23/11/2017 BBC News at Six

A bleak outlook for the economy

amid warnings that the UK is facing

an unprecedented squeeze on living

standards.

Feeling the pinch -

an independent economic think tank

says the continuing pressure

on wages in Britain

is truly astonishing.

It looks like we've got at least

another five years to go before

we get anywhere near to having

earnings back where

they were in 2008.

That is wholly unprecedented,

certainly the worst since

the mid-19th century.

But the Prime Minister has defended

yesterday's budget insisting

the government recognises

the pressure on families.

The housekeeping money now,

I'm spending the same for two of us

as I was when there was a family

of five living at home.

I have to budget.

I mean I have to go into shops

when they're doing their mark-down

prices on their food.

We'll be looking at what's

behind the sharp fall

in economic forecasts.

Also on the programme tonight.

Heavy rain brings flooding

in the north - more than 70 people

had to be rescued from their homes.

A deal means that thousands of

Rohingya Muslims who fled Bangladesh

may be able to return home to

Myanmar.

Do headers harm your health?

Thousands of former professional

footballers are taking part

in a study to find out the long-term

impact.

The 70th Ashes series is under way

in Australia with England so far

doing better than many expected.

And coming up on Sportsday,

all change in England's

rugby union team.

Captain Dylan Hartley

is on the bench for the first time

under head coach Eddie Jones.

Good evening and welcome

to the BBC News at Six.

The UK is in danger of losing almost

20 years of growth in earnings -

that's the stark warning

from the Institute of Fiscal Studies

after yesterday's budget.

The independent think-tank says

the squeeze on living standards

in the past ten years

is unprecedented and warned

that the economic outlook is "grim".

It says there's no imminent end

to austerity and government

borrowing is now expected to rise

for another fifty years.

-- decades.

The Chancellor, Philip Hammond,

said he hoped to prove the forecasts

wrong and insisted his Budget

yesterday was a package for families

feeling the pressure.

Our economics editor

Kamal Ahmed reports

It can all seem distant. The

Treasury, the government department

that publishes the budget but what

this grand office of state says

matters for all of us today it

became clear why. The budget's major

growth downgrade reveals the amount

we earn has not increased in a

decade and however hard we work and

however far we travel and stagnant

wages could be with this into the

next decade. Out shopping in Essex,

Adele and her daughter Emily. It is

a struggle making ends meet.

I have

been working years have not had a

pay rise and I now have a child.

Everything else is gone up, food has

gone up. We are constantly getting

told this and that is going up but

nothing else is going up with it.

I

asked the head of the Institute for

Fiscal Studies why it mattered.

Economic forecasts may not sound

important but when they meet your

earnings and living standards will

be lower than expected it is time to

listen. Earnings in the early 2020s

will be below where they were in

2008, making it the worst decade for

living standards in living memory

and a long time before that.

The

Prime Minister visiting a college

for trainee builders. She knows she

has to convince people like Adele

she is on her side.

The Chancellor

and I agree the budget was about

jobs for people up and down the

country, ensuring people are in work

with income for their family and

building the homes they need and

ensuring we seize opportunities for

the future.

The effort to seize

opportunities of the future has to

overcome a major hurdle, the living

standards squeeze. At the time of

the financial crisis average

earnings were £24,500 and fell

sharply as the financial crisis bit.

Look how slow the recovery has been.

Even by 2022 people will earn less

on average than ten years ago. That

is the key question, why aren't real

incomes rising? There are a number

of answers. The governments of many

decades of whichever party have

failed to invest in the things that

matter, like other skills. The

financial crisis that sucked so much

money out of the financial system

and the businesses themselves. Some

of which seem to prefer to rely on

cheap labour, rather than investing

in machinery that would make them

more efficient and their employees

wealthier. For the government

opponents, there are those

deep-seated economic problems.

It is

those delivering key services,

nurses, midwives, firefighters,

teachers, who are worse off than

they were a decade ago. There is

nothing here that can be considered

remotely strong.

People have been

helped the Tories say with record

employment levels and higher living

wage. Tonight the government was

putting the finishing touches to the

next effort at boosting the economy.

The industrial strategy. Stand-by

for that week.

The Chancellor insists his Budget

will address Britain's problems

with productivity despite the gloomy

forecasts for economic growth.

But low productivity is one

of the biggest factors behind

the poor outlook for growth.

Our Business Editor Simon Jack

considers what's been going wrong.

It is the word of the week, baby the

decade. It means the value of work

done per worker per hour and if it

goes up the economy grows and so do

pay and living standards. When it

doesn't, they don't. Right now, it

isn't. When people hear our

productivity is low and some wonder

if workers are being accused of

being lazy but it is not that, I

could be the best typist and hardest

working person but there would be a

limit to how ministers I could

write. To really get things done and

be more productive, I need one of

these. It is a problem Britain's

biggest companies recognise.

The

data suggests we have a productivity

problem and it has flat lined the

last few years. Everybody recognises

that. I think both and indeed

education in general, we all have a

stake in making that and fixing

that.

The government answer has been

to get big companies like BT to pay

half a per cent of their wage bill

into an apprenticeship kitty that

smaller companies can use. The

latest figures show it is not

working. This time last year 117,000

people started an apprenticeship and

the same time this year the number

was only 68,000, a fall of 59%.

What

is going wrong? The implementation

of the policy has been diabolical

with an inflexible approach to

training, a 10% charge to employers

when they had it for free and the

procurement process, all three have

caused problems which is why the

numbers have fallen.

The problem

does not seem to be demand from

apprentices themselves.

My mum

always wanted me to go to university

but I tell her it does not give you

the best thing ever, so going to

university gives you a degree which

is good, but doing an

apprenticeship, you are paid, get a

better opportunity, learn skills and

meet new people.

If we are to tackle

the productivity puzzle we need an

increase in training which means

getting people doing apprenticeships

in the right areas and industries.

It is one of the top three issues

members tell us they want solved.

The government said it remains

committed to providing 3 million

apprenticeships by 2020. To hit the

target, the plan may need a rewrite.

Joining me from Westminster, is our

political editor Laura Kuenssberg.

The forecasts are grim but is the

Chancellor hoping more clarity on

Brexit could change that?

Looking at

what we have learned there is not

much for him to be cheery about with

the Tories' original economic plans

years off and the picture in the

next few years looking glum. In the

background there are questions over

Brexit, will it have a good or bad

effect? They hover over everything

in Westminster. In the political

scores, ministers felt there were

two big things to get right before

Christmas after a bad summer and

autumn for the Tories and the first

was to get through a budget

unscathed and the second to persuade

the rest of the EU to talk about

business in the future and a really

critical summit meeting that will

take place just before Christmas. In

the last 24 hours they feel in

government they have achieved the

first task, not that they have

sorted out all the economic

problems, but they have got through

a huge day like the budget and

avoided banana skins. The second

part, that is a huge job of work to

be done. Theresa May goes to

Brussels tomorrow to press the flesh

and dangle a new and improved

financial offer, a hypothetical

check will be put on the table to

try to persuade the Brussels

establishment and the 27 other

countries that by Christmas the UK

and everyone else can agree it is

time to talk about the future. That

is a huge and vital pressure for the

Prime Minister, and compared to

getting through a budget without big

mistakes it might feel a lot harder.

Thank you.

Dozens of people had to be rescued

from their homes in parts of Cumbria

and Lancashire last night

after heavy rainfall

caused flooding.

More than 70 people were helped

to safety after the emergency

services received hundreds of calls.

A number of flood warnings

are still in place.

Our correspondent Danny Savage

is in the village of

Galgate in Lancashire.

This time last night the rain was

falling hard and water levels were

rising, soon to flood out properties

behind me. The water has gone and

the hope is that the colder, drier

weather moving in will hang around

and allow water levels in rivers and

the ground to drop off

significantly. The worry in the

long-term is that this is the start

another long, wet winter.

What do you think?

This isn't the sound a mixing desk

is supposed to make.

This recording studio at the back

of a house in Galgate in Lancaster

has been ruined by the flooding,

its owners caught out

by the rapid rise of the water.

My husband has a studio

at the back of the house

where he does his music.

The warning was the people

on the street going,

we need some help.

The conditions around here last

night were dreadful.

There came a point when we

were bucketing it out,

bailing it out we had pumps going.

There came a point where it was

bucket versus river and the river

won and it is now like this.

So I have lifted as much as I can

from the ground floor,

but there are bikes down there,

my cooker has gone, my boiler,

my washing machine,

my dishwasher, everything.

Further north in Cumbria,

the heavy rain closed roads and sent

floodwater creeping towards homes.

The worst of it was kept out

by the Fire Service.

Travellers on the West Coast

Mainline faced long delays

as the tracks north of Preston

disappeared under water.

Passengers were put on buses.

North Wales was hit, too,

with Anglesey the worst affected.

It is just unbelievable.

I have never seen anything

like it in my life.

And I've been brought up here

and it was just, well, shocking.

Back in Galgate, the Fire

Brigade were pumping out

the cellar of the New Inn.

I'm totally distraught.

I don't think that I can actually

continue with this now.

With your business?

Yeah.

The landlord believes he has

lost his livelihood.

The cellar is flooded,

the kitchen is gone.

All my food stock has gone.

All the fridges and freezers

are turned upside down.

What can I do?

What it highlights is there

are lots of communities in this part

of Britain that are vulnerable

to flooding when you get those

periods of heavy rain

in a short space of time.

The water has receded,

but people will be staring anxiously

at the skies for some time yet.

Danny Savage, BBC News, Lancashire.

The Argentine Navy now says it

detected a sound which it suspects

was an explosion around the time

contact was lost with a submarine

in the south Atlantic.

The San Juan, which had

a crew of 44 on board,

disappeared last Wednesday.

More than a dozen nations

including the United States,

Britain and Russia have been

searching for the vessel.

One of the killers of the toddler

James Bulger is back in prison

while police investigate

the discovery of suspected child

abuse images on a computer.

Jon Venables, who was ten

he killed the little boy

with Robert Thompson in 1993,

was freed on licence in 2001.

The jury at the trial of an Army

sergeant accused of trying

to murder his wife by tampering

with her parachute has been

discharged, after failing

to reach verdicts.

Emile Cilliers - seen

here with his wife Victoria -

had denied all charges.

The court had been

sitting for seven weeks.

The Crown Prosecution Service says

it will seek a retrial.

The physical and mental health

of around 15,000 former

professional footballers

is going to be studied

by researchers who are trying

to determine the long-term impact

of heading a football.

The FA and the Professional

Footballers' Association have

commissioned the research

amid growing concern

about the long-term effect that

contact sport can have on the brain.

Our Sports Editor Dan Roan reports.

Heading the ball has been a part

of football since the game was

invented, but in recent years

there's been mounting concern over

the danger it could pose to players'

long-term health, and today the FA

announced it'd finally commissioned

a landmark study into links between

football and dementia.

The expert leading

the research telling me just

how significant it is.

We're going to be as thorough as we

can possibly be.

We're looking at in excess of 15,000

former footballers an

matching them to somewhere around

45,000 population control.

So we get a good sense

of what their numbers

look like against what we would

expect from the population.

COMMENTATOR:

Nodding it on.

15 years ago, a coroner

ruled that former

England striker, Jeff Astle, died

aged 59 as a result of industrial

disease, dementia caused by repeated

heading had contributed

to the cause of death.

One of hundreds of players diagnosed

with degenerative brain

conditions after retirement,

Astle's family have

been at the heart of

the

campaign demanding the sports

authorities honour their duty of

care to former professionals.

The FA have a responsibility

across the

game in its entirety.

The PFA are there

for player welfare.

But, yes, they are doing it,

but I still believe they've been

cornered into this.

They've been cornered

into doing the research.

It's something that's

not going to go away.

Former England captain

Alan Shearer, still the Premier

League's leading goal scorer

and a player renowned

for his heading, highlighted

the issue in a recent

BBC documentary undergoing a series

of medical tests on his own brain.

I'm pleased that eventually the

authorities have listened and are

now going to do the research that

should have been done years ago.

We can't look back unfortunately,

we can only look forward now and

support Willie and his team and,

hopefully, they will be able to

start and get some answers now.

Today, the FA said it felt compelled

to conduct what it vowed would be

one of the most comprehensive

studies ever into this issue.

Further proof that it must now

address one of the greatest

challenges facing its future, both

in the professional ranks and at the

grass-roots.

Despite the obvious health

benefits for children who

play sport there are calls for

heading to be banned for under 11s

until the health risks

are better understood.

Football's not alone.

Rugby has had to change its rules

over the assessment

of head injuries.

American football's

concussion crisis

meanwhile has

resulted in £1 billion

settlement

after former players

sewed the NFL

over brain disease.

Our top story this evening.

A bleak outlook for the economy

amid warnings that the UK is facing

an unprecedented squeeze

on living standards.

And still to come...

We'll have some good

news for coffee lovers.

Coming up on Sportsday on BBC News.

England's Ashes debutants

star on day one.

We will have all the reaction

from Brisbane, plus a look

ahead to the second day's play.

The plight of the Rohingya Muslims

has been called the world's fastest

growing humanitarian crisis.

Since August more than

600,000 Rohingyas have

fled their homes in Myanmar

after a military crackdown,

crossing the border

into neighbouring Bangladesh.

They've been living in vast

makeshift refugee camps.

But now thousands may

be able to return home

after a deal was signed

between the two countries.

However, aid agencies

say their safety must be guaranteed.

Reeta Chakrabarti reports

from Cox's Bazaar in Bangladesh.

A mass of humanity has made its home

here, a city made up

entirely of people who fled.

They arrived with stories

of being shot at and raped

and their children being killed.

Would they, could they

return to Myanmar?

TRANSLATION:

We won't go back.

We were brutally tortured.

Young men were put in prison

and houses were set on fire.

Rashida and her husband lost

someone they escaped.

Rashida and her husband lost

a son when they escaped.

Here, at his grave,

Rashida breaks down.

We saw her with her

son two months ago.

The 15-year-old had

trodden on a landmine laid

in Myanmar at the border

where they cross to Bangladesh.

Two days after these pictures

were filmed, he died.

Then, she told us, she could not

bear even to say the word Myanmar.

Here, in the cramped shelter

she shares with her husband and six

other family members,

Rashida says she will not return.

TRANSLATION:

Our hearts

were broken in Myanmar.

What does pain mean?

I had two sons injured in Myanmar.

Will we get peace there?

If everybody goes back, we will.

But our hearts don't tell us to go

back, they don't, they don't.

But according to the agreement

between Bangladesh and Myanmar,

some of these people could start

to return in just two months' time.

Yet there are no details of how

their safety will be guaranteed,

nor of any international monitoring,

making observers cautious.

One thing is for sure,

for refugees to be able

to exercise their fundamental right

to return home, the conditions that

made them free in the first place

need to be meaningfully addressed.

Refugees need to be able to decide

voluntarily to return in a safe

and dignified manner.

Bangladesh has been under

immense strain with this

huge influx of refugees,

so it is understandably keen to find

a deal for their return.

Myanmar's motives are less clear,

but the country will be under

the spotlight next week with a visit

from the Pope.

Without cast-iron guarantees

for the Rohingyas safety,

many will have serious doubts

about today's announcement.

The former Labour minister

Ivan Lewis has been suspended

by the party while allegations

of inappropriate behaviour

are investigated.

Mr Lewis denies any wrongdoing

or non-consensual behaviour

but says he's sorry if he has made

women who work with

him feel awkward.

New rules are being introduced

to stop internet providers

making misleading claims

about their broadband packages.

From May, companies will only be

allowed to advertise a top speed

if at least half of their customers

can access it at peak times.

There's some good news

for coffee drinkers.

A review published in

the British Medical Journal suggest

drinking three or four cups a day

may lower the risk of liver disease,

some cancers and the likelihood

of developing heart problems.

However, public health experts say

there is still uncertainty

about the impact of drinking

more than that.

Sima Kotecha reports

from Birmingham.

An espresso, a cappuccino

or just instant.

More than 50 million cups of coffee

are drunk every day here in the UK

and today there's another

debate about whether it's

good or bad for you.

It's after a review has suggested

drinking moderate amounts of coffee

is more likely to benefit health

than cause it harm.

I think I enjoy the smell of it

mostly, which makes me sort of feel

- especially when you're

in a country like

Italy or something,

waking up in the morning smelling

coffee, it just makes me,

I don't know, I really love it.

I think it's probably

a placebo effect.

You feel sort of energised

by having drunk it.

It gives me a bit of a kick

is the main thing and,

the different blends,

you can slightly taste

different things.

Sometimes they're chocolatey,

sometimes they're fruity.

The University of Southampton went

through 200 studies looking at how

coffee affects the body,

and concluded three or four cups

of it a day could lead to a lower

risk of developing health problems.

However, it also said too much of it

while pregnant can be dangerous.

In some cases, a small amount

of coffee can cause anxiety,

and there are studies that suggest

children, adolescents

and the elderly are particularly

vulnerable to the adverse

effects of caffeine.

It gives me kind of...

It brings my anxiety

levels up a bit.

My gears are always grinding

and I think sometimes I can

have a caffeine overload,

so I try to stay away from it

as much as when I was younger

when I worked in construction.

I was drinking it, you know,

nonstop all the time.

Critics say the finding of this

particular review could be skewed

because those evaluated may have

been healthy before

starting to drink coffee.

I tend to ignore this kind of advice

because from one day to the next it

tends to differ, so I wouldn't be

surprised if in a week or two we got

some other report saying that coffee

is bad for you after all.

But I guess everything

in moderation.

Researchers are now calling

for rigorous clinical trials

to explore the drink's effects.

And a last bit of advice

from them - opt for milk

with your coffee rather than cream.

Sima Kotecha, BBC News, Birmingham.

Cricket - the 70th Ashes Test series

is under way in Australia

with England looking to defend

the urn they won in 2015.

But Australia, who beat England 5-0

when they last played down under,

are the favourites to win this time.

Our sports correspondent Andy Swiss

sent this report from Brisbane.

It is almost a national hobby.

Beating England is what Australia

have done so often here

and their fans flocked

to the stadium with the confidence

to match the visitors' caution.

Without Ben Stokes, England's

low-key line-up began as the Ashes

underdogs, and after opting to bat,

it didn't take long to see why.

Mitchell Starc snaring

Alastair Cook for just two.

Australia's pace man pounding in.

The verbal bouncers flying.

But instead of a

collapse, a comeback.

Not many expected James Vince to be

picked for this tour,

but he set about showing why.

The hosts' much hyped attack looking

toothless, until this.

Stoneman emphatically bowled

by Pat Cummins for 53,

before a moment of brilliance

in the field from Nathan Lyon.

After his pre-Ashes fighting talk,

some way to back it up.

Vince ran out for 83

and suddenly the pendulum had

veered Australia's way.

Joe Root surviving an LBW

decision, but not for long.

The review showed he was out,

the skipper gone for 15.

Before a few morale-boosting blows

from Moeen Ali helped guide England

through to the close.

For the fans, then, a first day

of fluctuating fortunes.

England's impressive start followed

by Australia's late resurgence.

The early signs suggest this

could be a competitive series.

An absorbing start to the Ashes,

then, but England know the hard work

has only just begun.

Andy Swiss, BBC News, Brisbane.

Time for a look at the weather.

Here is Tomasz Schafernaker and the

cold weather coming back again?

It certainly is and it's going to

stay cold until the end of the month

so chilly for all of us, right down

stay cold until the end of the month

so chilly for all of us, right down

towards the south coast. It's

already been turning colder through

the day and the temperatures were

dropping through the day such is the

extent of the chilly weather coming

in. A dip in the jet stream here and

this is what it will look like for

the next few days, in this cold

spell of weather right now. We have

had some weather front in the last

24 hours, dreadful weather across

the north of the UK with heavy rain

across Lancashire and Cumbria but

the worst of that has cleared away.

There is some rain across the

south-west tonight, clipping the

south coast but it will be just

through the night so by the time we

get to around six in the morning,

that rain should be clearing away.

Many waking up to dry weather in the

morning, and a lot of clear whether

around with crisp sunshine on the

way. In the far north of the

country, western Scotland and maybe

Northern Ireland too, there will be

showers coming in. For many of us it

will be a bright if not sunny crisp

sort of day, and these temperatures

7-9d only briefly in the afternoon,

colder than that for the most of the

day. On Saturday these

north-westerly winds will bring

showers to Scotland and parts of

north-west England and Ireland.

Again, a frosty start, crisp

sunshine,