Will we ever grow rich again? This Week's World

Hello, and welcome to This Week's World. Is the party over? Wilbur

will never get rich "Mac or hear from the former US Treasury

Secretary things global growth has gone for good. The meat of the

Brazilians who bet on a boom, now their town is bust. The developers

programme to one big idea, that everything would get back to normal

after the crash, what if that is wrong? We will chat from a few of

the stories making waves. My city of the week is Berlin, the German

capital has passed a law banning air B from operating there because the

authorities say the firm, which encourages people to let out their

homes, is making Germany's housing shortage worse. Being German, they

even have a word for the new law. It is... You can read that yourself!

Nice to have you both here. We will kick off with close encounter of the

week. This was a much awaited encounter between making Kelly and

Donald Trump in America. You will remember last August during the

presidential Bates, making Kelly asked for Trump a difficult

question. You have called woman you don't like slabs and disgusting

animals. She has been chasing him for an interview, and this week,

there was this famous broadcast. What was weird about it is it is

obvious double trap is going after the female bird can he has a big

problem, Hillary Clinton is well ahead. -- the no vote. But this was

a different kind of Donald Trump, a soft, more emotional Donald Trump,

he was asked "What he had retweeted the assertion that she was a bimbo

and he played dumb. He said, was that many? Did I do that? This is

the evolution of Donald Trump from candidate to serious presidential

contender. This is probably the week where we have to start saying, this

guy is series. All around the world we have seen big machismo characters

coming to power, we may need to start thinking they were when.

That's a thought and a half! Will Collier was conspiracy of the week.

It is incredibly disaster to come out of Iran. In recent weeks there

has been a crackdown of Instagram models and fashion photographers,

designers, and a few of them have been arrested in the last couple of

days. The reason the standout is it is the first time they have actively

sought after influential people online -- the reason this stands

out. So Instagram stars have been targeted, but the bizarre turn in

the last day or so that has stood out is the Iranian authorities are

now saying that Kim Kardashian is part of some plot with Instagram to

influence the culture in Iran, and going against essentially what they

want. Is that of fear, tangible fear? It's unlike anything that has

ever happened before. People are very critical of popular culture and

Kim Kardashian that this is the first time a government is actively

says, she is a threat to our society. One of the most

extraordinary story of the week, long overdue rescue of the week, is

what happened in Nigeria. A couple of years ago, there was a widely

reported incident where Boko Haram, and nasty Islamist radical group,

waiting to school and kidnapped nearly 300 girls, 219 were taken

into hiding and as far as we know treated appallingly, raped and

tortured. This week there was a wonderful story of one of the girls

escaping, they don't quite know how exactly that is the first sign of

the vulnerability of Boko Haram, that one of them might be able to

get away. She has met this week with the new president of Nigeria,

Bihari, and he came to power last year succeeding Goodluck Jonathan,

who was widely succeeded as weak and ineffective, all around this world,

we are seeing people looking for strong leadership to hold countries

together, and Nigeria is one of the most important countries in Africa,

it is kind of December integrating. The -- disintegrating. The president

is going to use this interview, this meeting he had with one of the girls

from Chibok, as a way to try and mobilise popular support and say,

let's take the fight to Boko Haram. You are going to tell us about the

sharp elbow of the week! That's one way of putting it! Just intruder,

Canadian Prime Minister, who in the public eye, no last year or so, has

shut out of nowhere. -- Justin Trudeau. He recently kicked up a

fuss because in Parliament, he was rushing over age, and he claims he

accidentally knocked a female politician with his elbow. He said

he was trying to grab this other person in Parliament to drag him

over to another part of parliament, and it kicked up a fuss, where

people caught out on Twitter and was saying, this completely

unacceptable. Does it feel like the honeymoon is over? There are a lot

of people who want to knocking down a peg or two, he is a guy, glamorous

family, poses naked, all that kind of thing, a lot of people are out to

get him. He's one of the few politicians around the world who is

notably centre-left. The centre-left is having a bad time around the

world so there are a lot of people who want to take him down. The

apology he gave this week, he looked like he was about to cry. Apologise

to the member and to all parliamentarians. He said, I am so

sorry, if I have impacted anyone, I am so, so sorry. There is a

vulnerability there that may Donald Trump take note of. On today's big

idea, you may not have heard the phrase secular stagnation, we hadn't

until this programme but it is the than some economists are using to

describe the fact that however hard you work, you may barely get any

richer. For decades now politicians have

been able to tell us we are getting richer. A world becoming homeowners,

car owners, holiday-makers. They have been able to promise this

because globally, the economic growth rate seemed to be on an ever

upward trajectory. Everything the world powers did after the 2008

crash, the bailouts, the stimulus, quantitative easing, were based on

the assumption that growth would return. Extra growth, extra jobs. A

new and ocean for growth. Eight years on, the rate of growth

continues to disappoint, falling well below what our politicians told

us to expect. Many fear that something has permanently shifted in

the underlying economy. But what could that be?

Front man is associated with that phrase secular stagnation was on

anyone else, he is Larry Summers, former US Treasury Secretary who

worked for Bill Clinton, and advised Obama. Secular in this sense means

permanent or chronic said think the world economy has fundamentally

changed? Globally we have had for some substantial time a chronic

excess of desired saving over desired investment. That means more

funds being supplied them are demanded, that means extremely low

interest rates, it means a tendency towards a slow growth, it means

those periods where the economy grows reasonably well are periods of

very large credit expansion, supported by low interest rates,

that raise challenges for financial stability down the road. Secular

essentially, in this context means ongoing or permanent. How long do

you think this will last? I think this is with us for the foreseeable

future. And there has been consistent disappointment about the

recovery, and quite a long time globally since we have had good

growth with a sustainable and sound foundation. Do you feel that the US

is close to recession again? Now, I think that would be too strong a

statement but I do think the odds are better than 50-50 that the US

will have a recession within the next three years and I think when

that happens, if that happens, there won't be anything like normal

capacity for monetary response. Traditionally in recessions, it is

unlikely that they will be anything like that much room to bring down

just rates, that means we're going to have to do things in a different

way. If I asked you for the chances when you're talking about the UK or

Europe, would you put it roughly the same? In the same general rage, I

don't want to assign a specific ability but what we have to keep in

mind is that not a single recession has been forecast a year in advance

by much of anybody, not the IMF, not the US Federal reserve, but the Bank

of England. So the fact that we don't see recession forecasts right

now doesn't mean that they isn't a reasonable chance of recession. And

is there anything in the kind of politics we are seeing in the US

right now that proves your point? I think the slowdown and the

frustration, the lack of opportunities that a weak economy

has for a large number of people is striding politics in many places,

driving the Brexit movement in the UK, driving the rise of Mr left in

France, and I think it has a lot to do with the ascendancy of double

Trump in the Republican party in the US. We have tried quantitative

easing, low interest rates, neither has done the trick entirely, do we

need a new tool to kick-start the economy? I think we need more rights

and recognition of the role of fiscal policy in economic

stabilisation. That means a willingness particularly in

countries like mine, where public investment has lagged badly, to

invest substantially in maintaining the existing infrastructure and

creating new infrastructure, that puts people to work in the short

run, that expands capacity in the medium run, and it removes the

terrible deficit burden that is presented by deferred maintenance.

But we have seen massive stimulus packages under the Obama

administration, we know that when you spend money, you get countries

into higher debt, that can't be the solution. You say that, but in fact

if you look, the Obama Administration to engage in

large-scale spending in the last to back her first two years and you saw

the sharpest move from contraction to expansion in the postwar history

of the US. Then on the congressional pressure, there was a shift back to

austerity in 2011, at which point results in the economy became very

substantially mediocre. Thank you. So in Economist explained by looking

at saving and investment but what of their an even more radical idea?

Haven't given up on evolution by not having enough babies? The rate of

publishing growth has slowed dramatically. Is the workforce now

becoming too small? -- the rate of population growth.

After the crash of 2008, the developed world looked towards the

new kids on the block, the so-called Brix economies. We hope they would

bring the world but perhaps the opposite has happened. We have been

to Itaborai, outside Rio. At one saw itself as the heart of Brazil's

economic revolution, and looked one -- and look what happened.

Lets get the view of the Brics and of Europe about the idea that growth

has slowed for good. With me as a representative of the European

Central Bank, who managed to keep the bank afloat during the crisis,

and the man responsible for rebuilding the South African economy

after apartheid. Thank you for joining us. Do you agree with Larry

Summers that we are now in an ear of permanent low growth? I partly agree

and partly disagree. I consider that it is true that the ageing of the

population all over the world, and particularly in the advanced

economy, is a factor which is adverse in terms of growth. Very

adverse, I would say. On the other hand, it is also true that the kind

of growth that we had during the previous period, before the crisis,

was partly artificial and partly based on a very high level of

overindebtedness. And that is the reason why we have the greatest. So

if you take those two elements, you can explain why we should expect

medium and long-term growth inferior to what we had observed in this

bright period before the crisis. Is that right now, that essentially we

have to wave goodbye to this idea of ever coming back to precrisis

levels? In the first instance, I don't agree that there is anything

permanent about the current low growth, low inflation, low interest

rate environment. But I think the idea that central banks are the only

ones who are capable of uplifting the global economy once again is

wrong. I think we must now put the responsibility squarely on the part

of governments to do their bit in terms of structural reforms, which

are necessary to get us from where we are now, and no longer rely on

central banks and cheap money. And I think if the governments of Europe,

in particular, and the United States take on structural reforms, we could

get out of this situation much sooner than we think. What do you

say to that, that the central banks can't manage this problem? In a way,

I fully agree that if we could embark on active reforms, we would

certainly elevate the growth potential. Also, I have to say I am

convinced that IT, science and the and the advances that we are making

at the moment are something which is positive for total productivity and

I'm sure that we will see this materialising in the years to come.

So, as you see, I am much more optimistic than Larry, still

depending on the structural reforms and Tito has a point. Do you think

that increasing the supply of money is working? There was a period

during which the quantitative easing strategies were working for a while.

Now we are getting to negative banking rates. That is very

dangerous, because it is going to bring about new structural

impediments within the banking systems. The point has been made

that one thing that started as an extraordinary measure it now seems

commonplace. Do you think that authorities have run out of tools?

That none of the ordinary tools are working any more, to kick-start the

economy? First of all, we have to recognise that the measures that are

taken and maintained today are absolutely extraordinary. But that

doesn't mean that they are wrong. The counterfactual would probably be

that the situation would probably be much worse. Do you sense, for

example in Europe, that Brexit would make any difference to your's

growth? I think it would make Anna Norris -- make an enormous

difference for the UK because the losses gigantic if the UK decides to

leave, not only economically and financially but more so even

politically because perhaps part of the UK would decide to leave. So,

again, I'm in full agreement with Mark Carney, with Gordon Brown, with

the UK Prime Minister, when they say that we must stay, we must stay. You

don't think it is wrong for a central banker like Mark Carney to

step into a political row? No, I think that central banks, as I said,

have to tell what they see. They should not, and are not,

substituting governments, parliaments, and the private sector,

but there is an obligation, it seems to me, in the present situation,

which is extremely grave, in all advanced economies and in the global

economy as a whole, for the central bank to say candidly what they see.

We talked a little bit about Europe. When you look at what is happening

in Brazil and the Brics, do you think that that era of growth, that

expectation that was placed on the Brics countries, is now over except

for China? I don't think it's over yet and I think that there is a lot

that the Brics countries can offer. They need to focus in particular on

major infrastructure development programmes that will facilitate

further economic movement and development in their countries. They

also must engage in structural reforms, labour reforms

particularly, as well as reforms in the education system is, that must

tie in with the new demands. So I have not given up yet on growth

coming from the Brics countries. In fact, as part of our work in the

Brics bank, about which I am a director, we try and push very much

the development of these economies investing in renewable energies and

so forth. Let me mention one thing that is very important in the

conversation about structural reforms. One of the major structural

reforms that must be undertaken and concluded is the world trade

negotiations. Those negotiations must conclude. They are important

part of the structural overhang in the global economy. Lastly, do you

think, if we don't see growth return to the eurozone in a big way, do you

feel, as some commentators do, that the euro itself is in trouble? First

of all, my working assumption is that growth is proceeding in Europe.

Second, you might remember that in the first quarter of this year, we

boasted 0.5%, which was annualised a little more than what is given by

the various financial institutions. So I take it that growth will

progressively materialised. That depends on the structural reform.

That depends on appropriate management, appropriate governance,

and I am, of course, calling permanently myself or more to be

done this respect. Thank you both. That's it from This Week's World but

this week the actor Robin Wright revealed she had threatened to go

public about being paid less than Kevin Spacey in House Of Cards. It

worked, they are now both paid the same. We caught up with another

woman who talked about a pay gap tax.

All around the world, women are still getting paid less than men. I

got paid what? It is naturally quite simple, I think. We introduce the

pay gap tax. The pay gap tax is a tax that is paid to all the women in

your company. By looking at the average amount that a man gets paid

and the average amount woman gets paid, that difference is page to all

the women in the company, regardless of performance, regardless of

position to top it gives companies and incentive to really solve the

deeper issues that are at the heart, to do with gender and diversity in

the workplace. But this is unfair on men, isn't it? I definitely don't

think it is unfair on men. Women have been facing issues for

centuries. It is only now that people are starting to talk about

how we can make the workplace and much more equal and safe and happy

place.