09/10/2013 Y Sgwrs

Welcome back. Wales is burning because of the cuts,

according to one prominent councillor.

The future of our local services, and more, tonight on Y Sgwrs.

It's nice to have your company this evening for the first edition of Y Sgwrs.

Every Wednesday night after Newyddion Naw,

we will be discussing some of the big issues of the day, the week and even sometimes the age.

Our Welsh Affairs Editor, Vaughan Roderick,

will be here with me every week to put the world to rights, along with our guests.

Tonight, we are joined by the actress, Sharon Morgan,

Huw Thomas, a Labour member from Cardiff Council

and from our studio in Swansea, the Conservative Harri Lloyd Davies,

who's also a member of the South Wales Chamber of Commerce.

Welcome to you all. Vaughan, a new programme that an old theme.

Money is scarce and things are going to get worse.

Yes and tonight we will be looking at what's going to happen

as a result of the Government's budget,

especially what's going to happen to local councils in Wales.

They are going to lose something like 9% in real terms

over the next two years. Where will the cuts be?

I will be talking to Carwyn Jones.

I spoke with him earlier today to see where he expects councils to cut back.

That is yet to come, but talking about money

we start with the economy tonight.

Do you see light at the end of this dark tunnel of cuts?

The Chancellor thinks we are turning the corner

and the IMF believes the British economy will grow more than expected.

But do you feel that things are improving?

James Williams has been to hear the views of some people in West Wales.

RADIO: To do more for hard-working people.

..because we have got to tackle the cost of living crisis.

..from the biggest economic crisis in living memory.

There is a long journey before we reach the next general election in 2015.

However, it's pretty obvious that it will be a battle

over the state of the economy.

David Cameron's Conservatives argue that they are getting to grips with the economic problems.

But according to Labour, most people in places like Carmarthen are not seeing any improvement

and increasingly feel that there is less money in their pocket.

On average, people's salaries have dropped

and Britain has seen one of the largest reductions in the European Union.

But what are the experiences of these families here in Carmarthen?

The price of fuel has gone up terribly,

which means that running a car is much more expensive.

Food prices are very expensive

and of course childcare is very expensive.

I have seen a change, especially in the last few years.

The majority of people who bring children here are grandparents

because the parents have to go out and work.

They have been finding it hard.

Many salaries have remained frozen and the increase in price for things

like petrol, food and energy bills has had an affect on many.

During the political conferences over the last few weeks,

there were announcements to try and ease the pain.

We will also see a similar policy announced by Plaid Cymru this weekend as they congregate in Aberystwyth.

The politicians all say they are fighting for the average person.

The boy brings the oil, he puts it in here.

In Nantgaredig, some of the residents are doing their best to reduce their energy bills.

By buying oil jointly, the group makes savings.

Of course we see that people are finding it hard.

I'm fortunate. I was brought up as the son of a miner.

We didn't have much money when I was a child.

So you learn to save money and keep it safe.

If you can't afford it, you don't buy it.

So you adapt to that way have life.

When you do have money, you can't change your way of life.

You still tend to be, I wouldn't say mean,

but you are careful with your money.

Another symptom of the cuts is the increasing gap between those

who own a house and those who want to.

The housing market in the Cardigan area, for example,

has found it tough over the last few years.

I think in this area, what we have seen,

is that parents have helped a lot of first-time buyers

to get into the market.

That pattern continues.

If they try and do it on their own, it is difficult.

But when parents put a deposit down or something like that,

they have the opportunity to buy.

But without that help, it's almost impossible?

Without that help, it is much more difficult.

So although it seems that the engine of the economy has been started and is starting to rumble,

there are still big questions about who will be on the journey and who will be left behind.

Vaughan, it's obvious from the conferences and since then

that this will be the battleground during the next election.

Yes. The middle ground.

If you look at who has suffered during this recession,

many of people on benefits have suffered,

many people on low salaries have suffered.

But they tend to support the Labour Party anyway.

The important ones in the next election will be the people

in the middle, the "squeezed middle", as Ed Miliband calls them.

They have seen their salaries frozen and have seen inflation continue.

The question is, will David Cameron's government be able

to persuade those people that the price was worth paying

and that it will be beneficial in the near future?

That's the question.

Harri Lloyd Davies, how will they do that?

We see George Osborne, a millionaire, David Cameron, a millionaire,

saying we are turning the corner, but people don't feel that.

No, I don't think they'll see a huge improvement for years, if I'm honest.

What David Cameron and George Osborne are doing

is something for the long-term, not the short-term.

We have cut the deficit by a third but we still have two-thirds to go

and we will continue to have difficult times for maybe another five years.

We have to be honest.

We have seen the economy start to turn the corner

but it will still be difficult for everyone for maybe another five years.

Sharon Morgan, can you see things improving?

Are these cuts working? That's the point.

We might see a small improvement in London and the south-east

but there is no evidence that it's having any effect

anywhere else in the country.

The point is, is it a sensible policy in the first place?

Shouldn't we be trying to strengthen the economy

by investing and creating jobs?

The majority of people who support the Tories are wealthy anyway.

But many of those people are suffering in the recession.

The people who run the Tory party

certainly have no idea of what reality is like for most people.

They are millionaires in that cabinet

and this is how they think society should be.

They are not in the business of protecting the man in the street.

But the IMF say things are improving.

They say the British economy could grow

more than any other economy in the world.

What George Osborne said is that we will cut the structural deficit

by 2015 and he has failed.

We will discuss the budget in Wales in a moment

and the reason that budget is so difficult to organise

is because we have to deal with austerity.

Is that the case, or have they not worked as quickly

as George Osborne was hoping?

If we look at the cost of living and wages,

the cost of living has increased by more than wages

for 38 of the 39 months David Cameron has been Prime Minister.

That must tell you everything about their priorities in Westminster.

Ed Miliband has said we need to keep energy prices down.

You said he was intervening in the market.

Is that what David Cameron is doing in the housing market?

I don't think so.

The economy needs to improve for everyone,

not just one sector of society.

It is true that things are taking longer to improve,

but things are improving.

It is going to be a very difficult time.

We want to invest, but where is the money going to come from?

It would mean more tax or more debt.

Neither option would be right at the moment.

At the conference, Ed Miliband described policies

that would improve the standard of living

by getting money from the banks.

We could provide childcare,

provide 25 hours of free childcare for working families.

We will discuss the budget in a moment,

but Labour have said they would

stick to the government spending policies.

The five years of pain is going to come, whoever is in government.

But we need to look at things differently.

For example, freezing fuel prices would help.

What is wrong with taxing these wealthy people?

Is spending more the answer?

We need to raise taxes in order to invest in the economy.

On whom would you raise the taxes?

On people who don't pay them now. Extremely wealthy people.

There aren't many of those in Wales.

Maybe not in Wales.

But across the UK, there are.

Unfortunately, we don't have tax-varying powers in Wales,

therefore, we're forced to discuss this in regards to the UK.

We are dependent upon the situation there.

What is the message you are seeing on the doorstep?

We have to be honest that it is going to take time,

but things are improving.

The important message is that we have been spending more than

we have made in tax for many years and that has to change.

We have to start living within our means,

or things will continue to escalate.

We are dealing with the problem, but we need to finish this job.

We have to ask what sort of society we want to live in.

What about the people who are claiming benefits?

Or those on incredibly low wages?

It is almost impossible. People are going to food banks.

You can't just say this is the policy

and everyone has to suffer in the meantime.

The bonuses of bankers have increased 82%

since 2010 under this government.

That shows me the Tories' priorities.

We have discussed the value of the pound in your pocket,

but what about the quality of your local services?

The councils face endless cuts over the next few years

and, according to one prominent councillor,

it means some will go bust.

Vaughan spoke to the First Minister Carwyn Jones.

Wales is in hot water and no-one in Westminster cares,

according to Russell Goodway.

Local councils are certainly feeling the heat.

With real-term cuts of 9% over the next few years.

The councils say there is no choice but to cut services.

There is no telling which services will be thrown on the bonfire.

Services like road maintenance,

rubbish collection and leisure facilities.

According to some councillors, some councils in Wales could go bust.

But does the First Minister believe those predictions?

It's extremely difficult for local councils

as a result of the cuts they face.

We have tried to help local councils,

although we understand it is very difficult.

We have given them a warning about what is going to happen.

Local councils have had relatively

good settlements over the last few years.

So, warnings of bankruptcy are going too far?

It is important that they assess their situations.

They have to take difficult decisions.

But we can only spend the money we get from Westminster.

Do the people of Wales just have to accept

that some of their services will deteriorate?

Services like leisure centres and libraries.

It is up to local councils to make decisions in their own areas.

But if there is less money,

there is a danger that things will not improve in the future.

There are ways to make sure services can be delivered in different ways.

But you can't sustain the same level of service with these cuts.

No matter how good a council is, it will have to cut back somewhere.

I said it was going to be difficult.

We can't spend money we don't have.

It is true to say that the local authorities

won't be able to promise

the same level of service that they would like.

But as we have been forced to do as a government,

local authorities are going through a system of prioritisation.

Does a bonfire lie ahead?

Huw, you work alongside Russell Goodway.

Will some services be cut as a result of this?

To be honest, I'm not sure.

We will see the details next week.

But it has been a very difficult situation for local councils.

We have got to look at how many local authorities

we can support in Wales.

John Davies suggested there may be seven.

I'm not going to give you a number,

but local councils need to make savings now for the next year.

And reorganisation would be expensive, wouldn't it?

Exactly. We are hoping to set our budget at the same level

as the health boards over a period of two or three years.

It would be extremely difficult to make these savings in one year.

What about services which are dependent on popularity?

There are services in your portfolio of care

where you don't have much control over the demand.

There is increasing demand because people live longer.

The only thing we can do is make sure

we have the most efficient service possible

and that we concentrate on getting people independent again.

Many people say councils will have to employ other people

to run facilities like libraries and entertainment, for example.

Has the big society failed?

We know it will be difficult.

Councils may have to work a little differently to save money

and to make sure they can provide essential services.

We might have to start paying for services in the future.

But the problem we have at the moment

is that the Labour government in Cardiff

have decided to cut a lot of money from the health service,

which has created problems.

They have now got to move more money back into the health service,

which will affect local councils.

The councils don't have any means of borrowing money or raising money.

The Silk Commission has said this is a cross-party issue.

The CBI and the Small Businesses Federation

were promised by the UK government

that it would look at the Silk Commission,

but nothing has happened.

The problem is that the Westminster Government

is going to cut £1.5 billion of its budget.

Wait a moment.

There was a period under Rhodri Morgan's leadership

where there was a real increase in the Welsh budget.

We're going back to where we were a few years ago.

And costs have substantially increased.

If they could raise money,

we could make a significant difference to the economy.

That is what is so frustrating.

The Labour government in Cardiff Bay decided to protect the councils

and now they are moving to health.

Do you recognise that was a mistake?

No. I disagree.

I think we need to acknowledge

that the situation in England is much worse.

And only by safeguarding that money

have we been able to have our current local services.

Thank goodness for devolution!

Thank goodness for a Labour government, I would say.

Both. Also, the support of Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats.

All three parties want to protect the community.

How difficult is it going to get?

Are we going to see bins overflowing and potholes all over our roads?

What is it going to be like?

I don't think it is going to be as bad as people are making out.

We will find our way through it.

I know what you are saying about borrowing money,

but we have received billions of pounds

over the last ten years from Europe to improve the economy.

We have failed with that money,

so I don't think running up more credit is the answer.

Will jobs be lost in local councils?

Russell Goodway predicted 11,000 would be lost.

I don't think any people will go,

but it will be very difficult on some of them

and the Welsh Government might have to step in to help some councils.

I disagree. I think it is inevitable that jobs will be lost.

That is the only place we can go to make these cuts.

People losing their job, or jobs not being filled?

There is a difference.

We have jobs not being filled at the moment.

That is one of the strategies being used

to balance the budget this year.

I don't think local authorities

will be able to avoid job cuts, unfortunately.

What's very sad is the facilities that are being lost,

like libraries and leisure facilities,

which would ease spending on health in the long-term.

Because they create a healthier, happier population

who are also more educated.

We will be losing integral parts of our community

by getting rid of services some people think are not important.

How does this compare with the 1970s?

The situation was different in the 1970s

in the sense that a lot more things were achieved

directly by the government.

Many of the things the government does now, they do a lot less.

We did keep a script in the 1970s and 1980s

ready for the day on which they announced

the local government settlement.

It was in the drawer and the final two sentences were,

"According to the councils, these cuts

"will make a real difference to real services,

"but the government insist it is hard, but fair."

The script was exactly the same each year.

Finally this evening, do politicians have to be aggressive to succeed?

At the start of the week, Michael Moore was sacked

from the coalition cabinet in Westminster.

Alistair Carmichael replaced him,

who has a much more aggressive style.

That is what Downing Street think is needed

as they go head-to-head with Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond

in the referendum on independence.

Merthyr is doing rather better than most parts of...

Doesn't that please you?

Doesn't that please you? Doesn't that please you?

Doesn't it please any of you? Oh, cheer up! Cheer up!

William Hague is relying on

his mealy-mouthed mouthpiece in the front bench at the Assembly.

We spend in Wales, I know it is painful for them,

but if they listen, they might learn something.

Prescott in Prestatyn.

I am sure you have never hit anyone,

but you have to hard in this line of work, don't you?

I'm not sure. I have been accused of being too nice.

Therefore, I don't really agree.

I think you have to be determined and thick-skinned,

but I wouldn't say aggressive.

You have to persuade people to agree with you after all.

Is Miliband aggressive enough? Is that the answer?

I don't think he is at all.

In his speech at the conference,

he came across as a nice person.

Sharon, have you ever played a politician in a drama?

No. There isn't much choice of women, unfortunately.

We're still in the same situation.

-What is someone asked you to play Mrs T?

-No, I don't think so.

I think a Welsh drama with a female Welsh First Minister.

-That would be very good.

-That would be good.

Is this the image that politicians strive for?

You need sensible policies and you need to be able to debate.

When you look at Question Time,

David Dimbleby doesn't give the quieter guests on the panel

an opportunity to have their say.

It has become part of a macho culture.

In the debate on the draft budget,

we saw Andrew RT Davies attacking,

but then Leanne Wood and Kirsty Williams

reached a consensus. Is that the future?

I just think you have to bring your own personality.

The important thing is you stick to what you believe in.

If you do that, it should work.

At the end of the day, it comes down to what works for you

and your personality.

It is clear that they're all afraid of Alex Salmond.

And he is so successful.

He regularly gets what he wants.

He is aggressive, but you have to differentiate

between being aggressive and losing your temper.

I think Ed Miliband is at his most effective in the House of Commons

when David Cameron loses his rag.

A politician can't afford to do that.

If you choose to be aggressive,

you have to do so after thinking clearly about what you're doing.

In terms of Westminster,

the Prime Minister's Questions can be very heated.

It is different in Cardiff Bay.

Yes, it is. It think both styles can be effective.

It was interested to hear today's PMQs

with Ed Miliband making David Cameron

lose his temper again.

One final question for any future politician,

what is the price of a loaf of bread? Huw?

About a pound.

Right. Thank you all very much.

We will be back at the same time next week.

Thanks for your company this evening.

From all of us on the team, good night.

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