29/03/2016 The Papers

Hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

With me are the Times Columnist Tim Montgomerie,

and John Kampfner, the CEO of the Creative Industries Federation.

Tomorrow's front pages, starting with warnings over

Guardian lead with Brexit dangers. They say it could increase mortgage

costs. Warnings over buy-to-let and a

extraordinary picture of a man posing with the man who allegedly

hijacked the flight today. The times has that photo again, leading with

what hay call a clamp-down on buy-to-let mortgage, the Sun has

that photo of that man, the paper reports him saying he is not sure

why he posed for the photo. Britain in the EU is the main story

for the Daily Mail. It says more than 1.6 million migrants moved to

the UK in less than a decade. And the Express leads with the

referendum debate. It claims that UK benefits are being spent on what it

calls palaces in Romania. And Metro carries allegation about

the singer Elton John, claims he vehemently denies. And New Day

reports a call to put qualified teachers in every children's

nursery. So, there we are. Those are the

front-page, Tim and John, welcome. Let us kick off with that photo,

Tim, that is in the Telegraph, one of the more extraordinary photos on

the front-page I have seen in the last few weeks or months. It is

extraordinary, and you know, we can only presume that by the time this

photo was taken he realised that this suicide vest was a fake, it. It

is prominent on his stomach there. You would think you would be at

least be angry, that this guy had forced you to have this frightening

experience and you are... He has a big grin on his face. Extraordinary

grin. A cheesy grin, we were working out before, it couldn't be a selfie

because nobody is taking the picture, who took the picture? Was

it a member of the cabin crew or another passenger? Will he put it in

his holiday album. I don't think I have ever seen anything quite as

bonkers as that, and, it is incredibly humour aside, to go

through an Orr deal like that in the times we are live, after Brussels,

Paris and everything else, and somebody gets on a plane, with a

suicide vest, threatening to blow it up, leaving aside the security risks

and all that and you survive but your travel plans are completely

screwed up by it, then, you know, to find some purported humour. A lot of

questions at the end of the day. The day started with everybody thinking

this was a terrifying incident but didn't turn out to be quit as bad as

we thought. A lot of questions for Egyptian security. This was a fake,

but still to walk through even with a fake suicide vest is

extraordinary. Huge amounts of money have been put into try and

strengthen Egyptian airport security, following the Downing of

the Russian jet. There are stories in the paperers today saying VIP,

big chooses in Egyptian society still refuse to be checked an the

security officers continue feel confident enough to challenge them.

They feel they might be fired o their jobs are at risk, you can't

have security unless everybody is check I don't think this is a fake,

there weren't explosive, this wouldn't have been triggered by

normal security. This is concerning an unstable man was able to pull

this off. The times are leading with what is going to be the big story,

the Tata Steel closure, we are hearing this is from union source,

that Tata Steel are going o close their UK operations and that is

4,000 jobs. It is too late for most of The Papers to do with it

prominence. The Times have it up at the top. Well done. That is why I

asked you about it. When I used to do The Papers with Beth... I will

give you a fiver later. I mean, if you look at it in, in sort of broad

sweep historical terms, it is you know our steel industry was small,

and getting smaller still, almost sort of you know tiny sort of, you

know tokens of of what used to be a great industry. That said, according

to what I read about it before the unions backed by local MPs and

others were saying, all that was needed was some sort of two-year

stay, and the big issue, whether it is a UK Government issue, and much

criticism of Sajid Javid for not intervening or whether it is an EU

issue, the refusal of Governments not to do anything about Chinese

dump, you don't need to sound protectionist to protect an industry

that appeared to be run itself pretty well. There is this now mouse

glut of Chinese steel. Is there anything that any Government can do

about that? Well of course, the people tonight in Port Talbot who

are worried about their future, your heart goes out to them. Them. Tata

were losing ?300 million a year, they have done almost everything

they could do to save this plant. So every taxpayer in Britain, every

voter in Britain has to say is that the best use of ?300 million? It

could go to hospital, roads, school, it could go to train a new

generation of people in the industries that we will be employing

people in. John McDonnell suggested renationalisation of the British

Steel industry? If they are willing to pay that cost, and impose that on

other industry, deny it to other public service, there is always a

cost for doing these things and in the 1970s we subsidised car

industries, and all sorts of declining industry, and

unfortunately, it is not the natural advantage now of advanced economies

like Britain to compete with lower waged economies in other pars of the

world. We have to invest in the industries of for, where educated

workforces are the key, creative industries and that is our future,

unfortunately. Let us have a look a the Express, that I have got their

angle on it on page two, is that it is the European Union that have left

steel jobs under threat, you sense there, you know, in the run-up to

the referendum campaign... The Express, in particular, they don't

let any opportunity to slag off the EU, and go past them. Literally on

any day of the week you could find many anti-EU stories somewhere. If

someone's cat ran away it would be the fault of the EU commission.

There was much more of a sense of criticism you were reading in other

papers many month'sing a, of George Osborne and the Treasury o Mondays

ago. In the terms of some of The Papers kowtowing to China and not

making the case more vigorously. There was that period late last year

when he was in in China and the Chinese President was here, amid

huge fanfare for the state visit, almost, it was please buy up any of

our state asset, we will flog our utility, railways, whatever. In a

way other countries don't do. Since we have moved on the Brexit or the

referendum campaign, any way. Let us talk about the Guardian's lead story

which is a Bank of England committee warning about an issue a warning

over Brexit, Brexit danger, bank issues stark warnings. I think I

think on Sunday the Health Secretary said the NHS would be in crisis, we

had Nicky Morgan talking about a lost generation. I think this is

twaddle. This is scaremongering, this is better to the the people who

want to stay in the European Union. I think the Bank of England will be

sown by more people as dispassionate, more independent

minded. Not part of Project Fear. Contactually. I think there is a

scepticism about the financial sector, big bank, the city issuing

warnings, people think it is self-serving, lots of people

remember how the CBI I and banks said if Britain didn't join the euro

it would be a disaster, we were fortunate to stay out of that

unemployment creating machines, but this will be, this will be a helpful

on the margins. Do you think people will end up confuse by the

statistics from the two sides? I mean, I mean, the phrase, a vote to

leave risks causing a run on sterling, a end cred it crunch and

higher interest rates for mortgage payers and businesses, if that

message gets through, more than Tim was sayings, some of the more

generalise phrase, if it comes down to the pocket book as the Americans

would say, and people strongly believe it, then it will have an

impact on the result. To me, what is interesting, is that the remain

campaign very rarely make the positive case. There is always a

double negative at the moment, if we leave terrible things will happen,

and that may be true, but I also think, I am strongly in favour of

staying, and I think there are positive cases to be made but the

Government and the in campaign appears to have lost its mojo. We

haven't got time to go through the positive sides so we will talk about

the FT. There is another angle on the Brexit debate, is that the Bank

of America are saying this is a word that can't be used by their senior

staff when they are talking to clients. We saw, when the Scottish

referendum result was so close, some big corporate companies intervened

to try and argue for Scotland to say in the UK, and they got burned by

it. A lot of you know, enthusiastic Scottish Nationalists recented that

a company they were willing to shop at would take this view. People see

how divided the country is, the opinion polls are 50-50, banks,

investors, shops don't want to get on the wrong side of the public,

and... So they are being more careful. This is causing

consternation in Downing Street, the fact that big blue chip companies

are not coming out and they are not saying what Downing Street suspects

they believe, which is leaving would be dangerous, and they are hedging

their bets, in that classic way that companies do. If banks like this

don't make the case or more importantly, if companies and others

don't make the care, either to employees, or more broadly, if they

believe that to be the case, then I think it is really... It is less

powerful thing than it was. Goldman Sachs is one of the most hated

industries the country. It doesn't help in the way it would have done

10, 20 years ago. Let us look at the FT. This is to do with Donald

Trump's campaign, campaign manager being charged with battery after he

was supposed to have grabbed a female reporter, I am not sure what

it show, that is him supposedly grappling with her, you spent a lot

time in America at the moment. Is this going to damage Donald Trump's

campaign? He has criticised the war hero John McCain for getting

captured. He has mocked a disabled New York Times reporter. He has made

some incredibly misogynistic remarks, this is his campaign

manager lied about he said he didn't touch this female reporter, he

clearly did. Have good independent headline. He has been Teflon up to

now, he has got away with things, even one would have sung a

conventional candidate. I would hope it would damage him but I am not

making prediction. Less than a man to go, if he is nominated will he,

has he got a chance of beating Hillary Clinton? He has a chance,

she is a row bo tech uninspiring candidate. He is so vulgar, he is so

extreme in some of his view, his anti-Muslim, I don't think that will

appeal to most Americans. Do you think trump could win? Rationale

politics is losing out to irrational politics, whether it is on the right

or left. Populist candidates who defy all the rules, are the ones who

appear to be prevailing everywhere, so logic suggests he's won't win,

but who can predict with certainty. That is hedging your bets.

I know who I want to win, that is another matter. Many thanks to both

of you, we have run out of time. That is it for the paper, before you

go, we have got some other front pains that have come in while we

have been talking. Let us show you those quickly.

And the Daily Mirror with the claim against Elton John.

He says he will fight tooth and nail. All the front-pages are online

on the BBC News website where you can read a detailed review.

Thank you to John and Tim, that is it from us, good night.