Browse content similar to 03/01/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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A record number of UK oil and gas companies went bust in 2016 | :00:15. | :00:17. | |
but could this be the year the price of the black stuff bounces back? | :00:18. | :00:24. | |
Where should you put your money this year? | :00:25. | :00:30. | |
And will economists or fortune tellers have the upper | :00:31. | :00:33. | |
Also in the programme, live in Singapore to hear how | :00:34. | :00:47. | |
the city state's economy is faring and you may be surprised. | :00:48. | :00:50. | |
The number of UK oil and gas companies going bust has reached | :00:51. | :00:56. | |
an all-time high following the slump in prices of crude. | :00:57. | :00:59. | |
That's according to accountancy firm Moore Stephens who say a total of 16 | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
businesses became insolvent last year, an eight fold | :01:04. | :01:05. | |
Despite the recent increase in the price of the black stuff, | :01:06. | :01:16. | |
at just under $60 a barrel it's still just over half | :01:17. | :01:19. | |
That price point has hit the industry hard and the New Year | :01:20. | :01:25. | |
marked the start of the first global pact to cut oil production | :01:26. | :01:28. | |
From January 1, members of Opec along with other oil-producing | :01:29. | :01:34. | |
countries slashed crude output by nearly 1.8 million barrels a day. | :01:35. | :01:38. | |
So could this be a year of recovery for the industry? | :01:39. | :01:41. | |
With me now is Amrita Sen, Chief Oil Analyst, Energy Aspects. | :01:42. | :01:52. | |
Happy New Year to you. It is good to see you. What will we see this year, | :01:53. | :02:00. | |
do you think? We mentioned that OPEC and non- OPEC members are supposedly | :02:01. | :02:04. | |
following through on their promises are what impact will that have? | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
Prices should climb back gradually. It will be slow because there is | :02:10. | :02:12. | |
still a lot of infantry but the global agreement should see... | :02:13. | :02:19. | |
Compliance will be sketchy but about one million barrels a day will be | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
taken off the market so that should help run the stores down. When you | :02:24. | :02:29. | |
talk about compliance, I know that OPEC were at pains to say they will | :02:30. | :02:33. | |
believe that and be sure that their members follow through on their | :02:34. | :02:36. | |
commitment, as it were. Can we expect more this time? They are | :02:37. | :02:41. | |
planning to have a meeting to assess how it is going. The core countries, | :02:42. | :02:47. | |
the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, they have always been compliant. I do not | :02:48. | :02:53. | |
expect any form of cheating from them. Iraq, I think, will be tricky | :02:54. | :03:00. | |
because they need the money to fight Isis and I do not expect any | :03:01. | :03:06. | |
compliance from them. The rest, what works in favour of OPEC, is because | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
of years of underinvestment, decline rates accelerating so by default | :03:11. | :03:14. | |
they will be complying. This time last year we were looking at oil | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
around $40 a barrel and there was a massive fall early on in 2016 | :03:20. | :03:22. | |
because of what was going on in China. As we have mentioned, many | :03:23. | :03:28. | |
companies going bust, the smaller energy companies. Will we see more | :03:29. | :03:33. | |
of that this year? I think the worst is behind us. In terms of companies | :03:34. | :03:39. | |
struggling. That does not mean they will turn into profits overnight | :03:40. | :03:42. | |
because again we do not expect oil prices to go much beyond 60 or $65 | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
in the first half of the year. Perhaps in the back end of the year | :03:48. | :03:51. | |
but it will take a while. I think companies have cut costs but we are | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
seeing a couple of years of severe cuts and the effects of that is that | :03:56. | :04:02. | |
it will come through in prices. And what will Trump administration mean, | :04:03. | :04:06. | |
do you think? It is quite difficult to assess his impact, isn't it, in | :04:07. | :04:11. | |
terms of the energy industry in the US, for example. It is difficult. He | :04:12. | :04:17. | |
is pro- oil and gas drilling but a lot of regulation is that the state | :04:18. | :04:21. | |
level rather than the federal level. Can he make a big difference? His | :04:22. | :04:24. | |
foreign policy will be the interesting one to watch out for and | :04:25. | :04:28. | |
could have an effect on global demand. On the flip side he could | :04:29. | :04:32. | |
tear up the Iran nuclear deal which could be positive for oil prices. A | :04:33. | :04:38. | |
lot of uncertainty there. Lovely to see you and we will see you again | :04:39. | :04:44. | |
soon. We will make sure she keeps us across how well is doing this year. | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
that sounds pretty impressive doesn't it! | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
Well that is how Singapore's economy performed in the fourth quarter | :04:53. | :04:55. | |
of 2016 and that is much better than expected. | :04:56. | :04:57. | |
Sharanjit Leyl joins me now from Singapore with the latest. | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
Sharanjit, you have shopped like never before! | :05:03. | :05:12. | |
Now it is not my shopping habits, especially as I did most of my | :05:13. | :05:18. | |
shopping overseas in the last two weeks or so. Happy New Year and good | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
news for this city, Singapore. A wet day behind me as you can see but it | :05:24. | :05:28. | |
is one of the most export dependent nations in Asia and its economy grew | :05:29. | :05:32. | |
at its fastest pace in over three years last quarter. That seemed to | :05:33. | :05:37. | |
be a very good gauge of the global economy. But there is not what | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
another worrying side which I will mention that the headline numbers | :05:42. | :05:45. | |
first, they showed that manufacturing, services were to be | :05:46. | :05:53. | |
accredited. They grew, leading to GDP rebounding that 9.1% you | :05:54. | :05:57. | |
mentioned in the three months to December. Bear in mind this is | :05:58. | :06:00. | |
rising from a low base from the previous quarter when it declined | :06:01. | :06:05. | |
where it was 1.9%. But, as I said, it is not all good news. The economy | :06:06. | :06:12. | |
expanding at its lowest -- slowest pace since 2009. Of course, we know | :06:13. | :06:19. | |
that global growth is coming under pressure. The US is threatening to | :06:20. | :06:23. | |
turn protectionist under Donald Trump and the outlook remains a | :06:24. | :06:27. | |
fairly murky. The Prime Minister himself has said in his New Year | :06:28. | :06:31. | |
message that overall Singapore is not doing that badly, considering | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
the global economic uncertainty. He did maintain that the labour market | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
has eased unemployment remained low and the city is still creating jobs. | :06:41. | :06:47. | |
A warning this year that anti- globalisation antitrade sentiment | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
could dampen already very weak global trade conditions. Having said | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
that, however, the two factors contributed to the growth this time | :06:57. | :06:59. | |
around, the service industry which is about two thirds of the economy. | :07:00. | :07:05. | |
They rose 94% after the previous three months. Manufacturing jumping | :07:06. | :07:11. | |
an annualised 14.6%. For the moment these are fairly enviable numbers. | :07:12. | :07:17. | |
Thank you very much good to see you. One of the most used words of the | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
year in 2016 was surreal. We had the British vote to leave | :07:22. | :07:23. | |
the European Union and Donald Trump won the White House | :07:24. | :07:26. | |
against all odds. We hear what a longtime economist | :07:27. | :07:28. | |
and a traditional fortune-teller It is that time of year when many | :07:29. | :07:40. | |
Asians head to the temples to pray for good luck and figure out what is | :07:41. | :07:48. | |
in the year ahead. Neither financial forecasters nor fortune tellers | :07:49. | :07:50. | |
accurately predicted what happened in 2016. So if everyone is getting, | :07:51. | :07:55. | |
who is to say what will happen in 2017. This area is filled with | :07:56. | :08:00. | |
fortune tellers and numerology is and I am here to meet one of them. | :08:01. | :08:09. | |
Master Alex So. As well as an economist at a private bank to find | :08:10. | :08:13. | |
out. So, the US and China. What sort of relationship will they have in | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
2017? It will be interesting to say the least. The two largest economies | :08:19. | :08:21. | |
in the world. You are looking, you know, China who is sending in terms | :08:22. | :08:28. | |
of playing a larger role in global politics in global trade so how it | :08:29. | :08:34. | |
will play out really will depend on how Mr Trump is going to deal with | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
some of his contentious campaign pledges, especially targeted towards | :08:40. | :08:43. | |
China. Next year as the fire rooster. From the word fire we will | :08:44. | :08:48. | |
have a lot of problem going on and you will find that there will be a | :08:49. | :08:54. | |
lot of problems. It will be a hiccup between the US and China so I think | :08:55. | :09:00. | |
Donald Trump has two try to make it work. How about growth? What will | :09:01. | :09:07. | |
that be next year? The driver of growth next year will be the | :09:08. | :09:11. | |
recovery in consumer demand on the back of a recovery in jobs. That | :09:12. | :09:16. | |
could translate into investment recovery, perhaps of a later leg | :09:17. | :09:21. | |
towards the end of the year. 20141516. Next year is considered | :09:22. | :09:27. | |
the last year of a five-year change. So, basically, on the first of you | :09:28. | :09:36. | |
will see something. What is the big surprise of 2017? What we need to be | :09:37. | :09:42. | |
mindful of is coming from popular push back of antiestablishment | :09:43. | :09:46. | |
itself. Rooster is never a good year. It is a year that has a lot of | :09:47. | :09:52. | |
trouble between family, between companies even between couples. That | :09:53. | :09:58. | |
does not bode particularly well for any of us. I think it is time for me | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
to get my fortune taken for 2017. Take Master Alex. She is a brave | :10:03. | :10:11. | |
woman. That is all from us. We will see you again soon. | :10:12. | :10:16. |