Part 3 Vote 2013

Well, hello. Very good evening. It's 5.00pm, and welcome back to

the BBC's election centre. We have had nearly all the results in. We

have had 32 councils declared with just three to go. It's the biggest

electoral test of the year, no question, and the biggest smiles

have been in the UKIP cap for obvious reasons, given the gains

they've enjoyed. Their leader Nigel Farage has been celebrating with a

big surge in UKIP support, over 130 new councilors, the last count, and

he said his party will be changing the face of British politics -

that's the claim, anyway. UKIP's surge has been largely at the

expense of the Conservatives. They have lost over 300 councillors, and

they fail to retain control of ten councils, but they have held onto

17 other councils, so by all means not bad news for them. David

Cameron has said today that he'll be working hard to win voters back

after this result. The day started very well for

Labour with a win in the South Shields parliamentary by-election,

and they have had other successes in council elections in Derbyshire,

but like everyone else, they too have been hit by UKIP's surge in

popularity. They're up, but the experts say by perhaps less than

they'd hoped. Well, now, it seems a good moment

for us to have a look at the counts that are still going on because,

believe it or not, even at this late stage in the day, there are

still things which are unresolved, and one of them is the one election

taking place outside England, and that is in Anglesey in North Wales

where there is an election taking place there for very special

reasons because they have been in special measures. They have been

run by basically commissioners set up from Government in Cardiff. Why?

Because that council has been in a mess, and there has been lots of

in-fighting and a bit of gridlock. They're having this election -

should have been last year, but the election taking place this year.

That is still not fully done, so we'll be keeping tabs on Anglesey.

Also still going on - well, although actually they do look as

though their business is done in Doncaster, don't they? But that is

the second of the mayoral contest we were talking about. We have

already had North Tyneside declared overnight, but Doncaster there -

they seem to be taking a break, and I think their work is probably done,

so hopefully, fingers crossed, after eight hours, I think, of

counting in Doncaster, after the second round run-off between the

Labour candidate, mayor Peter Davis standing as an independent, we may

get a result in that Doncaster mayoral contest, so stay with us

for that. With me - we have had a bit of a change in the studio again.

Nick Robinson is back with us. Good to have you with us. Chris Grayling

for the Conservatives and we have Ed Davey from the Lib Dems. Thank

you very much indeed for coming in. We'll be back in a second because

we want a quick update of the news with Jane.

Thanks, good afternoon, again. David Cameron says the

Conservatives must show respect for voters backing UKIP, whose members

he wants dismissed as fruit cakes. The UK Independence Party has

enjoyed unprecedented success in local elections, gaining more than

130 seat social security far - that mainly at the expense of the Tories,

who are down 320 and were pushed into fifth place in the South

Shields by-election. The latest details come from our political

correspondent, Ian Watson. CHEERING AND APPLAUSE

They still don't control a single council, yet UKIP were poping the

corks. This is why - local authorities can't bring Britain out

of the EU, so with around a quarter of the vote and more than a hundred

councillors, they say this is proof that they have broadened their

appeal. We have been abused by everybody, the entire establishment.

Know they're shocked and stunned we're getting over 25% of the vote.

That is real change in British politics. They're now the official

opposition in Lincolnshire and Norfolk. Today David Cameron's tone

towards UKIP was less hostil. no good insulting a political party

people have chosen to vote for. Of course they should be subject - and

they will be subject to proper scrutiny of their policies and

plans, but we need to show respect for people who have taken the

choice to support this party, and we're going to work really hard to

win them back. The Conservatives were braced for big losses at these

election, but given the strict choice, they'd rather lose out to

UKIP than Labour. Ed Miliband's party easily held the parliamentary

seat of South Shields and won the mayoral contest in nearby North

Tyneside but despite some victories in less traditional territory too,

Labour weren't performing as well as they did in the County Council

elections than they did in 2005 when they won the general election.

The Labour leader was in Hastings today to take his battle to the

south. I recognise going around during this campaign the vote for

UKIP - the two-thirds who didn't vote - there are still lots of

people saying can anyone turn this country around? I believe we can.

The leader sees UKIP as a passing party of protest. People might be

attracted to the simple answers the UK Independence Party is offering

to deal with this country's complex problem, but I don't think they

have the answers to the dilemmas we face as a country. I believe the

Liberal Democrats do. UKIP were recently described by senior

Conservatives as clowns but today Nigel Farage was able to celebrate

being taken more seriously all- around.

In other news, the jury in the trial of Mark Bridger, who is

accused of murdering April Jones, has heard a statement from the

five-year-old's mother. Coral Jones Coral said she initially didn't let

her daughter play outside on the night she went missing but relented

after April had a little tantrum. Mark Bridger denies abduction and

murder. Our correspondent is following the case at Mould Crown

Court. Bring us up to date with everything the jury has heard and

seen today. The raw emotion of the statement from April's mother

really came through even though it was just words read out by a lawyer.

She spoke of her panic when April disappeared, how she searched

everwhere, even in the bins. The jury were shown CCTV footage. We

can show you some of that now. This is an image of April taken from the

leisure centre just less than two hours before she disappeared. It's

one of the last images ever recorded of her. The jury were also

shown some footage of Mark Bridger the day after April had disappeared

walking his dog. This is taken from a police helicopter. The

prosecution say it's strange that he didn't look up at that

helicopter when everyone in the town was looking for April. He

seemed to have other matters on his mind, they say. This case will

resume on Tuesday with evidence from the child that was playing

with April when she was allegedly abducted. Jane?

John, thank you. The Royal Bank of Scotland returned

to profit in the first quarter of this year. RBS, which is more than

80% owned by the taxpayer, made a pretax profit of �826 million. That

compares to a loss of �1.5 billion in the same period last year. The

chairman of RBS, Sir Phillip Hampton, says the bank should be

ready for a return to the private Those are some of the main stories

today. Now let's return to the team at Westminster for the latest on

Well, thank you very much, Jane, and welcome back to our election

studio here in Westminster where we have been monitoring these events

coming in all day. Some of them, of course, took place overnight. We

were discussing them this morning. We have had a flood of results this

afternoon. We've got three to come in, and at this point I am going to

ask Nick for his take on where we are. What would you say? What has

changed I think as a result of these elections is how most people

will look at UKIP. Before today there were plenty of people who

said, look, it's a pressure group. It's not a political party. It's

now putting down roots in communities throughout England, not

the UK. We're largely getting elections in England today. They

said it was merely a temporary home for disgruntled Tories. We know

they're willing votes not just from ex-Tories but from Labour and

Liberal Democrats too. They said they only matter in European

elections. This is a local election, and they sure as hell matter today.

What we don't know is how durable it is. Nobody can possibly know

that but we now know the gentlemen in front of us who represent the

three big established parties are now having to look at how life in a

four-party electoral world might mean. I think you'll see instant

reactions from all of them. The Prime Minister in the Queen's

Speech will react. The focus, I am told, will be immigration I think

the Labour Party will focus on how they reconnect. The Liberal

Democrats too will have to angst away at how they reconnect with the

sort of protest vote as they once naturally got. Interesting. We'll

discuss that in a second with our guests, but I think it's a good

moment for Emily to take us through what we have had and are still

waiting for. We'll still got two councils to

hear from, but if you have just joined us, let me show you the

scoreboard picture of the day so far. Most of these are comfortable

Conservative areas of the country, the south, the south-west. It's not

surprising to see that most of the councillors remain Conservative -

1,076, but here are the losses. They have taken a hit of 320

tonight. Labour pushing forward in second place with 433. They've made

gains of 260. Some will say that's not the gains that they were really

looking for. They failed to take back a couple of key targets they

would have liked to see. The Lib Dems - don't forget, now a party of

Government with the Conservatives on 338 - they have taken a hit too

tonight - maybe not as bad as the one they have taken at local level

last year, but still 106. UKIP, the big story of the night, now sitting

on 144. That's probably three times what they imagined at one stage

they could ever take here - gains of 136. A good night for the Greens

who have added on more modest gains, but still on 22. In others I can

just show you briefly - you'll see some of the residents and so on.

The BNP have lost the three seats they held in 2009. What does that

mean for councils themselves? The Conservatives sitting on 17, but

they have lost ten. They have lost control of ten councils tonight.

Two of those have gone Labour, and eight of those have gone into no

overall control. Let's have a look at the gains and losses - just

losses for the Conservatives. These cities all into no overall control.

This is the one council that the Labour Party have taken from the

Conservatives. And let me just show you that as gains Nottinghamshire,

Derbyshire - places Labour really expected and wanted to take back

tonight - there's a couple of others still to come in. Perhaps

the stir of the night is best exemplified if I show you this one,

which just compares a few of the results in different parts of the

country, and you can see here the kind of inroads that the UKIP party

is making in terms of that share. The change in share - UKIP up 24%,

up 21% in Lincolnshire, and in Kent 20% as well. They gained 17 seats

in Kent. They gained 16 in Lincolnshire. Let's have a look and

see what that's done to the political landscape of this council.

It's pushed it into no overall control. It's taken the nierst that

little slip of blue. That tells us the Conservative Party no longer

control it. Here you go, then. They're the largest party, but you

can really start to see the way that UKIP vote is eating into what

might have been Labour gains and what might have been at least a

Conservative hold. If I show you that as a percentage, again, you

start to see the picture - UKIP moving into second place, so that,

as Nick was saying, starting to become quite an important factor in

English politics, at least. Emily, thank you very much for

setting the scene for us. Lots of you I know will have been joining

us for the first time. We'll recap on lots of the developments for you.

Emily there with some of the hard facts, if you like. I am going to

go to John Hess in hottinghamshire because he can talk to us about the

two Labour gains there. For those viewers who are just joining us in

the early evening like this just underline for us what's gone on in

your region? Huw, this is significant. This is the River

Trent. On this side is Nottingham city council, have been much a

Labour fortress until an hour ago. The County of Nottinghamshire was a

Conservative-controlled authority. The Conservatives have controlled

the authority for the last four years. It looked touch and go at

some stages whether Labour would be - the last handful of wards

declared in parliamentary terms is they fall into the Nottingham

suburbs in those swing seats like Broxto, which at the moment is held

by the Health Minister - constituencies like Sherwood, the

outskirts of this city where there was a straight fight between Tory

and Labour, where UKIP, although they polled well, weren't really a

factor, and Labour have pull an awful lot of effort into those

wards, and this evening it looks as though it's turned up the goods, so

Labour, which, you know, at one stage, it looked as though they

would be the largest party, but wouldn't have overall control -

tonight are celebrating because they've just made it. They have

that majority that they wanted. The Conservatives - they're

But - and this is the key thing - they believe they might be able to

cut some deals with the Liberal Democrats who didn't do nearly as

badly in Nottinghamshire as was feared and with a handful of

independents. There will be tough spending decisions to be made here

over the next few months or so, and the Conservative opposition, which

it is now, believe Labour won't be able to have it their own way, but

certainly tonight Labour are celebrating, as they're celebrating

in neighbouring Derbyshire. The Labour leader Ed Miliband is on his

way to ill friston in Derbyshire, but very close to Nottinghamshire

to thank party workers and join in the celebrations. Exen -- when you

compare the Labour performance in Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,

what are the key points? The key thing is a lot of the suburban vote

that's disappeared has started to come back to Labour. There is

evidence in the old coal field areas, some of the support has come

back to Labour, not completely. The Independents in places like

Mansfield have been able to send back their candidates and their

councillor, but there is evidence that across Nottinghamshire,

especially in North Nottinghamshire where the Labour vote disappeared,

We should mention the by-election in South Shields yesterday, in

which Labour held on with a reduced majority but maintaining their

share of the vote. A big difference in the result from 2010 was the

surge in UKIP. Let's talk to Richard Moss from BBC north-east.

For the benefit of those viewers who may not have been with us

during the day, underline how this by-election panned out. In a way,

this was a predictable result and a surprising one. Predictable in

terms of the Labour victory, a seat the party has held since 1935. It

is a real heartland. David Miliband left here, his successor with a

majority of 11,000. The majority came down to 6000. Labour were

satisfied if not ecstatic. But the change was the surge in votes for

the UK Independence Party. They did not have a candidate in the 2010

general election but scored 24 last night and came a clear second. They

seemed to benefit from collapse in support for the coalition parties.

The Conservatives slipped to third, halving their boat from the general

election, but the biggest collapse was for the Liberal Democrats. They

came 7th out of nine, polling 1.4%, the lowest share they have ever

polled in a by-election, and they lost their deposit. Those that

finished below them were the Monster Raving Loony Party and an

eccentric candidate he believes he is the true king of the British

people. Thank you. Chris Grayling, when we listen to

that, I suppose you have to confront again at the end of the

day, we have been at it for hours, but basically discussing different

aspects of the way you respond as a Government, certainly as a

Conservative Party, to the threat UKIP clearly poses in some

sensitive areas. What is the nature of your response this evening?

course, if you lose seats in a mid- term set of local elections, it is

a wake-up call. The party has to take a step back and think, what

else do we need to do to reach out to people whose support we will

need come the general election? At the same time, it would be a huge

mistake for us to be blown off track with the strategies we are

pursuing on dealing with the deficit, tackling problems with

welfare and education, because these are changed as the country

needs. Yes, we are taking some difficult decisions, but if we

allow ourselves by one set of disappointing results to be blown

off course, that will say that as a Government we are not clear in the

direction we are following and not trying to do the right thing for

the country. We must be responsive and thoughtful to this, but also

careful not to over-react. That is the balance which lots of viewers

may find difficult to understand, you are not going to be blown off

course but you need to do things to show you are responding to what

happened. Where do those changes happen? If you look at what UKIP is

arguing, and some of our supporters, if we want to sort out problems

with the Human Rights Act, we want to address our issue of - but where

the issue of our relationship with the European Union. The other

parties outnumber us in the House of Commons. Bright or wrongly, they

are entitled to their views, but Labour and the Lib Dems do not want

to address those issues in this Parliament. So we cannot do some of

the things our supporters want us to do. We have to be open about

that and have clear plans for our next manifesto and demonstrate

commitment to those changes. But we are clear that there are

limitations in coalition to what we are able to deliver. The Queen's

Speech, is that likely to have elements within it which will be

seen as a response partly to what we had seen on the night? There

will not be a great change to the Queen's Speech of the back of these

local elections. At this stage it is being written somewhere in the

wilds of craftsmen England. There will not be a great reaction where

it is torn up and rewritten. What there should be in the Queen's

Speech and there will be is a sensible balance of proposals

across the spectrum which deliver some of the solutions to the

problems Britain faces. The centre of that, I am told, will be

measures on immigration. In a sense, you have seen a pre-emptive

response to this from the Government. Chris Grayling himself,

as Justice Secretary, had a tougher prison regime coming in the last

week. From the Prime Minister, the promise of tougher measures on

immigration, the promise of an EU referendum if the Conservatives

were in power on their own. In a sense, we have had a lot of the

promises. The intriguing thing Chris Grayling is suggesting, I

think, is that we will have to have a twin approach from the

Conservative Party. Here is what they would do in Government, and

here is what they are, advertising what they would do if they were not

in government that the Liberal Democrats. And they will not wait

until the manifesto to do that but they will tell us over the next two

years, we would like to give a referendum but we cannot, we would

like to rip up the Human Rights Act, but we cannot. Third.? Coalition is

a compromise. The �10,000 tax-free allowance is something we want. The

people have begun to realise that that is benefiting them, but not

enough people I hearing that message. So part of the message for

the Liberal Democrats is to get our successes in the coalition

government over to people. We are in government for the first time in

many years and is delivering on our policies, making a fairer society.

We have also got to expose some of the UKIP policies more. Look at

what they are saying. They are talking about massive cuts in tax

for the richest people in the land. The Liberal Democrats are against

that. You are the ones who left of the richest. Under Liberal Democrat

and Conservative coalition the richest in the land will pay more

in tax in every year of the coalition than in any year of

Labour, who had a very bad record on taxing the rich. UKIP want to

reduce the tax on the rich, the opposite of the Liberal Democrats,

wanting to take the Bourrust out of tax. We need to get our message

over but also to expose UKIP for some of its weird policies. We will

be joined by Nigel Farage for the second time today in a moment. He

will come in a couple of minutes and we can put those points to him.

On the Green, John Barron, Conservative MP for Basildon and

Billericay. On the EU context, what are you hoping for in light of what

has happened? I hope the party leadership will listen and learn

from two key errors. The first is that we must take UKIP seriously.

It is not simply a protest party. And I'm afraid Europe does feature

in that and we need to address that issue. Secondly, the party

leadership needs to accept there is deep public mistrust when the

public hear politicians making promises about European issues. Too

many have been broken in the past which is why 100 Conservative

backbenchers have come together and are trying to urge the Government

to bring forward the legislation into this Parliament for the

referendum in the next. That would show serious intent and would

address some of the key concerns where, certainly in Essex and I am

sure up nationally, many natural Conservative supporters are voting

UKIP because of the issue of Europe. Is he likely to be satisfied by the

events in the months ahead, or not? David Cameron has talked about the

need to ensure that our supporters, and those who we need to win back,

have the comfort of knowing that a Conservative government would

deliver in Europe. I think we both know that the party is sufficiently

united on this issue, that it is inconceivable that we could back

away from this promise. What do you make of that? That is only half the

argument. We have always said, we raised this issue a year ago, that

the commitment has to be credible and believable. Well, it is

credible, because we haven't out option as part of the referendum in

the next Parliament, but it is not yet believable. What would make it

more believable is if there was support for legislation in this

Parliament. Rather than simply an election manifesto promise. To many

of those have been broken in the past. Make a serious attempt in

this Parliament to pass the legislation enabling the referendum

in the next Parliament, and I think that would address many people's

concerns that you simply cannot trust politicians, because they had

so does before and nothing has come of it. Legislation in this

parliament would address that point. I think, and many think likewise on

the Conservative backbenchers, it would take a central plank of

support away from UKIP. Why bother voting For UKIP when you have a

mainstream party offering you an in-out referendum and are serious

about that offer? Are you saying the Prime Minister should pick a

fight he is bound to lose because you do not have the votes to get a

referendum in the House of Commons, and he should try to get a

government these of legislation despite the fact that his coalition

partners will say, no, we are not doing it? I do not think it is

quite obvious that he would lose. I know of Labour backbenchers and one

or two liberals who would support the legislation, who have argued

for a very long time that we need an in-out referendum on Europe

because the EU has fundamentally changed since we first joined it

and last consulted the people on it in the mid- 1970s. As you well know,

Nick, it does not have to be a government piece of legislation. I

would like that to be the case. If the Prime Minister cannot go that

far, he could certainly support a Private Member's Bill, if we could

bring it forward into the house, and make clear to everyone that it

has conservative backing. That would be an interesting situation

and I think he could succeed. But even if he failed, put this to you,

at least people would understand that he was serious in his intent.

Win or lose, I think there is no downside from pushing for it from

the government's point of view. Would that not highlight his

weakness, with the phrase in office but not in power coming to mind, if

you say we will try to pass legislation but do not blame me if

it does not go through because I am only the Prime Minister? Not if he

is genuine in trying to get it through. If it is a ploy to knock

it into the long grass, I agreed. But if he is serious in his attempt

to get this through, as long as you are bold heart and you push these

things through, I do not think it matters if you fail as long as you

have failed for the right reasons. In other words, you have given it

your best and people will understand that. The idea that you

do not put a piece of legislation into parliament because you are

worried about losing, I think is a nonsense, frankly. Let him try,

really push it hard, and people would know he is serious. I do not

see there being any political downside to losing but I think it

would be far closer than you think, Nick. I know Labour and Liberal MPs

who would support this. Have you discussed this with David Cameron?

We have, last year, but we were focusing on getting the referendum.

When we first put the letter in an garnered the backbench support, we

were focusing on the referendum in the next Parliament. It is not the

ideal situation but senior Tory backbenchers have to come on TV to

negotiate with the Prime Minister about how to deal with an election

setback. We have negotiated a meeting. Both we have been having

trouble getting out of Number 10. - - we have been trouble getting out

of Number 10 the details of that meeting. All that I am saying to

you is what I have said to him briefly in the division lobbies

there was hoping to put to him in a constructive meeting. But I think

he has got the message already. These election results show that he

has to start taking UKIP seriously. The best way to show that he is

serious about this issue is to support legislation in this

Parliament for that referendum in the next. If he did that, it begs

the question, why bother voting UKIP? Clearly, he basically said

the Prime Minister is not taking them seriously and that has been

the whole problem, the reason you are confronted with these gains

today, he is not taking them seriously. I do not think that is

right. I have great respect for his views. In the last month the Prime

Minister spent a lot of time on the campaign trail. There will be a lot

of thinking now. We have two years until the general election, one

year until the European elections. The Prime Minister has said we have

to consider these things carefully. One thing is clear, we cannot go

into the next election with the electric having any doubt about our

commitment to renegotiating the membership and Anyon-out referendum

for the UK population to say, are we happy with the deal to be done

or do we want to leave? Both basically, at any plan to bring

legislation forward on this basis is something you are simply not

going to play with. It was not in the coalition agreement and Nick

Clegg has made clear he will not countenance this. I do not think it

is a runner. What would you do if it happens? Listening to Chris and

John talking... What would your attitude be? We do not think it is

the right thing to do. Huge uncertainty for business. Nothing

would deter foreign direct investment more. Listening to them,

I am reminded of the John Major government and the Maastricht

rebels. I do not deny the EU is an important issue, but if the

Conservative Party seeks to enter into a bidding war and see who can

have the most right-wing policies, they will lose. I am sitting here,

flanked by Cabinet ministers, and not once have we heard the words

growth and jobs. That is the number one priority for people. I was at

my Jobcentre Plus office this morning, and I have seen long-term

unemployment go up by 20%. The number one concern right now is

that people want more jobs, better pay and the cost of living rises

addressed. They had seen a situation where under this

government we have seen pay packets drop by �1,700 on average and they

have not said anything about it. We have spent five minutes talking

Chris actually talked about - Chris talked about... Millions of pounds

- a hundred thousand-pound tax cut. You're wrong. We are focusing on

this. What we're seeing the more private sector jobs created, a

million more. You talk to the economists, and what you'll find is

economists are saying they're surprised... People are earning

less money. Rather than interrupting all the time, let's

listen to the facts. The facts are from independent economists they're

surprised we're managing to create so many jobs despite the growth

difficulties. We're doing that because we're focusing on helping

the unemployed. That is the right thing to do - employ young people,

unemployed people. Labour fail to doso. Stop. We have another result

in. I was telling you about Doncaster where the mayoral contest

was taking place. That result is in. I think they were counting for

eight hours at least but they have it. It is a Labour gain, and Peter

Davies, who was standing as an Independent, a English Democrat,

has just been pipped at the post, really, and if you look at the

share of the vote, you'll see that 51%, 49%, and then that was in the

second round, of course, because there were other candidates there

too. It's that supplementary vote system, so they went into the

second round. That's why it took so long. What we're going to do now is

think about the landscape at the end of today, and Jeremy Vine is

going to tread through the landscape for us. It's quite a good

way to just visualise the map, isn't it, Huw, and see exactly how

it's changed, so we start here with the way it looked at the start of

this extraordinary 24 hours. I am just reminded here how much blue

there is, Conservative blue. These were very much elections held on

the Conservatives' home territory, a patch of red up there, but bits

of grey, not too much - grey meaning no overall control - mainly

blue. These were areas where the Conservatives were strong. Now,

well, they have been dislodged in lots of places - Cumbria goes to no

overall control, Lancashire no, overall control. You heard earlier

from Nottinghamshire - it goes into Labour red, Derbyshire, Labour red,

Warwickshire no, overall control, Gloucestershire, no overall control,

East Sussex no, overall control. There are lots of places where the

blue has been swept away by grey, and the question now is what the

parties make of these results with this extraordinary intervention of

UKIP and a vote for UKIP the like national share, bring it on here -

and remind us what the parties have done. So these are the shares of

the votes we think the parties would have had had this election

have been held not just in these mainly Conservative areas, but

across the whole country. We have Labour first on 29% - a big proviso

with this figure is it's actually lower than Labour scored in any

local election in all their years of opposition between 1979 and 1997.

Then we come to the Conservatives - 25%. We have been doing these

projected national shares - the BBC has - for a long time, since the

early '80s. We have never seen the Conservatives down that low in

local elections on projected national share. It's a very low

result for them. This is the extraordinary one that's driven all

the debate in the studio and all the analysis - UKIP have suddenly

not only got this 23%, they're now in our histogram. They're appearing

as a bar in our graph for the first time. We have four main parties for

the purposes of this election. They're on 23%, extraordinary. The

Lib Dems have never scored as low as 14%, and there they are in

fourth place. The others, by the way, on 9%. Now we look at a big of

context and look back at how the three main tarties if I can still

call them that, have done in previous elections going back to

2005. Bear in mind the seats we're talking about here were last fought

in 2009. The time before that was 2005, the same day as the general

election, so as you would expect, the Labour were ahead, only just,

in the equivalent parallel local elections, so Labour 33,

Conservatives 31. Labour won in a general election that day. Their

fortunes then were reversed, and they come down to 20% here. That's

the absolute dash days of Gordon Brown with the Lib Dems on 26 and a

pretty good result for the Conservatives, 35%, who are

beginning to get the centre of power, as indeed they then manage

to get that power - 2010 election - not an out-right majority for them,

but they're in Number Ten along with the Liberal Democrats, because

then all the complications start and the problems of the coalition

Government mount, and you can see the Lib Dems seem to be taking the

biggest hit here - 16% last year, 31% the Conservatives - there we

leave - that's a trajectory that makes perfect sense, doesn't it?

The coalition Government comes in. Labour rebound under Ed Miliband

and both the Conservatives and more so the Lib Dems start the lose.

Then we have this result. Labour then come down to 29. The

Conservatives come down to 25, and the Lib Dems come down to 14, and

we're seeing the three main parties, if I can call them that - sounds

like a bit of an unfairness to UKIP to call them that today - they're

all under 30%. That's how extraordinary this election has

been. We're still going to be digesting who has lost their votes

to UKIP. We assume it's the Conservatives usually, but it might

be a much more complicated picture than that and it's given us an

amazing election result in midterm. Certainly has. Thank you very much.

Jeremy Vine there. Let me just reinforce those figures from that

projected national share, and Professor John Curtice, our

resident number cruncher, numbers expert, is send me a few pointers

about this, saying the first time all the three main parties have

been below 30%. Anglesey is now through as a hung council despite

those Plaid Cymru gains - it's still there as no overall control.

That count has been going on for most of the day. Back to the PN,

the equal lowest figure ever for the Conservatives - the lowest ever

figure for the Lib Dems and Labour's performance, says

Professor John Curtice is worse in the last two years, though better

than at the end of Gordon Brown's Government at the end of 2010. Just

the figures once again for you of this projected national share - a

very quick sentence on what that is - it's a projection - it's not a

forecast or prediction, OK? It's a projection of what might have been

the picture had these elections been taking place everwhere, which

they haven't, obviously, it has Nigel Farage has joined us in the

studio - looking quite bright and breezy, actually, given you were

here, what, eight, nine hours ago? Yes, it has been a long, but

interesting day for us, a fascinating day for British

politics. Something has changed here, and I know that everybody

would like to say it's a little shorm-term stamp your feet protest.

It isn't. Something fundamental has happened here, and people have had

enough of three main parties. They're called mainstream - I am

not sure why, but three parties that increasingly resemble each

other. The differences between them are very narrow. They don't even

speak the same language that ordinary folk out there who are

struggling for housing and jobs speak. I think this is really

interesting and gives us a position on which we can build. For UKIP,

the first-past-the-post system is a nightmare because we draw Tory

votes, Labour and Lib Dem votes - we're spread across the country.

What we have seen in the first time in places like Yarmouth, Thanet,

Boston is UKIP winning majoritys in some of these towns and possibly

following on from the model of the Lib Dems in the '80 and '90s - we

won our target on these resources. I think today is a game changer.

Were you looking for a form of constitutional reform given what

you have just said in terms of how your votes are evenly spread? Do

you want to see a more proportional voting issue? I was astonished with

the Lib Dems campaigning for 30-40 years for proportional

representation, but Clegg sold out to the Conservatives to have a

referendum on AV. It was not even proportionate. What do you want?

think we can learn about the German. They have the AV plus system. It

means you have two votes and keep the benefits of this system. The

member representing the town or the suburban area, but you also get a

second ballot paper where you can express an opinion. We're using it

in a sense already in the Scottish Parliament. We're using it in the

Welsh Assembly. We're using it in London. That is what I would like

to see, then any significant minority view would get a say in

Westminster, and our democracy would be healthier and our turnouts

I think would go up. What do you do with power if you get it? It's a

long way off for UKIP, so that's a premature question. What we have

done overnight and today is we have taken our first substantial step

towards being a party that credibly could win seats at Westminster. I

think power is some way off but I would argue when it comes to power,

we haven't got much. We have transferred most of our power

across the English Channel to the institution of the European Union,

and the British Government are really like lapdogs most of the

time, impotent really on so many issues, so today the ultimate

debate of power is where is it? Is it here in London or somewhere

else? Where is it? My question to Nigel - and he's clearly made good

gains today but if come the general election UKIP supporters cost the

Conservative Party seats in parts of the country where we have

currently got representation, and if UKIP don't take those seats,

that's - we are the only party committed to an in-out referendum -

in a sense the danger for UKIP is they end up helping Labour into

power and end up with no referendum. To be honest, Ed Miliband is going

to promise a referendum before the election. Of course he is it's

become almost a tradition now, since '97 that at every election

all three parties promise a referendum and none of them deliver.

Even if it was just David Cameron, if he was still your leader that

promised it, the problem I would have with it is he did all this

before - the cast-iron guarantee, really staked his reputation. You

won the Euro election in '09 on the back of this cast-iron guarantee.

Your literature said it, and he never meant it. Thes by Bonn treaty

was ratified by the time we got to power. Weasel, weasel! Bit of the

Lisbon treaty have been ratified and come into place since this

coalition Government took power. If you've got the political will, you

can do what you like, and Harold Wilson in '75 held a retrospective

referendum. OK? He did it on the Treaty of Rome. You could have done

that, but your man actually to gain vote and try to win an election

basically made a promise he never intended to key. That's my problem

with your leader. Do you think most of your supporters and your voters

vote for you over Europe? Or is your impression they're voting for

you for a number of reasons? think that Euro-scepticism, which

used to be - often Labour too, but when the Maastricht division - was

led by Tory MPs who thought if we told the British public the

legislation that is absolutely fundamental to this country, we'll

wake them up and storm the barricade - hang on. Let me finish

- we don't talk about Article 136 but the consequences of Europe on

people's everyday lives and in particular what has been the game-

changer in many, many ways over the European debate has been open-door

immigration policies to poor European countries since 2004.

There's hell of outrage out there particularly from unskilled people

who can't find jobs and are beginning to feel discriminated

against their own country, so we fought this local election campaign

says to people local councils provide services. I went to Boston

- do you know the average waiting time at A&E there is nine hours

because the population has exploded and the infrastructure isn't there

to meet it. I am saying to all three of you that I really think -

and this is not a prejudicial comment in any way at all - but I

really think it is irresponsible given a million unemployed young

people for us to open our doors to Romania and Bulgaria

unconditionally on January the 1st. Everyone is asking Nigel a question

and he has a reputation of being a straight talker and doesn't mess

around and gives a straight election. How many seats are you

going to win in the next election? I haven't got a clue. I am not a

politician like you. I haven't got a clue. 50? I couldn't give a damn,

actually, about elections and career and position. What I care

about is getting our country back after what I think has been an act

of great betrayal. Can you answer my question? I think that's a

little bit arrogant and not like you... I asked you a question. Do

you think it is right to open the door to Bulgaria and Romania next

year? Answer that. We have a treaty only gay, as you know, and we don't

want to break the law. You would be able to do that because you would

pull Britain out of the EU and therefore not have those

obligations. I understand that's your position. But of course, other

EU countries might react. We have more British citizens living in

other EU countries than there are EU citizens living in Britain, and

if other EU countries said you're not allowing your people to come

here - we're sending all your British citizens back, we'd have

more people coming into the UK than would leave. Sometimes you don't

tell the full story, do you? every one Briton... Is it true you

don't tell both side of the story? For every one Briton working inside

the European Union there are now five EU citizens working in Britain.

A lot of the British citizens living in other EU countries are

retired there, so if they send them back, they wouldn't be able to work

here because they're retired. What you're suggesting is people leave -

forced out of Britain to other EU countries, the working people, and

retired British people are forced back here. Do you tell that story

when you talk about Romania and Bulgaria? It doesn't strike me you

do. That's the problem. Your straight talking... We have never

in history - have we had a mollsy - in history never have we had an

uncontrolled open border to poor countries, and we do that when we

have a problem with our labour market, not just unemployment but

wages for the unemployed broken down... Your situation would make

it worse. I suggest to you given where we are, it's a silly,

irresponsible thing to do. Nick Robinson is with us in a few yards

away - actually, in a different studio. I am delighted you're with

What does it tell us about the emotions today and the concerns of

these gentlemen about what this chap has done? It tells of the

frustrations of the three other parties. They feel that with Nigel

Farage, who makes them smile, they feel they are trying to grab a Teba

of soap which is awfully slippery. -- grab at a bar of soap. I tried

earlier with one of his deputies and oval tray again, on the issue

of immigration. If you keep stressing immigration, what is

UKIP's view of an acceptable number of people coming into the country?

50,000 a year would be acceptable, and roughly what we had from 1950

until 1977. But business is saying 100,000 is a better figure.

Immigration or work permits, which are two different things. One of

the problems is that they have become merged. When I looked on the

website a discover that this most important policy for your party is

under review and being rewritten. All policies for all parties

between elections are under review. Our stated policy was to aim, once

the message has been sorted out, for net migration of a maximum of

50,000 a year and work permits on a flexible basis where they are

needed with absolutely no rights to social security benefits. Do you

count students in that? No. If you take out the students and work

permits, migration is not far different to what you are talking

about. It probably is. We had one good year last year, but the 10

years prior to that have been a disaster and from next year it will

start rising rapidly. We are joined by someone else who will want to

have his say, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander,

who is in Inverness. Yes, far away from the studio and the elections.

It is good to have you with us. Your sense of what the Lib Dems

have done, because it has been pretty patchy for you. We have been

strong where it matters, in the context of 2015 and the general

election. In the Liberal Democrat constituencies where we have

members of parliament, Taunton, Cheltenham, Berwick-upon-Tweed,

Cumbria, we have done very well and we have picked up seats in other

counties, like Wiltshire, for example, where we have a member of

parliament. In a sense, the Liberal Democrats are a party of government

now, and we are part of the coalition government. Parties of

government get squeezed during mid- term elections. That has always

happened and it has happened again today. What is more significant is

that these elections suggest that Labour cannot win. They have not

made the progress they hoped, but the Conservatives can lose. If you

look from a Liberal Democrat perspective, both of those things

are optimistic for 2015. What is the message for you, not just as

Lib Dems, but as a coalition government, from the surge that

UKIP have achieved? For Liberal Democrats, as Ed Davey said, the

lesson is that we have to communicate even more strongly the

successes we have had as part of the coalition government. The

income tax policies, for example, the big income tax cuts we are

delivering for 25 million working people this year. The fact that

that message is getting across where we have Liberal-Democrat MPs

shows it is a palpable message for and we need to work harder to get

it across in other parts of the country, too. It is inevitable that,

as a coalition government has come together to take some of the most

difficult economic decisions any government has had to take for

decades, that some people, and I completely understand this and it

is completely wrong to belittle voters who have made this choice,

have chosen to cast a protest vote for UKIP. I understand that. We

have to continue to explain what we are doing, why we are doing it and

why it is in the best interests of the country as we go forward to the

general election in 2015. Straight over to Emily because we have had

another result. Durham has been held by Labour. No

big surprise because it is Labour heartland. They won it last time

around. It is near South Shields, where they kept their share. Let's

have a look at the changed overnight. Labour, up 24. They will

be pleased with those gains. The Independent losing. The Lib Dems

have taken a hit, more than double what they are partners in

government, the Conservatives, have taken. That is the result in Durham.

Let me take you, because we have one more to go, just waiting for

Northamptonshire, this is how debt counsellors tally is looking. The

Conservatives have lost 327, Labour have made gains of 284. The Lib

Dems, down 122. UKIP have made an astonishing gains of 144 seats. 136

games. A good day for the Green Party, adding five to their tally.

What does it do in terms of the Council make-up? The Conservatives

on 18, the vast majority in comfortable Tory shires. They have

lost 10. Two of those to Labour, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.

Eight have gone to no overall control. The astonishing ones we

have put towards the top - Norfolk, no overall control, Lincolnshire,

no overall control, both areas where the UKIP vote played into the

Conservative vote and deprived them of control of the council.

What will they be saying on the front pages and the inside pages

tomorrow, because the comment is, of course, important? We have Ian

Martin of the Telegraph and Kevin Maguire of the Daily Mirror on the

green. Your thoughts. It is an extraordinary political event,

really. You look at the numbers you ran through earlier. If it turns

out to be the case, what you are projecting, all of the main parties

below 30%, that is a potentially incredibly significant political

moment. It suggests that the long, slow fragmentation of the British

political system has gone up a gear in terms of speed. And that

something significant has happened. Kevin. The ground has shaken. Is it

an earthquake, or will it died down later? It is trying to work out the

impact on the other parties. I would have thought Nick Clegg is

terrified, David Cameron worried, and Ed Miliband will have concerns,

although he can be quietly pleased that, if UKIP continued its surge,

it will split the right-wing vote and he could enter Downing Street

by the back door in a couple of years. He does not really have to

increase the Labour vote, if UKIP serves as the SDP did to Labour in

the 1980s. It could split the vote and the person who will be damaged

his David Cameron. But it is a big moment. UKIP will now always be

there with its own name when we count the seats. We are running out

of time but good to talk to you both. Emily, are we in a position

to say that we have them all in, or not? I am wondering whether

Northamptonshire has come. Am I wrong? We do not have the count for

Northamptonshire. They are still finishing. What we do know is that,

essentially, it has been held by the Conservatives. Pretty safe to

say it has been held by the Conservatives. I have just heard in

the last second, I think we can show you now. A majority of 15, the

Conservatives on 36. You can see the pattern. Good gains for Labour,

a bad night for the Conservatives. UKIP on three, the Lib Dems taking

one hit, but essentially the Conservatives have held on there.

That is all of them in. We just have a couple of minutes, so I am

really just wanting to get a sense, in a sentence, and I mean that,

starting with you, Ed Davey, where you see things this evening, given

that we have the final figures. From our perspective, we have seen

some good councillors lose their seats, and that is always something

to feel sorry for because some of them work hard in their communities.

We have made gains in other areas. It is not as bad as it was this

time last year, and in the seats that matter for the next general

election we are polling above what we have done previously. This is

not a bad platform for 2015 for the Liberal Democrats. We approach to

these elections with humility, and I am pleased we are seeing progress.

We got our two bid targets, and we got 270, 284 games, which were very

pleased with. Does it mean everything is sorted, no, but we

have made progress in the key marginal areas in the south where

we need to win back support to get a majority. The key thing is we

have to demonstrate we have the answers on growth and jobs. That is

what we have been fundamentally focused on, which is why I think we

have made progress. Feeling bruised, as Conservatives? Every party in

power goes through difficult times when it comes to local elections.

We have to not be blown off track in doing what we think is right for

the country. Nigel and I clearly agree that we need to do all we

think is right, and we will carry on doing that will stop I think

Kevin Maguire's comments were revealing. The reality is that

Labour are unfit to take over governing the country again. It is

only 2.5 years since they were last in power and we know what happened

then. I would hate to think that the people lining up behind UKIP

today will do something in two years and end up with Ed Miliband

in power and no European referendum. Nigel Farage, the final word.

have taken British politics, throw it up into the air, taken votes

from across the board. The result of this, none of us can foresee. I

would say that if the Government and the opposition do not respond

to our major concerns of open-door immigration from Europe, in 2015,

who knows what might happen? One thing is certain, nothing will ever

be quite the same again. Emily, a few seconds to show us the scores

at the end of the day. The Conservatives on 335 losses,

Labour on 291. The Lib Dems losing 123, UKIP with a surge of 139 News

seats. The Green Party up five. And now we have all of them in, the

Conservatives have held 18 and lost 10. Labour have gained two. The Lib

Dems have not picked up those that they lost to the Conservatives last

time round. The story of the night is that eight have gone into no

overall control. Thank you to Emily Maitlis and to

Jeremy Vine, who was with us for so much of the day with his analysis.

It has been a long night and day long day. From all of the team, of

course we hope you have enjoyed our coverage of the elections. My

thanks to everyone here. And especially to Emily, who has been

stalked throughout the day, constantly updating the results. --

store water. BBC News at 6pm will be getting under way in a few

seconds on BBC One and on the BBC News Channel. Of course, do not