14/12/2015 World Business Report


14/12/2015

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Now for the latest financial news with Sally

:00:00.:00:00.

It would be the first rate rise in the US for almost a decade, global

:00:00.:00:20.

markets are bracing themselves for this weeks decision from the Fed.

:00:21.:00:22.

We look at the knock-on effects to emerging economies like India.

:00:23.:00:28.

And some good news at last from China, November proves to be

:00:29.:00:31.

a stronger month on the factory floor and the high street.

:00:32.:00:39.

Also in the programme: The new film, Star Wars: The Force Awakens,

:00:40.:00:46.

We prepare you for a fresh deluge of merchandising,

:00:47.:01:02.

Share markets in Asia are sliding as anxiety about this weeks

:01:03.:01:05.

interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve sets in.

:01:06.:01:08.

The central bank let by Janet Yellen is expected to raise the cost

:01:09.:01:11.

of borrowing for the first time since the financial crisis.

:01:12.:01:13.

If it goes ahead it will be a sign of growing confidence

:01:14.:01:16.

in the US recovery, and while any rate increase will be small,

:01:17.:01:19.

and subsequent rises are likely to be gradual too, it will still have

:01:20.:01:23.

knock-on effects, particularly in the emerging economies.

:01:24.:01:24.

Here on the Bombay Stock exchange in Mumbai, the main shares index has

:01:25.:02:01.

fallen in 2015. If the US a starts offering better returns for rates,

:02:02.:02:03.

there is a better chance investors will decide to move more of their

:02:04.:02:07.

money there and doubted Indian businesses that are generally seen

:02:08.:02:14.

as riskier. It is not just Indian shares that are falling. The value

:02:15.:02:17.

of the Indian currency is that it is lowest against -- is at its lowest

:02:18.:02:25.

against the dollar in many years. The depreciating rupee means that

:02:26.:02:31.

many products are becoming more costly so expect to see imported

:02:32.:02:36.

items from mobile phones to food to computers and goals, all costing

:02:37.:02:44.

more. India's biggest import is oil and they have done well out of the

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dramatic fall in the last few months. But it is priced in dollars

:02:51.:02:55.

and if people have to pay more for its, it could get passed on through

:02:56.:03:00.

higher petrol and diesel prices. So what does this mean for business?

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Rising fuel prices mean it will cost more to transport goods. Raw

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materials like this will become more expensive, squeezing profit margins

:03:14.:03:17.

and another problem is that many Indian companies have high levels of

:03:18.:03:22.

dollar debt. So rising US rates will increase their costs, making them

:03:23.:03:27.

less profitable. But it is not all bad news. Sales from abroad will go

:03:28.:03:40.

up in terms of the currency. How India's response will be decided

:03:41.:03:43.

here the country's Central bank which is already cut interest rates

:03:44.:03:50.

this year. More cuts to encourage growth but the governor of the Bank

:03:51.:03:55.

is going to be hesitant to cut rates further as it will make it even less

:03:56.:04:00.

attractive for foreign investors. So when the US rate rise comes, it

:04:01.:04:05.

won't be a surprise but the full impact on India is not fully

:04:06.:04:10.

understood. And you can be sure that throughout the week, we'll have much

:04:11.:04:13.

more on that decision and the impact it will have around the world.

:04:14.:04:15.

Now onto the good news coming from China.

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The latest economic data shows November was a better than expected

:04:18.:04:20.

month for factories and retail sales were also robust.

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Rico Hizon is in Singapore, so Rico perhaps all

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the stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government are working?

:04:26.:04:40.

That's right. We have had a flurry of stimulus initiatives over the

:04:41.:04:49.

past year and a half. Six interest rate cuts since late 2014 and

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lowering bank reserve retirements may have indeed put a floor under

:04:54.:05:00.

this fragile mainland economy. That there is always the flipside, there

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are cynics who still believe that the more policy steps are needed to

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whether all of these nagging headwinds at home and overseas,

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particularly with the cooling property market, risk from high

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domestic debt levels and weak global demand as financial markets brace

:05:19.:05:25.

for interest rate rises by the US central bank. Factory output

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expanded by an annual 6.2%, which is higher than expected and one of the

:05:30.:05:37.

main drivers of the economy was higher than forecast. Retail sales

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also gained, their strongest expansion this year and analysts say

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that while a low base could be driving this economic growth, it

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could be a sign that China's economic data is showing signs of

:05:51.:05:53.

stable as they should, albeit at a low level. Very welcome news. Thank

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you. Star Wars,

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the movie that launched the whole blockbuster franchise model back

:06:00.:06:01.

in the 70s, holds its latest The Force Awakens is

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the seventh film to appear, and the first since Disney bought

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the franchise back in 2012. Prepare for a fresh deluge

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of merchandising, promotional tie-ins and of course the actual

:06:11.:06:12.

movie, all timed to coincide with High energy and nostalgia for the

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original trilogy. The trailers offer few clues to the actual plot but

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fans are promised the same look and feel of George Lucas' below the

:06:50.:06:53.

first films but this is not the same franchise. It has been awakened by

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the Disney empire. This adds these icons to their endless revenues

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dreamed. The future of the franchise is limitless. I see no reason that

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Star Wars can't continue in the hands of gifted storytellers. A huge

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factor in the franchise's success is its broad appeal across three

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generations. A retailers dream which Disney has been more than happy to

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fulfil. We will be doubling space in our stores for Star Wars with many

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new products allowing collectors and children alike the ability to get

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into this franchise again. Merchandising has driven most of the

:07:39.:07:42.

revenue for the franchise and it is expected to go up 5 billion within a

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year of the release of this film. There are toys, thousands of novelty

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items and even video games. Star Wars Battlefront is expected to:

:07:53.:07:53.

$700 billion million and there is even talk of a

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theme park. Disney has made fewer of its own movies, allowing their

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subsidiaries to make the blockbusters and is now focused on

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growing its brand and marketing it. It has become a self-sustaining

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business that could outlive its first fans, from once upon a time

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and far, far away. In other news: The South African

:08:25.:08:26.

president, Jacob Zuma, has appointed his third finance

:08:27.:08:28.

minister in a week. The new man is Pravin Gordhan,

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who has served The decision follows sharp falls on

:08:32.:08:33.

financial markets in response to the unexplained sacking on Wednesday of

:08:34.:08:37.

Nhlanhla Nene, and his replacement Business confidence

:08:38.:08:40.

in Japan held steady in December The Bank of Japan's closely-watched

:08:41.:08:47.

Tankan Index shows sentiment at That means their confidence hasn't

:08:48.:08:51.

changed for the past three months. Twitter has sent warnings to

:08:52.:09:02.

a number of users that their accounts may have been hacked

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by what they describe It is the first time that

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the social media company has issued The number of accounts affected

:09:08.:09:10.

by the suspected hack is unclear. The Chinese and North Korean

:09:11.:09:14.

governments are thought to be Let's have a look at the markets.

:09:15.:09:33.

Anxiety is setting in about that Fed decision which will come through on

:09:34.:09:41.

Wednesday. Japan is down, and elsewhere losses right across the

:09:42.:09:44.

board despite the good news that we had from China. This is the close on

:09:45.:09:51.

Wall Street on Friday which does not bode well for Monday in Asia.

:09:52.:10:01.

The annual tax return could soon be a thing of the past

:10:02.:10:04.

as HMRC launch a new way to work out how much you owe.

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