13/02/2018 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. There's a big change on the way over the next ten days.

We're going to be moving from something very unsettled

to something significantly quieter.

Through the rest of this week, the jet stream

will continue to race across the Atlantic

bringing areas of low pressure in our direction,

But something dramatic is happening way above our heads

up in the stratosphere.

Normally in winter,

the winds up in the stratosphere move from west to east

around the Arctic, but what we're seeing at the moment is

those winds slowing down and beginning to reverse direction.

We call this sudden stratospheric warming

because it normally coincides with a warming of the stratosphere,

and what that means for our weather

is the jet stream will slow down.

So instead of bringing weather systems towards our shores,

it will actually reverse direction and that blocks the weather

patterns, bringing us something much quieter.

But not yet.

Tuesday morning could bring some disruption with snow

and ice for some, wind and rain for others.

Your BBC local radio station

a good source of travel information.

This band of rain in the south,

snow further north will continue

to slide its way eastwards through the day. Strong winds ahead of it.

Behind it,

something brighter through the afternoon.

Some good spells of sunshine.

Some wintry showers into the north-west

on what will be a cold-feeling day.

As we move out of Tuesday,

that first weather system slides off to the east,

but remember the active jet stream

still bringing areas of low pressure our way.

This one bringing a frontal system on Wednesday.

It's a bit of a repeat performance.

Some rain and some snow.

The snow most likely over high ground in the north,

but perhaps some for lower levels as well.

Some strong and gusty winds.

Something brighter following on into the west.

But at this stage,

we'll start to bring something milder into western areas.

So Belfast, Cardiff, Plymouth -

10 degrees on Wednesday afternoon.

Low pressure still with us as we go on into Thursday.

Still driving some fairly strong winds

and some wintry showers across northern parts of the UK,

across Scotland into Northern Ireland

and parts of northern England.

But the further south you are, fewer showers,

more in the way of dry weather and sunshine and still that

slightly milder feel with

temperatures up to 10 or 11 degrees.

Friday similar on the face of it,

but the showers in the north-west likely to become a little

more organised at times

so perhaps some more persistent rain

and snow to come.

Further south and east,

again that bit drier and brighter

and still relatively mild

at 9 or 10 degrees.

Then we move into the weekend

and this really is the first sign of that quieter weather.

This area of high pressure beginning to

build its way in from the south-west.

That will have more of an influence

on our weather on Saturday,

so more of us will be dry and fine

with some sunshine

after what could be a cold and frosty start.

Still some showers in the north.

Could be cold enough for those to be wintry over high ground,

but generally by this stage,

the temperatures that bit higher at 8 to 10 degrees.

So it is all about high pressure

quietening things down as

we move through the second half of the weekend and into next week.

But exactly where that high ends up will determine just how mild,

or indeed how cold, it will feel.

At the moment,

most computer models favour keeping the high pressure just to the south.

That will allow us to bring some mild air in from the west.

But there is a chance that that high pressure could drift further

north across the country and that would allow us

to bring some colder air from the east.

But mild or cold, either way it is going to turn quieter next week.