07/06/2016 World Business Report


07/06/2016

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Sally has all the business and -- answers.

:00:00.:00:16.

Modi and Obama are together again, this time in Washington with trade

:00:17.:00:19.

So what will India's Prime Minister take home this time?

:00:20.:00:25.

And the bets are off for a summer rate hike in the US,

:00:26.:00:28.

but just how cautious is Janet Yellen, the most powerful

:00:29.:00:31.

Also in the programme: What is the fate of India's

:00:32.:00:48.

Will Raghuram Rajan keep the top job?

:00:49.:00:51.

Our team in Mumbai is across that for us.

:00:52.:00:54.

The leaders of the world's two biggest democracies will meet today

:00:55.:00:57.

in Washington for a working lunch at the White House.

:00:58.:01:00.

Business opportunities will be top of the agenda

:01:01.:01:02.

when India's Narendra Modi and President Obama meet.

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According to one estimate, some 30 US companies have invested

:01:05.:01:06.

more than 15 billion dollars in India over the past 18 months.

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And in the next year, 50 more are expected to invest

:01:10.:01:12.

With me is Gervais Williams, managing director of Miton Group.

:01:13.:01:32.

Good morning. Now, give us your take on how important this relationship

:01:33.:01:37.

is and who is getting the most out of it? It is an important

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relationship. India has lots of development opportunity. There is a

:01:43.:01:47.

large population which is ready to do more work and the business sector

:01:48.:01:51.

is not drawing good figures and growth at the moment, encouraging

:01:52.:01:56.

inward investment, and if Modi can get more investment from the US, the

:01:57.:01:59.

biggest investor of capital in the world, that will boost the

:02:00.:02:02.

opportunity to grow the economy and deliver on the promises. What are

:02:03.:02:07.

the hindrances? It is not easy for countries working -- companies

:02:08.:02:12.

working and investing in India. It is still much less educated than the

:02:13.:02:16.

average education in China even, for example, so there is a long way to

:02:17.:02:20.

go, and a huge bureaucracy holds back business. They want to invest

:02:21.:02:24.

but find bureaucracy holds it back. That puts them off after a while. It

:02:25.:02:29.

is a big area to deal with. Some sectors have found it hard, like

:02:30.:02:32.

retail, they have found it hard to set up shop in India, but I think

:02:33.:02:37.

things are improving, are they not, in terms of the barriers that were

:02:38.:02:41.

there some years ago. They are improving and the opportunities,

:02:42.:02:46.

infrastructure is also going at the moment, for example the Indian rail

:02:47.:02:49.

system, which was around 3000 kilometres, has only really added

:02:50.:02:55.

around 4000 kilometres since that time, so we need more investment in

:02:56.:03:02.

infrastructure. Now, for Narendra Modi this is one of several trips to

:03:03.:03:06.

the US. Remember his first after becoming PM, it was like a rockstar

:03:07.:03:11.

welcome in Madison Square, how is he going down having been in the job.

:03:12.:03:18.

I'm? -- being in the top job for some time? The world has been

:03:19.:03:21.

slowing. Not many economies are doing as well as India. It is

:03:22.:03:26.

actually a leading light in opportunities going forward and that

:03:27.:03:29.

is why the US are keen to engage on there. In terms of investment,

:03:30.:03:34.

something you advise your clients on, many like the IMF and others at

:03:35.:03:39.

the start of this year said India is one of the economies that will boom.

:03:40.:03:43.

It is growing faster than China. Your thoughts on how exciting it is

:03:44.:03:49.

as an opportunity? The opportunity ratio is improving. Some of the

:03:50.:03:53.

ratios are coming through. At a time when economic slowdown has been seen

:03:54.:03:56.

with poor US data coming through. We have seen slow growth, a recession,

:03:57.:04:02.

really, in Japan at the moment, and so from that point of view in a

:04:03.:04:06.

world context it is one of the brightest areas of growth going

:04:07.:04:10.

forward. OK. Thank you very much indeed. He will return in five

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minutes when we review the papers. Let's stay with India for a little

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longer. The country's central

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bank will meet today And it's a key time

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for the Governor Raghuram Rajan as his current tenure comes

:04:19.:04:22.

to an end in September. That's up to the Indian government

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and it's not made a decision yet. Rajan has also remained silent

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on this issue and this is making This report from Sameer Hashmi

:04:31.:04:33.

contains flash photography. Every two months when India's

:04:34.:04:44.

central bank meets in this building to decide on interest rates,

:04:45.:04:47.

the markets are usually Similarly, this meeting has

:04:48.:04:49.

been watched closely The big question on everybody's mind

:04:50.:04:56.

is will the governor Raghuram Rajan continue

:04:57.:05:07.

on the reserve bank of India post September when his term comes

:05:08.:05:09.

to an end? There are have been a series

:05:10.:05:11.

of events over the last couple of months which have

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put a big question mark It started with a senior member

:05:15.:05:16.

of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party criticising Mr Rajan

:05:17.:05:21.

for keeping interest rates high. Most saw it as a political attack

:05:22.:05:28.

given Mr Rajan has had what many say an uneasy relationship

:05:29.:05:32.

with the current regime. He has criticised certain economic

:05:33.:05:35.

policies of the government, like the flagship manufacturing

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programme, and has also often played down the euphoria around

:05:42.:05:43.

India's economic growth. And what has added fuel

:05:44.:05:45.

to the ongoing debate is the silence of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi

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and whether he will give Mr Rajan When we hear from the central bank

:05:49.:06:05.

in India as to its decision on the cost of borrowing, we will update

:06:06.:06:09.

you, but now let's focus on the United States.

:06:10.:06:09.

Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says a UK vote to leave the EU

:06:10.:06:12.

could have "significant economic repercussions".

:06:13.:06:21.

The central bank is meeting next week to decide if interest rates

:06:22.:06:24.

She also reacted to the poor US jobs data from last week,

:06:25.:06:27.

describing it as disappointing, but that it was outweighed

:06:28.:06:30.

She talked about how a UK vote to leave the EU could have significant

:06:31.:06:44.

repercussions - that is on her mind as she gathers to decide on rates in

:06:45.:06:47.

June. The central bank meeting is next week. She also reacted of

:06:48.:06:54.

course to the poor US jobs data on Friday, describing it as

:06:55.:06:57.

disappointing. And that was outweighed by mostly positive

:06:58.:07:02.

trends, she said. Let's go to Sharanjit Leyl for the Asian

:07:03.:07:06.

reaction there. What are markets doing off the back of what she had

:07:07.:07:10.

to say? Well I am just looking at them now and they are all

:07:11.:07:12.

essentially higher with the exception of Shanghai. And of course

:07:13.:07:17.

all of that due to those comments from the Fed reserve boss Janet

:07:18.:07:21.

Yellen, essentially, as you said, she said the economy was still in

:07:22.:07:24.

fairly good shape and any increase in borrowing costs would be fairly

:07:25.:07:28.

slow and also reasonably low. So the fact that she didn't give any

:07:29.:07:33.

indication of when they would lift interest rates was seen to be

:07:34.:07:35.

somewhat good news by many investors here. There was a sigh of relief

:07:36.:07:41.

that her comments actually help to steady nerves over in New York and

:07:42.:07:46.

here and it was a huge relief after last week's dismal report on jobs

:07:47.:07:51.

from the US as well. We're seeing the Nikkei in fact gaining somewhat

:07:52.:07:54.

today despite the strength of the yen as well, so, really, you know,

:07:55.:08:00.

her comments in rejecting a real sense of buoyancy, a little optimism

:08:01.:08:05.

here. All right, we like optimism. Thank you so much. Nice to see you,

:08:06.:08:07.

Sharanjit. In other news: Saudi Arabia's

:08:08.:08:09.

cabinet has approved plans to diversify the country's

:08:10.:08:13.

economy away from oil with the aim of creating

:08:14.:08:18.

450,000 jobs by 2020. The National Transformation

:08:19.:08:20.

Programme also aims to cut public spending by 40% over

:08:21.:08:23.

the next five years. It's part of a number of initiatives

:08:24.:08:26.

announced in April. French president Francois Hollande

:08:27.:08:28.

says he wants Europe's largest hotel group to keep a diverse

:08:29.:08:30.

group of shareholders. The comments have been seen

:08:31.:08:32.

as a warning against China's state-owned Jin Jiang

:08:33.:08:35.

from attempting a possible takeover Jin Jiang has been increasing

:08:36.:08:37.

its stake in Accor, Greece must pay the International

:08:38.:08:41.

Monetary Fund about $340 million While a relatively small amount,

:08:42.:08:54.

it's the first in a number of repayments to international

:08:55.:09:01.

creditors totalling about $12 billion, which fall

:09:02.:09:06.

due in June and July. You might the grease brokered extra

:09:07.:09:14.

help in the nick of time in order see through those payments due in

:09:15.:09:15.

June and July. So, these are the markets and as

:09:16.:09:22.

Sharanjit said, positive reaction to the fact that interest rates might

:09:23.:09:26.

not be going up in the US soon, as in June and July. You can see the

:09:27.:09:31.

yen has weakened a little as well versus the dollar compared with this

:09:32.:09:36.

time yesterday, which really helps the Japanese markets. And look at

:09:37.:09:41.

the price of oil, above $50 a barrel, Brent crude above that

:09:42.:09:44.

significant psychological level. How long will it hold there? Keeping an

:09:45.:09:51.

eye on the pound. The debate on the UK position in Europe continues. And

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that is how it ended on Wall Street. I will see you

:09:56.:09:56.

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