01/04/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


01/04/2016

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Yesterday, we were talking about the provisional March statistics

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and how, overall, the month was pretty average.

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But there were some significant regional variations,

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and this is another example.

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This is the rainfall through the month of March 2016,

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showing that, actually, across Scotland and Northern Ireland,

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it was a pretty dry month.

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The brown colours where it's drier than average,

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the blue where it's been wetter than average.

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Wales was about average, but across England, particularly in the east,

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it was significantly wetter than average.

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Quite interesting, because eastern England was one of the places

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where the winter as a whole was quite dry.

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And it's also quite interesting because the first day of April

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is providing pretty much the polar opposite,

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with the wettest conditions across Scotland and Northern Ireland

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and it should, by and large, be a dry day across England and Wales,

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although some rain will trickle into the north-west later on.

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Temperature-wise, where it's wet and windy, just 8 or 9 Celsius.

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Where the sun shines longest, across the south-east, 13 or 14.

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The Moray Firth may stay dry,

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and with some brightness here, we could get to 12 or 13 degrees.

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The rain will continue to trickle across parts of England and Wales

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for a time on Friday night.

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But how far south it gets is open to doubt a little bit.

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This weather front is going to grind to a halt

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before starting to pivot back further north on Saturday

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as low pressure approaches from the south-west.

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When we get these wiggling, waving weather fronts,

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there's always some uncertainty about where they lie.

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But what we are confident about

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is that as low pressure dominates to the west of the UK,

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it will draw up the winds from the south-east,

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so it will be turning milder.

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For some, it will still be soggy on Saturday

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where that weather front's sitting,

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probably across northern England, North Wales to start with,

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into southern Scotland and Northern Ireland by the end of the day.

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Further north, generally dry and bright, but still cool.

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Further south, it's starting to warm up,

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the temperatures more widely in the teens. As it warms up,

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there is the risk of some systems coming up from the south,

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bringing some heavy, potentially thundery rain.

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A lot of uncertainty about the position and intensity

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of any storms on Saturday night,

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and there could still be some around,

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particularly across parts of Scotland, on Sunday.

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A few showers developing through the day,

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but for many, it'll be drier across central areas, and warmer, too.

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We could get to 17 degrees,

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maybe 18 if the sun comes out across the south-east.

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Low pressure is still dominating

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into the early part of the new working week.

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Where this weather front lies, again, open to a lot of uncertainty.

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But it does look as if there could still be a fair bit of rain around,

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but it is a warm front

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so, again, relatively warm air coming up across the south.

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Could see temperatures climbing into the high teens.

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And still on Tuesday, it's a messy picture,

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with low-pressure systems nearby, so showers never too far away.

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But the air still, at this stage, mostly coming up from the south

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and bringing some warmer conditions.

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However, as we go through the middle part of next the week,

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we are expecting more of an Atlantic influence.

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The low-pressure systems starting to come in from the north-west,

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so the surface winds will be more westerly,

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bringing in the Atlantic air.

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And what's driving that is the winds high up in the atmosphere.

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A change in the jet stream, coming more in from the Atlantic,

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bringing low-pressure systems

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through the latter half of next week.

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There is a lot of uncertainty, though,

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about how this starts to come about

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and how quickly we start to see this change

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from the southerly winds bringing the warmer weather

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to the westerly winds.

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Eventually, the westerly winds will return,

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meaning the days will turn a little cooler.

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There will always be some showers around

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when the weather's coming in from the Atlantic,

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but the nights will also be a lot milder

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than the past couple of frosty ones.

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