20/11/2016 The Papers


20/11/2016

No need to wait to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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We'll be taking a look at tomorrow mornings papers in a moment, first,

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11 crew members are airlifted from a 200-meter cargo ship,

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that lost power off the coast of Dover, as Storm Angus batters

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the south coast of England with high wind and heavy rain.

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After months of speculation, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel

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confirms that she will seek a fourth term in office.

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Elections will take place next year.

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Chancellor Philip Hammond will announce an extra ?1.3 billion

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to improve Britain's roads during his Autumn

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More than 120 people are killed and 100 others left injured

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after a passenger train derails in northern India.

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And Andy Murray is crowned No.1 male tennis

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player in the world after he beats five-time

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champion Novak Djokovic, and wins his first ATP

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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be

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With me are the Broadcaster Natalie Haynes - and the Independent's

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Deputy Political Editor, Rob Merrick.

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Natalie with her weather seemed jumper. Rob, where is yours? Let's

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look at,'s from pages. The Daily Telegraph leads

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with Prime Minister Theresa May's tax pledge to win back business,

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and she'll offer a better New Push for 'clean break' EU exit

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reports the Daily Express, as 70 Eurosceptic MPs join forces

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over fears that Remain campaigners could stop the UK from leaving

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Brussels. Blair is back in politics

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reports the Metro. He's setting up a new institute, to

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'fill a hole' in British politics. And a third of young homeless people

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are turned away by councils Let's have a look ahead to the

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Autumn Statement on Wednesday. The i has the headline Osborne austerity

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continues in Brexit budget. How much is really in this budget? He talked

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about giving us headroom for a bumpy time. Anyone who sees this rampage

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and has been following the news in recent weeks will be confused. They

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will have thought they learned Wednesday as opposed to the budget

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to reset economic policy, to finally dump George Osborne's legacy that

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Theresa May is desperate to help struggling families. This headline

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suggests the austerity of Osborne will continue. It tells us either

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this is expectation management ahead of Wednesday and perhaps the

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Chancellor thinks expectations are running ahead of themselves and he

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needs to slow things down. Or, the other explanation is there is a

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battle that has gone on, is going on between number ten and number 11.

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The Prime Minister desperate to help these just about managing families

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or the JAMS. The Chancellor, if he has any money to spend wants to

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spend it on investment and better transport or other things that would

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improve Britain's dreadful productivity and prepare for Brexit.

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There does seem to be a battle going on in the background. We need to be

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match fit. ?1 billion for the road network, which Labour are not

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impressed with? Yes. The issue with roads is no matter how much money

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you throw at them they will somehow gobble up more money, that is their

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USP. Made worse by the fact every time you spend money on road it

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involves roadworks which makes everyone furious. Probably the most

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annoying way you can spare money, in order to antagonise most people. I

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feel very much like this is expectation management. We were

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talking before we came in, sorry to spoil the magic, talking and saying

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it does feel like they have been building and don't worry, don't

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worry, it will be fine. And now there is some back slap, just

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kidding everyone, and a very small bang on Wednesday when it comes,

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everyone can be relieved. For everyone playing budget bingo I hope

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JAMS is at the top of your card. It makes an important point on the

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front, what is coming down the line, unless the Chancellor changes tack,

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are huge welfare cuts, huge cuts to people on low income and disabled

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people, a four dear benefit freeze. Whatever goodies he might be able to

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afford, a few quid off air passenger duty, that is scarcely going to

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compensate for the enormous sums of money that poor people are set to

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lose. That brings us nicely to the lead in the Guardian. Here we have

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them again, the just about managing households. A really high figure,

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?2500 a year that this can consultancy firm said the families

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could be missing out on? Yes, and that looking at all kinds of things,

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including cuts to housing benefit and... And benefit caps and freezes

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and bedroom taxes, as well as universal tax credit and everything

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else. ?2500 a year is pretty serious money for most of us, I think, apart

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from people earning incredibly well. And if you are on that border

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between managing and not managing the ?2500 a year is serious money.

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Would research like that change anything before Wednesday? To change

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it would involve enormous sums of money. This is why George Osborne

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put it in the budget in the first place, because that is way he could

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make his savings, the only place he could make savings. Billions and

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billions of pounds the government simply doesn't have. The other thing

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we will learn on Wednesday is the size of the Black hole to come

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because of Brexit. On Wednesday even the biggest fantasist in the Brexit

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Camp Nou think we are out of the woods and there is no economic

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damage from the vote in June will surely have to make some

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concessions, because the economy will slow down next year, as the

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forecaster said, and that will open up a huge black hole. The government

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will have less money, not more money. That there were contradictory

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figures, which lead us to believe things are not so bad. Unemployment

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figures are better than they have been in ages. There are those in

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favour of Brexit who can say, the wheels have come off like people

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said they would. Some people were expecting it to be much worse by

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now, won't they? I think there's a difference in the forecast made by

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economists and the forecasts made by George Osborne. George Osborne mate

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and crazy forecasts, that there would be an instant deep recession

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and there would have to be an emergency budget. I do believe

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that I don't think most people did. The economic forecasts are very

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different, people will stop spending because of a nervousness about

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Brexit. Companies. Investing because of the same nervousness. That is

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still most likely. The Daily Telegraph. Nicolas Sarkozy suffers

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shock defeat in the first round of the French primaries. We were saying

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it surprising that this story isn't an more front pages. This is the

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exercise to select the centre-right candidate who will have to take on

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Marine le Pen from the National front next year. Yes, despite the

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fact of the referendum, France is quite near and it does have a bit of

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an impact on us, who's in charge of France. Like you say, on the front

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of every paper... But perhaps people went to press too early, perhaps

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these results came in quite late. Yes, the person who has defeated

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Nicolas Sarkozy is Francois Fillon, described by the Daily Telegraph as

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a Thatcherite with a Welsh wife. Glorious turn of phrase. I think we

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are given to understand that perhaps he is a fan, but perhaps not as

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much, perhaps just likes one Welsh person and married her. As a

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Welshman I was excited. This was your moment! We never get any Welsh

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prime ministers in this country. But apparently, despite his love for his

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wife, doesn't like the rest of us Brits very much. I think he's on

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record saying it must be a hard Brexit unless Britain makes

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concessions in the talks. He wants to ban British MEPs from voting

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straightaway, wants the deal done fast. Doesn't sound like there will

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be any concessions from Paris if he wins, two Theresa May. If he doesn't

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win, and are Marine le Pen does when... -- win. What's interesting

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about Nicolas Sarkozy is he moved to the writing pursuit of the popular

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vote and it didn't work, in this case, when it comes to being

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selected for the party? What we have to appreciate is the theme in 2016,

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which looks like carrying into 2017, the phrase shock defeat is no longer

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usable, pretty much by definition if it is a shock to this vision it

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should have been what we were expecting to happen. I think you are

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right. -- if it is a shock decision. I was talking to poster from Germany

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today saying he could not predict what was going to happen. According

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to the metro, Tony Blair back in politics because Jeremy Corbyn is a

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nutter and Theresa May is a lightweight. To what extent is he

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really coming back into politics? I thought you are going to do what

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extent is he a nutter and she a lightweight! LAUGHTER

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That our libel laws. An eye-catching headline. Perhaps people think, what

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seat is he running for, will he be my MP Chris Wratt the answer is no.

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There is no suggestion he will return to front line politics, but

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he wants to dip his toe in the water, to the extent of setting up a

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new commission, some sort of think tank to be more closely involved in

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British politics from that sort of angle to either stop Brexit or amend

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Brexit. He thinks Brexit will be a disaster. He thinks he even has

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allies on the conservative side to work behind the scenes. Perhaps he

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had spoken to George Osborne. What will people think of this?

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Presumably they will think he is the most deluded person in the country,

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as people's minds were made up about Tony Blair a long time ago and not

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very favourably. Or who knows, maybe there are people out there who are

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so disillusioned with politics as it currently is, they can forget Tony

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Blair's failings and maybe even look back fondly to aspects of his rule.

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Time will tell. Some people would think anything he goes near would

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not help the people he's trying to help? Yes, I think that's probably

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true. I think he has a slight, slight, meze ionic attitude to the

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world. I think he goes, there is a problem, I could fix this and

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launches himself at it. Which in some ways is proactive and exactly

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what we would like to be happening, as opposed to everyone sitting

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around and claim this is terrible, this Brexit. Maybe if we sit here

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long enough it will be fine. But I think it is rarely the right answer

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when he makes that choice. How would he do any of that from within an

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institute he has set up? It doesn't sound like a proactive place to be

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doing things. Best case scenario if you could get people onto the BBC to

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offer an alternative opinion, to do a bit of shaping of the public

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debate. I feel like public debate is probably moving in the direction

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it's going to move in already. He's a fantastic orator, even his

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greatest critics would have to concede that. He has an incredible

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capacity for persuasion but I think he comes with too much baggage,

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doesn't he? Yes. I suggested before maybe some people would change their

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minds if they are really depressed about politics in the way it stands.

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But the headline is incorrect, is it? He's not going to be back in

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politics in the way we normally understand it. But he clearly wants

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to play some sort of role, trying to change events to some degree. If you

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want to be rehabilitated into the Labour Party you have to dance!

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That's true. Try the tango. The Telegraph. British children bottom

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of world fitness league. This makes some very depressing reading. Where

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does this come from? Research on 38 countries for the amount of physical

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activity done by children. England and Wales finished below the likes

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of Poland, Slovenia and Venezuela. They gave us a D minus. They said

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only about 15% of girls aged 11-15 are doing the one hour a day of

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moderate physical activity, which is recommended. If you think the miners

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is bad, you need to also think about Scotland, which gets an F. This

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comparison was done a couple of years ago, 2014. I think England had

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a seedy rating then, so things seem to be getting worse. At a particular

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point in HR's life it seems to get worse? It is disheartening. The use

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of the phrase bottom of the world because of where the line break is.

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The fitness league is only 38 countries, so not literally at the

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bottom of the world, although it does feel a bit like it when you

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read the numbers, which is that one in five primary school children,

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when they start primary school one in ten is obese, by the time they

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leave its one in five. 20%. That is a huge number. 15% of girls are

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doing exercise of an hour a day. 20% of children are already obese at 11.

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That seems like a terrifying number. We keep reading the almost packed

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phrase that this is the generation that will die before the age their

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parents reach, but I'm not sure how we're still saying that kind of

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glibly. It's a horrifying statistic. The suggestion is families need to

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make a change to everyday routines, to build in more exercise, is that

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right? They are calling it a super drug. If it were a drug and you

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could bottle it, they are saying this would be the pill. Exercise,

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exercise, exercise. It seems we have had many years looking at behaviour

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and the figures are getting worse. One head teacher introduced a one

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mile run every day for pupils. That has got some publicity, some praise.

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A few of the schools are copying it, but it doesn't seem to be spreading

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widely. The problem is our school curriculum is jam-packed with

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teaching the stuff that's really important, literacy and numeracy,

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but perhaps more space needs to be found for physical activity and

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forced at school, the only place where you can enforce it. A mile...

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I'm not saying it's not far but a lot less than an hour unless you go

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extremely slowly, it won't take you on our. Even I might manage it.

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Let's stay with the Telegraph this unhappy news. Keeping his crown.

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Andy Murray. You watched the match? I did. To be honest it was very

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stressful flipping between that and the Strictly results. He is my total

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hero, after my hero because of his complete deadpan expression and

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refusal to answer facile questions with facile replies but always super

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serious and undermining. Look how happy he looks. He was so exhausted.

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He played Raonic for three hours and 30 minutes yesterday, the two

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longest ever 80 port -- 80 port -- ATP tour matches. He played both of

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them. It was astonishing. And against Djokovic to achieve this,

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it's not just anybody. It is the world number two. It would have been

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unthinkable just a few years ago, let alone when I was growing up,

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that there could be a British number one. That is the scale of his

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achievement. I think we are in awe of his physical capabilities to do

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it day after day. I thought Djokovic would win today and it turned out to

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be quite easy. The number two, three, four and five players in the

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world because he is number one, it's amazing. You know your stuff! I love

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him, mock me not. That's it for The Papers

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for this hour. Don't forget all the front pages

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are online on the BBC News website where you can read a detailed review

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of the papers. You can see a repeat of this

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addition as well. But don't wait for that, we will be back live in just

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under one hour's time. Coming up next -

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it's Meet the Author. The rise of the Irish writer

:17:14.:17:22.

Cecelia Ahern has been

:17:23.:17:25.

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