15/08/2016 BBC Business Live


15/08/2016

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This is Business Live from BBC News with Aaron Heslehurst

:00:00.:00:07.

Stagnation in the world's third largest economy -

:00:08.:00:12.

but what can be done to get Japan moving again?

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Live from London, that's our top story.

:00:17.:00:35.

Japan's latest growth numbers are weaker than expected -

:00:36.:00:41.

the Prime Minister's economic plan is put into question once again.

:00:42.:00:46.

Middle-class binge drinkers are responsible for a 'boom'

:00:47.:00:52.

And we will show you the markets, Asia is having a nice time at the

:00:53.:01:08.

moment. Still camped in those one year highs.

:01:09.:01:10.

We'll be talking to a woman who is living proof that an abrupt

:01:11.:01:13.

switch in career can be a recipe for success.

:01:14.:01:16.

The boss of Propercorn will be here to explain how she's making

:01:17.:01:20.

Today we want to know when it's time for a snack -

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We will talk about the middle-class binge drinking... Sally cannot help

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herself! We start with Japan,

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where it's been another very tough quarter for the country's economy -

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it saw a smidgen of growth in the three months to the end

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of June, leading to some economists questioning the Prime Minister's

:02:02.:02:06.

aggressive economic policies Let's look at the steps

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the government has taken The growth figures were weaker

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than expected at 0.2% - most economists predicted growth

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would be something closer to 0.7%. The central bank has flooded

:02:27.:02:33.

the financial system Government spending has been boosted

:02:34.:02:37.

to try to stimulate growth. Earlier this month Shinzo Abe

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unveiled a stimulus package the government valued

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at $274 billion. And deflation remains

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a huge problem. Exports are also under pressure due

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to the strong yen. That is seen as a safe haven around

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the world so when investors worry they put money into the yen and that

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pushes the value up which makes Japanese manufactured stuff more

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expensive to buy around the world, so we buy less of it and that hits

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the bottom line in Japan. Jonathan Allum, strategist at SMBC

:03:31.:03:33.

Nikko Capital Markets, is with me. I feel like we have been talking

:03:34.:03:46.

about this for years. Things have not improve significantly despite

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the efforts of the Japanese government? That there's a fair

:03:50.:03:53.

point although we must be wary, these are preliminary GDP figures

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which are revised extensively, the last quarter has been revised up

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marginally, particularly the corporate capital expenditure number

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which is surprisingly negative in this and that will be revised up

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with the subsequent survey so we should not be definitive. The

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numbers are certainly below expectation and they have shown

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little to no growth and that is a fair point. We have been in this

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place for a long time, Shinzo Abe has been in power for a significant

:04:24.:04:26.

amount of time and many have argued in the past prior to his Premiership

:04:27.:04:31.

that part of the problem was the political change all the time, the

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leader could not push through difficult decisions and change but

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Abenomics has been in place for a while, in power for some time, when

:04:41.:04:46.

will we see real change? He has been in power for some time and if you

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look at the famous three arrows which he talked about, the first was

:04:50.:04:54.

monitoring all of the that has happened, Japanese inflation numbers

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are not spectacular but if you look at the GDP, it is positive. The

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trend has been positive. Slower than desired but Japanese inflation has

:05:05.:05:07.

risen at a time when in other countries that has fallen. The real

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problem is that fiscal policy and rather than being stimulate his it

:05:12.:05:16.

has been contractionary because of the increase in the consumption tax

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and what we are not seeing in these figures is a change in policy with

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the consumption tax increase scheduled for 2017 kicked into the

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long grass and becomes expansionary. Not as much as the numbers you say,

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it is a bit like Gordon Brown, they have a tendency to re-announce

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more than once for a higher headline more than once for a higher headline

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number but we have seen a change in fiscal policy but that is too late

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for these numbers and that is a question for next year. They are

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telling me briefly but this is not a brief question, a lot of experts say

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the problem with Japan as they will not change, you can throw the

:06:00.:06:02.

kitchen sink at the Japanese economy but until you do structural economic

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reform nothing will change. Japan has an ageing population and is not

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really like immigration and they haven't got workers, workers who

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must put into the economy to pay for the old people? The success of

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Abenomics is the increase in employment, particularly female

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employment and until the last few months, we have seen an increase in

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male unemployment also but overall Japan has added more than 1 million

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jobs over the last three years so that is, it is not dramatic headline

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stuff but it has been a reverse of the previous trend. Particularly

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female employment. But you're right, the proposition is contracting, the

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fertility rate is rising and that is not necessarily unknown thing but

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that is. The standards of age is very respectable but that is longer

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term. We will talk about this again! It is good to see you. Another 25

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years! Don't live that long! We have more positive news!

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The International Monetary Fund has urged China to reduce its reliance

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China's non-financial state-owned enterprises accounted for half

:07:13.:07:15.

of bank credit but only a fifth of industrial

:07:16.:07:19.

The report reflected views provided by Chinese policymakers who agreed

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with the IMF that corporate debt had increased "excessively".

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London properties are taking longer to sell this month,

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And of course it is uncertainty over what Brexit will bring

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On average sellers cut prices by 3.6% from July to $1 million.

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It leaves London up 2.1% on the year, the slowest

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It matters if you want to sell your house. Let us look at the Business

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Live page. The middle of August and you can tell that there is not a lot

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of corporate news. It is very quiet and people are on holiday but the

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boss of delivery was on BBC Radio 4 this morning, the radio programme.

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-- Deliveroo- basically being grilled about what delivery workers

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are being paid. You see them on their bicycles and many other cities

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across the UK and the boss of Deliveroo says they are paid

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perfectly well and he is talking about proposals to changes in what

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they are paid. 3.75 for every delivery, that is not a lot. In

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Singapore there are separating the gold medal in the Olympics! Did you

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see that? Amazing! But consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest

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level for seven years. You cannot say that is Brexit over there!

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Despite the jubilation, there is pessimism, the consumer index said

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Singapore is most pessimistic about the economy in seven years. They

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have become more gloomy about their quality of life, their income and

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also job security and the index fell to 33.6 in the first half of the

:09:42.:09:46.

year compared to 44.3 for the previous six months and the last

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time the index was that low was June 2009 and that was at the height of

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the global recession. When the economy in Singapore contracted for

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four straight quarters. This dip in confidence is reflected in economic

:10:01.:10:06.

data. Analysts are forecasting the Singapore economy to grow by 1.8%.

:10:07.:10:11.

This year. That is the slowest pace since 2009. Hopefully it will get

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some or all winners and have something more to celebrate over

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here. Good on you! As one Australian says to the other. We come about

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ninth place on the chart! Let us look at the markets...

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Asian shares set up camp at one-year peaks today as a rally in Chinese

:10:33.:10:36.

stocks helped offset news that Japan's economic growth had ground

:10:37.:10:39.

Oil prices extended their latest rally.

:10:40.:10:50.

In Europe, markets also digesting not great news

:10:51.:10:54.

US retail sales were unexpectedly flat in July -

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Americans cut back on purchases of clothing and other goods.

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Other data showed producer prices recorded their biggest drop

:11:08.:11:09.

But talking of the US - let's find out what will be making

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the headlines on that side of the Atlantic.

:11:26.:11:27.

Final bids for the digital media company gawker are due ahead of the

:11:28.:11:36.

auction on Tuesday, a banker managing the bankruptcy process and

:11:37.:11:41.

sales said as 20 parties could make offers. Gawker recently lost the

:11:42.:11:46.

invasion of privacy lawsuit brought by the former wrestler Hulk Hogan

:11:47.:11:52.

and was ordered to pay damages of $130 million. Gawker is appealing

:11:53.:11:56.

the decision and filing from bankruptcy to continue operating and

:11:57.:11:59.

paying its staff while it seeks to overturn the lawsuit. In election

:12:00.:12:05.

years, the Vice President Joe Biden will campaign with Democratic

:12:06.:12:07.

Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania on Monday. They will

:12:08.:12:14.

focus on economic issues, Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump

:12:15.:12:18.

begins fighting a lawsuit in Florida over denying refunds on Jews to

:12:19.:12:22.

members at the John Nash on a golf course. -- dues.

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We have Justin Urquhart-Stewart from Seven Investment Management.

:12:28.:12:33.

Happy new week! And you are not on holiday? I was working last week.

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We're not even going there! Working with a trowel?! US inflation this

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big? This is crucial, everybody depends on the central bank at the

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moment, it is pumping money into the system, that is what we saw from the

:12:59.:13:02.

Bank of England and one of the key targets is about inflation, keep it

:13:03.:13:08.

low. Look at these figures, the core inflation in the UK is about 1.4%,

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commodity prices are rising, oil, there is inflation in the system to

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the question over the next few months is, will central bankers

:13:20.:13:24.

focus on inflation in two years? You might want to put up the rates will

:13:25.:13:28.

you worry about growth in the economy, still weak, this is a big

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decision and my prediction is it will focus on growth and not

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inflation. Those figures will be crucial on Wednesday, Thursday is

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consumer confidence figures and by the end of this week we should have

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a better sense of how the economy is faring post Brexit? And the way to

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look at this is by looking at the bigger picture, the global economy

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is growing at just over 3% every year and the headline say it is

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getting slower, that is the long-term average, that is OK, US

:13:59.:14:04.

figures are not that bad, Friday was not strong but OK, Eurozone has been

:14:05.:14:08.

slower but still OK and as we have seen in the Far East and emerging

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economies, they are also picking up. The UK has its own issues with

:14:14.:14:16.

Brexit but we don't want to talk ourselves into this, the rest of the

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world is doing well. Join the dots. I'm glad that you have said that, we

:14:19.:14:27.

don't want to talk ourselves into recession. Digging fossils...? We

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don't anybody to get the wrong impression. The Romans had a single

:14:34.:14:38.

currency. They were talking about gardening in my ear, Norman

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gardening... The man is digging up bones! LAUGHTER

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Coins! Still to come, Monday, so there is a fair chance that some of

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us... Dreaming of chucking in the nine to five job, and starting your

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own adventure. Stay tuned, you can meet someone who did just that, and

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made a big success. Industries and businesses

:14:59.:15:14.

across the UK are considering life after Brexit and, from today,

:15:15.:15:17.

farmers will have their say. The National Farmers Union

:15:18.:15:19.

is launching a consultation on the future of

:15:20.:15:21.

post-Brexit farming. Joining us to discuss

:15:22.:15:23.

the topic is the president Welcome to the programme, great to

:15:24.:15:41.

have you with us. Good morning. In terms of farming, most farmers,

:15:42.:15:46.

would they be remain of with baby in favour of Brexit? The debate around

:15:47.:15:51.

the referendum, now we look forward, so we will be consulting with 48,000

:15:52.:15:55.

farm members over the next six weeks. Trade deals, access to

:15:56.:16:07.

labour, they will all be so important, post-20 20. We will put

:16:08.:16:11.

together a policy document after hearing the views, and then we will

:16:12.:16:15.

ask for a framework which will deliver a domestic agricultural

:16:16.:16:17.

policy which is fit for purpose and will lead to a proper competitive

:16:18.:16:26.

farming industry post-20 20. -- post 2020. When I spoke with you earlier,

:16:27.:16:30.

you said that your members were mixed in terms of how they would

:16:31.:16:33.

vote, regardless of that, all farmers in UK received a nice

:16:34.:16:40.

subsidy from the EU at the moment. Assuming that part of your

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consultation will be that that must be replaced. What we have said at

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the NFU, when the policies designed post 2020, we must not be

:16:54.:16:56.

disadvantaged to competitors in the rest of Europe, we still have to

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compete with Irish, southern Irish, French, Danish farmers. We must not

:17:01.:17:06.

be disadvantaged if we are going to build that competitive, efficient,

:17:07.:17:10.

profitable industry going forward. We know that our self-sufficiency in

:17:11.:17:14.

food has fallen dramatically over the last 20 years, we must be

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ambitious, we must reverse the trend, because British consumers

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want more British food on their plates. Unfortunately, we have run

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out of time, but president of the national farmers union, we

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appreciate your comments, and we will keep an eye on the paper when

:17:30.:17:31.

it comes out. Back in the headlines, Peppa Pig, there was the failed ITV

:17:32.:17:40.

takeover, some say that it is going to be the target of private equity,

:17:41.:17:46.

a lot of people pouring into it, it is called Entertainment One. Top

:17:47.:17:52.

story: Japan, the world is third-largest economy, grew this

:17:53.:17:58.

much. 0.2 of a percent. We called it a smidgen!

:17:59.:18:10.

If you are in Japan, watching, can you tell us how you say kitchen

:18:11.:18:16.

sink. A quick look at the financial markets on a new trading week, they

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are all up slightly, nothing to shout about, London down just a

:18:22.:18:31.

point, 0.1 of a percent. -- zero .01 of a percent. Most traders in the

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City of London and other financial markets around the world, they are

:18:38.:18:42.

all on the French Riviera, on their boats, the big flashy ones. Talking

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of big flashy boats, maybe one day! This is the stuff of a Monday

:18:48.:18:51.

daydream, chucking in the job, marching to the boss 's office, tell

:18:52.:18:55.

him or her that you have had enough of slaving for someone else and that

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he will be starting your own business. For most of us, it remains

:18:59.:19:11.

a fantasy. But our next guest shows how an abrupt career change really

:19:12.:19:17.

can pay off, in spades. Cassandra Stavrou quit her job in 2009 and

:19:18.:19:19.

launched Propercorn Popcorn two years later at the height of the

:19:20.:19:24.

economic crisis. Good timing(!) But she was entering a market growing in

:19:25.:19:27.

popularity, healthy snacks. In just five years, Cassandra and her

:19:28.:19:36.

business partner have managed to establish a company which sells

:19:37.:19:38.

three million packs of popcorn a month, generating almost 13 million

:19:39.:19:40.

dollars in sales a year. Available in ten countries across Europe, the

:19:41.:19:42.

business has emerged as the fastest non-tech start-up in the UK. That is

:19:43.:19:49.

right. You have hurt, in the house with us, Cassandra, the first

:19:50.:19:55.

question, why popcorn? You have said it, it is a healthy snack,

:19:56.:20:01.

gluten-free, played into all of the big... This is very noisy! If you

:20:02.:20:06.

don't mind me saying. Everybody understands what popcorn is, we all

:20:07.:20:10.

have that nostalgia, this is about doing it in a slightly different

:20:11.:20:16.

way, more healthy, it is an amazing journey. Popcorn is very popular in

:20:17.:20:21.

our fire sale, we had it last night. I have three small boys. They want

:20:22.:20:26.

to snack a lot. -- in our household. When I go in the supermarket, I

:20:27.:20:32.

don't necessarily pick yours, I will look at price... I shan't take it

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personally! Price is important, there are so many options. Crowded

:20:38.:20:41.

market. It is, what is exciting about the story is, from a standing

:20:42.:20:45.

start we have really clicked on ahead of the competition,

:20:46.:20:51.

fastest-growing brand in the UK, that is a testament to the

:20:52.:20:55.

packaging, the fact that we are healthier, and... I did not know

:20:56.:20:59.

that you were healthier, that is important to me, I am looking for

:21:00.:21:04.

healthier options. There is the calorie count on the front, 130

:21:05.:21:11.

calories, and also, increasingly customers becoming aware of popcorn

:21:12.:21:16.

away from cinema, away from film and the buttery sugary versions. This is

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completely natural. Cassandra, we have this fun about saying it is a

:21:26.:21:29.

Monday and we want to quit our jobs, did you have this idea before you

:21:30.:21:33.

quit your job, did you hate your job and wants to quit? This is not easy

:21:34.:21:37.

to say. Whatever you are making, not easy to do. It took two years to get

:21:38.:21:43.

it off the ground, and I think, perhaps naively I quit my job as

:21:44.:21:47.

soon as I had the idea, it is was passionate about it! Trying to get a

:21:48.:21:52.

business of the ground, it takes a lot of hard work, being quite

:21:53.:21:56.

resourceful, the initial samples I made in a cement mixer! Nobody in

:21:57.:22:01.

the UK could season popcorn in the way that I wanted it to be seasoned.

:22:02.:22:06.

Don't let that put you off! LAUGHTER Not anymore they are not! We

:22:07.:22:11.

fashioned it with steel, on top gear, I saw the way that they spray

:22:12.:22:15.

paint cars, they use a special Mr, and so we ordered a kit off-line. I

:22:16.:22:20.

was making it very crudely, now we have a shiny all singing all dancing

:22:21.:22:27.

line. -- Mr. And all health and all safety as well, I am sure! You have

:22:28.:22:32.

got to be prepared to take a punt, and really go for it. How do you

:22:33.:22:37.

fund it, you have got to have a lot of resources yourself, how did you

:22:38.:22:44.

get people involved? I was lucky that my family lived in London, I

:22:45.:22:50.

moved back home and I did jobs, walking dogs, painting, whatever I

:22:51.:22:54.

could get my hands on, to fund the initial first steps. And then we got

:22:55.:22:59.

a little bit of seed investment from my business partner's family, to

:23:00.:23:03.

launch, but it really was just a case of going for it. Now you are in

:23:04.:23:08.

most of the main supermarkets in the UK, we have talked about your

:23:09.:23:12.

massive sales numbers, how did you manage to get it into the main

:23:13.:23:18.

marketplace? No set recipe, it is a case of calling up and turning up to

:23:19.:23:22.

everywhere you possibly can, leaving no stone unturned, at Tesco we are

:23:23.:23:27.

now the number six bestselling snack in their whole category. If you had

:23:28.:23:32.

told me that when we first launched, it would have surprised me. It is a

:23:33.:23:39.

testament to the traction of the product, and how people find it.

:23:40.:23:43.

They love it, thank you very much joining us. They are going to watch

:23:44.:23:49.

a tape of how to contact us, you told me you are great at catching

:23:50.:23:53.

popcorn, come on, near we go... ! LAUGHTER

:23:54.:23:59.

Stay ahead with all the days breaking news, we keep you

:24:00.:24:04.

up-to-date with all the latest details with insight and analysis

:24:05.:24:10.

for the BBC's team of editors around the world, and we want to hear from

:24:11.:24:13.

you as well. Get involved on the web page. On Twitter, and also on

:24:14.:24:20.

Facebook. Just in his back with us, we have

:24:21.:24:33.

talked popcorn, now we are talking about a story in the Telegraph,

:24:34.:24:38.

middle-class binge drinking creates boom in sales of giant bottles of

:24:39.:24:41.

bubbly, this is not my own consumption! Talk us through what

:24:42.:24:46.

this story is about. It is fascinating, not just buying more

:24:47.:24:51.

bubbly, but buying a big butch bottle... Showing off. The figures

:24:52.:24:59.

here go back to 2014, just under 300,000 Magnas, now it is over

:25:00.:25:05.

700,000! We have suddenly... Showing off my thing. -- magnas. but you can

:25:06.:25:15.

have a nebuchadnezzar, 15 litres at one sitting, if you so wish! --

:25:16.:25:24.

magnums. not so much champagne but per second, they have opened it up

:25:25.:25:30.

to large serve bottles. in a word, your favourite snack? caviar, dare i

:25:31.:25:36.

say that? laughter just in! caviar! Some people say

:25:37.:25:45.

please, fruit, chips... Joe says his favourite is mini popcorn! There you

:25:46.:25:49.

go. Just in, thank you. That was businesslike, have a very good day,

:25:50.:25:53.

we will see you tomorrow, thank you very much.

:25:54.:26:12.

Thus far the summer has misfired, a bit stop and start, now

:26:13.:26:14.

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