Europe Vote 2014 Northern Ireland

in Belfast. Up to now we have had the details of who is going to

represent us in the 11 new super councils. Today we get the big

picture of who will be representing us in Europe. You can see all the

counting going on in the background there.

We are here for the afternoon to see if the three outgoing MEPs will be

returning to Brussels. We will hear from them and from the other

candidates and of course we will be pouring over the facts and figures

with our expert analysts. Down here on the floor alongside

where the ballot papers are being sorted we will drill down into those

figures and we will hear from party members on where it went right and

where it went wrong. Now joining me on our special

election set is our political editor Mark Davenport. We also have Connor

Murphy and Arlene Foster from Sinn Fein and the DUP respectively. You

are all welcome to the programme. Politicians will be coming and

going, we will hear your thoughts in a second. I want to have a word with

you, Mark, to see where we are at the moment for the benefit of people

at home who perhaps thought they were going to hear who the three

MEPs were, we should have a health warning that's probably sometime

off. It's sometime distant, I think. They're churning at quite a rate

off. It's sometime distant, I think. They're churning at quite a through

the different boxes, all the boxes have been opened, they're counting

them council area by come area -- by council area. We haven't got a

precise time from the staff as to when it will be. What we are

resorting to is depending on the parties who are going in and making

unofficial tallies, what happens is that the votes get put in little

cages and put into a cabinet on the side of one of these walls behind me

and you can count the number of votes and get a broad estimatation.

We have to put a health warning on it, because that's obviously not the

proper count, it gives you a sense of the running order. As would be

predicted, we have Sinn Fein and the DUP at the top, some tallies putting

them around the 25% mark, although more recent figures show there is a

gap between Sinn Fein and the DUP with Martina Anderson in the lead.

Then we think that Jim Nicholson is fairly safely comfortably in third

position, again one tally there putting him at about 14% clearly

ahead of the SDLP at 12%. That figure may move but it doesn't look

like Alex Attwood can pull off this statistical long shot and knock him

out of the pack. The other person whose vote we will be watching

closely is that of Jim Allister, around 11% or so. One unofficial

tally that I have put him on about 27,000 votes. But again not enough

necessarily to lift him ahead of Jim Nicholson. I would put my money on

this stage on getting the same three again. It looks like Alliance might

have done OK. I have one suggestion here of about 8%. It's early days

and I suppose the margin of error is an issue when you get down to that

level. If that was the case that would be a good result for the

Alliance Party. They would be reasonably satisfied in the sense

it's an increase on what they got their previous candidate got - a

couple of percentage points below that. If they raise, they'll be

happy. Obviously they would have thought that with the more

high-profile candidate in Anna Lo they should have attracted more

votes. Most put them and ornd 21,000 votes -- around 21,000 votes but

it's still going on. UKIP, NI21, Greens and Conservatives, small

numbers, we think? Most of the tally figures I have seen, the Greens and

Conservatives down Greens maybe 1%, Conservatives not even showing. NI21

maybe around 2%, 3,000 votes. Tina McKenzie has just arrived. At one

stage we thought she was so disillusioned with what's going on

she wouldn't arrive at all. She has come in. Again they probably haven't

made the kind of mark they would have wanted to. UKIP maybe on about

3% of the vote. Henry Reilly about 8,000 votes. If the SDLP did firm up

that figure of 12% that would be disappointing for the party,

wouldn't it? Last time it was 16. 16.2%. That would be a significant

drop. Yeah. One thing they may point out is that it looks like the

nationalist vote is down as an overall proportion of the vote.

There's been some talk the nationalist vote amounting to about

38% of the votes cast. Obviously that may have played some sort of

part. But all they were talking about during the campaign, the

possibility of some splitting of the unionist vote and Alex Attwood

squeezing through, none of that has come to pass. If there is a

fragmentation of the unionist vote they haven't done well enough to

benefit. Arlene and Connor, we will hear your thoughts now. We have to

say this is nothing more than informed speculation. I am sure you

have been talking to your tallymen and women yourselves and party

activists and trying to work out how many votes there are in the various

cages as Mark has suggested. Arlene, anything you disagree with so far?

Does that tie in with what you are hearing? Well, it's too early to

talk about percentages, as yet. We are pleased with what we are seeing.

We are pleased with the way in which the tally is going. It's too early

to talk about percentages as yet. We do hope that we will be up from our

percentage the last time around. If it was 25%, if it was 25% that would

be a significant increase because you were on over 18% the last time.

You don't want to talk that one up too much. As I say, we can't say

that as yet. Diane ran a very good campaign. She has been a

hard-working MEP. I think that will be reflected in her vote. Connor

Murphy, your thoughts at this early stage with all the health warnings

that we have already made clear? At the risk of agreeing totally with

Arlene for the first time... Probably! We are in early stages.

It's very difficult at this stage to say definitively, if we go for one

figure and it turns out not to be the case, you thought you were

getting that, well, you must be disappointed. I wouldn't hold it to

you! In the same position we have been doing excellently across the

island, we are in line to get four MEPs, it's a huge achievement on the

back of a successful local Government election. We are in a

good place. You go into this election with the purpose of getting

your candidate elected and I think we are on course to do that. What

the final percentage point is, that's still a little bit of a grey

area. I think we, I suppose like Arlene, are pleased with the way the

count is going here. We are pleased with the way it's going across

Ireland today. I suppose you probably wouldn't be terribly

surprised to hear the SDLP might not be doing as well as the SDLP thought

that it was going to do, because some. Your party colleagues have

made it clear if Sinn Fein believed there were two nationalist seats in

Northern Ireland you would have put forward two candidates. You will not

be hugely surprised if Alex Attwood is disappointed by the end of today?

That's a matter for the SDLP. Every party enters according to how they

think they're going to do. If we thought there were enough votes to

elect two people from Sinn Fein we would have put two people from Sinn

Fein into the race. The DUP discussed having the same position,

as well. Other parties put forward candidates and give it their best

shot, that's what we all do. We are interested in trying to get our

candidates elected. It's up to the SDLP to mount a campaign to get

their candidate elected. If they're disappointed at the end that's a

matter that I am sure that party will consider rment we hope to be

pleased at the end of this campaign and certainly indications across

Ireland today are that we should be pleased. Absolutely determined on

Sinn Fein's part not to do anything to help fellow nationalists,

certainly not in Northern Ireland, your party leader was clear when he

spoke to me I think on Saturday, when he said we don't have any

confidence in the SDLP. We want people to vote for Sinn Fein and

that's pretty much it. And that's what every party - the position they

adopt. It isn't the position every party adopts. Can I say we have had

a situation in the past where we have sought to have an electoral

arrangement with the SDLP and they've declared themselves not

interested. That's different. An electoral arrangement is different

from asking or suggesting people might transfer down the ballot

paper. It's not the same thing. I have never heard the SDLP suggesting

anyone transfer to Sinn Fein. If they wanted us to get to that type

of arrangement where we suggested that our second preferences go to

each other's candidates I am sure we would be open to discuss that. They

never did. We get accused of not helping the SDLP. The SDLP have been

attacking ourselves and attacking the executive generally, although

they're members of the executive, for the last number of years as if

they're not part of it. When it comes to an election they want a

handout from Sinn Fein. We saw Mike Nesbitt engaging in a little bit of

selfie-taking! I think it's photo-bombing. He told me nothing

was going to wipe the smile off his face after the elections. Arlene, a

lot of politicians and journalists and analysts, photographers, party

workers milling around. What are they doing? All trying to pick up

the gossip. All trying to pick up the gossip and see if they can work

out how many are in those piles. To reflect back on your point about the

nationalist vote going down in terms of its percentage share, I think the

important thing from this election from our point of view, from a

unionist point of view is the percentage of unionists coming out

to vote has risen. That's a very good news story from the from this

election and one we will be looking at closely as to why that's the

case. Could be because of the smaller unionist parties you were

accusing of fragmenting the vote. We will be looking at the registration

and the fact more people registered this time around. That's a good news

story. If there is more unionists voting, regardless of what you

think, Mark, I am pleased about and our party will be pleased. We saw a

shot there of the DUP encampment. It look it's like -- looked like

Jonathan Bell and Gregory Campbell were doing the number crunching. Are

they good at sums Gregory is very good at sums. He is very much our

statistics man. If you want to know anything, ask Gregory. Right. There

are lots of people with spread sheets and calculators, Mark. Yeah.

I mean, the problem is jumping to conclusions. We put in that caveat,

I busily got hold of a load of figures and worked out percentages

to realise one candidate was missing and this was entirely eronerous. We

might be looking at certain constituencies and there might be

geographical reasons why one party is down. Jim Nicholson just - that

was a live shot of him walking around the base of our studio set

there. I can just see him. Mark, we can all see him. I think he is going

to talk to Wendy on the extended Talkback coverage. Jim Nicholson I

think will be a happy man on the basis of the figures we have so far.

Looks like he will get back in. That really was to be expected, given

what we saw as the strengthening of the Ulster Unionist vote in the

local elections. Cheesy grin as far as he is concerned and for Mike

Nesbitt, this was Mike Nesbitt's first election and it could have

gone worse for him. He is happy so far. Let's see when we get the final

scores, as far as Jim Allister is concerned if his grin was as wide as

yesterday. Thank you for your thoughts for now. Let's go down to

the count floor and talk to Tara. She's been joined by Nicolas White

who's been taking a detailed look at some figures.

Yes, after a rest after his marathon on Friday and Saturday, I am pleased

to say he is back with us now. What are you hearing? I am hearing that

the two top candidates, Martina Anderson and Diane Dodds are quite

close to the quota, possibly Martina Anderson a little above it. So Sinn

Fein very likely to get elected on the first count. DUP likely to be

nearly on the first count and perhaps a little bit of space to

make up. After that, I hear that the Ulster Unionist vote has more or

less held up at roughly the same level as last time and roughly as it

was on Friday. The SDLP on the other hand, sounds like it's not been a

good election for them. The result in the local Government elections

last week, 13. 6%, was their second worst result ever. The worst was 13.

3% in 1973 local elections. We are looking like that record may be

broken today. Jim Allister, something more than 10%, maybe 11%,

not likely to get elected but his transfers will be sufficient to

elected Jim Nicholson on the last count. Below that Anna Lo of the

Alliance Party, 7, 8%. It will be the best election results the

Alliance Party has had for European elections. They'll be able to hold

their heads high? Yes. They will not get elected which is what is nice,

getting the seats at the end of the day but an encouraging result. What

about this SDLP situation, bad news for them? Bad news for them. I think

we will see that vote slipping quite significantly compared to the last

European election. There's been a lot of discussion of democratic

determinism, differential turnout. I think basically we are now seeing

that nationalists are not voting in the same proportion that Unionists

are not voting. Everybody is succumbing to the same degree of

apathy no matter what their community background. Some of the

predictions before the election, Alex Attwood could be within 1000

votes of being elected wide off the mark? I don't think this is a good

year for the SDLP. What about Jim Allister? There were suggestions

earlier, these things are always open to speculation and people say

what they want us to say on the airwaves, but there were some

suggestions that the DUP were worried. Let's be clear, Jim

Allister eats into their traditional vote very badly. It looks now like

that situation has been somewhat redressed, but only somewhat. It was

clear that the TUV votes last week in the local elections was coming at

least as much from the DUP as new voters. If anything, slightly more.

This plateauing of the Sinn Fein vote is interesting when you look

south of the border, when that is clearly not been the case. There's a

theory that they weren't really trying appear, that the energies

were being directed into the southern campaign where they work

really wanting to make gains. This is a party that's very good about

using its resources efficiently. What sort of timescale are you

expecting the first preference votes to be finished? You told me it might

happen by 2pm but it hasn't happened yet. Sometime in the next hour, ask

me again in an hour! There's a few members of the DUP

apparently arriving, Edwin Poots among them there, the Health

Minister. You can see the television cameras and journalists, taking

photographs of anything that moves at the moment. There are all kinds

of interesting conversations and the parties have come together in their

groups, but then you do spot different members of different

parties may be having a cup of coffee together and a chat. That

happens around Stormont from time to time, but occasionally the parties

sit in their different groups for their breaks. They are all looking

to see exactly what the figure is. To one extent this is a time when

all the parties united, which is basically to try and get the raw

statistics and try to find what they will do with them. A lot of those

conversations are, what are you hearing, does that match what I've

gleaned and what my colleagues have gleaned? This is Northern Ireland

united as never before. We were just talking about the fact that at the

last election you could see through the European ballot papers, so you

got an idea when the verification was going on. At this time around

the paper must be a lot thicker, so you couldn't see through. When the

verification happened on Friday morning, we had no idea as to how

the candidates were going to do in Europe. We always like to know as

quickly as we can and that wasn't possible. Another thing we

journalists are missing, we used to have a balcony and we used to be

able to look town on the piles of votes and work-out from that.

Instead, we are dependent on people having to go in and look for us. We

can't get a vantage point on that. The other issue which is quite

intriguing is the turnout is up. It is 51.8%, it was 43% in the last

elections, which were in 2009. The reason for that is, presumably,

because these were tied into the local elections. I'd like to think

it's been our exciting election coverage during the course of the

campaign that has turned people on to politics as never before, but the

truth of the matter is the reason it was so much lower beforehand is you

have the European elections on their own. What tends to happen is if you

put them together with an assembly election or a council election,

election will, because people mark both papers at the same time. It is

not necessarily to be unexpected. I think it was about 55% when they

were together with the Assembly elections previously. Now at about

52% when they are together with the council elections. In terms of the

raw numbers, that is likely to be good news for your candidate. It

will not affect percentages, that issue in itself won't, but the raw

data, the actual number of votes should be up, shouldn't they? It

seems so. I think that's good. One of the reasons they coincided with

the council poll as well, but there is a greater sense now that people

have of the involvement of Europe in domestic politics, the decisions

that are taken, particularly relating to austerity and the

influence of Europe in that. I think there's a greater sense that people

have a connect now between the MEPs and what they do in Europe and

European politics generally of the institutions. There perhaps is more

of an interest now. Europe was traditionally a very low turnout

because people basically thought they elected MEPs to go off and

disappear for four years. Now I think there's a greater

understanding about what they do and a greater connect between the MEPs

back to hear and the electorate. Let's go back to Tara, who has been

joined live by the NI21 candidate, Tina McKenzie.

We were misinformed then that you weren't going to come, is that

right? I was in two minds. I didn't know whether I wanted to come and

faced the media scrum, but it's my campaign and I see other people are

here and I wanted to come and support all the people that

supported me. I'm really glad I came. What are the early indications

you are hearing about your vote? I hear that we are above the Northern

Ireland Conservative Party and the Green Party. I'm not sure where we

are going to end up, but it's looking OK so far. Bearing in mind

the contacts and the week we've had. Are you in or out of politics now? I

never really thought I was in politics in a career way. I have a

full-time job. You are standing for Europe. This is a movement for us,

this is about people gathering together. It's not like a normal

political party. We gathered together because we want change in

Northern Ireland. We still believe there is more in Northern Ireland. I

know that looking at the votes that we are probably in the status quo

that we ever were, but I believe we have rocked things up a bit. We have

certainly made people question how people are labelled, that we are all

in some sort of way in one box or the other. I think we've done some

very good things. But the designation row really crucified you

at the end. A lot of things damaged us last week. I don't just think

that was about designation. On polling day it was. You may think

that but I think there were other things that affected the polling as

well. I think that the designation question, it's been a challenge for

us internally since the inception of the party. I will not shy away from

the fact that I've always been very convinced there should be cross

community. And therefore to be cross community we need to designate

others. We do believe that Northern Ireland, for a lot of reasons,

actually sits better within the UK at this point, there's no doubt

about it, economically and on a whole host of other areas. We think

you can still believe that but you can shake off the shackles of

unionism and nationalism. But you are going to leave it for now, you

are not going to take an active role? I won't be taking any

leadership role. I'm going to step back. I've given a year to the

party, I'm going to step back, take stock, spent some time with my

lovely babies and husband and see where I go from there. But I'm still

bogus dash back I'm still focused on my business career. Some people

might say you have bailed out, you've left early, you should stay

on and take an active role. You were the face a big European campaign,

why would you not stay on? Well, it's been a very difficult time. I

have had an experience in politics that I wouldn't want anyone else to

have, to be frank. If we were only fighting the orange and green of the

last century we might have stood a chance. But there are so many other

things in this political world that I wasn't really equipped for all

expecting. So I think it's a lot for public representatives to stand up.

I've certainly got a respect for a lot of the politicians because I see

the world that they are in. It is not a lovely world, it is not all

the razzle-dazzle that some people might think. Is NI21 as a project

finished? I would hope not. You saw me surrounded by the candidates

earlier. They've got that passion, as have I, but we have to wait and

see what the next weeks bring out. I will support those candidates and do

what I can to help but I've certainly lead and done a lot of

work up until now. Thank you very much.

Tina McKenzie, the NI21 candidate, who said, we've certainly rocked

things up a bit. Depending on how you look at it, a bit of an

understatement! Certainly provided a lot of copy for us journalists, not

all of the most savoury. In terms of rocking up the political scene, they

don't seem to have done that. We were looking at about 3000 votes for

them, no doubt they will go up before we've got all the votes

counted, but if it ends up being about 2%, that's not what they would

have wanted. They will no doubt try and get their act together but we

just heard Tina McKenzie say she still believes that controversial

decision on dropping the Unionist label was the right want to make. As

a postmortem that this very small party still has to have, quite apart

from all the other issues, there is still a divide their between those

who think they got it wrong and those who got it right on that. I've

just seen John McAllister walking past, he was going in a different

direction from the way Tina McKenzie was going. I've also heard that

Basil McCrea is due to be here. It will be interesting to see if

there's a conversation between Basil McCrea and John McAllister. I gather

that they spoke to each other for the first time in several days on

Saturday night. I gather that was cordial conversation, but Basil has

not taken up John's invitation for him to stand aside. I was talking to

some of the local government candidates earlier, and they were

saying they really don't know where they stand at all. It will be very

interesting if there is a conversation between the two men in

this area, with the camera crews and so on. It's not a very private place

to sit down and resolve your differences. I suspect it Basil

McCrea arrives, we will see the camera crews and so on. It's not a

very private place to sit down and resolve your differences. I suspect

it Basil McCrea arrives, we will see the cameras gathering round quickly.

Arlene, there is one way of interpreting some of the figures,

certainly the draft because we are getting, and also the figures we saw

at the weekend for the locals. Unionists shifted to the right did

better than unionists who stayed in the centre or were rather more

towards the left, is that a fair interpretation of things? I don't

think we can make any assessment until we see what the figure is for

the European election. Diane fought a very good campaign, very much

putting forward the whole agenda of standing up for Northern Ireland,

moving Northern Ireland forward within the UK and Europe. A very

interesting view, when you look across Europe and say the way in

which the parties have shifted to the right. In the main, I accept

that in Greece it is the anti-austerity party that is moving

ahead there. But if you look at firms, that has been a very dramatic

shift to the right. I think a lot of countries now are looking to their

national identity and seeing Europe as a threat to their national

independence. That is going to be the dialogue that takes place in

Europe after these elections. Back-in Northern Ireland

specifically, Mike Nesbitt, for example, he was leading his party

into an election for the first time. He's got about ten councillors more

than he had been expecting to have. Many people are saying that because

he took the party to the right, towards the DUP, rather than stating

precisely where he was in the middle. I use the word liberal with

him the other day and he said, I don't really like the word liberal.

It's not a dramatic turn out for them. They had a good election, if

you take 0.9%... He thinks it's dramatic but he has ten extra

counsellors, that's very good for them. What we need to focus on is

how we can now work together to make Northern Ireland a better place for

everybody and to move forward in a way that is conducive to everyone

living here. Whether we go right, left or centre, what is important is

we can articulate for the people of Northern Ireland in Europe and

Westminster, and that is something we pride ourselves on in the

Democratic Unionist Party. It is important you are linked back to

Westminster and to Stormont, so that we can make those connections. If

you take the Presbyterian Mutual Society, which was a very big issue

in Northern Ireland, I was able to work with Diane to make that

solution come about, and that was through working through Europe. I'd

be interested to find out what the vote within unionism, which I do

think has rewarded those who are either moving towards the right or

however you want to determine it, a more hardline agenda, what impact

that has on any efforts to resuscitate those issues in the

House talks. I think that has been postponed, maybe whilst some of the

parties cogitate on these figures. I don't think it is particularly

helpful from the point of view from any kind of compromise from the

parties on those tough issues. I'm sure the DUP will think, yeah, we

made the right decision there and we might have suffered more of a

decrease if we hadn't made that decision. , maybe, to look at your

situation as far as the local elections are concerned, was there a

bit of uncharacteristic mismanagement of the Sinn Fein vote?

You lost a couple of seats in your area that maybe you'd hope to get.

West Belfast, a seat went to people before profit Alliance. Donnelly, a

critic of the Sinn Fein strategy, picked up a seat there, an

independent Republican. You may be pleased with how it went but it

could have done better. We were in new boundaries in a lot of cases

with new candidates, four out of our five candidates in South Armagh were

standing for the first time. We were trying to divide what was previously

two DEA into one and trying to shape the results across five candidates

which is a big challenge. Similarly in the Armagh district, as well.

People Before Profit candidate stood in a by-election and got 1700 votes.

I don't think there was any real surprise there. But of course every

party will be generally pleased. At a local level in certain areas,

certainly in my own area, we will have felt that we had a good

election. But there were improvements that could be made. I

think we will do what we always do, go back and learn lessons from that

and come back better the next time. Connor, I was wondering, we were

talking about whether there could be an impact in the election result on

a Haas deal with the unionists, equally on your side when you see

some independents doing well is that something you have to bear in mind

when you think about issues like welfare reform? Potentially one

could have said there is an opportunity immediately you have the

election over to try and work out a deal on welfare reform but you have

to bear them in mind? We have to bear in mind is the impact that

issues like welfare reform have on people. It's not a political

consideration. It's a consideration of the conconstitute yepts that are

suffering -- constituents that are suffering as a result of the

austerity measures. That's our primary concern. But there are

certain issues that we obviously want to see satisfied. It isn't just

about worrying about a single councillor in a single constituency.

It's actually about worrying about the impact that those decisions will

have on a vast number of people across all constituencies. In terms

of the narrative around Haas, as well, Haas has gone. We are now in a

different scenario. We should name it as such, because we are not on

that agenda any more. You come up with a better name. I will give you

one. We will look at the picture elsewhere. Thank you very much for

now. We are dominated by the picture here in Northern Ireland this

afternoon, but we will be hearing how that fits in with the rest of

the UK and the Repebble throughout our time on air. -- Republic

throughout our time on air. Some of the big parties reeling at

Westminster, the Liberal Democrats have a solicitor tree representative

-- solidarity representative. I am joined by our correspondent. You

have been looking at the picture developing there for us. I suppose

the big story has to be that at the top of the leader board it's UKIP.

Of course. An amazing result for Nigel Farage and UKIP. Everybody

thought that UKIP would do well. I don't think people thought they

would do as well as they've done. They've topped the poll, and this

afternoon they took an MEP out of Scotland. A great night for Nigel

Farage. He is the politician with the biggest smile today. Obviously

Labour are in second place. The Tories pushed into third place,

that's a position they're not used to. The Lib Dems all the way down in

6th place with just one MEP. At one stage last night we thought the Lib

Dems wouldn't get anybody but they've got one MEP. A great night

for UKIP and a terrible night for Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems. He has

some serious questions to answer now, doesn't he? Can he survive?

Well, I think he can survive for the time being. He has quite a lot of

allies, Menzies Campbell and Paddy Ashdown have been offering support.

One Liverpool MP likened the situation to Generals at the Somme.

Nick Clegg says he is not going to stand down. He is going to tough it

out, although there are lots of postmortems taking place at the

moment behind closed doors, at Lib HQ, Tory HQ and Liberal HQ,

naturally. Two things are going to happen, people will read the results

to the Westminster election in less than 12 months' time and I suppose

the other issue is it puts the issue of the referendum again - not that

it's been away from the top of the agenda, but it's back there in

capital letters, isn't it? Let's deal with both those points. The

referendum, you are right, we are going to hear this time and time

again, we heard it a lot today. David Cameron has talked about this

referendum in 2017 although he is coming under pressure to bring that

forward. There is pressure also on Ed Miliband, people are saying why

can't Labour come out and support a referendum? That's going to be a

buzzword in British politics. Looking to the general election,

which is just a year away, you have to be very careful. These results

come with a health warning. People vote at European elections in

different ways at general elections. All right, thank you very much for

that summary of the situation across the UK. Let's look at some pictures

now. Basil McCrea is arriving at the count centre here at the King's Hall

in Balmoral. That I believe is him checking his accreditation to make

sure - yes, I think it is. When you arrive you are given a wristband and

there is the band. A lot of photographers taking photographs, a

lot of flash photography there. Basil McCrea, like the rest of us,

is wearing his wristband. He gets a pink one.

Martin McGuinness, the Deputy First Minister, arrived with Martina

Anderson, the Sinn Fein candidate a few moments ago. These are pictures

we recorded a short time ago. They had to go through the same process

of accreditation. They've got the wristbands on, as well. Politicians

- Arlene Foster is waving her pink band. Connor Murphy? I slipped in

under the tent. I hope it's still there, yes. Mark and I have fetching

purple. UKIP colours. Somebody pointed out they match my socks.

That was not by choice, that was purely by accident. You can read

nothing into the colour of my socks, I can assure you. The media were

court in between, Martin McGuinness and Martina Anderson arrived and

Basil McCrea in quick succession and the cameramen didn't know where to

turn. You can see over the shoulder what's going on. Trying to see

what's happening. He has gone now. We should explain politicians with

their fancy pink wristbands go further behind the crash barriers

then we do. They get into a sort of VIP area. I wouldn't call it VIP!

It's very plush in there, Arlene. Not! He is there with Johnny

McCarthy, the newly elected councillor, they're making their way

to the count area. Several other candidates there, the chap with the

beard and the glasses is Ian Dixon who stood in East Belfast. He was on

The View on Thursday night. Trendy spectacles, you are right. You have

to say that Bass Bass -- ska -- Basil McCrea, whatever happens in

regards to allegations, he has turned up here, others may have

shied away. He is never somebody to shy away into a corner. He is

deciding to continue with his sort of role in public life, which I

suppose people may have been asking questions about during the week. We

will see if he is going to do any interviews with the media. Maybe he

will join us on our election set. Maybe he will talk to Tara. We, no

doubt, will be endeavouring to have a word in his ear. Just a quick word

about the broader UK picture. You didn't hear what Stephen Walker was

saying there, I think, you will know the situation is that UKIP are at

the top of that league table across the water. There are serious issues

for the Conservatives and for Labour, not topping the table for

the first time in an election in the UK for a very long time, but real

problems for Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems, aren't there? Absolutely. I

think Nick Clegg's going to be under a lot of pressure, just as Eamon

Gilmore is under pressure in Dublin. It seems to be a career problem with

being the junior partner in a coalition. Yes, that's going to

cause problems. In terms of how it might affect the situation here,

it's less obviously easy to say but if things are more in the pelting

pot come the Westminster election of next year it could well be that

brings Arlene and her colleagues in the DUP into the mix because if we

are getting into a period where there is a number of parties trying

to work together to make administrations or arrangements it

could feature the DUP which often the London pundits don't consider.

Could this be a factor in the Scottish referendum? The SNP was

fighting UKIP. UKIP did get an MEP in Scotland but the SNP maybe in

their independence referendum may deploy the argument, if you want to

stay in Europe, go for an independent Scotland because what's

going to happen south of the border with all these UKIP people? Nigel

Farage, of course, I don't know how you feel about this, Arlene, he is

saying that his big pitch for the Westminster election is that he

would hold the balance of power in any Westminster situation in 12

months' time. They topped the table, 23 MEPs. That's a very significant

increase on last time around. 23 out of 73 I think. He is a formidable

force at the moment, could that translate to Westminster, do you

think? Well, just looking at the national papers this morning,

they're saying they don't think it's going to translate into very many

MPs but it will be interesting to see the by-election that's coming up

now where UKIP are standing, a very credible candidate, to see if he can

take that seat and to see what happens after that. I do think in

terms of Alex Salmond's point about vote for us, because we are

pro-European, they're going to have to get into that discussion about

negotiating to get back into Europe if it were the case that the rest of

Great Britain left. OK. We need to leave it there, thank you very much.

Tara has been joined, I gather, by Basil McCrea.

Yes, Basil McCrea is giving some support here to his winning

candidate. Yes, indeed. There was some suggestion you wouldn't come

today. Why ever not? I mean, what I want to say at the start is that I

am really pleased, really proud of all the people that fought this

campaign, all of the candidates, all of the people that supported them,

all of the people that voted for them. That's been great. Where do

you stand now, John McCallister has called on you to step aside while an

-- while an investigation takes place? You know I would love to talk

about this, I am not shy about talking about things, but I have to

tell you this, I cannot say anything because I am instigating legal

action and my lawyers have said to me, you cannot speak. It's an

instruction. So those matters will be dealt with through the proper

channels at some stage in the future. That's all I really want to

say on the matter. Legal action against whom, you can tell us that.

I have made my position quite clear. I have come here to support the

candidates, to look at the vote, to give thanks to the people that

supported us, with regard to the other matters you have raised - I

would love to sit and talk to you all about - there are things that

need to be said. But because I have instigated legal action on the

advice, on the instruction of my lawyers, I cannot talk about that

issue. You are still the leader of NI21? I think we have just finished

now and I am going to have a cup of tea with my friends.

Basil perhaps not as forthcoming as he normally is, Mark. People at home

will have caught that. We were listening, as well. Just to be

clear, he says there is much he would like to be able to say but he

can't at the moment because on the advice of his solicitor he has been

asked not to say anything because he is instigating legal action at some

stage in future. When he was asked against whom or what organisation he

wouldn't specify. Yeah, that's left us guessing a little bit. We do know

that his deputy leader - these allegations about inappropriate

behaviour made by a former NI21 staff member to an outside agency

called Care Call, but that I wouldn't think you could term would

be legal action. They're an agency that deals with employment and

mediation issues. I am not clear about from what Basil McCrea was

saying is whether he is going to instigate some defamation action

which I suppose it will be open to him to do or whether there is some

other proceedings or some complaint that's been made against him. It

continues, that's our colleague there who I think is probably doing

an interview for radio at the moment. I suspect so. Our camera is

listening in but it's not easy to hear what he is say, it may be he is

repeating what he said to us a few moments ago. You can see huge

interest. I can see there a reporter, for example, from the

Irish Times on the right. All the newspapers there, all the other

media outlets. They're keen to hear what he has to say. It's puzzling as

to what's going on here in the election count centre, it's almost

like we are seeing a sort of vying for the mantle of NI21, whatever is

left of it, between the two different wings. You have Basil

McCrea wanting to be seen alongside their one victorious candidate. You

had John McCallister also wanting to be seen. You have two different

wings of the party. We are trying to see, not just which reporters are

huddled around the politicians, but which activists are. His caravan has

stopped about three yards on and he is doing another series of

interviews for other media outlets. I am glad we got in first. The one

elected representative who they have had on the NI21 ticket is not

distancing himself in any way. Arlene is pointing out there are at

least six or seven candidates there, maybe a couple more than that who

are part of that moving caravan with Basil. Some of the candidates,

whatever happens in relation to these allegations, they felt that

John McAllister had betrayed them by going public on the way he did on

the eve of poll, about the whole reason -- the whole redesignation.

Maybe you have these different wings with very strong views on this rift.

Let's go back to Tara, who has now been joined by the leader of the

Alliance Party, David Ford. What are you hearing about the vote

here today? They are still piling up papers. It's a mug's game to predict

it at this stage. Anna Lo's vote is holding up very well. I suspect we

will see a modest increase on last time, but it is a mug's game to

predict too much. We were told in east Belfast that the word long was

toxic, Michael Long topped a poll. We were told that that because of

various remarks that Anna had made that she was toxic and that didn't

work either. Do you think you could have done better? When you say you

are a party for everyone with people from all sorts of backgrounds,

someone expressing a view is hardly controversial because that is not

what defines alliance. It's a commitment to building a united

community shared future for all of us. It seems to me that Anna has

polled well across Northern Ireland, as our council candidates

polled generally well. What would you like to see her come out with

this time? I'm not going to predict anything at this stage. We were

starting from 5.5% last time. I think we will see a modest increase

on that. What happens next for the Alliance party, where are we

actually going? I thought the DUP started a hullabaloo about east

Belfast before we even started finishing council -- to the council

votes. My colleagues will continue to do what they do, Naomi at

Westminster, Stephen, the departments we have responsibility

for and councillors in the old and new councils. We are about

representing people, bringing things together and promoting the community

that the society needs. I'm not sure whether we will see serious

engagement by the leaders of the five parties in the immediate

future. I'm not sure that Mike Nesbitt is going to come back to the

talks that he walked away from. But we badly need to resolve those

issues of the past, parades and flags. Those hit issues have to be

resolved if we are to make society better for us. I'm committed to

going into those talks whenever it may happen. But it looks as though

we will not be having those talks tomorrow. We need to get other

parties around the table and engaging seriously. Do you think

that is likely given that another election is only 12 months away? If

we can't have the talks now than we won't have them for the next 12

months after that because there is only 12 months away? If we can't

have the talks now than we won't have them for the next 12 months

after that because issues on parades and flags. Those who are victims of

the past can't wait for a piecemeal solution to the occasional inquest

to some of the work. We need to get some of those structures which were

proposed by emus Bradley or the victims commissioners or by Richard

Haass into play, because we have a huge moral obligation as well as a

legal obligation to deal with those matters. For people to simply play

politics at this stage because they are worried about an election 12

months away would be reprehensible. What about that election? They are

worried about an election 12 months away would be reprehensible. What

about that election? Naomi pact in east Belfast? I can only go on what

Naomi heard Gavin Robinson say when he was pleading with other people to

stand aside for him. She won the election fair and square last time.

People voted for her on her record on public service in Council and as

LM -- MLA. Do try to extrapolate, as the DUP have pretended to do, the

four election areas aren't actually east Belfast. Secondly, we all know

that smaller parties pick up votes in an SDLP election when it probably

don't stand candidates in the full election. We note because of what we

saw in Leicestershire, when there is a Long on the ballot paper there is

an extremely strong Alliance vote. Where you encouraged by the comments

that if there was going to be an electoral pact it would be more

likely it would be an Ulster Unionist candidates that would

stand, which would suggest there won't be won? I also heard him say

they had their best election result for 25 years. I think Mike needs to

get a slight reality check, just the same as the DUP need to get a

reality check. All kinds of things happening up

here, but still no sign of any figures. We've got an interesting

shot for you to look at here. Martin McGuinness having a bit of a chat

with David McNary from UKIP. They are not coming to closely together

there. There is clear, blue air between them. It looks like David

McNary is giving Maarten a bit of a talking to there. It was congenial

at the end. There's a lot of that going on. Of course, all the public

fighting has been done, all the policy arguments, we are all now in

the same boat in that we are essentially waiting upon the result.

People are courteous to each other. That is the best way that politics

can be done. We probably disagree on quite a lot of issues and have very

opposing viewpoints, but that doesn't stop you being courteous to

people. The starting gun has been fired now for the election cycle.

These elections are done and dusted, and we are going to get the

figures for the Euro elections this afternoon. But it's back to business

at Stormont tomorrow, back to business in Westminster. You don't

take your seat but you are over there and take part in meetings and

so forth. We are less than 12 months away from the Westminster election.

Can serious business be done politically here in Northern Ireland

between the parties, or is it inevitable, not just for the next 12

months but for the next 24 months until we get the next Assembly

elections out of the way, that all parties will be looking over their

shoulders? If that is the case, it will be doing a great disservice to

the people elected. I know a party leader meeting is scheduled

tomorrow, to discuss the Richard Haass process... Is that going

ahead? It was scheduled but whether it happens tomorrow or not... There

was a lot of speculation it wasn't happening. If it's not, we should be

getting down to those types of discussion quickly. The issues are

in the past, parading and cultural issues, should have been dealt with

at Christmas. There's nothing stopping us dealing with them in the

run-up to the election. We should be getting back down to them. Whatever

political parties and the cycle of elections we are in, the people that

we represent are facing these issues daily. We have a responsibility to

try and get them resolved. Should be getting back down to it this week,

says our Sinn Fein panellist. You are keen to make the post we are in

a post-Richard Haass scenario. Is there any sense of urgency on the

part of the Unionist family to get this matter resolved once and for

all before we have 11 new super councils fighting over flags? It's

very important we do move on. We were in paralysis coming up to these

elections because we didn't deal with big issues like welfare reform.

We have to deal with those issues. Is it easier to do that now? We must

grasp that opportunity now. The electorate will not forgive us if we

don't. I'm not sure how big the window is, but we need to get

dealing with these issues before the end of the year. You are right, once

the turn of the year comes, we are then into Westminster election

campaigns. We need to deal with this, particularly on welfare reform

because it has such massive impact all about budgets within the

executive. I'm getting word in my ear, the turnout is almost 10% up on

2009, extra votes this time around. The figure that we had was 51 point

84%. It was 43 the last time. That does explain, at least in part, why

the counting is so slow. It is coming up to 3:10 p.m.. I'm being

told 4pm before we see any white smoke. They've got more pieces of

paper to work their way through. As I said earlier, it's not because

there have been some huge new interest in Europe, I don't quite

see it as anyway parallel with what happened with UKIP in England and

them being able to put the whole European issue on the table. I think

it's probably more to do with the fact we've got a combined election

this time. If you weren't ready to come out on the European issue, you

might come out to help the council down the road. Very fortuitously,

Tara has just been joined by someone who maybe can give us a bit of an

idea of what to expect. She's talking to Graeme Sheils, the chief

electoral officer. With some news on turnout. We have

somewhere in the region of 630,000 votes here today to process will

stop that is well up on the figures from 2009. It was 480,000 or

thereabouts. Around 10%? Maybe a bit over. It is turnout today. Compared

to just over 42% in 2009. Just explained that those who don't know

why that would then take a bit longer. There's a substantial

additional volume of paper and boats to count and process, so that has

obviously contributed to the extended time it has taken to

complete the first stage of the count. The fact we are quite busy at

this end of the hall is significant. It still means there some way to go,

is that right? There is the accent will move further down the room as

things progress. We are coming to the end of the stage behind us here.

Then there will be calculation is done, hopefully somewhere between

4pm and 4:30pm we should be in a position to give some more

information. Is that a confident prediction considering that when we

arrived today it was 2:30pm we would get the first preference votes? Will

that slip a bit more? Hopefully not. I never said between 2pm and 2:30

p.m.. It takes as long as it takes to get the thing done accurately.

Everyone can see the staff have worked hard and consistently put the

effort required for doing the thing properly. It's important we get this

right. Any idea how many candidates will be excluded in the first stage,

once the first preference votes are counted? Daily it's not possible to

say yet. When will you know that? Hopefully by 4pm or so, I should be

in a position to have more information. If someone reaches the

quota there will be a declaration of a candidate at 4pm to 4:30pm. That's

not guaranteed either, is it? Nothing is guaranteed until

everything is finalised. That is why I'm reticent about giving a

cast-iron guarantee. But our best estimate at this stage is somewhat

between 4pm and 4:30 p.m.. Very interesting to hear what he had

to say there. We are in no great rush, it seems, folks. We will have

to top up on coffee and a cup of tea in the moment so. The story in the

Republic is very much of the success and rise of Sinn Fein, both at local

councils and in Europe. Last night, the party's candidate in Dublin,

Lynn Doyle, became the first MEP to be elected. I'm joined by our Dublin

correspondent. An interesting situation unfolding. There is. There

is growing speculation, unconfirmed, that Eamon Gilmore, the

deputy Prime Minister and Minister of foreign affairs and leader of the

Labour Party, may be about to resign within the next hour. Labour had a

particularly bad local and European election campaign. Its vote in the

2011 general election was around 19%. It slumped to 7% in the local

elections and lost all three of its MEPs. There is speculation that Mr

Gilmour may be about to resign full stop in terms of facts, although

there is a recount in Dublin and it began at around 2:20pm, Lynn Boylan,

the Sinn Fein candidate, is almost certainly going to be re-elected,

her seat isn't in any danger. There are three seats in Dublin. She

topped the poll late last night and was quickly elected as an MEP in the

early hours of this morning. The recount is happening because the

Green leader and candidate narrowly missed out on a seat. He finished

about 1100 votes behind an independent. She was only 500 votes

ahead of him. The recount was ordered, but the Sinn Fein 's seat

is safe. The only other result we have is in the South constituency,

Munster and South Leinster, where there has been an MEP elected, that

is Brian Crowley. A phenomenal vote-getter who is in a wheelchair.

He topped the poll and his boat has now been redistributed. In that

constituency, Sinn Fein are almost certain to get elected and the

party's Matkowski, in the Midlands, North and West constituency, is

almost certainly going to get elected there. Perhaps the big story

in that constituency will be the first count votes and probable

election of the leftist campaigner, Luke Flanagan. He was probably

better known as the legalise cannabis campaigner and a turf

cutter champion. Like many people elected in the European Parliament

over the last weekend, he is very critical of Brussels, believing that

it sides too much with big business against ordinary people,

particularly with what happened in Ireland with regard to the banking

crisis in mind. That's a potential earthquake as far as politics in the

South are concerned it Eamon Gilmore goes, he's the leader of the Labour

Party, he is the Minister for foreign affairs and he is the

tallest. That would be a very significant development. It would be

a huge development. Questions have been raised throughout the day about

his continuing leadership by various TDs. The rules of the Labour Party

would make it very difficult for anybody to remove him but if he

decides to fall on his sword, that's a very different matter. Already

there is speculation about who might replace him. Will it be, for

example, Brendan Howland from the old Labour Party? Eamon Gilmore will

be seen by many as being on the Workers' Party, democratic left-wing

of the party. The other name mentioned is Joan Bruton, the

Minister for Social Responsibility. Both of those people are quite old

and there is a move amongst TDs who want to see a much younger, fresher

looking Labour leader and many of the current Labour Ministers

voluntarily to resign so the party has a fresher look. Other people say

Labour's problems go much deeper than changing the leader. Indeed, as

one Labour Minister said at the weekend, if John The Baptist had

been leading the Labour Party it wouldn't have made any difference,

which was of course an unfortunate phrase or metaphor, because John The

Baptist lost his head and it looks as though Eamon Gilmore might be

about to surrender his head. Before we let you go, there is a lot

happening there, what about Enda Kenny and the future for the

coalition. Michael Martin may have had a reasonable enough campaign,

Enda Kenny's results not good if the junior partner in the coalition is

under pressure could we be looking at a general election sooner rather

than we had expected, do you think in the Republic? Well, most of the

attention has focussed on the Labour Party and in a sense a blind eye has

been turned to how badly Fine Gael did. They dropped 12 percentage

points on the last general election. Labour is going to be a much more

needy party over the next two years. The general election was pencilled

in for 2016, the centenary of the 1916 uprising. The Government still

is in a very difficult position financially. It has to two 2 billion

euro out of the economy with a Labour Party that's going to be a

little bit more critical, more looking towards the future. For the

first time questions are being asked about the stability of this

coalition Government. The Labour Party probably has no other choice

other than to stay in Government. Fascinating to hear from you, thank

you very much. Let's come back to my guests here at

the King's Hall in Belfast, just to chew that over a little bit. Connor

Murphy, seismic changes potentially in the Republic at the moment, if

Eamon Gilmore goes and that's informed speculation that he may

fall on his sword, he is there the leader of the Labour Party, the

Minister for Foreign Affairs and the Tanaiste, what impact will that have

on domestic politics if he goes, it's speculative? I think it will

have a significant impact and may have an impact on the future of the

coalition and whether it's an able to run its course to 2016. Labour

have had a disastrous election primarily because they've had a

disastrous three years in Government. They made a series of

promises going into the last general election in the south and proceeded

to abandon them in Government with Fine Gael and seemed to have no

compassion or understanding for the impact austerity policies were

having on the broad public right across the south. In a way I am not

surprised Labour's got the reaction it got. Lib Dems are getting a

similar reaction in Britain. The junior partner in a coalition often

bears the brunt of an unpopular Government from the people in

mid-term elections and that's what's happening to Labour. It certainly

will cause a significant rethink in Labour in relation to the policies,

in terms of medical cards, water charges, and generally the austerity

policies charges, and generally the austerity

pushing through. What about the success in Dublin for Lynne Dolan.

The recount is because the Green candidate thinks he may have taken a

seat. There is a recount happening but she will be confirmed, there is

no doubt about that, but I was following last night a lot of

activity on Twitter and BBC's coverage of what was happening

across the water and RTE's coverage. It's a huge result for her and I

congratulate her, it's been an excellent result for her. She's not

a person who had a high profile before that. She certainly is now.

Absolutely and very able and capable candidate and April and capable MEP.

It reflects growth at local Government level in Dublin, Dublin

City Council and Sinn Fein has become a very significant player

across the city of Dublin and people in the south will tell you that

Dublin is really the cockpit for any general election going forward,

that's where the bulk of the TDs can make or break who forms a

Government. I think it's very encouraging for us to be in the

capital city to be the largest party. I want to go down and hear

more from Tara who has a few more numbers which we might find

interesting. Back to the figures, yes. Nicolas,

what can you tell us about this turnout and we are the top of a

league apparently? That's true. 51% turnout in Northern Ireland is

considerably better than the 33% from the UK as a whole. It's

actually better than the 44% average turnout across the European Union.

That was up the merest tick from last time, 44. 1 compared to 44. 0.

Diane Dodds arriving with her husband, Nigel Dodds. Interesting to

see how the DUP vote shapes up here. It is. My sense is that she will do

better than on her first outing last time. The latest tallies I have been

getting with DUP around 23%, Sinn Fein 28%. So DUP second but not as

far behind as they had been previously. Perhaps she was a bit

more of an unknown quantity the last time but she's made a big play this

time about being one of the most hard-working MEPs and one of the

best attenders in the whole of Europe. I would say all three of the

MEPs are pretty hard-working and diligent in their attention to

duties, I wouldn't want to split hairs between them on that basis. In

terms of her campaign she made a big play of that in her electoral

broadcast. And reasonably so. When it comes to what's happening here,

just describe why there's still so much activity at this end and what

happens once we get closer to getting a candidate elected. It's

important to make sure every vote is counted and is counted accurately in

an election like this. What we have here to the left - to my left, your

right, these people in blue are sorting out the votes according to

who the first preference is for. Then you will see people in red

wandering up and down the other side and each of them will be collecting

votes for one particular candidate. Once they're collected from here

they go over to those wire frames against the wall over there and you

will see that each of those wire frames has got a name on top and

that will be the name of the candidate whose votes are stacked

there. You and I are not of high enough degree to get in there and

actually do the counting, but there are many people around here who are

and I have been asking them small favours to just go and keep an eye

on how the votes are falling at the moment. What's the latest? As I said

- I will get it from the phone, Sinn Fein 28%, DUP 23%, Ulster Unionists

16%, SDLP, 12%, TUV, 10%, Alliance 7%, UKIP 13% and others difficult to

tell, because they're below the radar. We will see hopefully before

teatime. It's a strong factor in politics, never discount teatime!

Thank you very much indeed. There is a bit of a changeover in our guests.

We have been joined by Mike Nesbitt and Martin McGuinness and they're

having a good chat. Don't let me interrupt! Are we on air? Yes, we

are. You should know, the red light is on the camera! You should

remember that. Were they secret discussions about a pact? They were,

indeed, yes. Did you just shake hands there We have shaken hands

many times. You want me to shake hands? Politicians meeting and

greeting and sharing a coffee. David McNarry, we saw you talking earlier,

he looked as if he was giving off about something. What were you

talking about? Transfers? He wasn't giving off at all, he was telling me

about a young relation of his who lives in the south who at the time

of the presidential elections actually thought that her

grandfather and myself looked very alike! It amused me no end. There

are, if you have seen on Twitter and various media, pictures of you side

by side and you look on occasions in a certain light interchangeable.

There you are. No harm in that. Physically, not politically, I

suspect. Mark, you were able to hear a little better than I was Nicolas's

figures there, for the benefit of our guests just remind us of what he

was suggesting. He was running through his official tallies,

unofficial tallies, I should say. Basically confirming the pecking

order that we gave earlier. He reckoned Sinn Fein currently were on

about 28% of the vote. On track to top the poll. The DUP on 23%. Ulster

Unionists on about 16% of the vote. The SDLP on 12% of the vote. That's

significant in as much as it shows if it does work out that way the

SDLP has no chance of this supposed catching up Jim Nicholson so we get

the same three returned. The TUV on 10% of the vote, Alliance on 7% and

it dwindled away then. If that was the case it would be a slight

improvement in Sinn Fein's position. An improvement actually in the DUP's

position, Diane Dodds had a big slab taken out of her vote previously. A

slight decrease in the Ulster Unionist position. A bigger increase

in the SDLP position. A decrease in the TUV position and slight

improvement on part of the Alliance. That said, we put in loads of

caveats at the start of the programme and those have to be

repeated, which is that this is incomplete. Votes are still being

counted. It's affected by all sorts of geographic factors. The best way

to use these kind of tallies and unofficial figures is to give you an

idea of the pecking order. We can call the outcome of the election,

but to call percentages and movements is premature. Mike Nesbitt

over the past few days you have been absolutely delighted with being up

just under 1%. How disappointed would you be... What's funny? That's

true. We are up something like 12% in terms of council seats. Share of

the vote. Share of the vote is important but the most important

thing is the number of councillors you have, 78 would have been status

quo from 2011. We have 88, that's up 12%. In terms of today, Mark, let me

tell you, the only important statistic and percentage is this,

Jim Nicholson started the day 100% an MEP and he is going to finish the

day 100% an MEP and the rest is for you and Mark and whoever else is

interested, I ain't bothered. If he is an MEP, he is an MEP. We are on

our way back. You wouldn't be disappointed then if you were down

1% because you were pleased about being up 1%, I am asking would be be

disappointed if you were down I was pleased we were up 12% in terms of

seats on the super councils. That's a new figure somebody gave you

overnight. The first time I heard you mention that this was this

morning. I mentioned 78 and 88 yesterday. You didn't use the figure

of 12%. You were too busy telling Gregory Campbell he was minus 4%.

You were 0. 9%. I said that made him minus 4%. If we were grow that much

think of what we are going to do next time. I think this is not

really engaining our other guest, is it? -- engaging our other guest.

Remember you are the politician, not the presenter any more! My decision

when we move on, thank you very much. Deputy First Minister, thank

you for joining us. Tell us what you make of those figures and they come

with a considerable health warning as Mark has been reminding us, and

as Nicolas said himself. Up a little for Sinn Fein if the figures that

Nicolas is suggesting are correct. Well, I have a lot of faith in

Nicolas. I think he has shown himself to be an expert on figures

over the course of the years. But we will have to wait and see how this

pans out. And see if those percentages hold up. Certainly from

our perspective these elections this week all over the island of Ireland

have been a stunning success. In many ways this is a watershed

election with the political landscape of politics going to

change on this island over the next number of years. In relation to the

count here today, hasn't come as any surprise to me at all that the three

outgoing MEPs would be returned, that was always my assessment of the

way the vote would break down. I suppose at the end of all of that

it's more an interest around whether or not people's vote held up or not.

And how other parties did. Martina Anderson should match, should match,

well she is bound to match, in fact, bound to beat if 28 is right, the

fact in 2009. Do you think the turnout tells us anything apart from

the fact that because the elections were tied in with the locals more

people might have been inclined to vote? Generally there is a greater

engagement? We are always hoping for greater engagement, and there are

encouraging signs that more people have turned out to vote. I got that

very late last night. I watched the BBC for a short while before I went

to bed at home. Looking at the results coming in from England.

There wasn't one of the constituencies went over 35%

turnout. Given our turnout, in my own constituency of the mid-Ulster

constituency, there was a turnout of almost 60%. We are always hoping

that more and more people would recognise the importance of

elections and how significant elections are for their lives, in

terms of decisions taken. Nicholas was saying 33% is the average UK

turnout. We are sitting at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if

the figure in Scotland was much the same. That is interesting, given

what's happening in Scotland with the run-up to the referendum in

September of this year. One of the impact of elections, apart from

these interesting figures, is they do tend to concentrate the minds of

politicians on the next election that is coming. Do you think there's

an opportunity on the other side of elections to work on the various

issues that are facing the Stormont parties, be they Arlene Foster

objecting to the use of Richard Haass as a term, because she says

he's no longer around be they the past, parades, flags are well fed

reforms which separate you? I personally hope that the window of

opportunity, and I think it is a window of opportunity because I have

a very clear view that if we don't find a way forward on parades, the

past and the whole issue of identity, then the course of that

short window identity, then the course of that

very little likelihood of progress being made on those issues before

the next Westminster or even the next assembly elections. I think it

would be a failure of leadership if we don't crunch this, find a way

forward and put that before the people in a way that will gain the

maximum support. What about welfare reform? All of these issues will

have to be tied up in the time ahead. The most immediate crisis we

are facing is around what's happening in Ardoyne. And whether or

not we can get a solution which would reduce the tension in that

area. I think we've obviously discussed this between ourselves,

and I think there is a general agreement among the powers that be

that there is a short window of opportunity which will only last

maybe five or six weeks. Do you buy into the window of opportunity now?

And very encouraged about the most pressing need being parades. My view

would be if we decoupled these big three blocks, which are incredibly

challenging in their own right, which we've lumped together, which

makes them are very high bar we are trying to clear, when all three are

on the agenda. If we decoupled them and went for Parade's End protest

and got something over the line over the summer, that would be a

tremendous win. I understand in saying that it might sound its that

easy to just decoupled, that might give you a huge problem. But if we

could do it on parades, it would be great in its own right. It also

gives us the momentum which is currently lacking from what was

Richard Haass and then became party leaders after that. Were you in that

-- where are you in that process? We are not in the process at the

moment. We will not be back with the three on the agenda at least until

we've seen the results of the various enquiries into the on the

runs administrative scheme. Here is the Deputy First Minister making

overtures to you today, other parties are saying they think

there's a window of opportunity and you have caused a difficulty for

yourself by walking away. You can't get back into the room again without

having to back down. I could go back into the room if I wanted to. If we

decoupled them I could certainly go back in the room and work hard to

sort out parades and protests. Isn't your responsibility to get into the

room and do difficult talking? I will do the right thing. At the

moment, the right thing is not to be in the room because it was bad faith

demonstrated by Martin McGuinness and Sinn Fein. How will you persuade

Mike Nesbitt to come back into the room, without it looking like he has

completely climbed down? I think there will be a very intense effort

made to persuade people to get into the room. Whether or not they come

into the room is a matter for themselves. He's just accused you of

bad faith. I'm not going to get into a slanging match. My credibility

within the process and the efforts that I have made and my party has

made, for example, whenever the Richard Haass proposals came out, we

were the party that was most wholehearted about it, even though

we compromised on the main issues. At my sense of it is that if there

is going to be a huge effort made. I think it's going to be by more than

just the parties to get everybody into the room over the course of the

next while. If people don't come into the room then the challenges

for those people who are prepared to go into the room, as to whether or

not they are prepared to forge an agreement and move the process

forward, I hope that is what we will do. You both mentioned parades...

Mike did address the issue of decoupling the issue of parades from

the past. That isn't going to happen. Why not? Because there are

three very difficult issues. We all agree this is a challenge. That's

why we asked Richard Haass and O'Sullivan to come from the United

States of America. I think we would be negligent in our duty if we only

attempted to address one of those issues. The issue of the past is the

one we made the most progress on. It's incumbent upon all of us to try

and find a way forward on the three issues. You remember the first

meeting when Richard Haass and O'Sullivan sat with us at the

executive table. He said he felt that dealing with the past was

qualitatively different from parades and flags because they were

tangibles and there were only so many ways to cut them. I have no

doubt that you and I felt at that point that if we got a success it

would be on parades and flags, but I'm dealing with the past the best I

would hope for is agreeing some sort of mechanism for taking it forward

maybe this year. It all changed during the process. I see no reason

why we shouldn't sit down and say on parades and protests, here is the

deal, because we are very close and we have been for months. The big

difficulty about that is people out there in the community would say you

are cherry picking what needs to be done. And you are cherry picking an

issue of concern only to the Orange Order. Also a major concern to

residents. What we have to do is be very honest. We have to recognise

that huge progress was made in relation to the past. More progress

was made on that issue than any other issue. And the challenge for

all of us now is recognising that these elections are over. It comes

down to whether or not people are prepared to show positive

leadership, whether or not there is a role to tackle these issues and

give leadership, which I think people out on the streets are crying

for. We are up for that. Would it not make sense to try to get

whatever agreement you can run any of these difficult issues as a

confidence building measure restaurant if you were able to agree

parades ahead of the marching season, would that not then send out

a message that might allow people a little bit of wriggle room to

dealing with more difficult issues a few months down the line? Look at

your home city, the city of Derry, the way in which it dealt with the

parading issue. It is now held up by many people as a model for

elsewhere. And how did we do that? We didn't acquire a convoluted

process to resolve that. It came down to the willingness of the

residents association, the involvement of the business

community... The overarching system is complicated. Take the bait out we

can agree, agree it and then see where we go. But the difficulty is

the big differences in the place where I come from, the loyal orders

-- orders were prepared to engage in a good-faith way with a view to

resolving those issues. You didn't have the past and those negotiations

or flags. Let me finish what I'm saying. I've said this privately and

also publicly. In relation to the resolution of these issues of the

loyal orders in Belfast are light years behind the loyal orders in

Derry, where I come from. But you telling them that isn't going to

help them. Lets face reality. If you look at this process from the

beginning, it is 16 or 17 years since the Good Friday agreement. The

Orange Order have never, of all the major organisations within our

society, they are the only really major organisation that have never

expressed any support whatsoever for the outcome of the agreement.

Power-sharing, North-South institutions, East-West

institutions. On the issue of parades in Belfast, what we've seen

over the course of the last couple of years, it is a very close

alignment between elements of the UVF in Belfast on the Orange Order.

Some people are in denial about that. And a lot of people take issue

with you suggesting that. I want to put part of what Martin McGuinness

is saying to you. If you now have done as well as you say you've done

over the locals and you are going to do well today as far as Jim

Nicholson is concerned, if politics and elections are about results and

mandates, then your hand is strengthened, if what you say is

correct, and you have a bigger mandate now to give leadership on

these issues. So you can stand up and actually suggest things to the

community that perhaps might have been difficult for you to suggest

last week or last month. Yes, there's an element of that. Are you

going to do that? I've been a party leader for two years but I haven't

led us through an election. To that extent you are not a proper party

leader, there's something missing. I have a mandate now that I didn't

have. What are you going to do with that mandate? I'm going to give

positive leadership. That means doing the right thing. It sometimes

means saying no. You asked me a question on Saturday, when you were

talking about some people thought you were going to be liberal and

were being a bit more right wing or whatever. You balked at the word

liberal. In that context. I want to achieve things that are fair. To be

fair, sometimes you are going to have to be seen to be hard-line.

Other times you might be seen to be soft. Not as capable as being

interpreted as liberal or conservative. Those are

old-fashioned terms. Being fair, doing the right thing is the

important thing. But when Martin McGuinness says to you the loyal

orders in Belfast are light years behind the loyal orders in his home

city, are you going to offer leadership, are you going to save

things to the loyal orders in Belfast that they might not want to

hear, but stand toe to toe to them and say, listen, guys, you may have

got this wrong because I think now you may have got this wrong because

I think now Unionism follow my leadership and I have an enhanced

mandate? I'm not going to say have an enhanced mandate, but I'm going

to do the right thing. If that means saying things they don't want to

hear, I will do it. That doesn't mean I haven't done that already, by

the way. But I do need to do is get a better knowledge of the loyal

orders, because Martin McGuinness is saying they are one thing

Londonderry and another thing in Belfast. That's not news to you. I'm

not a member and have never been looking to join. I need to do a bit

more work on those things. But some of the accusations about the UVF and

the Belfast loyal order being one and the same thing was ridiculous.

Reg Empey is a member of the loyal orders in Belfast. You are going to

tell me he is in the UVF? Please! I don't think anybody is suggesting

that. Let me tell you one point that Mike said. Positive leadership isn't

about saying no. Positive leadership is about five doing solutions and

saying yes. That is what I have done throughout this peace process for

over 20 years. About finding a way forward on things like the agreement

itself, in 1998. Our decision to take our seats in Stormont. The

decision of the IRA to put their weapons beyond use. The decision of

Sinn Fein to sign up for policing and into government with the DUP.

This was all about finding solutions to move the situation forward. So

positive leadership isn't about saying no. It's about finding

solutions and saying yes. What I'm saying to you... You said it is

sometimes about saying no. I disagree. Those three issues all

lumped together, it's not working. I just want to roll you back to the

question I was going to la --, about positive leadership. Were you

hinting, when you both were talking about North Belfast, that even if we

don't get an overarching group, something to change on the ground

there within the next short time? I think that would be very useful for

both communities. Is that a realistic possibility? I don't see

why not. The secret in success in resolving the issue of parades is

engagement between local communities and the loyal orders. It worked when

I come from, I can't see why it wouldn't work in Belfast. Dialogue

is critical. We will continue shortly. I want to cross back to

Tara, who is sampling the views of the SDLP. She has Mark Durkan with

her. Some suggestions of a drop of about 4%, what are you hearing? It's

hard to fully say at this stage because we still don't know exactly

which votes are still to come through but where we had been hoping

to pitch in, somewhere 15% or over, looks as though we are falling short

of that. Now that may slightly change, I don't know. As it stands

at the moment, we would be disappointed in our share of the

vote at this stage. Alex Attwood was a very good candidate, he ran a very

good campaign and a very positive campaign in that sense. In

circumstances we are hearing people all over the place have been voting

for change, people here in the north have chosen to vote essentially for

the same slate of MEPs. There are lots of different interpretations.

One thing that a couple of commentators have said that your

comments on Saturday's programme were a criticism or Friday's

programme were a criticism of the leadership in Belfast compared to

how the party's getting on in you are in -- you are in neck of the

woods. I don't know what comments were meant to be a criticism of the

party. The party clearly had a difficult election in Derry where we

didn't make the number of seats that we wanted to make. We know why that

is in terms of some local issues. Yes, there was some turbulence

during the campaign itself in the last few days but we know in terms

of some of those issues that benefitted strong independent

candidates, we know what factors are there. We also know we still held up

a healthy enough mandate in Derry, even in those circumstances. But we

have to work harder and we have to do better, not just in Derry, but

right across. We have thinking and talking to do. We listened during

the campaign, we have to reflect on a lot of what we heard on a lot of

those issues, because people want to hear us, not talking about our

problems, people want to hear us talking about their problems and the

sooner the SDLP can get into a position where we are seen to be

talking about the issues, rather than ourselves as inissue the

healthier we will find ourselves. The difficulty is while the polls

are not doing well in your corner, that's going to be very difficult.

What about the leadership then, this was Alasdair McConnell's first

election in charge, what message does it send to him -- McDonnell.

The party - if it's asked about leadership and this isn't the first

election where that has arisen, let's not try to pretend it is. That

creates a difficult problem for the party to try to break through of

that, because the party is constantly being asked to talk about

itself. And talk about trying to explain itself and explain problems

and issues. What you need to be doing in politics is talk being the

issues that affect people and matter to people, the problems that are

facing firps and families still here for all -- firms and families still

here for all the talk of recovery. Many families and firms still need

better than they're getting out of Stormont. Devolution needs to be

delivering better, the new councils are going to have a tall order of

delivery. People need to see that we are focussed on that agenda as well

as sorting out whatever issues we have to sort out for ourselves.

First and foremost about the issues that matter to people in terms of

the economy and our community. You have said that throughout the

campaign and the other analysts have said that the Catholic vote is

staying at home, particularly the middle-class vote that would perhaps

traditionally have voted for the SDLP. Yes, there is a stay at home

factor and people were telling us again on the doorsteps, some were

telling us clearly they thought they were not going to vote. They gave us

different reasons for that. In some cases it's because they didn't think

enough was happening, they're fed up and frustrated. There's nobody more

fed up and frustrated with the lack of delivery and falseness of some of

the policy stances at Stormont than the SDLP. We need a mandate to help

to unlock that. Some people are deciding no, unlock that first and

we will come back and vote for you. Some people are punishing the SDLP

almost as a way of punishing the lack of delivery on the executive,

even somebody saying to me, oh, until you lead a cavalcade up to

Stormont to expose the fact they're not delivering things, why should I

vote for you? I am saying, we need a mandate, how do you expect us to

deliver differently out of Stormont if we don't get mandates and deliver

better in the councils if you don't give us a mandate? The pressure is

on you now really in the next 12 months, the focus will go to the

Foyle seat to see if you can retain it. Foyle has always been a tough

fight. I have never been complacent about that. People will know in

Foyle at the next election that the choice is going to be between

whether or not they have an active purposeful SDLP MP speaking up in

parliament and using that platform or whether they have someone who

just wants to claim the seat to issue press releases. Thank you very

much. Back to you, Mark. Thank you very much, Tara.

Interesting fact that's come my way, only Northern Ireland and the Baltic

States are continuing to count their first preferences. We are not alone

if you want to be positive. If you want to be negative we are at the

rump of the count. Let's hear from Stephen Walker in Westminster for us

and following developments. First of all, the Scottish result was pretty

interesting. It was, Mark, because UKIP now have their first ever MEP

in Scotland and that gives you an indication of how strong the UKIP

vote is, not only are they polling well in places like the north-east

of England, south-west of England and Wales where the vote went up

15%, but the fact they've taken a seat in Scotland. The SNP got two

seats. Labour got a seat and the Tories. The misery continued for the

Lib Dems, they lost a seat. The SNP were hopeful of three seats in

Scotland. But they got two. They did top the poll. What about the wider

political fallout, what pressures are the other parties under? Well,

there's lots of pressure on all of them. There's pressure on David

Cameron to try and bring this 2017 referendum forward. There's a lot of

debate going on within his party and a lot of pressure from Eurosceptics.

Again there is pressure on Ed Miliband, people are asking that

Labour should back a referendum and people are saying that whilst it was

a good result, it's still not good enough. Obviously enormous pressure

on Nick Clegg. Before the European election campaign he had 12 MEPs. He

is down to a single MEP and there are voices, not many of them at the

moment, and he is get ago lot of support from party grandeees, but

there is pressure on Nick Clegg. Finally, the by-election, Nigel

Farage, the UKIP leader, has been talking about that today. He has, he

has warned David Cameron that if the Tories lose the by-election then

David Cameron and the Tories face a long, hot summer.

I couldn't hear Stephen there. But he was telling us - Mike Nesbitt and

Martin McGuinness are still with us, let's talk about some issues. First

of all, Scotland. UKIP have taken a seat in Scotland. It's not just

England and Wales. They're performing well in Scotland. A lot

of pressure for David Cameron to bring that 2017 referendum that he

has promised, if he is re-elected next May, forward to this

parliament. What's pressure like that starts it can build up quickly,

can't it? You can see that there will be the Eurosceptics within his

own party saying we can't staunch this UKIP rise by saying we might

hold a referendum in 2017 after renegotiation when there is no

promise that the other European countries will renegotiate the terms

of the UK membership. That's why they were hit by UKIP. I think we

are facing into a referendum in Scotland coming up in the course of

the autumn and this election might well have some impact there. It

could have a knock-on effect here. Mike Nesbitt, your party candidate

had the three Rs as his mantra, renegotiate, reform... Review first

of all. It's under way. I would encourage people to look at the

Foreign and Commonwealth Office website. They're going through every

bit of relationship between the UK and Europe and once we know exactly

what Europe does and what powers and influence it has, then we do want to

renegotiate and after that put it to the people in a referendum. Do not

let UKIP force through an early referendum. That would be a disaster

and the reason why is I think people would then vote emotionally and I

fear the emotional reaction would shall let's get out of here. --

would be, let's get out of here. Northern Ireland voted to stay in by

less than 2% before. I imagine if we had a referendum in Northern Ireland

on membership tomorrow we would probably vote to come out without

considering all the facts. There is a lot of talk about what it costs us

to be in and Jim Allister was clever to bring it down to ?1 million an

hour that sounds shocking. Is is he right? I do not think anybody can

tell you what we get out in Northern Ireland for every pound that we put

in because it is so complicated. On certain programmes you can certainly

do that but the other issue is what would it cost us to come out? A

leading local economist asked me the question which country per head pays

most to be in the common market that is now the EU? The answer, he said,

is Norway and Norway is not a member. To gain access to that

market they're paying more per head than we are. So to come out would be

an incredibly expensive thing. Martin McGuinness, what do you make

of review, renegotiate and referendum, the three Rs? Could you

sign up to that? We are totally and absolutely opposed to withdrawing