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World War Three: Inside the War Room

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This programme contains some strong language

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and scenes which some viewers may find upsetting from the start.

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The people of East Berlin broke through the walls of their prison...

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For years, the most potent symbol of the division of Europe.

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..March 12th, 1999, as the day the people of Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland...

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-GEORGE W BUSH:

-Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,

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Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia,

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we welcome them into the ranks

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of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

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The Russian military machine pouring across Russia's southern border

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into Georgia's rebellious enclave of South Ossetia.

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Ukrainian government forces say many Russian troops

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have been deployed in the east of the country,

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allowing separatists to make further advances.

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Ukraine is bleeding right now, Ukraine is weeping,

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and Europe is completely oblivious to this tragedy.

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Vladimir Putin completed his lightning

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and largely bloodless annexation with the stroke of a pen.

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I think that it's a very straightforward political comment,

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that basically sees Russia as a coming adversary of Nato,

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or an adversary that has returned from the cold.

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GUNFIRE

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-BARACK OBAMA:

-As Nato allies, we have Article 5 duties

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to our collective defence.

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..in a newspaper interview that Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia

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are at risk, and Nato must be ready to repel Russian aggression.

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-OBAMA:

-I've come here first and foremost to reaffirm

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the commitment of the United States to the security of Estonia.

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That is a commitment that is unbreakable.

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It is unwavering.

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It is eternal.

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Estonia will never stand alone.

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Good morning, everybody.

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Good morning, Chairman.

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So it's Estonia, as you may imagine.

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This is where I think we are this morning.

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The situation in the Baltic States has deteriorated.

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There has been heavy rioting in the Estonian capital Tallinn overnight,

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after scuffles broke out at the site of the former Soviet war memorial.

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They say it was a peaceful act of remembrance

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of Russians who died fighting the Nazis.

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Eye witnesses describe them as being attacked

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by masked men with Estonian flags.

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Six of the man charged with inciting violence are Russian citizens.

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Russians make up almost a quarter of the population of Estonia,

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and many of them have rallied round to condemn

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what they see as discrimination and brutality by the Estonian police.

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The Estonian interior minister today issued a statement

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openly accusing the Kremlin of orchestrating this violence.

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President Putin has condemned Estonia's treatment

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of ethnic Russians as disgraceful and has demanded...

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..nervousness in Nato that Putin could look to exploit

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the ethnic Russian population to stir up more violence.

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IN RUSSIAN:

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CHEERING

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Protests about the six Russian men arrested in Tallinn

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have now spread to the neighbouring country of Latvia.

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The province has a large population of ethnic Russians,

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and is one of the poorest areas of the European Union.

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If you come from Latgale or if you are Russian, you are a nobody.

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You are a second class citizen, you know?

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I've lived here for my whole life, but I don't have a right to vote.

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I don't have a passport. We have to change that.

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SHOUTING

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THEY CHANT: Ro-ssi-ya! Ro-ssi-ya! Ro-ssi-ya!

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The city's mayor Dimitri Vorslav has appealed for calm

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and promised he will listen to calls for a referendum...

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IN RUSSIAN:

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CHEERING

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CHEERING

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CHANTING:

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Such a referendum would be illegal and illegitimate.

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We believe Mr Vorslav is in the pay of the Kremlin.

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We will not accept interference in our state like this,

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and will take necessary steps to restore law and order in Daugavpils.

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I've just heard that we're going to have our Kremlin representative

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to Nato and Brussels coming over on the video conference.

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David.

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'However you read it, it's clear that this situation

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'is more serious than recent events in Estonia.'

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What evidence have they brought to the council,

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informally or formally, on this?

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'Well, they're talking a lot about what's going on at the border.

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'They're saying now the militia has control of a sizeable stretch of it

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'and that there are men and weapons pouring in unchecked from Russia.'

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Have you been able to take any soundings

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of other Nato representatives?

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'Yes, I think the Eastern states would be supportive if there was

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'an indication of Article 5, I'm not sure about the Germans.

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'I think if they were to push back,

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'then a number of other countries would tuck in behind, Spain, Italy.

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'I just can't read the French position at the moment.'

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OK, David, thanks very much.

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We will no doubt be calling on your wisdom and information...

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-'We'll talk again. Thank you.'

-..in due course. Thank you.

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The big question is, is this an Article 5 situation,

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and what should we do about it? General?

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Article 5 is about responding to an armed attack.

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By the sounds of things, this is very firmly and armed attack.

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This is going to be, as we saw with Crimea,

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undermining the integrity of the state from within,

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manipulation of minorities, propaganda,

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potential use of special forces, border incursions,

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so I think what Nato would be wanting to do here

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is to get certainty, clarity of the situation.

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So surveillance, reinforce the Baltic air policing commitment,

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with additional aircraft.

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I think Nato would almost certainly want to put a maritime presence

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into the Baltic, and I think, also,

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Nato would be looking to start to move elements

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of a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force into Latvia.

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Kishwer?

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I think any assistance we can give them in terms of intel,

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but in terms of moving troops into the country,

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the Russians would interpret that as escalatory,

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but I also think it's extremely dangerous.

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Miscalculation can happen.

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The Russians might misunderstand that you're just moving them in

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as a show of solidarity. They may not see it that way.

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Let me press you on this, Kishwer.

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We cannot be, surely, too sensitive about Putin's sensitivities.

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So we're going to sleepwalk into, potentially, a war with Russia

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because we mustn't be too sensitive about their capabilities?

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-I'm wide awake, I don't know about you.

-That's extraordinary.

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-I don't think this is sleepwalking.

-I think the first thing is to move

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some troops into the country, not necessarily engage.

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But I think have a presence of a kind that

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acts as a warning to the Russians.

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This is a test of solidarity of the alliance.

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We have seen exactly what he did in the Ukraine

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in his hybrid form of warfare.

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We have warned him quite openly not to do that with the Baltic states,

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and I believe we need to have some form of ground forces,

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Nato ground forces,

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not to do that straightaway I think would be a terrible mistake.

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Chairman, if I may, cos I think we're getting way,

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way ahead of ourselves here.

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Just reflect a moment on the position you put Putin in

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if you start upping the military ante.

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The one thing that keeps you in power in Russia

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is a reputation for strength.

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If he finds himself confronted by a Nato challenge of that sort

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and backs down, he then loses domestically, politically.

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So warn them, signal all sorts of things,

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but moving troops seems to me to be a step too far.

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We are not starting from cold.

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We'll already have deployed troops there on exercise

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to warn the Russians post-Ukraine, they've come back out again.

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If it was starting from cold, I agree...

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This isn't Crimea, this is not Ukraine.

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I would agree entirely if we were starting from cold, but we're not.

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This is not Ukraine. It's a Nato country - Putin knows that.

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I think it is not a good idea to start deploying troops

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as though this is going to get worse.

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It's necessary to do whatever we can to deescalate this as a row.

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I think that a strong statement is necessary.

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At this stage in the crisis, the Russians have not admitted

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that they are doing anything or are directly involved.

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I think that's potentially useful for us.

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As soon as we turn this into a direct confrontation

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between Nato and Russia, we're on a very slippery slope.

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SHOUTING

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There were extraordinary scenes here earlier as the mayor,

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having declared his intent to hold a referendum,

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was in effect barred from his own city hall.

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The riot police were then overcome...

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Riga says a warrant for Mr Vorslav's arrest

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was issued on Sunday following the announcement

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that they would hold a referendum on greater autonomy...

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GUNSHOT

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GUNFIRE

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GUNFIRE

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Pro-Russian groups have consolidated their control

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of government buildings

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in a number of towns and cities in Eastern Latvia.

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A Latvian policeman has been killed and several others injured

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in violence around Daugavpils' town hall.

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The Latvian army has now been sent to restore order...

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Riga says the separatists are in control of some 20km

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of the border with Russia.

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Speaking to journalists earlier today,

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Latvia's Interior Minister Erik Jurdz left no doubt

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as to who they believe is arming and aiding the separatists.

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Our intelligence services have detected large numbers of Russians

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crossing the border illegally into Latvia with armaments.

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The evidence for Russian involvement in this is minimal at the moment.

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We have Latvian intelligence,

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who are neither very competent nor very impartial,

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telling us that there's infiltration taking place across the border.

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The only thing we know is happening

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is a major breakdown of civil order in Latvia,

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and to start sending off troops and all of that in response to that

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is massively disproportionate.

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If one looks at the continuum from Ukraine, Estonia, now Latvia -

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it's reminiscent, isn't it, slightly of the late '30s?

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People like this, you have to be quick and confront them quickly,

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and I believe there is a case for that.

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Let's have an attack on Russia

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which is not attributable to us, which would be a cyber attack.

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This would be my method of sending a message to Russia

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which would be seriously financially damaging, for example.

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GCHQ can do completely unattributable attacks

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to take things down,

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so, I mean, there are options that one can play with there.

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We've spent the last 50 years telling Russia

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we're a defensive alliance,

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so now we're going to launch a massive attack on them.

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Nobody's talked about attacking Russia,

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we're talking about putting forces into Latvia...

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A cyber attack, a cyber attack.

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OK, I'm expecting the National Security Advisor

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to come through to us, Laurel Feinstein.

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Laurel, what's going on at your end on this?

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'The President's pushing to deploy the Very High Readiness Task Force.

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'He feels that even though there's not a lot of evidence

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'of hardware going in,

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'we need to be there to dissuade the Russians,

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'we need to reinforce the borders, we need to contain this.'

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How near to hot war does this take us?

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'At the moment, we're talking about giving weapons and support

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'to the Latvians. Nato troops would be there

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'in a purely defensive role, excluding the Latvians of course.'

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OK, that's very helpful.

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I guess we're going to have a few more conversations like this.

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I would worry about the implications of encouraging Latvia

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to invoke Article 5 and then nothing following from that.

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I wonder what the Russians would read into that.

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I think they're just as likely to read into that

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-that Nato is divided and can't react.

-Exactly.

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The foundation of Nato, Article 5, that strength of collective defence

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is something that is going to allow Nato

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to hold up that strong stop sign

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and that is the way to prevent war rather than weakness,

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which is the way to almost certainly stumble into war.

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Right. I don't think I can honestly say there is a consensus view

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on all these points around this table.

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We're going to have to have a vote.

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It is on whether or not we would support the American position

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to deploy the joint task force in a defensive role in Latvia.

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So let's go clockwise.

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You've got four on that side of the table. This side of the table?

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Provided it is then put to parliament.

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Five who are in favour of the proposition

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and one, two, three against.

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I'm not sure what you're going to say.

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No, I'm against here and now.

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The transmission of our decision to support the American position

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would be made at the North Atlantic Council.

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Nato's North Atlantic Council has voted to deploy

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the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force to Latvia.

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Britain contributes over 1,000 personnel to the task force.

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-DAVID CAMERON:

-Over the next months,

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we're going to be deploying British service personnel

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to provide advice and a range of training,

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from tactical intelligence...

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Meanwhile, Russia has announced what it calls

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"routine military exercises" close to the Latvian border.

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-OBAMA:

-Troops massing along that border,

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under the guise of military exercises.

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What we need right now to deescalate the situation

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would be for Russia to move back those troops.

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The Latvian Army began its ill-fated operation

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to retake Daugavpils International Airport just before dawn.

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They met stiff resistance from the pro-Russian separatists,

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who a Latvian officer told me

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clearly included well-trained, professional soldiers.

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IN RUSSIAN:

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SHOUTING

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..in the last few minutes.

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We're just hearing that four British soldiers

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have been captured by Pro-Russian militia

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in the town of Vandani.

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IN RUSSIAN:

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SHOUTING

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We understand the four men were apparently helping the Latvian Army

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with mentoring and intelligence.

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We were told we were going in to Latvia in a peacekeeping role,

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but when we got here,

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our orders were to fight alongside the Latvian army.

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And we were doing that even though Nato

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has denied killing Russian people in Latvia.

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I'm really sorry British soldiers are being ordered to do things

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that could hurt Russian people in Latvia.

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I think it's wrong and I hope the British Government will stop that.

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MEYER: The choice confronting us today

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is whether we mount a rescue attempt

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of our four boys held prisoner by pro-Russian militia

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or we leave them where they are.

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-FALKNER:

-Have we spoken to the UN Secretary General?

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He's not going to be able to rescue them.

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Have we spoken to him? Have we internationalised the situation?

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I can't think of anything worse than internationalising the situation.

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I mean...

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Nato requires in Article 5 that you internationalise by...

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in conformance with the UN Charter.

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Well, we are now operating under Article 5.

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It seems to me extraordinary not to use the Good Offices

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of the UN Secretary General in a hostage situation.

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I have never known a Good Office of the UN Secretary General ever work.

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Actually, I'd quite like to have the general speak.

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Can we do this thing? If we decided here round this table

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to send in an extraction force as opposed to Ban Ki Moon,

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as Kishwer is suggesting.

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Erm... Could we do it?

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I think we would clearly want to look at the situation,

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understand the position. But the question you ask is

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"Could it be done?" Yes, it could be done.

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Come on, then, what's the record of success, do you think?

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Would you like, would you like to give us odds?

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-High.

-I...

-High - certainly the ones

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I was involved in were all successful.

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We've got a lot of assets there.

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There will be a lot... Because of the force that's gone in there,

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there will be a lot of intelligence assets working.

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We'll have a very good picture of what's going on,

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and therefore I'm sure they can come up with a plan and action it,

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and if it is really only locals doing it,

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then it should absolutely succeed.

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The Russians, I believe, are involved.

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It would be very interesting to see if they would do anything

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in terms of trying to counter that sort of thing,

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which would expose their hand.

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I agree.

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I think the question for us

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is whether we take the Russians at face value...

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..that, "It's not them, guv",

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and therefore they of course will welcome our boys being brought out.

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And do we tell them 30 seconds before we do it,

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that we're doing it, in order to avoid an escalation

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that we don't want,

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so we can contain this as a military action.

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We should not share that information or that plan

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with the Russians, in my opinion,

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because they may tip people off on the ground.

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If the Russians know this thing is happening and we don't tell them,

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but they can see that it's happening,

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will they just let it happen?

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My instinct is that they would let it happen,

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because they don't want...

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They're under instructions to be invisible,

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so I'm entirely with Alan and the others -

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we get our boys out.

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GUNFIRE IN DISTANCE

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Four British soldiers captured by separatists in Eastern Latvia

0:23:010:23:04

have been rescued.

0:23:040:23:05

The MOD said the operation was a "complete success",

0:23:050:23:08

and the four men are understood to be on their way...

0:23:080:23:11

Good afternoon.

0:23:110:23:12

A Russian fighter jet has crashed a few hundred yards

0:23:120:23:15

from the Latvian border, just inside Russia.

0:23:150:23:17

President Putin called the incident "a grave provocation"

0:23:170:23:21

and demanded an explanation from Nato.

0:23:210:23:24

A Nato spokesman insisted they had not shot down the jet,

0:23:240:23:27

suggesting it may have in fact crashed due to pilot error...

0:23:270:23:31

CLATTERING

0:23:350:23:37

The helicopter was shot down

0:23:440:23:45

as it transported troops to a military base.

0:23:450:23:48

The Latvian Army has confirmed that 15 of its soldiers were killed.

0:23:480:23:52

Nato sources have told me that they believe the helicopter was shot down

0:23:520:23:56

with a surface-to-air missile fired from inside Russia.

0:23:560:23:59

'They're adamant that it's an S400 missile

0:24:000:24:03

'that took out the helicopter, and it was fired from Russian soil.

0:24:030:24:06

'Does that tally with your intelligence?'

0:24:060:24:08

Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.

0:24:080:24:11

But...what does the rest of the council think about this?

0:24:110:24:14

'Well, I think we can expect the Americans

0:24:140:24:16

'to take a very hard line of this.

0:24:160:24:17

'Poland of course and the other Balts are keen.

0:24:170:24:21

'Germany is getting wobblier.

0:24:210:24:22

'Now there's very grave concern here that if the airstrike is to happen,

0:24:220:24:26

'and it is to be effective, it would have to be very comprehensive

0:24:260:24:29

'and so we might easily find ourselves

0:24:290:24:31

'being tipped over into a hot war.

0:24:310:24:33

'What's the UK position?'

0:24:330:24:35

Well, David, that is precisely what we've got to talk about here.

0:24:350:24:39

I'll get back to you as soon as I can. Thank you.

0:24:390:24:42

Well...a simple question, but full of complicated ramifications.

0:24:440:24:50

Are we going to respond to the shooting down

0:24:500:24:53

of the Latvian Nato helicopter

0:24:530:24:56

by hitting this battery on Russian soil, yes or no? James?

0:24:560:25:02

-Yes.

-Would you like to start the ball rolling on this?

0:25:020:25:04

It's quite simple - yes.

0:25:040:25:06

They have shot down a Nato helicopter.

0:25:060:25:09

I think that if we fail to respond,

0:25:090:25:13

we will be allowing Russia to push forward

0:25:130:25:18

in a way that leads to no end to aggression,

0:25:180:25:22

and I think that's a bad thing.

0:25:220:25:23

First of all, I agree that we need to respond.

0:25:230:25:26

Second point, yes, a response is proportionate -

0:25:260:25:29

ie, we don't nuke Moscow.

0:25:290:25:31

But, thirdly, if such a thing exists,

0:25:310:25:33

I would far rather find a target in Latvia than in Russia.

0:25:330:25:37

But if it's not possible, it's not possible.

0:25:380:25:40

You do something in Russia.

0:25:400:25:42

I think the S400 might well have moved by now,

0:25:420:25:45

and I think, therefore, what we probably have to do -

0:25:450:25:48

and this is a bit soft for me

0:25:480:25:49

cos I normally like hitting people who hit me -

0:25:490:25:52

is make absolutely clear to the Russians through back channels

0:25:520:25:55

and any channel, through official channels,

0:25:550:25:57

that we know that this was fired from an S400 site,

0:25:570:26:00

that we are now giving rules of engagement

0:26:000:26:02

that will allow immediate reengagement -

0:26:020:26:04

anything that is fired into the air over Latvia or Estonia or Lithuania

0:26:040:26:07

with an immediate response, even though it is in Russian territory.

0:26:070:26:11

The S400 is part of an exceptionally sophisticated,

0:26:110:26:14

integrated air defence system.

0:26:140:26:17

You are not in the business of just singling out a particular battery

0:26:170:26:21

and deciding, "We're going to take that."

0:26:210:26:23

Actually, in order to do that, you probably have to take down

0:26:230:26:26

the whole integrated air defence system.

0:26:260:26:28

So this is a big operation.

0:26:280:26:29

Then, on top of that, what you're doing

0:26:290:26:32

is attacking Russian sovereign territory,

0:26:320:26:34

and the Russians could well say, "You're attacking the motherland.

0:26:340:26:38

"We will use whatever we want to respond",

0:26:380:26:41

and they would quite easily, quite happily,

0:26:410:26:43

use one of their Iskander missiles, one of their many Iskander missiles,

0:26:430:26:46

based up there in Kaliningrad.

0:26:460:26:48

-Furthermore, if you then look...

-Iskander, what is that?

0:26:480:26:51

Iskander is a nuclear... It's a nuclear missile

0:26:510:26:53

with a range of about 400km -

0:26:530:26:55

so Warsaw, Berlin, Stockholm are all within range.

0:26:550:26:59

He's absolutely right about the IADS.

0:26:590:27:01

To actually fly aircraft over Russia,

0:27:010:27:03

you have to take out the IADS,

0:27:030:27:05

but taking out the IADS system is a major act of war.

0:27:050:27:08

The remit of this committee is to take a decision today

0:27:090:27:13

on whether or not we should retaliate by hitting the battery

0:27:130:27:18

on Russian soil, yes or no?

0:27:180:27:21

No, not on Russian soil.

0:27:210:27:23

There is no consensus for that around this table,

0:27:230:27:25

-therefore we can't recommend that this happens.

-Agree.

0:27:250:27:29

What we can do is send them a very clear warning

0:27:290:27:32

that the next time there's the slightest hint of this happening,

0:27:320:27:36

they would get a missile down their throats

0:27:360:27:39

and to make it plain to them that we know

0:27:390:27:41

that it was they who were responsible.

0:27:410:27:44

The people of Daugavpils in Eastern Latvia

0:27:490:27:51

woke up to a column of 300 Russian trucks this morning.

0:27:510:27:55

President Putin says the column is a humanitarian mission...

0:27:550:27:58

-JURDZ:

-This is an invasion of Latvian soil by the Russian army,

0:27:580:28:02

with the purpose of resupplying the Russian saboteurs

0:28:020:28:06

already operating in Latgale.

0:28:060:28:08

And if they do not leave,

0:28:090:28:11

then the Latvian Army will begin operations against them.

0:28:110:28:15

The fiercely pro-Moscow mayor of Daugavpils, Dimitri Vorslav,

0:28:170:28:20

greeted the Russian soldiers on the convoy as heroes.

0:28:200:28:24

There's been no independent verification

0:28:240:28:26

of the contents of the 300 trucks in the column,

0:28:260:28:29

but Riga claims the vehicles have brought arms and ammunition...

0:28:290:28:33

We've got the President of Russia's National Security Advisor

0:28:330:28:37

coming through.

0:28:370:28:39

Grigori Ivanovich, we have an elite front line unit,

0:28:390:28:44

one of the divisions of the Guards Air Assault riding on the convoy

0:28:440:28:49

with heavy equipment, which can only be regarded as military.

0:28:490:28:54

'Well, they are generators.

0:28:540:28:56

'They are food supplies and baby formula and medical supplies.

0:28:570:29:03

'It is a peaceful, humanitarian mission.

0:29:030:29:06

'In fact, we hope for a possible solution to this crisis.

0:29:070:29:11

'President Putin believes he can use his influence

0:29:110:29:15

'to achieve a ceasefire.

0:29:150:29:17

'He has sent a proposal to Riga

0:29:170:29:20

'and we believe this could be basis for talks.'

0:29:200:29:22

Well, we will take a look at this peace proposal.

0:29:240:29:27

The main components are as follows -

0:29:280:29:30

number one, all foreign powers

0:29:300:29:33

should withdraw from Latvian territory.

0:29:330:29:36

Second, the United Nations will take control

0:29:360:29:39

of humanitarian and peace-keeping operations in the Latgale region.

0:29:390:29:43

Three, all sides should respect the rights of Latgalian people

0:29:450:29:51

to carry out free and fair referendum

0:29:510:29:53

on greater autonomy from Riga.

0:29:530:29:56

Lastly, Nato should recommit to not stationing any permanent troops

0:29:580:30:03

in Latvia or other former Soviet republics.

0:30:030:30:08

Tony, give us an expert's view of the worth of this proposal.

0:30:090:30:14

Snap... Snap judgment.

0:30:140:30:16

Snap judgment, it seems to be the basis for a discussion.

0:30:160:30:19

Referendum on the autonomy is going to be the hard part, of course,

0:30:190:30:22

because that's finally a judgment for the Latvian government.

0:30:220:30:25

Erm, but if that is the way of preventing a major war in Europe,

0:30:250:30:29

it may be worth doing, and the fourth point,

0:30:290:30:31

we're simply being asked to recommit to something that we've committed ourselves to already.

0:30:310:30:35

-No, we're not.

-This is absolute rubbish.

0:30:350:30:38

This actually is what Putin's overall aim has been.

0:30:380:30:41

The next step is, does he do the same with Poland?

0:30:410:30:44

You know, does he... I mean, this is part of Nato territory,

0:30:440:30:48

I mean, it would be unbelievable for us to agree to those things,

0:30:480:30:51

absolutely unbelievable, and completely let him feel

0:30:510:30:54

he's done exactly what he wanted to do. This is his aim.

0:30:540:30:57

-We've got Washington coming through.

-Hi, everybody.

0:30:570:31:00

There's too many soldiers on the ground for this to be what

0:31:000:31:03

they say it is, and the President feels we've reached

0:31:030:31:06

the moment of truth in terms of force as a response to this.

0:31:060:31:10

We'd like to set a 72-hour deadline for the removal of all

0:31:100:31:14

Russian personnel from Latvia.

0:31:140:31:16

Latvia needs to be restored to full territorial integrity.

0:31:160:31:20

Thank you very much for enlightening us on that.

0:31:200:31:24

-We'll be talking to you again soon, Laurel.

-All right, we'll talk to you soon.

-Thank you.

0:31:240:31:28

Do we, as Laurel was suggesting,

0:31:280:31:31

do what the Americans are demanding, which is

0:31:310:31:34

for Nato to set an ultimatum for the withdrawal of these trucks

0:31:340:31:38

and if the Russians fail to do it be prepared to resort to force?

0:31:380:31:45

In other words, if I can put it in a crude tabloid-y way,

0:31:450:31:49

are we ready to die for Daugavpils?

0:31:490:31:53

I think we absolutely need to give an ultimatum

0:31:530:31:55

and we need to ensure that Nato's got the right sort of forces

0:31:550:31:59

in place to be able to take military action.

0:31:590:32:01

We also need to bear in mind,

0:32:010:32:03

and I know this is a horrifying thought,

0:32:030:32:05

but part of Russian doctrine is

0:32:050:32:07

that if they do get involved in major fighting

0:32:070:32:10

the use of tactical nuclear weapons, for example, is just

0:32:100:32:12

a part of that, they don't see that as anything strange, and therefore

0:32:120:32:16

I think we need to think very carefully of what is the readiness,

0:32:160:32:19

and what level of readiness Nato has for its, er...its nuclear forces.

0:32:190:32:23

General, say the ultimatum is 72 hours from midday today.

0:32:250:32:32

What can we do when the ultimatum expires if the Russians haven't withdrawn?

0:32:320:32:36

Nato could take military action, erm,

0:32:360:32:39

but it's going to need to be overwhelmingly strong

0:32:390:32:43

in order to snuff out any potential, er, reaction quickly.

0:32:430:32:48

It's got to take account of the public-information perspective

0:32:480:32:53

of being seen to support Latvians, erm, in dealing with

0:32:530:32:58

supposedly humanitarians, but are they humanitarians?

0:32:580:33:02

But if, as we think,

0:33:020:33:04

they are members of the 76th Air Assault Division, well,

0:33:040:33:08

there's only one way to do it, which is to be robust,

0:33:080:33:11

to overmatch, and that means significant deployment of forces.

0:33:110:33:14

So you think the joint task force with the Latvian Army

0:33:140:33:19

is up to attacking the Guards Air Assault...

0:33:190:33:23

the members of the Guards Air Assault Division,

0:33:230:33:26

and actually overwhelming them?

0:33:260:33:28

An operation like this is not the sort of thing that you put

0:33:280:33:32

a potentially flaky multinational force in to do.

0:33:320:33:35

I would like to see a single unified force,

0:33:350:33:39

possibly from the Americans, coming in to just...

0:33:390:33:42

put a fire blanket over this and snuff it out completely.

0:33:420:33:45

That's quite worrying, what you've just said to us,

0:33:450:33:47

because it suggests that the joint task force, Nato,

0:33:470:33:52

within 72 hours could not carry out this threat.

0:33:520:33:56

Latvia, if I remember correctly... Latvia's got about...

0:33:560:33:59

roughly two million, just under two million people. Right?

0:33:590:34:02

So we're seriously talking here about unleashing

0:34:020:34:06

World War Three for half a dozen boroughs of a metropolitan city.

0:34:060:34:12

I mean, it seems to me quite extraordinary that we're doing that

0:34:120:34:15

at the time when we have a potential peace proposal on the table...

0:34:150:34:19

-It destroys Nato.

-We've been offered...

0:34:190:34:22

-That peace proposal destroys the whole concept of Nato.

-Can...

0:34:220:34:25

Absolutely, it destroys the whole concept of Nato.

0:34:250:34:27

Let me say to you...that just over 100 years ago there was a view

0:34:270:34:33

that an alliance, and alliances were more important than

0:34:330:34:37

security of the citizens of this continent.

0:34:370:34:39

-The First World War...

-Let's not use alliances as straightjackets.

0:34:390:34:43

I do think that we need to preserve some multinationality.

0:34:430:34:48

Because I do not think that the optics of the Americans rescuing

0:34:500:34:54

the Europeans and the Europeans not taking part is good at all.

0:34:540:34:58

I agree entirely with that.

0:34:580:35:00

We had conniptions about the first humanitarian Russian convoy into Ukraine.

0:35:000:35:04

We were wrong, it was a humanitarian convoy.

0:35:040:35:07

There was all sorts of elaborate talk of Russian plots and so on

0:35:070:35:11

and it was a humanitarian convoy.

0:35:110:35:13

I do not want to go into World War Three

0:35:130:35:16

while shooting down a humanitarian convoy.

0:35:160:35:19

That puts us in the wrong in every single way,

0:35:190:35:21

in terms of UK popular opinion, in terms of world opinion.

0:35:210:35:24

-It would be a disaster.

-These trucks are completely irrelevant.

0:35:240:35:27

They've tabled a peace deal, OK?

0:35:270:35:29

We need to respond to that formally, and our response to that

0:35:290:35:32

should be completely to reject it, but we do need a deadline.

0:35:320:35:37

It should be a deadline linked to our own military plans,

0:35:370:35:40

and the Russian spokesman said

0:35:400:35:42

President Putin thought he could get a ceasefire.

0:35:420:35:44

That's what President Putin needs to help deliver.

0:35:440:35:47

I would like to put to the committee,

0:35:470:35:49

the simple question around which you have to say yes or no

0:35:490:35:52

is, subject to parliamentary approval,

0:35:520:35:56

would you agree to the American proposal for a 72-hour ultimatum

0:35:560:36:01

for the withdrawal of Russian forces, which,

0:36:010:36:04

-if they don't do that, would be met by the use of force by us.

-Yes.

0:36:040:36:08

-I want a vote now, please.

-Yes.

0:36:080:36:11

Who is in favour? That's four...five.

0:36:110:36:15

-No.

-Five.

-Wrong tactics.

-It would be madness.

-I'm a... I'm a no.

0:36:150:36:19

-Wrong tactics.

-You're a no. We have five yeses, we have four noes.

0:36:190:36:24

-I think we've got it, then.

-The motion is supported.

0:36:240:36:27

REPORTER: In the past hour, MPs have voted in favour of the UK using

0:36:310:36:34

military force, if required, to restore Latvia's territorial

0:36:340:36:38

integrity and fulfil Britain's obligations under Article 5.

0:36:380:36:42

There's been a tense stand-off in the Baltic Sea today,

0:36:420:36:45

with Nato's naval group pushing east

0:36:450:36:47

and coming within two miles of the Russian Baltic Fleet.

0:36:470:36:50

Our defence correspondent, Jonathan Beale, sent this report from on board HMS Ocean.

0:36:500:36:54

It's the proof that Britain's stepping up the offensive.

0:36:540:36:58

Four Apache helicopters ready to launch from a warship.

0:36:580:37:02

President Putin says tactical nuclear weapons have now been

0:37:020:37:05

deployed to Kaliningrad.

0:37:050:37:08

Announcing the move, he warned that Moscow was ready to repel any

0:37:080:37:11

aggression against Russian soil and Russian peoples.

0:37:110:37:15

There's a lot of rhetoric coming out of Moscow from Putin himself

0:37:170:37:20

about Russia's nuclear forces.

0:37:200:37:24

The question is,

0:37:240:37:25

how should we respond to this kind of nuclear posturing?

0:37:250:37:30

General.

0:37:300:37:31

Well, the answer to how do we respond to nuclear posturing

0:37:310:37:35

is through deterrence, through raising the bar so high that Putin

0:37:350:37:41

realises that it's simply not worth his while to try to cross that bar.

0:37:410:37:46

Erm, and that means conventional capability as well as nuclear capability,

0:37:460:37:50

and deterrence is all about capability,

0:37:500:37:53

it's about credibility and it's about communicating that capability.

0:37:530:37:56

Can we deploy...another submarine, nuclear submarine?

0:37:560:38:01

-If...

-In a kind of visible way which we could tell the Russians...

0:38:010:38:06

They would know if we deployed another submarine.

0:38:060:38:08

The other factor is that the Moscow criteria of destroying...

0:38:080:38:12

Moscow, all of their command, all of their, er, government and everything,

0:38:120:38:17

is probably not quite met by one boat.

0:38:170:38:20

If we deployed a second boat, that has a message in itself.

0:38:200:38:23

Having one boat is capable of just firing one missile

0:38:230:38:26

and using it in a sense...tactically.

0:38:260:38:29

-I mean, dangerous stuff, but...

-Here's a rather elementary question.

0:38:290:38:32

Are the missiles targeted at Russia now?

0:38:320:38:35

We have set an example in the world by not targeting our missiles

0:38:350:38:39

and they are at prolonged notice for fire, but at the moment...

0:38:390:38:42

So they aren't targeted. How long does it take to...

0:38:420:38:45

-As we speak they're not targeted.

-How long would it...

-It can be done very quickly.

0:38:450:38:49

Kishwer.

0:38:490:38:50

The idea that we've given them this very,

0:38:500:38:53

very tight deadline...

0:38:530:38:55

and asked them to come up with

0:38:550:38:58

a humiliating climb-down on the back of this deadline,

0:38:580:39:03

I really wonder whether... now we're talking nuclear weapons.

0:39:030:39:09

I really wonder whether we know what we're doing.

0:39:090:39:12

I don't like it one bit.

0:39:120:39:14

I think somehow we've got to find some face-saving measure

0:39:140:39:18

to extend the deadline.

0:39:180:39:20

-The deadline was dumb...

-Exactly.

-..not to say disastrous.

0:39:200:39:23

We now need to find a way of backing away from it,

0:39:230:39:25

launch a peace proposal, whatever you...publicly, and get some talks going.

0:39:250:39:29

I'm worried about that because I think the signal that that sends

0:39:290:39:32

to Putin is that he has in effect unilateral nuclear deterrence.

0:39:320:39:37

You'd rather have a nuclear exchange?

0:39:380:39:40

But the purpose of showing that

0:39:400:39:42

we are ready for such an exchange is precisely to deter it, whereas

0:39:420:39:47

if you make clear that what you're trying to do is to back away...

0:39:470:39:51

-Ian, you are edging us further and further towards Armageddon.

-Absolutely, we are not getting...

0:39:510:39:55

Putin is edging us further and further towards Armageddon.

0:39:550:39:58

-I mean...

-We have choices. We have choices.

-And so does he.

0:39:580:40:02

We need to exercise those choices,

0:40:020:40:04

and the choices that you're recommending to us just are Armageddon.

0:40:040:40:08

I do believe that the 72-hour deadline must be kept

0:40:100:40:13

and I think we can also say through back channels, "Look, this is all getting very dangerous now.

0:40:130:40:17

"We are actually correcting things in Latvia,

0:40:170:40:20

"let's not let this become anything... We're not attacking Russia..." You know...

0:40:200:40:24

So, specifically and operationally, how do we respond?

0:40:240:40:29

We bring our forces to, erm, 15-minute readiness to fire, which is what it was in the Cold War...

0:40:290:40:33

-And do we tell him we're...

-Yes.

-..we're targeting him?

0:40:330:40:36

And I think probably, and this is why I wanted a debate... I think we should tell him.

0:40:360:40:40

I think we are agreed that there should be an intensive

0:40:400:40:44

diplomatic effort to try

0:40:440:40:46

and bring this thing down from the potential nuclear clouds

0:40:460:40:50

but at the same time we should respond to his nuclear blackmail

0:40:500:40:53

and signal some key things to him, such as the targeting,

0:40:530:40:58

so that he knows that if he's going to do this, we're serious.

0:40:580:41:02

-REPORTER:

-Nato's North Atlantic Council has been meeting

0:41:050:41:08

in closed session for six hours, debating their next steps, now that

0:41:080:41:12

the deadline for Russian withdrawal from Latvia has passed.

0:41:120:41:16

Speaking in Brussels, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel,

0:41:160:41:19

said she believed a negotiated settlement was still possible

0:41:190:41:22

and that she would push for the deadline to be extended.

0:41:220:41:26

-Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

-Good morning.

0:41:270:41:30

For rather obvious reasons Admiral West cannot be with us this morning.

0:41:300:41:35

The German Chancellor is not ready to start an offensive operation.

0:41:350:41:41

And our clear priority has to be in seeking a ceasefire

0:41:410:41:45

and not to escalating this into a Third World War.

0:41:450:41:48

It's not just the Germans, Christopher. I'm afraid I have no good news for you.

0:41:480:41:52

The Belgians, the Danes, the Spanish, the Greeks,

0:41:520:41:55

the Italians, they're all pushing for an extension to the deadline

0:41:550:41:58

and increased diplomatic pressure.

0:41:580:42:00

Let me tell you, if President Putin wanted to test Nato

0:42:000:42:02

and see it fail, I think he's been doing a pretty good job.

0:42:020:42:06

The Joint Chiefs still feel that retaking Daugavpils and the surrounding area would be

0:42:060:42:12

a relatively short campaign, but only if we move right away.

0:42:120:42:16

So right now we are talking about a coalition of the willing.

0:42:160:42:19

So we're looking at the fragmentation of Nato...over this.

0:42:190:42:24

If we do this thing we'll be in the company not only

0:42:240:42:26

of the United States but of France, the three Baltic states and Poland.

0:42:260:42:31

-Is this a workable coalition?

-Very.

-Can this be done?

-Very workable.

0:42:310:42:35

Very workable?

0:42:350:42:36

I would be in favour of joining an American-led

0:42:360:42:39

coalition of the willing.

0:42:390:42:40

I think that joining that coalition

0:42:400:42:42

gives us rights of consultation and of diplomacy.

0:42:420:42:45

In other words, that this is not something where we are

0:42:450:42:48

the passive recipients of orders from elsewhere.

0:42:480:42:51

We should take Chancellor Merkel's idea that the deadline can be extended.

0:42:510:42:54

She has already made it clear that she's unwilling for any military

0:42:540:42:58

force to be used even inside Latvia, which is a fundamental mistake.

0:42:580:43:01

It may have been understandable in the context of Ukraine, it is

0:43:010:43:04

not understandable in the context of a Nato member state.

0:43:040:43:07

-There is only one Western politician whom Putin listens to.

-That's true.

0:43:070:43:11

Give Merkel the right brief, she has a tremendous incentive to try

0:43:110:43:15

and sort out a diplomatic deal.

0:43:150:43:17

But she has no leverage, because she's rejected the leverage.

0:43:170:43:20

No, no, no, but she does this on behalf of the West.

0:43:200:43:23

The point is, back to the two tracks, yes, we go with

0:43:230:43:26

the coalition of the willing but the condition is that there is time...

0:43:260:43:29

-She had leverage in Ukraine.

-If I may, if I may.

-Yeah.

0:43:290:43:32

There is time for Merkel actually to try and sort out another way out.

0:43:320:43:37

Putin is a good Leninist,

0:43:370:43:39

or at least he was before he became an even better capitalist.

0:43:390:43:42

Erm, he knows that if you thrust in the bayonet

0:43:420:43:46

and you meet nothing but mush

0:43:460:43:48

you keep pushing, and what I think he would take from a discussion

0:43:480:43:52

like this is that there's still plenty of mush in the West.

0:43:520:43:55

We can demonstrate that that... ultimatum meant something

0:43:550:44:01

by now starting to ramp up militarily.

0:44:010:44:04

It doesn't mean we have to actually get out our guns

0:44:040:44:07

and point them and start shooting.

0:44:070:44:09

We can build up, as we are doing all these other things that we've talked about at the moment.

0:44:090:44:13

The longer you leave it,

0:44:130:44:14

the more difficult this nut is going to be to crack.

0:44:140:44:17

We've got enough in Latvia from potentially

0:44:170:44:20

Americans, British, French, other Baltic states, ie,

0:44:200:44:25

members of the coalition of the willing. Which...

0:44:250:44:28

And if you've got that, actually,

0:44:280:44:30

you could probably do something like this pretty quickly.

0:44:300:44:33

We'll have a vote now.

0:44:330:44:35

Who agrees with the proposition that we join the American-led coalition?

0:44:350:44:40

Well, this is plus all the diplomacy before it actually...

0:44:400:44:43

-I have already set out...

-OK, on those terms, yes.

-..the package.

0:44:430:44:46

-What's the point of diplomacy if you'd already agreed a position in advance?

-I've set...

0:44:460:44:50

It's what is known in the trade as a twin-track position.

0:44:500:44:53

-This is not twin-track, it's pre-emption.

-By a majority of one, two, three, four, five...

0:44:530:44:58

By a majority of seven to one,

0:44:580:45:00

we are agreed to join the American-led coalition,

0:45:000:45:03

and your objection will be recorded in the minutes of this meeting.

0:45:030:45:07

-REPORTER:

-British and American soldiers launched an offensive

0:45:100:45:13

overnight to retake the city of Daugavpils.

0:45:130:45:16

Several thousand troops are believed to have been involved

0:45:160:45:18

in the operation, which began in the early hours of the morning.

0:45:180:45:22

Just after midnight, the US began a massive

0:45:250:45:28

helicopter deployment in these fields behind me.

0:45:280:45:31

Several thousand Marines then advanced on Daugavpils...

0:45:310:45:35

Coalition forces are in control of central Daugavpils.

0:45:350:45:38

Pro-Russian separatists are believed to have taken heavy casualties.

0:45:390:45:44

On the road to Vandani this morning I saw the bodies

0:45:440:45:47

of two British infantrymen lying where they fell

0:45:470:45:50

when their patrol was ambushed last night.

0:45:500:45:53

The Ministry of Defence has confirmed that four soldiers

0:45:530:45:56

were killed and another two injured in the attack...

0:45:560:45:59

We're getting reports of a possible nuclear explosion in the Baltic Sea.

0:46:130:46:17

Eyewitnesses described a blinding white light.

0:46:170:46:20

The Iskander nuclear warhead appears to have been detonated

0:46:200:46:23

nearly a kilometre in the air above HMS Ocean and USS America.

0:46:230:46:28

Both ships would have been devastated immediately

0:46:280:46:31

by the fireball from the blast.

0:46:310:46:34

Over 800 Royal Marines

0:46:340:46:36

and nearly 400 crew are believed to have been killed.

0:46:360:46:39

This was an unintended strike.

0:46:430:46:46

The commander exceeded his authority and will be dealt with.

0:46:460:46:50

President Putin would like to convey to the UK that Russia does not

0:46:500:46:54

want a nuclear war.

0:46:540:46:56

All tactical and strategic weapons have been

0:46:570:47:01

taken off the highest state of readiness.

0:47:010:47:04

He deeply regrets the loss of life on boats of the naval group.

0:47:040:47:09

Grigori, thank you for passing us that message,

0:47:110:47:14

thank you for your condolences.

0:47:140:47:16

This is something we will need to discuss.

0:47:160:47:19

Clearly this is a very grave situation.

0:47:190:47:23

There's been significant, massive loss of American and British lives.

0:47:230:47:28

And...the world teeters on the edge of nuclear war here.

0:47:280:47:33

The question here is whether we take this apology seriously.

0:47:330:47:36

I think the message is, "Please don't retaliate." Erm...

0:47:360:47:40

So I think that they are trying to stop us doing that. I think my...

0:47:400:47:44

-Do you think it's a mistake?

-I'm not sure I'm really interested in that.

0:47:440:47:48

I don't rule it out, but I do think the fact that they're making...

0:47:480:47:51

they've decided to play it like this,

0:47:510:47:53

which is in itself pretty humiliating, erm, tells me

0:47:530:47:56

something about their desire not to see, you know, the world go up.

0:47:560:48:01

-Escalation.

-Taking them to a lower stage of readiness.

-Yes.

0:48:010:48:04

I think we need some verification of that. Erm...

0:48:040:48:07

I would be inclined to say that we should

0:48:070:48:09

continue our operations on the ground,

0:48:090:48:11

and I think that that's the important thing to do,

0:48:110:48:14

and I think I'm rather attracted by the idea

0:48:140:48:16

that for the moment we actually keep

0:48:160:48:18

our political and diplomatic powder dry and get on with our operation.

0:48:180:48:22

Our objective is to get the Russians out of Latvia.

0:48:220:48:26

You're going to have the Sun and the Daily Mail saying,

0:48:260:48:28

"We have let him get away with the murder of

0:48:280:48:30

"1,200 British servicemen, why aren't we doing something about it?"

0:48:300:48:34

And what are we going to say? So how do you deal with that?

0:48:340:48:36

This is why the threat, a public threat of a retaliation if anything else happens,

0:48:360:48:40

it's one of the reasons why it's important.

0:48:400:48:42

There's going to be a lot of people out there thinking the world could end tonight or tomorrow.

0:48:420:48:47

No, I think that's dangerous.

0:48:470:48:49

That we say to them that we've notched up our alerts and that

0:48:490:48:54

if anything more happens we will engage in a retalia... retaliatory strike.

0:48:540:48:59

They've said they made a mistake.

0:48:590:49:02

It's the miscalculation we've been talking about for weeks in this room.

0:49:020:49:05

I certainly don't think we need to be saying now that

0:49:050:49:08

"If you ever do this again we're standing by right...ready to respond."

0:49:080:49:12

-Well, how many more rogue commanders has he got?

-Hold on. Kishwer, hold on.

0:49:120:49:16

-Laurel, hi, how are you?

-Yeah, hi.

0:49:160:49:18

I need to tell you that after much thought the President has

0:49:180:49:21

come down on the side of a like-for-like, er,

0:49:210:49:25

limited nuclear strike on a purely military target.

0:49:250:49:30

And we're wondering what you feel about that.

0:49:300:49:33

-I need to go back to the group and discuss this.

-OK.

0:49:330:49:37

-Thank you very much.

-Thank you.

0:49:370:49:39

-I think we should do everything we can to discourage the Americans from a like-to-like...

-Yes.

0:49:390:49:43

Is that the view of all?

0:49:430:49:45

This gives us the opportunity to say to the Russians,

0:49:450:49:47

"If you mean this, march out of Latvia now.

0:49:470:49:50

"Drop your flags and you raise the white flag and get out of Latvia."

0:49:500:49:53

-Well, I think we shouldn't go that far...

-That doesn't give them a chance to climb down.

0:49:530:49:57

Well, verify nuclear weapons,

0:49:570:49:59

UN inspectors to look at all your nuclear weapons sites,

0:49:590:50:02

and meanwhile we want an unconditional guarantee that

0:50:020:50:07

you will not threaten your neighbours' territorial integrity.

0:50:070:50:10

I think we have to threaten a retaliation if this happens again.

0:50:100:50:14

If we approach this as a situation in which President Putin has

0:50:140:50:17

to be humiliated and people have to start waving white flags,

0:50:170:50:21

I think we will not get out...

0:50:210:50:22

we will just end up killing ourselves and killing each other.

0:50:220:50:26

-We have to give them a way out.

-Pauline, you agree with this?

0:50:260:50:30

Are you in the like-for-like camp?

0:50:300:50:32

I'm very uneasy about it, I must admit.

0:50:320:50:34

However, I think that, erm, our...threat to take action,

0:50:340:50:39

you know, does have to have some credibility about it,

0:50:390:50:42

so we do need to be prepared to strike.

0:50:420:50:46

But I must say, I would in this instance argue with the Americans a bit first.

0:50:460:50:50

Well, I think it would be grossly impertinent of us,

0:50:500:50:53

they having lost a ship themselves,

0:50:530:50:55

to tell the Americans not to do what they appear to be...

0:50:550:50:58

Well, we, too, have lost a ship.

0:50:580:51:00

We have lost a ship but we can make our decision

0:51:000:51:03

but I think the United States is entitled to make their decision.

0:51:030:51:06

But I would agree with what the General says, that the proof

0:51:060:51:10

of what the Russians are saying is to be seen in

0:51:100:51:14

whether they now withdraw from Latvia.

0:51:140:51:17

If they do not it's clearly more Maskirovka,

0:51:170:51:21

and then I think all bets are off and I think we really

0:51:210:51:24

should be ready for an imminent nuclear strike.

0:51:240:51:28

I thought, a couple of sessions ago, when we agreed that we would...

0:51:280:51:32

when the rest of you agreed to support the Americans, I thought

0:51:320:51:35

the tone of the meeting was that we have to be equal partners.

0:51:350:51:39

We have to actually be there being listened to rather than just

0:51:390:51:42

being their poodles.

0:51:420:51:44

Yet now we're being told that we're being impertinent.

0:51:440:51:48

-Well, excuse me... That was James's word.

-I think the British public would be quite shocked at the idea

0:51:480:51:52

that we might be impertinent in asking the Americans to hold back.

0:51:520:51:55

I don't think we should get personal with...

0:51:550:51:57

-We must recognise that the Americans may choose to take their own decision.

-Precisely.

-Yeah.

0:51:570:52:01

Well, I think it is perfectly possible for the Russians to

0:52:010:52:04

continue to fight in Latvia while sincerely regretting the fact

0:52:040:52:08

that a nuclear weapon has been launched.

0:52:080:52:11

-Possibly, but they have to do something to make amends.

-Yes.

0:52:110:52:14

I mean, for Putin actually to apologise,

0:52:140:52:17

that's not something that he needs to do

0:52:170:52:19

if he's using a nuclear weapon deliberately,

0:52:190:52:22

and therefore I think it would be a big mistake for the Americans

0:52:220:52:26

to launch a like-for-like strike, because actually that would then

0:52:260:52:29

-tend to feed the logic of escalation again.

-It wipes out...

0:52:290:52:33

It wipes out the fact that he's gone beyond the rules,

0:52:330:52:36

if you see what I mean, if we do retaliate straightaway, I think.

0:52:360:52:39

-Yep.

-It doesn't matter if Putin is lying. It doesn't matter at all.

-No, I'm not interested in that.

0:52:390:52:43

What matters is how we proceed from this situation in the way

0:52:430:52:46

that best protects the British people and British interests.

0:52:460:52:49

In a sense I'm with Tony here, that it's what we can now...

0:52:490:52:52

to avoid the worst possible case of mutually assured destruction,

0:52:520:52:57

but on the other hand to demonstrate strength,

0:52:570:53:00

which is why I come back to unconditional surrender in Latvia.

0:53:000:53:03

-You can't have that.

-Why?

-Unconditional surrender is...is...

0:53:030:53:06

We can't use that kind of phraseology,

0:53:060:53:08

-the entire room is against that.

-All right... Whatever.

0:53:080:53:11

Let's get the Russians to march out of Latvia

0:53:110:53:14

and...be under no illusions that the threat of...

0:53:140:53:19

-We will press the button if there's any sort of hint of a repeat.

-Right.

0:53:190:53:23

So I would now conclude that the sense of this meeting

0:53:230:53:26

is that we are not with the Americans on like-for-like response,

0:53:260:53:31

that we continue with our ground offensive in Latvia

0:53:310:53:35

to get Russian troops out, that we say to the Russians,

0:53:350:53:39

"Be in no doubt at all, if this happens again we will retaliate massively."

0:53:390:53:45

The...Americans have decided not to take our advice

0:54:040:54:10

and have used a tactical nuclear weapon

0:54:100:54:13

to take out a target in Russia.

0:54:130:54:17

Russian nuclear ICBMs are being readied for launch.

0:54:200:54:26

If they launch, we will have just a few minutes to make a decision.

0:54:270:54:33

Assuming that one or more of these missiles is targeted at London.

0:54:340:54:39

And that decision will be, do we fire back?

0:54:390:54:42

Or, more precisely,

0:54:440:54:45

what...are the instructions that we give to our Trident commanders?

0:54:450:54:52

General.

0:54:550:54:57

Well, the military... advice can only be that...

0:54:580:55:03

..er...to ready the Tridents, to...to

0:55:050:55:09

reduce the notice to move, and to implement targeting procedures

0:55:090:55:16

should the order, should the political order be to fire.

0:55:160:55:19

I think we should publicly reiterate that our weapons are ready

0:55:190:55:22

-for use and that they are targeted.

-Yeah.

0:55:220:55:25

I'm going to go round the room one by one on this,

0:55:250:55:28

that if we get confirmation that they are launched

0:55:280:55:31

and are targeted at London, do we say fire or do we say don't fire?

0:55:310:55:38

I say don't fire.

0:55:410:55:42

I would say fire.

0:55:440:55:46

Well, the targeting that the UK chooses is military installations,

0:55:470:55:51

it does not choose populations. I say fire.

0:55:510:55:54

No. No, absolutely not.

0:55:540:55:55

The whole point of having continuous at-sea deterrence is that

0:55:550:55:58

we're not vulnerable. We've got a guaranteed second-strike capability.

0:55:580:56:02

But if first strike is heading towards centres of population in the UK...

0:56:020:56:06

And a decision to fire missiles from Trident submarines

0:56:060:56:09

in the Atlantic, whether it's before or after,

0:56:090:56:11

is not going to save those population centres.

0:56:110:56:13

My answer to that question is no.

0:56:130:56:15

No. Right. James.

0:56:150:56:17

My answer to "do we retaliate" is yes.

0:56:190:56:23

Given the...whole concept of deterrence,

0:56:230:56:26

nuclear deterrence, is founded on the fear of retaliation, I think

0:56:260:56:31

we certainly have to...give all the signals that we would retaliate.

0:56:310:56:37

-You're dodging the question, actually.

-I am. I am.

0:56:370:56:39

-Can you give...

-Because it's too horrible to contemplate.

0:56:390:56:41

-Is it too difficult...

-And for weeks I've tried to say

0:56:410:56:44

-this is where we would end up, so I am...

-I need your answer.

-So...

0:56:440:56:47

-I think deterrence...

-I need to... I need to press you.

0:56:470:56:50

OK, deterrence is based on a realistic pledge to retaliate.

0:56:500:56:55

And so you would retaliate?

0:56:550:56:57

I leave it at that.

0:56:580:57:00

On the assumption that that deterrence has failed,

0:57:000:57:02

on the assumption that millions of Brits are about to die,

0:57:020:57:06

the choice that faces the British government is, do we pointlessly

0:57:060:57:11

kill millions of Russians, our weapons having failed, or not?

0:57:110:57:16

And the answer... In my mind, that's a no-brainer - you don't.

0:57:160:57:20

-Pauline has confirmed that our missiles are not aimed at population centres.

-Well, that's...

0:57:200:57:24

They're aimed at military targets.

0:57:240:57:25

I'm happy to take out a few tens of thousands of Russians but

0:57:250:57:29

if we're talking about a massive Trident response, for no reason,

0:57:290:57:34

given that we've failed to deter, then you don't do it.

0:57:340:57:37

I'm not sure I can decide to use it without knowing that...

0:57:370:57:41

-It's actually landed.

-..it's actually landed.

-Can we have a yes or a no?

0:57:410:57:44

Not until it landed.

0:57:440:57:46

Who is in favour of giving instructions

0:57:470:57:50

to our Trident commanders to fire, if launch is confirmed?

0:57:500:57:54

Who would vote yes to instruct the Trident to fire?

0:57:540:57:57

Three in favour.

0:58:040:58:05

Who is in favour of NOT instructing the commanders to fire?

0:58:070:58:12

Then the noes have it.

0:58:180:58:20

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