16/12/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


16/12/2016

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Hello. Want to know what the weather is going to do on Christmas Day?

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Well, you've come to the wrong place.

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No, it's not quite as bad as that

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but Christmas is still nine or ten days away

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and a lot can change weather-wise in that period of time,

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but we are beginning to firm up our ideas so stay tuned for that.

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At the moment we've got mild air wafting up from the south,

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we've got a front across some western areas

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bringing some rain initially

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across Northern Ireland,

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pushing into Scotland

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during the course of the day

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and some western fringes

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of England and Wales.

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But on either side of that,

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it's dry, a lot of cloud

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for England and Wales,

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limited brightness here,

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some late sunshine, though,

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developing across Northern Ireland.

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Another mild day,

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temperatures 9, 10, 11 degrees, typically.

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Now, as we head into Friday night,

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a lot's going to depend on the track

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of this weather front as it topples down

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out of Scotland and Northern Ireland

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and into England and Wales,

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because, behind that,

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the skies begin to clear

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and under the clearest of the skies,

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the temperatures will fall quite quickly

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across Northern Ireland, Scotland

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and perhaps northern England.

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You could well wake up to scenes like this.

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Yes, a change in the weather.

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A frost around.

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Now the southern extent of that frost

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a little bit uncertain.

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It does look as though southern areas

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will probably start the day on Saturday

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with a lot of cloud

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and perhaps some areas of fog,

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whereas further north it'll be clear and crisp

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with the best of the sunshine,

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but not as mild as it has been.

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Temperatures here at 6s and 7s,

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relatively mild still further south,

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up into double figures in one or two places.

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High pressure keeps things quiet

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across the south as we go into Sunday.

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But a change in the weather further north, we're going to see

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a front introducing south-westerly winds,

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milder south-westerly winds,

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so temperatures bounce back up again

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across northern parts of the UK

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and in one or two sheltered areas, for example,

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in north-east Scotland,

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we could get as high as, what,

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11, 12, 13 degrees.

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Further south, not as mild,

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but probably a bit more cloud around here.

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Quiet again on Monday

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with high pressure mostly in control.

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We've a trailing weather front

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across the far north,

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a pretty weak feature,

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producing the odd spots of rain,

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but otherwise a lot of dry weather.

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A fair bit of cloud, they'll be some

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lingering fog patches around too,

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so perhaps not all that much

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in the way of sunshine

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and temperatures generally a little bit cooler

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than they have been

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and that cooling trend

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continues into Tuesday, actually.

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Where the fog lingers, it could be quite

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a chilly day with highs

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of no more than, what, 5 or 6 degrees.

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You'll notice up to the north-west, though,

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and area of rain arriving

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and that could well be a sign

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of a change in the weather

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later on in the week -

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the first of a set of weather fronts

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coming in off the Atlantic.

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In fact, let's go the other side of the Atlantic

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to find the source of this potential game changer.

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This was the scene on Thursday in Buffalo, New York.

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Blizzard conditions with temperatures of minus 10 degrees.

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Now these sorts of conditions are not heading in our direction,

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but indirectly could have an impact

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on our weather as we approach Christmas.

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We're going to see lobes of Arctic air coming down across

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North America during the course of this weekend

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meeting warm tropical air coming up from the south

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and where the two clash,

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that tends to supercharge the jet stream.

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The jet stream driving across the Atlantic as we approach Christmas

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and with a strong jet stream,

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we tend to get much more active weather systems,

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wind and rain, and at this stage it looks more likely that as we go

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into Christmas weekend, that these sort of scenes will occur.

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A lot of wind and rain,

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less likely are scenes like this with frosts and snow.

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Well, it's an outside bet at this stage,

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but things can change and I will update you again this time tomorrow.

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