29/08/2014 World Business Report


29/08/2014

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Those are the latest headlines from BBC World News. Now for the latest

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financial news with Alice Baxter and World Business Report. Malaysia

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Airlines set to announce a major shake`up as it struggles for

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survival. As many as 6000 jobs could go. Plus ` QE or not QE? The spectre

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of deflation stalks the Eurozone ` will it mean more stimulus measures

:00:34.:00:36.

from the European Central Bank? Welcome to World Business Report.

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I'm Alice Baxter. In a moment, a raft of disappointing data from

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Japan casts doubt on the country's economic recovery. But first: We are

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awaiting news this Friday of a major shake`up at Malaysia Airlines. The

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carrier has been struggling financially for some time amid

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fierce competition. But this year of course it has been hit by twin

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disasters ` the disappearance of flight MH370 over the Indian Ocean,

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and the shooting down of flight MH17 over Ukraine. Losses are mounting,

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and the company has warned of more to come. Since the second tragedy

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bookings have plunged by a third, pushing the company to the brink of

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collapse. So what are we expecting it to do? Malaysia Airlines employs

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almost 20,000 staff. At least a quarter of those, as many as 6000,

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could lose their jobs. Some international routes could be

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abandoned, and new management brought in. Ashleigh Nghiem reports

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from Singapore. Prayers for the victims of the two extraordinary

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aviation disasters that happened to one airline. Like his company,

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Malaysia Airlines Chief Executive Ahmad Jauhari Yahya is under

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enormous pressure. The losses announced this week underline the

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challenge the airline must meet. Mr Yahya says after MH370 disappeared,

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the airline tried to rebuild but tragically, just as we were

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beginning to see signs of recovery in all regions, we were dealt a blow

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with MH17. The full financial impact of the tragedies will be seen in the

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next set of results. They will need some fresh energy to come in and to

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make some very tough decisions that will probably be unpopular at a

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political level but they are things they will need to do in order for

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the airline to survive. That serious work is now the task of the state

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investment fund, Khazanah, which plans to take ownership of the

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company and implement a radical restructure. For staff, it is an

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anxious wait. TRANSLATION: I am anxious but I hope for success. The

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other carrier has lost two passenger planes in the space of less than six

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months. For the airline, fixing the finances is just beginning. The

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restructure will only go some way towards gaining the confidence of

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passengers. Now the queues at this check`in counter aren't exactly

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long. And some planes are flying with rows of empty seats. But the

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passengers aren't the only ones who are spooked. Nearly 200 cabin crew

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have resigned in the past six months, much more than normal

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turnover. So the real challenge for Malaysia Airlines and its owners

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will be to get people flying again. From Malaysia to Europe now, and

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growing concerns about the state of the region's economy. Later today we

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get inflation data for the 18 countries that use the euro

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currency. It is expected to show the area slipping further towards

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deflation, or falling prices. That can lead to the sort of stagnation

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Japan experienced for more than a decade, as people put off buying

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things because they got cheaper every month. Let's take a quick look

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at the numbers. The European Central Bank's target for healthy inflation

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is around 2% a year. It sees anything below 1% as the danger

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zone. In July the annual rate dropped to just 0.4%. Figures for

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August could show a further fall, to 0.3%. That would put pressure on the

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ECB to do more to stimulate the economy when it meets next week.

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Christian Schulz of Berenberg Bank is here. We were just talking

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through some of the numbers. What are you expecting to come out later

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today? Will we see the eurozone slipping further into this danger

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zone? Whether it does this time or maybe a month later doesn't really

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matter. Today, actually, the risk or chance is that the inflation figure

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might be slightly as or higher, if you like, than what markets expect.

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We have already had German inflation yesterday that was stable, with some

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slight tendency of actually inching up a little bit on temporary

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factors. The Spanish inflation declined less than expected. So

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there is a chance that the days are today may not be as headline making

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or bad as expected. What if it doesn't this time, the crisis in the

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Ukraine, the slowdown in the European economy, I think will

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provoke further declines in inflation `` data. So we might inch

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further towards deflation. What would you say the underlying factors

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are, driving this downward movement we are seeing in terms of inflation,

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across the eurozone? Well I think one important thing to note is that

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this is different to 2012, when we were at the heyday of the eurozone

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crisis. We had bond market pensions, the risk that countries would have

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to default, leave the eurozone. And particularly countries like Spain,

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Portugal, Greece, Ireland, which were in crisis. They were the ones

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driving the economic decline. This time it is entirely different set

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up. This time it is Germany, the core of the eurozone, which has

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slowed significantly. So this has nothing to do with the good old Euro

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crisis. It comes from abroad, it comes from Ukraine. It hits the

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country most exposed to Russia and Ukraine, and that is Germany via

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trade, energy links. Confidence is plunging. So the chorus affected

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this time, which makes it easier, actually, for the ECB to stimulate

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the economy, because it was the Germans who were so far against the

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ECB doing more. So what happens next? What will be at ECB decide

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when they meet on September four for their next policy meeting? Today's

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figure really matters. If it is worse than expected it is possible

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ECB will take immediate action. Maybe not outright QE like the

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Americans did, but a smaller programme might be announced next

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week. If the figures today do not disappoint or are better than

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expected then they have a bit more time left for discussions. But there

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will be all sorts of warnings next week about the ECB doing more

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signalling to market that they are ready to fight this. OK, so we are

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still in that wait and see mode. All eyes on the ECB. We mentioned

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Japan's battle to escape the spiral of deflation. Some disappointing

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news this morning on that economy. Rico Hizon is following this story

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for us in Singapore. What do you have on this? Well, a lot of numbers

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which came out from Japan today, and mostly they are disappointing

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economic numbers. If household spending `` you have household

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spending falling by almost 6%. Inflation is still well below that

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2% inflation target of the government at 1.3%. Household

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spending fell as the higher sales tax, which was raised on April the

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1st from five to 8%, and the bad weather conditions, kept consumers

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at home instead of going out to shop. As for factory output, week

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exports left companies with a huge pile of infantry, forcing them

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continue cutting back on production `` inventories. Overall the vital

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signs remain weak for the Japanese economy, signalling continuing

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weakness in the world's third`largest economy. And extra

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stimulus spending is recommended to counter the effect of the tax hikes.

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They want the government to push ahead with structural reforms to

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help industries regain their competitiveness and counter the

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effect of the rapid ageing and shrinking of the population. Not

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great news coming out of Japan. Thank you for keeping us across

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those numbers. In other news: Google says it is developing airborne

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drones capable of flying on their own and delivering everything from

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candy to medicine. The so called "Project Wing" is the latest move by

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the web giant to expand its reach into the real world, with the likes

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of self`driving cars and solar`powered balloons. Rival Amazon

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announced its own plans last year for a delivery drone service called

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"Prime Air." Europe's Energy Commissioner is in Moscow this

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Friday for talks over securing gas supplies this winter. About a third

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of Europe's gas for industry and domestic heating comes from Russia,

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some of it via Ukraine. On Wednesday Ukraine warned Europe that Russia

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could cut off gas to the continent this winter, but Moscow said the

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supplies would continue regardless of the political situation. Budget

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airline Germanwings has cancelled 116 flights planned for Friday

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morning, equivalent to 70% of its flights, because of a six`hour

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strike by pilots. They are in dispute with parent company

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Lufthansa over plans to end an early retirement scheme. About 15,000

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passengers, many of whom are travelling at the end of the summer

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holiday period, will be affected. Asian shares slumped in early

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trading on Friday, after flaring Ukraine tensions ruined investors'

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appetite for risk and bolstered the safe`haven yen.

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appetite for risk and bolstered the safe`haven We will of course keep a

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close eye on those throughout the session, and if you would like to

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get in touch with me or any of the team I am on Twitter. We always love

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to hear from you. Stay with us at UBC World News. I will be back in

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just a moment. `` BBC World News.

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