12/04/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


12/04/2016

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Hello again. Yesterday I spoke about the battle taking place

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between high pressure, low pressure, warm air and cold air.

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That battle has not been resolved.

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There is considerable uncertainty in the outlook.

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We'll get there in the moment. This is Tuesday's weather though.

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The rain is further north.

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To the south we've got some sunshine and some showers.

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If there is any sunshine in Scotland it's in the north-west Highlands.

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The rest of Scotland looks cloudy as does Northern Ireland

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and northern England.

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There will be some outbreaks of rain and that rain could be quite

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heavy in northern England and temperatures will be quite

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a bit lower in north-west of England than they were on Monday.

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It's to the south where we've got the warmth in response

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from some sunshine, but that will bubble up the cloud,

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Very hit and miss and a lot of places will be dry.

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But there's a signal for some heavy

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and potentially thundery ones in the south-west at this stage.

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But once you lose the power of the sun so the showers fade away

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and it dries off again.

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But to the north we keep that thicker cloud, we keep the rain

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and drizzle.

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Temperatures about five, six degrees.

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A little chillier maybe across the south where we break the cloud

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and that could develop a little bit of mist and fog.

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Here's the pressure pattern for Wednesday

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though, still dominated by a big low pressure to the south of us

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and that weather front is focusing rain and drizzle,

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and perhaps northern England as well.

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A bit lighter possibly by this stage. To the south some sunshine.

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Look at the showers developing.

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The heavier ones may be across Wales and the south-west.

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You could get 17 degrees in London.

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Contrast that with seven in Aberdeen.

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Now, subtle change as we head into Thursday.

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Low pressure close to the south-west but high pressure is trying

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to topple into more northern areas of the UK.

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What that will do with the rising pressure there is tend to

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peter out a lot of the rain so it won't be as wet

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across Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland.

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It's to the south where it will see most of the showers again,

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some more persistent rain in the south-west perhaps,

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because here we are closer to that area of low pressure.

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Now into Friday. And Friday looks a bit of a mess to be honest with you.

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I think many places will catch a shower or two.

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Something more than that likely as well.

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We've still got those temperature contrasts.

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Chilly in the north, not as warm in the south

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because we've got some wetter weather around.

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And we've essentially got low pressure combining with

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the weather fronts moving down from the north.

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Once that pushes through we'll introduce some cleaner

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air around that area of high pressure.

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So it should be drier for Scotland and Northern Ireland,

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some sunshine perhaps.

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Still for England and Wales we're not clearing away that rain at all.

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So things are moving much more slowly now.

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Then we head into more uncertainty beyond that because high pressure is

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trying to push in, and around the edge of that we've got this

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push of colder air, drier air that's forcing that area

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of low pressure away.

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So over the course of next week high pressure could

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build across the UK

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and we may introduce a slightly milder south-easterly airflow.

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But low pressure's not far away.

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This is the most likely scenario. With higher pressure of course

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it's going to be drier.

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The nights may be chilly

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but it should be dry with some sunshine during the day.

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However a less likely scenario is that pressure will be lower and

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that low pressure that wasn't far away could push back into the UK.

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So that will bring a very different picture.

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Instead up the sunshine you're more likely, especially

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in the south-west, to catch some thicker cloud

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and some rain at times.

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A lot to play for in the next few days.

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