16/09/2014 World Business Report

crisis in the region began. Those are the latest headlines from

BBC World News. Now for the latest financial news with Sally and World

Business Report. How fiscally strong could an

independent Scotland be? We examine the capacity of its jewel in the

crown, oil. French companies want fewer rules,

lower payroll charges and less state involvement in their business.

President Francois Hollande's government says it will deliver if

it survives a confidence vote today. Welcome to World Business Report.

I'm Sally Bundock. Also in the programme: the Alibaba roadshow is

now in Singapore. We'll connect with our team there for the latest.

Many would agree, Scotland's oil industry is arguably the jewel in

the crown of the pro`independence campaign. According to the Scottish

National Party, an independent Scotland will have access to 21

billion barrels of North Sea oil reserve and the Yes campaign

estimates these oil assets will generate tax revenues of ?7 billion

a year on average for the next five years ` that's about $11 billion.

But these forecasts are disputed by many. The Scottish oil and gas

Independent Expert Commission report says a more realistic reserves

figure is in fact just 15`16.5 billion barrels during the next five

years. These lower reserve, along with a slowing production rate and

lower oil prices, are behind the independent Office for Budget

Responsibility's estimate of ?3.5 a year in tax revenues. `` 3.5

billion. That's almost $6 billion and that is half of what the Yes

campaign has forecast. Sir Ian Wood, a respected oil and gas industry

expert, puts his most optimistic forecast at ?5 billion a year

leaving a substantial ?2 billion hole in Scotland's public finances.

And this is supported by leaders in the oil industry. The chief

executive's of Shell and BP say that Wood's assessment is correct.

John McLaren is leading economist and co`founder of the independent

think tank, Fiscal Affairs Scotland. Lots of different numbers there.

Quite a wide difference of opinion. What do you believe? The reason for

the different numbers, it is difficult to forecast the revenue

for a number of reasons. Production can vary up and down. The price in

particular is variable and the taxable amount of value can be due

to incentives and relief. It can vary year by year. Those figures are

all possible. One of the things to remember is that across the full

range, even at the top of the range, Scotland would be no better

off than the UK in terms of fiscal position. If it was at the bottom it

would be quite a lot worse off. In terms of, would it be better or

worse off, it is difficult to see how, looking into the future, given

most people think production will fall, that Scotland would struggle

to be in the same position it currently is. Looking at your

analysis as an independent organisation you do not believe

Scotland will be a schoolies stronger as an independent nation?

The figures at the minute suggest it will be worse off it difficult to

tell how. Oil`price in particular is hugely difficult to forecast. If it

went up to $150 it would be better off. If it fell to $80, $70, it

would be worse off. It is one of these ones, you really can have a

wide range to discuss these things. Even in the range being talked about

at the moment, with the Scottish government's own figures, they come

off at best the same, that Scotland would be in the UK. With it being so

difficult to forecast, it is very hard for an independent Scotland to

know and plan for a long`term future. Many argue it is the

long`term future that they are voting for. They know in the short

term there will be pain and struggles as they adjust. The

figures about how much oil is left, it is important in terms of how long

oil lasts but it is over what period of time that extra production might

come out. It is unlikely that the revenue from that production will

rise significantly. They are probably going to keep falling as

the price changes. What it means is it helps the budget over a number of

years, perhaps 50 rather than 30. There will not be a huge bounce

back, a second wave like in the 1980s when Scotland would be better

off if it kept the tax revenue. We appreciate your time, thank you very

much. French President Francois Hollande

faces a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly today amid record

low poll ratings. It comes three weeks after Prime Minister Manuel

Valls announced a new cabinet line`up, with a clear shift towards

more business`friendly economic policies. This has angered many on

the left of the Socialist party, who've threatened to oppose the new

line. Hugh Schofield reports from Paris.

It is a crucial test for the Prime Minister. Three weeks ago he took

the head of a new government having fired two of his dominant left wing

critics. Now he's putting his credibility on the line. He needs

this vote of confidence in Parliament to ensure support for his

pro`business line. Many in his own party are suspicious. They fear the

government has jumped its commitment to helping the poor and budget cuts

and deficit productions are making a bad economic situation worse. The

timing of the vote is not helpful. The President has just been through

another torrid period. A kiss and tell book by his ex` partner has

been a severe embarrassment. And the economic news keeps getting

grimmer. Unemployment stuck at over 10% and the government's budget

reduction is proving to be wildly optimistic. But he will tell the

assembly there is no alternative to his idea, gradually lightening the

tax burden on business so it has the confidence to start creating jobs

and reducing the scale of public spending. It is reckoned there are

between 30 and 40 potential rebels in the Socialist party ranks. So the

vote should be close. The government has one ace up its sleeve. The

rebels know if the government were to four new elections would leave

the Socialist party in pieces and many would lose their seats in the

National Assembly. A good argument for leaving the government in place

full `` for now. China's e`commerce giant, Alibaba,

has boosted the price of its US share float to between $66 and $68 a

share, in a sign there's strong investor demand for its initial

share offering. The news comes as the Alibaba roadshow arrives in

Singapore. You can see the man in charge behind me. Ashleigh Nghiem is

in Singapore for us today and gauging the appetite for this share

sale there. Good morning. From outside the Ritz

Carlton hotel in Singapore. This is where we believe the roadshow has

moved today. This meeting has been shrouded in a lot of secrecy and

very few details have been made available. If the past roadshows

including the one yesterday in Hong Kong are to be any guide then

investors should expect to be treated to a special lunch and an

appearance by a representative from Alibaba. There are few details from

the meeting but if the share price goes ahead, Alibaba stands to raise

a lot. This just goes to show the huge interest. From Singapore the

roadshow will head to London before making its way to Chicago.

That is all we have time for but we will see if he turns up later.

Air France has warned that disruption will get worse as a

week`long strike by its pilots continues. It said 60% of its

flights were likely to be cancelled on Tuesday as a result of the

strike, which began on Monday. The pilots are protesting against a

transfer of jobs by the airline to its low`cost European carrier,

Transavia, which is being expanded as part of a new strategic plan.

Lufthansa is experiencing strike action today as well. Hong Kong is

closed because of concern about a typhoon heading in its direction.

Japan is down. The papers in a minute. See you then.

More evidence of the pressure on the mental health services in England

has been revealed this morning. More than one in