07/07/2016 World Business Report


07/07/2016

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Now for the latest financial news with Aaron and World Business

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Sterling plunges to its lowest since 1985 as those Brexit

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Plus, braced for Brexit over the border: Why businesses

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We start of course with the ongoing impact of Britain's vote to leave

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The pound has been, well, pounded by investors amid growing

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concern that the vote for Brexit is hurting confidence

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Not to mention a major hint from the Bank of England that

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interest rates could be cut as early as this month.

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At one point the pound dipped below $1.28.

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That's a new 31-year low, in other words it's the first time

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Back when hits from Madonna and Phil Collins topped

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So I am told by my producer - I am too young to remember

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If you start by taking a look at the chart,

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the pound plunged on referendum night but has continued to fall ever

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since, it's now down some 14% since June 23rd.

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It's good news for many FTSE 100 companies who make around three

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quarters of their profits outside the UK, so they'll see earnings

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That helps explain why the FTSE has been so strong since the referendum.

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It's also good news for UK exporters because it means that their products

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become cheaper for foreign customers to buy.

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But it also means that imports have become more expensive,

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leading to price rises on everything from food to TVs.

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And the biggest issue, it has further dented investor

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confidence in the UK, which has now lost its last

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Experts are saying the pound could fall a lot further.

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England is small relative to the EU and we don't know what kinds

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But here is what we do know: They can't be all that good

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because the rest of the European Union has

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to self-preserve and they have to make a little bit of an example

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out of England so it's probably not a great sign.

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And the other truth is that this will probably reveal other

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divisions inside British society, and already has.

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And so you are going to have a divided country

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with unknown leadership going into a period of weakness

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in a weak global economy with a lot of negative scrutiny on them

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and that is kind of a recipe for a lot of tumult,

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turmoil and negative sentiment and we are seeing that price right

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Jeremy Cook is Chief Economist at World First foreign exchange.

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Good to see you. Thank you for coming in at this hour. We always

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talk about the pros and cons of the currency, so, great for our

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exporters, hopefully they will sell a lot more. Good for people coming

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in, inbound tourism, good for us if we want to go out. But where is the

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balance? Is one better than the other? There is still a lot to shake

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out over the course of the next few months. We have seen a fall in the

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pound that textbooks say is good for exporters. But we saw a fall in the

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pound and our export base didn't go very well. There is something called

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purchasing power parity, which means it should stabilise, and the pound

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is below that at the moment. We are hoping for it to continue further.

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We always say against the dollar. But the euro has taken much of a

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hit. Are there some people wondering why there are people hammering the

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UK at the moment, with this except referendum vote, when you look

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across the water at Europe and you have Spain and Portugal, who look

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set to become the first ever in the eurozone to be fined because they

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are going to break some EU fiscal rules. The Greeks are on their

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1,000,000th bailout, with another fifth bailout. They have money they

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will never be able to pay back, and yet everyone is saying to the UK it

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is better to be with them. European government debt is German or French,

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and you have to buy euros to be able to move into that. So that keeps the

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euro supported? We have also seen investors move into currencies that

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are not under inflationary pressures. Inflation is very low in

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the eurozone, in Japan it is up around 20 cents against the pound.

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If the EU gets a bit of leadership, could there be a rebound? De. There

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will always be a rebound. Let's stay with Brexit

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but move to Ireland, after last month's UK vote

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to leave the European Union. Ireland's the only EU country

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sharing a land border with the UK and the two share deep

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economic and trade ties. The BBC's Diarmaid Fleming

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visited two companies in Ireland concerned

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about what Brexit may mean Sweets being packed in Dublin in the

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business typical of Ireland, with close ties to the UK. Sugar, the key

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ingredient, is imported from Britain, which is also an important

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destination for the produce. A sixth of Ireland's exports go to the UK,

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from where a third of their imports come. Part of trade worth over $1

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billion a week. The referendum has left anything but a sweet taste for

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Irish business, with anxiety and uncertainty over what might be

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coming down the line, particularly if trade barriers and tariffs were

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to become a reality. The possibility of barriers being put in place, if

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and when they do leave, is a worry, big as it will delay all our imports

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from the UK and set us back in the marketplace against our competitors,

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who will be UK based and flooding the market here. I am standing right

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on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

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The only thing that will tell you that you are moving from one to the

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other is a roadside here. One of the biggest fears people have about

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Brexit in this part of Ireland is the impact it might have on border

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controls. Political peace in Northern Ireland has brought a big

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business dividend to the border region, an area once blighted by

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violence. With its headquarters just minutes by road inside the Republic,

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Ireland's biggest exporter of ducks now sends produce as far away as

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China, and many more to the key UK market. They are worried about

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weaker sterling making their ducks more expensive, and are even more

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worried about the return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and

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the republic. Europe has been very good for us in this part of the

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world, and to see it now go back we are worried about how it will pan

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out. We see it as a backward step and we just hope it doesn't go back

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to the bad old days. The scale of uncertainty is being matched. The

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low corporation tax rate of 12.5% has been a centre of their strategy

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to woo foreign firms. Plans to cut it in the UK means new challenges

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for Irish business and close could petition.

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Let's go to Asia now where Samsung Electronics

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is predicting its best quarterly profits for two years.

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It's all down to booming sales of its flagship smartphone,

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They sell more of those and they make more money. Absolutely. They

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flagged up these better profits that they are due to realise at the end

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of the month. It is also due to cost cuts, and the latest model, with the

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company forecasting operating profit of $7 million. That is among the

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best it has posted for about two years. The South Korean electronics

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giant, which happens to be the top-selling handset maker, has a

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lion's share of the firm's overall profits. We now know it is being

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further squeezed from the iPhone and by Chinese rivals like Huawei. It is

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time to break into emerging markets, making a lot of cost cuts, and this

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has apparently pushed its sales higher. Good news for Samsung.

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We can see the Nikkei is slightly down, and I want to get over to...

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Anyway, I will be back

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