30/01/2018 Breakfast

Hello, this is Breakfast,

with Louise Minchin and Dan Walker.

A leaked Government report predicts

Britain could be worse off

after Brexit for the next 15 years.

The confidential document was

prepared for the Brexit Secretary,

David Davis, but Number Ten insists

it fails to give the full picture.

More than 1.5 million people

receiving the main disability

benefit are to have their claims

reviewed, after a court ruling,

but campaigners tell Breakfast

the move doesn't go far enough.

Women at the BBC tell reporters they

face veiled threats when they raise

the subject of equal pay.

Good morning.

In sport: David Beckham

is back in business.

The star has launched

a football team in Miami.

And Carol has the weather.

Good morning, a cold and frosty

start for many of us this morning,

with sunshine central, southern and

eastern areas. In the north-west

some wet and windy conditions, and

cloudy and drizzly conditions across

parts of Wales in south-west

England. I will have more details in

15 minutes.

The impact of Brexit could leave

Britain substantially worse off over

the next 15 years according to a

leaked government document, with the

analysis carried out David Davis and

seen by news service does feed. In

it three scenarios are set out. The

first looks at what happens if there

is no EU trade deal, which would

lower growth by 8%. If we managed a

full trade agreement, the losses

estimated at 5% alternatively, if

reason kept access to the single

market in a so-called soft Brexit,

the impact would be just 2%.

Government sources point out

document hasn't looked at the impact

of the third option, our bespoke

trade deal with the EU. Our

political correspondent is outside

Westminster for us this morning.

Good morning to you once again,

Alex. Another day, another Brexit

headline.

There has already been

quite a lot of controversy over any

impact assessments the government

may or may not have carried out,

looking at the impact of Brexit on

the economy and different set as an

business is. David Davis, the Brexit

secretary, said in the past there

wasn't any official analysis, and

then he published some details and

there was a whole row about it. Now

we have a leaked report, which as

you say looks at these different

models. It does say underneath those

that the UK would benefit from doing

trade deals from other countries

like the US, but effectively it says

the British economy would be worse

off under every scenario it looked

at, in terms of Brexit. Now, Downing

Street doesn't deny that this impact

assessment exists, but says it

doesn't look at what the UK

government wants, which is a very

bespoke, tailor-made deal with the

EU, and doesn't replicate any

existing model. It also points out

that this is part of a whole range

of analysis which is being carried

out. Nonetheless it has been seized

upon by those who think Brexit is a

bad idea to say it proves that

point, while some in the

Conservative Party are saying that

largely this kind of modelling is

ineffective and inaccurate, and not

very useful at all. It has played to

the divisions in the Conservative

Party which already existed, and

today we had the international trade

Secretary, Liam Fox, give an

interview to the sun where he says

all of this is very bad for the

government and he is urging his

party to unite behind the Prime

Minister. He is warning some people

in the party they will have to be

disappointed with what is about to

happen -- the Sun. However, rather

than calm tensions, I fear that will

only fuel them.

only fuel them.

So that document was

leaked to buzz feed, and we will

speak to one of their journalists

who has seen the document later in

the programme -- Buzzfeed.

There is a report that the

government discriminated in personal

insurance payments against those

with certain disabilities. Our

correspondent can explain.

Homework time for Chloe

Clark and his son.

She suffers from severe

anxiety, and cannot live

without a family member.

I do the Lee Selby is terminated

against.

I can't go out on my own.

my husband had to quit

work to look after me.

I had a long period of no

contact with friends

and family.

They suffered.

Last month, the High Court found

mental health payments

for PIP were discriminatory.

Every person on PIP

will have their cases reviewed,

1.6 million people.

At the end of the process around

220,000 people will get extra

money.

The changes will cost the government

£3.7 billion by 2022-3.

It will make a difference to a lot

of people's quality of life,

whether people can travel

somewhere, forward

to heat their homes,

have additional food to eat.

Very basic difference is that it

will make to people's

quality of life.

Exactly who will benefit

from the review is not clear yet,

but for people like Chloe,

there is less reason to feel anger

towards a system that

has failed its users.

The Irish cabinet has formally

agreed to hold a referendum

on liberalising the

country's abortion laws.

The Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar,

said there must be an end to women

having to go abroad

for terminations.

Andrew Plant reports.

CHANTING.

It is an issue that polarises

opinion in Ireland, now set

to be the subject of a referendum

on changing the law.

At the moment, thousands

of women travel overseas

to terminate their pregnancy every

year, or buy abortion pills online,

taken at home without medical

support or supervision.

Now, politicians have agreed to hold

a referendum on whether the laws

on abortion should be changed.

We already have abortion in Ireland.

But it's unsafe,

unregulated, and unlawful.

And, in my opinion, we cannot

continue to export our problems

and import our solutions.

As a medical doctor,

as a former minister for health,

I don't believe we can persist

with the situation whereby women

in crisis are risking their lives

through the use of

unregulated medicines.

Pro-life groups here believe

the laws on abortion

shouldn't be changed.

But campaigners want to see it

decriminalised, and polls suggest

that most people would vote

to change the law and make abortion

legal in some circumstances.

Now, Ireland's health minister

will draft a bill to amend

the country's constitution in time

for a vote at the end of May.

Andrew Plant, BBC News.

Women at the BBC have told MPs

they faced veiled threats

when they raised the

subject of equal pay.

The claims, which were made

to the Digital, Culture,

Media and Sport Select Committee,

come as the BBC announces plans

for a pay cap on its

news presenters.

Here is our media

correspondent David Sillito.

Some of the BBC's top news

presenters have already agreed

to have their pay cut,

but this goes a step further.

A ceiling of £320,000.

It is still more than twice

what the Prime Minister makes,

and will only affect

a handful of people.

But it is a part of a wider audit

and report into staff salaries.

One key issue was highlighted

by the recent resignation

of Carrie Gracie as

the BBC's China editor.

She says a comparable male colleague

was making more than 50%

more than her.

This and other pay issues are now

being investigated by MPs.

What we want from the BBC is,

you know, a clear explanation

of the steps they'll take to bring

about an open and transparent policy

on equal pay.

And how they account for some

of the pay decisions that were made

in the past, that saw some people

being paid many times more

than their colleagues for doing

what was essentially the same job.

All of this follows the publication

last summer of the pay deals

of the BBC's top stars.

The women campaigning for equal pay

say they have not been consulted,

and so have no confidence

in today's report.

But the BBC says it is

committed to equal pay,

and says today's proposals will make

significant changes to the way it

pays its on-air stars.

David Sillito, BBC News.

Police in the South African city

of Cape Town have begun issuing

fines to residents suspected

of ignoring strict water

regulations, following the worst

drought in the region for more

than a century.

Officials have banned the washing

of cars and imposed a limit of 50

litres of water per person per day.

It comes ahead of the so-called

day zero, on 12 April,

which could see the main supply

switched off and residents forced

to queue for water

at collection points.

He is the boy wizard who vanquished

the terrifying Lord Voldemort,

but it seems that Harry Potter's

fans are equally keen to take

on a formidable opponent -

the Mastermind presenter John

Humphreys.

Last year, 262 Mastermind applicants

requested Harry Potter

as their specialist subject,

according to the show's producer.

He told the Radio Times

it is the most popular request,

but only one contestant per series

is allowed to do it.

Irving Welsh.

Linton travel turn.

127 Hours.

He has a 12 inch plate.

Keratin.

Fallopian.

Icarus.

A dead

cow.

And you were all right up to

there.

You knew that, didn't you?

Absolutely.

Sonali is here with the sport.

What was your speciality subject?

Clearly something medical.

Yes, that

wasn't very intelligent, choosing

something so broad. I wish you had

been advising, I asked for friends,

only because that is quite a world

away from the human body but I have

never been a major fan goal of

anything. I just kind of know, you

no, broad stuff to get me through

life.

It gives me sweaty palms even

watching you do it, because when

John Humphrys asked me the first

question, he might as well have

asked me what the names of my

daughters were, and I would have

floundered.

What was yours?

It was

dusty Russell. Yours? One I did the

gunpowder plot.

gunpowder plot. And I did the old

thing where you get one wrong and

start thinking about why you got it

wrong.

I was on with Hacker the Dog.

And I don't know what Tim Muffett's

favourite subject was.

I don't know.

I think Bushell's was probably Alan

Patridge. The films of Danny Boyle,

I am told, was Tim Muffett. One

bloke went on and said can I do meet

as a speciality subject, and the

producer said you can't do that, it

is too broad -- meat. So he

requested pork. There are not that

many questions you can come up with

on pork.

They said too many people

request Friends, but since I have

been on I have seen lots of reality

TV stars request Friends. There is

also Fawlty Towers, quite a few of

those on the list. I like the way

you said that word behind your hand.

It is before seven a.m.. Shall we

start with David Beckham? What would

be his specialist subject, I wonder?

Scuffs over suits. -- scarves.

He is

in the news because he has bought a

football team officially in the

United States. He has always wanted

to own a team himself, and it has

taken a lot of years, but yes, it is

now the 25th franchise in Major

League Soccer, which is teams across

the US and Canada.

Let's have a look at how

Major League Soccer's 25th team

was announced, four years

after the former Manchester United

and England midfielder said

he would front the new franchise.

The delay has partly been down

to disputes over the site

for a stadium in southern Florida,

with residents having

opposed multiple locations.

Phil Neville insists he is not

sexist, after being criticised

for tweets he posted in 2011.

The England women's manager met

with the media for the first time

yesterday, where he defended

himself, also saying that he didn't

view the role as a stepping stone.

Britain's Amir Khan is returning

to boxing after almost two years out

of the ring.

He will fight Canadian Phil Lo Greco

in Liverpool in April.

And Britain's Alfie Hewett

is the new world number one

in the wheelchair tennis singles

rankings, for the first time

in his career.

He is now the second British man

to hold the top spot,

after fellow 2016 Paralympic

medallist Gordon Reid.

I will be staying for the papers, if

that is all right.

Yes, of course

that is all right.

It is very cold. Oxfordshire

yesterday,

It is very cold. Oxfordshire

yesterday, plus ten. Now, -5. 15

degrees different. Southern England,

10- 15 degrees lower than yesterday

at this time. A touch of frost. No

surprise. Not everywhere, the

north-west, more cloud. Summer rain.

It is courtesy of this system

producing the cloud. -- Some rain.

And another one will push in as

well. Clear sky this morning. It is

cold. It is frosty. Look out for ice

on untreated surfaces. Sony. The

same in East Anglia. -- Sunny. You

can see a few showers scattered

across the west of Northern Ireland.

Prolific. Happening through the

north-west of Scotland. Some of that

will be snow. Through the morning,

temperatures will slowly come up.

The sun will come out to be for

many, a pleasant and dry days to be

as this is the cloud building to be

drizzle. The cloud will build and go

east. At the same time, further

showers in the north-west of

Scotland with snow in the mountains.

For much of Scotland, dry, like

England, Wales, and Northern

Ireland. Temperatures are not

noteworthy. With the sunshine,

pleasant for this stage in January.

The evening and overnight, this is

the man the south-west and

north-east going south-east. -- The

system. Some snow at lower levels.

As we go south, not as cold as this

morning.

morning. Fives, sixes, eights

towards Plymouth. These are the

fronts going south. Cold air seeping

behind. Increasingly through the

day, snow at lower levels. The

day, snow at lower levels. The mild

weather of the yellow pushed by the

blue. Rain first thing in the

morning. Sunshine. Showers in

Northern Ireland and nor in England,

getting down to modest levels, 200

metres. Not as disruptive as it was

a few weeks ago.

a few weeks ago. Temperatures, only

fours and fives in the north.

Not

that dramatic.

fours and fives in the north.

Not

that dramatic. Thank you.

You're watching

Breakfast from BBC News.

We will look at the papers in a

moment. First, the main stories this

morning.

Government officials have concluded

that Britain will be worse off

after Brexit regardless of any deal

struck with Brussels.

The Irish cabinet has approved plans

to hold a referendum in May

on whether to reform

the country's abortion laws.

Where would you like to begin? The

Mail. You go first.

Thank you. The

Daily Telegraph. Women at BBC faced

threats over pay. We will look at

that in more detail later.

that in more detail later. And this

is Mrs Hancock on love with a

60-year-age gap.

And Nick Knoll is.

The story about the BBC. The Mail.

This is in a few of the papers. A

burglar. It is suspected possibly a

renegade soldier has undertaken a

series of raids on houses. He has

gone into various places and stolen

valuables worth up to £7 million. He

has been dubbed the Knight Watcher.

Theresa May faces growing calls to

quit. Unrest grows. A private

viewing of the Royal Academy

exhibition of works collected by

King Charles I, a prolific art

collector.

This main story is about

Volkswagen. The world's biggest

carmaker is under fire from

politicians and environmentalists

after it used monkeys and humans to

test fumes.

Yesterday we were

talking about Phil Neville facing

the world media for the first time

since being announced as the manager

of England women. He clarified a

tweet talking about battering the

wife. He said he was talking about

playing table tennis with his wife

and that was the wording that he

used. He apologised for the

language. He admitted in isolation

it looked bad. He went on to say

Manchester United, the only thing

without a major women's team, he

wants them to have one. Many are

baffled at it already. Phil Neville

is going to work harder to start one

for them. And that windscreen with

Carol. It could belong to this

player. A club record signing for

Dortmund. He is a fan of the Flash.

Not the comic book character, flashy

cars. £250,000 Lamborghinis to a it

went £1000 boxlike and Beetle.

went £1000 boxlike and Beetle. --

Volkswagen. -- 20 £1000.

Volkswagen. -- 20 £1000.

Another

story which is quite sad. No

story which is quite sad. No one

wants black cats because, right,

this is sad, they don't show up in

selfies. What! Plenty of

selfies. What! Plenty of reasons,

bad luck, witchcraft, but a

high-tech Britain doesn't want them

in selfies. You can't see them.

I am

not a cat person, but I have black

hair, and mine shows up!

He would

look perfect on this sofa.

This is

about a student, you know how you

often talk on a train and you

overhear others, this woman was

talking about money worries. She had

a sleep, and on waking up, she found

£100 under a napkin on her lap.

Someone left it for her.

Someone left it for her.

And she is

trying to thank them.

It happens to

me once. I was a student a long time

ago. We went to pay the bill and it

was already paid. They overheard us

talking about money being tight.

That is amazing.

How did you react?

They had gone! I was unable to say

thank you.

Did you go back and have

a view

a view more on their card? Did they

open a tab? That is amazing. -- few

more.

Tell us if you have ever been

on the end of one of those. It is

6:23.

Subjects like art, music,

and drama are being cut back

in secondary schools in England,

according to a BBC survey.

Teachers say there's been a squeeze

on creative classes amid concerns

that there's too much

emphasis on core subjects

like Maths and English.

Jo Black has this report.

The creative arts. They have been

part of the weekly timetable for

decades. But for how much longer?

We

are reaching a tipping point where

if we continue to squeeze the arts,

it will have significantly negative

effects. In the last three years,

this head teacher has had to cut

arts lessons, resources, and staff,

and is teaching some of the classes

himself. I have had to make

decisions about whether I can afford

to run certain classes. I know there

are schools that have cut GSCEs in

Drama and Photography.

I want to

express myself

Drama and Photography.

I want to

express myself.

They all rely on

core skills like maths and science.

There is a lot of pressure.

The BBC

asked schools about this. 40%, more

than 1200 schools, responded. A

third said they cut the number of

lessons in at least one arts subject

in the last few years. A quarter

said they now employ fewer

specialist teachers. And a third are

considering dropping at least one

arts subject for GSCE. Why is this

happening? The key reason is the

government's focus on core subjects

like English, maths, science,

language, history, and geography. Mr

Swan schools to make sure more

pupils sit these subjects.

pupils sit these subjects. -- They

want to make sure. This Shakespeare

festival gives pupils all over the

country a chance to perform on a

professional stage. But

increasingly, schools have been

dropping out because they cannot

afford it, and they do not have

enough staff to take part creativity

and art education is not just about

painters and actors. Being a

creative member of society means you

are more confident and communicate

better and work better with people

of different backgrounds to

yourself. That is something that is

absolutely crucial in a society

facing the kind of difficulties and

problems we face. Does that

represent the creative industries

worth £92 billion a year are

becoming increasingly concerned.

Arts provision should also be seen

as a core subject. There is nothing

soft about subjects that create the

talent that create the fastest

growing sector in the UK economy.

The government says schools are

required to provide a broad and

balanced curriculum which Ofsted

consider in their inspections. It

also says it is investing £400

million in music and arts education

programmes. But for most schools in

our survey, cuts to the arts are not

over yet, with more expected in the

coming years. Jo Black, BBC News.

We will talk about that a little bit

later in the programme. I believe it

is ten past seven that we will. I

may have made that up.

Coming up later in the programme:

Building work in some of the UK's

biggest cities

is at near record levels.

Sean's at a new development in

Manchester finding out why.

You have a lovely view. We cannot

see it yet. Good morning.

It will

come. The easy thing you can do at

the moment is count cranes. That is

something people do to get the

strength of a local economy across

the country. I can see seven on the

skyline. Compare that to previous

years, you get a sense of how well

cities are doing. We are looking

specifically at the consultancy

putting together an index looking at

how much building is going on in the

country. Manchester in Belfast,

Birmingham,

as it struggles with a budget

crisis. More on that with Vanessa

Feltz from seven on BBC London. I

will be back soon. Goodbye.

Hello, this is Breakfast

with Dan Walker and Louise Minchin.

It is 6:30am.

We will bring you all the latest

news and sport in a moment.

But also on Breakfast this morning:

A pioneer for black footballers

across the world.

Cyrille Regis's best friend

will join us to share his memories

of a West Brom legend,

as his club prepares to say

a final farewell.

Blood moons, supermoons

and eclipses.

2017 was a remarkable

year for lunar activity.

We will hear why, and what we

can expect this year.

Winterwatch is back.

Badgers are always a challenge

for the camera crew.

We will find out how

the team will follow them

through the seasons.

Here is a summary of today's main

stories from BBC News:

The impact of Brexit could leave

Britain substantially worse off over

the next 15 years according to a

leaked government document. The

analysis of three different

scenarios has been carried out by

the office of the Brexit secretary,

David Davis, and has been seen by

the online news service BuzzFeed.

Government sources suggest it hasn't

looked at the impact of the third,

preferred option, a bespoke trade

deal with the EU.

A significant number of people who

receive personal independence

payments from the government are

expected to receive more money after

their cases reviewed. All recipients

are to have their cases looked at

again after the challenge saying

they were unfair to people with

mental health conditions.

This is a series of improvements

which please me, because it shows

the government can be controlling

and careful with money but also do

the right things for people who are

vulnerable and who need our support.

Police say a highly-professional

former soldier is believed to have

carried out seven violent raids

with military-style planning.

Surrey Police have released CCTV

footage of a suspect,

who is accused of staking out

expensive properties

in the Home Counties,

so that he knew their exact layout

and location of safes.

The owners were robbed

of jewellery and watches,

while being threatened

with a sawn-off shotgun.

The Irish cabinet has formally

agreed to hold a referendum

on liberalising the country's

abortion laws, at the end of May.

The Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar,

said there must be an end to women

having to go abroad

for terminations.

The Republic of Ireland currently

has a near-total ban on abortion.

Women at the BBC have told MPs

they faced veiled threats

when they raised the

subject of equal pay.

The claims, which were made

to the Digital, Culture,

Media and Sport Select Committee,

come as the BBC announces plans

for a pay cap on its

news presenters.

The proposed maximum salary

of £320,000 will affect only

a handful of people,

but forms part of a wider

restructuring of pay.

Police in the South African city

of Cape Town have begun issuing

fines to residents suspected

of ignoring strict water

regulations, following the worst

drought in the region for more

than a century.

Officials have banned the washing

of cars and imposed a limit of 50

litres of water per person per day.

It comes ahead of the so-called

day zero, on 12 April,

which could see the main supply

switched off and residents forced

to queue for water

at collection points.

It is time again to talk about David

Beckham.

Not that we talk about

David Beckham everyday.

I like

talking about David Beckham. He is

now the owner of a football team

over in the States. He says it is a

dream come true. He first said he

wanted one in Miami four years ago

but there have been long legal

battles and he finally announced it

yesterday. Interestingly they don't

have a team game, there are already

three Uniteds out there, Minnesota

United, Atlanta United, and maybe he

will want Miami United. I don't know

what the rules are about the name,

at least that would still have MMU.

You always come up with good names.

You can't top Kyle-imanjaro.

Our sports correspondent

Natalie Pirks has more.

This is how America does football,

with much fanfare and franchises.

David Beckham is once again lending

his star power to Major League

Soccer, this time as an owner of

Miami, the league's 24th club.

Today

you made my dream come true.

It is a

dream that has been a long time

coming, part of the contract that

lured back as a player from Los

Angeles in 2007 was a cut-price deal

to own his own club someday. He told

me his competitive nature kept the

franchise alive.

There was moments

and I didn't think it was going to

happen, but I don't like to lose. I

don't give in very easily. I always

believed in Miami, I always believe

that, you know, this is where I want

about him, and finally we are here.

Well, this is where the stadium is

currently slated to be built, an

area called Overtown, which even the

local mayor described as edgy. This

road is where the middle of the

pitch could be, and as you can

imagine that hasn't gone down well

with some community leaders, who are

concerned over things like noise,

traffic, and a questionable economic

benefits.

I can't imagine how I am

going to be able to get in and out

of our neighbourhood when 25,000

soccer fans are swarming the site on

a weekday evening.

$250 million to

build this stadium, and all you get

is 50 jobs out of it? That mass

doesn't work.

It didn't work for the

last MLS team here. Miami Fusion

folded after just four seasons, but

a lot has changed since then. Miami

has a large Hispanic community, and

football is a huge part of its

culture.

We love soccer here, and

anything to generate money just for

the city itself, make us more

popular than the we already are, is

great.

We are hoping that the name

of Beckham will have a lot of people

wanting to play for this team.

We

have had a wealth of experience from

playing with different clubs in

different cities around the world,

so that is where I can obviously add

my expertise into this ownership

group. And that will be my role, you

know, to bring great, talented

players.

At that will require cash.

Sanchez, for example, is on a

reported £5,000 a week off but

Manchester's former Plaut says they

deserve it.

The money is incredible.

I am not going to turn around and

say this player should be paid that,

because I believe that if you have

done well in the game you deserve

whatever you get.

MLS has designs on

becoming a major global player. Then

newest owner knows plenty about

that. -- of their newest owner.

Meanwhile, Beckham's former

Manchester United teammate

Phil Neville has given his first

interview since his controversial

appointment as England

women's manager.

Neville apologised a day

after taking the job for past

tweets about women.

The former England defender can't

wait to get started.

Do I know everything about women's

football? No, but I will, and that

is part of my job. When I went to La

Liga, I knew three players within

the Valencia team, within a week I

knew all about Valencia and was

speaking another language. I am a

fast learner and it is something

that now I will throw everything

into making sure that my 100%

commitment is to the women's game.

It is that time when Premier League

clubs check their fax machine

is working and the chairman's

mobile has got battery -

transfer deadline day.

It is the last chance to sign

new players before the end

of the season.

Expect the cash to flow.

League leaders Manchester City

are set to break their transfer

record by spending £57 million

to bring in French defender Aymeric

Laporte.

You probably last saw him trying

to avoid snakes in I'm a Celebrity,

Get Me Out Of Here.

But now, Amir Khan is getting back

into the boxing ring.

He will fight Canadian Phil Lo Greco

in Liverpool in April.

Khan lost his last fight back

in 2016, but says it's time

to shine again.

Britain's Alfie Hewett

is the new number-one-ranked

wheelchair singles tennis player.

He says a dream has become reality.

He is the second British man

to make it to top spot,

after his doubles

partner Gordon Reid.

He wrote on Twitter that

it's been a journey.

Many highs and lows,

pain and sacrifice, tears,

fun and enjoyment.

After 169 Russian athletes

were invited to compete as neutrals

at the Winter Olympics over

the weekend, the International

Paralympic Committee

has followed suit.

Russian para-athletes who can prove

they are clean will be allowed

to compete as neutrals

in Pyeongchang next month.

Russia was banned from all

Paralympic competition two years

ago, after being accused

of state-sponsored doping.

And finally, you may have heard

of welly wanging competitions,

but have you heard of tuna tossing?

I should add, the tuna

in the following clip

are made of rubber.

The Tuna Tossing World Championships

take place annually

at the Tunarama Festival,

in Port Lincoln, Australia.

The idea grew from watching dock

workers in this fishing town

hurl their catch from the decks

of overflowing boats.

Some, though, were a lot more

successful than others.

This can't be the first time we have

shown these pictures.

Do you know, I

have been here a long time and I

think it is.

think it is.

So the idea started

with throwing a dead fish back in.

Have you ever welly wanged?

No, I am

not might bushel.

I remember you

should always grab the end which is

not the boot and, and then you

normally... The best technique

apparently is to face the other way

and wang it over your head like

that. Just give it a good wang.

Theresa May flies out to China

later, but it is likely that Brexit

will continue to

dominate the agenda.

A Government document has been

leaked suggesting that the economy

will slow down after

we leave the EU.

The internal analysis,

seen by the news website BuzzFeed,

simulated three different

scenarios for Brexit.

In each, the UK was left

in a worse financial situation

than if we remained in the union.

But the Government says it fails

to cover Number Ten's preferred

scenario of a bespoke trade deal.

Let's speak to our political

correspondent Alex Forsyth,

who is in Westminster.

We mentioned there are government

trying to say hold on a minute, this

isn't covering what we are looking

at ourselves. But it is still pretty

damaging, isn't it?

Yes, the

government will wake up to more

unwanted headlines to do with Brexit

this morning. It has looked at three

possibilities, as you say, the idea

of getting a trade deal with the EU,

getting no trade deal, and staying

in the single market and under all

three at says the economy would grow

more slowly than if the UK were to

stay in the European Union. As you

said, the government says work is

crucially doesn't take into account

is the government's plan to not take

one of the models which currently

exists but to get a tailor-made,

bespoke deal with the European

Union, which reflects the

partnership that the UK currently

has. So they say this must be given

its contacts. You can't read too

much into this, and it is only part

of the many aspects of analysis that

are going on across Westminster.

Nonetheless what this does is fuel

divisions within the Conservative

Party between those who say the exit

is a bad idea which they don't want

to happen, and those who say there

is far too much of a gloomy outlook

on this kind of modelling can't be

trusted. It plays into those

divisions and that debate. We heard

among Tory colleagues on Newsnight,

backbenchers Jacob Rees-Mogg and

Nicky Morgan, a very stark

difference of opinion about this

analysis. Let's listen to what they

had to say.

The key thing is the

assumption of the tariffs you apply

to goods coming into the EU, and I

don't know about these models but

the ones done before that Brexit

vote assumed we would apply the

common external tariff to UK

external trade with the UK, and that

makes these models highly

speculative and so far very

inaccurate.

We can argue about the

underlying basis and everything

else. What it shows is there is a

risk this is why I wanted to remain,

to the UK economy. At the end of the

day our constituents will not thank

us if we have weakened our economic

security and livelihoods as a result

of these negotiations.

The problem

for Theresa May is the Conservative

Party she governs fundamentally

disagree is not only about whether

Brexit is the right thing or the

wrong thing, but about how the

government should handle it. And

interestingly, today, the

International trade Secretary, Liam

Fox, who himself was a great

Brexiteer, has said it is time to

get behind Theresa May and says

there will be some people in the

party who are disappointed with the

outcome of this process, but he says

they will just have to put up with

it. So I think what we are getting

now is a recognition of just how

damaging these divisions over Brexit

really are to the government, that

senior figures are rallying around

her trying to say let's get kind the

leader, put the squabbling to one

side, and get on with this process.

And we will continue to look at that

throughout the programme this

morning.

Do you use anti-freeze?

If I

Do you use anti-freeze?

If I can

find it. It is a beautiful picture

behind you.

Lovely. It is very cold.

You will be scraping the windscreen.

New Zealand, it is summer in the

Southern Hemisphere, and this woman

had a temperature knocking on the

door of 38 degrees, 100 Fahrenheit.

That is the hottest January day in

New Zealand in 40 years. Here, 10-

15 degrees off of what we had

yesterday lower. Not everywhere. In

the north-west of the country, cloud

from the Atlantic producing showers

in north-west Scotland through the

night. The wind is picking up. No

problems with frost. South, under

clear skies, a cold start to the

day. You can see a blue tinge on the

charts. In rural areas, frost. When

the sun comes up, equally sunshine.

A few showers to the west of

Northern Ireland. Showers in

north-west Scotland with some snow

on the mountain tops. The rest of

Scotland, dry with sunshine. Through

the day, we hang the sunshine.

Through the day, this next system

will come up into the south-west

introducing cloud and drizzle. As

showers get going, the wind picks up

in Scotland. Look at the dry

weather. Cloud building in from the

west. A pleasant day to be the

temperature range, 6- ten. Through

the evening and overnight, this

system pushes up from the south-west

going east. In the meantime, the

rain gets heavier as it goes

south-west. They meet and continue

in the south-east. Behind that, cold

conditions come in. Snow showers

falling at lower levels. Cold in the

north. Isolated frozen surface is.

-- surfaces. On these fronts will go

south Behind that, the wind is going

north-west. We will feel the draft.

How does that look on the charts?

Rain from the south-east. Sunshine.

A smattering of showers.

Increasingly, snow showers in

Northern Ireland. We do not expect

them to be as disruptive as they

have been. It is still cold in the

north. 4-5. Ten further south.

Thursday, a quiet day for many of

us. Showers in north-east Scotland.

Snow on the mountains. It is windy.

6-7, perhaps eight. That leads us to

the end of the week with a ridge of

high pressure coming in. Some rain

on Friday. But Friday and Saturday,

for most, initially my old on

Friday, cooling down, it will get to

eight on Saturday. Not writing any

postcards about those temperatures.

I love the idea people still write

postcards.

postcards.

I do try. I'll send you

one. Thank you very much. Very cold.

I

one. Thank you very much. Very cold.

I only got one last year. I make the

kids write them.

I still have one I

have to write from Christmas it is

on my

on my list of priorities.

Getting

back to anti-freeze, I use de-icer.

I have poured water on my screen. A

small crack appeared. I fixed it.

Never

Never put water on it. Stick to

de-icer. I live life on the edge.

In

the old days, I used a credit

the old days, I used a credit card,

or a CD. As long as it is old and

you don't mind ruining it. Get in

there like that.

The UK's largest regional cities

are seeing near-record levels

of construction activity

for the second year in a row.

That's according to an annual survey

of activity in Birmingham,

Leeds, Belfast and Manchester,

where Sean is for us this morning.

I have not done this, but apparently

counting trains is important. It

shows how well the city is doing. --

cranes.

I cannot believe you have not done

it!

I am on the rooftop of one of

the new student accommodation

buildings here. You can

buildings here. You can make out

four cranes in the distance. Nine or

ten around me. It is a good

bellwether for the economy. A

consultancy firm

consultancy firm have a crane survey

out counting cranes, but also

looking at how much building is

going on. They believe building

activity is up more than it was

before the financial crisis. What is

driving the growth? I spoke to the

architect who built some towers in

London and who lives in a penthouse

at the top.

I think of this as a century from

the city. It is 45 minutes from the

street. But the city is in front of

you.

You can see an amazing view of

Manchester. How has it changed in

the last few years?

What has really

changed is we do not have as many

derelict car parks, we actually have

buildings filling in the little

gaps. We are getting a much more

tighter packed city, much more

European.

We are looking at this

league table of county cranes. Is

that a good way of measuring how

well a city is doing?

It is really

important about expressing

confidence within a city. To me, a

demonstration of that is buildings,

because we are providing new

offices, new homes, hotels or

visitors to the city.

Is there a

danger when all this building is

going on that commuters can be

forgotten?

We are creating a

community and little bit in the city

centre. In the last 20 years we have

seen a transformation. But it is

important every building is thought

about carefully, making sure it fits

its context and serves its purpose

and is a beautiful addition to the

skyline of the city.

It is interesting. It is not just

about building things as quickly as

you can whatever they look like. I

had some people to talk about it.

You put together the survey. You are

doing more than counting cranes.

What is driving this regional

growth?

I think what you are seeing

is the return of regional cities.

They are having a great time at the

moment. They are executing the plans

in place for a number of years. We

are seeing people wanting to live

and work in regional cities.

You say

having a great time. But many people

in these cities may not have seen a

pay rise for several years. The

companies employing them could be

doing better... What is the

connection between that?

I think we

are seeing more businesses wanting

to invest and to bring businesses to

the regional cities. We are seeing

younger people wanting to stay here

having graduated from universities

in Belfast, Leeds, wherever you are.

They are fuelling the growth of

these cities. OK, yes, wages are not

growing as quickly as we want, but

that will come.

It is interesting.

Younger people are wanting to live

in cities. But Manchester,

Birmingham, the rent, affordability

of buying a house, it is going up.

Prices are growing fast in regional

cities, but we are playing catch-up

to the rest of the country. Prices

were moderate after the financial

crisis. You have to remember those

who want to buy a home, many first

home buyers can use the Help to Buy

Scheme from the government. Capital

values are under the 600,000 mark.

The average values around here are

175,000, under the national average.

When you say it has residential

buildings on the skyline in

Manchester, what effect does it

have? If you want to rent or buy in

a city and they are building many

homes at the moment, does that mean

prices may come down?

It is not just

residential buildings, there are two

schemes. Regeneration, place making,

transport infrastructure. We also

have to remember that there is not a

lot of activity on the development

front in these regional cities. We

are playing catch up.

Just finally,

this is focusing on the big cities

outside of London. Cities and towns

across the UK, the construction

sector has not been doing well in

recent months.

We are seeing the

same trends in Bristol, Edinburgh,

Glasgow. It is happening across all

regional cities.

Thank you very

much. We will talk more about that

through the morning. We will finally

see the actual body of these cranes

as the sun comes up later and we

will count them for you.

I am so

glad you could do that for me on my

behalf. Perhaps you can see some

snow on the hills as well.

One more

thing...

Not windscreens again...

The European Championships. We have

a famous commentator who went

bananas

bananas during the Euros with the

late goal against Austria. He will

be on at 750 this morning.

And chilly overnight as well.

Vanessa Fletz on BBC

Radio London this

morning from 7am.

I'm back with the latest

from the BBC London Newsroom

in half an hour.

Hello, this is Breakfast,

with Louise Minchin and Dan Walker.

A leaked Government report predicts

Britain could be worse off

after Brexit for the next 15 years.

The confidential document was

prepared for the Brexit Secretary,

David Davis, but Number Ten insists

it fails to give the full picture.

Good morning, it is

Tuesday 30 January.

Also this morning: A manhunt

for a violent burglar behind

a series of million-pound raids.

Police say the levels

of planning point to someone

with military training.

Women at the BBC tell a group of MPs

they faced veiled threats

when they raised the

subject of equal pay.

Good morning.

Building activity at our biggest

cities outside of London is at its

highest level since the financial

crisis, so I am out looking at what

is driving the growth.

In sport: David Beckham

is back in business.

The star has launched

a football team in Miami.

And Carol has the weather.

Good morning. It is a cold and

frosty start for some of us,

especially in the south. For many it

will be dry, with lengthy sunny

spells today. However, in the

north-west of the country, showers

and strengthening winds and later in

the south-west we will see cloud

build with some drizzle coming in. I

will explain more of that, with some

more detail, in 15 minutes.

Good morning.

First, our main story: The impact

of Brexit could leave Britain

substantially worse off

over the next 15 years,

according to a leaked

Government document.

The analysis has been

carried out by the office

of the Brexit Secretary,

David Davis, and has been seen

by the online news service BuzzFeed.

In it, three different

scenarios are set out.

The first looks at what happens

if there is no EU trade deal,

saying that would lower

UK growth by 8%.

If the UK managed to secure a full

free trade agreement,

it estimates the loss at 5%.

Alternatively, if Britain kept

access to the single market,

a so-called soft Brexit,

it predicts the impact

would be just 2%.

But Government sources point out

that the document hasn't looked

at the impact of Number Ten's

preferred option, a bespoke trade

deal with the EU.

Let's speak to our political

correspondent Alex Forsyth,

who is at Westminster.

Alex, I know this is a leaked

document, but it doesn't paint a

particularly pretty picture for the

government.

No, it paints a gloomy

picture of the impact of Brexit on

the British economy. As you say,

under every model it sets out, the

economy would be worse off. There

are some good bits in here. It says

is a consequence of leaving the EU

and making trade deals with other

countries, like America, that will

have some positive effect on the

economy. What it doesn't outweigh

the overall impact of leaving.

However, there is a crucial caveat,

and that is that this leaked

document doesn't look at what the

government wants to achieve, and

that is a bespoke, tailor-made deal

with the European Union, and the

government thinks it can get that

because the UK is starting in a

position, of course, being very

close to the EU, which is in the

same as any other country. So it

says you can't look at these

off-the-shelf models on their own,

because we are looking for something

quite different. Nonetheless this

plays into Conservative Party

divisions over Brexit. Those who

didn't want the UK to leave the EU

says this proves our point, and

those who support the idea of Brexit

say you can't trust these kinds of

forecast. And with all of this

infighting going on within the

Conservative Party, we have had an

interview with the international

trade Secretary, Liam Fox. He urges

this colleagues to unite behind the

prime minister, and he says quite

frankly there are some people in the

party who will be disappointed, but

this message effectively is they

have got to put up with it. I think

the danger is, rather than trying to

calm the tensions in the Tory party,

that kind of message might just

stoke them instead.

We will be talking more about this

with BuzzFeed's political editor

Jim Waterson before 8:00am.

Police say a highly professional

former soldier is believed to have

carried out seven violent raids

with military-style planning.

Surrey Police have released CCTV

footage of a suspect,

who is accused of staking out

expensive properties

in the Home Counties

so that he knew their exact layout

and location of safes.

The owners were robbed

of jewellery and watches,

while being threatened

with a sawn-off shotgun.

Caught on CCTV, the burglar police

believed to have military training,

or involved in law enforcement.

Detectives say in each of the seven

raids he has shown signs of

specialist knowledge and skills,

staking out this targets for weeks,

studying their movements, and where

they keep their valuables, before he

makes this vicious move.

I turned

around chair and there was a guy in

a balaklava, dressed in dark

clothing, pointing a shotgun at my

head.

The intruder has stolen

jewellery, valuables and heirlooms

worth in total £1 million.

We

believe this person is not an

amateur burglar. We think this is

somebody who has specialist skills.

He uses firearms and cable ties to

do this, and he has an immense

amount of planning and prepping

before he goes and commits these

offences.

Targeting affluent homes

in Berkshire, Kent, Surrey and

Sussex, police say the burglar must

now be caught to prevent further

harm coming to anybody else.

The 1.6 million people who receive

the main disability benefit,

personal independence payments,

are to have their cases reviewed.

It follows a court ruling

that the Government had

discriminated against claimants

with mental health conditions.

Officials have calculated that

solving the issue will cost nearly

£4 billion, as our social

affairs correspondent

Michael Buchanan explains.

Homework time for Chloe Clark

and her son, Mckenzie.

She suffers from severe

anxiety, and cannot live

without a family member.

But as her condition was caused by a

psychological disorder rather than a

physical problem, she was denied

personal independence payments.

I do feel discriminated against.

I can't go out on my own.

my husband had to quit

work to look after me.

I went through a long period of no

contact with friends and family.

My children, they suffered.

Last month, the High Court found

mental health payments

for PIP were discriminatory.

Every person on PIP

will have their cases reviewed,

1.6 million people.

At the end of the process,

around 220,000 people

will get extra money.

The changes will cost the Government

£3.7 billion by 2022-3.

It will make a difference to a lot

of people's quality of life,

whether people can travel somewhere,

afford to heat their homes,

have additional food to eat.

Very basic differences it

will make to people's

quality of life.

Exactly who will benefit

from the review is not clear yet,

but for people like Chloe,

there is less reason to feel anger

towards a system they felt had

ignored their illnesses.

Women at the BBC have told MPs

they faced veiled threats

when they raised the

subject of equal pay.

The claims, which were made

to the Digital, Culture,

Media and Sport Select Committee,

come as the BBC announces plans

for a pay cap on its

news presenters.

Here is our media

correspondent David Sillito.

Some of the BBC's top news

presenters have already agreed

to have their pay cut,

but this goes a step further -

a ceiling of £320,000.

It is still more than twice

what the Prime Minister makes,

and will only affect

a handful of people.

But it is part of a wider audit

and report into staff salaries.

One key issue is highlighted

by the recent resignation

of Carrie Gracie as

the BBC's China editor.

She says a comparable male colleague

was making more than 50%

more than her.

This and other pay issues are now

being investigated by MPs.

What we want from the BBC is,

you know, a clear explanation

of the steps they will take to bring

about an open and transparent policy

on equal pay, and how they account

for some of the pay decisions that

were made in the past,

that saw some people being paid many

times more than their colleagues

for doing what was essentially

the same job.

All of this follows the publication

last summer of the pay deals

of the BBC's top stars.

The women campaigning for equal pay

say they have not been consulted,

and so have no confidence

in today's report.

But the BBC says it is committed

to equal pay, and says today's

proposals will make significant

changes to the way it

pays its on-air stars.

David Sillito, BBC News.

The director of the CIA says the USA

is ready to take action

against the North Korean leader

Kim Jong-un to prevent

a possible nuclear attack.

North Korea successfully launched

inter-continental missiles last

year, and the CIA director,

Mike Pompeo, says they have a range

of options to stop Kim Jong-un

making further progress.

He was talking exclusively

to the BBC's security correspondent

Gordon Corera.

There is a set of military tasks

that might have to be undertaken,

and they would, in fact,

cause enormous damage.

And our President

and our senior leaders

are very mindful of that.

But we are going to present a range

of alternatives, other ways to

assist in the President's policy.

Do

think it is possible to restrict the

ability of Kim Jong-un to fire those

missiles, to take him out or affect

the ability to launch those

missiles.

Many things are possible.

Fall asleep on a train on the

surprise you are likely to wake up

to is missing your stop, but one

woman woke up to a cash gift from a

stranger. She had been talking on

the phone about her financial

worries, took a nap, and woke up to

find 100 quid tucked in a nap can on

her lap. She said the mystery donor

is a fantastic human being. --

napkin.

That is just a lovely story,

we like your stories of kindness.

Did they leave a note, or anything?

No, they were just listening in,

apparently, to the conversation. A

nice thing to wake up to, isn't it?

Although initially you would be,

like Tom who has left this tissue on

my lap?

It is like when someone paid

your bill in a restaurant.

And I

couldn't say thank you, because they

just walked out and left.

That makes

everyone happy.

Personal independence payments

were introduced to help people

with disabilities

and health conditions.

But last year, changes were made

to the way it was awarded

which limited the amount of support

people with mental health

conditions could receive.

The High Court has ruled that those

changes were unfair.

Now, 1.6 million of the main

disability benefit claims will be

reviewed.

This is kind of a series of

improvements. They certainly really

pleased me, because it shows that

the government can be controlling

and careful with money, but also

spend it on the right things for

people who are vulnerable and who

need our support.

Joining us from Westminster now

is Ayaz Manji from the charity MIND.

Sorry, that is not the right guest!

Here we go. Thank you very much for

being with us, eventually. A bit of

a technical issue there. Let's grab

a word with you about these PIP

payments. Describe for us first how

these work for people living with

mental health conditions.

Right, so

the changes the government

introduced last year, limited

support for anyone who experienced

overwhelming psychological distress

related to conditions like anxiety

or post-traumatic stress disorder.

And because of that distress,

couldn't leave the house most days.

So what this extra support will mean

for more than 220,000 people is that

it will be able to pay for things

like support workers, taxis, the

people who struggle to use public

transport, all the things that can

help people live independently, and

kind of make choices about their own

lives.

Have you got any examples you

could give us to paint a clearer

picture of the sort of impact that

these payments have had?

Absolutely,

so a few weeks ago I was talking to

somebody who experienced very severe

post-traumatic stress disorder, and

most day she can't leave the house.

When she does she says she

experiences panic attacks and very

severe flashbacks. But she can do

that if she has so many to support

her. What she was telling me is that

if she can get access to PIP than

she could pay for somebody one day a

week so that she can go out and do

the weekly shop and do some errands,

and feel like she had again more

control over her own life. That is

the kind of impact this money is

going to have for thousands and

thousands of people.

The government

has received an awful lot of

criticism over this scheme. Is this

a sign of understanding the

complaints of people, and maybe the

government moving from your

perspective on the right direction?

Absolutely, the thing that we would

say is that we really shouldn't be

in this position in the first place.

When these changes were introduced,

we were very clear that they didn't

live up to the commitment to treat

people with mental health issues

equally. We see this as a step in

the right direction and we hope it

will be one step towards addressing

the many issues we can see, because

too often people with mental health

problems experience a lot of stress

and anxiety when they go in for

these assessments.

I suppose the

thing is, a review is one thing, the

most important part is what comes of

that review.

Absolutely, and one

thing we are really pleased about is

that the government already said

that no one will have to go through

an unnecessary face-to-face

assessment. I think what is really

important now is to find a way of

reviewing these claims that it

simple, free from pressure for

people, and making sure that people

who are entitled to have extra

support can get that support.

Thank

you very much for talking to us this

morning, I am glad we got the right

guest in the end, as well!

Just checking if Carol is there.

We

will talk to him about creative

industries later on.

A beautiful

picture behind you.

industries later on.

A beautiful

picture behind you. Thank you. They

are some frosty strands of grass.

Yesterday it was 12. Now, -5. A drop

of 15 degrees. Frost, but not

everywhere, and not in towns and

cities. Elsewhere, you might have to

scrape the windscreen. In the

north-west, a different story. Cloud

piling in from the Atlantic to be

introducing many showers in the

north-west. More showers today. Dry

further south. A lot of clear skies.

Fabulous last night. You can see the

blue hue indicating how cold air is.

Temperatures between -2 and

generally about plus two. Wales in

northern England and Northern

Ireland, clear skies. Sunshine.

Showers in the north and north-west

of Scotland. Rain at lower levels in

the mountains will have snow.

Breezy. Through the day,

strengthening winds. Showers

continuing. Northern Ireland, north

England, Wales, hanging on to the

sunshine. Through the day, cloud

coming in with any system across the

Isles of Scilly, Cornwall, and

Devon. --A new system. We will be

looking at sunny spells, the lengthy

list of which will be in the south

and east. -- most lengthy. This

system will go south-east and this

one north-east. They will meet and

continue south-east. Behind that,

cold. Snow showers at lower levels

increasingly. Ahead of that, not as

cold as the previous night. All of

this rain is because of two weather

fronts beginning to slip away onto

the near continent through tomorrow.

Behind that, north-westerly winds. A

cold feel. Increasingly, snowy at

lower levels. 200 metres. The cold

air which is the mild air and we

will feel a wind. -- pushes away. A

breezy day everywhere tomorrow. A

bunch of showers in Scotland,

northern England, and Northern

Ireland. This is where snow showers

will go down to 200 metres Further

south, showers are mostly of rain.

Possibly see in some sleet here and

there. -- seeing. Thursday. System

is not far away from the north-east

of Scotland and the north west.

Sunshine. 6-8. Friday, a ridge of

high pressure moving in settling

things down. Early on Friday, these

are the temperatures at three

o'clock in the afternoon. Rain is

clearing. Saturday, 6-8 with showers

dotted here and there. Back back to

you. Thank you for taking us through

all of that. We will see you soon,

you. Thank you for taking us through

all of that. We will see you soon,

half an hour.

Some nice pictures.

Frosty, but nice.

Just be sure to have a CD on hand

for your screen.

Don't use a CD. The

Mirror.

The BBC threatens to...

Sorry, BBC threats to women starts

over equal pay. I could not read

that. -- stars. A possible soldier

thief. And The Daily Telegraph are

also talking about that story. They

will discuss it at the Select

Committee tomorrow. A reporting to

pay at the BBC coming out this

morning. -- report into.

morning. -- report into. And an

age-gap romance.

Theresa May faces

growing calls to quit. This picture

is of the Prince of Wales looking at

the exhibition of works of his

ancestor, King Charles I, who was

apparently a prolific art collector.

I am looking at what we will talk

about.

One of the

about.

One of the producers of

Mastermind has given an interview to

the Times saying the issues is

that... Over 250 people asked to do

Harry Potter. Only one can do it.

Alton Towers was one of

Alton Towers was one of the --

Fawlty Towers.

I wanted to do

Friends.

Friends.

I did the Gunpowder Plot.

Mike Bushell and Tim Muffett went

on. See if you can

on. See if you can guess what their

specialist subjects were. Bit you

Richard

Richard -- Pituitary gland.

A

12-inch plate. Fallopian. Icarus. A

dead cow. You got them all right.

What was yours?

The human body. It

is just too broad.

I did science at

school.

school.

That is it, more than 20

years ago. Jim Arthur did the films

of Danny Boyle. And Mike Bushell was

Harry Partridge.

Harry Partridge.

I came second. I

did not lose. You have to take what

you can.

I got the second highest score of