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with a win over Bournemouth. Now on BBC News it is time for this | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
week's Talking Business, here is Linda Yueh. | :00:00. | :00:07. | |
This quiet ski resort is transformed once a year when it hosts the | :00:08. | :00:10. | |
biggest meeting of top business and world leaders. | :00:11. | :00:18. | |
Here in Davos, Switzerland, at the World Economic Forum, I'm Linda | :00:19. | :00:19. | |
Yueh, and we're Talking Business. A warm welcome to the programme. | :00:20. | :00:42. | |
Davos is known for its mix of CEOs, policymakers and celebrities. We | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
have just such a line-up of newsmakers. They share what they see | :00:48. | :00:52. | |
as the biggest opportunities and challenges facing the global economy | :00:53. | :00:57. | |
and business in 2014. Before we hear from them, let me show you what it's | :00:58. | :01:03. | |
like behind-the-scenes at Davos. It's an unlikely spot for the | :01:04. | :01:05. | |
biggest meeting of business leaders in the world. Yet here in Davos, | :01:06. | :01:09. | |
Switzerland, 2,500 executives and world leaders congregate each year. | :01:10. | :01:16. | |
This year's theme, how to reshape the world. Whether it's by bus, | :01:17. | :01:22. | |
train or even helicopter, it's not just CEOs and finance ministers, but | :01:23. | :01:25. | |
academics and journalists who come here to find answers. When I was a | :01:26. | :01:31. | |
special adviser, I was always asked to propose concrete policy | :01:32. | :01:36. | |
solutions. But first, what does the head of WEF think reshaping the | :01:37. | :01:42. | |
world means? Reshaping means that the world is changing. We... The | :01:43. | :01:54. | |
world in ten years will look very differently from what it looks | :01:55. | :02:00. | |
today. Just look at the technological revolutions, look at | :02:01. | :02:02. | |
the whole question of the cyber world, look at three-dimensional | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
printing. And I could go on and on, where there is tremendous progress | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
made in biology, in medicine and so on. So we will be in a different | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
world, and we have to prepare for this world. | :02:13. | :02:15. | |
Preparations may be nearly finished, but the hard work is yet to begin. | :02:16. | :02:21. | |
There's going to be a lot of sessions talking about what the | :02:22. | :02:26. | |
reshaped world will look like. There are the issues of slow growth, high | :02:27. | :02:29. | |
unemployment, rising inequality and climate change, to name just a few. | :02:30. | :02:33. | |
Maybe there'll be a report, but usually there isn't, and that's why | :02:34. | :02:36. | |
Davos is frequently described as just being a talking shop. But then | :02:37. | :02:42. | |
again, when the talking is by leaders, the networking process can | :02:43. | :02:46. | |
be important. I've been invited to have drinks with a royal, dinner | :02:47. | :02:49. | |
with a billionaire and a fireside chat with a tech entrepreneur. Some | :02:50. | :02:53. | |
would say it's those conversations, rather than any concrete outcomes, | :02:54. | :02:59. | |
that matter to reshape the world. As with all such grand plans, only time | :03:00. | :03:04. | |
will tell. We first hear from Peter Sands, the | :03:05. | :03:07. | |
CEO of Standard Chartered, a British giant that's one of the largest | :03:08. | :03:11. | |
banks in the world with a strong presence in Asia and Africa. He | :03:12. | :03:14. | |
shared with me his views on what 2014 holds. I'd start by saying that | :03:15. | :03:21. | |
I'm looking at 2014 with a pretty positive view. The US is looking | :03:22. | :03:27. | |
pretty strong. China, I think, is go to deliver at least 7% growth. Japan | :03:28. | :03:32. | |
is not looking bad at all. And Europe, well, the least you could | :03:33. | :03:36. | |
say is it is not going backwards. It may not be growing fast, but it is | :03:37. | :03:40. | |
not going backwards, and in that backdrop, actually, I think 2014 | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
could be quite a positive year for the world economy. You ask about the | :03:44. | :03:49. | |
challenges. There are a multitude of different challenges. We've got a | :03:50. | :03:54. | |
huge amount of regulatory change going on in the banking industry, a | :03:55. | :03:57. | |
lot of policy, important elections happening across the world in 2014. | :03:58. | :04:03. | |
So there's no shortage of things going on. You mentioned there are a | :04:04. | :04:08. | |
lot of regulatory challenges. Is there a chance that a lot of the | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
regulatory changes in Europe is going to make it less competitive | :04:13. | :04:15. | |
than, say, other parts of the world? There has been a massive amount of | :04:16. | :04:18. | |
regulatory change, and one of the biggest challenges, and this is not | :04:19. | :04:21. | |
unique to Europe, but Europe is part of this, is the degree of | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
fragmentational difference. There was a huge amount of effort, early | :04:27. | :04:29. | |
on after the crisis through the Financial Stability Board, to have a | :04:30. | :04:32. | |
very co-ordinated and organised approach to changing banking | :04:33. | :04:35. | |
regulation, but we seem to have lost some of that coherence. And that | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
does create a danger, because it will drive a kind of deglobalisation | :04:41. | :04:43. | |
of financial markets, which I think will cost everybody. You are a | :04:44. | :04:49. | |
British bank, but you don't have a presence in British retail banking. | :04:50. | :04:55. | |
Would you consider doing that? Our history, our strategy is focused | :04:56. | :04:58. | |
on Asia, Africa and the Middle East. We are based in the UK, it a good | :04:59. | :05:02. | |
place from which to run an international bank, but we have no | :05:03. | :05:05. | |
plans to be involved in domestic business in the UK. Is there a | :05:06. | :05:11. | |
reason for that? I think the Government would be very keen if you | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
might be! We have huge growth opportunities in our markets, we | :05:17. | :05:19. | |
have big and exciting growth plans in China, India, Indonesia. And | :05:20. | :05:22. | |
also, that's where our history is, that's where we have deep | :05:23. | :05:24. | |
relationships, where we have deep knowledge of what's going on. We're | :05:25. | :05:29. | |
playing to our strengths. In terms of the emerging markets, larger | :05:30. | :05:32. | |
economies are now saying that the emerging economies are not so | :05:33. | :05:34. | |
exciting, they are back to thinking about the dull and old economies as | :05:35. | :05:40. | |
being where the money should go. Have they got it wrong? I think | :05:41. | :05:46. | |
economists are... Be very careful, Peter! I know, but economists are as | :05:47. | :05:53. | |
prone to fads as anyone else. And I don't think the realities of the | :05:54. | :05:56. | |
nature of the growth drivers in emerging markets have changed that | :05:57. | :05:59. | |
dramatically over the last 18 months. Maybe they were overhyped | :06:00. | :06:04. | |
before, but now the sort of gloom and doom about them is overdone as | :06:05. | :06:12. | |
well. And you seen that, I mean the number of people who been calling | :06:13. | :06:15. | |
the end to China's growth, and China seems remarkably immune to these | :06:16. | :06:23. | |
kind of predictions. So of course, of course there are challenges, | :06:24. | :06:26. | |
these are economies which are changing very dramatically, there | :06:27. | :06:28. | |
are huge issues around financial deepening, infrastructure, | :06:29. | :06:30. | |
governance, political change and all this stuff. So of course there will | :06:31. | :06:37. | |
be dislocations and bumps and all this sort of stuff. But we see the | :06:38. | :06:42. | |
opportunities in the emerging world, particularly in Asia, Africa and the | :06:43. | :06:45. | |
Middle East, the places we know well, as being very exciting. China, | :06:46. | :06:50. | |
of course, is a very big emerging economy. There's been a bit of | :06:51. | :06:53. | |
concern that the shadow banking system has become, well, somewhat of | :06:54. | :06:59. | |
a risk. You're very active in China, do you think there's a risk that | :07:00. | :07:04. | |
China could have a banking crisis? I think China will and is taking | :07:05. | :07:07. | |
action on the shadow banking sector, and it is a problem. One should | :07:08. | :07:13. | |
expect, if an economy grows that fast, you're going to get sort of | :07:14. | :07:18. | |
bubbles and distortions. It's not possible to do it all in a | :07:19. | :07:24. | |
completely smooth way. But I think what you're seeing, if you look at | :07:25. | :07:27. | |
the actions of the authorities around the shadow banking sector, | :07:28. | :07:29. | |
they're squeezing it and putting pressure on it, and it will change. | :07:30. | :07:33. | |
From our perspective, we have no exposure to it, we're not involved | :07:34. | :07:37. | |
in it, and we still see China as a very significant opportunity for the | :07:38. | :07:42. | |
bank. You mentioned that your areas of expansion, where you are more | :07:43. | :07:45. | |
interested in, are Asia, Africa, the Middle East. Any plans to expand, | :07:46. | :07:53. | |
Latin America, North America? We are very clearly focused on Asia, Africa | :07:54. | :07:59. | |
and the Middle East. We have over 150 years of history in these | :08:00. | :08:02. | |
markets, we really understand them, we have fantastic client | :08:03. | :08:03. | |
relationships, and they offer massive opportunities for growth. | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
Now, we are growing in Europe and the Americas, both Latin America and | :08:09. | :08:11. | |
North America, but what we're doing there is enabling the trade and | :08:12. | :08:13. | |
investment flows between those parts of the world and Asia, Africa and | :08:14. | :08:22. | |
the Middle East. So we're not trying to do domestic business in those | :08:23. | :08:25. | |
parts of the world, but there's an enormous amount of commodity trade | :08:26. | :08:28. | |
and all sorts of types of trade and investment that we are involved in. | :08:29. | :08:34. | |
That was Peter Sands, CEO of Standard Chartered. What does the | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
view look like from one of India's biggest corporations? I asked | :08:40. | :08:42. | |
Infosys CEO SD Shibulal about his latest technology investment in | :08:43. | :08:50. | |
India. I think technology is becoming an | :08:51. | :08:53. | |
enabler today more than anything else in the world. If you look at | :08:54. | :08:59. | |
the history of technology, it started with data, and now it is | :09:00. | :09:02. | |
about insight and intelligence. You are trying to get insight out of | :09:03. | :09:05. | |
your data, your information, using it for your business purposes. So | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
for example, some of the things which we do in India, we have a | :09:10. | :09:14. | |
trading platform called TradeEdge. This platform allows providers, | :09:15. | :09:16. | |
manufacturers, to get insight into their sales in emerging countries. | :09:17. | :09:31. | |
The las- mile sales, for example how many pieces of candy have been sold | :09:32. | :09:35. | |
in India or in China. And then that information can be fed back, and | :09:36. | :09:38. | |
that can create the demand chain that can create insights into how | :09:39. | :09:41. | |
the sales are flowing. We have launched a platform which is meant | :09:42. | :09:43. | |
for financial inclusion for the bottom of the pyramid. These are | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
people who are not part of the banking system. We process income | :09:49. | :09:53. | |
tax returns in India, so we can do quite a lot of that kind of work, | :09:54. | :09:57. | |
where the intelligence being used either creates insight or efficiency | :09:58. | :10:02. | |
and productivity. One of the things about introducing technology to a | :10:03. | :10:05. | |
low income country is, some may say, it isn't that profitable. What would | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
you say to that? I think it's an opportunity and a challenge, because | :10:12. | :10:14. | |
in India, if you want to do something, it has to cost 100th of | :10:15. | :10:20. | |
what it would elsewhere. If you look at ICICI Bank, it uses our platform | :10:21. | :10:25. | |
Finacle, and their cost of a transaction, the size is one tenth | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
of the rest of the world. And the cost of the attraction has to be | :10:30. | :10:33. | |
100th of what it is in the rest of the world to make a profit. So it | :10:34. | :10:37. | |
creates an opportunity for what I call frugal innovation, innovation | :10:38. | :10:42. | |
which is affordable, durable and leaner. See, the world has been | :10:43. | :10:47. | |
doing very difficult things, faster, smarter and expensive, but countries | :10:48. | :10:51. | |
like India need innovation which is affordable, durable, Lena, and that | :10:52. | :10:57. | |
is an opportunity. One of the things about tech companies is that it is | :10:58. | :11:00. | |
hard to stay a head of the game, what is your secret? Innovation is | :11:01. | :11:06. | |
the secret, we always believe we have to be agile, nimble, we show is | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
beat, and you have to be innovative in everything that you do. Whether | :11:12. | :11:15. | |
it is delivering products to our clients, or to employees, or even | :11:16. | :11:20. | |
doing things in India which have been done in the rest of the world | :11:21. | :11:25. | |
but never done in India. You are a global company with a good profit | :11:26. | :11:29. | |
forecast for this year, tell us about how you expect growth to be. | :11:30. | :11:37. | |
11.5-12% is a good increase from last year, approximately 5%, so this | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
is a good increase. We have added a number of clients this quarter, so | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
overall our clients are feeling a bit more confident than in the | :11:48. | :11:51. | |
past. At the same time, there is an apprehension because of the | :11:52. | :11:55. | |
challenges which they went through in the last two or three years. But | :11:56. | :11:59. | |
we are finding that our clients are more confident. A good forecast for | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
your performance this year, still a tough backdrop in India, tell us a | :12:05. | :12:08. | |
little bit about the scope of your business. | :12:09. | :12:15. | |
We need to remember that this is a global market. 97% of our revenue | :12:16. | :12:20. | |
comes from outside of India. Our market is 67% US and 25% the UK and | :12:21. | :12:26. | |
the continent. We are playing in a global market. Who is on to winning | :12:27. | :12:34. | |
the election? Only you can predict that. You worried? Is there any | :12:35. | :12:44. | |
concern? India has had multiple elections over the past 15 years. | :12:45. | :12:50. | |
But as I say, the direction has been the same. The country has been | :12:51. | :12:58. | |
focused on creating, bettering the quality of life for people. I expect | :12:59. | :13:01. | |
that to continue. Regardless of who wins? Yes. Before I bring you more | :13:02. | :13:10. | |
newsmakers, let me show you what a typical day is like here at the | :13:11. | :13:13. | |
World Economic Forum. Everyone stays in a pretty small town. And the way | :13:14. | :13:19. | |
to get around from one venue to another is to get on one of the | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
special shuttle buses. The thing about the buses is that you never | :13:24. | :13:34. | |
know who you might meet on board. I hope the next person we picked up | :13:35. | :13:40. | |
his match Damon -- the next person we pick up is Matt Damon or George | :13:41. | :13:45. | |
Clooney. Or the Central bank president, Mario Draghi. Hello. I am | :13:46. | :13:54. | |
Linda Yueh. I am Tony Hyams. What are you doing here? I am with the | :13:55. | :14:02. | |
Australian Commonwealth superannuation Corporation. I am | :14:03. | :14:07. | |
chairman of that fund. It is a large pension fund in Australia. What do | :14:08. | :14:13. | |
you hope to do at the World Economic Forum? In particular, we are | :14:14. | :14:17. | |
interested in long-term investment and the role of business. And also | :14:18. | :14:22. | |
all sorts of other ideas and different perspectives. Finally, | :14:23. | :14:28. | |
what is the best party you have been invited to? There are a couple this | :14:29. | :14:33. | |
evening and we will see if we can make it. Thank you very much. | :14:34. | :14:39. | |
Meeting people is one of the reasons why a lot of people come to the | :14:40. | :14:43. | |
World Economic Forum. It is almost unique in that you can meet any | :14:44. | :14:46. | |
number of contacts for your business or policy that could be important. | :14:47. | :14:53. | |
It is the reason why 2500 delegates come to this very small ski resort | :14:54. | :14:59. | |
in the Swiss Alps. We have heard the perspective from the business world | :15:00. | :15:03. | |
but what do policymakers think? I caught up with the President of the | :15:04. | :15:08. | |
World Bank, who shared with me what he saw as the key risks of 2014. | :15:09. | :15:14. | |
Looking at it from the perspective of the emerging markets, the biggest | :15:15. | :15:22. | |
risk would be a bumpy ex-it from unconventional monetary is. -- exit. | :15:23. | :15:26. | |
When Benbow 90 made the announcement about the future capering, we saw a | :15:27. | :15:34. | |
bump in interest rates. It is not clear to what extent we have seen | :15:35. | :15:37. | |
these. We think we have seen between a third and a half. As long as it is | :15:38. | :15:43. | |
smooth, we think that emerging markets can respond, but if it | :15:44. | :15:49. | |
doesn't, a lot of capital could stop. That is the biggest risk from | :15:50. | :15:52. | |
what we see. I think in the Eurozone and also in southern Europe, there | :15:53. | :15:58. | |
are high levels of unemployment among young people. So there are | :15:59. | :16:01. | |
still big issues that we have to tackle, not to mention the banking | :16:02. | :16:04. | |
union, which is an issue we are watching closely. As you say, up to | :16:05. | :16:09. | |
half of the capital flow could actually leave emerging economies. I | :16:10. | :16:14. | |
am sure that that would be destabilising. That would be | :16:15. | :16:19. | |
destabilising. And that would be all we could do to respond to that. In | :16:20. | :16:24. | |
talking with the policymakers and leaders in the financial sector, | :16:25. | :16:30. | |
every intention is to taper as smoothly and over as longer period | :16:31. | :16:36. | |
as possible. Here and elsewhere, the talk is about slow growth rising | :16:37. | :16:40. | |
inequality. What can be done about this? The top 85 people in the world | :16:41. | :16:50. | |
control the same amount of wealth as the bottom 3.5 billion. The good | :16:51. | :16:54. | |
news is that many of those top 85 are there and are committed to | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
trying to reduce income inequality. But the good news is that there are | :16:59. | :17:02. | |
a bunch of things we can do right now that will help economies to grow | :17:03. | :17:07. | |
while at the same time being more inclusive. What I don't want to | :17:08. | :17:09. | |
happen is that we sit around nibbling hors d'oeuvres and | :17:10. | :17:14. | |
contemplating inequality. The message we put out is that yes, it | :17:15. | :17:18. | |
is a huge problem and we know that there are things that we can do | :17:19. | :17:21. | |
right now to grow our economy and reduce inequality. That was Jim Yong | :17:22. | :17:29. | |
Kim. We have heard from a top policymaker and Chief Executive is. | :17:30. | :17:32. | |
Now it is time to get the expert economic view on what 2014 holes. I | :17:33. | :17:37. | |
caught up with one of the best-known economists in the world, Nouriel | :17:38. | :17:42. | |
Roubini, a Professor at New York University, and asked him what he | :17:43. | :17:45. | |
thought was the biggest challenge for 2014. The biggest challenge is | :17:46. | :17:51. | |
coming from the fact that the still are a lot of risks in the economy. | :17:52. | :17:57. | |
The Eurozone crisis is not over. The could be political tension in the | :17:58. | :18:02. | |
Eurozone. There are certainly crises in the US. -- crisis mag. -- is | :18:03. | :18:10. | |
there are certainly crises. In China, there is the question of a | :18:11. | :18:17. | |
soft landing. And there is also geopolitical risks, but we will see | :18:18. | :18:24. | |
whether a permanent agreement can be reached with Iran. There are | :18:25. | :18:29. | |
tensions territorially between China and Japan which could eventually | :18:30. | :18:34. | |
lead to a flare-up and military confrontation. Those are some of the | :18:35. | :18:38. | |
main risks. How does the US economy look to you? The US economy is | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
improving and growth is strong. There is less of a fiscal drag. | :18:44. | :18:49. | |
There is shoring up of manufacturing and there is some strong creation of | :18:50. | :18:56. | |
jobs. There are also risks because there is still gridlock in Congress | :18:57. | :19:00. | |
and there will be shut downs on fiscal issues because of the lack of | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
agreement between Democrats and Republicans. Important structural | :19:06. | :19:11. | |
reforms will have to be undertaken, like structural tax reform and | :19:12. | :19:13. | |
reforming entitlements like social security and health care. Unless the | :19:14. | :19:18. | |
US does these things, the potential growth could be constrained. What is | :19:19. | :19:27. | |
your one big prediction for 2014? Probably the commodities super | :19:28. | :19:34. | |
cycle, the boost in commodities, precious metals, that could be over. | :19:35. | :19:40. | |
The commodity price might correct worldwide. China is slowing down and | :19:41. | :19:47. | |
the growth model will be less. For other commodities, there are new | :19:48. | :19:52. | |
suppliers. After years of investment into new capacity. That will | :19:53. | :19:56. | |
dampen, because of shale gas and so on, energy supply. And in the case | :19:57. | :20:06. | |
of gold, the fact that gold prices have been boosted, gold has now been | :20:07. | :20:14. | |
downwardly corrected. That was Nouriel Roubini. As I said earlier, | :20:15. | :20:17. | |
you never know who you will talk to at divorce. I am about to go and | :20:18. | :20:21. | |
talk to Matt Damon and Gary Whyte about their water charity, Bono. -- | :20:22. | :20:30. | |
Davos. Good to meet you both. Matt Damon, | :20:31. | :20:36. | |
your day job is that you are an actor. Why have you come to the | :20:37. | :20:40. | |
World Economic Forum? Why did you choose this place to talk about your | :20:41. | :20:45. | |
charity? Well, we felt that it was a good laugh on to talk about what, | :20:46. | :20:50. | |
and the work we are doing with water.org. -- talk about water. | :20:51. | :20:56. | |
Water is on the agenda at a forum like this but they tend to look at | :20:57. | :21:01. | |
water security and scarcity. We want to make sure that universal access | :21:02. | :21:07. | |
to safe water is in the conversation. What do you hope to | :21:08. | :21:14. | |
achieve here? What do you hope to get out of it? First and foremost, | :21:15. | :21:19. | |
to elevate the issue on the agenda. There is water on the agenda here | :21:20. | :21:25. | |
which draws us, but oftentimes it is about this looming water crisis, | :21:26. | :21:30. | |
about water for agriculture or water for industry. And those are | :21:31. | :21:34. | |
important things but the problem is that the 718 all you people get lost | :21:35. | :21:39. | |
in the shuffle. So the crisis for them is now, not looming. -- 780,000 | :21:40. | :21:46. | |
people. We want to be the voice of the pure and help them to get to the | :21:47. | :21:52. | |
front of the line, instead of being afraid that the water crisis is so | :21:53. | :21:55. | |
great that we cannot afford water to connect them. There are many | :21:56. | :21:59. | |
charitable causes you could support. Why water? There is limited time, | :22:00. | :22:08. | |
and there are many wonderful causes, but water seemed to underpin all of | :22:09. | :22:12. | |
the problems of poverty. It is so essential to life, and it is | :22:13. | :22:22. | |
something that as I read more about it, and travelled more, I understood | :22:23. | :22:27. | |
the complexity of it, if fascinated me. It is very complex and endlessly | :22:28. | :22:32. | |
interesting. It is our goal to put ourselves out of business but our | :22:33. | :22:35. | |
mission statement is that we envision the day when everyone can | :22:36. | :22:39. | |
access a safe drink of water and adequate sanitation. Who are you | :22:40. | :22:47. | |
most looking for to meeting? Lets see, I have met some wonderful | :22:48. | :22:54. | |
people. I saw Bill Gates earlier. Another Harvard dropout. That was | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
nice. And I saw the president of Hertford, who is a friend. That was | :22:59. | :23:04. | |
nice. -- harboured. Hanging out with bone of was fun. -- Bono. Top | :23:05. | :23:13. | |
business leaders and policymakers are more optimistic about this year | :23:14. | :23:15. | |
than at any time since the global crisis. But there are is still a lot | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
that keeps them awake at night including the causes of slow growth | :23:21. | :23:24. | |
and its consequences. That is all we have time for this week. Check out | :23:25. | :23:31. | |
our website and me on Twitter. And join us next week for more talking | :23:32. | :23:33. | |
business. Today we saw some intense | :23:34. | :23:44. | |
thunderstorms moving south-east across the country. While there is a | :23:45. | :23:48. | |
bit of a lull out there at the moment, there is more severe weather | :23:49. | :23:52. | |
to come. Concentrating on today, you can see that line of blue and | :23:53. | :23:55. | |
green, our thunderstorms cleaving eastwards. Still a scattering of | :23:56. | :24:02. | |
shower the Rumack to the north. But the forecast contains heavy rain, | :24:03. | :24:03. | |
wind and | :24:04. | :24:04. |