Part 1 Vote 2013

The afternoon. It is election day, plus one. Welcome to the BBC's

election Centre, where we are monitoring the results of 35 cars or

contests, a Parliamentary by-election, two mayoral battles,

voting yesterday, lots of the results today, the biggest electoral

test of the year, and there are high stakes for all of the parties and

their leaders, with just two years before the general election. Let's

talk about Nigel Farage. He is celebrating this morning. He says it

has been a remarkable night for his party, as UKIP's performance

exceeded all predictions. He has already gained more than 40

councillors, including 16 in Lincolnshire. He says it marks a sea

change in British politics. We shall see. So far for David Cameron, there

has been a loss of dozens of council seats for the Conservatives. Seats

in Lincolnshire and Gloucestershire have passed from the Conservatives

to no overall control. Labour and UKIP have made some gains in these

areas. But that has been some good news for the Tories in Essex and

Dorset. And Labour? They held onto the Parliamentary seat in South

Shields, that was the by-election caused by the resignation of David

Miliband. It has been Labour since the 1930s, very safe seat, but the

majority was reduced by nearly 5000 votes, did -- although they did

maintain their share of the vote. The Lib Dems finished seventh in

South Shields and lost their deposit, so not the best of

outcomes, but they made gains elsewhere in the local authorities.

As I was saying, we have had a few result in. Eight local authorities

have declared. But 27 to go. Those who have declared stayed up late

overnight, work hard and got the results in. Lots of counting is

going on this morning and into the afternoon. This is Norfolk. We were

talking to one of our correspondence earlier about the surge that the

Greens have experienced in some areas of the East of England. But it

has been a strong conservative area for many years. The latest from

Norfolk is coming up soon. We will also be in Northumberland again.

Some of the depth orations are being made but we will be looking at the

outcome in Northumberland between one o'clock and two o'clock, when it

is a little more final. There have been a lot of boundary changes

there, so it is difficult to make a comparison. And then why don't we

also look at the one local authority outside England that is counting

today, Anglesey. Special circumstances here, where the local

authority was put into special measures by the Welsh government

because of a decade or more of political infighting and a bit of

deadlock. A bit of a scandal in terms of Anglesey's local government

track record. That election was meant to have happened last year,

but is happening this year. It is the one Welsh local authority that

is being contested. Monster come, so stay with us. First, an update on

the news. The Conservatives say people who vote for the UK

Independence Party, which is enjoying unprecedented local

election success, must be listened UKIP has taken more than 40 seats so

far and pushed the Conservatives into third place in the South

Shields Parliamentary by-election. UKIP's leader Nigel Farage is

claiming a sea change in British politics. Around two dozen councils

have yet to return results. They don't have any MPs, they don't

run any councils. But this is a big moment for UKIP. So far, they have

won around one in every four votes cast, making them impossible to

ignore. So the champagne has flowed for the party in what is described

by the prime minister as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists.

have been abused by the entire establishment, and now they are

shocked and stunned that we are getting over 25% of the vote

everywhere across the country. This is a sea change in British politics.

Labour did hold the one Parliamentary seat up for election,

a seat they have held for generations, South Shields. Labour

also won on both Tyneside, whereas candidate for mayor beat the

Conservatives, but both of these victories were must wins. Overall,

the party's performance has been mixed. Some who have not voted

before have come out and voted UKIP, but it is a party of protest, not a

party of government. The Conservatives lost control of

Lincolnshire and Gloucestershire because of UKIP's games, posing

questions for the Tory leadership. We hear you, we understand that

people want to see change. They are impatient. We appreciate that people

are anxious to see problems fixed in this country. The Liberal Democrats

insist that they are encouraged by how they have performed in areas

where they have MPs, but in the South Shields by-election, they

finished seventh, only narrowly beating the monster raving loony

party. All over the country, people have been arguing for Liberal

Democrat policies against the Tories', and in many cases like in

Gloucestershire, where we have gained seats, showing that we are

not complacent. As small as UKIP still remains, it is a breakthrough

for them. There are still eight tussle to come for Labour and the

Conservatives in counties like Staffordshire, just as important in

gauging the relative appeal of the two biggest parties in Westminster.

In other news, the jury in the trial of Mark Bridger, accused of

murdering five-year-old April Jones, has been shown CCTV footage

of his movements around the time she disappeared. Mr Bridger is shown

buying alcohol in a Spar store and his Land Rover is seen outside his

home and being driven locally. He denies murdering April last October.

The Royal Bank of Scotland returned to profit in the first quarter of

the year. The bank, more than 80% owned by the

taxpayer, made a pre-tax profit of �826 million, compared to a �1.5

billion loss in the same period last year. The RBS chairman says the bank

should be ready for a return to the private sector by the middle of next

year. A security man who worked for the

former News International Chief Executive Rebekah Brooks is being

charged with conspiracy to pervert the course of justice. David Johnson

is accused of concealing a computer and other items and will appear

before Westminster magistrates next Wednesday. The charge comes as

Scotland Yard continues its investigations into phone hacking

and payments to public officials. Now back to that at Westminster for

the latest on the local election Welcome back to the BBC's election

studio, where we are expecting a flood of results in the next couple

of hours. We are a quarter of the way through, eight councils

declared, 27 to go. Time for me to introduce the panel here. Grant

Shapps, Conservative Party chairman, Sadek Khan for Labour and the

Business Secretary for the Lib Dems, Vince cable. Nick Robinson is back

with me. Nick, where are we? We have sent for the clowns. That is what

has happened. The man referred to by Kenneth Clarke as the clowns, UKIP,

they are the ones laughing today. It is clear not just in that

by-election, where they came second, but got a quarter of the vote, but

right across England, where they are getting a quarter of the vote in

many places. This is their day. It is not their day in the sense that

they are running large parts of England - they are not. They will

not run any council at the end of this. They are not even winning huge

numbers of council seats. They are way off the sort of total is the

Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and Labour have won. But they are

dictating the political weather. In party headquarters throughout

Westminster, they are thinking, what do we say about Nigel Farage? What

do we do about him? They are trying to comfort themselves. The

Conservatives are saying, this is not a great, but maybe it is not

good enough for Ed Miliband to get to number ten. Ed Miliband's party

are saying it is bad for the Conservatives. And the Lib Dems are

saying, at least we are hanging onto some seats. The honest answer is

that we don't know whether this is a 1-off, massive protest vote to UKIP,

or the beginning of a new political force, putting down roots in local

communities throughout England which will then go on and win. The fact

that we don't know makes it more interesting. Indeed it does. The

tone was set in South Shields with the Parliamentary by-election. It is

worth having a quick look at the figures. They were quite startling

in some ways. We can see that UKIP surged into second place in a very

safe Labour seat. Labour maintained their share of the vote at around

50%. David Miliband's share was a couple of points above that. You

kept came second from a standing start. They were not even in the

contest last time. Before Vince Cable has a go at me, the Lib Dems

did so badly that they are in with the others at 1.4%. Are people right

to say, Nigel Farage said they are not just talking about local issues

here, but that result in South Shields tells you that they will

begin changes in 2015? I don't think it proves that. It does prove what

UKIP are saying, which is that this is no longer a few disgruntled Tory

voters swapping to another party. Clearly, UKIP can amass huge numbers

of votes with almost no organisation, even in Labour

strongholds, even in the north of England. It tells you that yes, this

is a national reaction. But to me, it seems to say that there is a

large portion of the British electorate, about a quarter,

certainly in England, who are looking for the person who will kick

the establishment hardest. And at the moment, they have alighted on

Nigel Farage. Curious - public schoolboy, son of a stockbroker,

from Kent, member of the East India club. Not a natural

antiestablishment figure in many ways, but he has become that figure.

We have seen that sort of figure throughout Western Europe since the

banking crisis of 2008, and it is a question whether he can now get down

and make himself an electoral force in Westminster elections. He

certainly can in Europe. But can he do it in Westminster? And if he

does, how do these established parties react? One last thought -

how they react will shape the future of the coalition government, because

if the Conservative Party emphasises core messages like immigration etc,

you will increasingly see the Liberal Democrat side of the

coalition say, hold on, this is not the coalition we signed up to.

will ask the panel for their views on that in a second. Before then,

let's remind ourselves of where we are.

Let me take you through the results we have had so far. The majority of

these results have been in Tory heartlands, so don't be surprised to

see the Conservatives at the top. The Lib Dems are often in second

place on the councils themselves. Interestingly, Labour have made the

same number of games that UKIP made from a standing start. The Green

party, not a lot of movement. This is what that means in terms of the

councils themselves. Here is where it gets more interesting. The

Conservatives have lost two, which go into no overall control.

Lincolnshire, a very Tory part of the world, although you could say

quite a Euro-sceptic part, too, if I show you what has happened here

today, the Conservatives have lost overall control. They remain the

largest party, but look at this insurgence of UKIP. If I show you

overnight what happened, you get the picture. Labour lost 15 councillors

here last time round. They have not made them all back. We don't know

whether the UKIP vote has cut into the labour vote as well as the

Conservative vote at this stage, but we do know that the Conservatives

were not expecting to lose Lincolnshire. Let me show you

Gloucestershire, which was a bit more safe in Conservative terms. The

Conservatives have lost control. Overnight, there were gains here for

the Lib Dems and Labour and for the first time in Gloucestershire for

UKIP, the Conservatives taking the big hit here. One other comparison

tells an interesting story. In each of these three places, when we do it

as a share of the vote throughout the Council, UKIP is coming in

second place. Away behind the Conservatives in Dorset, but second

place here, second in Hampshire, second in Essex. This is where it

gets interesting. UKIP, Labour and the Lib Dems are all on nine seats

here, a come at a grizzled for what now looks to be equal second place

here. Remember is to? UKIP came second to the Lib Dems here. Many of

the seats here are in that Eastleigh constituency, so they have started

to make gains. And one more which is quite interesting. Before -- because

we have a first past the post system, this does not equal out when

you look at the seats. UKIP got just one seat, but 22% of the share,

putting them nominally in second place.

Important developments in Derbyshire, certainly, that is a key

battleground, so I am going to go there next and speak to Matthew. He

will give us the latest. Labour have just taken Derbyshire, 64

councillors, the magic number was 33 and they have just hit that in the

last few minutes. So the Conservatives taking Derbyshire in

2009, Labour have just taken it back. With me is the transport

secretary, Patrick MacLachlan, thanks to being with me on a

difficult night for the Conservatives. It was a difficult

day, we won this county council four years ago and we had controlled it

for 28 years before that, this was Labour 's number one target, so not

a great surprise. Has the political landscape changed version strong

showings for UKIP as well, no seats won, but strong showing. Has the

landscaped changed and is it a danger for the Tories -- landscape?

Like any elections, you take note of the results. We are in very

difficult economic circumstances and it is not surprising that people

want to see changes and results but what is not lost on me, as a member

of the government, it is not lost on the rest of the government. Grant

Schapps were saying you have got the message and went on quickly to say

what they need to do is accelerate the strategy. Is that getting the

message or ignoring the message? think it is getting the message, it

is showing people what we are doing as far as welfare is concerned, as

far as the economy is concerned and cutting immigration. You haven't

taken time to look at what the voters have said and actually

digestive before you have said you know what they are saying --

digestive net. We have listened to the voters. Why did you not a dust

-- are just your strategy question mark you can't do it overnight, we

will take note of the elections, but we are addressing very difficult

issues. Nobody likes reforming the welfare system but it is essential

that we do it. How do you go forward? In a sense, you have three

ways to look you shift to the right, how do you take on Labour and how do

you keep the Liberal Democrat vote? We lost one seat here to the Labour

Party. We show we are listening, we carry on as we are as reforming the

welfare system is. So no change? Of course we will listen and take note,

but it is also seeing that change coming into operation. A lot of the

changes we are being asked our legislation we have been pursuing

over the last two years and are now coming to fruition. Thank you for

your time. Matthew, thank you for that with that news from Derbyshire

which is that, all though the full figures are not in, but his

information is that Labour have actually taken control of

Derbyshire. City can't, you are already smiling. It is great news

will stop it bodes well for the general election that it is great

news. We lost badly four years ago. We need members and we need members

to be active, willing to stand for council and canvassing, and when you

become a counsellor, you need to be proactive and win Parliamentary

seats. We lost extremely badly in 2009, we got hammered. We got

hammered again in 2010, losing thousands of members over those two

years and to bounce back in one term is fantastic and I congratulate all

of the councillors, the activist, the members, the supporters and the

voters for having the trust, in just three years, to vote Labour again,

when they deserted at in droves, I am very pleased. Grant Schapps?

First of all, I think it was an overall control Council. It was a

hung council, yes. That is because there was a defection from the

Tories to UKIP and we treated like it was going into the elections.

Anyhow, this was the seat that all experts agreed Labour would

definitely win. This is what you have the nickname you have, give

credit where it is due. We bounced back after one term. Let me

respond, from overall control, I'm trying to make the point, not hugely

political, but just saying that John Kirchner said this was one of the

counties Labour was absolutely certain to win and that was a fact,

and congratulations, you have won it, but that doesn't make the kind

of progress that Ed Miliband would be wanting to make it he was on the

road to number ten. That is the fundamental question of today. This

is not a surprising result. Vince Cable, how do you see things?

our point of view, there are two stories. One was the by-election was

absolutely dreadful, and a similarly awful result in Rotherham and the

by-election a few weeks later in Eastleigh, we won, that is the story

of government. In local government, the recent history we have been

given is a pen picture of what happens everywhere, you can get

hammered locally and people doing great work in local councils are not

rewarded, but in opposition you tend to recover. It is disappointing but

that is the story, we are in government and in the past, we would

have taken some of those opposition protest vote and we have not because

we are in government, but where we have been head-to-head with the

Tories in Parliamentary seats where we hold, we have gained ground,

places like Cheltenham, Eastbourne, Dorset, so given that the next

general election, we will be holding our Parliamentary seats, it is

encouraging. Are you surprised in any way by the views of some of our

experts earlier, saying that people expect UKIP to be taking most of

their votes from Conservative supporters, but actually Labour and

the Lib Dems are also affected by this search in support? I have taken

this, but we have to take the UKIP phenomenon seriously. Nick

Robinson's analysis was spot on, we don't know if it is temporarily or

permanent and we have to think about how we deal with it. There is a

general protest but it is added to the fact that we are in a major

economic crisis. It is a bit like the phenomenon you have seen in

Italy, a new party coming from nowhere, not apparently standing for

much with a sense of humour, not nasty fascists, but very much the

populist right. My view is that we have to respect the fact that a

quarter of the electorate voted the UKIP. The policies are very vague

and that is a challenge for us. When it becomes there is -- apparent

there is not much behind it, we have to deal with it. That is the

question, what does engaging with them really mean? We already know

what the Conservatives think it means because the priming is to try

to pre-emptively deal with the UKIP threat, that is why in part we saw a

speech on a possible referendum on EU membership. Last week he said

Parliament needs to have a vote on that in the next few months before

the general election. That is why we had, I suspect, a rather tougher

message on things like the prison regime, immigration, and we will see

that next week when we get the Queens speech, and we are not quite

clear about how the other parties will react to this new threat.

have been able to write things in their manifesto, I was looking at

their transport manifesto and it ten said they were in favour of three

high-speed rail lines. They are now campaigning against the one that

Parliament has legislated for. Nobody says that is completely at

odds with what we saw in your manifesto. Normally, parties have

two deal with their manifestoes and a lot more scrutiny, and today's

results suggest that is a reasonable expectation for UKIP. We will come

back to that, because we hope to speak to you on policy point. I'm

going to join Jeremy for some analysis once again. Yes, just

really looking at where we are at this point and if we go to the map

on the floor, this was the shape of the county councils as we went into

the county councils as we went into the elections, the unitary

the elections, the unitary authorities, and you can see the

the elections, the unitary authorities, and you can This is how

they were left pretty much in 2009, and this is what we have got so far.

It is flashing where we have got a change. You can see Gloucestershire

and Lincolnshire, no overall control. And Derbyshire will

control. And Derbyshire will eventually go read. So, where are

the parties in terms of their share in key wards? We have around 1400

wards we are looking up, we are not even halfway to what we have been,

but we can give you some figures. The Conservatives in first place on

35%. Air in mind, this is very much Conservative territory, so 35% is

where we have them at the moment in key wards. The figure everyone is

talking about is this second one, talking about is this second one,

UKIP on 22%. Pushing Labour into third on 20%. And the Liberal

Democrats are now in fourth on 14%. Again, key wards, this figure will

possibly change as the day goes on, it could stabilise, it could stay

the same. That is where we are at the moment. B show you, if I can,

the change in shares and 2009 and see what has been happening here. We

will have a look for the UKIP column and see how much their boat has gone

up. The purple column is the key, what has happened? We have got them

up by 17% since 2009. You are looking at what were pretty good

elections for the Conservatives four years ago, they are now down by 9%,

so very much hurting. Their coalition partners, however, are

down a touch more, the Liberal Democrats are down by 11%. And also,

we see here with Labour, up 7% on 2009 but 2011 was a terrible year

for Labour under Gordon Brown, 20% of the vote share, so plus 7% does

of the vote share, so plus 7% does not represent any dramatic recovery.

So again, all eyes are on this UKIP figure, 17% up in our analysis of

the key wards. Thank you very much, and that is very useful, because we

want to talk a little more about that UKIP performance in the context

of the other parties. And whether progress has been made, because some

of the progress has been more spectacular in some areas than

others, it has not been a uniform performance. We can go to

Doncaster, we can speak to my colleague there, who is also keeping

an eye on areas like Lincolnshire. What can you tell us? Here in

Doncaster, this is the election that Labour has been pulling out all of

the stops to win, it is Ed Miliband's backyard and all of the

local MPs are Labour. Two thirds of the councillors are Labour. But

English Democrats Peter Davies squeaked in four years ago and is

standing again to defend, and we are getting very close to the result of

the first preference votes. Here, it may all elections, people get to

vote. If nobody has 50% come you go to a run-off of the top two

candidates. You can see the first preference votes, it is so close

between Labour and Peter Davies, now standing as an independent, that

they will go through to the run-off and that is when it gets

interesting, because the other eight candidates in this big field, their

second preference votes will go to those two candidates. Most of them,

frankly, are no friends of labour, so Labour is going to have to be

quite a way ahead in that first cant if it has a chance of winning in the

second run-off. -- first cant. going to be very tight. We will keep

an eye on that but a word before you go, not just about the Maher, but

about the interesting results overnight, and Lincolnshire is

clearly one of the most interesting results for lots of reasons. What

was your take? " Astonishing" was the word that I got from UKIP

supporters. I was talking to them just a couple of days ago and they

were suggesting they would win four or five. 16 was beyond their wildest

dreams. Remember, this is a council that for 20 odd years has been run

by the Conservatives. We never thought UKIP would be the

second-largest party and not the Conservatives off their, but it is

an area that is fertile ground for UKIP because there has been a big

influx of agricultural workers from Eastern Europe, and there have been

a few demonstrations in the past, not set up by UKIP but by local

people who are worried about whether or not there are enough educational

and health facilities to cope with it. So, as I say, that was fertile

ground for UKIP but maybe even they are surprised at just how successful

they have been. Let me stay on the theme of where UKIP has made some

games, and in a few minutes, we may be able to talk to UKIP's City of

London spokesman. With that in mind, I will talk to my colleague in

Taunton about Gloucester. Paul, you are in Gloucester, aren't you?

but I can talk to you about Taunton as well. Both the counties of

Somerset and Gloucestershire were fruitful for the United Kingdom

Independence party last night. We gathered the votes in and counted

till the small hours, and the net result was three games to the UK

Independence Party in Gloucestershire, three games down

the road in Somerset. In Somerset's case, it was not enough to knock the

Tories off their perch. They remain the largest party by a whisker, so

they keep control in Somerset. In Gloucestershire, it has gone to no

overall control. The counsellor is no longer the council leader. He is

still the leader of the largest group, but now this council is up

for negotiation. The talking starts now. It is not that the other

parties did not do reasonably well. Labour went up to nine. And the Lib

Dems did better than they have in most other areas. But it was

undoubtedly UKIP who have caused a bit of a tremor in the political

landscape around here. A short distance from where we are standing

in the Forest of Dean, they picked up no less than three seats. They

also won a straight race against the Conservatives in a by-election for

the district council, so it is all up for grabs now. One other thing

which is salient to what politicians here are discussing today dash it

was all done on a very low turnout. 31% of people voted in

Gloucestershire. The previous lowest level for a county council election

he had been 41%. In Cheltenham, it got as low as 19% in a couple of

wards. It was not a good day for democracy, but it has been a good

day for the UK Independence Party. So now that we have seen the areas

where some of those UKIP games have been made, let's talk to UKIP's City

of London spokesman. We had Mr Farage in earlier, telling us this

was all about sending a message to the three gentlemen sitting next to

me and representing their parties, because in his view, they are not

listening and UKIP is listening. Is that the secret? Yes, it is. You

have seen today, from the result in Lincolnshire, the hard work that our

members and those who have won council seats have undertaken over

the past two to three years. We have been knocking on doors and listening

to the small businessman and the families taking their children to

school and asking them, what are their concerns? When they have told

us, we have started to put that into our policies and we have created the

policies they want to have enacted. Unfortunately, the three political

parties are not listening. There were lots of size in the studio when

you were talking there. People next to me maybe suggesting that your

policies don't stack up. What were you saying earlier, Grant Shapps?

was pointing out that now that UKIP have done well, congratulations, by

the way, it means the party will be subject to the kind of scrutiny the

other parties are. And where you don't have policies that don't stack

up, like campaigning against high-speed rail to in some

constituencies, but when you go back to their previous manifesto, they

were campaigning for three high-speed lines, these are the

types of things which will now come under greater scrutiny. Nick, what

do you think? For example, an immigration, can you clear up for

us, when you say there will be a five-year freeze on permanent

settlement, are you saying that no French, Spanish or German people

will be able to move to the UK if UKIP had the immigration policy it

once and that presumably British people also could not move to Spain,

Germany, front and elsewhere? there is a misunderstanding of the

five-year freeze. We have said immigration should be controlled

both from within the European Union and outside the European Union. With

our five-year freeze, we are saying you don't get the rights of

residents. Therefore, you don't have automatic access to benefits or free

healthcare, for example. We are not here to stop people of talent or

skill coming to the UK. That is why we want a controlled system. But if

Romanian sunned Bulgarians did want to move in the numbers that your

parties might, they would be free to do it, but they would not have

access to some of the services you said? They would only be free to do

it if they were able to pass the visa points system that is part of

our policy. The system already in place under the government you

oppose? Under the current system, anybody from the European Union can

come in. We all know that. There is little those three parties can do to

stop the uncontrolled immigration coming in from remaining and

Bulgaria. But what would you do to stop the immigration from Romania

and Bulgaria? We want to withdraw from the new European Union. That is

why I asked whether you would remove the right of European citizens to

come here, and presumably, they would remove the right of which are

citizens to move to the EU? They will not have the right under the

European Union to come here freely without having to comply with the

rules we will put in place. They will still have a right to apply to

come to the UK, as would anybody from Africa, China or India. We want

to create a fairer immigration system that is applicable to

everybody will stop we need global talent, not just from a part of the

world in Europe which is declining and often just brings us low skilled

workers. The reason I push you on it is that when you go on it is that

when you go onto the UKIP website, and this is arguably the most

important policy UKIP has in terms of driving voters, it describes your

immigration policy as currently under review. All the political

parties are having to review the policies which were enacted for the

2010 general election. We have had to consider the changes that have

occurred over the past few years, including the economy collapsing the

way it is. So like any sensible political party, we have to review

our policies. But an immigration, it means that if a voter were to say to

you, would there be fewer immigrants, you can't give a blanket

answer as to how, or the numbers, or when. We would like to set a limit

of 50,000 a year, although our policymakers are looking at this.

Businesses have said that number is possibly too low. Hence the reason

for the review. There was a physical number for you. Would we stop

immigration from the European Union? Yes, but only for those who have

opened or immigration at the moment. They would have to apply. It is very

clear. But many of the people who have come to you have come to you

because they think the established parties have broken their promises,

and you have just told us the manifesto you ran on at the last

election said there would be 50,000 coming in, but now you are doubly

that a 100,000 as a result of a review. Are you not liable to the

same problem the established parties have, which is that when people look

at the detail, it is not what they thought it would be not say we would

doubling it. I said businesses have suggested that we ought to double

it. Any sensible party considering policy that is important to building

the economic role of this party must do so. Sadly can't, UKIP are making

inroads into areas where Labour have traditionally been strong because

Labour, as they put it, made a hash of immigration when they were in

power. They lost control, in the phrase used by UKIP any times. Is

that something you have found when campaigning? That is one of your

vulnerabilities. Let me begin by congratulating UKIP on their results

last night. Secondly, UKIP have taken votes from all three of the

main parties. You have been doing numbercrunching and it is more from

the Tories, but we must not be complacent. It is arrogant when you

call the supporters of the party picking up a quarter of the votes

clowns. It is disparaging. For those who have voted UKIP, what sort of

usage does it send? Vince has alluded to the politics and the

talent around Europe. Our challenge is to persuade people to vote for

one of our parties. You are right, we have to confess that in an

government, we got some of our immigration policy wrong. We should

have had different arrangements for the accession countries. For

Bulgaria and Romania, we did the maximum possible for those

countries. Next year will pose also is of challenges for us. But it is

important to start by congratulating UKIP for their results and by saying

to their voters, we will do our best to persuade you to trust our party.

Vince Cable, do you have a sense of whether the UKIP surge is driven

specifically by the immigration question, or is it more general

unhappiness, unease and disgruntlement with economic

conditions and the rest of it? a bit of each. Clearly, if you are

in difficult economic conditions, which we have been in since the

collapse of the banking system, immigration becomes a more acute

issue because people are worried about jobs and general insecurity. I

thought the exchange between Nick Robinson and the UKIP spokesman was

revealing, because it makes it clear that in order to deal with this

visceral issue which UKIP have exploited, you cannot deal with it

unless you control migration within the European Union. To do that, you

have to leave the European Union and the European economic area. So this

idea that you have some sort of comfortable free trade area is a

chimera. It is not something they could deliver. But there is a clear

choice - you either stay within the European Union and try to reform it,

or you get out completely, with all the uncertainty and cost involved.

You will just have seen on the screen the latest result we have

in. Emily, any more details? This is how it looks. 24th for the

Conservatives, Labour an 18. We have not had the final count in. I can

show you what happened overnight. It was a big hit for the Conservatives.

Labour lost the same number they lost last time, so they will be

pleased to have seen -- Labour gained the number they lost last

time, so they will be pleased. The Greens took the scalp of the

Conservative council leader here, but it is a council that has often

been in the overall control, so it is not a massive surprise that it

was not taken out right by Labour. They have never had it. As things

stand, no overall control. Labour will be feeling pretty positive

about this, even though it has not been an outright take. We have

talked about it being a mixed picture around the country. The last

I heard was that Labour's vote had gone up by 16% in Warwickshire, so

it does show that there are parts of the country which Ed Miliband will

want to visit and show how well they are doing. There are other parts

where Labour are clearly failing to meet their targets. They dropped 7%

against Gordon Brown's performance in Essex. They are doing well in

Staffordshire. In those parts of the country where we are doing well,

those are constituencies we have won back from the Conservatives. --

constituencies we have to win back from the Conservatives. Let's bring

in the former children's Minister. What do you make of it so far?

a kick in the pants, mostly by UKIP, but it is a kick in the pants for

everybody, not just us. Listening to your UKIP spokesman, they have done

very well. There is no denying it. You have just hate -- had a

discussion with him about immigration and he started throwing

around figures with a 100% error margin, but immigration is nothing

to do with the county council, and yesterday we had county council

elections. UKIP are much more of a threat in other parts of the

country. We may lose some seats to UKIP, but they have been campaigning

on Europe, immigration and international aid. But they are

against all of those things. We don't know what they are for. I

struggled a lot with UKIP people to say, what are your policies? What

will you do locally? What is your education policy? That is what

county council elections are about, and they had no answer. So they will

come under scrutiny now as to what people think they are about if they

are to be taken seriously. I am just going to put to you a quote from a

defeated Conservative councillor in Hampshire, Alexis McEvoy, writing

for the Daily Telegraph, saying "I lost my seat in the UKIP surge

because David Cameron has ditched our core values and no one believes

he will give us a referendum on Europe". How widespread is that

view? We are going through unprecedented economic times, but

people are having their patience stretched. On subjects like Europe,

David Cameron in January went further than any Conservative

leader, even Mrs Thatcher, in promising a straightforward in-out

referendum on our continued membership of Europe. If you are

around my age, you have never had the opportunity to vote on

membership in Europe, it is very different in 1975 when there was a

referendum. We are going to have that referendum if there is a

Conservative government. There is no question about that. Voting UKIP

rather than conservative is going to make that referendum less likely at

the next election, so do Europe really want to see a referendum on

Europe where they can urge people to vote against -- UKIP. Or are they

just posturing. Under a Conservative government, you will have a

referendum on our future relationship with Europe, something

David Cameron has promised. There are other things that have been

mentioned, things we stand for and are in the manifesto, we have

promised. We are taking a long time to deliver and we must deliver and

that is why people are saying they are a bit disappointed, because some

of the things that they look to Conservatives to do, that David

Cameron and the manifesto promised, we are yet to see, and that is the

real message, get on with it. you the joining us. The former

children's minister. I enjoyed in the studio by professor Vernon

Bogdanor, contemporary Dutch professor of contemporary history --

professor of contemporary history at odds of university. Is this a blip

or a change of landscape? It is a remarkable day in British politics.

You normally expect the Government to do badly in these elections and

the opposition to do well and it doesn't have much national asset, it

is the bottom rapidly, but here, the voters are using local elections to

send a message to the politicians at Westminster, because after all,

UKIP's made policy plank is that Britain should leave the European

Union. All of the opinion polls that we have show at least a very large

when oratory of the voters and in some polls, the majority, share that

view, but not of the party leaders believe that we ought to leave the

European Union. And even more important issue in the minds of many

voters is immigration from the EU member states, and where the feeling

is strong, as in Lincolnshire UKIP have done well, and this is also a

problem for all of the main parties, because of course, you cannot limit

immigration from the EU countries while you remain in the European

Union, the Treaty of Rome insists on free movement of people, so that

powerful message being sent by the voters is that they are not being

listened to by the party leaders, and I think it will have a very

great effect. We may even see it in the Queens speech next week, it is

possible David Cameron might produce a bill providing for a referendum, a

binding referendum, before the general election, so that no future

government can really get out of it without considerable embarrassment.

So we may see changes as soon as next week. Commitment on a

referendum, not the legislated one, it has been there for awhile, so in

that case, what is the issue? Why are people still not registering the

fact that if I do actually want a referendum on whether or not we stay

in EU, David Cameron is offering me that, I'm still going over to UKIP.

What is the people here? -- what is the issue. I would imagine that

Nigel Farage would say that David Cameron promised a referendum on the

Treaty of Lisbon but didn't. When he came to power, it had already been

ratified but that did not affect the memory that people have not been

asked their views on Europe since 1975, so it is a serious problem.

Another problem is the coalition. David Cameron hinted he would be

satisfied with parliament voting on the issue of the EU referendum, but

there are two problems. If he had such a vote, he would lose it

because Labour and the Liberal Democrats would combine and voted

down and secondly, this is a coalition government and the

coalition controls what proposals are put in the Queens speech. If the

prime Minster tensed in the lead, his deputy, and says I would like a

bill in the speech next week to have a referendum on the EU dash to Nick

Clegg. I'm just going to predict to you that he will say no. A further

consequence of what is happening today is putting more strain on the

coalition government between a broadly Euro-sceptic Conservative

hearty and a pro-European Liberal Democrat party. Mister Farage has

had time to have a little bit of refreshment before having a rest,

and there he was earlier, just around the corner in Westminster. A

bit of a photo opportunity. He is having a nice time, clearly. It is

worth knowing, for people who don't know Westminster, Nigel Farage has

just been circling within about half a mile, probably less, of the studio

since about eight o'clock this morning. He has been following the

cameras, he talks to us, he talks to competitor television stations,

people abroad, he goes to the pub. Normally, political leaders at this

stage, they head off to a place and take cameras with them. I don't

think you will see Nigel Farage leave this area. He has taken the

time to spoke -- speak to every BBC local radio station, which we often

find hard to get party leaders to do. He is milking his success.

speak to two of our prominent political commentators, they are on

the Green. I am assuming they haven't been to the pub. What is

your take so far? We have had nine declarations in, 26 to go. The bulk

of these results will come this afternoon, but so far, what do you

make of it? The direction of travel does look quite clear, even if some

of the details change later on. This has been Nigel Farage's night and

the problem he has left is it makes David Cameron look like someone who

tried to move his party to the centre but he does not control the

centre ground. Labour have not done too badly, and Mr Cameron is

therefore fighting the centre ground against a lot of competition and his

right flank looks like it has been eaten away remorselessly by UKIP.

Steve? I think this has been the ultimate anti-politics election. And

I don't support this anti-politics mood in the country, I think voters

are wrong to feel so alienated by the mainstream political parties,

but they do. And this presents them all with a big problem, but

specifically the Conservatives. We know what happens when a vote on

1-party political spectrum is fractured, we saw it with the SDP

and labour in the 80s. Although UKIP has appealed in some Labour areas,

it is more to the Conservatives that this is a threat, and there's not

much that Kamran do to stop it or that David Cameron can do to stop

it. It is out there, Nigel Farage having a drink and I think it will

be around at the time of the general election. You are not totally

convinced? I don't think it is an anti-politics vote, it is a vote for

certain policies that UKIP stands for, rightly or wrongly. A greater

degree of Euro scepticism, leaving Europe and stronger control of

immigration. It would be fair to say that some of the votes for the

Liberal Democrats in the past were protest votes. Although they had a

wide range of policies, they didn't have one specifically clear policy

in the way that UKIP does, and if you say it is an anti-politics

vote, you have to explain why it has gone to UKIP rather than to any of

the other minor parties. It is a clear message going to the

Westminster politicians and I think they would be foolish to ignore it.

I'm going to disagree, to be fair. I will give you one fascinating little

detail from the other day, when there was an opinion poll done, bear

with me, on the measles epidemic. It discovered that five times more UKIP

voters feared the MMR jab than other voters. What does it tell you? You

may say nothing at all, but you may say that it tells you that the

mindset of the UKIP voter is antiestablishment, it is suspicious

of the messages they are told by the men in suits. They reject what they

are getting from people who they think have a chance to run the

country, whatever their political colour, and haven't done it very

badly. So in that sense, I think Steve Richards is right. I will go

back to and and Steve. What does this mean for conservative strategy

in particular, and partly Labour, heading into 2015? There is an anvil

is going past. It means that David Cameron has the think quite quickly

about this referendum offer, he made it after the last election on

Europe, but it has not been good enough. The Tory response to UKIP

has been lamentable, certainly Ken Clarke going out like a blunderbuss

saying that you're a closet racist or stupid if you are thinking of

voting for them, it caused an immense backlash, so they have to go

back to basics and will have to try and co-opt UKIP voters. That is very

difficult for a leader who has set himself up as a moderniser who

wanted to colonise the centre ground. Does he try and get a

referendum through before the next election? Can he get it through the

Commons? If it looks like he has lost momentum, and I partly agree

with Steve, but it is about the EU and immigration and unless he moves

on those issues, I think UKIP will do him serious damage. Steve, do you

agree? I do, and I think it explains why David Cameron hasn't got a fully

developed public voice. He is a talented politician so why has he

not resonated more? He cannot decide if he wants to be centre ground, he

used the word "progressive" when he was in opposition, or whether he has

do somehow or another will those going over to UKIP, he has got to

get those boats back. How he does that and have a credible, coherent

political voice, I don't know the answer. And in different ways, Ed

Miliband has served -- similar sorts of dilemmas as to his public page

and we are in a period where these national leaders are themselves

confused that the moment as to have a win that general election, and the

UKIP phenomenon will reinforce that. To some extent, David Cameron, in

policy terms, has tried to address the concerns of these UKIP voters on

immigration and Europe and they are not listening to him. This is a real

problem. Thank you very much. We have had a result in from Cumbria,

Emily. I suspect this will be disappointing for Labour, it has

remained in overall control. This was one of their hopes for the

night, they lost 15 seeds last time around and if I show you what

happened overnight, they may well get back two thirds of those losses,

but they haven't done enough to take control. The Conservatives have

taken a hit, they are down 12 councillors. The Liberal Democrats

gaining a seat. There are important battles around that area but it

remains in overall control. Nick Robinson, we will be stopping for

the News at one soon, and taking a little break, but going through the

afternoon, we have 25 results to wait for. There is a lot to wait for

and as we are finding, there isn't a common pattern. You are seeing

different results in different parts of the country and what you are

hearing from the political parties is what their number crunchers are

doing, what does that mean for marginal seats, so these numbers

exist at a number of different levels. Who runs your town hall, but

also, who will win that seat in two years' time and we way off from

where we should be? I am re-sorry, we are out of time, but it was good

of you to join us. We will pick it up after the news and Nick, we will

be talking to you and Emily and Jeremy. We will take a pause, the

news is coming up on BBC One and on the BBC News Channel and we will be

back at two o'clock with all of the very latest results. As I say, 25

local authorities yet to declare. At the moment, the Conservatives are