against the government?

I

1:08:401:08:46

am slightly more with Tony Blair

than with Iain. This goes back to

1:08:461:08:51

that very general election result. A

huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy

1:08:511:08:58

Corbyn. If you asked that same 40%

of people today, do you want Jeremy

1:08:581:09:06

Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where

you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn

1:09:061:09:09

to lead the British governmentanswer

is no, because Theresa May still,

1:09:091:09:15

despite the fact she is presiding

over a shambolic cabinet, she has

1:09:151:09:19

the most support for Prime Minister.

The last general election may have

1:09:191:09:26

just been a giant by-election,

because everyone was so short that

1:09:261:09:32

Theresa May would get in.

The

Chancellor Philip Hammond gave

1:09:321:09:36

Labour a bit of a gift, when he

said, there were not any unemployed

1:09:361:09:43

people in Britain. A slip of the

tongue. Was that damaging?

You have

1:09:431:09:49

to look at the context he was saying

it in, which will not be the context

1:09:491:09:53

of the Facebook meme you will get

shortly. He was asked about future

1:09:531:10:01

unemployment, and he was saying that

when technological advances came,

1:10:011:10:12

unemployment didn't materialise.

They would not be able to use that

1:10:121:10:17

against him so easily if it didn't

have something that people think

1:10:171:10:22

about the Conservative government,

which is that they are out of touch,

1:10:221:10:25

they have no idea about some people,

that they refuse to see what they

1:10:251:10:29

have done. People have that idea

about the Conservatives, so to drop

1:10:291:10:34

a bit of a clanger in that regard...

The budget is on Wednesday, and also

1:10:341:10:41

this week, the Brexit committee will

be meeting. What will they be

1:10:411:10:44

talking about and why does it

matter?

What Stephen Hammond said to

1:10:441:10:50

you a few moments ago was

fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be

1:10:501:10:53

the big meeting. It is the

negotiations committee. Nine or so

1:10:531:10:59

ministers have recently been

included in that, like Michael Gove.

1:10:591:11:02

They are going to be talking about

the money, precisely how much they

1:11:021:11:07

offer in two weeks' time to meet

this deadline in the December

1:11:071:11:12

council for phase two. Michael Gove

and Boris Johnson want to add in

1:11:121:11:16

conditions. They want to say, we

will give you this as long as we get

1:11:161:11:21

that. What was fascinating with

Stephen Hammond just now was that he

1:11:211:11:26

revealed that it wasn't just the

Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a

1:11:261:11:29

more precise definition of what we

are going for, it is the remainers

1:11:291:11:39

as well.

In the heart of the

government, David Davis is trying to

1:11:391:11:44

keep the bill as low as possible,

possibly around 30%. The divorce

1:11:441:11:52

Bill and future liabilities. Some in

the civil service have suggested

1:11:521:11:58

that it has to be 40 or above. What

it reveals to me is really, it's

1:11:581:12:05

another function of Britain not

really having a proper Prime

1:12:051:12:09

Minister. In normal circumstances,

of course the Cabinet is divided. A

1:12:091:12:14

strong leader would say, right, this

is what is happening. This is where

1:12:141:12:18

we are going. We will call it 35 or

40 billion. We will save to the

1:12:181:12:24

European Union, there is the check,

but it will not have a signature on

1:12:241:12:28

it until we are satisfied with the

next

1:12:281:12:41

stage. The government is hampered by

the lack of a strong personality who

1:12:471:12:50

could do that, make a political play

with other European leaders that

1:12:501:12:52

might break the deadlock.

Presumably

that is why the full Cabinet have

1:12:521:12:55

not discussed what the future Brexit

deal will be.

That is the

1:12:551:12:57

astonishing thing. There has been no

sort of vision of what Britain is

1:12:571:13:00

going to look like after Brexit. We

have got down in what the

1:13:001:13:04

negotiation position for tomorrow

will be. What does it look like in

1:13:041:13:08

terms of immigration, trade with the

rest of the world, what life will

1:13:081:13:11

look like for ordinarily... Ordinary

people?

There are visions for this,

1:13:111:13:17

but they will not agree on one. Is

there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet

1:13:171:13:22

Minister who could have one single

vision without them all ripping each

1:13:221:13:26

other's heads off? Probably not.

Thank you.

1:13:261:13:31

That's all for today.

1:13:311:13:32

Join me again next Sunday

at 11.00 here on BBC One.

1:13:321:13:35

Until then, bye bye.

1:13:351:13:38

The Chancellor's budget is coming.

1:14:041:14:05

Sarah Smith with the latest political news. Sarah discusses the upcoming budget with Conservative MPs Jacob Rees-Mogg and Stephen Hammond. She talks about Brexit with former spin doctor and now editor-at-large of the New European Alastair Campbell and prominent leave campaigner Gisela Stuart. The political panel consists of journalist Iain Martin, Gaby Hinsliff of The Guardian and Tom Newton Dunn of The Sun.


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