06/12/2012 This Week


06/12/2012

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Tonight as winter arrives, This Week takes to the political slopes.

:00:17.:00:21.

Chancellor George Osborne navigates a treacherous economic black run

:00:21.:00:26.

and spls out just how bad things are looking. It is a hard road, but

:00:26.:00:31.

we are getting there, and Britain is on the right track. The BBC's

:00:31.:00:38.

Robert Peston steps out of the cold to enjoy a bit of apres ski.

:00:38.:00:43.

There's a chill wind blowing through the economy and the

:00:43.:00:46.

Chancellor didn't exactly open his wallet and buy us all a drink,

:00:46.:00:51.

which is why the bill for this one Andrew is being passed back to you.

:00:51.:00:56.

Cheers! As the snowy conditions reached the UK, is austerity

:00:56.:01:01.

leading to a freeze in social mobility? Author Tony Parsons feels

:01:01.:01:07.

chill. My cockles were warmed by the news that Kate and William's

:01:07.:01:11.

baby will be the first British monarch with working class blood.

:01:11.:01:19.

But are the Middleton as one-off? And with hoax callers using their

:01:19.:01:25.

slalom skills to fool Kate's nurses, how easy is it to make it and fake

:01:25.:01:29.

it? Cool comedy customer Miles Jupp slides into our studio. I've

:01:29.:01:37.

blagged my way on to various things, including as part of the press Corp

:01:37.:01:41.

on the England tour of India. But the most impressive thing I've

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blagged my way on to is the This Week sofa. Wrap up warm, it's all

:01:48.:01:58.
:01:58.:02:02.

Evenin' all. Welcome to This Week, the show that promises so much and

:02:02.:02:04.

delivers so little, leaving gullible viewers feeling conned and

:02:04.:02:11.

out of pocket. Think of us as the Nigerian email scam of BBC current

:02:11.:02:15.

affairs, or the Autumn Statement. Of course, we're not alone in our

:02:15.:02:20.

tendency to commit fraud. In fact, it's been a week of prank calls and

:02:20.:02:23.

cruel hoaxes. Yet something's clearly wrong when an Australian DJ

:02:23.:02:25.

can impersonate the Queen and sound more believable than a forecast

:02:25.:02:31.

from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Although the OBR

:02:31.:02:33.

has form when it comes to misleading impressions, dodgy

:02:33.:02:35.

predictions and dubious soothsaying, as if the nation's economic

:02:35.:02:44.

forecasts have been out-sourced to Doris Stokes. Oooohhhh, the voices

:02:44.:02:51.

are strong tonight. I'm picking up "expansionary fiscal contraction".

:02:51.:02:55.

No, no, that's fading. I'm now hearing "no growth"... "bigger

:02:55.:02:59.

borrowing"... "missing the debt target"... "bye-bye Triple A". What

:02:59.:03:07.

can it mean? Not that I'm bothered by AAA - I'm in the RAC! Boom-boom.

:03:07.:03:10.

Anyway, with the UK's AAA rating now in doubt and a triple-dip

:03:10.:03:12.

recession now likely, it looks like the era of "triple-down economics"

:03:13.:03:21.

will soon be with us. Did you see what I did there?

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Speaking of those whose credibility is shot to pieces, I'm joined on

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the sofa tonight by two Westminster scatter cushions with the stuffing

:03:27.:03:30.

knocked out. The off-trend and off- colour soft furnishings of late

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night political chat. I speak of course of #jacqu.i.am Jacqui Smith,

:03:33.:03:43.
:03:43.:03:46.

and #sadmanonatrain Michael "choo- choo" Portillo. Your moment of the

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week. Hello Andrew. There was a meeting of the parliamentary

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committee on banking standards and it featured Lord Lawson, Nigel

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Lawson, Chancellor of the Exchequer in the 1980s, interviewing the

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chairman of Halifax Bank of Scotland when it went down the due.

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He had written a few letters say his bank was in brilliant condition.

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Lord Lawson said if he believed that when he wrote it, he must have

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been deluded. It reminded me of what a formidable force he is,ant

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how all of this mess began. It was whole lot of greedy bank traders in

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banks and managers supposed to have been minding them. Jacqui?

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Starbucks have woken up and smelled the coffee today. I wonder whether

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this is people power or whether it's the first manifestation of a

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big corporate or because they are facing the risk of some sort of

:05:03.:05:07.

demo and difficulty. It's a PR stunt. Well, but it's interesting

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isn't it that a company like that has been forced into doing this?

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This is why... I would like to make up a figure and pay my tax that way.

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It is just a PR stunt to get them through. Will it come out of the PR

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budget. But they obviously think it is important that they respond.

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go to Starbucks and I get them to do my tax return.

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Now, the Blue Nun screw tops have been cracking open up and down the

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land, as Her Majesty's loyal plebs toast a future royal baby. -- wee

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bairn. Boy or girl, Kate and Will's offspring will be the future

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monarch and will undoubtedly lead a gilded life. But what about the

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babies not born to rule? Can they expect even a fraction of the same

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life chances? We've asked author and journalist Tony Parsons to give

:05:59.:06:09.
:06:09.:06:11.

This week most of us rejoiced at the news of the new royal baby. Now,

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take it from me, the worst thing about having a baby is that you're

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never truly free again. And the best thing about having a baby is

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that you never have a better reason to be alive. Shall we get them some

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flowers? The best thing about a royal baby - they guarantee the

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survival of the monarchy for another 100 years, ensuring we

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don't have some greedy, grasping fly-by-night politician Lording it

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over us as head of state. And the worst thing about a royal baby? You

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get all these pundits associating significance to the royal might

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that don't exist. I wonder if there is anything fit for a King or a

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Queen. We're told that Kate and William's baby will be our first

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classless sovereign. And nothing could be further from the truth.

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Yes Kate comes from humble working stock - miners and car penters.

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Even a generation ago kit's mother was serving tea or coffee as a

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flight attendant while legions of flunkies were checking the

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:07:38.:07:41.

temperature of Prince Charles' soft-boiled eggs.

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The Middleton family are is gold medal winners of social mobility,

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and good luck to them, but the Middletons are the exception that

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proved the rule. Kate and William's baby will be born into a country

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where it has never been more difficult to get ahead. A land

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:08:09.:08:10.

where social mobility is not poorly or dying, but dead. Kate and

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William's baby will be born into a land that has heavy been more class

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ridden in my lifetime. A land where the gap between the have not and

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the have lots is big and getting bigger. Applications for university

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are down. Soup kitchens are sprouting up everywhere.

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Homelessness is becoming an epidemic. Even the modest

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aspirations of the recent past, a higher education for your children,

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buying your first home, starting a family, are starting to seem like

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impossible dreams. But this baby will be born into a

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realm where the people are divided by wealth, by privilege and, above

:09:02.:09:08.

all, by opportunity. Our first classless sovereign? I'll believe

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that one when Kate and William send their kid to a comprehensive.

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Red, white and blue always looks good.

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Tony Parsons from the Flowerstalk in Hampstead to our own little

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flower shop in Westminster. Tony, welcome. Thank you. You say social

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mobility isn't dying or feeling rather poorly but you are saying it

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is dead. A bit of an exaggeration? I don't think so. It is remarkable

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we've got this baby coming along that has the blood of miners and

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core penters and flight attendants and does come from workinging class

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stock. A couple of generations back. But they've completely moved from

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digging coal in Cumbria to the Crown in a few generations, with

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the things that always are the engine of social moct - hard work,

:10:06.:10:12.

education, working class decency and charm, niceness, beauty, love.

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But I think that that baby is the exception rather than the rule. I

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don't think lit ever happen again. When I was growing up there were

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five British Prime Ministers in a row that were educated by the state.

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I don't think that, from 1946 to 1997. I don't think that can happen

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again. If it is broken down, if it is as bad as you say, what or who

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is to blame? I think the politicians that kicked away

:10:42.:10:46.

ladders for bright working class kids should take a lot of the blame.

:10:46.:10:52.

The ones that did it in the 1960s and the ones that continue to do it

:10:52.:10:57.

today. Grammar schools are despised from David Cameron to Ed Miliband.

:10:57.:11:04.

They all hate the idea of them. There'll always be people that slip

:11:04.:11:09.

through the net, people that somehow make it, but education is

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the great driving force of social mobility. It is not just the

:11:14.:11:17.

working class but the middle class too. It is people from ordinary

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homes. When that's taken away, you will always, we will forever be

:11:24.:11:30.

ruled by unexceptional men who had exceptional educations. Is social

:11:30.:11:35.

mobility in decline? Evidently it is and I entirely agree with Tony's

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point about education. I think social engineering in education,

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the destruction of the grammar schools a really important part of

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this. Another misguided social policy, the expansion of welfare,

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which has trapped many people into dependency and destroyed what Tony

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just described as working class decency. Now it is possible for

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people to get on the welfare early, to live off welfare and to create

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subsequent generations of people who live on welfare. I don't

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entirely agree that we are a more class-divided society. There is an

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extraordinary expansion of the bourgeoisie. If you see the habits

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that people adopt in the has been that its people aspire to, it is

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largely now around food and wine bars and the kind of middle class

:12:23.:12:28.

set of values and enjoyment. On the other hand, what used to be working

:12:28.:12:33.

class sports, they've become largely bourgeoisiified. Even rock

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concerts have become bourgeoisiified. The ticket prices

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have gone through the roof. I think the middle class is expanding and

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expanding but I do believe people at the bottom of society, it is

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nigh on impossible to get to the top. Do you think it is in decline?

:12:50.:12:54.

I think there are serious problems and I think education is the answer,

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although I disagree with Michael and Tony about grammar schools. I

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don't think we can afford to have a society nowadays which only lifts

:13:01.:13:06.

up, if it lifts up at all, 20% of people. Everybody through a

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comprehensive system has to are the opportunity to get on. 20% would be

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better than 0, which is the public schools. I do note this week a

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little spat between Andrew Adonis and the new regulator of Fair

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Access to Universities. It was reported that he said it doesn't

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matter if kids in comprehensive schools are encouraged to go to

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Oxford or Cambridge. In my view there is not enough aspiration for

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enough young people. Having an expectation that large numbers of

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people will go to the very best universities is at the very least

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what we need to do in our schools. One of the problems, I think, one

:13:49.:13:53.

of the big political issues at the moment for Labour is not to back

:13:53.:13:58.

off the reforms to education that we started. So not to back off the

:13:58.:14:02.

academies programme, which we put in place. Possibly even to see some

:14:02.:14:05.

of the benefits of free schools, where those exist. And to support

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those, but not to move away from the idea that education has to be a

:14:10.:14:20.
:14:20.:14:21.

There is an implication there that because only 20% went to grammar

:14:21.:14:25.

schools, it was better that 0% should get that education. That is

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exactly where we have ended up. It is about 0% of people who do not go

:14:29.:14:37.

to public school who can make it to the top -- 0%, all people who go to

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public school. That is just not true. You cannot simply have this

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very artificial, at age 11, division between those who will be

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academic and those who will not. understand your argument, and we

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have the benefit of the policy. It is its bark macro -- it is exactly

:15:00.:15:03.

what Tony was saying. The gap between rich and poor has got wider

:15:03.:15:10.

as well. Cognitive skills, in an information economy become much

:15:10.:15:13.

more important, so the well-paid skilled, blue-collar workers in the

:15:13.:15:18.

past. For there to be social mobility, don't we all need to

:15:18.:15:22.

start at least a little bit closer together than we are at the moment?

:15:22.:15:29.

We do. It is not just about the education of white working-class

:15:29.:15:34.

kids in grammar schools. My mother had six brothers, and most of them

:15:35.:15:38.

worked in the print. They served apprenticeships, which have died

:15:38.:15:42.

out as well as grammar schools. It is giving people a body of skills.

:15:42.:15:49.

I understand what Jackie is saying, that at 11 you're making tough,

:15:50.:15:54.

unfair choices. In some ways, it is unfair. I lost a lot of my friends,

:15:54.:15:58.

my best friend, when I went to a grammar school and they went to a

:15:58.:16:03.

secondary modern. But life is tough and unfair and it makes choices all

:16:03.:16:08.

the time. It would not necessarily have to be 11. You could not call

:16:08.:16:12.

them grammar schools anyway. If they ever came back, we have to

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call them something else. Part of the problem with social mobility is

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that the tough choices are made before you get to 11, before you

:16:20.:16:23.

get to school, in terms of whether people come from families where

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they have been supported to be able to read and be ready to go to

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school. That is why I think this Government is right to be expanding

:16:33.:16:36.

education for two year-olds, but I think they are wrong to limit the

:16:36.:16:40.

availability of Sure Start centres to people, because that makes the

:16:40.:16:45.

difference at the earliest stage. The Miliband brothers went to a

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comprehensive. I have been to that school and a surprise that Ed

:16:49.:16:52.

Miliband made it through his first play time because it is quite a

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tough school. And a very mixed school. But they come from a home

:16:57.:17:00.

it was full of books, and a home where ideas were discussed at the

:17:00.:17:07.

dinner table. So they had a rich cultural life. There is no denying

:17:07.:17:10.

that they are comprehensive Boys, but they came from an exceptional

:17:10.:17:14.

home, with an exceptional father, where there was a level of debate

:17:14.:17:21.

which you would not get in many homes. You know the middle classes

:17:21.:17:23.

invented some grammar schools by making little properties it owns,

:17:23.:17:28.

where property prices are very high, so their comprehensive is

:17:28.:17:31.

outstanding. I would not be too surprised if this royal baby goes

:17:31.:17:38.

to a comprehensive like that. have to say, I think public schools

:17:38.:17:43.

are fantastic schools. But what is interesting about that golden

:17:43.:17:48.

period of meritocracy, five Prime Ministers in a row from Wilson to

:17:48.:17:53.

to John Major, is that they were competing, when Eton and

:17:53.:17:56.

Westminster and St Paul's were still great schools. They were

:17:56.:18:01.

fantastic schools them, but these quirky, strange characters, John

:18:01.:18:05.

Major, Jim Callaghan, Margaret Thatcher and Harold Wilson coming

:18:05.:18:10.

from the back of beyond, were competing with them. So if

:18:10.:18:16.

politicians broke it, can they put it together again? Yes, they can.

:18:16.:18:20.

But it is not going to happen. It is just one of those things. They

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are all against it. Major parties, for some reason. I think you are

:18:26.:18:30.

wrong about that. Out of the free schools, we are going to find such

:18:30.:18:34.

diversity of schooling emerging that we will find something like

:18:34.:18:39.

the old grammar schools coming through. If the crackdown on

:18:39.:18:43.

welfare continues in the direction it is continuing, you are going to

:18:43.:18:48.

put the family back at the centre of society, rather than having the

:18:48.:18:53.

state as the father of so many children. An optimistic note. Let's

:18:53.:18:58.

leave it there. Thank you very much. Now, it's late, and our viewing

:18:58.:19:00.

figures are lower than a Frenchman's sperm count. Down a

:19:01.:19:04.

third in recent years, apparently. The sperm count, not the viewing

:19:04.:19:09.

figures. But for those of you still up, you're in luck. Because waiting

:19:09.:19:11.

in the, wings fresh from the National Theatre tonight, actor,

:19:12.:19:19.

comedian, writer, Miles Jupp, here to talk about the art of faking it.

:19:19.:19:23.

And you too can pretend to be somebody you're not, as you do most

:19:23.:19:29.

weeks, on the Twitter, the Fleecebook, and the interweb.

:19:29.:19:31.

Now, we love big days, when everyone's focused on exciting

:19:32.:19:37.

Westminster occasions. No, not the visit to Downing Street of gangsta

:19:37.:19:40.

rapper Dr Dre, I kid ye not, but the Autumn Statement by financial

:19:40.:19:44.

rapper Boy George. Yesterday, he stood at the despatch box and

:19:44.:19:47.

claimed he was on course, despite being, well, totally off course,

:19:47.:19:54.

not to say lost in a sea of red ink. Since then, there's been a lot of

:19:55.:19:58.

wondering about what it all means. So we turned to the best in the

:19:58.:20:01.

business, the BBC's business editor, Robert Peston. He's been taking a

:20:02.:20:11.
:20:12.:20:28.

well-deserved breather with his Another huge week for this

:20:28.:20:32.

Government. George Osborne had to admit he is going to miss one of

:20:32.:20:36.

his important debt targets, and tried to convince us in his Autumn

:20:36.:20:39.

Statement that he has a plan to get some momentum behind the economy.

:20:39.:20:44.

It has been a pretty gruelling week for me because I have to try and

:20:44.:20:48.

make sense of it all. Thank goodness, after these exhausting

:20:48.:20:56.

days, I can come to my club. Only the best are Loudon. But there is

:20:56.:20:59.

obviously nothing AAA about this place, because if there was, they

:20:59.:21:03.

would not let you in. When the Chancellor goes on and on about AAA

:21:03.:21:09.

in relation to debt, what does he mean? Well, it means investors have

:21:09.:21:13.

confidence, confidence that the Government can repay its debts.

:21:13.:21:16.

That allows the Government to borrow very cheaply, so maintaining

:21:16.:21:22.

that AAA badge has been desperately important to George Osborne. In

:21:22.:21:28.

fact, trying to retain that triple- A rating underpinned pretty much

:21:28.:21:32.

everything he said in the House of Commons. The tougher economic

:21:32.:21:37.

conditions mean that while our deficit is forced -- forecast to go

:21:37.:21:45.

on falling, instead of taking three years, it is going to take four.

:21:45.:21:49.

Confronted with this news, some say we should abandon our deficit plan

:21:49.:21:53.

and try to borrow more. We are not taking that road to ruin. It may

:21:53.:21:57.

not be the road to ruin but it certainly looks like a pretty hard

:21:57.:22:00.

road. The Chancellor says that austerity, tax increases and

:22:00.:22:10.

spending cuts, now has to go on all the way to 2018. So I am always

:22:10.:22:13.

hearing the Chancellor going on about how we are all in it together.

:22:13.:22:17.

Is there anything to that? Well, the pain is not being imposed on

:22:17.:22:22.

everybody equally by the Chancellor. Actually, the super rich are pretty

:22:22.:22:26.

much left off. But if you are a doctor or a civil servant, saving

:22:26.:22:30.

for a pension, you are going to be worse off. And if you are

:22:30.:22:34.

unemployed or on very low earnings, you will be worse off. What is

:22:34.:22:38.

interesting to me is that the people who have probably done all

:22:38.:22:42.

right are those right in the middle, people who you might see as swing

:22:42.:22:47.

voters, desperately important for the next election. There are no

:22:47.:22:52.

quick fixes to these problems. But they want to know that we are

:22:52.:22:56.

making progress. And the message from today's Autumn Statement is

:22:56.:23:01.

that we are making progress. It is a hard road, but we're getting

:23:01.:23:09.

there. With the Government missing its numbers, it looked like an open

:23:09.:23:13.

goal for Labour, but they do not have -- they do not seem to have

:23:13.:23:17.

scored. What went wrong? There was some fancy footwork from the

:23:17.:23:22.

Chancellor which caught the shadow jobs were, Ed Balls, off guard. He

:23:22.:23:27.

suffers from a stutter and what came out was not what he wanted.

:23:27.:23:31.

The House of Commons showed no sympathy. The national deficit is

:23:31.:23:41.
:23:41.:23:42.

not rising. It is rising, not falling. I will say it again. Our

:23:43.:23:47.

economy is contracting this year. Government borrowing and the

:23:47.:23:51.

deficit is revised up this year, next year and every year, and the

:23:51.:23:56.

national debt is rising. It is not falling. This is obviously going to

:23:56.:24:01.

be a long game. How will Labour try to fight back? Ed Balls will

:24:01.:24:05.

continue to point out that George Osborne is failing his own test of

:24:05.:24:08.

credibility, in that the national debt is going up and up as far as

:24:08.:24:12.

the eye can see. He will say it is unfair that so much of the squeeze

:24:12.:24:18.

is falling on the working poor. But the Chancellor has set a trap for

:24:18.:24:21.

Labour. Cuts in unemployment benefits are popular with many

:24:21.:24:27.

voters. How will Labour vote on that? Cutting taxes for the rich,

:24:27.:24:32.

while struggling families and pensioners pay the price, unfair,

:24:32.:24:41.

incompetent and completely out of touch. Many would say Labour has

:24:41.:24:45.

not launched a significant economic policy for some time. Its strategy

:24:45.:24:48.

appears to be to sit back on the assumption that it will fall apart

:24:48.:24:52.

and there are certainly plenty of economists who fear that the UK may

:24:52.:24:57.

lurch back into recession. If that were to happen, there would

:24:57.:25:01.

certainly be tensions, new tensions in the coalition. A senior Lib Dem

:25:01.:25:05.

minister recently said to me that if there were a so-called triple

:25:05.:25:09.

dip, he would start to put pressure on George Osborne for a change of

:25:09.:25:12.

strategy, which is why the Chancellor may have taken something

:25:12.:25:20.

of a risk in so publicly pooh- poohing the Lib Dems cherished

:25:20.:25:26.

mansion tax. In my view, it would be intrusive, expensive to levy,

:25:26.:25:29.

would raise little and be a temptation for future Chancellors

:25:29.:25:33.

to bring ever more homes into its net. So we are not having a new

:25:33.:25:43.
:25:43.:25:43.

homes tax. There are huge pressures of -- on the British economy. If

:25:43.:25:48.

the recovery fails to materialise in the way George Osborne hopes and

:25:48.:25:55.

expects, the UK would then lose that glistening AAA credit rating,

:25:55.:25:58.

which would be a huge political embarrassment for the Chancellor

:25:58.:26:05.

and also for the Prime Minister. I say, old chap, I think it is time

:26:05.:26:14.

you left. My goodness, they let anybody in these days.

:26:14.:26:18.

That was Robert Peston, taking five at the Sir Richard Steele Pub in

:26:18.:26:21.

Belsize Park. And the music, of course, our little homage to the

:26:21.:26:31.
:26:31.:26:37.

wonderful jazz pianist and composer Dave Brubeck, who died this week.

:26:37.:26:45.

Yes, I was a fan of Dave Brubeck. None of that was on the autocue.

:26:45.:26:50.

Are we going to lose the triple-A rating? It is possible. It is more

:26:50.:26:54.

or less what the whole government strategy has been about. It is more

:26:54.:27:00.

or less why the coalition came into being in the first place. But not

:27:00.:27:03.

exactly the triple-A rating. Precisely, it is to keep the

:27:03.:27:06.

interest on what the Government has to pay on its borrowing as low as

:27:06.:27:11.

possible, that is to say at about 2%. It is possible that even if we

:27:12.:27:15.

lost the triple-A rating we would still be paying interest at 2%, in

:27:15.:27:18.

which case none of us would notice any difference and I don't think

:27:18.:27:22.

the Americans would. Although there were warnings that we might lose

:27:22.:27:25.

the triple-A rating, the markets this morning were pretty positive

:27:25.:27:29.

for the Government. The triple-A rating is a kind of proxy, but what

:27:29.:27:32.

really matters is the rate of interest that we pay. If the rate

:27:32.:27:38.

of interest remains at 2%, we are fine, in a sustainable position. If

:27:38.:27:44.

it goes up to where Spain and Italy are, 5%, that is catastrophic. The

:27:44.:27:48.

coalition would say this is an argument in its favour. It is

:27:48.:27:50.

precisely because we are on this hair-trigger, that interest rates

:27:50.:27:53.

could go zooming up, that if we were to do what Ed Balls says,

:27:53.:27:57.

borrow more now, we would simply lurch into that position of having

:27:57.:28:02.

these much higher interest rates, and that would be catastrophic. So

:28:02.:28:05.

any little stimulus that you might provide to the economy by borrowing

:28:05.:28:09.

more and spending more would be absolutely washed away with

:28:09.:28:12.

interest rates went up in that way. The comparison that you have to

:28:12.:28:16.

make is not the economy we have compared with what we would like,

:28:16.:28:20.

or compared with what it was, but the economy we have compared with

:28:20.:28:26.

the economy that the Spanish and Italians and Greeks have. If we

:28:26.:28:31.

were to lose the triple-A rating, it would be an open goal for Labour.

:28:31.:28:36.

Put aside the economics. The politics of it are huge. But there

:28:36.:28:43.

may be a trap for Labour, too. If we lose the triple-A rating, it is

:28:43.:28:45.

probably because the Chancellor is failing to meet his borrowing

:28:45.:28:49.

targets and failing to meet his debt targets, so for Labour to

:28:49.:28:59.

argue that borrowing should be even On the AAA rating, I agree. It is

:28:59.:29:01.

more significant for the Chancellor's reputation than it is

:29:01.:29:07.

for the real economy in the UK, not least because comparatively there

:29:07.:29:12.

are now in terms of of where investment will go less options as

:29:12.:29:17.

attractive for the UK, even if we were to lose our AAA rating. I

:29:17.:29:21.

agree with you that there is an issue for Labour in the way in

:29:21.:29:25.

which they respond to the Autumn Statement, another Michael, of

:29:25.:29:31.

course, as Ed Balls rightly pointed out, as the OBR demonstrated, a

:29:31.:29:35.

failure to bring growth into the economy through the austerity

:29:35.:29:41.

programme is the reason why, if we take out the receipts from the 4G

:29:41.:29:45.

sale, why we will nevertheless be borrowing more this year than we

:29:45.:29:50.

would have borrowed last year. is true, if you take the 4G seams

:29:50.:29:58.

out and strip away all the one-off items he rather complicatedly put

:29:58.:30:02.

out yesterday, we borrow more this year than last year. The problem is

:30:02.:30:06.

that austerity isn't working and nor are we all in this together.

:30:06.:30:09.

Because the Chancellor performed rather well yesterday, he had a

:30:09.:30:16.

weak hand and he played it well, and we'll come on in a minute to Ed

:30:16.:30:21.

Balls, who stumbled a bit in the beginning and found it hard to

:30:21.:30:27.

recover. The Chancellor got not a bad press today. When you peal

:30:27.:30:34.

about the figures, he told us he is going to borrow over �250 billion

:30:34.:30:42.

over five years but now it is over �500. -- over �5 00 billion. Growth

:30:42.:30:48.

is now going to be negative this year, barely 1% next year.

:30:48.:30:51.

coalition made a miscalculation. They thought that by announcing

:30:51.:30:56.

there was going to be a Government for five years and announcing there

:30:56.:31:01.

was going to to be an austerity programme there would be such a

:31:01.:31:06.

boost to confidence that growth would return to the economy, and

:31:06.:31:10.

tax revenues would come in and everything would be put right. That

:31:10.:31:13.

was a miscalculation. When Jacqui and others say the policy is not

:31:13.:31:19.

working, it is true that the policy is not creating growth, but Britain

:31:19.:31:23.

has been able to go on borrowing money at 2%, a privilege not

:31:23.:31:27.

available to other countries to Europe. But had there been growth

:31:27.:31:31.

there wouldn't be such a requirement to borrow. Of course,

:31:31.:31:35.

but your little stimulus, your borrowing more, would have hurried

:31:35.:31:39.

on the day at which we would have to pay more interest on the money

:31:39.:31:44.

we borrowed. So the success of the policy has been that we were not

:31:44.:31:51.

Spain or Italy. Before I come on to that... Nor are we Germany or the

:31:51.:31:56.

US on political growth. It is sif to say it is not very good but it

:31:56.:32:00.

could be much worse. That's what the Government is reduced to isn't

:32:00.:32:05.

it? Absolutely, but there will be an option at the next election and

:32:05.:32:09.

that option will be you do wants it very bad or very much worse? That

:32:09.:32:12.

will be the choice that will be put to the British people. The eurozone

:32:12.:32:18.

as a whole is now in recession. The Greek and Spanish economies are in

:32:18.:32:21.

deep decline. The French economy's in recession, the Italian economy

:32:21.:32:26.

is in recession. When you look at the growth figures, which may even

:32:26.:32:31.

be too optimistic for Britain of 1% next year, barely 2% the year after

:32:31.:32:35.

that. I'm beginning to wonder whether you are on the left or the

:32:35.:32:40.

right, the new normal we face is stagnation for the foreseeable

:32:40.:32:44.

future. There is a totally difficulty economic context, I

:32:44.:32:50.

think that's true. From what we grew up with. For the whole of the

:32:50.:32:54.

time that I was in Government, the issues were about how you spent the

:32:54.:32:58.

money with ana was there to be spent. This is a totally different

:32:59.:33:01.

political and economic fiscal environment in which to operate.

:33:01.:33:05.

And to be honest, people are struggling I think in both the

:33:05.:33:09.

major parties with what's the approach to that? The Tory approach

:33:09.:33:12.

was to say we've inherited a mess, we believe austerity is the answer

:33:12.:33:16.

and we are all going be in it together, in taking this tough

:33:16.:33:20.

austerity medicine that. Hasn't worked. The Labour approach to a

:33:20.:33:24.

certain extent Michael is right has been to say that we wouldn't have

:33:24.:33:28.

got into this mess in the first place, as we wouldn't have cut so

:33:28.:33:33.

far and so fast. But the problem is we are now in this situation and

:33:33.:33:37.

for Labour win the next election they have to have a credible story

:33:37.:33:40.

about how the deaf sift will be reduced. How we will manage, the

:33:40.:33:45.

Government, at a time when spending more isn't going to be the answer.

:33:45.:33:49.

I'm sorry to keep going on about European comparisons but people in

:33:49.:33:55.

this country, unless they travel abroad or study abroad don't get

:33:55.:33:59.

the full measure of how desperate the situation is elsewhere and how

:33:59.:34:04.

desperate it could be here. I'm not guaranteeing you with these

:34:04.:34:09.

policies we won't end up in the same place. No. And he isn't. Where

:34:10.:34:16.

we are seeing employment of 8%, other countries are seeing 25%.

:34:16.:34:21.

Tory Party broadcast will be full of rights and demonstration rights

:34:21.:34:26.

footage of Spain and Greece and maybe Italy. To give credit to the

:34:26.:34:32.

last Government, where we in the euro we wouldn't be able to devalue

:34:32.:34:42.
:34:42.:34:42.

our currency or print money. bank that can print money like

:34:42.:34:46.

America, like here, have lo interest rates.

:34:46.:34:50.

Ed Balls was slightly thrown I think was we all thought the

:34:50.:34:55.

deficit would be rising this week. But a bit of jiggery-pokery threw

:34:55.:35:01.

him. Do you feel sorry for him? feel sorry for him. He a good line

:35:01.:35:05.

about a response to the Autumn Statement is like making a wedding

:35:05.:35:11.

speech when you don't talk about the -- when you don't know the

:35:11.:35:16.

broid or the groom. It is not as if people will say the trouble with Ed

:35:16.:35:22.

is he can't perform at the dispatch box. He is a robust performer and

:35:22.:35:27.

if this is lightly less than his usual performance, well... But he's

:35:27.:35:34.

so rude to everybody in the House. The House of Commons is like these

:35:34.:35:38.

Medieval ordeals where they used to dip witches in water and see if

:35:38.:35:42.

they drowned or not. You are thrown into this place and you are you

:35:42.:35:46.

either sink or swim. Your survival depends on all sorts of things.

:35:47.:35:50.

Whether you have a sore throat that day, whether you've got a cold,

:35:50.:35:55.

whether you've got out of the right side of bed. Osborne is like Gordon

:35:55.:36:00.

Brown, he is very political in that he's thrown to Labour this 1% rise

:36:00.:36:04.

in benefits. I couldn't get any Labour politician in the shadow

:36:04.:36:09.

Government to tell me how they are going to vote for it. We'll keep an

:36:09.:36:12.

eye on it. Now, you've probably not twigged,

:36:12.:36:15.

but we're all a bunch of frauds on this sofa, playing at making a TV

:36:16.:36:18.

show. We hide it well don't we? Michael's accidentally stumbled

:36:18.:36:21.

onto the set on his way home from a guest appearance on Gok Wan's

:36:22.:36:25.

Fashion Fix. Jacqui's trying her best as the great pretender to the

:36:25.:36:28.

Abbott throne, though we'll never forget you Diane, or your Annabel's

:36:28.:36:33.

bar bill. And I'm doing my most convincing impression of a man who

:36:33.:36:40.

knows how to read an autocue, read an autocue, read an autocue. So

:36:40.:36:43.

this week we're putting our best feet forward and putting "faking

:36:43.:36:53.
:36:53.:36:59.

Hospital staff looking after Kate were left red faced after two

:36:59.:37:05.

Aussie radio DJs pretended to be the Queen and Prince Charles. The

:37:05.:37:10.

likeness was uncanny. Hello, there can I please speak to

:37:10.:37:16.

Kate please, my granddaughter. hold on ma'am. Thank you.

:37:16.:37:23.

Are they putting us through? Yes! Starbucks' impression of a hippy

:37:23.:37:27.

dipy coffee chain doesn't look so believable, now the mask has

:37:27.:37:31.

slipped and its creative approach to tax revealed a more corporate

:37:31.:37:37.

face. While rumours that Voeck editor Anna Wintour might be the

:37:38.:37:45.

next American ambassador to the UK proves that even if you lack skills,

:37:45.:37:50.

self-confidence can open doors. And at least "Freddie" Flintoff didn't

:37:50.:37:56.

fall flat on his face after leaving cricket and becoming a heavyweight

:37:56.:38:01.

contender, slengs his crit nicks the process.

:38:01.:38:06.

-- silencing his critics in the process. Good to see you. Is it

:38:06.:38:14.

true you blagged your way on to a cricket tour of India? It was six

:38:14.:38:22.

years ago. I couldn't blag my way into the team, obviously, in those

:38:22.:38:26.

days it had selection policy, but the nearest best thing would be to

:38:26.:38:31.

be a journalist. I rang the right people and said I'm the BBC

:38:31.:38:35.

Scotland crickets correspondent, can you sort out my travel and

:38:35.:38:40.

accommodation and stuff. People said yes, so I went out there with

:38:40.:38:44.

the press Corp and tried to be like them. Were you nervous? I was. I

:38:44.:38:48.

imagined the hard thing would be convincing people, would be getting

:38:48.:38:54.

in there. To me the grey area was getting into the press box and voog

:38:54.:39:00.

it as a fortress, but that Paz -- viewing it as a fortress, but that

:39:00.:39:05.

was ludicrously easy. Do you know anything about cricket? I know a

:39:05.:39:10.

lot about cricket. There is a difference between being a fan and

:39:10.:39:15.

people who absorb it all day. Lots of arm chair political experts,

:39:15.:39:22.

they are thrown, you would feel brutally out of your death. It is

:39:22.:39:28.

remarkably how easily the hospital allowed that call to go through. It

:39:28.:39:31.

suggests that people want to believe, they are in a kind of

:39:31.:39:35.

accepting, believing mood. suppose if you answered the phone

:39:35.:39:39.

and someone said it's the Queen here, would hope it was the Queen

:39:40.:39:43.

wouldn't you? You would think, I hope this is the Queen ringing me

:39:43.:39:47.

and not someone pretending the Queen. You are transferring your

:39:47.:39:51.

hopes on to it in a way. The Australians are fascinated by our

:39:51.:39:55.

monarchy, as they are so proud to be subjects of her Marge city.

:39:55.:40:03.

are an actor, a stand-up comedian, a writer. You do ever feel an

:40:03.:40:09.

imposter in these roles? A lot of roles all the time. The different

:40:09.:40:14.

jobs I do, it is one of the great sadnesses of life, you talk to

:40:14.:40:19.

people of any age and they always say you feel you will be found out.

:40:19.:40:24.

There is no such thing as making it. People are amazing in all sorts of

:40:24.:40:29.

field have the most extraordinary doubts sometimes. Michael Portillo,

:40:29.:40:34.

have you ever felt an imposter in any of your jobs? All the time.

:40:34.:40:38.

There was a night when Margaret Thatcher was decide tolling resign

:40:38.:40:44.

and all her cabinet had told her to resign. I was a middle ranking

:40:44.:40:51.

Minister. I got in to see her one to one and urged her not to resign.

:40:51.:40:55.

I thought I am far too junior. Where is the person who is meant to

:40:55.:40:58.

tell the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom not the resign. All

:40:59.:41:04.

the time I was in the Cabinet, I thought I was in a fake Cabinet and

:41:04.:41:10.

behind the curtain there was a real Cabinet. How long did it take for

:41:11.:41:15.

tow feel you belonged in the cabinet? I had been a Minister for

:41:15.:41:19.

seven years. Mike sell modest and not what I always thought Tories

:41:19.:41:22.

were like. When I first got into Government, I remember the first

:41:22.:41:26.

time I went to Downing Street, I thought isn't the thing that Labour

:41:26.:41:29.

politicians do being in Government, whereas those Tories always think

:41:29.:41:33.

they are born for power and they should belong here. I was a grammar

:41:33.:41:39.

school boy you see. But you can, we were talking about class earlier,

:41:39.:41:46.

if you have a public school accent and confidence and dress the right

:41:46.:41:51.

way, you can fool people a lot of the time. You can fool people, I'm

:41:51.:41:57.

meant to be in there. An act like that. Yes. People are on the

:41:57.:42:01.

lookout for that Braying behaviour now a little bit more. Just being

:42:01.:42:09.

posh and shouting doesn't get you. They just tell tow get off your

:42:09.:42:13.

bicycle. "Freddie" Flintoff swapped contribute for heavyweight boxing.

:42:13.:42:23.
:42:23.:42:24.

You've swapped heavyweight for -- politics for television. It is

:42:24.:42:29.

marvellous. And I'm less stressed as well. Any other jobs you fancy

:42:29.:42:39.
:42:39.:42:44.

blagging your way into? Well, I'm always keen to work. All sorts

:42:44.:42:50.

really. I do like the idea of travel documentaries. I'm not sure

:42:50.:42:55.

that is something. Don't tell him that. What are you doing at the

:42:55.:43:01.

moment? I'm in Alan Bennett's new play, People. It is considerable

:43:01.:43:06.

and it has upset the National Trust. You must have done something right.

:43:06.:43:09.

We need to go. That's your lot for tonight folks,

:43:09.:43:12.

but not for us, because with Madonna's infamous "conical bra"

:43:12.:43:18.

being sold at auction this week - for over �32,000! The music was

:43:18.:43:28.
:43:28.:43:36.

Time Out. I wonder who bought Madonna's conical bra. Michael's

:43:36.:43:39.

absolutely determined to get his money's worth at Annabel's tonight.

:43:39.:43:42.

He'll take someone's eye out if he's not careful. But we leave you

:43:42.:43:45.

tonight with a heartfelt plea, after Sally Bercow declared on

:43:45.:43:48.

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