06/05/2016 BBC Wales Today

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Labour is once again the biggest party, with 29 seats.

will they go it alone or seek support from another party?

Plaid Cymru replaces the Conservatives in second place,

but fails to make the wider breakthrough across

No-one could possibly describe this Welsh election that way -

Were we distracted by other political blockbusters?

Or is it because our electoral system delivers

You can answer your door again now. It's all over.

When the door bells rings, its won't be one of them canvassing.

Elections are battles of ideas. A war of words.

But ultimately, it's numbers that count.

And they show Labour is once again the biggest

party in the Senedd, with 29 seats.

The Conservatives just behind, on 11.

The new kids on the block, Ukip, won 7 - their first ever

The numbers don't tell the whole story, though.

Scratch beneath the surface and there are questions

Labour's share of the vote has fallen again -

astonishingly so in constituencies like Blaenau Gwent and Rhondda.

Leanne Wood might have won there, but her party, Plaid Cymru,

couldn't win enough hearts and minds to secure the national

The Conservatives failed to build on last year's strong

General Election showing, while the Lib Dems Christmas party

will be a quiet affair - there's just one of them.

Bouyant tonight, but some wonder if they'll last the course.

Let's start with Labour and Roger Pinney.

For almost a century, the party has shaped

And in the Assembly, Labour has governed for every one of the

Today, that remarkable run is extended, but Labour

I've had a range of phone calls actually just before we came on air.

Pretty nervous about a number of the marginal seats that we've

That sentiment was picked up by many of us watching

This election has been different for Labour.

Speak to candidates, to party workers, and they will tell

you they've had a real fight on their hands,

even in seats, where traditionally they've won comfortably.

Here in North East Wales, for example, there is

In Wrexham, Lesley Griffiths was defending a healthy

She won again, but with a swing against her.

It's been hard, it's been hard.

We always said this was going to be our toughest election,

because we've been in power for 17 years and you will have

heard our opposition parties say it's time for change.

Well, it's not something that you just get.

You have to earn every vote and I've been very happy to go out there,

tell the Welsh Labour story and earn those votes.

And for Wrexham read Vale of Clwyd, where the Conservatives won

And in Deeside, Delyn, all seats Labour held again this time,

They go into the Assembly with 29 seats, just one down on last time.

Tory challengers in places like Cardiff North and

Not bad it appears for a party in government for 17 years.

But look at Labour's overall share of the vote.

Even in the South Wales valleys, Labour found itself in a battle.

Here, there was the biggest shock of the night, in Rhondda.

Leighton Andrews' 6000 majority was swept aside

It wasn't something that we saw coming.

There was no indication of it on the ground, so we will need

to look very carefully at what happened in the Rhondda

in order to put ourselves in a position of being able to win

But we are happy with the fact that we held off a Conservative

The pattern was repeated across Labour's heartland.

was defending a 10,000 vote majority.

He won by just 650, a massive swing to Plaid.

even the exit poll on the day, predicted.

And of course, the uncertainties and unpredictability of politics

was never better shown than in the Welsh elections,

where Labour did very well to win all the key marginals and then goes

Well, Labour remains the dominant force in Wales.

It's proved resilient, delivered the votes

But the party has been in a real fight.

A better night than Labour could Nick Servini, at the Senedd.

A better night than Labour could have expected but their share of the

vote fell by more than 7%, which must be a cause for concern? That's

right but this was a big result for Labour. Putting it into context at a

time when there is a lot of criticism about the UK leader,

Jeremy Corbyn, wipe-out in Scotland, and intense criticism about the

state of the NHS during the past five years. As Rhodri Morgan pointed

out, the Rhondda was lost, but in all of the marginal seats, up

against the Conservatives, a real battle ground in this election,

successfully holding off that threat. Was it good strategy or were

they lucky? Probably both. But when a stroke of luck came their way,

such as the junior doctors strike in England, which helped London

criticism of the NHS in Wales, they were in a position to take

advantage, which is what they did. Do you think Carwyn Jones will go it

alone or chase some sort of coalition? Kept his options open,

when you spoke with them earlier this evening. This the reality is,

despite having 29 votes, just one below we have they have been for the

past five years, no overall majority, they will need support

from Plaid Cymru to get budgets and policies through. I'm sure they will

find many areas of agreement on, social policy, economic development,

but legacy projects that are hugely divisive, university tuition fees,

the reorganisation of local authorities, these subject split

these two parties and it will take all sorts of negotiating skills to

find a way through it but it will be led by a Labour Party that believes

it has a mandate to do so after the past 24 hours.

Thanks, Nick. Back with you later.

Meet Labour's new Assembly Member for Ogmore -

Good evening and congratulations, looking at this fall in the share of

the vote, it really is astonishing, 27% decline in Rhondda, and big

East, Leighton Andrews, going, significant falls. Yes, but going

back to what Nick Serveni was saying, and your report, all of the

seats that mattered, apart from the Rhondda, which was a big blow, and

even the detractors of Leighton Andrews believed he was skilled and

capable. But the squeeze is the issue and the message is there is

confidence and I way for the Labour Party to get on and do what it had

in its manifesto and also seeing to the Labour Party, and to Carwyn

Jones at myself, do not be complacent, get on and deliver, we

want to see that five years of real delivery on the ground. This 29

seats held is a significant achievement for the Labour Party.

Absolutely, 24% decline in Blaenau Gwent, the historic constituency of

Nye Bevan and Michael Foot. Welsh people have been down the decades

very sadly politically, sending is messages before, and that message

has always been one of we do actually trust Labour, believe they

are the party that will deal compassionately with big social and

economic issues, but also send the message which says, get on with it

and do it and do it well, effectively, deliver change on the

ground you have spoken about. But coming back to the point, people

said we were in meltdown, that we would win 23, 24 seed, it is a huge

privilege to be the member for Ogmore tonight. Even with the

shrunken vote, to get on with the job, it is a privilege. I thought

Jeremy Corbyn would attract this illusion voters in the valleys, but

that did not seem to work? The whole foot bridge of this election for

Labour was not on Jeremy Corbyn and UK politics. -- the whole focus. If

it is to do with leadership, it is Carwyn Jones. If it is policies, it

is Welsh Labour policies. On the doorstep, one of the changes I have

seen these people understood that. Even though there was steel,

offshore bank accounts, those UK things, the focus on wheels was

significant. Should Carwyn Jones go it alone or form some sort of

coalition? Is briefly, it is in his hands, we can certainly go it alone

but it is up to him to decide whether to reach out to other

parties. But we can't go it alone. Thank you very much.

What now for Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives -

the two biggest opposition parties in the Assembly?

Another election gone and still neither any closer

to freeing Labour's iron grip on power.

All smiles after pulling off the only real shock of this election.

Leanne Wood celebrating on the streets of Treochy today.

Beating former Labour minister Leighton Andrews

But elsewhere, Plaid failed to break through.

It's very difficult, the system that we've got,

to change the overall make up of the Assembly.

The dominant party is likely to remain dominant under the system.

There's got to be a really big change in the percentage for things

to shift significantly and, of course, I would have liked

the results to have been more positive for Plaid Cymru,

but we didn't have a bad night and we can hold our heads up high

and be pleased with the result, I think.

After a number of years, when the party moved back

electorally, Plaid insist they are going in the right direction.

But the party increased its number of AMs by just one, its national

This is a modest improvement for Plaid Cymru.

But I suppose, if you compare it with many of its recent electoral

performances, such as the last Assembly election, even a modest

electoral improvement is a great deal better than going backwards.

Nationally, Plaid Cymru beat the Conservatives to second place.

The Tories had hoped to make ground in places like Gower.

It won here at the General Election last year.

That success was not repeated here this time round.

It was a disappointing night, clearly.

Overall, it may be that policies in London,

the other end of the M4, you know, there have been some very

We've got the steel industry issue in Port Talbot.

And, of course, in Gower here, we have a lot of steelworkers

from Trostre and Port Talbot living, so that may have had an influence.

Another close-run race had been predicted here in Cardiff North.

Labour's Julie Morgan feared she wasn't going to win,

yet she increased her majority over her Conservative rival.

Another failure in a key target seat for the Conservatives has led

to questions over the future of the party's leader.

I think Andrew RT Davies' position must be regarded

as being extremely precarious, and I would expect there

being asked over the next few days about his future,

and his role as Conservative leader in the Assembly looks

There was no word from the man himself today, but tonight,

there is some disquiet within the party about

the way Andrew RT Davies handled the campaign.

Tory Assembly members will meet on Monday to dissect

Let's pick up on some of that with Neil McEvoy,

the new Plaid Cymru AM for South Wales Central,

and William Graham of the Conservatives.

William, let me start with you. Where with the Conservative big

hitters in this campaign? George Osborne and people like Stephen

Crabb and David Cameron? We didn't see much of them and presumably you

could have done with them more? It is always good to have people

like that around but Andrew RT Davies did a great job, dominated in

the media and very pleased with what he did.

Where they annoyed with his stance on the EU because he wants to leave

and that was amiably miffed Downing Street somewhat?

Identix O. He and I disagree on that. -- I don't think so. I don't

think that had anything to do with it.

Without Leanne Wood's huge personal victory, this was a pretty ordinary

Plaid Cymru election, wasn't it? No. We went from 20% to 32% in

Cardiff West. The health minister hung on by his fingertips and we

beat the Labour Party in the regional vote in Cardiff West. In

Blaenau Gwent we got a huge result. As a party we need to look at where

we had huge electoral success and examine exactly why and roll out

what we have been doing very successfully in some local areas.

Your percentage of the vote went up by what scent so let us not overplay

this. -- 1%. This isn't 1999. We doubled our vote

in Cardiff West, which is huge. In Blaenau Gwent we almost overturned a

huge majority. The question is why did we succeed in areas like that

and not across the border so there are lessons to be lured across the

party and I'm looking forward to the next five years.

That is always the message from Plaid Cymru the day after an

election - it is just one big push that is needed and we will do it

next time. The question is if you are not going to do it this time,

when you have an unpopular Westminster Conservative government,

a Labour government in Cardiff Bay forcing through unpopular measures

on schools and hospitals- if you are not going to win in those

circumstances, when is Plaid Cymru going to win?

We have never doubled the vote in the capital city before, for

example... It doesn't translate into power and

that is the issue. At the present time, that is the

case but there are so many positives to take and I think we are going to

hit the ground running and hold the Labour Party to account over the

next five years. I am looking forward to being an effective

opposition. Maybe the only way to oust Labour is

for Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives to reach an

arrangement. I don't see why not. Ten years ago

we almost had a rainbow coalition and it is possible. Throughout the

last assembly we had all sorts of minor coalitions forcing the Labour

Party to change its policy. You were laughing so presumably there is no

chance in hell of that? I think the similarities between the

Labour Party and the Conservative Party are huge...

You would rather be shacked up with Labour?

Red Tory, new Tory. You tell me the difference? They are both

disconnected, not engaging with our communities and the next three years

are going to be very interesting. Whilst turnout yesterday was 45% -

marginally less awful than some had feared -

around 400,000 fewer people voted in

the Assembly Election than last So why didn't it

pull in the punters? Our Political Correspondent,

Daniel Davies, has been The voters call the shots

to decide who takes the big decisions on schools,

hospitals and the economy. But Assembly elections have

struggled to pull in big audiences. Political buffs have been

glued to their seats. Well, I think the leaders debates,

for example, I think resonated with a lot of people and I think

that's a real positive step forward. The only issue is whether or not

that moves beyond the people who are all converts and the people

who are already interested in politics or whether or not that

actually connects with the large majority of people in Wales

who previously were not really Some of the storylines might

sound a bit familiar. I think probably the narrative that

didn't stick during the campaign, which would have made a significant

difference, is that there was a real I don't think that got the traction

that it might have done and, as a result, it became a question

of, when we moved onto Welsh issues, there was very little difference

in terms of what each of the parties Also showing during Wales' election

campaign, some big blockbusters - an American presidential

contest, a steel crisis, offshore tax havens,

the UK's future in There have been allsorts of events

and factors from outside Wales that have provided the backdrop

to the election, but have Well, I think it's always

been thus, really. It's incredibly hard to plan a Welsh

election campaign and then keep to script for the whole

of the duration. Perhaps some things came out

of the blue and clearly, the Tata Steel crisis,

we knew that there would be a backdrop of the EU referendum,

the Panama Papers, some of the rows within the Labour Party

centrally, were unexpected. But I think, really,

it's up to the parties to be fleet of foot and to adjust around that,

really, rather than blame a lacklustre campaign

on external factors. Welsh politics struggles to get

a look-in in the London papers, The issues that they will be reading

about, and the papers and the news that they will be watching,

will very rarely mention Wales at all, let alone

the Welsh elections. So people will definitely

have read a lot more about these external things,

like Brexit and Yeah, he's attracted a lot

of attention all around the world. Is it a good or a bad

thing that we don't Be careful what you wish for,

I'd say, with a figure like Donald. In five years, there will be

a sequel, possibly Next time, we could be voting

for a rebranded Welsh Parliament. And powers over income

tax are en route. Will either of those

generate more interest? So a slightly better

turnout than expected but still not the blockbuster

turnout the General Election is. Political pundits Valerie

Livingston and Sian Powell Valerie, turnout was 45%. The

general election was 65%. Why doesn't the Welsh public love Welsh

elections like you both do. We saw a better turnout at this election than

we did in the previous Welsh election but much lower than the

general election. I think we can attribute that to the heat on the

ground and with a general election it is almost impossible to escape

the fact it is going on. The Assembly tends to be a bit more low

key. This afternoon, a senior member of

the political class blames the media for the lack of interest? Do you

blame the media? What is the problem here? I think

most of the people in Wales get the news from the UK wide media and as

we have heard and discussed today, there is very little room in the UK

media. It's about Welsh politics particularly so I think there is

room to blame the UK media but also I think there has been lots of

background stories to this with the EU referendum. I think that may have

sucked the life out of this campaign a bit.

They beat we need a Donald Trump or a forest?

We have got some big characters. Particularly the new group of Ukip

family members- Neil Hamilton and Christine Hamilton, who has featured

heavily despite not being elected. Don't let that get in the way! I

wonder what impact the TV debates had. And people I met in Rhondda

today suggested the television debates may have had an impact on

the success of Leanne Wood but it is difficult to judge.

I think she has a UK wide profile that she has developed over the last

few years with her appearances... Which was clearly good for her

personal profile and doing well in her constituency but it didn't

translate into Plaid Cymru's nationwide success, did it? Know and

another point is the organisation on the ground because they were working

the Rhondda hard over a number of years and if they had taken that

organisation into other places like Llanelli or Aberconwy, we might have

seen them win seats there as well. You probably spent ages travelling

the country like I have over the weeks leading up to this but people

come up to you saying, it is the same outcome whatever you vote,

which is the implication of the film earlier on because you end up with

the same? The system in Wales is such that it would take a massive

change in the voting profile, as we've seen in Scotland, to secure a

radically different result. And I think actually we have ended up with

a similar number of seats but Labour has lost a lot of vote share and it

is important because although they have lost the vote share, they have

the same amount of seats but the vote share has fallen significantly.

What will the headline be for the election in 2016?

For me it has been a flat election, an odd election night and possibly

leading to a very interesting Assembly.

Yes, Leanne Wood's election victory in the Rhondda, and people in the

Labour Party underestimated her personal support and appeal as well.

Carwyn Jones will be returning to the First Minister's office

on Monday with plenty on his to-do list.

Here's some of BBC Wales's finest brains and the top priorities

Well, first and foremost the First Minister needs to pick

a new Cabinet of ministers responsible for

different policy areas - health, education and so on.

There is an EU referendum in almost seven weeks and

so to all intents and purposes, Welsh government business is on hold

The election led to a pause in plans for the next

David Cameron's government wants to give Wales more

powers over transport, energy, the Assembly's

But Carwyn Jones says that the draft Wales Bill will actually

reduce its existing powers and so expect the sparks to fly

Towards the top of the First Minister's list of concerns

will be the future of the steelworks at Port Talbot.

Will the Welsh government put up financial support

And will they consider a new funding floor put forward by the team that

Lots for the First Minister and the new Business

When it comes to education, the new minister will be studying

plans for a brand-new curriculum in our

schools while thousands of young people sit GCSEs and A-levels.

Those results and the results of the latest Pisa international

tests due later this year will be crucial

not only for Welsh pupils but also for the politicians.

Longer term there are two decisions the First

Minister needs to take - firstly for a new M4 relief road

in south Wales and secondly, on whether to

Let's hear more about what will be top of the new government's in-tray.

Our political editor Nick Servini joins us again,

and Owain Clarke and Sarah Dickins, our health and education

Sarah, let's start with you. Big decisions for the First Minister on

Tata steel and the M4 relief road. That injury has been getting fatter

while they have been campaigning. A new proposal for Circuit of Wales

with 50% underwritten by the government has been sitting there

for a week. They will have to make decisions. The consultation period

for the controversial ?1 billion black root for the M4 has closed and

that is before we talk about the Metro and what practical,

sustainable help the Welsh government can give Tata steel and

the buyers. And a new party in the Assembly,

Ukip, and some new ideas. I think we will have a different

discussion about the type of economics we need to lift us out of

the position of poverty we have in Wales. They are more open to the

free market and our aims -- are in favour of economic decisions being

made locally. If a local council likes fracking, why shouldn't they

have it? That is the argument. That is really controversial.

Additionally, having Plaid Cymru as the economic opposition will be a

different argument. What are the top priorities when it

comes to health? The discussion that may or may not

happen between Labour and any other party because I think Labour will

want to crack on with health policies, like establishing a new

health treatment fund and investing in mental health but there are some

serious challenges - waiting times, too long, and Labour admit that. It

isn't just throwing cash at the problem but it means rebalancing the

system and making sure supply meets demand. The other thing- dealing

with emergency pressures because the winter was really bad for the Welsh

NHS and lots of old and sick people going to accident and emergency and

they struggled to cope. The third thing is recruitment issues. People

are crying out for a local GP at. We will get a vision pretty soon I am

told about health but if it is bad now, it will be worse in five years.

Will Mark Drakeford return as health minister?

He looked tired when he was re-elected but he had been up all

night. People are asking if he is tired of the job and that is the

suggestion. Health ministers in the past have had fairly short shelf

life is so I wouldn't be surprised. Somebody who was topped as health

minister in the future lost his seat today, Leighton Andrews. The

question is who will have that role if Mark Drexler doesn't want it?

Nick Servini, -- Mark Drakeford doesn't want it. What about the Ukip

members? Nobody can answer the question what

kind of party Ukip will be after the EU referendum next month. They claim

they will shake up or six in this place and I think it is fair to say

they will bring a new dynamic to the debates. Quite often there is a

consensus that builds up about areas like the Constitution and we will

have a noisy set of voices to act against any kind of consensus that

breaks out among the other parties. The other point is that for the

first time the Conservatives will have a group to the right of them so

there is certainly a possibility that a right-wing rump of

politicians that the Assembly could be in action and as a result, we

could see an increased polarisation between the right and left and in

terms of political activity at the Assembly. The other point to make

that maybe hasn't been raised so far in terms of the change is the churn

in terms of the new faces, new Assembly members that will be

starting for the first time, particularly in Labour ranks. They

come in with a huge range of experiences and new background and

the impact can really be, arguably, one of the biggest lasting legacies

as a result of this election result. Nick Servini, thank you very much.

We've had far too many political maps of Wales -

here's Derek and something for the weekend.

Thanks very much, Jamie. We are in for a taste of summer this weekend.

Some fine weather but also some thundery showers. A dry story

tonight with plenty of high cloud and a mild night with temperatures

not falling below nine or 13 Celsius. There is a Met Office

warning in force for the scattered thundery downpours tomorrow but they

will be hit and miss. Tomorrow morning some places high and dry

with that bright -- high and bright. Reyna for Ireland and thundery

showers. Elsewhere, a lot of right weather would hazy sunshine. A few

severe showers late in the afternoon. 24 degrees in London and

cooler for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Scattered showers in Wales

with thunder in places but if you are lucky you will stay dry. Hazy

sunshine and warmer than today on the north and west coast. Saturday

night, thundery downpours likely and it will be a mild and muggy night.

Thundery showers first thing on Sunday will clear and it will turn

into a nice day with her in hazy sunshine. In dry weather with

thunderstorms in the north-east in the afternoon with temperatures into

the made to low 20s. 24 likely in Porthmadog with a south-easterly

breeze coming from the Mediterranean. In fact, some places

will be warmer than I be fair on Sunday, 23 Celsius possible in other

live on. We are in for a taste of summer over the weekend with hazy

sunshine but do watch out for a few heavy and thundery showers as well.

Into next week it will start off warm, still in the 20s on Monday

with the best of the sunshine in the north. Into the week it is turning

more unsettled with rain and thunderstorms moving in from the

south and eventually turning cooler as well. Enjoy the taste of summer

over the weekend and enjoy the hazy sunshine if you can. Jamie.

Much more on the website on the election. That is Wales Today.

Have a lovely weekend, thank you for watching and from all of us