13/10/2016 World Business Report


13/10/2016

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Now for the latest financial news with Sally and World Business

:00:00.:00:00.

Brexit breather for sterling - the pound regains some ground

:00:00.:00:18.

after the UK government agrees Parliament should

:00:19.:00:20.

Plus, Marmite wars - Tesco pulls dozens of household

:00:21.:00:27.

brands off its website in a pricing battle with supplier Unilever.

:00:28.:00:40.

Also in the programme: China sees a big fall in exports hitting market

:00:41.:00:48.

We start with the impact of Brexit on financial markets

:00:49.:01:00.

because there has been some relief for the battered pound.

:01:01.:01:02.

It had its biggest jump against the dollar in a month

:01:03.:01:05.

after Prime Minister Theresa May suggested she would give Parliament

:01:06.:01:08.

a say in plans to leave the European Union.

:01:09.:01:10.

That has eased some of the fears of a hard line approach to the talks

:01:11.:01:14.

which could see the UK leave the EU single market.

:01:15.:01:18.

According to calculations by the UK treasury,

:01:19.:01:21.

leaving the EU single market, a so called hard Brexit,

:01:22.:01:24.

could cost it as much as ?66 billion each year,

:01:25.:01:26.

It says Britain's economy, its annual output or GDP,

:01:27.:01:30.

could be up to 9.5% smaller within 15 years if it can't strike

:01:31.:01:33.

a deal giving access to the EU market,

:01:34.:01:36.

and is forced to operate under World Trade Organisation rules.

:01:37.:01:46.

These figures are disputed by Brexit supporters.

:01:47.:01:49.

But what can't be disputed is what's happened to the pound.

:01:50.:01:52.

It has lost 18% of its value since the Brexit vote,

:01:53.:01:55.

The FTSE 100 though has been hitting record levels.

:01:56.:02:11.

That's because many of its companies generate big profits overseas,

:02:12.:02:14.

which are worth more when they're converted to the weaker sterling.

:02:15.:02:18.

But the UK consumer is already feeling the effects.

:02:19.:02:25.

Tesco has withdrawn some of the most popular brands from its website,

:02:26.:02:36.

including Marmite spread, Vienetta ice cream and Persil

:02:37.:02:38.

washing powder - after Unilever tried to put up prices to compensate

:02:39.:02:41.

Our Business Editor Simon Jack reports.

:02:42.:02:54.

Out of stock, Marmite, Ben Jerry's ice cream, Persil, withdrawn from

:02:55.:03:01.

the website as the biggest retailer in the UK would not accept a 10%

:03:02.:03:05.

price increase from Unilever. Retailers and suppliers fall out all

:03:06.:03:09.

the time but industry sources say this is of a different magnitude.

:03:10.:03:13.

The biggest retailer in the country to fall out with its biggest

:03:14.:03:17.

supplier Marks a new front in a perennial prize for some say has

:03:18.:03:23.

escalated because of Brexit. This is Unilever's justification for the

:03:24.:03:28.

higher bill. The value of sterling has fallen 17% since the Brexit

:03:29.:03:31.

which means Dutch company Unilever is seeing a fall in prices, so they

:03:32.:03:40.

are upping the price to compensate. We have seen the pound fall as a

:03:41.:03:44.

result of the Brexit vote and obviously as food products are

:03:45.:03:49.

imported this is putting pressure on suppliers and eventually something

:03:50.:03:53.

will have to give. We eventually may see some of the cost increases

:03:54.:03:59.

coming through to actual prices on supermarket shelves which would be

:04:00.:04:02.

bad for the everyday average British consumer. It was just last week that

:04:03.:04:09.

the boss of Tesco told the BBC that price pressures were building. There

:04:10.:04:13.

are some pressures. Commodity prices, exchange rates will bring

:04:14.:04:18.

pressure to the marketplace and historically that has seen prices

:04:19.:04:23.

rise but I stress the approach at Tesco is to work with suppliers to

:04:24.:04:27.

try to offset those pressures through productivity and other

:04:28.:04:31.

things so that prices don't rise. That working together at is to have

:04:32.:04:35.

stopped working. In a statement Tesco hoped the dispute would be

:04:36.:04:39.

resolved soon but until then shoppers may find some items on

:04:40.:04:41.

their shopping list missing. Jeremy Cook is chief economist

:04:42.:04:45.

at foreign exchange firm World It is nice to see you again, Jeremy.

:04:46.:04:55.

Simon's story illustrates the effect on the real economy of all of this.

:04:56.:05:00.

Absolutely. The next question people are asking is just how much prices

:05:01.:05:04.

will increase as a result of this. The UK... It may have been part of

:05:05.:05:09.

the EU it still is, but it is an island nation, we import a lot of

:05:10.:05:14.

the food we consume, fuel, cars and houses consumed to run and heat, so

:05:15.:05:18.

how much as a result of the devaluation of the pound will we be

:05:19.:05:21.

paying more in the next coming years" and this situation, that is,

:05:22.:05:26.

the pound is sensitive to every bit of news about Brexit will carry on

:05:27.:05:32.

presumably until March 2017. That is when we are supposedly exiting.

:05:33.:05:37.

Yeah, the initial falls have been on the back of the fact that we were

:05:38.:05:41.

not getting... And these were not going to get a vote, MPs are likely

:05:42.:05:45.

to a debate gave it a little boost, but the fact is that unless we can

:05:46.:05:51.

see a clear plan from the UK government about how they expect to

:05:52.:05:56.

attack the negotiations with the EU than all the rumour, speculation and

:05:57.:06:01.

intrigue, any leaks from either the UK government or the EU government

:06:02.:06:05.

are going to send it into a volatile frenzy. It's interesting as well

:06:06.:06:09.

because it's not just about exit but it's also about what's happening

:06:10.:06:13.

elsewhere, so in the US it will be impacted ivy -- by the election, and

:06:14.:06:22.

the effect on the euro, but the difficulty with the dollar will

:06:23.:06:25.

likely remain strong because it is seen as one of the safest havens in

:06:26.:06:29.

the world, isn't it, US Treasuries? Currency markets and political risk

:06:30.:06:33.

are always uneasy bedfellows and as we saw with Brexit this year... The

:06:34.:06:38.

trump that possibility at the presidency, we think it could lead

:06:39.:06:43.

to a fair bout of US dollar strength -- Trump possibility. Everyone looks

:06:44.:06:48.

to the US as a safe haven when things get crazy in markets and

:06:49.:06:51.

there would be nothing more crazy than a Trump residency, so that

:06:52.:06:55.

could keep the sterling dollar below the 20% level once again. In the

:06:56.:07:00.

meantime, prices of things in the UK will be going up, won't they? Yes.

:07:01.:07:05.

Inflation will be a problem. We saw it at the petrol pump, we are seeing

:07:06.:07:09.

it with imported flour, which goes into bread, milk, eggs, the basics

:07:10.:07:15.

you rely on, they will get more expensive. Brexit makes households

:07:16.:07:19.

poorer. So we need to stockpile Marmite. Anything from Unilever. I

:07:20.:07:24.

never thought I would see the day. Jeremy, thank you very much indeed

:07:25.:07:26.

for coming in. Let's turn to Asia now where markets

:07:27.:07:27.

are being hit by news of a slump Riuco Hizon is following this

:07:28.:07:31.

for us in Singapore Now, Rico .org Sally, I still want

:07:32.:07:45.

my Marmite. All the news has been fairly positive. This is a surprise,

:07:46.:07:51.

isn't it? Absolutely. You have Japanese stocks reversing early

:07:52.:07:59.

gains like other Asian stock markets as exporters were hit by a rush into

:08:00.:08:04.

the Japanese yen as the mainland released worse report fuelling

:08:05.:08:07.

worries about the second largest economy. Exports plummeting 10%

:08:08.:08:12.

year-on-year and imports falling around 2% due to an mean it global

:08:13.:08:19.

and domestic demand both exports and imports missing expectations --

:08:20.:08:27.

anaemic. This comes after the Chinese currency weakening towards

:08:28.:08:31.

the end of September. Over the last week it has touched its lowest

:08:32.:08:34.

levels against the dollar in six years, so markets here have been

:08:35.:08:38.

affected from Hong Kong to South Korea to Singapore as China is

:08:39.:08:43.

indeed very crucial to the global economy and its performance

:08:44.:08:47.

affecting trading partners. When you talk to some analysts they are not

:08:48.:08:52.

certain if this week trading figure is a signal for slower economic

:08:53.:08:57.

growth going forward, and others say that despite the poor data is they

:08:58.:09:02.

see confidence improving as the economy stabilises and emperors.

:09:03.:09:07.

Thank you very much indeed, Rico, and in a few minutes we will show

:09:08.:09:11.

you the impact it is having on market - we will show you the

:09:12.:09:13.

numbers. In other news: John Stumpf,

:09:14.:09:13.

the boss of US banking giant Wells Fargo, is to resign

:09:14.:09:17.

immediately in the wake of a scandal The bank is investigating how two

:09:18.:09:20.

million accounts were opened without customers' permission

:09:21.:09:24.

to boost sales figures. Last month Wells Fargo was fined

:09:25.:09:31.

$185 million and accused of "widespread

:09:32.:09:34.

illegal practice" by US regulators. Mr Stumpf will be succeeded

:09:35.:09:36.

by the bank's current president and chief operating

:09:37.:09:39.

officer Timothy Sloan. So, let's look at markets, and as

:09:40.:09:55.

Rico mentioned Chinese news hitting sentiment especially for Hong Kong

:09:56.:09:58.

with shares in hanging high -- Shanghai lower as well. The yen is

:09:59.:10:04.

weakening a bit. Just to mention markets also moved by the Fed

:10:05.:10:10.

minutes released in the US showing the Federal Open Market Committee

:10:11.:10:13.

voted 7-3 to leave interest rates unchanged at the last meeting but

:10:14.:10:17.

could they be going up in December? That's all from me for now. See you

:10:18.:10:21.

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