12/09/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Good evening. It may well be the meteorological autumn now

but the weather has other ideas

and summer makes a return this week.

And if we do peak at 31 degrees on Tuesday,

that will be the first 31

we've seen somewhere in the UK

for about 40 years

but it's not for all, the heat wave.

It's mostly for eastern areas because further west,

already the winds have escalated to gale force,

even severe gale in the far north-west

and accompanying those strong winds, some heavy rain.

But to the east of that weather front,

those southerly winds are coming

from the north of Africa

so bringing some very warm air

so it will be quite exceptional,

the heat, across eastern areas

for this time of year.

And that's despite more cloud.

Now, there could well be some fog around

for the rush at this time of year

with the nights getting longer -

that's something to watch for.

It'll certainly be a wetter day

for Northern Ireland, western and central Scotland,

so here, although it's warm rain,

it will be quite a muggy and cloudy day.

Whilst even elsewhere where we have more clouds,

it's hazy rather than sunny,

we'll see temperatures a couple of degrees

up on those of Sunday. Fine evening, Monday,

for many eastern areas

but you can see the heavy pulses of rain

running along this weather front

and that's going to be the difficulty this week -

to see exactly where and when

the heaviest pulses of rain will be.

But an uncomfortable night, Monday into Tuesday,

and that will be a theme

as well through the coming week.

Those sort of temperatures on Monday night

more akin to the daytime temperatures

at this time of year.

So that weather front is still slow-moving

and stuck across the western side of the country

so Northern Ireland, western and northern Scotland,

western Wales, western England

are most at risk from some thundery downpours.

However, elsewhere, with the light winds, again,

a little bit of morning mist and fog

but temperatures really starting

to leap up and respond to that

southerly wind and that sunshine,

that strong September sunshine

still on Tuesday.

Tuesday night, again,

very uncomfortably warm and muggy,

high humidities, even where

we have the rain further west.

Now, come Wednesday,

you may have noticed that low pressure starting to develop

so there's a hint that we could start

to pick up some heavy thundery showers

towards the south but for most of us,

if anything, the warmth will be

more widespread on Wednesday.

We may not see the 30 or 31

but it will be more widely warm

across the country.

We do start to pick up a bit of

an easterly coming onshore into

the north-east of Scotland and north-east of England

on Wednesday and Thursday so a little cooler here

and this low pressure developing

does cut off that southerly wind from Africa

and so hence temperatures start to dip down again

from Wednesday into Thursday.

But still that risk mainly in the west

and eventually the south on Thursday

with many other areas

seeing a lot of warm, dry weather, hazy sunshine.

It now looks as if it'll be Friday

before the Atlantic air kicks in

and pushes those weather fronts eastwards.

They'll go with a bang

cos there will be some heavy and thundery rain

associated with that breakdown but it will freshen up

quite significantly behind that weather front,

a change of type, if you like, by the end of the week.

So for this week, not fine for all.

Windy and showery in western areas

but heat and humidity

dominating across central

and eastern areas in particular.

Thereafter, we get back

into the Atlantic flow

but we are watching this -

it's a tropical system,

it's got tropical air around it

so that might provide another

fly in the ointment

towards next weekend

and perhaps the end of next weekend.

And then further ahead,

it looks as if the low pressures

will establish towards the north

and the Azores high hang on near the south

but obviously the fly in the ointment

could well be some tropical air

mixed in next weekend.

Prior to that, the potential for some exceptional warmth.

As ever, there's more online.

This is a trailer for BBC Four's conceptual art season.