13/02/2018 Weather for the Week Ahead


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13/02/2018

Detailed weather forecast.


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Hello. There's a big change on the way over the next ten days.

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We're going to be moving from something very unsettled

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to something significantly quieter.

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Through the rest of this week, the jet stream

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will continue to race across the Atlantic

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bringing areas of low pressure in our direction,

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But something dramatic is happening way above our heads

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up in the stratosphere.

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Normally in winter,

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the winds up in the stratosphere move from west to east

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around the Arctic, but what we're seeing at the moment is

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those winds slowing down and beginning to reverse direction.

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We call this sudden stratospheric warming

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because it normally coincides with a warming of the stratosphere,

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and what that means for our weather

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is the jet stream will slow down.

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So instead of bringing weather systems towards our shores,

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it will actually reverse direction and that blocks the weather

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patterns, bringing us something much quieter.

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But not yet.

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Tuesday morning could bring some disruption with snow

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and ice for some, wind and rain for others.

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Your BBC local radio station

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a good source of travel information.

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This band of rain in the south,

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snow further north will continue

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to slide its way eastwards through the day. Strong winds ahead of it.

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Behind it,

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something brighter through the afternoon.

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Some good spells of sunshine.

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Some wintry showers into the north-west

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on what will be a cold-feeling day.

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As we move out of Tuesday,

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that first weather system slides off to the east,

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but remember the active jet stream

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still bringing areas of low pressure our way.

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This one bringing a frontal system on Wednesday.

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It's a bit of a repeat performance.

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Some rain and some snow.

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The snow most likely over high ground in the north,

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but perhaps some for lower levels as well.

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Some strong and gusty winds.

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Something brighter following on into the west.

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But at this stage,

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we'll start to bring something milder into western areas.

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So Belfast, Cardiff, Plymouth -

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10 degrees on Wednesday afternoon.

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Low pressure still with us as we go on into Thursday.

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Still driving some fairly strong winds

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and some wintry showers across northern parts of the UK,

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across Scotland into Northern Ireland

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and parts of northern England.

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But the further south you are, fewer showers,

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more in the way of dry weather and sunshine and still that

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slightly milder feel with

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temperatures up to 10 or 11 degrees.

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Friday similar on the face of it,

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but the showers in the north-west likely to become a little

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more organised at times

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so perhaps some more persistent rain

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and snow to come.

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Further south and east,

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again that bit drier and brighter

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and still relatively mild

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at 9 or 10 degrees.

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Then we move into the weekend

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and this really is the first sign of that quieter weather.

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This area of high pressure beginning to

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build its way in from the south-west.

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That will have more of an influence

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on our weather on Saturday,

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so more of us will be dry and fine

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with some sunshine

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after what could be a cold and frosty start.

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Still some showers in the north.

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Could be cold enough for those to be wintry over high ground,

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but generally by this stage,

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the temperatures that bit higher at 8 to 10 degrees.

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So it is all about high pressure

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quietening things down as

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we move through the second half of the weekend and into next week.

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But exactly where that high ends up will determine just how mild,

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or indeed how cold, it will feel.

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At the moment,

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most computer models favour keeping the high pressure just to the south.

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That will allow us to bring some mild air in from the west.

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But there is a chance that that high pressure could drift further

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north across the country and that would allow us

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to bring some colder air from the east.

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But mild or cold, either way it is going to turn quieter next week.

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