18/08/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello, again. Any time you add some high energy weather systems

into the atmosphere, it sends the computer models

into a bit of a spin -

and this is just the right time of year for such systems.

They're known as hurricanes or tropical storms,

and this was Hurricane Gert earlier

on the other side of the Atlantic.

The remnants of that will head our way

later in the weekend.

But move further south - this is the spawning ground,

where we could see more storms

and potential hurricanes developing,

and it's the reason it's been so wet in Sierra Leone -

but the more of these storms you add into the mix,

the more uncertainty you create

in the longer-range forecast.

Not too much uncertainty, though, for Friday.

We've got a mixture of sunshine and showers -

more showers than we had on Thursday.

Some longer spells of rain lingering

in the north-east of Scotland,

another burst of rain

coming across the Irish sea into Wales,

later into the Midlands -

and it will be cooler by three degrees or more

in some places. It will feel cooler -

not just because of the showers -

there will be some strong gusty winds, too,

near those heavy downpours,

and that will continue to blow some wetter weather

eastwards during the evening.

Then, later in the night,

things start to calm down a little bit.

The winds drop, many places become dry,

cooler air,

so temperatures could be down

to about 10 degrees or so in many places.

As we head towards the weekend, though,

there's the prospect of some sunshine for a while.

There'll be fewer showers around on Saturday,

and then we've got the chance of this rain arriving on Sunday,

from what's left of Hurricane Gert.

Saturday, though, fairly straightforward.

A nice day for many of us, actually,

especially across the bulk of England and Wales -

perhaps Northern Ireland, too.

Very few showers around here, some sunshine,

turning hazy later on,

most of the showers up across Scotland,

where we've got some slightly stronger winds,

but not that bad a day, really -

but not that warm.

16 in Glasgow, disappointing.

21 in London.

There is some warmer air

with what's left of Hurricane Gert,

and these weather systems pushing in on Sunday

likely to bring some rain.

Not sure how much rain - at the moment,

it doesn't look that there will be an awful lot.

Many places north and east will start dry,

we'll see the cloud increasing,

and then a spell of rain shuffles up

from the south-west,

together with some slightly stronger winds.

Maybe you'll notice, more, the heat -

particularly across southern and eastern parts of England.

Any warmth, though, coming in association

with this tropical system, will be brief,

because there's cooler air in the north,

and that will win out as we move into Tuesday.

The higher temperatures likely

towards the south-east of the UK.

How warm it will get depends on how quickly

this band of rain moves down from the north,

there's the cooler air to the north of that,

with sunshine and showers -

and, as we move into Tuesday,

well, that warmth is probably pushed away.

There will be quite a keen wind blowing down from the north.

It will bring some sunshine and some showers.

Quite a few showers for Scotland

and down the eastern side of England, as well,

and it's cooler by Tuesday,

because this low pressure

is heading its way towards Scandinavia,

and as it does so,

it allows us to draw in our cooler northerly wind,

but, at the same time, we should start to see

high pressure pushing in from the Atlantic.

The problem is,

and the main uncertainty is,

how far north the high pressure will build.

Some computer models are suggesting

that the high is more a feature

across the southern half of the UK.

That will allow more Atlantic winds

to arrive across the north

later on into next week -

But there is a glimmer of hope, I suppose,

in what has been a disappointing month.

It looks like it's going to be the southern half of the UK

that stays drier for longer -

there's the potential for this rain

to arrive back in the north,

but, as I say, there is considerable uncertainty.