18/04/2016 BBC News at Six

The United Kingdom will be permanently poorer,

George Osborne says wages would be lower, prices would be higher

Leave campaigners say the Chancellor's claims are absurd.

There is a price to be paid if we leave,

Where they prophesied gloom in the past,

and we have a great future ahead of us.

The Chancellor's claims are based on Treasury figures.

We'll be asking whether they really do add up.

Also tonight: A girl and a boy - both aged 14 - appear in court

charged with the murder of a mother and daughter in Lincolnshire.

Still searching for survivors in Ecuador, as the death toll rises

significantly after the country's worst earthquake for decades.

The court of appeal lifts a celebrity injunction

in England and Wales, but the individual

And as the Queen approaches her 90th birthday, we look back

Good evening and welcome to the BBC News at Six.

The United Kingdom would be "permanently poorer" if it

That's what the Chancellor, George Osborne, is claiming

after laying out the Treasury's case for staying in.

The Treasury says that if we leave the EU, the economy could be 6%

smaller than projected over the next 15 years.

That's the equivalent, it claims, of ?4,300 a year per household.

The Treasury says you'd need to increase the basic rate

of income tax by 8p to cover the shortfall in public finances.

But Leave campaigners have dismissed the Treasury's analysis,

calling it "deeply flawed", "absurd" and "useless".

Here's our Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg.

The work, the country's wealth, maybe his job as well. Are they all

on the line if we vote to leave the European Union? George Osborne

brought three Cabinet colleagues along to make a big claim this

morning - we would be worse off for ever if we choose to leave. Britain

would be permanently poorer if we left the European Union. Under any

alternative, we would trade less, do less business, there would be less

investment and the price would be paid by British families. Wages

would be lower, prices would be higher, and that means Britain would

be poorer by ?4300 per household. That is ?4300 worse off every year,

a bill paid year after year by the working people of Britain. What he

means is that if we leave, the economy to be 6% smaller than if we

stay. That is the same amount of cash as if each household was more

than ?4000 poorer. And the loss of trade could mean big spending cuts,

or tax rises. But how can he be so sure? In the past, Treasury

forecasts have proven about as reliable as licking your finger and

sticking it in the air to tell you what is going on with the weather.

Can you admit at the very best, this is an educated guess? Our analysis

has been supported by a host of edible independent organisations.

Let's hear from the other side what the planets. Where is the analysis?

Where is the assessment of the costs and benefits of leaving the European

Union? I don't hear anything from them. The audience at this spotless

high-tech gizmo factory in Bristol seemed mainly on site. We are

gaining the facts slowly, and it was nice to have a forum talking about

different aspects. Did you believe the numbers the Chancellor is

putting forward? Well, I will go through it and let you know later.

But will the warnings change anyone's mind in the business park's

Kante? Colleagues Richard and Nicky were not budging. I don't think we

will be poorer, I think we can still survive as a country. We might have

to change our ways. I live in a divided household. I am with

Richard, because I want Britain to have its independence again. We were

self-sufficient a few years ago. But my husband is a net importer and

works in the music industry and he will vote to stay. But for the

Hawkins, the decision is not just down to the cash. I think we have

lost some of our identity, and I would like to get that back. The

Chancellor is making a big statement today about the economic risk, but

do you believe him? No. It might not yet be among every voter and the dog

but there is plenty of enthusiasm among the anti-EU brigade, and they

dismissed the Treasury's numbers. Where they have prophesied gloom in

the past, they have been completely wrong. They were wrong then and they

are wrong now and we have a great future ahead of us. There are many

moving parts in these arguments and there will always be quibbling over

the numbers, but this is one of the biggest moves from the In campaign,

an official warning from a government department that if we

vote to leave, we would be worse off for ever. And ministers believe it

is one of the most powerful tools to persuade undecided voters to choose

to stay. There is nothing automatic about voters believing the

government's case, but it is building, and for both sides, this

campaign is a credibility test as well. Laura Kuenssberg, BBC News,

Bristol. So what are the facts

behind some of the claims laid out in the Treasury

document published today? Our Economics Editor Kamal Ahmed

has this analysis. Predicting the future is not always

easy. Floating cars didn't quite make it, but today the Treasury made

a more serious analysis about what it saw as the economic costs of

leaving the European Union. Billions of pounds in extra taxes and a

smaller economy. The Treasury said its analysis was cautious.

Estimating what will happen in the future is difficult, but the way to

think of these estimates is that whatever happens in the future, if

things are better or worse, if we leave the EU, things will be poorer

than we otherwise would have been. The big claim, that leaving the EU

will cost every family ?4300. That comes from a simple sum of dividing

the National economic impact of billions of pounds of losses the

Treasury claims between the UK's 26.7 million households. It does not

mean any families actually paying out a cheque or directly using

income. The Chaudhry document looks at three scenarios if the UK left

the EU -- the Treasury document. The first - Britain makes a Norway style

deal with the EU and joins the European economic area. The Treasury

says this would be the least bad option, leading to an economy 3.8%

smaller. The second scenario - the Canada option. This is a free trade

wheel between the UK and the EU. That could lead to a UK economy 6.2%

smaller, according to the Treasury. The final option is a World Trade

Organisation agreement, similar to Brazil or Russia. That could lead to

an economy 7.5% smaller. The question is, why would the economy

suffer? The report says leaving the EU would increase trade barriers,

making the UK's products harder to sell in the EU, our largest market.

It also claims it would lead to lower investment as businesses

relocate to the rest of the EU to take advantage of the single market,

and a smaller economy means lower tax income for the government. The

report suggests ?36 billion a year less tax. And to fill that financial

hole, the government says that could mean come taxes going up by 8p. This

long term forecast is just that, a forecast. By 2030, a lot of things

might change, for the better, vote to leave claim. A lower pound could

boost exports and the EU could want a good trade deal with the UK, the

world's fifth-largest economy. In any case, the EU enforces its own

trade barriers. The EU is a protectionist organisation that

raises tariffs and other trade barriers on imports from the rest

raises tariffs and other trade the world. And this raises the price

is that we pay as consumers. the world. And this raises the price

compensated stuff. The report is full of questions about how the

economy would be affected if the UK left the EU. It would only need one

of those equations to be wrong for a very different picture to emerge.

Kamal Ahmed, BBC News. And the BBC's Reality Check team

will be going through the claims in today's document in more detail

on our Reality Check pages. The farmers' union in England

and Wales is meeting to decide on its position

on the EU referendum. Farmers have, historically, received

large benefits from Brussels, but not all farmers are keen

on staying in the EU. Our Environment Correspondent Claire

Marshall is in Kenilworth in Warwickshire, where

the NFU is meeting. Yes, the NFU is the biggest farmers

union in England and Wales and all afternoon, members of its governing

Council have been on their feet, giving impassioned speeches. In the

last few minutes, I have been given a copy of the resolution they have

agreed. It says the interests of farmers, in their view, are best

served by our continuing membership of the European Union.

The animals reared, the crops planted and the subsidy cheques paid

by rules that have their roots in Brussels.

Here in Northern Ireland, reliance on EU farm subsidies

is four times higher than in England.

William Taylor is a livestock farmer in Coleraine.

He believes that the EU is the only way that farmers will ever be able

to get a better price from supermarkets for their produce.

At the minute, we have found a way forward in which farmers can get

properly rewarded for their work, and that involves legislation

So in effect, for us to stay in Europe is the difference

between our farm being able to survive

The Ulster Farmers' Union says it will not tell

NFU Scotland has declared in favour of Remain.

And in Wales, early indications are that NFU members also

So let's have a look at some of the figures about this.

Some 40% of the EU's budget goes on supporting farmers.

In many cases, this can make up half of a farm's income.

If we look at exports from the food and agricultural

processing industry, 60% goes to the EU.

Farmers who backed leaving the EU say the

Farmers who backed leaving the EU by European red tape.

Colin Rayner farms 2,500 acres beneath the Heathrow flight path.

Each year, we lose a bit more of our sovereignty.

We don't seem to have any control over what is happening on our farms.

I want people managing my farms to be in London, not in Brussels.

of the ministry in charge can't decide.

Secretary of State Liz Truss, Remain,

Farming Minister George Eustice, Leave.

One is the level of public subsidy that might be payable after Brexit.

The second is the sort of trade regime we might end up with,

both with the EU and with 50-odd countries around the world,

all of which will have to be renegotiated.

So would the uncertainty be worth it, or can farms only

Claire Marshall, BBC News, in Warwickshire.

A boy and girl, aged 14, have appeared in court charged

with murdering a woman and her teenage daughter

Liz and Katie Edwards were found dead at their home

Our correspondent Danny Savage was in court.

What were the events which led to the deaths

Two children are accused of murdering 49-year-old Liz Edwards

Police want to hear from anyone who observed any comings and goings

from their home in Spalding between Wednesday lunchtime

and Friday afternoon, when the bodies were discovered.

The school is absolutely devastated, and the total neighbourhood.

I think everybody is just gobsmacked, just speechless, really.

People here have been left shocked that two teenagers have

been charged with murder after what happened here.

The two 14-year-olds appeared here

at Lincoln Crown Court this afternoon.

The boy and girl were flanked by security guards and spoke

They were remanded into secure youth accommodation,

and a provisional trial date was set for October.

The two teenagers were transported in separate cars

Because of their age, they cannot be publicly identified.

people have continued to leave messages and tributes

Danny Savage, BBC News, Lincolnshire.

The worlds of comedy and entertainment have been

paying their respects to Ronnie Corbett at his

The 85-year-old died last month, having been diagnosed

with a suspected form of motor neurone disease.

The service was attended by family and friends

Sir Michael Parkinson, Harry Hill, Rob Brydon and David Walliams

At least 350 people are now known to have died in Ecuador's worst

earthquake for decades, amid warnings that the death toll

Rescue teams have flown in to help in the search for survivors.

Thousands of people have been injured.

The quake of 7.8 magnitude struck on Saturday evening,

about 100 miles north west of the capital Quito,

One town on the coast completely collapsed, according to its mayor.

Our correspondent Paul Adams reports.

In Pedernales on Ecuador's battered coast, the search for survivors

Much of this town of 50,000 people has been reduced to rubble.

The death toll is rising and there are still long

Rescue workers call out in the darkness,

demanding absolute silence, listening for

In Portoviejo, further south, survivors slept out in the open.

With so many homes damaged and scores of after-shocks already

recorded, people are too afraid to go indoors.

Among the dead, Clare Theresa Crockett, a nun

from Northern Ireland, killed with five others

when a stairwell collapsed in the school where she was teaching.

This was the moment late on Saturday that the earthquake struck.

A supermarket in the capital Quito, 100 miles from the

epicentre, shaking before being plunged into darkness.

In the worst affected areas, whole streets have collapsed.

TRANSLATION: It's been horrible, horrible, I can't describe it.

The only thing I can say is that we are alive.

We are asking passers by to give us water so at least we can survive.

This was Ecuador's worst earthquake in decades.

The Chancellor has unveiled a Treasury report suggesting

Britain would be "permanently poorer if it leaves the European Union".

And still to come: How these Yorkshire terriers

landed two Hollywood stars in court in Australia.

Things go from bad to worse at Aston Villa.

David Bernstein and Mervyn King resign from their new three-person

board, citing their positions as untenable.

On Thursday, the Queen will celebrate her 90th

She is already Britain's oldest and longest reigning monarch.

In the first in a series of reports this week,

our Royal Correspondent Nicholas Witchell considers

the driving principles which have marked her reign.

It has been a long life, devoted to service.

She was ten when she discovered that one day she would be Queen.

Through the Second World War and the years that followed, she

watched and learned from her father, King George VI.

His death in 1952 placed Elizabeth on the throne at

The ancient rituals of coronation, the swearing of the

coronation oath, her anointment with holy oil and her

There are parallels, churchmen say, between the qualities

required of a monarch and those of a priest.

I think when she was as it were called to this office when her

father died, I think from that sprang her

awareness that she had to

serve her people, which she said in her opening words,

"I'm here to serve you," and she's done so, some people

say it in a priestly fashion, I would certainly say it springs

from her Christian values, her sense of

She was there as a golden thread running

Now, on the threshold of her 90th birthday, has

there been any change in the Queen's capacity to continue?

Her first cousin Margaret Rhodes says there has

So far she has shown no sign of wilting in the job.

She is asking other members of family to step in and do a lot of

You know it's something that is happening gradually and almost

And to the inevitable question might the Queen retire and

hand the throne to Prince Charles there is an emphatic answer.

She has made it perfectly plain that through

age there is no possibilty of her abdicating in favour of her

But she feels that she was, I think she feels that she

The vows she made on her coronation were ones that she wants

She is Elizabeth II, a monarch sustained by duty.

There is one thing about which we can be certain

and it is this - even at the age of very nearly 90, the Queen's

commitment to her role as monarch remains atds does she constant and

The Court of Appeal says an injunction which banned the media

from printing details of a celebrity's private

The Sun on Sunday had challenged the order after the information was

Our media correspondent David Sillito is outside

The court says it should be lifted, but we still can't

Absolutely. Lifted but not yet. This will almost certainly go to the

Supreme Court. Why does this matter? In court it was described as a

battle between the rule of law versus the rule of the press. What's

changed as the information has got out in places where the injunction

has no force, Scotland, America, the internet and the judges sail, well

this means the legal landscape has changed and many say if it is lifted

because of this we have a recipe that would undermine any celebrity

injunction, a ma swror shift in the law of privacy. Thank you.

A brief look at some of the day's other other news stories.

The First and Deputy First Ministers of Northern Ireland have jointly

condemned the murder of a father of four in North Belfast

Michael McGibbon was shot three times in the leg in an alleyway

in the Ardoyne area, and died from his injuries.

A man arrested in connection with the killing is understood to be

Eight people have been arrested after Greenpeace activists scaled

Nelson's column in London. They were alighted what they called dangerous

and illegal air pollution levels in the capital.

The FA have charged Leicester City's leading goalscorer Jamie Vardy

with improper conduct following his reaction

to being sent off in yesterday's game against West Ham.

It means the striker's one-match ban could be extended.

His team are eight points clear at the top of the Premier League

Pistol and Boo are two Yorkshire terriers that belong to the actors

Johnny Depp and Amber Heard. They were accused of smuggling them into

Australia. The Hollywood stars got in a lot of trouble and today they

appeared in court and appal jiezed. -- apologised.

A little bit of Hollywood in Queensland Australia.

Amber Heard back to defend herself in a case

It dates back to May last year when the

couple were staying at this Gold Coast villa

With them their two pet Yorkshire terriers - Pistol and Boo.

The dogs had first been spotted at this local

It wasn't long before Amber Heard was charged with

illegally importing the hounds - a crime with a maximum penalty

Australia's free of many pests and diseases that are commonplace

around the world and it is why Australia

has had to have such strong biosecurity laws.

Australians are just as unique - both warm and direct.

If you disrespect Australian law, they will tell you firmly.

I'm truly sorry that Pistol and Boo were

Declare everything when you enter Australia.

In the end, the Hollywood couple left court with

Amber Heard having been sentenced to just a month's probation.

The more serious charges were dropped after

Miss Heard agreed to plead guilty to filling in her

For Amber Heard, no conviction and no fine and some

people will be wondering whether this case

was worth all the fuss and

indeed the expense of bringing it to court.

Time for a look at the weather. Here's Darren Bett.

We are looking forward to the dog days of summer of course, but it

felt chilly today. There has been some sunshine. This is the scene in

Lossiemouth in Scotland and at the other end and Guernsey, lovely

sunshine here. We have had the best of the sunshine top and tail of the

country. In between a stripe of cloud giving some rain. We have had

windy conditions in Scotland and showers too. The winds will drop and

clearer skies extend down to East Anglia. But more cloud in southern

England and Wales. So not so chilly. Where we have the clearer skies it

could be cold enough for frost. A chilly start but sunshine. We should

break up the cloud across the south-east of England. Maybe some

cloud in the south-west and Wales. Temperatures on the whole higher

than today. 15 in London. It should feel warmer in Scotland, because it

won't be as windy. High pressure is in charge and id is building and

thinning the cloud, breaking it up across the north-west a weak weather

front. In the south-west more isobars, showing some stronger

winds. Some cloud and some rain in the north-west. Elsewhere little

cloud on Wednesday. It will be sunny and should feel warmer, temperatures

up to 15 degrees. With the high pressure around, little or no rain.

It will get warmer around the middle of the week. The 90ings still

chilly. -- the nights still chilly. But through Friday and for the

weekend we open the door to northerly winds blowing down more

Arctic air, dropping the temperatures and bringing sunshine,

but also a few wintry showerses. Our main story: The Chancellor has

unveiled a suggesting the UK would be poorer if it leave temperatures

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