Local - Part 1 Vote 2014

we continue coverage here on BBC News. It is time for us to join our

colleagues on BBC One and Vote 2014. Good evening and welcome to the

BBC's new election centre. The polls closed at ten o'clock and we are

waiting. Stay with us for the results, analysis and the excitement

of the election night on the BBC. The general election is a year away

and what voters have said today will encourage some parties and alarm

others. Over the next few hours we will be live at many of these

contests. We will get the results coming in and we will analyse what

they mean. Everyone has their dreams tonight. The PM David Cameron is

dreaming of a result which would show how he can win an overall

majority in the House of Commons without relying on the Lib Dems. His

coalition partner, Nick Clegg, humiliated in local elections,

longing to persuade his members he can stop this right. Ed Miliband,

neck and neck with the Tories in the opinion polls, dreaming of pulling

ahead tonight and establishing a sound lead over the Tories. Then, of

course, there is the wild card Nigel Farage and UKIP. They took bites out

of the other parties at the last year 's elections. They are ready

for another mouthful tonight. So, what's in store over the next

few hours? We will get some results tonight from the 161 councils in

England and more tomorrow afternoon when we get some from Northern

Ireland. No elections in Scotland and Wales. They are voting in the

European elections. We will be back on Sunday once the European polls

close on the continent to find out who has won those elections, not

just in every corner of the UK, but in the other 27 members of the EU as

well. Nick Robinson is on hand to interpret the message that voters

are sending and alongside him is a panel of some of the most senior

politicians in Britain. And of course, Emily Maitlis, keeping a

sharp eye on the battleground. We will keep this screen here to show

you the live results. We will look at places the Conservatives are

defending. How many will turn meant by the end of the night? And

labour? `` turn red. Will we see them slip back? The Lib Dems? How

many will still be yellow by the end of tonight? Exciting stuff. These

results will come through to us from the various counts. We have cameras

at lots of these key contests. We are live here in Swindon, where the

Tories are holding onto overall control against the Labour Party

challenge. We are in Kingston upon Thames in London where the Lib Dems

are trying to hold off the Conservatives and, in rather, solid

Labour Party territory for as long as anyone can remember, but we'd

UKIP are hoping to pick up seats. That is just a few of the battles

and many might turn out to be unexpected. Jeremy Vine, with his

map of great return will analyse the picture and look at the figures as

they come in and their impact all importantly on next year 's general

election. There are two battlegrounds tonight. We have the

map on the floor. Let me colour it in. The other battleground is

Parliament. We are looking at the map to see what it tells us about

who goes down that corridor in 2015 at the general election as a new MP.

And, we already have the first results in and fascinating results

they are. From Sunderland in the north`east, they show that UKIP is

making extraordinary gains in local elections in place they fought

before. Emily, you have the figures. Just for a health warning, we

haven't got the full results for Sunderland. It is the share so far.

We have put together the percentages of the share of the vote from the 12

wards we have had in so far. That is quite an astonishing picture. Labour

Party at 47%. That is mathematically impossible for the Labour Party to

lose this. Look at this. UKIP come up to second place on 24%, the

Conservatives are down to 23% of the vote. If I show you what happened in

the change, you get the real sense. They have come from nowhere. This

24% has been gained on one night tonight from nowhere. Each of the

other parties take a hit. The Lib Dems are the most down, 15%. To the

detriment of the Labour Party and the Conservatives. We have the full

results we will bring you the picture. They are counting on

quickly in Sunderland. They are always quick to count in Sunderland.

That is extraordinary. It is. You spoke about the dreams of each of

the party leaders. It reminds you that they have had nightmares as

well. That will confirm their nightmares. David Cameron's

nightmare is that the Tory family might fracture in a way that it

simply cannot be reassembled in time for a general election victory. Ed

Miliband's nightmare is that perhaps all the anger with the coalition,

which is out there, is bypassing the official opposition and is going

instead to a new Forth political force. The Lib Dems, they got the

kicking in Sunderland `` fourth. We thought they were the emerging

second force in politics in the north of England. The nightmare for

them is that the recovery they dreamt of and believed in, if they

simply persisted with the coalition, may never be coming. Nigel Farage

will look at that and he will have one other slight nightmare. He might

think it is his night already. 24% up, but not a single councillor

elected. He may amass votes for his party in large parts around the

country and still struggle to get that many seats. That is their

problem. It is in a first past the post contest. Tonight selections for

councils as they will be for Westminster are first past the post.

You need a majority. In Europe, it is different. You can't

underestimate the power to disrupt the political structure if you get

makes in rows across Britain even if they don't win seats or have a

chance at winning seats in Westminster. The sheer

unpredictability of four party politics. Scotland and Wales have

had that for a long time. Nationwide vote, it makes it unpredictable.

They will be scrambling to get those votes back from UKIP, one way or

another. These results will trigger a bout of soul`searching in each of

the political parties. Should they confront UKIP? The Times tomorrow is

leading with internal criticisms of Ed Miliband's decision to not do

that. The Tory party will say, should we move clearly onto their

turf? The Shadow Home Secretary in the past has made the argument.

These will be treated even by results that don't produce

councillors elected. Let's cross to the map of Britain. I'll give you

some context. I will colour it in in the colour of the parties that won

these councils last time they were up. They're in mind that 36

metropolitan boroughs, held by the Labour Party, 74 district councils

and 19 authorities, not forgetting all 32 London boroughs being

contested in these local elections. UKIP is obviously or may well be the

news tonight. They were the news last year as well. This was the

sensation we were faced with. This is the projected national share from

2013. We saw last year for the first time the two main parties forced

under 30%. Both of them and the arrival of this craft for the first

time you get. Almost one vote in four to Nigel Farage's party, 23%.

14% to the Lib Dems and the others on 9%. That was the first time that

UKIP appeared on the graph. That was sensational for them. Every go back

further, a disappear as they did not figure. Let's go back to the period

of the mid` 2000 is. I will bring the graph up now. Michael Howard,

Tony Blair, what was happening here? Labour in first place, 33%. But of

course reddish politics is that the nationally governing party gets

punished in local elections. No exception for Tony plan. You that

night in 2009 when they fell below the Liberal Democrats? Then we get

to 2010. Important tonight as the baseline here for these elections.

The comparison year, the last time these seats were contested. Also,

the year the coalition won the general election. You know what

comes next. They start to get punished. The Conservatives come

down, labour comes up, Liberal Democrats take a bashing. You expect

Labour to come up on as the opposition. And they are almost

being suppressed here. The Lib Dems' ongoing horror show, you can

see. It is hard for UKIP to turn its share of the vote into councillors.

That is the difficult thing. The Dili, to turn it into councils.

Let's show you this graph. `` particularly, to turn it into

councils. This is Labour in power nationally. Here is the graph. Let

see. You see conservative councils in the lead. And watch what happens

here, as we bring the graph through, Labour struggles after

three election wins, getting worse and worse. Then we get to a point,

this is the absolute peak of the Conservatives in government. 9400,

the combined total of the two other main parties in 2010. After they win

power nationally, they come down just a bit. Labour come up. The Red

Line does not quite cross the blue line, we will watch that tonight. We

will also of course be watching that led them line `` Liberal Democrat

line. It'll be interesting to see these results. We will feed them

into our stats. Back to you, David. We join the chairman of UKIP in our

Westminster studio. What you make of this result in Sunderland? 25 or 30%

UKIP vote. Extremely encouraging. A very good start to the evening. As

he pointed out, not somewhere where we have had a strong showing in the

past. An area that we were looking to build, and a very solid start.

What are you going to say to the refrain which will be constant

tonight that you will vote win any councillors there, let alone an MP.

In other words, UKIP as a kind of protest from voters? Well, I think

it is hard to continue to make that point. What we are seeing, in the

county council elections last year, county council elections last year,

all of our performances were between 19.5 and 26.2%, right across the

country. The point here is that this isn't simply a big protest, it is a

very consistent amount of the voting public moving to UKIP on a

consistent basis. What that does it tell the voting public that if you

vote UKIP you are amassing... You are in good company. We are going to

see higher figures than this during the course of the evening. Like last

year, we will see good results, but councillors elected, and our county

councillors have had quite an effect in quite a number of councils, since

they were elected last year. I am not expecting this to just be some

sort of ballast vote. This is really changing the shape of politics. Stay

with us, I will bring in our guest in the studio. I am sure you would

like to hear from the three parties damaged UKIP about this result in

Sunderland. We are joined by the Liberal Democrats' member, and the

chairman of the Conservatives. And Labour's chairman. You did not

expect them to get anything back, did you? This isn't the first time

we have seen UKIP showing presence in the north`east. They did not

badly in South Shields. Also Rotherham and parts of the north. We

are in an area of four `` era of four party politics. This is

dissatisfaction with politics. In many respects, support and votes for

UKIP is very much a symptom. It is not the cure. The challenge they

have is illustrating that they can be more than a repository for anger.

But why should they be discontented with you? You are out of office. You

are the opposition. They are discontented with the entire

political system. What have you done to upset them as Labour? What we

have done since 2010, since we were booted out of office in our second

worst defeat in history. We have steadily made progress since then.

Many of the arguments we have been making, I actually launched our

local election campaign in the north`east at the beginning of this

period. The types of things I have been talking about to people when I

was there was how we strengthen the minimum wage. We have to clampdown

on zero hours contracts. And make sure that people continue to have

good access to energy services. It has not been very effective. I don't

agree with that. We have just had the results from Sunderland. Not

even all of them. But you know, every bit of information is a help,

isn't it? Well, you would say that. I would say that when I talk to

people about the issues, UKIP is somewhere people can place their

anger. Do they think that for example charging people to see their

GP, which UKIP advocates as the answer might know. A flat rate of

tax, and increasing it for everyone except the wealthy, they don't want

that. At least that is what they told me. The Liberal Democrats have

been wiped out pretty well in Sunderland. Not our finest result

ever. Not your finest result. Not our finest result. But talking about

what you were talking about is that the reason UKIP have had such

amazing success and rapid rise, partly about being an anger

repository, but they have also managed to sound like human beings.

That is Nigel Farage's big win. All of us have gotten to the point where

we are so guarded, we are so on message, that we seem to have lost

some of our humanity. I think it is a very human thing that has

happened, as well. As well as the dissatisfaction, it is the Liberal

Democrats as the whipping boys in the coalition. I personally think we

are the good guys and history will recognise this, but possibly not

tonight. Nick Baker is not recognised as a human being in the

same way that Nigel Farage news. I think he was, finally another in the

last election debates, he came over as a human being `` Nick Clegg. I

watched the debate and didn't interpret them as everyone else in

the country seems to have done. One of the problems there was, I guess,

partly being in government, we have become ministerial, or more

political, and perhaps we have lost some of our humanity which Nick

Clegg had four years ago. I think in the end there is the point that when

this. Part, the substance which lies in need is very shallow. Early days

from one partial result. Interesting result however. Tonight will be

interesting to see. Voters will send a clear message and we will want to

see what they have to say. In the end we need to deliver a long`term

plan and solve the problems in this country. You don't solve those are

easy soundbites and very quick solutions to conduct problems. You

do it by having a proper programme which is rather old and boring but

has stopped the country from going bust, which is where it was going.

They are ready quick out the blocks saying the answer is packed with

UKIP. You should stop sneering them and have a packed. This is from a

well`known critic who want reason to get out of the EU. He didn't wait

long. First of all, the Conservative Party the Conservative Party. We

will stand as Conservatives next election. There is no question of

there being a packed per se. But what tonight will be interesting to

see as we get more results, we are anxious to see some of these

long`term problems resolved. We want to see more being done to resolve

them, whether it is getting that economic recovery, more results,

more jobs, immigration, welfare, better education, all the things we

have been getting on with which people want to see more progress on.

But let's wait and see. It is early days. Let's bring you back in. Talk

of a packed, saying you and the Tories should get together. I think

talks of pacts are entirely inappropriate. Can I just say that

you really did put your finger on something. The experience I have had

at doorstops is the constant refrain from people that I am voting for you

because I like the fact that you say what you mean and say things that

other people don't say. And you speak straightforwardly, and that is

something which undoubtedly is making people vote UKIP. What is

happening in this campaign is that a lot of effort has been put into

trying to channel UKIP's message back into the straitjacket of the

normal way of political speaking. And it has failed. It has

consistently backfired, actually. Thank you very much. Hold it there,

we will get out and about around the country and see what is going on. If

you are watching us with your computer and smartphone, just a

reminder that you can follow the results online on our website. And

you can watch the debate unfold of course on social media. Following us

at our hashtag. Let's go to Kingston. In Surrey, our

correspondent there, Alex Forsyth, the Liberal Democrats hold it and

are trying to hold off a Conservative challenge which would

be really bad news for the Liberal Democrats, if because of the

coalition, they were defeated and lost the seat. How are things going?

We are some ways of a result. We have just started counting the

result. They have been verifying the postal votes, so we are not

expecting the first result until 2am. Speaking to people out and

about, to try and get a sense of how the candidates feel, the thing is it

is a key battleground between conservatives and Liberal

Democrats. The Liberal Democrats have held it for the last decade.

But the Conservatives only need to take three seats to wrest control

from the Liberal Democrats. Three and they are laughing. And they are

confident they might have done that already. The Liberal Democrats hope

that despite the fact of the sense of their unpopularity at a national

level, they can use their local infrastructure, they are good on the

ground here, they hope to use that to see them through. They know it is

a difficult fight. And they threw into the mix the impact of the other

parties. Labour have not had any seats on the council since 2010. A

hope to take a couple. And UKIP as well `` they hope to take a couple,

and UKIP as well are being told they might take some of the Conservative

vote. But as you say, the thing is that the Liberal Democrats feel the

need to hold it. They have held it for so long and if they don't there

will be questions about whether or will be questions about whether or

not that as a result of the impact of their party being in government

nationally. I was going to ask whether the Energy Secretary, a

Liberal Democrat, can hold onto his seat at the general election? I

should have said Kingston is in Greater London, one of those

boroughs. That means all of the seats Dopfer election in the whole

of London. Most of the other ones, we are talking about just one third

of these councils . `` up for collection. We will be back for you

again. Thank you very much and keep us in touch with what happens. `` up

for election. Let's go to rob a rum. `` Rotherham. We are expecting a

result at three o'clock tomorrow morning. UKIP are putting in a lot

of effort into this area. This is an old steel mill. It is a powerhouse

of problems industry. Traditionally, it has been a Labour town, for 80

years, 95% of councillors here are from Labour. The story is whether

UKIP can take any of those council seats away from them. Labour are

worried that they can take some of their seats away. Paul Sykes, a

local businessman, just behind, he has put a lot of money into rather

run. They have been leafleting all over the town to see whether they

can take seats away. `` Rotherham. I think they will be disappointed with

that, there are worried Labour faces here tonight. It is whether UKIP can

take seats away from Labour. I do not think they will be taking the

council away. Most people will be looking towards the vote on Sunday.

I am not talking about the European election but the football, Rotherham

playing in the championship, the league one play`off final. I think

Rotherham will be staying bread for the time being! Nick has a brief

word he would like to put in. UKIP are not running in as many wards as

other parties. Half of the wards, when we talk about Kingston, they

are running at about 25%, a quarter of the wards in London. They are

doing well but not the national force that the big three parties

are. Let's have a look at some of the key Tory Labour battles

tonight. Emily has them here. Let's hear about them. These are the ones

that the Conservatives are defending tonight, some of them, I should say.

These many of them in labours grasp, if they are having a good night. Let

me explain the board, these are marginal at the top, the ones that

could be most easily lost. As we scroll down, they get more secure.

They are less honourable. Let me take you inside the make`up the

Swindon council. It is a two horse race between the Conservatives and

Labour but they have a slim majority of one here, if they lose one

councillor here tonight, then this council goes into no overall

control, in other words, the Tories no longer have control. But Labour

still need six seats to take it. It is more than ask. They could do it,

we will get a sense of that direction of travel as to how many

games they are making. Croydon, in south London, it has changed a lot

`` gains. They can take the Labour vote, put the Conservative vote

down. There could be a switch from Conservative to Labour. Let's go to

Tamworth, there are a lot of key polymer treat marginals in this part

of the world. It will be closely watched for next year 's general

election, Labour are fighting hard. `` key marginals in this part of the

world. This shows that Labour have been coming up after the election,

the Tories have dropped slightly. We have not mentioned much in this bit

about Basildon, about UKIP, I was going to say. This is somewhere that

labour... So you can did extraordinarily well, at a county

council level. `` labour. They got 30% of the vote, how will they do in

Basildon Labour. ? ``. We will be looking to see how they do in their

performance. UKIP have about 230 councillors, don't they? At the

moment. They have 4200 council seats. It will be interesting to

see. The experts in these matters say that if they get up towards

100, 80 seats, then they will be doing well. You were talking last

year, if you could literally having a handful of councillors each

election for a series of elections, 147 games lasted. You will talking

about being a high watermark for about being a high watermark for

them. It is quite small compared with the totals of others. ``

gains. Let's go down to Swindon. Let's join the political editor of

the West of England, a big area to cover. We were talking about

Swindon. What do you detect as happening in Swindon itself? It is

very interesting indeed. We were talking about barometer seats,

places that you get an indication about the election from. In the past

30 years, the winning party has won the keys to Downing Street. This is

a council that really matters, a two horse race between the Conservatives

with a majority of only one at the moment, and Labour who are

challenging. I have spoken to senior Conservatives here tonight, local

MPs, the council leader, they are very bullish indeed. Not only of

holding onto their majority but even increasing it. There is a distinct

likelihood I would say at this point that Labour could go backwards

slightly in Swindon. Losing a seat to the Conservatives, even a

possibility of the Lib Dems even picking up his seat. Specific local

issues at play here. We are looking at both parties holding onto what

they have `` picking up a seat. Labour could backwards. But, you

should not be going backwards, could you? Let's have a look at the result

in Swindon first. I expecting to go backwards anywhere tonight? Not

particularly but what we are hoping to do is make good and steady

progress. I think about 150 games would be good for us, we are going

to be keeping a close eye in the southern marginal areas where we

could form a majority in the next general election `` gains. In

Cambridge or Redbridge. You are modest, 150, I quote the experts...

They said 400 `500 gains compared to previous... You have to factor in

that the last time many of these local authorities were up to

election was back in 2010, and many of these were in Labour areas, and

the higher turnout that we had during the general election then,

actually, if you look at London, for example, in my borough in Lambeth,

we did very well in spite of very difficult national picture. I got

this information from John Curtis who is studying these things

throughout the night back there, he says that any claim you are making

progress is somewhat belied, I am using his words, by the fact that

your vote is so far down, by 16 points since 2012 in the Sunderland

wards, that is a lot. I was talking relative to 2010. We have only had a

few results in so far, David. Can I pick up on... ? It is a modest

ambition. In the general election in 2010, and the local elections there.

What we called the projected national share, the share was 27%.

We are talking of the second worst result in Labour 's history, after

Michael foot in 1983, to set 150 councillor gains as your benchmark,

that is about as low as credibility can get. We have a long evening. I

do not want to run out of things to say! What are you saying? I am not

saying anything at all! Let's go to Basildon. Andrea Sinclair is our

correspondent `` Andrew Sinclair. What has happened to UKIP is the

question here? They won a by`election there last year, Andrew?

It is very interesting, as Emily said, they had a good turnout here

and a good result and the county council elections. This is one of

the places where we could see the Labour advance, that Jeremy was

talking about, being squeezed by UKIP tonight. The Tories have run

this authority for the last 11 years, and Labour have been

gradually whistling away at their majority, and the expectation was

that we could see some notable Labour games tonight. Labour are

expecting to make some gains tonight. `` Labour gains. ``

whittling away. There are going to be some gains tonight, that will

temper the Labour advance. Labour are saying that all the East Anglia

they will make gains but it will not be on the scale that they were

hoping for. Earlier on, you were saying that you were not expecting

Labour to go backwards anywhere, but in great Yarmouth, Labour locally,

where they run the council, they are expected to lose control of the

council tomorrow because of the UKIP surge. `` Great Yarmouth. Thank you

for that, let's have a look at UKIP voters, people who say they will

vote this time or in the Euro elections, they take place at the

same time. What will they do during the general election? That is the

important thing, there could be a protest vote or they could decide to

stick. That is what UKIP will be watching. That is the point exactly,

where these UKIP votes will go next year in the general election. Let's

have a look at the map, and bring up the new map. Let's register the fact

that there is not a lot of colouring in. The night is still young. There

are a lot of results to come in. Let's have a look at this line graph

which could give us some recent history. 1999, and European

elections that year, you can see a paddle that UKIP is strong in

European elections and in general elections they fall back. 1999, they

were not completely on the radar. 7%. In 2001 there went out to%. You

know what is coming, in 2004, they do better, they do better each year

with the European elections. In 2005, look at this exact, they

cannot get noticed in general elections. In this succession of

years that we are showing you. Up they go even higher in 2009, the

last European elections. 2010, a long way down. And then up again.

This last one is local elections. A different figure that we are showing

you. Today, those European elections, we will see the results

on Sunday. You can see that pattern, that in general elections, the key

being sliced away by other parties. They are not fully part of that

debate. The question for us here is whether something is changing.

Whether next year there could be a completely different outcome for

UKIP. Let me show you a small bit of evidence, that suggests they could

be a change going on. We are looking here at the last European elections

in 2009, these are all UKIP voters here. They voted for UKIP in the

European elections but then, they were asked how they would vote in

the general election. The figure is poor for UKIP, only 26% will stay

with the party. 44% will vote Conservative. They would drift from

UKIP to the Conservative party. This craft is now changing. The reading

was taken again for these European elections, and let's have a look...

Let's see how resilient UKIP Spode is this year. `` the UKIP vote is.

58% so that they will vote UKIP in the general election. A big drop for

the Conservatives, they are not voting. `` 58% say that they will

vote UKIP. It makes you wonder, whether this exact line were to come

to an end, and the level of support that we could see tonight, and we

could see on the results light of the European elections could be

sustained next year in the general election. Thank you very much. ``

results night. That could be trouble for you, Grant? Everyone knows

something from local elections would general elections, that is

difficult. The key message tonight is the message from the voters, and

what they will be sending. We will have to wait for more results, and

see the pattern that could emerge. People would conclude that people

are anxious to see more action on the key issues that matter. You have

less than a year to go, a 58 cents of the people who vote for UKIP say

they will vote for them again, it will dent your...? `` 58%. We have a

long`term plan whether people in this country can get back on track.

They will do that with job security. What is the long`term plan? We took

over at a time when there was a ?160 billion debt. There were spending

more than they received. Let me give you a practical example. The 1.5

million people who have jobs today that didn't have jobs at the last

election, those people understand what the long`term plan is. They are

will things people, people are feeling the economic and efforts of

recovery. Many of the jobs are insecure. We have a record number of

people on zero hours contract. Half a million people working in

temporary work, not full`time work. Let me answer that one point. What

is insecure is that every Labour government in history has left

unemployment higher than when they came in. Many people will wonder

what this man is saying. Leave the tit for tat for a moment. We

some results in. They have won a seat, not officially, but according

to the former Labour Lord Mayor, he told the Daily Mail he has lost his

seat to UKIP. It may be the first. John Curtis, our resident bureau.

King of all he surveys, `` resident guru. Bring us your view of what we

can make of what we have heard so far on UKIP. It is a UKIP story at

the moment. We have heard Jeremy Vine talking about how people will

stick with UKIP. Here we have three politicians from the other parties

trying to show they are not desperately worried. The first word

of caution is that all the detailed results we have had have been for

Sunderland. We have two allow the possibility that Sunderland is maybe

not typical of the rest of the country. Reports from our

correspondent suggest the high UKIP vote there may not be the exception

rather than the rule. Intriguingly, so far, inside Sutherland, UKIP are

averaging 26% of the vote `` Sunderland. In the last elections,

they got an average of 25%. In other words, so far, in this one corner of

England. They are doing as well as they did across the whole of England

last year. We may perhaps be looking at a UKIP performance not dissimilar

to that we saw 12 months ago, which at the time was regarded as truly

remarkable. We will have to wait and see. We have another game, a Lord in

Basildom for UKIP. You were talking about 80 or so gains tonight. The

point is that if UKIP are indeed doing as well as they did last year,

they will start to pick up seats. `` Basildon. There are enough places

where they will begin to get first and second is, and we will into the

notable UKIP gains through the course of the night. Remember, it is

so far mostly just Sunderland. We must not get carried away, although

there is something about the first results which come in, you keep

talking about them until the second results come in. But Nick, what will

be the effect, if UKIP makes the kind of headway they are making only

three political parties and their leadership in particular, in your

view? There will be pressure on each of them in turn. We are already

seeing that. Unnamed Labour ministers, a newspaper which wants

to damage Ed Miliband, which is why they put it on their front page, but

nevertheless, people are willing to go into print saying Ed Miliband has

got it wrong and should have confronted UKIP directly. He is

personally not doing well. There are people calling for a packed, we have

Douglas Carswell doing it, so they will have a debate. `` pact. And a

prize for candour, as some politicians are interpreted as not

being human enough. How do they rediscover that human touch? One

last thought. This changes UKIP as well. Half until now, they have

really been a one man Dan. It has been a decision being capable of

being taken by a Nigel Farage. `` up until now. Once you put roots down

as a party you have structures and end up with democracy. People wish

to have a say about what you do. It is no longer simply a question of

going to Mr Farrow is an saying, what you think policy is today or

tomorrow. Once they have this presents around the country, it will

start to be a living and breathing political organisation `` Mr Nigel

Farage. Do you go to Nigel Farage and say what do you do today? No we

don't, actually. We are very democratic. I love the 1`man band

argument. There is a strong group of people behind Nigel Farage, we are a

very democratic organisation. I asked him on the campaign trail, are

you in favour of privatising the NHS? Nowhere not, he said, but we

haven't developed our policy on that yet. But your Deputy Leader is in

favour of it. And he replied, he is only the Deputy Leader. A leader

simply brushing away the comment of his deputy. You are misinterpreting

what he said. Point was that he hadn't developed policy. It is being

developed by experts. That is how our policy builds. Through using the

expertise which exist within the party. Nigel will express an

opinion, and others will as well, it doesn't mean that anyone is saying

that this is our policy. You accept that the manifesto at the last

election was rubbish, and it has all been torn up and you have to start

from scratch. That is pretty much the case, isn't it? Or parties start

from scratch. The difficulty we had is a very extensive manifesto at the

last general election. It was an extraordinarily deep piece of work.

Like any party... I remember nobody read it. Your leader hadn't read it.

I read it. You read it? So you read all the stuff about taxi drivers in

uniform and repainting the trains. And now you are all dismayed that it

has been taken away from you and you have to start again. Anyway, you

accept that if you have counsellors in this De mac `` councillors in

these places, that affects your politics. People are seeing us in

action on the ground domestic Lee. Despite Jeremy Vine's graph, it

wasn't another European election, it was domestic first past the post. ``

domestic Lee. All this really started to `` domestically. All this

changed last year. Suddenly people were able to see that UKIP really is

a viable vote in a domestic first past the post system. If you exclude

the postal votes. Yes. Let's go to Hull, where our correspondent will

tell us the story. Yes, we are awaiting the first formal

declarations of results here in Hull. Already, in the counting room

next door to where I am standing right now, there are plenty of

worried Labour faces. As Labour no they have lost a number of votes and

indeed a number of seats to UKIP tonight. `` Labour are aware. A

former member who has served as a councillor for the past 26 years has

conceded defeat to UKIP. And one senior Labour figure I spoke to a

few moments ago suggested that out the 21 being defended here tonight,

they can only guarantee that Labour would hold at least two of those

seats. It is tempting to think of Hull as a solid Labour city. In

terms of the seats held in Parliament, that has always been the

case. But you only have to rewind the clock back three years and the

Liberal Democrats were in control here. So if you look behind me, all

the blurb is plugging the fact that Hull has been named the UK's city of

culture. Tonight we could see a change to the political culture. We

will come back to you later on. Thank you for that. You can see on

the bottom of the screen, a seat held by the Conservative Party.

Let's go to the liberal Democrats. Putting the spotlight on them. There

are many councils which the Lib Dems are defending tonight. They have

suffered really badly in the last few years at the local level. These

are places where they will feel that they are strong. Kingston upon

Thames has a majority of two. We saw Alex at the count a little earlier

and you can see this as a fight between the two parties of

government. So really depends. If there is an anti`government vote,

who will fall furthest. A majority of two here. The Lib Dems have won

it since 2002. This is a key parliamentary strength of their as

in south`west London. We heard from the Environment Secretary. That

could slip from their grasp. Portsmouth a little bit safer. But

that could slip as well. The Lib Dems on 23. News from the chipmaker

that they will not be building ships in Portsmouth any more. The party

whip resigned he is now standing as an Independent. Will that affect

their fortunes? Sutton. An interesting one. It should be much

safer, when you look at the majority of 28 should be impossible for them

to lose. But in London, they are all out elections. So all the seats

could swap hands. And if they are really being punished tonight, and

remember this will be the first time Sutton votes since Nick Clegg came

PM, that could change hands. This seat cannot mathematically move away

from the Lib Dems. It is only being elected in birds. What we are

looking at once again, it is funny how our thoughts turn to UKIP. They

did very well in the by`election last you. We start to see an

incursion there. And if we do, what will that mean for the Lib Dem

mantra that they can hold on in places where they are already

strong? Thank you very much. Peter Hain Lee, political editor for the

BBC South, is in Portsmouth. You heard what Emily were saying about

Eastleigh and Portsmouth, do you want to comment on those in terms of

the Liberal Democrats and their strengths? I saw Nigel Farage

speaking in both Portsmouth and Eastleigh, I say Eastleigh is much

more organised for UKIP. They are both Lib Dem strongholds. Here at

Portsmouth, it feels like Portsmouth is making an impact already. No

results have been declared, but the Labour group leader says it is

causing mayhem with their usual predictions. There is a sort of side

story with Mike Hancock, the MP for Portsmouth South, who is also a

councillor suspended by the Lib Dems. It looks like UKIP might have

taken that seat here with a considerable vote. Partly against

Mike Hancock. Partly they are picking up protests all over the

city. One of the councillors described them as a bit of dad 's

Army. But they are making an impact here. Basingstoke is another place

where UKIP have been organised. Scandal around Maria Miller seems to

have brought out a lot of protest votes. And perhaps for people who

might not have voted otherwise. Portsmouth, what is the Liberal them

a cracked majority at the moment? Oh, they are very strong here. At

the moment on the council, it is more likely, if they have a very bad

night, not to go to any overall control. It may be that UKIP don't

make enough breakthroughs, even if they get a very strong vote. And it

certainly seems to have turned the mathematics of the usual arrangement

here completely upside down. We are waiting to see where those ballot

papers land. Our fascinating. We will come back to peter shortly.

What you want say about this? It has always been a battle between the Lib

Dems and the Conservatives in this area. There has been a lot of local

controversy over the exit leader who was jailed. I don't know if that

will play an integral part in that particular battle. It does set you

back a bit, I suppose. Not helpful. What we are looking at tonight in

particular are where we have held seats, where we won the councils. So

will to see how our strength holds up, we always stay where we work, we

win. And these are places where we have one for a long time.

Cheltenham, we will be looking where Martin Horlick is the MP. South

Lake, these are the kind of things we are looking to see where our

strengths are. We are going to lose the. We have about 750 seats. We

estimate, the predictions are that we will lose half of those seats. So

yes, we will lose seats. The ones you described at the old Liberal

Democrat, or liberal indeed, areas. While not looking back that far, but

those are the sort of seats, where we have MPs and where we work, we do

that. We are mounting in strength right across the country. We are a

long way from anything like UKIP Tomic we started in those places.

How much have you been damaged eye being in coalition for four years?

Oh, pretty much. I remember when we first went into coalition, some of

our European colleagues came over to tell us what it was like to be a

third party in the coalition. Second party, not the third party. Yes,

absolutely right. Maybe it just feels like it. The smaller party.

But if you look back at the choice the country gave us, which was

coalition with the Conservatives or a minority government that almost

certainly would have fallen, and you look back 2010 when the economy on

the brink and the markets were nervous, and staving off crisis was

the important thing. We did what was right for the country but it hasn't

been brilliant for us. They may end up with fewer councillors than they

had in the entire history of the Liberal Democrats. Not quite that

gloomy. We will pause from it. It is just after 12:30am. We now have a

full round`up of the news. Counting is under way across England in the

big test of public opinion before next year 's general election.

Results in Sunderland showed a big swing to UKIP, they have just made

the first game in Basildon. Counting in local contests in Northern

Ireland begins tomorrow. The results of the European elections will be

announced on Sunday after polling is finished across the EU. Our

political correspondent has the latest. Ballot boxes, voting slips,

strong coffees, and yes, eventually, no doubt, the old yawn

from those up all night. Election night is on, counting is under way.

Tonight is all about elections to 161 councils in England. In Northern

Ireland, counting starts late on Friday. It is early days but UKIP

seem to be doing well. It looks like the other parties are trying to work

out what on earth to do about what they see as the purple peril of

Nigel Farage's party. The messages from the party sent out tell their

own story. The Prime Minister was not sounding too excited. He sent

this e`mail to supporters. Ed Miliband was already trying to look

forward. One of the Liberal Democrat MPs told

the BBC the following: this is not simply a big protest,

but a consistent amount of the Purbeck who are moving to UKIP on a

consistent basis. `` the voting public. It tells the public that you

are in good company. Voting has been happening in the Netherlands as

well, people making their choices in the European Parliament elections,

plenty of other countries around the European Union have done their

voting in the coming days. `` will do their voting. There will not be

any results for who is going to Brussels until Sunday night.

You can find out more if you visit the website, including analysis and

all of tonight 's results as they come in, that is on the website. The

search for four British sailors missing in the mid`Atlantic for

almost a week could be called off in just over 24 hours. The west

coastguard said they will continue to search through tonight and

tomorrow but gave a cut`off point of midnight tomorrow local time if

there was no success. The families of the sailors and the British

Consulate have been informed. It is only after deepest consideration

that we will suspend active search efforts `` US coastguard. We have

had no sightings yet, and can conclude that none of the debris or

objects located during the search have correlated to the Cheeki

force across Thailand after the army force across Thailand after the army

staged a coup, the government has been dissolved and the constitution

suspended after months of political instability. There has been

widespread international condemnation, William Hague is

calling for a return to democracy and Washington says the action is

unjustifiable. The number of EU citizens moving to the UK increased

by 27% in 2013, the office for National Statistics figure is

estimated that net migration, that is between the numbers coming into

the UK and leaving, remains unchanged. The ONS says that work is

the main reason for those wanting to come to the UK. The controversy

surrounding cracking is likely to intensify with the publication later

today of a government report saying that a potentially huge supply of

untapped energy is located beneath the earth in southern England ``

fracking. Geological surveys will suggest that there are several

billion barrels of oil underneath Essex `` Sussex, Hampshire, and

Kent. Now, let's go back to Vote 2014.

Let's go back to the election Centre. Let's get some of the latest

results, we have not had many in but we have indications. Our first

scoreboard end. Labour are at the top, most prizes there, the place is

counted so far Labour heartlands. They have gained one councillor,

conservatives have lost eight. UKIP have gained two tonight. `` the

Conservative party. Let's go in and see those councils, you can see the

gains and losses. Let's have a look at what we have here. No gains and

no losses. Here are the ones we have had in so far. Sunderland, South

Tyneside and Broxbourne. They have stayed in their colours. Let's have

a look at Sunderland, it is interesting, I will update it to the

new councillor results, I will show it to you now as a percentage share

of the vote. It is a curious pattern. Labour have the lion

share, UKIP have 24% of the vote. They did not gain a council seat he

and Sunderland. They come in second place because of the distribution of

the vote, it is much harder for a smaller party to gain those seeds,

but it be will an extraordinary thing to look at. `` seats. UKIP are

up 24%, they came from a standing start here and have hit both Labour

and the Conservatives. Let's have a look at South Tyneside, I will

update it and see if there is a similar result. There is that area

again. In the north`east, look at the change overnight. It looks like

it is a fairly blanket result. If we go inside of South Tyneside, it

could have similar patterns and trends emerging to what we saw in

Sunderland. Thank you very much, if you get confused, remember, some of

these places like Sunderland, we are talking about one third of the seats

being voted on. If you see a number that seems far greater than the

number of seats we are talking about having been won or lost, that is

because two thirds do not have too go to the polls. You wanted to say

something, I think. I wanted to pick up on summing that Lynn said

earlier, part the debate around UKIP is there policies. `` something.

Let's be honest about this, they will do well, probably very well if

the next couple of days. As they come out of this, they will rightly

be more focused on policies. But, Lynn got something here, we have to

have this debate about our values, and connect emotionally on these

things. What you see UKIP and Farage doing is setting up different parts

of the community, against each other, blaming the other for the

problems we have as a country, when it is our responsibility to find

solutions to those things. We have to think about what sort of country

are we? Are we really a country that wants to turn in on itself when we

are facing more competition than ever before from an emerging market

economy, that wants to fight each other, rather than working out how

Britain can wind in the world? All we proud `` or, are we proud of our

country, and building a better Britain for our country? Going into

the election, not only will we have the debate around policy but it is

about the kind of country that we are. None of that answers the point

that she was making, but about the kind of people that you are and the

kind of person that Farage is. The point is... If you look at the kind

of person... Let's be honest, some of the things that we'd have seen

Farage doing and saying have been deeply offensive, I don't know

whether the guy is a racist or not, but I think some of the things he

has said are racist. There are two sides to people 's as nullity is,

there is one part that is people change and worried about the

future, but one that is hopeful about the future `` people 's

personalities. What something is being said about Eastern European by

the party members, it is not different about what people have

said about my father. Back in the 1960s. We had to have this debate

about values. I will come back to you in a second about this, I would

like to speak to one of those who wants to see... INAUDIBLE. There was

some muddle their! I am hoping to be joined by the Conservative MP for

north`east Somerset. ``there. You have heard already tonight, that as

a result of UKIP 's advance, the Conservatives have to do some kind

of deal. You are one of those conservatives who believe that?

Well, if you look at the results that are coming through, the small

conservative faction in British politics is picking up a large share

of votes. If they do not get those votes into one pot, then both sides

end up losing. What kind of deal... What do you have in mind as a deal

that could benefit the Conservatives? The first is to win

our friends in UKIP back, I was concerned about the poll that you

were quoting earlier. It said that fewer Conservative voters were

thinking of coming back from UKIP to the Conservatives than in previous

European elections. That is obviously a major issue for the

Conservative party, how we get people who have voted UKIP today to

vote for the Conservatives party in the general election next year,

because if we do not get them back, we will find that we will lose seats

that have a small seed Conservative majority. It is a challenge for the

party. It is an obvious challenge, if I could say so, what about the

other idea that you could have a pact or agreement, the sort of thing

that Douglas Carswell is thinking about, we will stay away if you are

treading on our toes... ? I think with the promise of the referendum,

the Conservative party and UKIP are moving in exactly the same

direction, that it is offering the British people a final decision on

whether we have continued membership of the European Union. That, surely,

pushes towards a coupon of some kind. Grant Shapps is listening, he

is all ears to this in the studio. In any one constituency, you would

either, in European, have a Conservative candidate committed to

a referendum, but if there was a UKIP candidate, Conservatives would

back off if they thought the opposition had a better chance of

winning? What happened in the coupon election between the Lloyd George

Liberals and the Conservatives was that the respective party leaders

said that they felt that in a particular seat, it was sufficiently

in support of the coalition between the two parties, and that was the

right person to support. That did not mean that all Conservatives, or

all liberals, have the same coupon. There is a good deal of flexibility

with how this could be done `` all Lib Dems. This teasing of Jacob! Let

me clear this up straightaway. We are not going to have any pacts it

cannot happen anyway. It cannot happen on a technical basis, we do

not allow joint candidates to stand. When no other party... No other

party would have joint candidates. He is talking about one party or the

other making an agreement. I understood the discussion but it

will not happen. That is all I am saying. Why not? We are the best

chance of offering an in and out referendum, the only chance of

adding an in and out referendum, with 326 members of parliament

needed to pass the act to get the referendum, currently UKIP have none

and we have 304, we are the best opportunity to get that. You would

do that even with the result that you let Labour in because you are

losing people. We would be going for an outright majority. Can Jacob come

back? Say another word in your chairman's year. Well, I think there

are many members of UKIP who are close to the Conservative Party. ``

your chairman is here. If we fight each other, we end up being very

destructive to the aims of what you might call small c conservatism. It

would potentially allow the Labour Party to win. We have to sort out in

the next year how we bring our votes together. Obviously, it would be

preferable if all members of UKIP and UKIP voters became Tories

overnight. That seems to me to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we

need to do something which welcomes them on board in a slightly

different way. Do you want to comment on this? Do you think what

he is saying has traction in the party? It may not have that much

traction in Parliament, but the difficulty for the chairman of the

Conservative Party, is that it will have an enormous amount of traction

amongst Conservative activists. They'll sit back, saying these are

our people. We remember and know these people. They used to be

Conservatives themselves, and they don't want to fight them. They would

have discovered that they agree on a great deal. So many ordinary

Conservatives will be wondering why they can't get together with these

guys in order to take on the Labour Party. That is the danger I think,

for the Tory leadership, because there are an activists say they are

not taking them in the direction they want to go. If you had your

way, the Conservatives would run a candidate regardless. They would do

exactly what Jacob was trying to avoid, which was splitting the vote.

We are rather jumping ahead to Sunday night's debate. No party has

ever delivered as much as this party has on Europe. The coalition has got

us out of an ?8 billion bailout which would have cost us a fortune.

Saving $8.2 ?8.2 billion, we have vetoed the European Treaty, passed

the law that no powers can go without referendum. So if they want

a renegotiation with Europe, the only way to get there is to vote

Conservative. There is no other mathematical equation. The striking

thing is that all these things, the speech on Europe which the Prime

Minister gave, the promise of a referendum, apparently, early days

and all that. Apparently it made no difference in terms of persuading

UKIP voters to switch. Have you been hearing all this? Certainly have.

What do you make of this generous offer to have a packed with UKIP?

Would UKIP Laikert? `` pact. I am sorry, but it is all too late. ``

like it. We were seen as just an irritant to the Conservatives for

some years, they now discover we represent an increasing percentage

of their core vote which they have taken for granted for many years. So

they are calling us names and inventing ludicrous manifestoes and

describing them to us. The Conservatives have now suddenly

decided that we are just naughty ex` Conservatives which have to sit on

the naughty step for a bit. This is ridiculous. We have been going for

20 years and have steady progress and are now in a position where, as

you can see from the early results tonight and what has been happening

over the past 12 months, UKIP is really resonating with the voting

public in this country. It is not an accident. We have been telling it

like it is and not playing these silly games about who is going to do

pacts with her. We are here to stay and you have to get used to it. If

you found that the result of your state was to split the small c

conservative vote and let Labour in, that would be something you could

live with? We are an independent political party with our own Stanz

and manifesto which we are working on. It has not been incidentally

just invented. `` our own stance. That small c conservatism

numbers of people who vote for us now who are lifelong Labour voters,

who would never dream of voting Conservative. So we are not here

just to be bought and sold. We represent an increasing number of

people in this country. Jacob, listing to all that, it sounds as

though your idea has fallen rather stony ground. Well, if you

remember what was being said about joint action before the last

election, between the Conservatives and the lead dams, it is one of the

realities of politics that nobody announces they want to do a deal

until they announce the deal has been done. It is like the government

and the Bank of England. So I don't lose hope that the Conservative

Party and UKIP can come together to ensure that what we all want is

achieved. Obviously that is best achieved in a first past the post

system if we are not opposing each other. It sounds as though it will

be fisticuffs between you. Well, we did suggest that we should love bomb

UKIP. I much prefer that as they are... Well you love bombed the

Liberal Democrats and you pretty much decimated them. Excuse me, we

may be down, but we are not out. We are getting a kicking for being in

the coalition right now. And despite being love bombed. But what I wanted

to say is that this whole mess of an in and out referendum is that the

Conservative Party tried to appease the agenda that was put out. Because

of UKIP's popularity, in terms of an in and out referendum. They forgot

that the coalition actually legislated in the last term for a

referendum if power has changed. We abandoned that and went after UKIP.

That is betwixt and between. Let me come in. We are in danger of

focusing on Europe rather than the local elections. But it is worth

saying that the Conservative Party's view on Europe, our approach

to the referendum is mainstream British views on Europe. Most people

thought we went into a common market, we have gone into much more.

Most people want a renegotiation and a referendum. It is unfair to the

two major parties in Westminster. The only way to get it will be a

conservative vote. It is a fantasy position, because it is basically

based on a renegotiation which the Conservative Party does not want to

consider. And I didn't interrupt you... Let me finish my sentence. I

don't know what the outcome will be if they can secure it. And they

think they will do it in a French residential year. Can I just say one

thing... Actually, I am going to help you out here. Where he is

wrong, and to some extent I think the UKIP chair is right, is that he

is presupposing that the main reason that people are going to vote for

UKIP is purely the EU. Now Lynn is right on that. You can't out UKIP

UKIP. No matter how you try it, it doesn't work. People are voting for

a range of different reasons. As I said, what will not be sustainable

is to do what the UKIP chair has just done and basically said well,

anything that our leader or our Deputy Leader comes out with should

be disregarded in respect to policy. Because whatever people may feel,

and obviously UKIP will do very well over the next few days, they are

going to want to know, particularly after the European election, what

are your policies? On that note, let's have a look at policy with

Jeremy. But first, a bit of news. Yes, the Tory MP in Swindon has just

tweeted that they have gained a seat. The Tories are short I won in

that council. It sounds like, depending on what the other results

do, the Tories may gain control of Swindon. It is one of the seats we

will look at because of their Parliamentary significance. Two

Parliamentary MPs. Small majorities for a general election, and

therefore, no doubt conservative H Q will be telling us Labour is not

doing well enough. That two results from Hull, very similar to

Sunderland. UKIP winning 28% of the vote in both cases. It looks as

though one of the principal consequences of today's voting, or

should say yesterday was making voting, as it is nearly 1am.

Yesterday's voting is this very strong push by UKIP. We will have

much more of that later on. Let us go to Jeremy to talk about the

issues. People here were talking about whether the issue is getting

out of Europe or not and how people are voting. Yes, we have mentioned a

lot about Europe in your discussion. Come with me into our virtual

parliament, the Central lobby in Westminster. We will look beyond the

European issues at some of the other things which are on voters minds.

Let's look at the polls. First of all, economic confidence. Usually,

when you talk about voting intentions, it is all lasered in on

the economy. It is the economy, stupid, as they always say. So going

back two years, that I see the ratings. On economic confidence. Two

questions were asked Tom are you feeling good about the UK's

prospects, and are you feeling good about your own? At the beginning of

the graph, we are still in the backwash of the recession. As the

graph progresses, it you see the household Hosp Becks improved.

People generally thinking it is not reaching me, this recovery. `` the

household prospects. You see improved personal prospect a little,

sense the UK is coming out of the financial crisis. Talking about

Europe, but as we know, the economy is very important in terms of voting

intentions. That is one of the key graphs as we go into one of this

year long run`up 's to the general election. Looking at this. This asks

how the coalition is managing the economy. Two years ago they were

seen as managing it badly, well outnumbering those who bought they

were managing it well. A lot of people thinking they had not got the

right answers at all. But watch the progression as gradually you see

growth coming back. Unemployment comes down a little and the people

who say it at the coalition doing badly in managing the economy are

becoming less sure of themselves. That line goes down. More and more

people say the economy is being managed well by the government.

Again, that economic graph is absolutely crucial to the foundation

of voter intentions. So look at that, very dramatic. That is what

happens when the economy recovers. But something else happens as well.

Have a look at our next graph and I will show you what it is. Gradually,

as the economy stabilises, the People's perceptions of which are

the important issues changes. So go back to May 2010, and the

coalition's win in the election. Remember the terrible state. Just

coming off the financial crisis. The overwhelming majority of people say

the economy is the number one issue. Immigration and the NHS down there.

As the economy settles down and things look right for more people,

you see this line gradually, as fewer people are concerned about the

economy, fewer people put it is number one. If you go back to the

boom years of the 2000 is, the economy was way down the list of

people's concerns. You can see in the present, immigration is touching

the economy, vying with it for first place. `` the 2000s. That is where

UKIP are getting many of their votes. Immigration, traditionally

good for Labour. In first base, still the economy is the key issue.

At the economy has improved, voters have set it to one side to one

extent and started looking at other things. So some other issues that we

will be looking at, David. Back to you. Are very fascinating story

coming out of Portsmouth. It applies to what we were saying here. Tell us

the story. We were talking to the group leader of the Conservatives

and there is a charge the Lib Dems could be pushed into control. She

said that she would work with Labour Party and then she said that if UKIP

gets seats, she would want to offer them something to get them on board.

Possibly a place in the Cabinet of the Portsmouth City Council. If the

Labour Party and Conservatives and UKIP together get rid of the Lib

Dems, she said it is something they will work towards. I can't spoken

with other conservatives who have said that she has to get that past

more people within the party. She is certainly keen that if there is a

chance of removing the Lib Dems, UKIP could be an ally. She has the

instinct to use UKIP against the Labour Party and the Lib Dems in

this case. Would you approve of that? Do you want to get on the

phone and say, don't you dare. On a local basis it has been up to the

parties and councils locally to decide who nationally, `` who to

work with. We won't put limitations on working with other parties. It is

still an interesting development. Results are coming in from London.

The whole borough in each case is being elected. Let's go to various

places in London and see what the story is. Sonia Jester is our

correspondent in Hammersmith, west London, conservatively held. What is

the story? It is a battle between the Labour Party and the Tories.

Hammersmith and Fulham are controlled by the Conservatives. It

has been since 2006. Before that, this was the Labour Party,

working`class borough. What we have seen is huge change. Different types

of people moving into the borough, wealthy, traditional Tory voters

moving into the leafy south of the borough, living out of places like

Kensington and Chelsea as house prices rise. The question is, will

be Conservatives consolidate their control? Perhaps, driven by high

house prices and lower council tax. Or, will Labour regain control?

White we go to Brent. Solidly labour. Sarah Teva, the LibDem MP

stands down. How will this affect Brent? That is a big factor in these

local elections. Labour made big gains in 2010 and took seats from

the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. On the same day, they lost the

parliamentary seat of Brand, central to the LibDem Sarah Teva who as we

know it will stand down in next year's general election. There are a

lot of wafer thin majority is here in Brent, so Labour hope they will

be able to hold onto their 40 out of 63 councillors. They also want to

see some gains. Speaking with candidates, the Labour group leader

said that maybe two or three new labour councillors elected would

make them very happy. That's because they want to build up the base of

support ahead of next year 's general election to help them to

victory to win back the seat from the LibDem. This is the Civic Centre

and we are in the shadow of Wembley stadium over my shoulder. No famous

footballers have been sniffing around. Thank you. We will come back

as you get some results in. We are joined by Linda Jack, who is in

power at Westminster studio. `` our. She is in the European elections and

chairs the liberal left. What is happening to the Lib Dems insofar as

you have been able to discern tonight

people expect. The lack of trust, we have lost because of the coalition

frankly, and that is where we need to think about where to go next in

terms of strategy. We need to rebuild confidence in the party. How

do you do that? It is said that you saved the country by going into a

coalition. That is an area where we disagree.

our values. If we had stuck to the coalition agreement it mightn't have

been bad, but we didn't. What will you do now? We don't need to lose

our leader. The leader just needs to take a different direction. Everyone

is talking about when we come out and we have been speaking about this

since going into a coalition. I can't see we can stay in a coalition

until the moment of the next election and have that

differentiation that we so desperately need, showing that we

are not Tories. What will you do? Leave tomorrow or next week? I would

have left a long time ago. It would need to be planned, obviously, but

the sooner we can get out the better, as far as I am concerned.

Won't you look feeble, led by Nick Clegg in the Rose garden, we can

work together and save the country, and then you up sticks after a year

or two and leave. It isn't. It is now four years. You said you would

have left long ago. I wouldn't have gone into a coalition in the first

place. The issue is for me, values. I applaud some of the work of the

ministers, on issues such as FGM and equal marriage. Norman Lamb has done

a fantastic job in health. What I worry about is that we have gone

along with a lot of things we didn't need to. The reorganisation of the

NHS and the bedroom tax. That flies in the face of what we say we are at

a party and that is why it is confusing for people. What do you

stand for? What will happen if Nick Clegg doesn't pull out. Andy, you go

into the next election as a coalition until election day comes

along? What will happen to the Lib Dems? We are a resilient party and

we will still be here. I think we will be badly damaged. Do you have

any reassurances to offer? I do. I am an optimist. I love Linda. That's

not relevant. We are a party that believes in coalition government. I

think it is a better form of government. I think single

government elected by 35% of the country is terrible. You can make

the law because, I say so. It isn't forged in steel. There is nothing in

common between ourselves and the Conservatives. So, the fight to get

a policy and the balance between a stronger economy and a fairer

society is what the Lib Dems are into. We have proved the point. Just

a minute. I am fed up with the Conservatives getting the credit for

the turning around of the economy when the Lib Dems have just as much

involvement. We have done a lot of good things in government and you

don't go into politics not to go into coalition if you are a party

that believes in coalition and where the country has delivered the party

with the most seats at the most votes as the first people you speak

to and the alternative, which, Linda, you would have preferred, the

Labour Party, didn't have enough votes. Linda is focusing on what you

have done in government. That process of going into government was

the problem. It led to you breaking promises. It wasn't only tuition

fees, which many focused on. The central economic plan you signed up

to, the deficit reduction plan, was different from that which you can

then on. The problem Nick Clegg has is that he changed his mind of the

need for deficit reduction `` campaigned on. His documentary

exposed this. It was several weeks before the general election, but he

didn't tell anyone. 16,000 voted Lib Dems in my constituency and, had

they known that, thousands of people would have made a different

decision. That is the problem. It wasn't based on what Nick was

thinking. It was based on the coalition agreement. He spoke of it

in his documentary . The interesting thing we have

heard from the LibDem Linda is that many Lib Dems think they are staring

at the sky, looking at the blade of the guillotine coming down rapidly,

and they are surprised why the leadership don't take their head off

the block by leaving the coalition. Linda needs to recognise that this

was recognised by 2500 Lib Dems at the conference. I want to bring in

John Curtis so we can direct our attention to the Labour Party. What

is the position of the Labour Party? We have heard about the woes of the

coalition partners. This isn't proving to be a good night for the

Labour Party. We were told early on we would see signs of labour

progress. If you look at the wards in which Labour fought, back in

2010, they are down slightly on average. In comparison with 2012,

the Labour Party's vote is so far down by as much as 15 points. That

is competitive 2012. While it might be that UKIP are causing

Conservative trouble, the truth is that it isn't looking good for the

Labour Party. We have seen the example of Swindon, where the

Conservative have made again and if that is typical, one of the councils

that we confidently expected on the basis of a modest Labour Party

leading the polls, but the Tories would lose, that target might

missed. Explained the significance of 2012 as opposed to 2010. The last

time the councils at elections was two years ago. Any opposition would

want to be able to demonstrate that a year from a general election, it

is still commanding the votes of the public as successfully as it were in

the mid`term of the Parliament. Truthfully, it is clear the Labour

Party isn't winning votes in these elections on anything like the scale

it did in 2012. Therefore, it raises questions, which have been there

throughout the Parliament about the degree to which those who say they

will vote for the Labour Party aren't committed enough to the party

that they will see it through to 2015. On the basis of tonight, it

looks as though a significant portion of people who are willing to

vote for Labour party two years ago have withdraw their support. It is

difficult to say who is suffering from the UKIP rise. Whether or not

the Conservatives are suffering more than the Labour Party it is too

difficult to tell. There was too much of a simplistic assumption that

all people who voted for UKIP have come from the Tories. It isn't the

case. According to the polls, 30 `40% of current UKIP supporters are

ex` Conservatives. It is true that Conservatives are more likely to go

to UKIP than labour voters, but according to the polls, there is a

proportion of labour voters, those who voted in 2010, who now back

UKIP. Sweden has been held by the Conservatives. Do you accept what

John Curtis has said. You can talk to him. You would accept we haven't

got that many results. We have many more to come. We have got to be

sorted from Birmingham. You accept we have a lot of votes to go. Would

I deny that UKIP is impacting us? I of course I won't deny they are. ``

of course. It is impacting everyone. The other thing I would be

interested to get your take on is, if you look at London for example,

we had a different turnout from 2010, which impacted the vote. What

is your reading of the impact of having the Europeans elections as

the same date `` on the same day as the locals, which gives a huge

amount of media coverage and exposure to UKIP which they didn't

previously have. If you take the 2004 and the 2009 elections which

were the same day there is no doubt that holding the elections on the

same enabled UKIP to do better than they otherwise would have done.

Before last year, those were the best UKIP performances. Bear in mind

that what we have seen so far, for example in Basildon, where they did

well last year, getting a third of the vote, UKIP advancing even

further. Don't underestimate the scale of their advance. I don't

think anyone will underestimate how well they will do. They will

obviously do very well. The question is what it means for the general

election. It poses a challenge for all the parties. (CROSSTALK). Let's

hear from Graham Stringer, who joins us from Salford. Labour MP in

Manchester. I hope you were able to hear what John Curtis was saying

about the slippage in the support for the Labour Party from 2012. He

said this would be worrying for the Labour Party. Are you worried? Yes.

I have been out in Manchester and Salford. Two things appear to be

happening. The antilabour vote has consolidated around UKIP. But they

are also taking the vote. That is worrying. Ed Miliband has just said

that the general election campaign starts here. I am afraid, really,

that the general election campaign started at the start of this

campaign and we have not done as well as we should have done. What is

it that you fault in the presentation? Is it your party

leader or is it something else? It is the policies. The elections are

going against the background of the European elections. We do not trust

you to vote in a referendum where 80% of the electorate want one. The

campaign itself has not been professional. Centrepiece of our

campaign has been the cost of living. And yet, Ed Miliband did not

know his own cost of living. He was spending on shopping. People around

him should have said when David Cameron was being attacked as a posh

boy and not knowing the price of milk that we should not fall into

that trap. That sort of thing is unprofessional. Is that

unprofessional for Ed Miliband organising the campaign? I think the

organisation of the campaign, people you do not see in the office, the

people have not performed as well as they should have. You would like to

see Labour come out for a referendum? Absolutely. It is a real

trust issue. People do not knock on doors. It is not the first thing on

their minds. But for those people watching politics and thinking about

it, the fact that we will not give them a referendum becomes another

trust issue, a real reason why people are turned off by the current

political parties. When the next reason is given for not hitting a

referendum is that we have other things to do in government, it looks

as though we want to do things that we do not want the electorate to

give us the power to do. Would you like to see a referendum willy`nilly

or in conservative times if you are in a position to offer it. Would you

like to say like UKIP, we would like to give you a referendum? I think

the rest is a bit of an illusion. We are not going to renegotiate all of

the treaties. David Cameron is trying to pull the same kind that

they did in 1975. We need to give people a choice on whether we stay

in the European Union come out. A lot of powers have been transferred

to Brussels. The British people have not had a say in that.

to Brussels. The British people have not had a say in Would that

transform Labour back's fortunes. I do not think it would. I respect

Graham, but I disagree with him. I have been in various different

locations all over the country. I was in Norwich just this week.

Nobody based the issue of a referendum with me. They talked

about prospects for their children, whether they would go on and do

better than their parents. Just a moment. I disagree with him. It is

not that disagree with him, you do secreting with the voters that he

speaks too. `` are disagreeing. People are not coming to the

doorstep and asking questions straight off. But when you talk to

them for a bit longer, particularly people more interested and thinking

deeply about where they vote, it does become an issue of trust. That

is why people are disillusioned with politics. People are concerned, the

biggest concern is about immigration and jobs and education. Those are

the biggest concerns. We have not been very clear in presentation of

some of our policies. We keep leaving the field of battle. We used

to be excellent at rebuttal. But now we often do not bother at all. That

sounds pretty grizzly. I do not agree with that. Our European policy

when we unveiled in February, the idea that there was not rebuttal and

support around the announcement of the policy, which was not

necessarily a populist desertion, is not right. If you go back before

then to when the energy price freeze was announced, we were attacked by

people on the energy industry. . Do not think it is that you say we did

not follow through. Have a look at what Jeremy can tell you about Ed

Miliband's popularity. Just some grass for you. Let us have a look at

some measures of how the leaders are doing. That was the conversation we

are having in the studio. We have general satisfaction of leaders.

This is about everyone. Much of it must `` a muchness. Nigel Farage is

coming on top. You will see that they group quite closely. This is

when you ask everybody who is doing best. Nigel Farage is doing very

well. David Cameron is second place and Ed Miliband and click lower

down. `` Nick Clegg. You would tend to see quite a few people not sure

who they are satisfied with. We will change the question. Now you see

something more interesting. We will change to satisfaction among your

own supporters. We are looking at whether labour supporters think Ed

Miliband is doing well, Conservative supporters with David Cameron and

some `` so on. This is just back a year. Nigel Farage is through the

roof. David Cameron is doing very well as well. Quite a drop of 40 get

to Ed Miliband. `` before. Then you see Ed Miliband falling behind Nick

Clegg. They are struggling in this craft. At some point Nick `` Nigel

Farage is up to 94%. On to the end of the craft. Where are we? ``

graph. As I said, a big drop before you get to Nick Clegg and Ed

Miliband. They are disappointing a lot of their own supporters. Is that

going to be fatal to Ed Miliband? Let us look at ratings for leaders

when you out from an election. Here we have Tony Blair one year before

he won in 1997. 56%. That was his satisfaction rating overall. William

Hague before the 2001 election, 18%, did not become Prime Minister. 31%

for Howard, Michael Howard. Not become Michael Howard, the Prime

Minister. Where is Ed Miliband. Have a look. 24%. If you judge it by

this, that is a troubling figure. Is there anything we can say in some

way that ameliorate this? Have a look at this for just a moment. We

will complete the same question slightly rephrased. Here are the two

columns. Ed Miliband is struggling. But when that very same question was

asked in 1979, the two people it is being asked about work James

Callaghan and the Leader of the Opposition and look what happened.

It is possible to be lagging in those personal ratings and go on and

become Prime Minister. At the moment Ed Miliband's ratings are so low in

some of these scores that it is definitely it cause for concern. I

will come back to you for a moment. You seem to be saying and those

figures seem to endorse it that somehow Ed Miliband is it out of

touch. I am saying, I do not know whether you know how much milk

costs, but in the middle of a campaign if that is a central issue

then you should find out about it. That is a professional mistake. You

can't argue with the figures that you have just presented. The Labour

Party should try and present that there is a problem and deal with the

problem by having a stronger campaign to rally the leader. To

protect him from the people? To share the burden. That is how I

would put it. To be clear on the message. How can they make somebody

who is as he is and comes from the background that he does, Hamstead in

north London and an intellectual, how can they turn him into the kind

of person that the people you meet on the doorstep will go for. I do

not think you can. The Conservative party did not turn to Margaret

Thatcher into the person she was. To do some of the heavy lifting in the

campaign, that is what they need to do. Ed Miliband has not have an

immediate appeal to the electorate. The Labour Party has to work harder

on getting its policies across to the people. You are pretty well

formed. You are not going to change who you. We have to approach it in a

way. We will go to our political editor in Swindon. The story in

Swindon seems to suggest labour is having some difficulty? If this is

the case, Labour have some soul`searching to do. In Swindon

they have gone backwards. In 2010, two Labour MPs lost their seats. The

Conservatives got both parliamentary seats. They want to win these seats

back. Tonight they lost to the Tories. The Conservatives started

the evening with a one seat majority. It is all finished. People

are packing up and about to go home. The Conservatives have a majority of

three. One of the really interesting point is, who are they losing to? A

lot of people are saying that Labour lost out to UKIP. They did not come

close to anywhere. But very much the thought is that UKIP have hoovered

up a of disgruntled Labour voters. They have decided to vote for UKIP

instead. What was the actual outcome in Swindon? The Conservatives now

have 36 out of 57. The Liberal Democrats were very close to one

seat, but ended up with Labour. It is the Conservatives going forwards,

Labour backwards. Do you have that real problem in the south? Swindon

was not one of the big names that I was aware we were targeting. Who

were you targeting? The ones I will be looking at, Cambridge,

Redbridge, those are the type of places. Why did Ed Miliband go to

Swindon? I do not know. I will be completely honest with you, I have

no idea. Was it a mistake to go to Swindon? I don't. You have been

doing a good job of underplaying the expectations of Labour, the suppose

it could government in waiting. That is their role. (CROSSTALK) you

started off by saying 150 games. The experts say you should make 500. ``

gains. The idea that Swindon wasn't on your target, of course it was. We

have increased the majority. What should be 80 key target for you

before a general election. `` should be our key target. Hang on. You can

worry about your situation. We will worry about us. Let's not forget,

the Conservative party haven't won a majority since 1992. Will they look

closer to getting a majority? On the basis of what we have heard, they

both have reason to be miserable. UKIP have gained a seat from the

Tories in Southend. The Labour deputy leader of robber Rome has,

this is not confirmed, lost his seat to UKIP `` rather rum. Both are

losing seats to UKIP `` Rotherham. White we are joined from Ed Davey,

the energy minister in the coalition. What is your reading of

what is happening in Kingston? Will the Lib Dems hold onto it? We

started off as a marginal borough with a two seat majority and lots of

marginal wards. That is being played out and I think there will be a

handful of wards that decide this election. And, a handful of votes,

it could be just a few handful across the borough who decide the

control of the council. No indication on how it has gone from

your people on the ground? It is too early to call. It has been a

hardfought campaign. There have been a lot of local issues. For example,

a regeneration of a high street was controversial. The Conservative

mayor of London was paying for it by the LibDem council got the blame.

There have been local issues around crime that have been raised by the

Conservative colleagues of ours. We are the safest borrower in London.

We have the lowest level of crime `` borough. There have been a lot of

local issues and we will have to see how the votes and up landing. No

reflection on the coalition, then ? If you look at our leaflets, the

Labour Party leaflets, it has been focused on the issues in the Royal

Borough of Kingston. E.g., the issue around primary schools. The

Coalition came up on the doorstep. What do people say to you and your

workers about the coalition? That they don't like the coalition? It

was a mixture. Some love and some hate, which isn't surprising. It

isn't dissimilar on the streets in Kingston. If you lose Kingston, will

it be because of the coalition? Does it mean that your seat might be in

danger? That's not what the election is fought on. It's not fought on the

national issues. I can't recall a leaflet with national issues on it.

It's all about coal worth Greenway, the rejuvenation I spoke about,

local crime, local schools and so on, local democracy. It doesn't fit

with the script of national commentators, that it has been an

exercise in healthy democracy. It was you, not me, who said the

coalition came up on the doorstep all the time. Green I didn't. I said

it did come up. Local issues came up a lot more. If Kingston were to go

LibDem, sorry, Conservative I mean, would you be thinking, can I hold

this seat at the general election? I have never been complacent about my

seat. I won by majority of 56 vote in 1997. I have always assumed that

is my majority. If you do that, you will always work hard for local

residents as you should do. I hold to a advice surgeries most weeks to

ensure people can see me face`to`face and talk to me about

their opinions and their problems. I have always wanted to ensure I am

therefore people. `` there for people. I won't be complacent. Is

there anything you and your party can do between now and next May, to

improve the LibDem chances? We've got to find a voice to get over the

things we have been achieving in government. We are proud we have

taken several minion of the low paid out of income taxed. We delivered on

a promise on increasing the state pension faster than before ``

several million. All of the things we have campaigned for and

delivered, free school meals for infants. Not a lot of people have

heard of them. That is one thing I found when speaking with people by

doorstep. People haven't heard enough of the good and popular

things the Lib Dems have achieved. We need to get that over more loudly

and more clearly. Before we go to the news, Nick has got some more

results. We are getting more news of UKIP gains, two in Basildon, one in

Peter Brock, three in Basildon, Essex it seems is a UKIP man. I

should remind you that we are only going to get half of these 4000 also

results in today. They are interesting `` or so. We will be

back here from midday tomorrow with the final third or half, whatever it

is. For the moment, let's go to the news because it is just past half

past one in the morning. Counting is under way in the local

elections held across England and Northern Ireland. Millions around

the UK have voted in elections for the European Parliament. The success

of the UKIP party has had an impact on the major parties. The

Conservative party chairman rejects calls for a pact with UKIP and the

leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, predicts his party will cause an

earthquake politically. Chris Mason has more.

The race is on. Sunderland prides itself on the speed of its election

counting. If that means letting it across the count centre with a

ballot box, so be it. Elections took place in 161 councils in England and

some are counting right now in the dead of night. Some will start after

a few hours of sleep. UKIP appear to be doing well. It looks as though

these results will leave the other parties to work out what to do about

what they see as the purple peril of the UKIP party. This isn't a

protest. It is a consistent amount of the public voting for UKIP

consistently. It tells the public that if you vote UKIP, you are

amassing good company. In many respects, this isn't about UKIP as

about dissatisfaction with the economy and with politics. We need

to ensure we are delivering a long`term plan and that we are

solving the country's blondes. You don't do that through easy