29/07/2014 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. We're reasonably happy about

the general weather theme through the next week or so.

Detail towards the weekend and beyond,

a little more elusive perhaps.

But at the moment, this is how

the pressure pattern's looking.

Low pressure to the North of the UK,

high pressure away towards the Southwest -

not an unusual pattern for the latter part of July.

But areas of low pressure

across this part of the world

steered by the jet stream -

that high-level river of fast-moving air.

Up until recently, the jet stream's

been well to the North of the UK.

That allowed that very warm air

to come up from the Mediterranean regions from the South.

Now the jet stream is beginning to sink

further southwards, that opens the door to cooler Atlantic air

to move in and for those low-pressure systems to come further South.

The big question at the moment is just how far South

the jet is going to go over the next five or six days?

That has an impact, of course, on the forecast.

In the shorter term, at lower levels

the wind's pushing in from the West

and quite briskly again on Wednesday across Scotland,

Northern Ireland, Northern parts of England,

bringing a scattering of showers.

A little more unstable the air

as it's closer to that area of low pressure.

Come further South and it's a rather drier story.

Certainly feeling on the cool side

in that brisk breeze.

Temperatures 17 degrees at best

across many parts of Scotland.

Eastern Scotland rather warmer

with some shelter from that wind to the East of the Grampians.

Come further South and there will be

a fair bit of cloud around through the afternoon.

These sort of temperatures - 18 to 22 -

about average for this time of year.

Up to 23 or 24 across Southeastern parts.

Not quite as high as recent days

but still a respectable temperature

for the latter part of July.

Thursday is a very similar picture.

Perhaps some heavier showers around across Northern areas.

Again breezy but the stronger winds may be edging a little

bit further Southwards but very similar temperatures -

mid to high teens in the North,

low to mid-20s in the South.

So what happens beyond that?

Well, Thursday through into Friday

you can start to see

the low-pressure system, not very well formed,

definitely sinking that bit further Southwards

as high pressure withdraws into

the Western parts of the Atlantic.

So a more unsettled look to things generally.

Detail beginning to get a little tricky by this time.

We're talking about a mix of sunny intervals

and scattered showers,

brisk winds perhaps in the South

rather than in the North -,

closer to the centre of that low -

very similar temperatures.

Then we go into the weekend.

The best indication at the moment

is that, as far as showers are concerned,

Saturday is more likely to see

rather more in the way of showers.

Still some brightness in-between those

but if we do catch a shower

it could be on the heavy side.

For Sunday, the threat of the showers

beginning to move away

to some extent, pushing away towards the East

allowing more in the way of

dry and bright weather to develop.

And again similar temperatures -

17 to 18 in the North,

to around the low to mid-20s in the South.

Certainly don't write off summer yet, that has to be the message.

Looking further ahead, through the first week of August,

cooler than recently.

We've had some very high temperatures in many places.

Still a bit of sunshine around at times

but we still have to cater for

some outbreaks of rain, perhaps more particularly across Northern areas.

With low pressure in the frame,

it could be quite breezy at times as well.

But it will all depend,

thanks to the jet stream,

on the exact position of

these areas of low pressure.

High pressure to the South.

Just how much that moves North and South

will have a big influence on

exactly what sort of weather we can expect.

So a little bit mixed through the weekend and beyond.