27/05/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Maybe it's just me, but the weather patterns

do seem do get rather more complicated as

a bank holiday weekend approaches, and this one is no different.

There will be a lot of fine weather around through this weekend

and when the sun's out, it'll feel warm,

but there will be heavy, potentially thundery, showers,

and Monday - oh, Monday - that is really giving us

some headaches at the moment, as we'll see in just a moment.

First of all, we've got to get through Friday -

staying quite grey in parts of the east,

damp and drizzly for a time

through the central belt.

Sunshine elsewhere, and the potential

for heavy, thundery, quite vicious storms

across parts of Wales and south-west England

but they'll be well scattered -

many places dry and bright,

bit of sunshine, feeling warm.

Sunny spells, too, across northern Scotland,

but distinctly cooler on some North Sea coasts,

where it stays rather grey.

Now, those thundery showers may take

a while to fade away

during the course of Friday night

and there's potential, actually,

early Saturday morning, to see further storms

heading up across the south,

warm and humid, here,

a little bit cooler, elsewhere.

Temperatures in northern Scotland, again,

well down into single figures.

Into the long weekend,

and again, it could be quite grey on

some of these North Sea coasts during Saturday,

and again, the potential for further thunderstorms,

across the south, generally, particularly in the afternoon,

over Wales and south-west England,

where it'll be quite warm and humid,

we could reach 21 Celsius.

Many places, though, will be dry and bright,

a bit of sunshine -

we'll see temperatures into the mid to high teens.

On Sunday, the greatest risk of heavy,

possibly thundery, showers is across the far north-west,

but there is some rain not far away

in the near continent and that, as I said,

is the start of the big question marks,

as we go into Monday.

We've got an area of low pressure,

but it's approaching from the east

and that is one of the major complications,

because usually, our low pressure systems

come in from the west,

and the big question mark,

how far in will that low come?

This was the set-up yesterday -

we were expecting the low

to mostly stay away,

a bit of rain maybe grazing the east coast.

Now, most of the computer models

are taking that low

a bit further inland,

and the most likely scenario at the moment

is that many eastern areas will

have a wet day on Monday,

but the west could stay dry.

I say "could", because there's another scenario

where the low pressure drifts right across the UK

and most of us have a bit of a soggy one on Monday.

But this is the most likely scenario at the moment,

with eastern parts of England in particular looking wet.

There will be a brisk and cold wind as well

and temperatures really struggle,

whereas many parts of the west

could have a fine day on Monday.

The question marks arising from this low pressure

because it's coming in from the east,

as I mentioned earlier.

If you think about a scenario

where you're throwing a paper ball into a bin,

if you do it with your stronger hand,

you may get it in the bin eight

or nine times out of ten,

but then switch to your weaker hand,

then you may only get that bit of paper in the bin

four or five times out of ten.

That's what the computer models struggle with,

because it's coming in

from the east, not the west.

That's why there's so much uncertainty.

By Tuesday, we pretty much

end up with low pressure across the UK,

so most places, cloudy with outbreaks of rain.

The north-west may be favoured

for staying dry and bright

and then we go into next week.

Now, with uncertainty in the shorter term,

looking even further ahead,

there will be uncertainty again,

but it does look as if the low

will hang around for the first part of next week,

but high pressure tries to build in

later next week, which may start to dry things up.

It always looks pretty cool next week,

no signs of anything really hot.

It should steadily dry up

and with the high pressure closest to the north,

that's where we may well find the brightest weather

for the second half of next week.

Stay tuned to the forecast.

WIND WHISTLES

'I've had a most rare vision.'