23/02/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

There's a bit of a complication

towards the end of this week and into the weekend,

but the main themes for the rest of February

and into the first part of March are cold.

In fact, it could potentially be

the longest spell of cold weather for quite some time.

Quite a bit of sunshine by day, widespread night-time frost

and, yes, some wintry showers.

Certainly snow showers across northern Scotland during Tuesday.

A bit of snow in the showers over the hills

across north-east England.

Mostly rain showers at lower levels through the day here.

A bit of cloud across parts of the south,

but overall, a much brighter day here compared to Monday,

and with some sunshine, we could get to 9 Celsius.

More typically 5 to 7 degrees,

feeling colder with a bit of wind across northern Scotland

that continues to blow

and continues to bring snow showers here on Tuesday evening.

So, potentially, it could be icy.

Look at the map changing colour. It's going blue widely.

Hard frost likely during Tuesday night and Wednesday morning,

temperatures widely below freezing.

Maybe as low as -10

where there's snow on the ground across northern Scotland.

And we'll keep snow showers here.

There'll be some wintriness,

some sleet and snow mixed in to the showers,

over north-west England, North Wales and Northern Ireland during the day.

But the showers will be scattered

and for many, it's another dry, bright day,

and after we start with that frost, we're up to 4 to 7 or 8 degrees.

Still a lot colder in northern Scotland.

Frosty start again on Thursday. It's a similar day -

dry and bright for many, sunny spells, a few showers.

And then the complication that I talked about earlier.

This band of blue, a band of rain, a weather front,

trying to push in.

There's always uncertainty after a cold spell

about when these weather fronts will push away the cold air.

And it's all to do with this area of low pressure,

where and by how much will that intensify.

With the cold air in place,

there is the likelihood of some snow as the wet weather arrives.

At the moment, Wales potentially seeing a little bit

during the course of Friday.

But we need to firm up on the details

because of the complications to do with that low pressure.

It is still with us as we go into the weekend.

Why the uncertainty?

Well, again, we have to look high up in the atmosphere at the jet stream.

We are used to the jet stream driving across the Atlantic

and across the UK from west to east.

But as we go into the weekend, it's in a slightly strange position.

The jet stream is driving south to the west of the UK.

That means it could pick up that low pressure over Ireland,

or it could develop it across the Bay of Biscay.

It's actually all tied in

with what's going on in the United States,

which is actually causing a bit of a ripple, if you like,

in the rope that is the jet stream, pushing it north

and then driving it southwards with some intensity, some vigour.

So, I say, uncertainty about where that low pressure develops,

but we end up through the weekend, into the earlier part of next week,

with low pressure sitting over Spain and Portugal.

Could be quite a wet weekend here.

For us, we're on the northern side of this area of low pressure,

which means the winds start coming in from the east,

something we have not seen much of so far this winter.

Easterly winds are never warm.

Cold winds look like dominating through the weekend

and into the earlier part of next week.

Generally quite dry when the wind's coming from the north-east,

but they always pick up some moisture over the North Sea,

which means eastern areas will be favoured

for seeing the showers from those winds.

Some sleet and snow potentially mixed in.

So, definitely as we head into March, it'll feel like winter,

with the cold winds, hard frost and some wintry showers,

particularly in the east.

As always, we'll be firming up on the details over the next few days.

Goodbye.

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