14/01/2018 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. If you're fed up of the almost relentless greyness

of the skies over this past week, things are about to change.

We're about to see a bit more sunshine but a marked change

in the way the weather feels. Bringing about the

change is this weather front which on Sunday is way to

the north-west in the UK to begin with, it's going to be

driven towards us by a strengthening jet stream.

Before it arrives, well, it's more of the same for Sunday -

for many of you, at least.

Lots of cloud around, the odd spot of light rain

or drizzle, maybe a better chance into the afternoon

of a few cloud breaks here and there, bit of

sunshine coming through, particularly across

parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland as the

breeze starts to strengthen. That strengthening breeze

is only a sign of the change getting closer and closer.

These are your afternoon temperatures for

Sunday, little bit down on Saturday's values,

but where they should be for the time of year.

So here comes the change. Up towards Western Scotland

and Northern Ireland, a spell of heavy rain

and strong to gale force if not sever gale force winds.

Accompanying it is that band of rain. Active weather

front pushes its way southwards and eastwards across all

parts through Sunday night and into Monday morning.

On the charts, by the time we start Monday morning it's

towards the south and east, but follow the isobars

back behind it, it's coming from a very cold source,

Greenland, northern parts of Canada, and that colder air

will be pushing southwards and eastwards as we go

through Monday, introducing a marked change for all of us.

So let's take you through Monday. If you're up early

and commuting across East Anglia and the south-east

it'll be a wet and very windy start. Still gales around

across parts of England and Wales first light

on Monday morning. Persistent rain gets out the way

during the morning, then some sunny conditions developing

but a scattering of showers, showers possible just about

anywhere into the afternoon. Most frequent to north

and west and as temperatures drop through the day

those showers will turn increasingly wintry,

initially across parts of Western Scotland and

Northern Ireland.

But the wintry weather will become a bit more extensive

into Tuesday as we see those north-westerly winds

bring in yet colder and colder air.

The showers will push across just about anywhere,

given the strength of the wind. Most frequent in the west,

heavy with hail and thunder and some sleet and snow,

some of the snow coming to low levels across parts

of Scotland. Northern Ireland and northern England, too,

get a slight covering in places. And we stick with that flow

of air across the UK, it's a mixture of sunshine and

frequent showers, showers still at the heaviest

towards the north and the west and an added wind chill

across the country, so wherever you are through Tuesday

and Wednesday, it will feel colder than the thermometer suggests.

But we've got to watch this on Wednesday night,

we could see in that run of north-westerly winds

a very nasty area of low pressure develop.

It looks like it's set to track across the southern

half of the country, but its exact position will be crucial

because on the southern flank of it we'll see the strongest

of the winds, maybe severe gales through the night

into Thursday, some snow on the northern flank of the

low pressure system, but it does clear off into the

near continent very, very quickly indeed.

So it's going to be an overnight feature,

so for Thursday sunshine and wintry showers probably sums it up.

End of the week we've got that run of north-westerly winds

with high pressure to the south-west,

low pressure to the north,

this is the continuous direction we get the winds coming in from,

but as we go through the weekend that area of low pressure finally

takes some movement off into the near continent,

allowing a more northerly air flow to set up. That's still going to be

feeding in some pretty cold air

but as winds fall lighter the story into the weekend

may be fewer showers

but increasing risk of some pretty sharp overnight frost.

So for the next ten days, get Sunday out the way,

the winds pick up, it turns colder and wintry,

made to feel much colder

given the strength of the winds

but into the weekend it's those

overnight frosts which will return.