16/12/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. Want to know what the weather is going to do on Christmas Day?

Well, you've come to the wrong place.

No, it's not quite as bad as that

but Christmas is still nine or ten days away

and a lot can change weather-wise in that period of time,

but we are beginning to firm up our ideas so stay tuned for that.

At the moment we've got mild air wafting up from the south,

we've got a front across some western areas

bringing some rain initially

across Northern Ireland,

pushing into Scotland

during the course of the day

and some western fringes

of England and Wales.

But on either side of that,

it's dry, a lot of cloud

for England and Wales,

limited brightness here,

some late sunshine, though,

developing across Northern Ireland.

Another mild day,

temperatures 9, 10, 11 degrees, typically.

Now, as we head into Friday night,

a lot's going to depend on the track

of this weather front as it topples down

out of Scotland and Northern Ireland

and into England and Wales,

because, behind that,

the skies begin to clear

and under the clearest of the skies,

the temperatures will fall quite quickly

across Northern Ireland, Scotland

and perhaps northern England.

You could well wake up to scenes like this.

Yes, a change in the weather.

A frost around.

Now the southern extent of that frost

a little bit uncertain.

It does look as though southern areas

will probably start the day on Saturday

with a lot of cloud

and perhaps some areas of fog,

whereas further north it'll be clear and crisp

with the best of the sunshine,

but not as mild as it has been.

Temperatures here at 6s and 7s,

relatively mild still further south,

up into double figures in one or two places.

High pressure keeps things quiet

across the south as we go into Sunday.

But a change in the weather further north, we're going to see

a front introducing south-westerly winds,

milder south-westerly winds,

so temperatures bounce back up again

across northern parts of the UK

and in one or two sheltered areas, for example,

in north-east Scotland,

we could get as high as, what,

11, 12, 13 degrees.

Further south, not as mild,

but probably a bit more cloud around here.

Quiet again on Monday

with high pressure mostly in control.

We've a trailing weather front

across the far north,

a pretty weak feature,

producing the odd spots of rain,

but otherwise a lot of dry weather.

A fair bit of cloud, they'll be some

lingering fog patches around too,

so perhaps not all that much

in the way of sunshine

and temperatures generally a little bit cooler

than they have been

and that cooling trend

continues into Tuesday, actually.

Where the fog lingers, it could be quite

a chilly day with highs

of no more than, what, 5 or 6 degrees.

You'll notice up to the north-west, though,

and area of rain arriving

and that could well be a sign

of a change in the weather

later on in the week -

the first of a set of weather fronts

coming in off the Atlantic.

In fact, let's go the other side of the Atlantic

to find the source of this potential game changer.

This was the scene on Thursday in Buffalo, New York.

Blizzard conditions with temperatures of minus 10 degrees.

Now these sorts of conditions are not heading in our direction,

but indirectly could have an impact

on our weather as we approach Christmas.

We're going to see lobes of Arctic air coming down across

North America during the course of this weekend

meeting warm tropical air coming up from the south

and where the two clash,

that tends to supercharge the jet stream.

The jet stream driving across the Atlantic as we approach Christmas

and with a strong jet stream,

we tend to get much more active weather systems,

wind and rain, and at this stage it looks more likely that as we go

into Christmas weekend, that these sort of scenes will occur.

A lot of wind and rain,

less likely are scenes like this with frosts and snow.

Well, it's an outside bet at this stage,

but things can change and I will update you again this time tomorrow.