12/03/2018 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. Mixed weather for the weekend - some sunshine, some rain -

but the thing we probably noticed the most,

the temperatures edging up.

And in fact with 15.3 Celsius in London on Saturday,

it was the warmest day of the year so far,

but it could well be that by next weekend,

temperatures are going in the opposite direction once again.

As this forecast looks further ahead than the others,

we'll get to that in just a moment.

Now, the reason things have been turning a bit milder,

this area of low pressure to the south-west of us

pushing in some mild air northwards across the UK.

But it did come with some rain and some showers,

and it will still do that during Monday,

as it's still close by England and Wales.

So bands of wet weather circulating around that area of low pressure.

A few brighter spells.

The rain just fringing into eastern parts of Northern Ireland,

the far south of Scotland.

North of that, mainly cloudy, mainly dry.

And temperatures have come down a bit compared with the weekend,

so more of us seeing temperatures

topping out in single figures once again.

Now, finally, going into Tuesday,

that area of low pressure pulls away,

get a little bump in the isobars -

that means a ridge of high pressure coming in for Tuesday,

settling things down. Slow start, mind you,

a good deal of cloud around particularly eastern parts,

and still a bit of rain for a time, East Anglia, south-east England.

Brightening up into the afternoon,

more especially across western parts,

and temperatures have edged up a little bit

so some spots in Scotland, for example,

getting back into double figures.

Under clearing skies, though,

chilly enough for a touch of frost on Tuesday night,

then for Wednesday, our ridge of high pressure is just about gone

as low pressure parks itself to the south-west of us

for the rest of the week.

It will have a limited attempt during Wednesday

to bring in a band of wet weather towards the south-west -

more cloud in the west. Notice the wind arrows, though -

the most noticeable thing about Wednesday's weather

will be a strengthening southerly wind.

More widely, temperatures in double figures, mind you,

but then again, the wind will be picking up.

Our area of low pressure to the south-west of us

will then try to feed a band of cloud and rain

further east during Thursday. Uncertain progress.

Here it is - may not look exactly like this by Thursday,

but the best chance for still some sunny spells

will be across eastern parts.

The wind more of a south-easterly

and it does mean something a little bit cooler coming in

towards the North Sea coast.

And then on Friday the low pressure is still to the west of us,

is still trying to feed in cloud and outbreaks of rain north-eastwards

across the UK. To the south of that, brightening up a bit,

with a few showers, though temperatures here

edging up towards 12 or maybe even 13 degrees.

Now, then. Why is that area of low pressure

parking itself to the west of us,

not just coming right on through with its wet weather?

Well, we'll look at the big picture, and it could well be

that it's reaching a block in the atmosphere.

The block will be an area of high pressure in Scandinavia.

The flow of air around that, some colder air coming back in,

but there's a lot of uncertainty about how cold the air will be

as it starts to filter through during the course of next weekend.

If comes right from the east it will be particularly chilly,

but this latest image is less chilly

but still colder than what we have at the moment.

So there's still a lot to play for

in the detail of next weekend's weather

in just how cold it may get

and how widely that colder air will move across the UK.

But the indications are next weekend,

or into the start of the following week,

something colder coming back from the east.

A chilly wind developing, so wind chill may be more of an issue,

and a risk of wintry showers - not a guarantee,

but more towards the north-east of the UK, maybe north-east England

and into eastern Scotland, especially over higher ground.

Still loads of play for in the detail

so we will keep monitoring this as we go through the week.