24/09/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello there. With a storm interacting with a jet stream,

the weather's going to get pretty complicated as we go through

the early and middle part of the next week.

Before then, though, the weekend weather reasonably straightforward.

Wet and windy weather pitching edging into the west,

particularly western Scotland and Northern Ireland,

whereas many central and eastern areas having quite

a warm and sunny Saturday.

That all leads into a Sunday where we're back pretty much all in

the same boat, a fresher feel with sunshine and showers for most of us.

The weekend's weather is dominated by a low pressure system and

particularly this trailing cold front.

That will bring the rain, the isobars squeezing together,

telling us it's going to get windy,

particularly wet and windy

in western Scotland.

By the end of the day here

the rain could be causing a few problems,

building up and building up.

We'll see the wet weather

also across Northern Ireland,

quite a soggy Saturday year,

eventually fringing into westernmost

parts of England and Wales.

But the bulk of England and Wales

dry with southerly winds

It will be warm in the sunshine

and 23 or 24 degrees Celsius.

The weather front, though,

does eventually stagger its way

across most places during Saturday night,

bringing some wet weather for many,

easing off a little bit

as the front works its way eastwards

and noticeably changing the wind direction.

No longer a southerly,

now we've got a westerly.

Still likely to have that weather front

bringing cloud and some rain

across eastern England for a time on Sunday,

but once it scoots through,

we're left with sunshine

and, particularly in the west,

plenty of showers

and because of that change of wind direction

it'll feel fresher, feel cooler.

Temperatures more likely to be

15 or 16 degrees Celsius for most of us.

That could lead into a chilly night

on Sunday night and into Monday morning

and then things get complicated.

On Monday, we start to see some outbreaks

of showery rain drifting in

from the Atlantic.

And we have to look way out

into the Atlantic for why things are

getting more complicated.

This - we've been tracking it for a number of days -

is Karl intensifying,

likely to be a hurricane through the course of the weekend,

close by to Bermuda, bringing a lot of heavy rain for a time here.

And then the storm system tracks its way slowly northwards

and becomes engaged with the jet stream and the more

typical low-pressure systems that usually affect our shores and

as this one gets sort of subsumed, absorbed, by this area of low

pressure, that's why things get complicated,

Monday and particularly into Tuesday.

It's injecting some moisture, it's injecting some energy,

and that does tend to create

uncertainty because of that

extra warmth that it's picked up from the tropics.

It'll interact with the jet as well and that also adds to the confusion.

Because this doesn't happen all that often,

often the computers models get

a little bit confused and mixed up,

which is why there's a lot of uncertainty about Tuesday's

forecast and indeed Wednesday's, but it does look as though there

will be a low-pressure system close to the UK.

And because of that extra energy, that extra oomph from Karl,

it may well be packing quite a punch in terms of its wind strength.

We need to watch these blustery conditions on Tuesday across parts

of northern Britain in particular,

so we'll be keeping our eyes on that.

Now, once that system has gone through and, again,

lots of uncertainty about the timing and the strength of that system,

it does tend to open the door to more weather systems piling in from

the Atlantic. The jet stream is getting more and more active,

so we're going to see

more of these weather systems moving through.

So often getting quite windy towards next week and later next week.

Changeable spells of weather, so, yes,

there'll be some dry and bright weather,

then it'll turn a little bit wet and towards the end of next week,

there are some signs

it may then start to turn a little bit cooler. Goodbye.